SCCD : G.G.

AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT FUND

THIS REPORT HAS BEEN PRODUCED

FOR THE EXCLUSIVE USE OF THE BANK

OPERATIONS EVALUATION DEPARTMENT

ADB/ADF/OPEV/2002/04 JULY 2002 Original: French Distribution: Limited

RWANDA

EVALUATION OF BANK ASSISTANCE IN THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVATIONS, PREFACE, DATA BASE (i-vii)

SUMMARY OF EVALUATION

1. CONTEXT 1

1.1 Objective of the Study and Methodology 1

1.2 Context and Strategies of the Agricultural Sector 1

2. EVALUATION OF BANK ASSISTANCE STRATEGY 4

2.1 Bank Policy on the Sector 4

2.2 Bank Country Strategy for the Country 4

2.3 Relevance and Coherence of Strategy with the Country’s Development Strategy 5

2.4 Quality at the Outset and Coherence with Bank Top Priorities 6

2.5 Inter-sectoral Aspects 7

3. EVALUATION OF RESULTS 8

3.1 Summary of Bank Group Interventions in the Sector 8

3.2 Loan Operations 9

3.3 Non Loan Activities 10

3.4 Coordination of Assistance 12

3.5 Operation of Other Donors 12

4. ANALYSIS OF SUSTAINABILITY 13

4.1 Technical Viability 13

4.2 Economic and Financial Viability 14

4.3 Social Viability 15

4.4 Institutional Aspects 15

4.5 Inter-sectoral Aspects 15

4.6 Repercussions of the AIDS Pandemic 16

5. IMPACT INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT 16

6. PERFORMANCE 16

6.1 Factors Touching the Performance and Results 17

6.2 Borrower’s Performance in Drawing-up Projects 17

6.3 Borrower’s Performance in Implementation 18

6.4 Bank Performance in Preparation and Appraisal of Projects 19

6.5 Bank Performance in Supervision 20

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page

7. EVALUATION 20

7.1 Bank Assistance 20

7.2 Borrower’s Performance 20

8. CONCLUSIONS, LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 20

8.1 Conclusions 20

8.2 Lessons 21

8.3 Recommendations 22

LIST OFANNEXES

No. of Pages

1. Matrix of Recommendations and Monitoring Actions 2

2. Socio-Economic and Sectoral Indicators 1

3. Combined Results of Bank Loan Operations in the Agricultural Sector 1

4. Summary of Bank Projects in the Agricultural Sector 6

5. Evaluation Points 5

6. Effects of HIV/AIDS on the Agricultural Sector 1

This report has been prepared by Mr. R. RANDRIANARISON, Consultant, under the

supervision of Mr. H. RAZAFINDRAMANANA, Principal Evaluation Officer, OPEV,

following the mission to Rwanda in March 2002. Any further question relating to the

report should be addressed to Mr. G.M.B. KARIISA, Director, OPEV (Extension 4052).

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

ADB : African Development Bank

ADF : African Development Fund

AFD : Agence française de développement (French Development Agency)

AIDS : Acquired Immuned Deficiency Syndrome

ARMDP : Agricultural and Rural Markets Development Projects

ASIP : Agricultural Sector Investment Project

CSP : Country Strategy Paper

DES : Detailed Engineering Study

FRW : Rwandan Franc

GDP : Gross Domestic Product GNP : Gross National Product

HIV : Human Immuned Deficiency Virus

IFAD : International Fund for Agricultural Development

OPEC : Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries

PAEBL : Projet d’Appui au Développement de l’Elevage Bovin Laitier

PD : Preliminary Design

PDAB II : Byumba Agricultural Development Project II

PDAM : Mutara Agricultural Development Project

(Dairy Cattle Rearing Development Support Project)

PRAUPA : Emergency Agricultural Production Recovery Project

PRSME : Promotion of Rural Small-sized and Micro-Enterprises

PRSP : Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper

RDP : Rural Development Project

TAF : Technical Assistance Fund

TOR : Terms of Reference

UA : Unit of Account

UNAIDS : United Nations Organisations - AIDS

ii

PREFACE

1. The African Development Bank financed agricultural operations in Rwanda between

1994 and 2001. Some of these operations which were approved before 1994, are currently

being implemented or nearing completion. Those approved after 1994, are practically at the

start up stage. All these operations suffered, by far and near, from the negative impact of the

disastrous events which Rwanda witnessed since the beginning of 1990 until 1994, the year

marked by the loss of countless human lives, numerous community infrastructure and very

many plant and animal resources.

2. It is therefore timely now for the Bank, after some retreat, to assess the results of its

assistance and identify the different restrictive factors which might have impeded or could

hinder the impact of the results obtained in setting a real agricultural development in motion.

Since the results aimed at and obtained by the projects, although necessary, are not adequate

for transforming the rural population concerned into true economic operators capable of

gearing up the agricultural development so much sought for, or in other words, intensive,

accelerated, supported and sustainable.

3. The analysis to be carried out should therefore assess whether Bank operations have

contributed substantially to the transformation of the present traditional agriculture into a

modern one. Given that the reports of the projects are exogene by definition, this approach

implies therefore that the internal dynamism of beneficiaries is not a restrictive factor in

implementing the ways and means recommended under the operations concerned by the

assistance. In case of the contrary, the Bank actions will always be limited in intensity and

will not be able to induce the development mechanism sought-after.

4. «The law of minimum», well known principle of agronomists, is therefore applied

here, much more than elsewhere. Its desire is that among all constraints to a given problem,

the one which hinders the solution to others be first resolved. To be set on tackling all the

problems at the same time is neither recommended nor effective and assessment of Bank

assistance should consider the aforementioned principle and determine, if need be, the

existence of a factor limiting the increase in the productivity of different Rwandan agricultural

production. The question for instance may be asked, why the yields of irrigated rice obtained

in Bugarama and Rwamagana hover around 2.5 and 3.5 t/ha, whereas it is possible to obtain

elsewhere 10 t/ha under similar conditions?

5. What needs to be highlighted in this example is not so much the tonnage mentioned,

but rather the very sharp difference noted between the two yields. The big question to ask is

therefore from where does the difference of yields come? from the presence of agricultural

infrastructure, availability of inputs, technical supervision or beneficiaries receptiveness to

technical innovations?

iii

DATA BASE

1. ON THE PROJECT

TITLE PDAB II PDAM PRAUPA PAEBL

Location Byumba Region Mutara Region Bugarama and

Rwamagana

National

Approval October 1990 December 1990 September 1997 October 2000

Signature March-March 1991 May 1991 May 1998

Effectiveness October-May 1991 March 1996 April 1999 July 2001

Closure December 2001 December 2002 December 2003 December 2005

Loan Amount

(ADF)

ADF : UA 3.5 million

TAF : UA 1.3 million

UA 9.938 million UA 4.2 million UA 13.50 million

Executing

Agency

Project Implementation Unit Permanent Secretariat Rural Engineering

Department

Project Implementation Unit

Project

Description

Plant and forestry production,

development of swamps,

livestock, credit and farmers associations, feeder roads

construction

Production of rice, soya,

cassava, sorghum, beans

milk and meat

Rehabilitation of

Bugarama and

Rwamagana, irrigation schemes, and

improvement of

technical supervision

Leadership and extension,

intensification of cattle

rearing, veterinary actions, promotion of livestock

products and institutional

strengthening (constructions and equipment)

Present major

results

Better environmental

protection, rehabilitation of community infrastructure

(health centres, schools etc.)

distribution of diverse inputs (agriculture and livestock),

self-sufficiency in

comparison with major crops grown there, and increase in

cattle heard.

Improvement of livestock

in terms of increase in weight during growth,

production of milk and

reduction of cattle death; distribution of selected

seeds, foodstuff and

forestry, and provision of drinking water supply

composed mainly of 350

km of PVC pipes and 250 standpipes

Productivity gains of

some 0.5 t/ha stemming from the only technical

supervision undertaken

by the project.

No concrete result, in view of

its recent date of effectiveness.

2. ON THE STUDIES

TITLE RDP OF RUHENGERI NSHILI KIVU TEA FACTORY

FEASIBILITY STUDY

DEVELOPMENT OF SWAMPS,

PROTECTION, CATCHMENT

AREAS, SOIL CONSERVATION

Location Ruhengeri Province West Region National

Approval April 1987 December 1989 March 1998

Signature July 1987 May 1990 May 1998

Effectiveness February 1989 October 1993 March 1999

Estimated

Duration

39 months 12 months 24 months

Completion June 1997 December 1999

Amount UA 0.83 million UA 1.53 million UA 1.03 million

Description of

Study

Study of Ruhengeri rural development master plan and

feasibility study of a project

within the framework of the scheme.

(i) feasibility study of installation of a tea factory for the Nshili

Kivu plantation;

(ii) tea sub-sector study, possibility of its privatisation.

Master plan study of development of swamps; protection of catchment areas

and conservation of soils, with a view to

providing the country with a rational operating tools for its land resources in

the medium and long-term, feasibility

study of development of gross 6,000 hectares of swamps.

Present situation The two studies are completed,

but the feasibility study is no

longer a current issue.

Studies completed in 1999. Final

report transmitted to the Bank in

February 2000.

Ongoing : some projects have already

been submitted.

iv

1. Objective of the Study and Approach

1.1 Evaluation of the Bank assistance to the agricultural sector of Rwanda is aimed to

assess the quality and effectiveness of its contribution to reduction of food deficit and

improvement of the welfare of the targeted rural population, so as to enhance its impacts

on the rural agricultural development of the country.

1.2 This evaluation is based on analysis of the major results obtained during the

period between 1994 and 2001. Proposals for improvement aims, on the one hand, at

implementation of projects, but also and especially it aims, on the other hand, at a real and

sustained impact of projects on agricultural and rural development within the framework

of the demands of the Vision of Rwanda by the year 2020 and the Bank Strategy in the

agricultural sector.

2. Background

2.1 The agricultural sector, employing over 90% of the total population and

contributing about 40% to GDP, is the backbone of the Rwandan economy. Agriculture is

diversified thanks to the existence of several agro-climatic areas which are due to the

combined effect of the thermic gradient, varying with altitude and different types of soils.

The cultivable area farmed is estimated at 1,100,000 ha, that is 41% of the total area of the

country (26,338 km2) and represents 80% of cultivable lands (1,385,000 ha). The non-

cultivable lands are the grazing grounds, national parks, afforestation and national forests.

The chances for extension are thus very limited, with the exception of swamps, that is

areas flooded or not, suitable at the bottom of the valleys, which are at present the subject

of a development master plan study. These possibilities work out to about 160,000 ha, but

due to several reasons, the entire area will probably not be used.

2.2 In Rwanda, farms are scattered and small. The typical traditional farming

system which is largely practised in Rwanda limits the yields of food crops and hence is

one of the drawbacks to the development of agriculture. Most crops are grown on the hill

slopes that are often steep, which, whenever erosion-control measures are not taken, result

in the deterioration of the land heritage.

2.3 It is indeed this extreme low yields which are a worry to the various authorities

in view of the area cultivated which is almost exhaustive. The problem is however not in

terms of area, but in terms of productivity and farming intensity and in this area it is

technically possible to do much in Rwanda. It is for example technically possible to

increase by two or three, if not more, the present yields. This nevertheless supposes that

the farmers operate as true professionals, meaning that they will produce for sale with a

view to meeting requirements other than traditional and subsistence.

2.4 The forest resources which were once significant, are now dwindling sharply as

the population pressure increases and the demand for arable lands grow increasingly. The

protection of this forest heritage cannot be actually done except through a national

programme of erosion control and afforestation or reafforestation depending on the case.

v

2.5 Rwanda on the other hand has significant livestock resources, whose

exploitation is essentially traditional. It is therefore hindered by a few constraints

including population pressure which leads to the shrinking of the area earmarked for

grazing. Livestock raising can however be developed in Rwanda through a number of

improvement measures.

