rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3...

46
I5I3 SIdqAq DT4DLIOW SI3HM HTJA3H MI MOITDHJ3 35LEIVUA 3DMA5IUWT iliu .M bivsU 1IJ&bI3X .t bi&bi5I VOl 1q8 nbhoW HA123JI DIMOMOD1 IO UA5IUH JAMOITAM unvA afl3aucfaaaaM OOl 8ElO AM bhdmsD VQ1 '1iit ni iiinoiI no 33f1i3mnO3 fl3125I 31mOnO3I lo uawH IsnolisM rli io1 b&piq asw iqsq aiclT ioI sIwibsA r1inAh bn nsmilA nU 01 !thtai W .VQQ I nut 4aiaa5I '3iIo rh!sH how aidT .anoiaauib Ithq1d idt anivA rnshiM bits thvs1 aIwlD id5I dins 01 bits nsiaiaas AAIT moil as IIw as 5IIHM 3di oi niA no ,iijiilanl IsnoitnM rIi moi Insi a 'd b3iIoqqua aaw .a3!rnono3l 3iIdUL bits isD dtIs3H 111 ainsioiq d31sar a5Ia8W1o hsq ai iqaq aidT .bisvisll 01 3imono3Io uaiua IsnoitaM ili1o saodll ion bits atodius di1o 8aodi 315 beaa3tqx3 anoiniqo nA .r13153a351 1x3i 10 anoit33a 3tod .brna3t aldh HA .13auarbb .t bisibiSI bits 131111D .M bivsU 'd VQQI © iib313 hut larhi b3bivotq noiaaimt3q ti3ilqx3 iuorDiw b3ioup 3d am adqsiaisq owl b3x3 of ion .ywoa 3d1 01 fl3VI ai 33don © nibuI3ni

Transcript of rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3...

Page 1: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

I5I3 SIdqAq DT4DLIOW SI3HM

HTJA3H MI MOITDHJ3 35LEIVUA 3DMA5IUWT

iliu .M bivsU 1IJ&bI3X .t bi&bi5I

VOl 1q8 nbhoW

HA123JI DIMOMOD1 IO UA5IUH JAMOITAM unvA afl3aucfaaaaM OOl

8ElO AM bhdmsD VQ1 '1iit

ni iiinoiI no 33f1i3mnO3 fl3125I 31mOnO3I lo uawH IsnolisM rli io1 b&piq asw iqsq aiclT ioI sIwibsA r1inAh bn nsmilA nU 01 !thtai W .VQQ I nut 4aiaa5I '3iIo rh!sH

how aidT .anoiaauib Ithq1d idt anivA rnshiM bits thvs1 aIwlD id5I dins 01 bits nsiaiaas AAIT moil as IIw as 5IIHM 3di oi niA no ,iijiilanl IsnoitnM rIi moi Insi a 'd b3iIoqqua aaw

.a3!rnono3l 3iIdUL bits isD dtIs3H 111 ainsioiq d31sar a5Ia8W1o hsq ai iqaq aidT .bisvisll 01 3imono3Io uaiua IsnoitaM ili1o saodll ion bits atodius di1o 8aodi 315 beaa3tqx3 anoiniqo nA

.r13153a351

1x3i 10 anoit33a 3tod .brna3t aldh HA .13auarbb .t bisibiSI bits 131111D .M bivsU 'd VQQI © iib313 hut larhi b3bivotq noiaaimt3q ti3ilqx3 iuorDiw b3ioup 3d am adqsiaisq owl b3x3 of ion

.ywoa 3d1 01 fl3VI ai 33don © nibuI3ni

Page 2: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

3anfnuenI dflsH ni noibIo 3a1vbA 1aUEfbI33S .1. bisrki5l bns i!iuD .M bivsU

VOIô .oM iqs nbhoW 5HHM VQQI '(lut.

a3iffl0fI03I 3iIduq bns mD rIi1sH

TDAHT*1A

.anslq aaoios nthoa b3asd-Ath in thJa 'I3m ei3iIoq an,nuath iDIsd 13V0 3310d3 lsubivibnl

nid alsubivibni moil aaao1 '3n!3ffl3 :232201 lo a3qQ i± 2331Jbn1 noii331a 32i3vb5 rbu2

232201 bits bas313ni ai iiIidhv muimiq 33fli2 aaao1 8nhsrla Ath ;anslq noiw di oi brs3o11s

iol 1sikioq 3rIr aauaib 3W .abujani lo xliii li3Ifi voiqnn ol a3i3iloq 113th nihoiaib aiuani mofi

:o1qm3 10 aquoi ow iii ff01133132 3213vbs no 33n3b1v3 IE3rnqm3 hneiq bits aaao1 arhi

1io1 bits 1a1a niva) aflaurf3aaasM1o fIoi22irrirr1O) 33rhzwanI quoii) 3111 bits tiai3vunU btsvisll

a1iaiviriU di bmvisH tA .111331103 1r1B3i11rIia s al 1101133132 3213vbs aquoi rhiod it! .(ao1qm3

laom th11o 331! 3qqaaib 3111 ol b31 anslq 3nsiueni us ot hnuoms Isup3 ifs 3iudrIuno3 ol noieiQ3b

nisibiadua 'd b3nisIno3 nd asri ff01133132 3al3vbs DID 3111 IA .ais E nidjiw 3i1oq 2U013fl3

A .shir1iI '13V 311oq auoin Iaom 3111 nisnsm bits aiascl Icnoihoqoiq s no amuimtq

1203 rIgid iol its1u2ni31 rhliw b3lquo3 tn3miauibs Ath 3vif3oqao11311o 3vi133q20Iqlo noilsnidmo3

a3aaol 33ub31 01 bits 211ohn3 iol evitnth 3ishqolqqs 3bivolq ot sw s as gniaimolq am2 23253

.r1Oif312 3213vb5 mo

l3ausrIA33X .1. bwf 3151 131Iu .M bivsG un3mrn3voD lo 1ood3 b3nn3)1 231mon033 lo un3mtLsq3U

fla13vunU hisvisH 1ia13vinU btsvmH tif b3nn3A .1 niIo1 QV 8E!O AM 3gbhdmsD 81O AM gbhdmsD 5HHM bits

5I3M bits g1o.13dn1311u3b ub3.b1sv1srI. I gaAJsb1sr13h

Page 3: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

briE woing iom i1iq '(11thin31I1ib io3 5U3 rliIs3fI r1ir1 boqx3 oriw 2lEubivibnl

2ifIT .anslq 3irI3bom iom 3200(13 2i203 wol t3qx odw orli ;enEIq 33fIElIJ2fI! 3vi2n3qx3

.2i3)IIEm O3fIEllJ2fI! f1i1S3f1 (II fI33flO3 1S3i5I03fL lOIEffl £ 2i flOLt331O2 O213vbE b3!1E3 non3rnon3f1q

