RWSN 2014 Webinars (Sept Dec) - · PDF fileUPGro – Africa Groundwater Research Rainwater...
Transcript of RWSN 2014 Webinars (Sept Dec) - · PDF fileUPGro – Africa Groundwater Research Rainwater...
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UPGro – Africa Groundwater Research
Rainwater Harvesting
Water Point Mapping
RWSN 2014 Webinars
(Sept – Dec)
A series of webinars in English and in
English/French
23rd September – 9th December 2014
Register on: http://tinyurl.com/RWSN2014
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Webinar 9 – Groundwater Research 25th November 2014
Groundwater Quality
• Groundwater safe-sourcing and fluoride mitigation, Oromia, Ethiopian Rift Valley - Pauline Smedley
• Domestic groundwater safety in Kisumu, Kenya: past, present and future – Jim Wright
• Discussant – Robert Hope
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DOMESTIC GROUNDWATER
SAFETY IN KISUMU, KENYA:
PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE
Dr. Jim Wright (University of Southampton)
On behalf of:
Joseph Okotto-Okotto (Victoria Institute for Research on Environment & Development International)
Dr. Lorna Grace Okotto (Jaramogi Oginga Odinga University of Science & Technology)
Dr. Heather Price (University of Southampton)
Dr. Steve Pedley (University of Surrey)
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background
• Urban population increase to 1.2 billion by 2050 in sub-
Saharan Africa
• Piped utility water coverage lags behind growth
• Groundwater used in informal settlements to supplement
piped water
• Contamination risks, e.g. from onsite sanitation
• Effect on surrounding rural areas, small towns?
• How does urban growth affect groundwater safety and
quality?
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Objectives & study site
• Objectives
• How have groundwater contamination risks changed in response to
urbanisation?
• How has water quality changed in response to urbanisation?
• What might urban groundwater use look like by 2030?
• Case study sites:
• Kisumu, Kenya (population of 259,258 in 2009)
• Manyatta A and Migosi informal settlements
• >39% and >24% of households using hand-dug wells in 2009
• 95% and 67% onsite sanitation in 2009
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Methods: past groundwater safety
• Historic projects • VIRED International
• University of Surrey
• 1999: Map of wells, buildings & sanitation
• 2002-04: sanitary risk inspection & water quality testing of 51 sample wells, e.g. • Thermotolerant coliforms
• Nitrate
• Chloride
• Electro-conductivity
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Methods: present groundwater safety
• Transect survey
• 0.1 x 2.4km & 0.1x
1.7km random transects
• Record wells, pit latrines
• Buildings map:
• Satellite imagery
interpretation
• sample survey of wells
• Sanitary risk inspection
• Water quality testing
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Methods: future groundwater safety
• Expert panel, July 2014
• Presentations, e.g.
• Current situation
• Water utility
• International Futures
software
• Mapping 2030 patterns :
• Sanitation access
• Domestic water access
• Population density
• 3 groups
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Results: changes in built environment Building density, 1999 Building density, 2013
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Results: changes in built environment
2004 2013
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Results: changes in built environment
2004 2013
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Results: changes in built environment
Transect survey: hand-dug wells Transect survey: pit latrines
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1999 and2014
1999 only 2014 only
No
. o
f w
ell
s
Migosi
Manyatta A
0
50
100
150
200
250
1999 and2014
1999 only 2014 only
No
. o
f p
it l
atr
ine
s
Migosi
Manyatta A
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Results: changes in built environment
• Significant increase in risk [Wilcoxon signed-rank test p =
.048, z = 1.98]
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2014 2002-04
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Results: groundwater quality changes
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Wilcoxon signed-rank
test, z = -3.296, p = .001
Wilcoxon signed-rank
test, z = -1.7, p = .097
2014 2004
2014 2002-04
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Results: groundwater quality changes
Predictor of nitrate Coefficient standard error T statistic P>t
Sanitary risk % 0.11 0.05 2.17 0.04
Mean daily rainfall on
day & preceding 3
days(mm)
1.41
0.36 3.95
0.00
Baseline measurement
– both sites (binary) -12.80
4.11 -3.12 0.00
Baseline measurement
from Manyatta (binary) 29.87
3.20 9.33 0.00
Constant -5.60 4.17 -1.34 0.18
• Linear regression predicting nitrate as N (n=58; adjusted R2 = 0.78) – 2004 and 2014
• More nuanced picture after accounting for rainfall
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Results: future domestic water use
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Discussion:
• Changes from 1999 to 2014:
• Groundwater use remained significant alongside onsite sanitation
• Contamination risks have intensified
• Contradictory water quality results – rainfall?
• Changes from 2014 to 2030:
• Domestic urban groundwater use continues as part of supply mix
• More certainty about future of high income areas
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Conclusions & Implications
• Urban growth and groundwater safety:
• Exacerbated contamination risk in established urban
neighbourhoods
• Effects more pronounced in small towns, peri-urban areas?
• Where are areas with groundwater for domestic use:
• Vulnerable to contamination now?
• Vulnerable to contamination by 2030?
• Approaches for managing urban safety:
• Adapt sanitary risk form for expanding urban areas?
• More evidence on source protection
• Regulation and governance, e.g. vended groundwater
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RWSN’s Groundwater Community: https://dgroups.org/RWSN/groundwater