Strategy of the Sector

2.6 The sectoral objective consists in developing the entire agricultural potential (in

the large sense) of Rwanda in order to contribute to food security and to the increase in

rural population incomes which are first inevitable to improvement of their living

conditions and well-being. The rational development of this agricultural potential

nevertheless comes up against a number of constraints which need to be identified

beforehand so as to better overcome them. The basic constraint resides in the radical

change and the impetus which must be given the farmers for them to use modern farming

methods and do away with the traditional practices which aim only at subsistence and

which so far characterise Rwandan Agriculture with all the consequences it entails.

2.7 To overcome these difficulties, Rwanda has decided to underscore the

intensification of agriculture which turns out subsequently to be indispensable, on the one

hand, shrinking of the land caused by high population pressure noted especially on the

hills and, on the other hand, of a character still extensive of farms located in the north-

west of the country (Mutara). It proposes to make agriculture professional, which implies

the existence of an effective and efficient marketing system and the continuous search for

profitability.

2.8 The forthright transformation of agriculture in Africa demands passing on to

very diversified agricultural activities, which is focused on subsistence, to a more

commercial agriculture, supported by a better access to markets and a steady but rapid

industrialisation of agricultural produce. It should be based on a rational and balanced

implementation of modern techniques, increasing and continuous use of inputs and

integration of agriculture into other sectors. Against this background, the Bank has

identified, under its development objectives, the significant thematic areas listed hereafter

which represent the constitutive factors of its vision for the agricultural and rural

development : (i) equitable and accelerated economic growth, (ii) poverty reduction and

food security, (iii) management of natural resources and environmental protection and (iv)

human and institutional capacity building.

2.9 The Bank’s current operational strategy in Rwanda relies on revitalisation of

the rural economy and poverty reduction. It aims to promote income generating

production activities and contribute to ensure food security of the population while

preserving the environment. Bank resources have thus been turned on priority basis

towards implementation of integrated and supplementary actions, which in addition to

their socio-economic impacts, will help to safeguard the huge investments already made.

vi

Bank Group Operations in the Sector

2.10 The Bank has financed seven operations in the agricultural sector since 1994

up-to-date. The operations are the following: (i) Byumba Agricultural Development

Project phase II, (ii) Mutara Agricultural Development Project (iii) Emergency

Agricultural Production Recovery Project, (iv) Dairy Cattle Rearing Development Support

Project, (v) Study of a Master Plan for the Rural Development of the Ruhengeri, (vi)

Nshili Kivu Tea Factory Feasibility Study and Tea Sub-sector Study; and (vii) Master

Plan Study of Development of Swamps, Protection of Catchment Areas and Conservation

of Soils. The first two projects are nearing completion, the next two are being

implemented, the first and second studies have been completed while the third one is

under way.

Coordination of Assistance and Donors Operations in the Sector

2.11 Strictly speaking, there is no assistance and donors intervention in the sector,

when in spite of everything occasional contacts are made from time to time between the

different donors. Experience has also confirmed this absence of harmonisation through

the financing of a study which was successfully conducted but which was subsequently no

longer of current interest (ref. para. 5.1.2). This absence of rational coordination stems

from the fact that the country has no prior investment programme drawn up in the

agricultural sector and that it has consequently led to do visual flying according to offers

of financing and pinpoint needs brought to the fore. The solution is therefore in the

drawing up of a master plan for agricultural and rural development plan, and for in-depth

sub-sectoral studies within the framework of Vision 2020 recently adopted by Rwanda.

2.12 IFAD is currently financing an integrated rural development project in the

Mutara region. The project should under normal circumstances go towards strengthening

the Mutara agricultural development project financed by ADB, on parallel basis with the

dairy cattle rearing development support project which is a national project but

implemented in Mutara to reinforce the dairy cattle development project.

3 Conclusions

3.1 Analysis of operations which support Bank assistance in Rwanda during the

period 1994-2001 helps to conclude that the different projects financed have generally

contributed to reduce food deficit of the rural population and to improve the welfare. On

completion of the projects, some constraints were identified. They relate notably to: (i)

sluggishness in the different stages of implementation, (ii) frequent change of senior

officers bringing about incoherence and delays in actions undertaken and (iii) the lack of

human resources with all its implications.

3.2 Beyond these implementation constraints, the actual problems were noted.

They stem probably from relatively low impacts of agricultural projects on the

development of the sector. It would seem that there was a problem of receptiveness which

would need explanation, so as to identify the actual incentives capable of moving the

farmers to be much more sensitive to innovations leading to change, cornerstone of the so

much sought for agricultural development.

vii

4. Lessons

4.1 The first lesson to be drawn from the analysis of these projects financed by the

Bank is the need to be conscious of the important role to be played by the effective use of

the different means of communication presently available and easily accessible both in

Rwanda and at the Bank (telephone, fax, e-mail and express mail including DHL.

4.2 With regard to the relatively frequent change of senior officers involved in

projects, it is obvious that it brings about negative effects on the project through the loss

of some non recorded information and through the lack of coherent monitoring of actions

undertaken. Solution for this must be sought under the general design of a project. It

must underscore a mechanism which enables a project to be more and more rapidly

autonomous.

4.3 The lack of human resources is a general problem in Rwanda. It should be by

and large resolved. Meanwhile, the rational use of technical assistance can be a short and

medium-term solution.

4.4 All planned actions in a project suggest the existence of officers in charge who

are going to implement them. The low results, in terms of productivity, obtained by the

projects analysed seem, however, to show a clear difference between the resources used

(inputs, technology) and the results obtained and this in relation to what one would have

obtained within a true professional framework.

5 Principal recommendations

5.1 To improve Bank assistance in the agricultural sector in Rwanda, the following

is recommended:

(1) To make sure, under every project to be implemented, to provide the ways and

means required to actually facilitate communication between project officers in

Rwanda and those in charge of projects and disbursement in the Bank.

(2) Assist the country to draw up an investment programme in the agricultural

sector, in order to enable it to pursue and achieve the agricultural and rural

development objectives set as part of its poverty reduction strategy paper

(PRSP) and of its Vision 2020. This investment programme in the agricultural

sector must be based on an in-depth study of the sector and the sub-sectors

concerned. Its terms of reference must notably insist on identification of the

basic difficulties of development of the sector, hierarchisation over time and in

the area of qualitative and quantitative objectives to be achieved,

harmonisation and coordination of interventions so as to avoid incoherence and

unnecessary duplication.

(3) Assist the country to conduct feasibility studies of projects that may and must

come under investment programme in the agricultural sector for the purpose of

their financing later on. The terms of reference of these studies put emphasis

on the search for beneficiaries with intrinsic ability to respond positively and

effectively to the different requirements of the project, and thus with a view to

transforming subsistence agriculture into modern agriculture.

EVALUATION OF BANK ASSISTANCE IN THE

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR OF RWANDA

1. CONTEXT

1.1 Objective of the Study and Methodology

1.1.1 Evaluation of Bank assistance in the agricultural sector of Rwanda is aimed to

assess the quality and effectiveness of its contribution in reducing food deficit and

improving the living conditions of the targeted rural population. This is intended to

improve its impacts on agricultural and rural development of the country, and this as part

of its sectoral objectives in conformity with Rwanda’s Vision 2020, country strategy paper

and Bank agricultural and rural development.

1.1.2 This evaluation is based on the examination and analysis (i) of information and

viewpoints expressed during discussions and interactions held with different officers of

both projects mentioned in paragraph 3.1 below and those of the Ministry of Agriculture,

Livestock and Forestry (ii) major results obtained by these projects between 1994 and

2001 and hence (iii) strengths and weaknesses of Bank strategy in agricultural and rural

development in Rwanda as well as assistance during the period under consideration. It

takes into account objective criteria such as relevance, effectiveness, efficiency and

sustainability and takes account of the global context under which the various actions of

the Bank were carried out.

1.1.3 Proposals for improvement, while integrating the major problems identified

during implementation of projects, will be executed within the framework of the demands

of Rwanda’s Vision 2020, Rwanda Agricultural Policy, Bank policy in the agricultural

sector and Country Strategy Paper for Rwanda. All these are intended for the

transformation of subsistence agriculture into modern agriculture, for the purpose of a real

agricultural development, which is intensive and sustainable, and in short, cornerstone of

the development of Rwanda.

1.2 Context and Strategies of the Agricultural Sector

Agricultural Context

1.2.1 The agricultural sector, employing nearly 94% of the total population and

contributing about 40% to GDP, is the backbone of the Rwandan economy. Agriculture is

diversified thanks to the existence of several agro-climatic areas which stem from the

combined effect of temperature gradient, varying with altitude and different types of soils.

The agricultural area cultivated is estimated at 1,100,000 ha, that is 41% of the total area

of the country (26,338 km2) and represents 80% of the arable lands (1,385,000 ha). The

lands that cannot be cultivated are grazing grounds, national parks, afforestations and

natural forests. Possibilities of extension are thus very limited, with the exception of

swamps, that is lands flooded or not, situated in the bottom of valleys, which are currently

the subject of a development master plan. These possibilities work out to about 160,000

ha, but the entire area will probably not be utilised for diverse reasons.

2

1.2.2 Most of the Rwandan agricultural lands (90%) are up to date governed by

customary law, written land tenure law which remains the prerogative of a minority as

well as religious congregations. The non-existence of adequate legal framework can thus

become under some conditions, a real obstacle to rational use of lands. More especially as

according to Rwandan custom, land ownership remains under the management and the

hold of man, land tenure laws transmitted through heritage from father to son. All these

problems and others have nevertheless been taken into account in the ongoing drawing up

of a national land tenure Policy, whose general objective is to set up a safe land tenure

system for the entire Rwandan population, without any discrimination, according to the

principle of equality of citizens enacted by the country’s Constitution.

1.2.3 Before 1990, Rwanda was almost self-sufficient in food. However, after the

war of 1994 food production, although on the increase, covers not more than 70 to 80% of

the population’s requirements. The main food crops, mostly home-consumed production,

are banana, voluble beans, potato, cassava, sweet potato, garden pea, sorghum, maize,

rice, wheat and soya. They are cultivated by women who are concerned normally by the

production of basic items for feeding the family.

1.2.4 Agro-industrial crops, of which coffee and tea notably, play a very important

role in the Rwanda economy since they account for nearly 90% of the country’s foreign

exchange earning. The war had damaged almost all the tea processing factories, but the

majority have now become operational.

1.2.5 In Rwanda farms are characterised by their dispersion and small size. Those

less than 1 ha represent 57% of all the farms and are found in areas with average altitude

and high population density (500 inhab./km2) and those above 2 ha represent only 16% of

farms and are situated in areas above 2,500 m with a population density of about 200

inhab./km2.

1.2.6 The very traditional farming widely practised in Rwanda limits the yield

obtained by food crops and constitutes therefore one of the major constraints to

agricultural development. Most of the crops are grown on the sides of hills often with

deep slopes, which in the absence of erosion control measures, lead to the deterioration of

land heritage. On the other hand the fallow-lands are non existent and inputs such as

selected seeds, fertilizers and pest and fungus control products are little known there,

except in the areas where projects having envisaged the component are located. But even

in these areas where inputs are relatively available and where extension endeavours to

disseminate adequate techniques, the yields remain rather low in comparison with what

could be obtained.

1.2.7 It is indeed these extreme low yields which worry the various officers in view

of the area cultivated which has almost reached its limits. The problem, however, is not in

terms of area, but in terms of productivity and farming intensity and in this area it is

technically possible to do much in Rwanda, for instance to double or triple, if not more,

the present yields (maize, rice, potato etc.). This nevertheless supposes, with notably

availability of diverse agricultural inputs, that the farmers act as true professionals, that is

to say that some transformation could be made to render them highly motivated,

unavoidable condition for receptiveness to technical innovations thereby enabling the

obtention of very high yields.

3

1.2.8 The forestry resources, which in the past were substantial, are dwindling

speedily in the face of excessive galloping population pressure and arable lands which are

increasingly in high demand. The protection of this forest heritage can therefore only be

effected validly through a national programme of erosion control and a programme of

afforestation or reafforestation to which the forestry development support project financed

by ADF and whose loan agreement was signed in December 2001 is going to contribute

effectively.