2insqi3rhEq o 233nq :23i3113i31fl0flu10 eaIo ooirli o bs! o !Eiin3oq 3fIi 2fr1 noi33132 13vbA

noiw 3r1 i33!32 Iliw 21&rbivibni 2id iao3-ffI3n3d B no 33n3fl i2o3 IsnilErn i33fl51 on Iliw

o anu13T1o li3rfi oiEIuqinsm Iliw enEIq r1i1id briE ;i2oL i nibE31qa Aari 3LdEli23b ;2rIEIq fliIB3l1

.rh1d 3rli i311flE briE )13i2 3r11 ibb

a13vbE lo ui fli ivo kui 3mo33d n3fio 3v&{ frrloI3l ua rifised lo 2noi2ajj3aiU

jrrIoI3l Iib3M 1o tX3JnO3 r1i ni b3aiEl nd 3vErI noii33b 13vbs fljodE 2frI3anoD .no!33132

oniuni Irn.rbivibni lo ni3ffl 3rD briE riS2ri r1i1sd b3aEd-rn3rn'o1qm3 (Ii 2fI&13

¶11B3niqm3 2ffl33f103 inEhoqrni woi1 uH .(noi2eu32ib ioI QQ1 13DuD ) ai*nm

r1W u221 ionim i i l3bi2no3 io noii33132 13vbs iuodE b3rriow '1ii 3d w bluorl2

¶233iI3 21 3iE1ifrL f1LffI 251IJ2E3ffI

B lo 3iorf3 Irnibivibni no mlu3ihsq flu ni2u3oI ioqq airh ni 2ui r1i 2231bbE 3W

lo E3ibuia 32E3 no '1ivE3r1 wicib 3W .io1qm3 li3rIi d io unrn s moil nEIq 33fiE1U2fli di!E3f1

1o 3QnErIoqmi 3(11 o u 231dEn3 3rD noiiEfmoThi b3Iisi3b 3v&1 3w doiñw ioI 23iiino owf

.afl3aurIoE2aEM Io noi22irnrnoD 3onBlu2nI quoiO 3rli briE 'i213vinU blBvIEH :no1133!32 3213vbz

a13'o1qrn3 iaom 313(1w bhow B flu ui niwoi bits 1oi s 2i noii33132 3213vbs iD 3buIono3 3W

B iol i3)h13m r11 b3isnimul3 fl0ii33132 3wi3vbA .2313i1oq 33flE1U2fli 3ViiEffl3flE 3tqdLum iflo

B rliiw ms cr11 ob oi anE31r1i bits bmvisH noiiBins1O 13bq b313 W013f13

fl2inimib o 231U2E3 in32dB noiimmoD 33n51u2n1 quoiD 3rD oi1oq 'iinmobni 2JJO13fI3

.r101i30132 3213VbE

Page 4: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

r1i iobinoa nr1i W .noib1 I3vbE lo no!2JJ32ib E rliiw iqq 3di nid 3W

w 11ni .231qmfx3 owi iuo mofi 131th niIJ nonornonr1q 2iHilo 33frRiloqrni liohiqrn3

i1i 2n1q or rn3mr2irLb in3rnq bni 33nEiiJani3i '(lorEbffJ3m nibu13ni -- irE1ra auoib

.n01i33132 3213VbE lo aboilo ffr 3r1iiim or -- 2A fLir1 Ilolno

noibI i,vbA to iouIT nIT .1

lo rIoiiBIJri B nn3bianoo d noii33Io2 13vbE nk b3vlovni 23U2I 3f!r 3rE1rIJ11i 3W

or \1qqE 113w iaui bbo3 noiiui dr f1uorIi1B 2ns1q r1i1d b313i2inimbB-1o1qm3

1Ls3iqT .nwo iiodi no 33fLSiUII ni&1oiuq aliwbivibni 10 33fm1IJni b31o2noq-rn3rnm3vo

oi 13tE3 or bnB noirir3qmo3 3iomolq oi ns1q dt1r1 3lqirlum 1Eubivibni 1311o a13oLqm3

.13bivo1q li$3ib3rnlo ior1a bnE '13vi13b 31E3 IEoib3fnIo 23L'i2 ni 23iaBi Isubivibni

1i ni 'ii1idixofI 215wni wollE bru3 annflo onB1uani 3Iqirfum iuo r3 213'o1qm3 n3dW

oofb '1Lthrn31311ib 111w 1iwbivibni 1th dir1 r1r ii1idiaoq 3di 1 31di nE1q -ii3rIilo ni23b

Ithrn3l3Tlib n1W .noii33t3 IEitn3l3Thb 2233O1 aifli 13dB! 3W .1fl1onE aAth wol bris anslq rnoa

ns1q n33w13d nid3iiwa n3dw iaoo 1Eni1Bm b31srb Jon 515 alsubivibni 32u533d 235 no1133132

.anoirs3ilqmi '3n3i3fl13 asfi ii bns rno1133132 3a13VbE b31153 21 ii

lo alasci 3fli no arnuirriiq 132 21311J2flI .no1133132 1511fl31311!b ni 3101 5 's1q a3irtEq 331f1T

\sq a13'o1qm .a13'o1qm3 illiw anoiiszio3n 113f11 bns Iloln3 'di 3lqo3q if i lo 223ni)12fl 3rD

3aooflo a33'o1qm3 .aso1qm3 d noiiiIdhino3 3mo2 siiupi bns amuifn31q f1i lo noiiioq 3ffl02

01 '13)li1 StE '3f1J 3v3i13d oriw 3aorli — noiJEIu3Iso 1203\ffi3nod sb aiasd 3rD no nslq 3153 rIilE3fl s

ans1q 3rD 25 rbua 233n513IsIq 25 113w 25 \3i!oq 3vian3qx3 stom rD 'cud 51113 siorn b33n

Page 5: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

ai n1q di ir1ir1w io a1oi3ob rrn-no1 ndli ff133 \3fIi 1f1if1w afIOiiJ33O1 3if1qs1o

flOii31a b3ad-Ath 31O1 noit 1ifI13iflhJ2 £ 's1q a3fI315Iq If 31J II .abnorñ d b3bnrnmo331

.a3213513n1 3al3vbE if1St1oqffli aa1 moood 'dJ as ;noi13biano3 lonirn £ cf 11kw

a3o1qm bnB io1qrn aiwani 'd afIOii3E f 0 3nuflno3 fli wod aworla I iuiT

ot IqoqIo noiis3oIIE ris bIts a31sfIo 'o1qm amuiniiq nslq gnib1oi mouo ris a3oubolq

Iah i1qmo3ni ans1q 2O13B a'o1qm& lo fIo!is3oIIE JfIi3ifl3ni oi b1331 11133 22330lq aidT .anLq

w as a oIqrn lsIu3iiIsq o1flJ3 '11Ein5Iflib oi anslq io aviln33ni eivq bris nibsiqa

.worf a won

32Tovbs odi tE1iauh1i W .2i iK .toiwo\\K ios? ithK

£ 2fIB1q f1i1Ef1 owl ai1o 13\o1qm3 nA .1qmsxo 1E3iin1ioqd 3Iqmia £ illiw aa3aolq noiio1a

bus lan u1iuI -- alBubivibrn lo a3q'i owl muaas oalE W .nsIq isi3bom £ buns nslq 2UO13fl3

n1i mail ffi3n3d ui aniis iii1i buns ans1q uIi iobnu alsubivibni niisoii iol aiaoo dT .Aan wo!

:ois ns1q auoin

:3n5iiliU iilnH isivoIflo aiaoD 3311102351 aJ aIJol3nI3D iq 3iJsl3boM 331101011kG auoionoD olioboM

0 0à 04 alsubivibnl Aah-woJ

0 0 001 OV alsubivibnl Aah-n1iH

iol nslq auoiono 3f11 -iobmi ioisoi ai nibnoqa bus aAaki wol nsili ovianoqxo iom 515 aAaci rlgiH

1o aoqi in31T1ib odi affionod ui nis boiiaoq onli awonla nmuloo lasi oniT .oql Jan 11350

-nlgiil ifi bnnuaas aliT .mslq olsiobom 3d1 ol boaoqqo as auoiono 3111 mciii ovioooi alsubivibni

E

Page 6: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

.ii2o13n3 nslq b13ni moil ah-wo1 n&li oiom ffi3n3d a12h

uoi3rxg iom di iii od 01 3!qo3q Ath-dir1 iol i 3IqfnBx3 aifli fIt 3moOiIJo 1n3i31113 3dT

nEIq 2UO13fl 3rD ill 3d bluork Ath r!giH .rn3!q 3i13bom r1i ni 3d ol olqo3q jIth wol briB n6Iq

.(O) io3 1EnoiiibbI afi n&ti iEt 21 (Ofl) morli oi nBIq i&liIo 3ulEv IEinom3loni 3rD 32LJ1333d

.(O2>I) 31n1 21 oii2oqqo 3111 a1th wol ioI

.nEIq 3r!i ni b3LLom3 3flO'13V3 iol mmmiq om 3rD 3g113f13 21311J2111 iD 32IJ2 3W

3113 2miJim3lq IrnJp3 151U2fl1 3(11 oi 31dsr12iunii2ibni rs al13ubivibni 32u1333d 3d 'm 2irIT

1n3i31fl3 3f11 113 rIirIEr2 '.2Ath b1331q2 q1311 01 \3i1oq airli iqobs 2l3'o1qm3 io ws1 d b3liup3l

bnl3 rmlq 3Jsl3bom cdli iol O 5113 32 airli ni aiao 13V03 bluow isdi amuimsiq odi mui-idi1iupo

31q03q )!2fl-f1if1 3(1110 us 13V3W0f1 b3l3i1o 313W afftUIffl3lq 323(1111 .rislq 2IJO13fI3 3(11 io1 OOf

nslq 2uOI3fl3 310ff1 3flflo 1a1i-dirf ol 12o3 Isnoiiibbs 3(11 :ntflq Ian-wol r1i ol rloiiwe bluow

3isI3bom 3rD uI qu bniw 111w 3fl0\(13V3 audT .(O) 1113n3d lsnoiiibbs 3rD rltiow ion at (Oô)

affi3n3d nslq 31s-i3bom 01 2JJ013fI3 3rD mofi a3f13iiW2 oriw fIO213 S :3Iqmia 21 fl02531 3flT .rrnlq

ai-ioiaib aifli 23Xiffl 1th io1131 emuirnsiq 53fl12 bnl3 1ubivibrii )lerl-l3wol 1111w ui gnixim 'd

.rrslq 3isl3born 3111 abiswoi 23310r13

311211531 SlOffi £ fil f!01133132 3213VbE 3flIfflEX3 WOfI 3W cmo) icM K

.3isl3bom bus 2I1013fl3 aris1q 33f1131112fl1 fliIs3fl owl 213110 13'o1qm3 3(11 31013d aA .*row3msul

2U013ffl0 2231 10 gririsr1a 1203 13W01 a13biv01q10 3310113 131E31 13 13110 Effl fIBlq 2UO13fl3 3rIT

(N) 331v132-ldI-33l £ 3d irLim '3i1oq 2Uo13fl3 3rlT .nslq 3isl3bom di nsrfi 213q33A3i5g

taoo 3f11 133fl51 11tit ion 'sm 3r11 ab3-wani 220135 '(ISV ob emuirnolq 33n51u2n111 n3v1 .33n3n3qx3 01 '13Ai1 3113 \3f11 wonA alsubivibni isfli 233f1313111b

Page 7: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

irIim 3!Ioq 13bom li aiir!w joqqi noiisiniiO l3bivolq b-biq £10 '3iLoq iinmobni

10 e3iiarI3t3ElEf!3 3di Lsi w in3mom 3di ioT .[OMH] noiingiO 33nRn3iniEM Hi!H £ 3d

lo nothoq &1w :no!i33b ffihoqmi om 213'o!qm3 3di 110 IJ3o1 bnl$ b3xfl af 231311 oq owi di ¶33o1qmo 3d1 ol bogicdo 3d bluocla noihoq &1w briE q ri blirorla muirn3lq 3111

a13'o1qm3 'nim 23bE33b 331r1T .inEv3I5l 2i 3310f13 airli luods fIoia2u32ib 3mo

b3lsr13 1ln3up3ñ rrislq no nsdl oiom b31311o odw 3aorlT .nslq c1l1srf no taul b31311o

IslIw n33w13d asw 313111 33n313Thb l3v3lsrfw nisibiac1ua 4353 iol Inuoms 3m62 r11 233'o1qm3

ton 313W alnuorns ulliob 3rfT .13'o1qm3 3rD b3gisrl3 anslq rtl amhJirn3lq orb bns bisq 2o3\o1qm3

orb ol boxsl ton lud 13o1qm3 orb ol eldil3ubob ni3d b3sinsvbs xsi asw biadua orb bus lsor

.3o\o1qm3

ovsrl aolsi xsl lsrtoaioq 1sniism bris bO1515323 3VErl 21203 0153 ritIsorl rior11 33ni

'd bobnoqaoi ovsrl aio'o1qm .3V1135111E 2201 O3fLEliJ2fli f111J33r1 01 ibidu niAsm b3nit33b

oili iol a 1r13 ooo1qmo ba ol bHuoa oath 3VsuI ',or1T .o3nsluani rilisori ol aoibiadua ni3ubo1

nieoorb noriw eovibnooni obshqoiqqs 33111 aooo1qmo iiorfl otsm bluow Isril anslq lnoioThb

orb 10110 ol ai ooibosiq nornmoo A .1203 ni llsi1nsbadua ioThb won nso r1ir1w ans1q orb noms

13(110 .3111-I "nokbudi-ilno3 Isupo" boliso 02 Orb nO2Of13 213W nslq l3V3fI3ifIW 'biedua illilob omsa