1.2.9 Rwanda possesses considerable herd whose development is mainly traditional.

It, however, gets entangles with a few constraints including the population pressure which

causes the reduction of the area devoted to grazing, its concentration in the areas far away

from marketing and consumption centres and its traditional character which robs it of

every economic consideration. Livestock can nevertheless be developed in Rwanda

through (i) a number of technical improvements including notably artificial insemination,

rational animal feed and the undertaking of a better animal health monitoring and

especially (ii) actions aimed to transform traditional stockbreeders into modern breeders,

eager for technical innovations.

Strategy of the Sector

1.2.10 The sectoral objective consists in developing every agricultural potential of

Rwanda (ref. agricultural Policy of Rwanda) with a view to contributing to food security

and increasing the rural population incomes, which are obligatory precedents to

improvement of their living conditions and well-being.

1.2.11 The rational development of this agricultural potential, however, comes up

against a number of constraints which is worth identifying first in order to overcome them.

The basic constraints resides in the radical change where-by the farmers must be impelled

to practise a modern agriculture and abandon the traditional methods which aim only at

subsistence that so far marks the Rwandan agriculture. Other constraints have moreover

been identified as well, such as the small size of lands, low utilisation of agricultural

inputs, result of the traditional character of the Rwandan agriculture, the low cultivation of

the areas with high potential like swamps, low productivity of plants and animals of

varieties and local breeds and inadequacy of marketing and processing agricultural

produce.

1.2.12 To overcome the afore-mentioned different constraints of agricultural

development, Rwanda has chosen to put emphasis on the broad directions cited below and

consequently favour corresponding measures and actions.

a) Intensification of agriculture: This intensification is indispensable owing to

the reduction in the size of lands caused by high population pressure, noted

especially on the hills. It concerns all the sub-sectors (plant, forest and

livestock production) and involves (i) increasing use and adequate agricultural

inputs (fertilizers, selected seeds, agricultural tools and equipment and

veterinary products), (ii) regionalisation of crops according to their

agroclimatic demands, facilities provided for their marketing and their

contribution to a better food security, (iii) replacement, in the area of cash

crops, of old plants by high yielding varieties which are more competitive for

export, (iv) improvement of livestock breeding methods in order to increase

4

dairy and meat production (artificial insemination, intensive livestock

breeding), (v) environmental protection and (vi) afforestation of new areas

through agro-forestry and rational use of wood.

b) Professionalisation of agriculture: This professionalisation of agriculture

means the mastery of production and processing techniques, existence of an

effective and efficient marketing system and continuous search for

profitability. It therefore imposes upstream measures and actions gearing

towards transformation of traditional rural area into a modern rural area, that is

to say essentially economic.

2. EVALUATION OF BANK ASSISTANCE STRATEGY

2.1 Bank Policy on the Sector

2.1.1 The actual transformation of agriculture in Africa demands moving from very

diversified agricultural activities and focused on subsistence to a more commercial

agriculture, supported by a better access to markets and a study but rapid industrialisation

of agricultural products. It involves a rational, balanced and effective implementation of

modern techniques, increasing and continuing use of inputs and integration of agriculture

into other sectors. In the process of transformation, the source of growth should no longer

be space or increase in workforce but the increasing use of intensive and effective

technology, improvement of management methods and institutional framework. On the

other hand, the Bank’s vision on agricultural and rural development, hovers mainly

around the need to identify and enlarge the commercial gap, likely to create incentives

which will enable the rural population to participate, as economic agents, for their own

development.

2.1.2 In this aspect, the Bank has identified, as part of its development objectives, the

broad internal areas set out hereafter which represent the constituent factors of its vision

for agricultural and rural developments: (i) equitable and accelerated economic growth,

(ii) poverty reduction and food security, (iii) natural resources management and

environmental protection and (iv) human and institutional capacity building.

2.2 Bank Country Strategy for the Country

2.2.1 Bank operational strategy in Rwanda during the period covered by this

evaluation, relied generally on revamping of the rural economy and poverty reduction.

Examining and analysis of this strategy show that it was an issue of mainly promoting

agricultural production activities, income generators, so as to contribute to guarantee food

security of the population while preserving the environment. It should also, after the war,

assist to face a post-conflictual situation, by relaxing somehow the use of its financing for

actions considered urgent and indispensable.

2.2.2 Bank resources have therefore been directed on priority basis to

implementation of integrated and complementary actions in the following areas: (i)

intensification and diversification of plant and animal production, (ii) mobilisation and

rational use of water resources, (iii) protection of catchment areas and forests, (iv)

development of swamps and (v) technical and financial support to farmers, stock breeders

5

and agro-industries. These actions, in addition to their socio-economic impacts, will help

to safeguard the big investments already made.

2.2.3 Thus, it turns out that the Bank intervened in the agricultural sector of Rwanda

by financing inputs, infrastructure, equipment and materials as well as technical

supervision. All this financing was based on the implicit assumption that the beneficiary

farmers were going to change into modern farmers, that is to say by seeking to obtain the

maximum output permitted by the available inputs. Nevertheless, although the results

obtained (ref. para. 3.2 a) and annex 4) show that the set objectives have on the whole

been achieved, notably qualitatively, their examining ad analysis, given the agricultural

potential of Rwanda and the resources put in, show that they are far below what could

have been achieved in a modern agriculture. It should be noted for this reason that the

Bank’s implicit assumption cited above, is not appropriate and that it raises as a result a

serious constraint, even limiting factor, of real agricultural development of Rwanda.

2.2.4 Bank strategy in Rwanda should, as a result, henceforth take into account this

aspect of its operation so as to improve its assistance in this setor. It will be worthwhile

therefore to underscore research and implementation of ways and means required for

abandonment of traditional practices characterising Rwandan agriculture and which are

the source of weak reaction of farmers to technical innovations for agriculture, which is in

accordance with Rwandan agricultural Policy (ref. para.1.4.9, 1.4.10 and 1.4.11) and with

the top priorities of the Bank.

2.3 Relevance and Coherence of Strategy with the Country’s

Development Strategy

2.3.1 The development strategy of Rwanda is based on development of all its

agricultural potential with a view to improving the living conditions and well-being of the

rural population, through measures and actions which contribute to improve their food

security and their incomes in a sustainable manner. Examining and analysis of Bank

different operations between 1994 and 2001 (ref. para. 3.1) show that the set objectives

are perfectly in keeping with the development of Rwandan agricultural potentials. In fact,

it can be noted that:

(i) the four projects financed which are still being implemented aim at, each in its

sector, the intensive development of available resources through the use notably of

appropriate technical package with a view to increasing productivity of the various farms

envisaged and consequently raise the incomes of the rural population concerned, while

preserving, however, the environment in order that the results obtained can be maintained

for the longest time possible and

(ii) the three other studies, of which one is ongoing and two completed, are

proceeding also in the same manner with a view to increasing the incomes of the targeted

rural population.

2.3.2 It turned out that Bank assistance has been relatively relevant as compared to

the objectives set by both the country and the Bank and that its strategy has been on the

whole in conformity with that of the country.

6

2.4 Quality at the Outset and Coherence with Bank top Priorities

2.4.1 Examining and analysis of this Bank assistance during the period under

discussion shows that the design of the projects involved has been dominated by a major

theme which is the search for adequate combinations intended to equip agriculture to

achieve its objectives. The Bank has in fact privileged the inputs supply services before

harvest (supply of seeds and fertilizers, research and extension services) as compared to

assistance after harvest for storage, processing and marketing of the surpluses. In other

words, the projects were supposed to aim at some increase in agricultural inputs,

equipment, materials and infrastructure as well as technical supervision. This strategy,

though necessary turned out to be inadequate in view of the results obtained (cf. para 1.4.6

and 1.4.7). As a matter of fact the different actions of the Bank, considered to be stimuli

meant to make the real players in production react with a view to achieving the set

objectives that have unfortunately not been equal to the resources implemented and the

existing agricultural potential, to create the internal dynamism sought. Bank assistance

which is relatively high performing in respect of supply of inputs, construction and

rehabilitation of agricultural and rural infrastructure (irrigation development, feeder roads,

water supply etc.) and technical supervision (plant and animal production) thus became

weakened in terms of results, because it could not in actual fact translate the urgent need

for changing the traditional comportment of Rwandan farmers into the comportment of

true economic operators.

2.4.2 Moreover, in accordance with the Bank’s agricultural and rural development

Policy, a coherent agricultural sector investment programme drawned up on the basis of in-

depth sectoral and sub-sectoral studies aimed at sectoral objectives defined earlier on,

should normally serve as nurseries for bankable projects. This measure is necessary to

ensure coherence of actions in a given country and avoid financing ad hoc projects

responding to non sectoral demands. But available information does not unfortunately

make it possible, both in Rwanda and in the Bank, to confirm the existence of an

agricultural sector investment project.

2.4.3 In spite of the absence of an agricultural sector investment project, it can,

however, be noted (i) that Byumba II and Mutara agricultural development projects fall

within the scope of strengthening a previous rural development project of the Byumba

(Byumba I) region and master plan development project of the Mutara region respectively,

which aims at optimal use of its natural and human resources, (ii) that the dairy cattle

development support project comes to consolidate what has been done in the general

livestock development and notably in that of Mutara and (iii) that the emergency

agricultural production recovery project is in line with the Rwandan general agricultural

rehabilitation project. These different projects contribute, each in its sphere and according

to its results, in achieving the sectoral objectives of agricultural development in Rwanda, in

accordance with the top priorities of the Bank (ref. para. 2.1.1 and 2.2.1), and even if they

do not form part of any programme precedent to financing.

2.4.4 It should at last and especially be said that the situation in which Rwanda found

itself after the 1994 genocide justified this approach, because the damage caused to

infrastructure, plant and animals, materials as well as to human resources and the shortage

of agricultural inputs of all kinds, with all their immediate and eventual consequences,

show an agricultural production level which is practically non existent. At that time the

situation demanded emergency and rapid interventions. In view of the context then, the

7

objective was to rehabilitate and revive the agricultural sector with as immediate goals (i)

improvement of the food security situation, (ii) rehabilitation of the productive

infrastructure needed for research and supervision activities, (iii) safeguarding production

by developing the swamps, (iv) increase in farmers income, (v) promotion of the private

sector in production activities, processing and marketing, (vi) regeneration of herd and

their genetic improvement and (vii) rehabilitation and protection of natural resources.

2.4.5 Examining and analysis of operations financed by the Bank during the period

1994-2001, including those approved before 1994 (Byumba and Mutara agricultural

development projects) but which have therefore been more or less reformulated to take

account of the new context after 1994, show that all were aimed mainly at loan and non

loan operations, search for food security through the use of plan and animal materials and

inputs that are of higher performance as well as rehabilitation of productive infrastructure.

Despite this approach, projects without precise quantitative objectives, dictated by the

exceptional events which occurred in Rwanda in 1994, it can be noted that the results

obtained by the different operations of the Bank remained generally in conformity with its

top priorities in the agricultural sector, such as increase in productivity, although relative as

compared to the situation after the war, environmental protection and improvement of

welfare in the rural area.

2.5 Inter-sectoral Aspects

2.5.1 Of seven agricultural operations financed by the Bank, that were under

implementation during the period between 1994 and 2001, two agricultural development

projects (Byumba II and Mutara) were without agricultural components. These two

projects were approved by the Board of Directors of the Bank in 1990 and should have

covered five and six years respectively. They have been completed only this year, 2002,

that is within eleven years. Experience has shown that implementation of components of

rural integrated development projects, that are construction of roads and community

infrastructure, and outreach activities, credit, inputs and marketing often registered long

delays owing to their complexity. The concept of integration is indeed a solid base for

formal development, contrary to its limited reach, characteristic of traditional agriculture,

but their organisational complexity demands, however, taking into account adequate

supplementary measures to strengthen the institutional framework in charge, which should

therefore be designed in such a way as to enable the sustainable functioning of all.

2.5.2 More than 70% of the farms are in the mountains where the population density

varies between 200 and 500 inhab. per km2. Now these farms cover very slopping

grounds, which, for this reason, can crumble naturally during the rainy seasons since

weakened by earth works carried out precisely to break down and facilitate growing of

crops there. The different operations of the Bank have taken into consideration this

particular environmental aspect of Rwanda and have therefore envisaged appropriate

erosion control measures to get around this inconvenience. But Bank assistance does not

stop there because these ad hoc measures are not enough for resolving a national problem,

and this is how it became involved also in a forest development support project at the

national level (ref. para. 1.4.8) to contribute to the control of this scourge which threatens

the country in the short, medium and long-terms.

2.5.3 With regard to gender issues, they have not actually been considered by

different operations by the Bank during the period concerned by this evaluation. It

8

however turned out that after the war (ref. para.1.2.3), women accounted for 70% of the

total population of Rwanda. This should have led the Bank to intervene a little more in

their favour, but unfortunately that has not yet been the case for the meantime in the

agricultural sector.

3. EVALUATION OF RESULTS

3.1 Summary of Bank Group Interventions in the Sector (ref. annex 4).

3.1.1 The Bank has so far financed seven operations in the agricultural sector since

1994. These operations are as follows: (i) Byumba agricultural development project phase

II, (ii) Mutara agricultural development project, (iii) Emergency agricultural production

recovery project, (iv) dairy cattle rearing development support project, (v) study of a

Master Plan rural development of Ruhengeri Prefecture, (vi) Nshili Kivu tea factory

feasibility study and tea sub-sector study (vii) Master Plan study on development of

swamps, protection of catchment areas and soil conservation (ref. annex 4).

3.1.2 The four projects cited above have as objectives to increase productivity of the

different food crops concerned and the existing livestock population, with a view to

reducing food deficit in sustainable manner, and increase the income of the targeted

population. To achieve these objectives, a number of actions were therefore planned and

implemented. In concrete terms they have contributed to food self-sufficiency in the

Byumba region and increase in livestock productivity in terms of meat and milk in Mutara.

Regarding the two other projects which are still in process of implementation (Emergency

agricultural production recovery project and livestock support project) and although no

notable execution has been carried out, it turns out that the said projects seem to be on

track of achieving the expected results (ref. annex 4).

3.1.3 Regarding the studies cited in paragraph 2.7.1,two have been completed but

not followed by implementations (ref. annex 4), the third is ongoing and will lead to the

drawing up of a feasibility study on the development of 6 000 ha of swamps, as well as

corresponding preliminary engineering studies and detailed preliminary engineering study.

3.1.4 The major problems encountered can be grouped into three top priorities (i)

slowness in implementation of projects, (ii) suspensions of disbursements and (iii) lack of

human resources. With regard to slowness, they relate to delays in putting into force,

either to reaction on the lapse of time basis or delays in disbursement. The delays in

putting into effect are often long due to diverse reasons either because certain conditions

are relatively long to comply with or because the officers in charge are not familiar with

the steps to take to fulfil them, or because the officers in charge are over-burdened with

work or simply because there are too many conditions precedent to fulfil or because of all

these reasons. Concerning the long delays to reaction on the lapse of time basis and to

demands of disbursement, their reasons seem to be due to inadequate communication

between the different project officers, but at the level of the Bank through excess work, or

at the level of country through the lack of comprehension of the rules and procedures in

force or simply through the lack of communication facilities. Lastly, concerning the lack

of human resource, as a result of the events of 1994, it can bring about a number of

situations (frequent change of officers, incoherence in monitoring actions, non mastery of

certain actions etc.) which hamper the smooth implementation of projects.

9

3.2 Loan Operations

a) Efficiency

3.2.1 The two agricultural development projects Byumba and Mutara have set the

same objectives, that is reduction of food deficit, environmental protection, and

enhancement of farmers income and their living conditions, each in its area of operation

and through productive resources that are available there. Though none of the two

projects is at present fully completed, it can be already noted that (i) with regard to

Byumba there has been a better environmental protection, rehabilitation of community

infrastructure (health centres, schools….), distribution of divers inputs (agriculture and

livestock) self-sufficiency in relation to the principal crops grown there, and increase in

cattle population, on the contrary outreach techniques have been adopted faintly both in

plant production and animal production. This is because it seemed that the techniques had

not been seen as real and profound; (ii) for Mutara there is an improvement of livestock

breeding in terms of gain in weight on growth, dairy production and reduction of cattle

death, distribution of selected seeds, both food crops and forestry, and provision of water

supply consisting notably of 350 km of PVC pipeline and 250 standpipes. Viewed from

this angle it can be said that the two projects have on the whole achieved their objectives

from the qualitative standpoint, although operational problems relating to their

implementation have more or less limited their scope.

3.2.2 Analysis of these operational problems shows that there are two types, one

relating to implementation of projects such as it is designed and the other underpinning

them. The problems related to implementation are essentially characterised by the

slowness of different processes used, such as effectiveness of the loan, preparation of

goods and services, demands on the lapse of time basis, disbursements and audits. The

other type of problems which supports implementation of these projects is in the

assumption that is made on their design, that is to say due to the fact that it is supposed

that the beneficiaries are going to make an optimal use of all the resources placed at their

disposal under these operations.

3.2.3 The slowness of the different processes cited above seems to emanate, after

analysis, from the lack of effective communications between the two parties, that is to say

between the Bank and the Borrower. It would be necessary that henceforth different

means of modern communications, such as telephone, fax, e-mail and DHL, be specially

planned in the list of goods and services of projects and procured and implemented later.

On the other hand, with regard to the assumption at the outset upon which the projects are

based, which in actual fact is not verified, it is also time to look for the ways and means

which will help to verify it before implementation of the projects, or alongside their

implementation.

3.2.4 Regarding the Emergency agricultural production recovery project in the two

irrigation schemes of Bugarama and Rwamagama which aims, like the aforementioned

two projects, to ensure food security, but through increase in the only production of white

rice, it is already noted, though the rehabilitation of works planned have not yet been

completed, that the yields of Rwamagama and Bugarama are 3.0 t/ha/crop and 4.0

t/ha/crop, respectively, whereas they were 2.5t/ha/crop and 3t/ha/crop before project. This

productivity gain stem from the only technical supervision provided by the project. In the

light of the foregoing and its present status of implementation, it is therefore justified to

10

assume that this project can be effective, as compared to the objectives set, because it has

already contributed to increase in yield.

3.2.5 Concerning the dairy cattle development project which aims to improve food

security through the satisfaction of domestic demand in milk and meat, while increasing

farmers income, it is not yet possible at the moment to pass a judgement on its

effectiveness, due to the lack of results in concrete terms, because it has just got off the

ground (1st disbursement in December 2001).

b) Efficiency

3.2.6 Only the two agricultural development projects of Byumba phase II and

Mutara can be assessed from the standpoint of efficiency, in view of their present very

advanced status of implementation. The other two projects (Emergency agricultural

production recovery project and dairy cattle development projects) are at the start up stage

of implementation. The present impacts of these projects, each in its region, are for (i)

Byumba phase II: self-sufficiency as regards the major crops, increase in cattle

population, granting of credits for the purchase of inputs and promotion of non

agricultural employments and (ii) Mutara: on the one hand more than 90% of dairy

enterprises of the country come to obtain milk supplies in Mutara for Kigali, which, in

upstream, supposes an increase in livestock, thanks to the project, notably in terms of

improvement of the cattle breed used, animal feed and animal health and, on the other

hand, 250 standpipes have been installed to facilitate drinking water supply from Mutara

region and thereby improve the living conditions of the rural population. Beyond the

physical implementations, directly financed by the Bank, these impacts show clearly the

spillovers of these two operations in Rwanda.

3.2.7 Despite the obvious long delays in implementation of the two projects

therefore, it is possible to say that they have relatively been efficient if the real impacts

mentioned above (ref. para 2.7., 4.1.1 and 4.2.1) are taken account of and especially if the

post-war context in which they were, is considered, context which was neither envisaged

nor sensed during appraisal.

3.3 Non Loan Activities

a) Effectiveness

3.3.1 The principal non loan operational instruments of the Bank in Rwanda during

the period 1994-2001 were first, studies (study of a master plan for the rural development

of the Ruhengeri, feasibility of the tea factory and study of the master plan for the

development of swamps, protection of the catchment areas and conservation of soils), then

country strategy papers (CSP of 1996-1998 and that of 1998-2001) and lastly supervisions

of the different projects concerned by the evaluation.

3.3.2 The first of these studies financed by the Bank is completed and has led to the

identification of the feasibility study of a rural development in Ruhengeri, the second

relating to the tea factory is also completed. With regard to the last, it is at present

ongoing, though the master plan is completed, it remains the conduct of a feasibility study

of a development project covering 6,000 ha, as well as corresponding studies of

preliminary design and detailed engineering design. The first two studies have been

11

completed in conformity with the terms of reference, but one has to wait to assess the third

study.

3.3.3 The country strategy papers (CSP) corresponding to the period covered by this

evaluation have on the whole aimed at revitalizing the rural economy and poverty

reduction through financing of inputs, rural infrastructure, agricultural equipment and

materials and technical supervision (ref. para. 2.2.1 and 2.2.3). These strategies have been

relatively high performing, since their implementation through the projects financed by the

Bank has contributed to achieve the set objectives, that is to say, on the whole procurement

of agricultural inputs, equipment and materials, construction of rural infrastructure and

technical supervision.

3.3.4 The supervision carried out by the Bank were according principles notably

with respect to frequency. They also helped to resolve the problems of implementation,

particularly numerous in Rwanda, owing to the lack of human resources stemming from

the post-conflict situation. Despite these performance, however, the results obtained at the

level of projects implementation could have been better, in terms of delays, if they had not

been limited by inadequate communication between the different project officers (ref.

para.3.1.4).

b) Efficiency

3.3.5 The studies financed by the Bank in Rwanda have all not contributed to the

development of agriculture. This is why the feasibility study for the Ruhengeri rural

development project, although completed, has not taken any shape, because IFAD was

already financing a similar project. The study is therefore not a question of the moment.

Concerning the second study relating to tea, it served as a tool of orientation and definition

of alternatives for privatising this study currently ongoing and which will also serve as

assistance to decision-making of future investors. The third study, as mentioned above (ref.

para. 3.3.1) is ongoing and can still not be evaluated.

3.3.6 The country strategy papers (CSP) have indeed assisted to achieve the

objectives set for the projects financed by the Bank during the period covered by this

evaluation. Their performances, nevertheless, have been limited (ref. para. 2.2.3 and 2.4.1)

by weak reaction of beneficiaries to the stimuli brought about by the projects, and by the

nonchalant attitude to factors of development after harvest (storage, marketing and

processing). The nonchalant attitude to one or several of these factors of development can

in effect constitute a bottleneck for the country’s agricultural production and consequently

for farmers productivity.

3.3.7 With regard to the supervision missions, their implementation has certainly

contributed to improve the results obtained by the projects thanks to the pieces of advice

given by the experts of the Bank. However, real impacts on the development were also

limited, on the one hand, by the same motives as the CSP (ref. para.2.2.3 and 2.4.1) and, on

the other hand, by the lack of power of decisions of Bank experts on mission. These

experts have to act according to a relatively long process before being able to make

materialise the pieces of advice and instructions which they give during their supervisions.

This is likely to reduce the impact of their operations in implementation of projects of

which they are in charge.

12

3.4 Coordination of Assistance

Strictly speaking there is formally no assistance and interventions of other

donors in the sector, even when from time to time there have been contacts among them.

Experience has moreover confirmed the absence of harmonisation through financing of a

study which had been completed but which was eventually out-of-date (ref. para. 3.3.2).