Wofi at )1aE 3W IsrIl noilaoup oriT .21203 a'nslq 113s3 lo oslnoo1oq boxil £ osibidu aio'o1qmo

muirno1q 25 LocisI OW 32E3 Isnoibiaoqx3 io'I .a3fflO3bIJO 133115 iliw 23i3l51b2 ni3nq owl 023(11

io'o1qmo orfi lsilw "noiludnbnoo" 1nornu1oino iol 31sr13 anslq Isdi Inuorns oo'o1qrno -I3 3(11

01 oo'o1qmo ns aoliupol ioo1qmo orb IsrIl Inuorris ouli 3g1sr13 bris jnuimolq orit biswob asq

.rislq £ ni lloiiio 01 'sq

bobooqxo 2S osi1rrnori ow ibiriw a aaombia bobooqxo 113(11 WOIDI aoo'o1qmo 3fflU22E oW

a

Page 8: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

lioffi iovo (Oi1oq auoin iom r1 0111Ev 111w 3!qoOq io±i .cmlq uoiono oift th thbrioqa

2irlT .'i2oioao lEnoiJibbE i lo EJnEvbE 1oiEoi olsi 11kw or1i 031112 noidioid ioirfflod

. rliiw 2Oa1013(I1 V oiodw )V s boinoaoiqoi 21 0111Ev 1sino11ib

21 rIBIq woiono olom Ofli ni Iloino o oguirlo ooo1qmo oils isrli ooqqu

orlw oaoih ;niflq aijo-iono oiom odi ni !Ioino 11kw (1 < (2)V ov&f ofiw alBubivibni hA .lEiinoioThb

£ 2E nEIq oiElobom ocli nk inomlloino oonob oW .niflq oiElobom oils oooth 111w 0> (2)V OvEf! . aoob o oasoioni U A •(U)*2 rIOli3nhiI

1E1ono nI .noi2i3ob nii-iq 2'1oo1qm3 off bris amuimoiq ns!q lobi2no3 o boon won oW

ofli iovooioM .ono'ns iol nslq auoiono orit nsrli aaol oo o nslq oisioborn orli ooqxo bluow ow

oW .2nsIq orb noowiod 21203 031110251 flu IsilnoioTlib orb od 111w io1soi orli jsubivibni ofhi 10)1312

fiui bntl ioIIiM I > x oioflw 25 nslq olsiobom oil! iii bolloino nO2iOq £ id! 1203 orll otonob

= IsrIl 2nslq ooiv-102-ldI-o&! rlliw 2OMH nnsqrno ni olsmii2o o1qrnsxo idI QQI)

21qn32d112 or!! oioflw *a>2 ioI nsom M2 r{liw D2 25 2<2 1O Io lovol risom off! olonoG

nk 1ovii3oq2o1 bolloino noioq ioq nibnoq2 orb ois 21150ffi 320f!T .olsiobom bris 2UO10fl0 olonob

= q nor!! bEo1 OvilEli2inlrrthE on riliw 2oi3iloq ioTlo 2n51qH .2n5!q o!sioborn bns 2UO10flO orb

od 111w 2rIsIq off! noowlod oonoioiIib rnuirnolq ofiT •M2 = bris

= (I)

2201 orb ni 2nkVE2 1203 ooiuoaoi orb 2k 12111 oriT .210!3RI owl no 2bnoqob oonoioilib m11imolq oriT

0! '!o)1 oiorri sw olqooq ioAoia ;no1130102 oeiovbs 21 10!3E1 bn0302 oiIT .M2(I) jtslq 2uO1Ofl0

- e) nslq 2UO1OnO oiom orb ni bolloino od

Page 9: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

'o!qm ni 23n5tflib oini bEI2rurI d bn 2ffluimOlq ftBIq (Ii 33fI5IThb oth lo Ith ioM

iom di b i2o3 1&ioiiibbs di lo tli$ 10 moa non sq oLqm 'm 21oIqmH .2i203

s 'q ioIqmo di 2E3 noiiudhino3 Iup3 nI :232s3 owi 1bi2no3 W .3i1oq auo1no

rli nwid an13Thb rli 'q o!qm b bni3 n1q1o inbnq3bni biadu2 i1!ob b3xiI

£ 2' io1qm r!i aio bi2du Isnoii-ioqoiq Ht iii .nB!q 2i1L lol muimiq di bru$ bi2du2

o!qm rli bn Eoof13 'o1qm 3± n1q 13vdwbo iao3 rrniim3lq di1o noihoqolq b3xiI

bn 1iri ni3nq 2'1o1qm3 nwid 1q13tni 3rD b3xiI nith ns!q gnibloH .iai 3rIi eq .rIoi3313a 13vb.s lo 'hov 3rD 3nirrrloi3b Iliw noiJEIuqoq 3rD ni 2nAai2 10 noiiudhi2ib 3±

21 2a3rL)!3!2 .rI3EolqqE noiiudnino3 li$up noisui2 31dioq i 2wofl2

niia3fl31 niqoL2 blEwqu 21 3'rrn3 (a)V dT I o 0 moil 1rn-zouinu bucliIi2ib 3d o bomuaaE

IEUjOA!t boloctEf 3V1U3 oriT .232E313fIi 2 aB nEIq 21J010fl3 010ff! orliIo OU!EV boesol3ni orD

3± itoowiod a 223fDt3i210 noaioq £ 101 31E3 IE3ibOffllO 2203 flu o3nololulb orli aworfa "o3noloThb

or! outhv flu nisg orli 2fEUpo 1&jbivibni orli iol 1203 orb 5tofLW bovoidos ai 'onouofl11 .aniIq owl

A210 irign erli oi 8noiov0 1irfl aoiiupoi '3n3i3fl11 .A lnioq is nworla 213 nE1q orb mofi 23V18331

.nl3Iq ofl$lobom orli ni fbi orb ol onoiovo bn.s ru$Lq anOlonog orb ni od

riwo iiorf I Ion 130fl01 I liw o1qmo 'c1 bisq aoglI$f13 fiIrtoio11ib orb iovowoH

olqooq 101 anElq owl orb noowlod 21203 3E13V ni oorioiollib orb iorbsi md 2lao3 IElnomol3ni

"(rioiiudninoo lEupo) oglsrf3 oooiqm" bofodal oriu oriT moth rloaorf 3 Ilnoiiuo ovisri odw

orIl 313W 2 gnimu2aE a lo noilomIl £ aB 'isq bluow aoo'oIqmo isriw ni o3nololIib orb 2130flo1

bris fI&q 2LJ013fl3 0± 0200f!3 a ovods 223fl)1312 r!liw 320(11 2i isrfT .ooiorf o nisiq iol onif gnibivib

lisupo noviD (Q=x isrb omuaas ow) nEIq olsiobom orb oaoorla a wolod aaomloia oaorll

bogisrfo 3(11313(1W bovoirbis 21 to)hsm orli ni muiidilinpo io'ofqmo 3111 d anoiludrIfno3