This absence of rational coordination is due to the fact that the country has no investments

programme drawn up beforehand in the agricultural sector (ASIP) and that it is

consequently induced to carry out a visual flying according to financing offers and ad hoc

needs that are brought to the fore. The solution therefore finds expression in drawing up

of agricultural and rural development master plan and in-depth sub-sectoral studies under

Vision 2020 recently adopted by Rwanda. It will therefore be easy for the various donors

to understand one another and coordinate their interventions according to their respective

priorities and availability.

3.5 Operation of Other Donors

3.5.1 IFAD is currently financing a project for the promotion of rural small and

microenterprises, a project which, though initiated by the Ministry of Commerce, Industry

and Tourism, presents certain aspects relating to agricultural development, whose support

to the organisation of farmers groupings and micro-finance.

3.5.2 The World Bank, for its part, is at present financing agricultural and rural

markets development project whose main objective is to promote an agricultural inputs

distribution system based on the private sector. This promotion consists in opening a line

of credit for the import of agricultural inputs and to enable private entrepreneurs to stock

up supplies more easily for the purpose of their distribution among the population

concerned.

3.5.3 Moreover, this multilateral institution is also preparing with the Rwandan

authorities a project titled « rural sector support project » under the first phase of its rural

sector support programme of which one of the fundamental objectives is to increase the

rate of adoption of improved agricultural inputs with a view to initiating rapid and

sustainable transformation of agriculture.

3.5.4 Other bilateral donors, such as Belgium, China, Untied States of America or

France intervene in the Rwandan agricultural sector through the supply of diverse

agricultural inputs, deconcentrated credits, development of swamps or preparation of

pedagogic map of Rwanda.

4. ANALYSIS OF SUSTAINABILITY

4.1 Technical Viability

4.1.1 Byumba agricultural development project phase II. The main objectives of this

project were to increase agricultural production while protecting the environment, develop

the economic potentials for the landless, promote livestock development and facilitate

access to credit. They have been achieved thanks mainly to the following outputs (i)

establishment of seed breeders covering 950 ha and distribution of 730t of fertilizers and

13

23t of pest and fungus control products to farmers, (ii) establishment of 150 ha of

agroforestry nurseries and distribution of 15 million forestry plants and distribution of 15

million forest plants, (iii) development of 234 ha swamps (iv) artificial insemination of

cows and (v) easy access to credit.

4.1.2 Thus, it turns out to be that the technical viability of this project depends,

before any other thing, on the continuing use of inputs, monitoring of their distribution by

different officers in charge and easy access to credit for farmers. In order words it

depends on the effective zeal and motivation of decentralised agents of the services as

well as on good handling of the agricultural credit. The officers in charge should

therefore monitor closely the functioning of the system set up and detect the least fault to

be able to react rapidly if need be.

4.1.3 In the present situation, the production obtained helps to ensure some self-

sufficiency in food in the region. However, in a future which is difficult to predict at the

moment, this self-sufficiency is not likely to be guaranteed, because the outputs attained

so far, though they have reached the level of that of pre-war, they are no longer likely to

be adequate later in view of the sharp increase in rural population which characterises

Rwanda. Under these conditions, only an optimal and sustainable increase in productivity,

both in plant and animal production will help to resolve this problem. This increase in

productivity requires technically the use of more high result yielding inputs and increasing

effective protection of environment, hence more and more credits. This is nevertheless

only foreseeable if farmers creditworthiness increases consequently, which is strongly

linked to productivity level, and also depends on the level of motivation of farmers and,

eventually, project lands themselves, that are characterised mostly by sharp slopes,

rendering the erosion control and transport more difficult.

4.1.4 The Mutara agricultural development project. This project aims at reducing the

food deficit and raising farmers income as well as improving their living conditions

mainly through providing them with drinking water. These objectives have induced the

project to carry out notably (i) study of livestock development master plan and its sub-

sector of milk and meat in Rwanda, genetic improvement of its watering, (ii) seeds

multiplication and extension of agricultural techniques and (iii) creation of a network of

drinking water supply to serve 145,000 persons in 2020.

4.1.5 At the technical level, this project’s sustainability requires the continuation of

different actions undertaken so far. The decentralised agricultural services are certainly

going to work according to their functions, but there is especially the fact that farmers,

motivated by increasing marketing of milk to Kigali, are also going to act in such a way

so as to increase their production and thereby facilitate the task of technicians. This

synergy is going to contribute to the technical sustainability of this project and this more

so that, under the Mutara agricultural development project a study has been conducted.

This study which is not only intended to strengthen this project, but concretised also

through the financing of the corresponding project and in which is notably envisaged the

building of milk collection centres in Mutara. These infrastructures are absolutely

necessary in order not to limit the marketing of milk downstream.

4.1.6 Dairy cattle development support project. It aims at satisfying the domestic

cattle milk and meat demand all over the national territory, while increasing farmers

income. It also proposes to make materialise the major outputs cited in annex 4, which

14

consist of (i) improvement of productivity of livestock and (ii) construction and

implementation of infrastructures of collection, storage and marketing of livestock

products.

4.1.7 In view of the fact that this project is not yet completed, it is difficult to assess

its technical sustainability. Nevertheless, given its design which makes it a project meant

to strengthen the Mutara agricultural development project, notably concerning milk and

meat production, it is justified to say that this project has the qualities of being

sustainable.

4.1.8 Emergency agricultural production recovery project. This project aims to

increase production of white rice in its area of intervention and proposes for that reason to

rehabilitate the two schemes mentioned in Annex 4. As the rehabilitation works are not

yet completed it is not possible now to actually talk about sustainability. Although there

is apparently no technical impediment to this sustainability.

4.2 Economic and Financial Viability

4.2.1 Following the damage caused to infrastructure, plant and animal materials as

well as to human resources, shortage of agricultural inputs of all types and agricultural

production practically non-existent which is the aftermath of the war, it turned out that the

different projects ongoing during this period were hailed in Rwanda. It could not have

been otherwise, since it had then to start from the scratch. The pre-war performances

were thus gradually picking up and the financed projects have really contributed to the

reduction of food deficit. But the viability of these projects varies according to the sub-

sector concerned.

4.2.2 On the whole, the economic viability of the food production projects as they

are at the moment, will be limited in the course of time. As a matter of fact, although the

present production are still relatively adequate for the regions concerned, it will not be

long when the high population pressure in Rwanda will demand increasingly high

performances from these projects, which they will find difficult to satisfy due to the

reasons given in paragraph 4.1.3.

4.2.3 From traditionalist agriculture, currently determined by the search for

subsistence, it will then become increasingly modern, through the dictates of events, that

is a change by rather economic demands and hence more effective. But the development

of this process is likely to take a long time if it is not accelerated.

4.2.4 Regarding animal production, it turns out to be more dynamic if one considers

it according to the results attained in the regions concerned by the projects financed by

ADB (ref. para. 3.2.1). It will still be more in future, thanks to predictable development of

this sub-sector through the ongoing dairy cattle development project financed to

strengthen the Mutara agricultural development project’s gains that are already high

performing.

4.2.5 Concerning the financial viability of these projects, the problem does not really

arise in these terms, given the evident high demand as compared to supply, and this for

sufficiently long time until the change of the Rwandan agriculture.

15

4.3 Social Viability

The gains brought about by these projects to the rural population consist

mainly of community infrastructures, such as feeder roads, health centres and schools.

Like all structures, they require maintenance and upkeep and consequently they are not

likely to last if the standard of living of the beneficiary population does not make it

possible to finance the corresponding expenses. It seems also that there is an

interdependence between the different factors of sustainability of the said projects.

4.4 Institutional Aspects

4.4.1 Execution of the different projects financed by the Bank is ensured by either a

project implementation unit, which is created for that purpose, or by the Ministerial

Department concerned. In the two cases, the different officers in charge are motivated

financially and or materially. At the end of the projects, however, these material or

financial motivations stop the financing and consequently the zeal of the officers in charge

is no longer high as before. This is basically likely to reflect adversely on the projects, if

the beneficiaries are themselves not sufficiently motivated to assume responsibility. This

situation is going to be that of Byumba agricultural development project Phase II and

probably also that of the Emergency agricultural production recovery project. The case of

Mutara agricultural development project and the dairy cattle rearing development project,

where the beneficiaries are keenly interested in innovations brought about by the project,

probably because they comprise mainly immigrated population who are seeking for more

than self-sufficiency.

4.4.2 Analysis of the facts shows that sustainability of a project at the institutional

level is linked with its drawing up at the outset. A drawing up exercise which must seek

for the mechanism that ensures its sustainability without any significant assistance from

outside. Such, perhaps, will be the case of the dairy cattle rearing development support

project which will be autonomous, under the existing services, after the normal

completion of the project.

4.5 Inter-sectoral Aspects

4.5.1 Two sectors are touched by implementation of these agricultural projects

financed by the Bank. That of environment and that of industry. Environmental

protection has become an indispensable factor for sustaining the Rwandan agriculture,

whereas the agro-industry stands out as an unavoidable engine factor for its development.

4.5.2 In view of the sharp slope noted on the lands of Rwandan hills, as well as

deforestation observed on both the hills and in the north-west, on low lands, it has become

imperative to check the destruction of the natural heritage by giving a particular attention

to the control of soil degradation, loss of arable lands and destruction of forests. Non

protection would lead to inescapable erosion of hill lands through landslide and steady but

sure devastation of the remaining sparse forest heritage. Against this background

therefore one is obliged to take environmental actions, such as erosion control and

production of forestry seeds which have been integrated into the Rwandan agricultural

projects.

16

4.5.3 The change of agricultural products downstream, which moreover supposes the

existence of a functional marketing system, will contribute considerably to increase in

demand and will accordingly be one of the principal engines of agricultural development,

either in the agricultural sector or in the industrial sector.

4.6 Repercussions of the AIDS Pandemic

4.6.1 It is at present admitted that the HIV/AIDS has become much more a

development than health or human resources problem. In fact, the HIV/AIDS is an

impediment to sustainable development and at the same time a factor of poverty. With the

massive population displacements during the war and the 1994 genocide, Rwanda has

become more vulnerable to the HIV/AIDS pandemic. In 1986 the prevalence rate was

3.6%, in the rural area, it now stands at 10.8%. The rural population is likely to lose a

greater part of its productive members in the long run, if this rate was maintained or

increased.

4.6.2 The numerous orphans left by the war, to which will be added those from

AIDS, could only be toppling over, without the support of their parents, in a permanent

poverty, thereby inducing disastrous consequences on the economic growth of the

country, in general, and agricultural productivity in particular. Appropriate measures are

thus needed to at least alleviate in a significant manner the devastating effects of this

pandemic which thwarts the achievement of agricultural development objectives set.

5. IMPACT ON INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT

5.1 The implementation Units, differently named according to the projects,

normally ensure implementation of different actions planned during appraisal in

collaboration, both and accordingly, with the conventional services of the Ministry of

Agriculture and other ministries. However, alongside this conventional structure, other

organisations or associations have been created and/or requested for the smooth running

of all and ensure the achievement of the objectives.

5.2 Sales counters have been installed under the Byumba agricultural development

projects phase II and that of Mutara to see to the distribution of different agricultural

inputs which the beneficiaries need. For these procurements, the beneficiaries can get in

contact with cooperative associations grouped into people’s Banks to obtain the needed

credits. At present, there are 147 agencies of people’s banks in Rwanda, each

corresponding to a cooperative association, grouping on the whole 243,455 members with

a deposit of FRW 13,785 million. The borrowers (farmers or not) should compulsorily be

members of the cooperative and be in possession of a material guarantee (farm, house)

and a joint and several guarantees, created by a group of 20 persons. The credits

reimbursement rate was 0% before the war, but now it stands at 80% which manifests a

real zeal in this area.

5.3 The projects financed by the Bank have thus contributed in a way to the

development and strengthening of the people’s banks, widely spread out at present in

Rwanda. On the other hand, they have also, especially those in the stock breeding sector,

initiated the establishment of different centres or organisations needed for the smooth

operating of the sub-sectors concerned, such as the regional laboratories for veterinary

17

analyses, the epidemio-survaillance network and centres for collection and cooling of milk

which will soon be created.

5.4 It is at present difficult to assess the real impact of these institutions on the

development of the Rwandan agricultural sector, but it is easy to affirm that their

extension to the national level depends closely on the level of motivation of farmers to

produce much more than in the past. In other words, development of these institutions is

linked with the production aimed at.

6. PERFORMANCE

6.1 Factors Touching the Performance and Results

6.1.1 The different projects concerned by this evaluation have made it possible to

achieve a number of results which fall within the scope of the set objectives, that is to say

food security and enhancement of the welfare of the rural population. It will probably

hold good for the swamps development project whose study is at present ongoing. On the

whole, therefore, the results have been attained or will be soon attained, but the question

which arises is nevertheless whether the results, though suitable, are adequate to

contribute effectively to the actual development of the agricultural sector?. Experience

seems not to confirm this clear logic, more so that the set objectives remain simply

qualitative and are not often quantified (Ref. para.2.4.5) or more exactly are not

sufficiently ambitious to start a real development.

6.1.2 In other words, the attainment of the results, which are mainly qualitative,

envisaged during appraisal is certainly necessary, but not enough to guarantee their

effective and sustainable contribution to attain the set sectoral objectives which are

reduction of food deficit and enhancement of the welfare of the rural population, as part of

modern and non traditional agriculture. Other factors, already cited in paragraph para.

2.4.1, 4.1.3 and 4.2.2 seem to be the cornerstone of every accelerated and sustainable

agricultural development. The advanced participatory method by donors is not dissimilar,

except that it must be comprehended as a participation of endogenous and not exogenous

origin. The farmers themselves must feel the urgent need to participate in the different

actions, but they should not in any way whatsoever be compelled to do so ; nor by any

sensitization, nor by actions of that nature. It is under such conditions and such conditions

only that the participatory method is capable of boosting a true, accelerated and

sustainable growth, because it is based on a real internal zest. It is under these conditions

also that farmers can effectively take over the different actions envisaged by the project

and act consequently as real economic operators and enter the era of modern agriculture.

6.2 Borrower’s Performance in Drawing-up Projects

6.2.1 The four projects being implemented during the period 1994-2001 drew their

source either from a previous project or from an agricultural development master plan

prepared earlier on, or from a general Rwandan agriculture rehabilitation programme

respectively (Ref. para.2.4.3). These projects aimed at objectives which established their

origin, but in view of the events of 1994 and their outcome which modified the context,

the borrower was obliged to request, with good reasons, for some modifications whose

immediate objectives are to rehabilitate and boost the agricultural sector through (i)

18

improvement of food security, (ii) restoration of livestock population and its genetic

improvement, (iii) rehabilitation of natural resources and (iv) rise in farmers income.

6.2.2 As the projects concerned by this evaluation were designed before 1994 or

followed projects already completed by that time, it is not possible to actually evaluate the

performance of the borrower in the drawing up of projects. Their only intervention

consisted in adapting the ongoing projects to the post-conflict context, with the immediate

objectives of rehabilitation and giving impulse to the agricultural sector.

6.3 Borrower’s Performance in Implementation

6.3.1 The tragic events of 1994 and the disastrous consequences, which ensued, have

seriously weakened the Borrower’s capacity of implementation at all levels. The

destruction of most of the community infrastructure in the rural area, disappearance of

human resources, both in respect of farmers and technicians and professional staff of all

types, massacred or emigrated, have placed the country practically in a situation which

obliged it to manage with the means at its disposal.

6.3.2 The projects financed by the Bank in effect started on this base, characterised

notably by very few infrastructure, due to almost complete absence of inputs, plant and

animal materials and to a glaring inadequate human resources. Despite this environment

which is not conducive to any type of actions, however, the borrower assumed his

responsibilities and got itself organised with available resources to speed up and implement

the different projects which were then still beneficiaries of Bank financing.

6.3.3 Although below what could have been attained in normal times, the results are

there to testify to the positive and courageous efforts of the borrower: (i) the Byumba

region has at present attained the pre-war production level, (ii) that of Mutara supplies over

90% milk from the dairy industries of the country, (iii) the dairy cattle rearing development

support project is consolidating the gains of livestock breeding at the national level in

general and in Mutara in particular, through mainly the establishment of milk collection

and cooling centres, (iv) the Emergency agricultural production recovery project led to

rice production on two schemes (Rwamagama and Bugarama) nearly abandoned because

of being in a bad state and lack of supervision and (v) without forgetting the studies

embarked upon or ongoing (a) of which the study of a master plan for the rural

development of the Ruhengeri Prefecture, that led to the drawing up of a feasibility study

of Ruhengeri, development plan, but unfortunately has no longer been considered to be

current, (b) feasibility study of a tea factory, which is still waiting for its time to find

private financing and (c) swamps development master plan study, already completed and

which opened up onto a feasibility study of the development of 6000 ha which is ongoing

at present.

6.4 Bank Performance in Preparation and Appraisal of Projects

6.4.1 Be it for the Byumba agricultural development project, or that of Mutara, or

dairy cattle rearing development support project, ADB has every time based its

intervention on analysis of available information about similar projects previously

implemented or a master plan for the development of the region concerned. This

procedure has enabled it to draw lessons from the past and to better apprehend the different

constraints which could have been an impediment to the achievement of the objectives set.

19

And it is only out of these analyses that the aforementioned projects were implemented,

each with its own peculiarities. It is a fact that none of these projects stemmed from

coherent investment programme of the agricultural and rural development policy (Ref.

para. 2.4.2), but their qualitative objectives are in conformity with both the top priorities of

the Bank and the objectives set by the country under Rwanda Vision 2020.

6.4.2 Concerning the Emergency agricultural production recovery project, it has

been financed by the Bank to meet a manifested specific need within a post-war context,

certainly apparently ad hoc in the interval and in the past, but which in fact, has earlier on

been identified somehow. The Bank had in fact planned to contribute to the financing of

an irrigated farm development under the Mutara agricultural development project. It was

then its first intervention in the sector in Rwanda, but in view of the withdrawal of other

donors after the 1994 events known to all and sundry, this component has been put aside,

owing to lack of financing. Its interest, however, remains essential, in view of (i) the

reduction in the size of the plots of land in Rwanda and (ii) lands that are too sharp and

sloppy on the hillsides; and the Bank’s decision to go ahead in financing this project, is not

only due to the urgent need to assist the country after the war, but also due to its conviction

that irrigation schemes can become for the country significant assets in its development,

provided that the beneficiaries act as true economic operators so as to draw the maximum

out of them.

6.4.3 Though all these projects are in keeping with the objectives of reduction of

food deficit of the rural population, and enhancement of their welfare and that, moreover,

they are relatively in conformity with Bank top priorities as regards the search for

productivity and environmental protection, it is also true that it is strongly advisable that in

future, an agricultural sector investment programme be first reviewed so that projects

financed become more coherent among themselves and hence more effective for the global

development of the country. The agricultural sector investment programme will be based

on in-depth sectoral and sub-sectoral studies, with a view to identifying the different

potentials and constraints to agricultural and rural development of the country and of which

the analysis will help to draw up a number of projects that are much more coherent among

themselves and which would have as objectives compliance with Rwandan Vision 2020.

Moreover, it is within this spirit that the study of the agricultural sector and sub-sector of

Rwanda, will be conducted on bilateral financing, as part of the work programme of the

Operation Department concerned by the Bank.

6.5 Bank Performance in Supervision

Supervisions carried out by the Bank in terms of quantity are relatively satisfactory

during the period covered by this evaluation. Its supervisions have been carried out

according to Bank patterns. Unfortunately, however, they have still not helped to resolve a

number of complains expressed by the projects and which have generally caused a few

delays. Some of these delays are in effect due to communication problems, but others are

due to the lack of decision-making power attributed to project officers of the Bank.

20

7. EVALUATION NOTES

7.1 Bank Assistance

7.1.1 Bank assistance in Rwanda over the period indicated is relatively satisfactory

regarding the conformity of the qualitative objectives set in relation to top priorities. There

are visible results, but it is not certain that these results can actually contribute to the

transformation of the present subsistence agriculture into modern, economic agriculture,

base of all accelerated, equitable and sustainable agricultural development.

7.1.2 Considerable, indeed fundamental improvements can and must be brought

about so that programmed actions are carried out effectively and that the induced impacts

can unfold towards the desired goal. If the problem, cited notably in paragraphs 1.4.10 and

1.4.11, is not tackled seriously, Bank assistance to the agricultural sector is likely to only

record perpetuation of mediocre results as currently noted, which is characterised by low

productivity, in spite of all the investments made in the sector.

7.2 Borrower’s performance

The efforts made by the borrower to implement the projects concerned by this

evaluation are on the whole satisfactory if the context in which the country was, during that

period, is considered. The post-war demands emergency actions and without delay, but

that has not prevented the borrower to think about the future, testimony of some studies

conducted including that relating to the swamps development master plan, protection of

catchment areas and conservation of soils. It is now time for the borrower to coordinate in

harmonious, precise and coherent manner future actions to be undertaken within the

framework of Rwanda Vision 2020, through the drawing up of the agricultural sector

investment programme.

8. CONCLUSIONS, LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

8.1 Conclusions

8.1.1 Analysis of operations which underscored Bank assistance in Rwanda between

1994-2001 helps to conclude that the different projects financed have globally contributed

to reduce food deficit of the rural population and to enhance their welfare, despite the

disastrous condition under which they were implemented and where human resources were

desperately lacking.

8.1.2 On completion of these projects, some constraints were identified (ref. Annex

4). They relate mainly to (i) slowness noted at the various stages of their implementation,

(ii) frequent change of officers in charge lead to incoherence and delays in the actions

undertaken and (iii) the lack of human resources with all its implications.

8.1.3 Beyond these implementation constraints it has also been noted (i) the

existence of another type of constraints relating to beneficiaries reaction to diverse national

and technical contribution of projects (ref. para. 1.4.7, 2.2.3, 2.2.4 and 2.4.1) and which is

the origin of low productivity and hence agricultural projects relatively low impacts on the

development of the sector and (ii) absence of coherent investment programme in the

21

agricultural sector (Ref. para. 2.4.2), permitting to better coordinate the operations there

and increase their impacts on the country’s development.

8.2 Lessons

8.2.1 Regarding the problems linked with projets implementation it is advisable to

draw the following lessons:

(i) faced with the slowness noted during the implementation of projects, it is

necessary to be aware of the important role which can be played through the

use of different means of communication currently available and easily

accessible, both in Rwanda and in the Bank (telephone, fax, e-mail, express

mail including DHL), because their continuous use and as often as necessary in

one way or the other, between the project officers in the country and officers in

charge of projects and disbursement in the Bank, will help to resolve this

problem about which the various interested parties are complaining now;

(ii) the relatively frequent change of officers in charge of projects, brings about

adverse effects through the loss of certain non recorded information and

through the lack of coherent monitoring of actions undertaken, implying

therefore the implementation of appropriate measures with a view to

remedying them ; these measures must be sought within the framework of

general drawing up of the project, which must put emphasis on a mechanism

permitting to either mitigate the disadvantages or avoid them.

(iii) the lack of human resources following the events of 1994, was nevertheless a

general problem in Rwanda, it must be rapidly resolved at the projects level, to

avoid the impediments which that can constitute for their smooth

implementation; alongside the short, medium and long-term training, well

targeted technical assistance can also be planned.

8.2.2 Concerning the problem posed by the weak reaction of beneficiaries to the

different contributions financed by the Bank, it is worth henceforth considering it as a real

limiting factor (ref. para. 2.2.3) and to proceed to the feasibility studies of projects that can

and should fall within the scope of agricultural sector investment programme with a view

to financing them later on. The terms of reference of these studies should particularly put

emphasis on the ways and means required for the search and establishment of a group of

beneficiaries with intrinsic capacity to meet positively and effectively the different

demands of the project. Such approach will make the project concerned a real

development nucleus, which can extend over and beyond the area directly concerned, and

in essence, become a sustainable project, because endowed with real endogenous zeal.