V

Page 10: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

. inioq 11$ )V a1J311p3 33fl5131hb

uoion odi iii d Iliw 3Iqo3q 13w31 'fthffl -- in3131f13 mofi ui i muncliLiup3 LEUI3E 3rtT

noiiucfi-riaib {i bni (2)V1o noiiEnidrno3 mo io1 bbnI .nslq lEdi m 3d ol iduo nErD nEIq

."1siiq rfts3b noib313 3213vbE" ns borrn3i i ir1T .'13i3tqfflo3 3iiqm3 nEIq iioion 3rD a1o

iol gnithqiii 3d ym in3tom3ni i 311ff noiiudrIino3 16up3 3111 16111 13ä1 3111 11EiiinI

Ii o1qrnEx3 ioI .3vilEm3i16 220136 1116121103 3d bluorl2 23ibi2d112 IEIII 3v3i13d orlw ai21rnono33

-- 31w! noiflJdnino3 16up3 ff6 2131uqrno3 nOfflE 233i0f13 233'o1qffl3 gnivi 313W 213o1qm3

10 iO3 3rD 13v3woH .I6rniiqo 3d bliow -- uinEw uo' l3luqmo3 rfi A31q bi2du2 b3xil £ 2'313H"

Isup3 i1i ond ;2I3iuqrno3 io1 oirii Ion 21 311162 311T .11 23200113 ofIw no 2bn3q3b flEIq ff116311 £

6 23200113 3f1 Ii 1203 fli 33fl31311ib 3111 sq IEubivthni 3111 32UB33d 1n3i31fl3 21 31w! noiiudriinoa

31$r13 Ion 23ob ii 32u633d 21161 2n131q (1116311 ol rI3EolqqE noiiudi-iinoo IEup3 dT .l3Iuqmo3 13fl3d

2316rIo ii 13r1165I .2f161q gnirr6ff3 11311w 32oqmi 3r11 i1i eIaoo flu 33n313Thb 3111 2lsubivibni

bns 2nE1q ifl313flib 3111 3200f13 011W 3Iqo3q ioI 21203 3613VE flu 33fl3l3Tuib 3(11 2huubivibni

.1101133132 3213VbJ3 ol 3ub nl3Iq 01 nEIq moñ '1li33ii&riE1b '(1EV 1163 2ffouiEluqoq

3613V6 3(11 '1r1guoi 21 3g16113 31rIi2 i23d-bno332 IErrnlqo 3(11 2f161q 33nlruJ2nu 11116311 io1

Xeoo 3rIT .2n61q oWl 3(11 fl33W13d 3Dfl3l3iuibfli 01 32013 316 orlw 2IsJJbivibni 116 io1 33f1513Thb

io1 2i26d 3JEnqolqqs 3(11 21 jEubivibili -w 3111 ion 1Eubivibrn \1 3(11 iol 33n313Thb

.2nsIq gnome 3b133b 01 3v611 \1tn3TIu3 orlw 320111 gnioriq

b 3s1n3313q Insianoo £ \E 01 21 23ib12du2 13'o1qm3 iol rl3Eolqqs 3Vu161r13116 nomrno A

rn131thb 3rIT .2131110 nsdI bi2dJJa lEllob 131E31 £ 13 2nEIq 311102 16111 nP(1qmu fflU1ffl31 3111

isl IsrIt 31014 •08d Iiu 21 muhdiliup3 3rIT .bi2du2 1n3313q 08 nE 1111w nElq lEnoirloqolq £ 2wode

IEup3 3(11 fhiw 116111 'bi2du2 hinoihoqoiq r11 rhiw 211BIq 3iwI3bom 3111 3200(13 2IEubivibni 13W31

8

Page 11: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

1o1qm3 3di ad bidu Isnothoqoiq 3d bud 13oIqm3 b3xil i niittiW .!ui noiudhno3

iii .n3flo 3iOffl fl320f!3 ii 33f13H .nEIq uoino od io1 I ooIqm3 3di bni iom 'sq

s in3mq niIq niiuLb Aii oi d3Eoiqqi i33libfIl nE 3bivrnq ibiadu2 11$noitoqo-iq i33iI3

.wol3d oi niuii 3w 3iqO

WOfi 3W .noii33L3 3a13vbI moil gniwofl 23iiIu3fflib oidi b3noiinorn w iuo d .owi iorlio di 3dn323b 'R3i1d

)Ith 2231 2i 31311t E11i 2i f10ii33132 3213vbE moil 2201 bno332 3fIT %5V\o o.X

niq qu bniw 3lqo3q )1312 rnthidiliupo noiboloe 3al3vbE di nI .lEmiiqo 2i nEfli gnib31qa

iom 3db 3200d13 '3rD 32uE33d 3Iqo3q 'dr1ir1 n&li oniriu2ni th1sr1 iol iom '11Eiini2du2

iii 3Iqo3q b3AaE 3w11 .3Lqo3q A312 -idbo diw ni b3xim -i r1i 32uE33d bnfi nfitq 3vi2n3qx3

bluow 2ufft bnE i203 f1if1 3d Iliw 3fb i1i ?kii 3d Jniis 31U2fl! oi iimw bluow (3f!i 33n1vbE

313db Ii 1!ii2 3lom 31u2f11 oJ mEw bluow 'r1i bnA .'oi!oq ovi2noqx3 310111 bru 2UO13fl3 3flm 13131q

m2niEgs 3311EW2111 3aEfIolIJq ol w on ai 313111 13Y .1101133132 3213vbE ol 311b 21203 1inoiJibbE 313W

.o1 3n3i3fl13 lIE 2olE13rI3 131*113m iio 33no2dE orb ;ogiovo rfiff nimnEwlo noilibnoo oiii

341 33'o1qmo ouim gniisrfo (1) :2fudq owl iol 23rI3EolqqE grnoriq isloq ooidi l3bi2fIoD

212o3 b3mooqx3 iioill nil oniT1ib IEIJI3E odI 233'o1qmo gfIi1J$f13 () ;nislq f13E3 idi ifIUOfflI$ 3fflE2

3111 begiEri 3 31E 233o1qm3 m1m o 2rIELq 2213E 2noiilldnlnoo Isupo gnblsrn (F) bnE ;2nElq 22013E

1311112 bluow ii lud 11uI aA2il bEo1q2 bluow doEolqqE i2iiI 31ff .amuimolq nflIq 111 3anoloThb Ilul

E11X3 011 113 3ldEIiEvE ai ii 32u1333d nEIq 2UO13fl3 odI Aoiq bluow 2bolu2ni I Is — bijis.&f lElom

-A2i1 £ 3d 11112 bluow 313111 mud fl0ii33132 3213vbE olsrHfrHIo bluow rlosoiqqs bno3o2 3fLT .ogir1o

biult oniT .331151112111 Isoib3m ioI 'r1i1s3r1 3111 nrnrli 310ffl bntoq2 bluow )!312 3111 -- 22o1 nibB31q2

Page 12: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

13vbE 01 iib a33r15Iflib ioo :bno3 cit n&Ii 2322o1 nibE31qa-1ah iom 3vs11 bluow fl3fiolqqE

.233n313Thb 1203 IEIJI3E 01 no b3bbE 3d bluow 1101133132

33nq £ 13131q bluow 'di noi1ibno3 113111 niwom1 31o13d 131r11n03 bfuo3 2b81u2n1 M

2201 nib31q2 !eh b3as313th 3111 31dw 3d3J$o1qq bno332 briE iifl rii n33w13d ni'1 33n313111b

blEs.Erl Isiom molt 2ooL 111 noiiaub3l 3111 d bo3rlslsd IuL ai 233n31311ib isi b3as3I3ni molt

13 i3oI 132013 b3oriq 3d bluow 233i1oq or1T .b33hq '(IinoloflIueni 21 311oq 2U13113 3111 usod 3lirI noiiudhlno3 lsup3 3111 nsrli 113o1 132013 bns 1nuiomis iijil 1LEhsifl3E 113111 usd1

.33ubolq bluow

molt 23Vf13b noiboI32 3213vb5 molt '3n3i3ifl3ni bliflI 311T .o cuwM i-X

11iII ion 'sm bisq 515 2131fl2fl1 isdi 2muim3lq 3fIT .213111211! 'd 2fIfl3TIo nslqlo aoiisluqinsrn

ob 213o1qm3 32u533d 10 o3nsvbs flu 1 sis 2m1Jimiq 32u533d 's xim noiisluqoq iidi Jfl31

d3u2 nI .muim3lq 3111 l3vo nslq £ 1111w niaisisd oloI3d 23311o1n3 1o xim 3111 220225 '11th Ion

olqooq )13i2 10 w3Iq £ 101113 olqooq lOiflilsOff Ii IIOVO OfflS2 3111 \5i2 111w muimoiq 2o3rIs12mu3113

.11 ovsol

Ioqsi bus 2b5rueni r1i1sor1 1351115 01 2OViifIOOfIi OVEn Iliw aioiuni 2O3fIBi2f1I1J31i3 113112 nil

1a03-f1!f1 10 )13i2 01 inomlloiiio gni'nob '1oioM .n0i133132 )12r1 b31153 2233O1 £ 2b5Iu2n1i )1312

noiissiliiU .boboon OlE 2bonllom OlidIJ2 sIOm ;aio'o1qmo 'd bolid!ffolq '1Lsu2u 21 olqooq

OlE -- 21fl3ffl\EqO3 r1in1 10 21i21V qu-wolIol 10 215T13131 icfi 232233O1 211013110 -- ifi3moEfl5m

rIlisod ft 2qinI2lodmem idi 2if111032iU .213211 'ti2fI3irH-d!f1 3E1uO32ib 1oisnothoqoiqeib ol sw .20110 flOiW 3111 msioiq 'o1o3no nibn.si2iuo ifs o1qooq tf1n onIl losilis if1im 2(11113

21i32iJf13S2aSM onIT .iouIo 01 nwonA ois od1 Isdw luods 3v1112n32 od oals Iliw anslc

of

Page 13: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

di lo .QQ I cii bui Isnriolni n b3bubno3 (wobcf buoib) noiimmo) n81unI quoi€)

oi 23I1o1n oi bmiEI3 fIo,13H .ao1!oiin 113f11 bi11o 'c1i 2OMH 01 b 3ivT dhhid !iinm

&wlq 8 vwoc1 OEI cii orft 'cJ biibnirn osiovo ffflE3fI !iinrn rnuminim r1i ifio

i1 2irli iJ-1ovbE on bib 3cfT .a& 1B3!n3 iol tind woin iom bi11o \(!IEuioE

i2niEB b3132 niod biovE o bnEw 'cL 3wE33d

ivoo bni A3i diod ni'n3b o! in3ihni aoqmi m noiiEIuqrnEfn iq rn nEIq on 13flE3 id di iol lol E 'q bluow 1qoq duodli nvH .oAiI iom bluow r!i

ii bivoiq

iii1na owT lo IsT A .11

1o onhqx3 3111 no 211361 ow noil3o1o2 o2lovbE lo oonthoqfni IEoniqrno orb onimtxo oT

orb bns iiaiovinU b1Ev1EH :2fI1q 3311111112fl! rillEorl lovo ooiorb IEubivibni wollE 1irb 2oiiiino owl

IEooI bn olci to1 quoi nia&ioiuq orb) 21 2ur1oEM1o (IMD) noiimrnoI) oonfciu2nI quoiD

£ boiollo iLtod : ooqoi 'nrn cii lEIimi2 ou quoi owl odT .(aflourfossM cii 2oo'o1qm3

diod (DID odi bnE biiv113H rilod ovio r1idw1o nEm) 2OMH Isiovoa bits nslq 2uolonog Iloo

riood ovsrl ibod bits ;ooninu2ni ii1up.did gnibivoiq ol inornuimmoo rrriol-noI S ovsrl

.omii iovo 212o3 33fII31IJ2fII rilisod iioi1i gniouboi 'd 'onom 3V52 ol nulqrnoils

inoi&11ib 1ds*tsmoi 21 aoiiilno owl oodt1o 33nOI1OqXO lnoooi orb oo 1Isd ow ar iuH

anslq dIlsorl inoioThb osibiadua ol noaodo ovsrl odi wodlo o2usood Insmnq

.VQQI 'sM jiOiisoinUfflffloo IEno2loq efllVEL2 23115f1J

is

Page 14: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

(%wtu'3 wrM 3mil-J-iq bilE -liii OOOOI iijods 01 03n1$11J2r11 dithii 2111o 'y1i21vinU fruviiH

Oqq 2U13fl s :anElq cftLE3dIo q'l owl bi3T1o biiwiEH Q1 ni ninnigH t.o1qm 1ii u1i 2wor!2 E iuiI .2OMH 1s13v bilE floauff3EaaEM1o b1oir1 u1H\oiD 3ulH 'd

iqq 3r11 tuodguoirIT) .OMH S13v1 di bris cq r1i ni oiLoq '1imsI 6 ioI 2muimiq (Q1) (oi1oq '1imiTI s iol 3iB ai&fo bilE 2muimiq bim 2mllob (àQI) 1ii ni lnuomE isilob 116

1o 33n2dB di ni u63d OMH di n&1i iom OO iuodE 1203 Qqq iüi 21i ii

owl ixn dl 13v0 .rlgid iv i aiw hq Isiiini 3rD xim ln3rnlloin3 rli luodE noilsrrrioThi

.l3ifto d3s 1o 2lEIIob b3lbnurl B nidliw ol bgr3vno3 2muim3iq OMH bns qq 3rD 2•I63

3rD ol 1203 lEnoilibbE cr11 is1imi2 o 313W eriR!q 1n3i3i1ib 3rD io1 2muim3lq 3rD 3211633H