This approach will also ensure the change of subsistence agriculture into modern

agriculture, guarantee of a true agricultural and rural development.

8.2.3 On the other hand the absence of agricultural sector investment programme

(Ref. para. 6.4.3) is a shortcoming which must henceforth be made good so that projects to

be implemented should be better drawn up and coordinated with a view to achieving the

objectives of agricultural and rural development which Rwanda has set as part of its

poverty reduction strategy paper and its Vision 2020 for the country. This agricultural

sector investment programme must be based on an in-depth study of the sector and sub-

22

sectors concerned. Its terms of reference should notably insist on identification of basic

constraints to development of the sector (Ref. para 1.4.11), hierarchical organisation in the

course of time and the qualitative and quantitative objectives to be achieved, harmonisation

and coordination of interventions so as to avoid incoherence and actions which hamper

their implementation.

8.3 Recommendations

8.3.1 To improve Bank assistance in the agricultural sector in Rwanda, it is

recommended to:

a) plan, under every project to be implemented, the provision of ways and means

needed to actually facilitate communication and consequently the contact

between project officers in Rwanda and officers in charge of project and

disbursement in the Bank (Ref. para. 8.2.1.i). This will facilitate and

significantly improve projects implementation. Introduction of this measure

becomes the responsibility of the appraisal team.

b) plan, during the drawing up of the project (feasibility or preparatory study by

the Bank), the study of a mechanism (Ref. para. 8.2.1.ii) which enables it to

help (i) to limit the shortcomings of its professional staff or (ii) to provide the

needed and adequate means so that the said professional staff make them

integral part, which would do away with dependency. Implementation of this

recommendation will be the responsibility of Rwanda in collaboration with the

Operation Department concerned.

c) plan, during each project appraisal (i) a « scholarship » component to enable

the short, medium and long-term training of nationals, and attenuate the

immediate requirements (ii) a « technical assistance » component adapted to

each case, which may be of short or medium duration, or in a form of repeated

short-period missions according to need, but each time assisted by nationals

(Ref. para. 8.2.1.iii). This measure is the responsibility of the appraisal team.

d) assist the country to conduct sectoral and sub-sectoral studies with a view to

drawing up an agricultural sector investment programme which is based on the

terms of reference described in paragraph 8.2.3. The responsibility of the

drawing up of this programme goes to the country in collaboration with the

Operation Department concerned.

e) give importance to the financing of project studies, whose terms of reference

are in conformity with those defined in paragraph 8.2.2. The responsibility of

this measure goes to Rwanda in collaboration with the Operation Department

concerned.

8.3.2 These few recommendations aim not only to improve Bank assistance in

implementation, by giving greater place to communication but also and especially the need

to find a new breed of beneficiaries, acting as true economic operators, capable of taking

along their entourage into a real development system, that is to say based on an

accelerated, continuing and sustainable growth.

Annex 1

Page 1 of 2

EVALUATION OF BANK ASSISTANCE TO THE

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR OF RWANDA

MATRIX OF RECOMMENDATIONS AND MONITORING ACTIONS

Principal Observations RECOMMENDATIONS PROPOSED

MONITORING

MEASURES

ORGAN

RESPONSIBLE

PROJECTS IMPLEMENTATION Implementation of the

different actions envisaged to

achieve the set objectives

encountered a number of

obstacles of which the major

ones are presented below:

1. slowness noted at the

different stages of

implementation;

2. lack of human resources.

1. The slowness noted at

the different stages of

implementation of projects

could be corrected by taking

into account, during

appraisal, in each project, a

communication component

endowed with the amount

required for procurement

and implementation of all

the means and equipment

needed, including e-mail, to

facilitate this communication

and thereby reduce the

delays .

2. The lack of human

resources can be mitigated

through the continuous and

discontinuous use of

technical assistance, and can

even be in the form of short-

period missions. But in the

same way, it is equally

advisable that each financed

project envisages a training

of short, medium and long

duration for a number of

young Rwandans in areas

where this shortage is felt.

1. See to its

implementation during

each new appraisal and

supervision or,

according to the case,

modify the list of

current goods and

services, if need be.

2. See to this rational

use of technical

assistance during each

new appraisal or, if

necessary, modify the

list of present goods

and services so as to

find solution to the lack

of possible human

resources.

OCAR

OCAR

Annex 1

Page 2 of 2

Bank Strategy

1. The results attained by the

different projects financed by

the Bank, though showing

shortcomings, can on the

whole be considered to be

fairly satisfactory in

comparison with the specific

qualitative objectives of each

of the projects, but it does not

seem that they can become

the base of modern

agriculture, capable of

initiating an accelerated,

continuing and sustainable

agricultural development.

This doubt originates from the

relative low productivity

obtained, despite the

resources implemented, which

seems to be explained by the

predominance of traditionalist

motivation of beneficiaries.

2 Rwanda has no investment

programme in the agricultural

sector. This can be a weak

point, through the lack of

coherence and harmonisation

of operations, in optimisation

of financings granted to

projects of the sector.

1. To solve the problem of

motivation of beneficiaries,

it is recommended to carry

out studies, whose terms of

reference will put emphasis

on the ways and means

required for research and

forming a group of

beneficiaries having intrinsic

capacity to respond

positively and effectively to

the different demands of the

project.

2. Sectoral and sub-sectoral

studies must be conducted to

support the drawing up of

the agricultural sector

investment programme, on

the other hand all the

projects featuring in it

should have quantitative,

ambitious and well defined

objectives.

1. Prepare the terms of

reference (TOR) of this

study and carry out its

implementation

2. Prepare the TOR of

these sectoral and sub-

sectoral studies and

have them conducted.

Proceed at the right

time to the feasibility

studies of identified

projects.

RWANDA-

OCAR

RWANDA-

OCAR

Annex 2

SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND SECTORAL INDICATORS

Area : 26 338 km2 (2 633 800 ha)

Population : 8.310 million inhab.

Growth Rate : 2.50%

Density : 337 inhab./km2

0-14 years : 44.32%

15-64 years : 53.77%

65 years and above : 1.91%

Fertility index : 5.98 %

Life expectancy : 39.99 %

Literacy rate : 48.3 %

Population below the poverty line : 64.1 %

Urban Population : 6.10 %

Growth rate (urban) : 4.15 %

GDP (2000) : US$1.5 billion

Exports (non goods and services) : US$ 64 million

Imports (non goods and services) : US$272 million

GDP/per capita : US$260

Inflation : 2.1%

Rural Population : 94%

Cultivable area : 1.4 million ha

Cultivated area : 0.840 million ha

Population density/ha cultivated : 9 inhab./ha

Agricultural sector contribution to GNP : 40 %

Agricultural sector contribution to export revenues : 90 %

Annex 3

COMBINED RESULTS OF BANK LOAN OPERATIONS IN THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

Bank loan operations in the agricultural sector have on the whole helped to attain the

following major results:

1. In the Byumba region: (i) rehabilitation of most of the buildings and procurement of

means of transport and computer materials (objectives achieved at 90%), (ii) development of

234 ha of swamps (Warufu) and identification of 552 individuals and 10 associations to

benefit from it, (iii) preparation of 150 ha of agroforestry nurseries and distribution of 15

million forest plants, (iv) establishment of a seed-bearer field over 950 ha and distribution of

730t of fertilisers and 23t of pest and fungus control products to farmers, (v) rehabilitation of

32.7 km of earth roads, vi) health cover of all the projects communes, vii) artificial

insemination of cows carried out at about 33% of the set objective and viii) projections of

research/development, support to rural area and training have been realized approximately at

50%, 70% and 80% respectively.

2. In the Mutara province: (i) establishment of a supervision and sensitisation

mechanism, (ii) construction of six hillside reservoirs, (iii) distribution, relatively low, of

selected seeds, (iv) improvement of the performance of cattle, in terms of gain of weight and

quantity of milk produced by cow, (v) afforestation of 6,000 ha in the project area and 5,000

ha outside the area, but of which only 40% only remained in good state due to termites and

damage caused by cattle and (vi) distribution of water in four districts of the Mutara province

with 350 km PVC pipes laid, many reservoirs of which 3 of 400 m3 and 1 of 200 m3 and 250

standpipes for supplying in future about 110,000 people.

3. In the two irrigated schemes of Rwamagana and Bugarama: establishment of adequate

technical supervision has made it possible, although the actual rehabilitation works have not

yet been completed, to recrop the two schemes concerned and obtain a yield of 3t/ha/crop for

Rwamagama and 4t/ha/crop for Bugarama and at double crop a year.

4. At the national level : though at the national level, the dairy cattle rearing development

support project has no result yet, since it has just started. This project is going to consolidate

among other things the results obtained in Mutara.

Annex 4

Page 1 of 5

SUMMARY OF BANK PROJECTS IN THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

1. Byumba Agricultural Development Phase II

Objectives

The Byumba agricultural development project phase II, approved in October 1990 and

now nearing completion, had as main objectives to increase agricultural production,

facilitate environmental protection, develop economic possibilities for the landless,

strengthen the associations and ease access to credit, promote livestock breeding,

rehabilitate and establish infrastructure (earth roads and buildings) and establish

community infrastructure.

Expected Outputs

To achieve these objectives it has been planned to implement the following actions: (i)

national capacity building for improved seeds and plants supply and conservation of soils,

(ii) genetic improvement, veterinary care and animal feed, (iii) development and

dissemination of adequate agricultural techniques, (iv) development of swamps so as to

increase availability of arable lands, (v) consolidation of infrastructure and rehabilitation

of the communes principal earth link roads, (vi) organisation of farmers into associations,

development of micro-credit and strengthening of community infrastructure and (vii)

training of project agents and farmers groupings as well as women literacy drive.

Status of Implementation

The physical implementation of the project is presented at present as follows: (i)

rehabilitation of most of the buildings and procurement of means of transport and

computer materials (objectives achieved at 90%), (ii) development of 234 ha of swamps

(Warufu) and identification of 552 individuals and 10 associations to benefit from them,

(iii) establishment of 150 ha of agroforestry nursery and distribution of 15 million of

forest plants, (iv) establishment of seed-breeder fields on 950 ha and distribution of 730t

of fertilisers and 23t of pest and fungus control products to farmers, (v) rehabilitation of

32.7 km earth roads, vi) artificial insemination of cows, carried out at about 33% of the

objective and viii) projections of research/development, support to rural area and training

have been carried out approximately at 50%, 70% and 80%.

Problems Encountered

Implementation of this project encountered a number of problems of which the

principal ones are presented below: (i) frequent change of professional staff (the

coordinator has been changed four times since the start up of the project) who could

therefore not benefit fully from technical assistance, (ii) communication problems

between the project management unit and ADB, leading to some slowness with respect to

disbursement and responses on the lapse of time basis, (iii) difficulties due to the demands

of joint financing of certain components between ADF and IFAD and (iv) suspension of

disbursement in 1997, 1999-2000 and 2000-2001 causing considerable delays in the

payment of entrepreneurs and suppliers.

Annex 4

Page 2 of 5

2. Mutara.Agricultural Development Project

Objectives.

The Mutara agricultural development project aimed at reduction of food deficit and

increase in farmers income and their welfare, including drinking water supply.

Expected Outputs.

After the war and in view of the withdrawal of other donors (Kuwait Fund, OPEC

and CCCE), the project has been reformulated and rescaled. To achieve the

aforementioned objectives, it was therefore planned to implement the following principal

actions: (i) livestock master plan study and its sub-sector milk and meat, genetic

improvement of cattle, its feed, its health and its watering, (ii) multiplication of seeds and

extension of agricultural techniques and (iii) establishment of drinking water supply

network intended to serve 145,000 persons in 2020. It is worth noting that the irrigation

development component, whose cost represented more than half of the project total cost,

was left out after the war, in view of the withdrawal of other donors. This component

would have been the first operation of ADB in the irrigated sub-sector.