233'o1qm3 4QI bilE QQ1 rlwl3d wor12 4 iuiI aA .wol '11I313n3 w qq 3ffilo 33o1qm3

o216 3miT orIT .OMH nElo bEoi2ni ON orli ni ILoin3 ol OO 01 OO4 1110dB 10 3E13VE fiB biEq

.o1qm3 bisvlEHlo 1n3313q O luodE 16 31d6i2 26W qq fi flu irI3mlIOm3 i&11 2worl2

21i13nd diIs3rl'IO 1203 grii2ri 3rlT .i!3fl3b l3b1Jd £ b3361 'ii213vinU 3rli 2OQQ 1-bum 3rD nI

32flO231 b3no1q-owi £ Aoorl3bnu blEvisH .ii3fl3b 3d1 ill thq!u3 lnEiioqmi ff13 26 b3fliin3bi 213W

.33n3n3qx3 bisvisH 3r11 no 111313b iom iol (ÔQQI) 13d351 bru$ ioliuD

3200r13 3W .2rnlJurn5lq listibivibni bilE '1imE1 lo 3E13VS b31r1i3w 6 3211 232'1EfI6 3mo2 .13*mm 3rD ru bnuol 1ibommoo lEIIJ3zhlsq s no '131 01 bs3l2ni

is bmvisH 16 231sr13 33'o1qmJ .2in3rn'Eq 323rD lo 2111612 xsi 3rD lo 2311221 5I0fli 3W e

lto-1n3 01 qu n3Vi noiiqmu2no3lo 2rrrioi lii noii1Jdn1no3 xEi-13fi6 3rD 02 2i2Ed XEI-31q B no 3bBm .131113m2 21 qq 3f11 m

Page 15: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

.ni!q 3flflo f!3s iol hri noiudnino3 Lsup ns binm1qmi ii iaiiI .qU-fUrl io3 r1ttsc1 3r!i or

.ÔQQ1 iii b3niojulsd idio rIi ;?.QQI lii oIqm rli1o11&f ruodfi ifiiw nid inrn3nBTIE 1f1T

biir1BH bnooo .3o!qm 3fli 'd biEq won ai nB!q vi2nqx iom lo raoo thnoiribbi 3ñT

-thup3 wn au r&!i b aaiia blBvlsH .al3luani ffthor1 ark diiw anoiuthion auoun5lua ni

bfu$ ais iwo! duiw ani!q abiwor aniwa infnh1oin 1BI 3ubo1q bluow 'ai1oq noiiudi-rnoo

.amIIim5tq li3di 3ubi oi aiiuani ati baaiq

r1i nI .aiuam e3fli oi anoqai ni I ni 'I!iinEi2dua !!&1 aOMH io1 ammi qq 1idw 51ukT ni nwoda as airnu Isi ni 0O0I oi aoL3 d 1I1 amuim5q OMH

ni 32EI3fl! 3ldsuon s olni aidi bus1antrii ainmqoLvb isi 323dT JnBiano3 bnismoi afnuim1q

qq di1o ic dr i nI .. ni nworla Oqq fli lii 11oin 01 agisr1o 'oLqrn Ofil

.000, I '1rfuoi 01 0O luods aoi

.inm1Ioin O'N ni noi13ub1 s asw oasioni nq airli ol anoqai Isilini di bbqx aA

1n3flin!a S un3ioq I ol in31q 0 moü I!1 I ni 1n3rnh1oin qq awoifa I iuiI aA

.1B 15(11 rist1o r1i 'd b31oi1s w a'oIqfn rii 1o lisri 'Ino isrfi fl3Vi anoqai

oilw oaorll usd1 inuo bus iirti1si1 iw di moll blloinaib oriw o1qm r1T

ON 1Tf1 d11s3d di 1o iuJisqb di lo 11uai aA .(aiss I lo s nsrn s) b3's1a

.ôQI ni amuim3lq aisi ol bsd bus (I ni 'nom laoI

to l3bnismol di idi oi1oq ni 3gnsdo 3111 rlliw b3nidmo3 ÔQQI cu amnuim3lq ni 3th 3dT

9nirrism5r di ioI a3glsd3 o1qm3 ni asoioni Isilnsladua s ni b311u23-I a'oIqm3 b-isv-isH 3r11

OOU iuods asw rtoidw qq odi idi noiludilino3 b3iiup3l 3(11 woda I uiT aA .a11om3 cq

.a'o1qrn3 binoinu us idi nsr1o 3isib3mrni us b3iidiflo-lq alosilnOo noinU

El

Page 16: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

b3i3rnrnIJ!q qq th inmI!or nithqiii ioM .óQI m OOO2 n&Ii iom oi oi 4QQI iii

2or1i fIf1i imjo' nis 31w th fl31 oriw ooHT .3'o1qm3 LBioi b naiq Q iuocfE oi

b!irL2 u!H\aaoiD uIH 'd ithnA aw on13T1ib 1i ;b3niEm1 oilw

sivs rIi rt&!i iidiId in31q O iw is &Li 'iloq 3cIi 1101 orlw oodi fi boworf2

.fliEE 33110 'onom 1thndu2 o1 qq oiIi 1uoi £ 2A .floI oli oiobod ino ofli ni oo'o1qmo

bns rrwimolq qq th sr1i uoI3 aw ii boiioq noi ioon oii VQQ! odYbo niriniod or1 v8

iftod 31dEnonu asw 2ifIT .novo boid o fIBIq OfIi idb '11E3itSff11b 025I3fIi ot ovsd bluow oi&1a

fIth3od 2'blBvlsH .bobnBdib w qq odi bilE bloid ou1ffoiD ouIH bilE iiaiovinU oIl ol

-Isiipo fIB 01 fIW0ffl 10 1B3' E niihiw qq boisluqoq '1ivor1 ii io1 rnoi 3oniuani

.'1ftiw2 boi2iwi 1E1iq2 disob 1101133132 o13vbE oriT .Jnom mrnis noiludirtno3

(Xy i& co'D Y aoviI Iioi OOO& bilE 233'oIqfn3 OOOI Ir1guoi 01 3311B11J2111 2obivolq DID oriT

n&1i iom1 omui nim bilE bnElgna woM nil 2132&13wq O3flElU2fli i231E1 onli lo 0110 ii 8nAEffl

bru3 uoiono 5Iom 1rioi1ibiii B boioibo b1EviBH olil DID oIl nBocf 2OQQ I oIl 2A .blE'nl3H

.aOMH lo 1osq £ bns 3i1oq 'iinmobni 'li2o3

bwnnB odT .2nidq oonuini orb d DID odi ol bogi&Io amuimolq 2worl2 oiugiI

odT .muimoiq '2OMH odi riBnit ion1id OO2 '1d8uo1 aw '3i1oq 'iinrnobni orb io1 rnhiirnolq

onli briE ri bolloino \3n1i 3i1oq 3111 iol 1203 oriflo inooloq 01 biEq 2oo\o1qmo tEnD sw olin DID