Status of Implementation.

This project has made it possible in its area of operation for (i) ) establishment of a

supervision and sensitisation mechanism, (ii) construction of six hillside reservoirs, (iii)

distribution, relatively low, of selected seeds, (iv) improvement of the performance of

cattle, in terms of gain of weight and quantity of milk produced by cow, (v) afforestation

of 6,000 ha in the project area and 5,000 ha outside the area, but of which only 40% only

remained in good state due to termites and damage caused by cattle and (vi) distribution

of water in four districts of the Mutara province with 350 km PVC pipes laid, many

reservoirs of which 3 of 400 m3 and 1 of 200 m3 and 250 standpipes.

Problems Encountered

The major problems encountered during the implementation of this project are

presented hereafter : (i) lack of competent professional staff, (ii) suspension of

disbursement (for almost two years) for non execution of audit reports and non

presentation of draft reformulation of components demanded by the Bank, (iii) delay due

to incompetence of a company which was nevertheless recruited (there was no other one)

and (iv) delays of disbursement both by ADB and the counterpart fund.

3. EMERGENCY AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION RECOVERY PROJECT

Objectives

The main objective of this project is to increase white rice production in its area of

operations.

Annex 4

Page 3 of 5

Expected Outputs

Increase in rice production will be attained through (i) rehabilitation of the Bugarama

(800 ha) and Rwamagama (450 ha) irrigation schemes to be used for double cropping a

year, (ii) making available for the Rural Engineering and Soils Conservation Department,

qualified human resources including a technical assistant and high performing logistic

resources, (iii) development and exploitation of pilot swamps of Bishenyi (60 ha) and

Rugende (50 ha), (iv) creation of FRW 80 million guarantee fund to support credit

operations for farmers and (v) setting up of a research-development mechanism and

training of national professional staff.

Status of Implementation

Although, strictly speaking, the rehabilitation works are not yet completed, the

carrying out of an adequate technical supervision has made it possible to recrop the two

irrigation schemes concerned and obtain a yield of 3t/ha/crop for Rwamagama and 4

t/ha/crop for Bugarama and double cropping a year. The project officers hope to obtain

1t/ha more for each of the two schemes after completion of the rehabilitation works

scheduled for ending 2002 and ending 2003 for Bugarama and Rwamagama respectively.

Problems Encountered

The major problem encountered since the start up of the project stems from the

slowness of disbursement. The project has benefited from three disbursements (working

capital) since it entered into force on 1-04-99.

4. Dairy Cattle Rearing Development Support Project

Objectives

The objective of the project is to satisfy the domestic demand for cattle milk and meat

throughout the national territory, while increasing farmers income.

Expected Outputs

Achievement of these objectives entails the following outputs: (i) organisation,

equipment, training and supervision of grassroot operators, (ii) local cross-breed with high

performing breed and dissemination of good products, (iii) establishment of appropriate

veterinary services including notably the network of epidemiologic supervision, quality

control, disease prevention campaign and provision of veterinary inputs, (iv) improvement

in the management of grazing land and animal feed, (v) construction and implementation

of collection, storage and livestock products marketing infrastructure, (vi) capacity

building for the national services involved in implementation of the project and (vi)

establishment and implementation of the project management unit.

Status of Implementation

The project was put into effect on 4-07-01 and the first working capital disbursed in

December 2001, and a counterpart fund of FRW 40 million. This is to say that this project

has practically not implemented anything yet, consequently there is no impact to mention.

Annex 4

Page 4 of 5

Problems Encountered

No particular problem worths pointing out at this stage.

5. Rural Development Master Plan of the Ruhengeri Province.

Objectives.

The objectives of the study is to identify a rural development project in the Ruhengeri

province and study its feasibility

Expected Outputs

This study should first tackle the rural development master plan of the Ruhengeri

province, identify a project under this plan and prepare its feasibility.

Status of Implementation

The study is completed as planned and has led to identification of a project whose

implementation is no longer a current issue, since IFAD is financing a similar project in

the same area.

Problems Encountered

Interruption of the implementation of the study for 23 months due to war, which led to

an amendment for extension of the implementation period. But the whole action is

meaningless, because the study was no longer of current interest.

6. Study of the Nshili Kivu Tea Factory and Tea Sub-sector

Objectives

The objective is to draw up the feasibility study of a tea factory at Nshili Kivu as well

as the possibility of privatizing the tea sub-sector.

Expected Outputs

The outputs expected are (i) a feasibility report concerning installation of a tea factory

for the Nshili Kivu plantations and (ii) a report on the future management of the sub-

sector and notably on the possibilities of its privatisation.

Expected Outputs

The different reports expected were completed in 1999 and transmitted to the bank in

February 2000.

Annex 4

Page 5 of 5

Problems Encountered

This study was approved in December 1989, signed in May 1990, put into effect in

October 1993 and completed in 1999, that is after its effectiveness, for an implementation

period of 12 months.

7. Master Plan Study for Development of Swamps, Protection of Catchment

Areas and Conservation of Soils.

Objectives.

The objective of the study is to endow Rwanda with a tool for rational development of

the swamps, catchment areas and for conservation of soils

Outputs Expected.

The study should lead to (i) drawing up of a general master plan for development of

swamps and protection of catchment areas and (ii) feasibility studies, preliminary design

and detailed engineering studies of a first portion of 5,000 net hectares, or 6,000 gross

hectares.

Status of Implementation

The master plan for development of swamps and protection of catchment areas is at

present completed. The approach adopted in this study is division of the territory into

agro-climatic zones and into agro-pedologic zones. This division makes it possible to

place the country in categories, which could later on facilitate decision-making in the area.

What remains to be done is feasibility study relating to a portion of 6,000 gross hectares as

well as detailed engineering study and engineering design.

Problems Encountered : Nothing worth pointing out now.

Annex 5

Page 1 of 5

EVALUATION OF BANK ASSISTANCE TO THE

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR OF RWANDA

POINTS

Interpretation of points:

4 : very satisfactory

3 : satisfactory

2 : unsatisfactory

1 : very unsatisfactory

Evaluation of Bank Strategy

INDICATORS POINT JUSTIFICATIONS

Relevance 3 The strategy adopted by the country in the

1994 context is on the whole in conformity

with that of the Bank.

Effectiveness 2.5 The 1994 context made implementation of

projects difficult, more so that the set

objectives were not precise quantitatively.

GENERAL POINT 2.75 .

Evaluation of Results

INDICATORS POINT JUSTIFICATIONS

Design of projects 2.5 The design of projects has been on the

whole fairly satisfactory, in any case

adapted to the context of the time

Achievement of set objectives 2.5 The major results expected have been on the

whole obtained in terms of quality, but it is

difficult to assess them in terms of quantity

because the objectives were not clearly

quantified.

Probability for these projects to

continue to function after

completion

2.5 Given that these projects are especially

considered by beneficiaries as means to

ensure their subsistence, they will continue,

as well as can be expected, to keep them in

good state. But this sustainability will all

the same be relatively limited eventually..

GENERAL POINT 2.5

Annex 5

Page 2 of 5

Evaluation of Performance During Implementation

INDICATORS POINTS JUSTIFICATIONS

1. Observance of the general schedule 1 On the whole, the general

implementation plants were not

complied with, for diverse reasons

including the war situation which

prevailed at that time.

2. Observance of the limits of costs 2.5 On the whole there was no cost

overrun, on the contrary, certain

components could not be financed

because some donors withdrew due

to war.

3. Observance of clauses 3 The clauses were generally

respected, despite the delays.

4. Appropriateness of monitoring,

evaluation and preparation of reports

2.5 There was some relatively

satisfactory appropriateness between

monitoring, evaluation and

preparation of reports, but the

prevailing context reduced its

impacts on the quality of

implementation.

5. Satisfactory operations 2.5 The projects concerned by this

evaluation were globally

implemented in a relatively

satisfactory manner, despite the

disastrous context which they found

themselves.

TOTAL 11.5

Global evaluation (average) 2.3

Annex 5

Page 3 of 5

Global Evaluation of Borrower Performance

INDICATORS POINTS JUSTIFICATIONS

1. Identification 2.5 The projects form part of the

national priorities, but they have

not always considered the PSP

recommendations due to the

prevailing context in 1994

2. Preparation 2 Generally some actions were

undertaken before evaluation but no

logical framework was established.

3. Evaluation 3 No matrix was prepared except for

the dairy project (2000), the

appraisal reports were of good

quality, the risks and assumptions

were globally analysed, although

sometimes partially ; the different

phases of processing of the

appraisal reports were monitored.

4. Supervision 3 At least, one mission was

undertaken a year during

implementation; the supervision

reports were generally in

conformity with the operations

manual; the period for processing

some project documents are

relatively long, but the reasons are

diverse, originating from both the

Borrower and the Bank.

General evaluation (average)

2.6

Annex 5

Page 4 of 5

Global Evaluation of Borrower Performance

INDICATORS POINTS JUSTIFICATIONS

1. Preparation :

a) relevance of operations in

relation to national policies and

strategies,

3

The operations were on the

whole justified

2. Implementation:

a) quality of measures taken for

implementation.

b) observance of the clauses in

time limit

c) Compliance with the

schedules

d) observance of the limits of

costs.

2.5

2.5

2

3.5

The implementation units often

changed heads, which disturbed

coherence of actions, but overall

everything went on well.

A lot of delays but the clauses

were on the whole complied

with

Some schedules were not

observed, for known reasons

Practically no cost overrun

3. Reports:

a) compliance with guidelines

2.5

Generally complied with

GENERAL POINT 2.66

Annex 5

Page 5 of 5

Evaluation of Bank Assistance

INDICATORS POINTS JUSTIFICATIONS

1. Global evaluation of results 2.5

The results obtained are on the

whole relatively satisfactory in

relation to the objectives set by

projects.

2. Comparison of results obtained

in terms of yields compared with

the existing potential

2.0 The results obtained are

generally far below the potential

allowed by the resources

implemented.

3. Global quality of strategies

implemented by modernisation of

agriculture

2.0 The strategies implemented to

transform the agriculture are not

satisfactory, because they did

not take account of beneficiaries

reactions to the contributions of

projects.

GRAND TOTAL 6.5

AVERAGE 2.16

Annex 6

EFFECTS OF HIV/AIDS ON THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

1. According to UNAIDS statistics, it seems that Rwanda figures among the nine

countries most hit by HIV/AIDS. The seropositivity rates are on the increase in both the

urban centres and the rural areas. In 1999, the results taken from serologic surveys indicated

that over 400,000 Rwandans were living with HIV, of which 180,000 manifested the

symptoms and 40,000 died of them. AIDS has thus become one of the major causes of death

in Rwanda. The incidence of HIV infection was recently calculated at 11.1% in the urban

area and 10.8% in the rural area. The rate of infection is particularly high among the working

population, with more than 20% prevalence among women aged between 25 and 35 years.

By the year 2005, the gross mortality rate will increase by 40% owing to this disease and as

the rate of infection is almost identical in the urban area and in the rural area, the mortality

expressed in absolute value will be much more significant in the rural area than in the urban

area.

2. It is at present admitted that the HIV/AIDS has become much more a development

than health or human resources problem. In fact, the HIV/AIDS is an impediment to

sustainable development and at the same time a factor of poverty. With the massive

population displacements during the war and the 1994 genocide, Rwanda has become more

vulnerable to the HIV/AIDS pandemic. In 1986 the prevalence rate was 3.6%, in the rural

area; it now stands at 10.8%. The rural population is likely to lose, in the long run, a greater

part of its productive members, if this rate is maintained or increases.

3. The numerous orphans left by the war, to which will be added those from AIDS, could

only be swaying about, without the support of their parents, in a permanent poverty, thereby

inducing disastrous consequences on the economic growth of the country, in general, and

agricultural productivity in particular. Appropriate measures are thus needed to at least

alleviate in a significant manner the devastating effects of this pandemic which thwarts the

achievement of agricultural development objectives set.