Vjfl33.3q 1 ol b3o13nIi asw olEnl2 oo'o1qmo out QI iii ;tno3loq OQ ninimoi orb biEq oist

i2om t&1i iobn oLfIqoli2EtEO B io1 '3i1oq 'tinimobni 3111 idI no-bbB lIEm2 £ 2JSW oionlT n1uoidi inooioq I iuodii aw nfilq 'iinmobni orb id! o1sd3 ooo1qmo onli ur1T .Aoot eoo\olqmo

If

Page 17: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

b1!oin 21oIaioI i2om iJ3di bvoi!d ai II) .iuiaIai1 r1i scI ia oi awk 3'oIqm3 3a3dT

o3-cIid 1i sibi&1u livsd ibi2du IBnoihoqolq r13u (.'3i1oq 'inm3bni uoiri di lii

n n.rrft iom OOô uods 1no 2'o!qm3 iao3 'ai!oq iinmbth 3rii wok ô wiI A .i3iIoq

0F iuod E .QQI o OQQI moiI ifIi2f1o3 '1oviisI31 asw 3z1oq 'iirirnbni di ni iriom!foin3 .OMH

.(V wiI a) tn31q

qq E oini OMH b13ir! u1H\22o1D u1a b icknun E biEbi!oano3 DID QQ I iii

nimi13 ol 1iisq aiw gnBfI3 ntIq di bnifId sbi dT .bI3ifI uIH\aoiD ouIH d bi11o oth

o IIoin OMH 'rhIsr1 'viiE15I S1UO3fl oi 1rIEq bni OM1H nirrriohq '11&tiwm omo

qq {j ;bbxu 1u! holTb thIT .rmlq iinrnbni bni qq biE1-on3hqx rh oini VOf11

IIEu13f oiIoq inrnbni 3di ni inom11oin bni 2OMH 31i moil 3IqooqIo icfmun i3 wib

1b1 muirn1q OPT rli QQ I ni Ii IdB1ovI iiffluj w qq 3± m xim 1th ifT .ba13ni

.OMH 3dibo 13v3! 3di 'kIzjoi o OQQ I oi1i lo 31IJO3 di ivo iu8 .un3m nclq 3IdE iiiip s ifio o iqq 2udi DID 3dT

nioI nod !wo12 af3fL \oiloq ' nm3bni 311T .3Ui woiia r nd 2sf! n0ib3132 3213vb5

.VQQI yc1 211o1n3 !1so fl3313 V oi niqqoib jioiisluqoq

1o aiao3 3f1 3Iidw u$ 3331 flu ni!!s1 io isfl n33d 3vsd 2OMH 3di io1 amIJim3lq 1s5I

QI noowiod OO4 bonilDob 2rriuimolq OMH 113351 .oth ol bounulno3 ovsrl ai1oq 'inrnobni orLl

ni noxl3ubol oriT .( oiuiI 302) OO iovo oaoi 'oi1oq iinmobni odi ni amuimoiq Lsoi VI bns

boasol3ni Ion ovsd amuirnoiq OMH :DID o± ol oupinu Ion 2i fliwo1 muimolq OMH

.(ÔQQ I iodo51 bns -iolluD) 21B0' woI Iasq ofli ioI £0113 nolao8 ofli ni '11srInsl2du2

QQ I iofts ino3loq O luods bnt3 I!Q I

ai

Page 18: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

Lthffi3ioq 13bino3 oi bn DID 3di Hi noii31a ivb lo 33nEhoqmi di 3nimx oT

33fI1IJ2fli f1flif H B no £iBb bo!isib bnisido w m31do1q noi33!3a 1vbE fli oi anoiiu!o

bas QQI QQI alI3OY IE3iI fIi2f3qfflo3n3 boiioq r1inom-O odi ivo o31!om DID1o miB!3

:izL iiup ei ffl!EI31O idmun rli !qoq OOO riliW .ÔQQI mY 1s3iI lo lisd iaiiI 3rD

.ab1o3I in3iiEqiuo noii!im I iomiE bnB noi22irnbE a1Riiqod OOOô hsn i ti a b3w3A 'livE3ri i Iooq DID 3d1 ni nibn3q iE3ib3rnIo noiiirdniib 3dT

aisilob 1ioi 3riIlo abiidi-owi iol IfIIJO33E 1E3' B Hj 3Lqo3qIo 1n3313q 01 iqqu 3riT .'1IEnoiiEn

oa) aiBilob IEoib3m lo 1n3313q 0 iion iol IHUO33B al3bn3qa lo 1n3313q I qoi di bobni ;ln3qa

brn3 AiH) aLqrrua IEnoii&I Hi nibnoqa1o noiiudniaib 3rD 01 32013 'i3V ai aidT .(I 3IdET

.(QQI ii3rInoM

lo i&ia rLi awoda 31IET 3dT., .no1133132 3al3vbE no 33n3biv3 moa aworla &dsT

a311oin3 li3fDlo 1n3313q V bsd aOMB 3rIT 'd IQQI ni nsiqlo 3qi fi3E3 ni a1Ioin3 . vod in3313q oa bsri nLq 'iinm3bni dli aioriw in3o13q b&1 qq 3rD bnE 3B 3vodE

lo anoiisoiiqmi ili nuo rii ioTl n&1i blo 3rD iol i3i11 '11thiniiadua 21 nibnqa IE3ib3rn 33rIi

51E aiaoa no aiEiin3l3IIib XiffI 323f1i

siEb gniaU .noib3ba 3ir1qs1orn3b iol aoiuasm imrnua 3bivoiq awoi owl laid 3riT

briE 'd gnibn3qa EiVE b3iuqrno3 w vrn 3luiibn3qxH IEQib3M IEnoiisM V8Q I 3rD mon

a'rmfq orli niau nsiq rfoi iii gnibri3qa b3i33o1q lo b3irii3w B rrnol n3rD 3W .xa

bm lo aa31b1E31 o3iioin3 r13 iol inuom 3m62 r1l arisiq a3aludmi3l DID 3rLT

'd f1oii33132 IEiin3l3llib 33n3H .nsiq 3111 ill Iioln3 ol 21nEW odw 3flo'flE iq333E 01 anEIq 231iup51 .noi133132 3213vbE lo rmol irithoqfni ns al 3E - -i 1- -I i> :aquo1 Q olni noiiEluqoq 3rD bbivib 3W

.+ô brui

Page 19: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

oi bi3ib31q od bhiow 11oin3 OMH 3i3E 3rlT .ardiow i&k in3m!Ioln3 3idqs1om3b

1f13313q 8 io 1 i 3i1oq iinmthni 3r!i 111 thbn3qa b3bib3lq ias1ino3 ni I bn3q2

f1l rn3di i4giri 1n3313q O4 iuoch i oiLoq iirIfnthni 3f11 flu miiim3lq 3f!l l1i 1Is3351 .13rfirf

lo 2blirfi-owi ivo io OM8 2niELqx3 3I1om3 lo xim oidqE1om3b orli ;2OMH f1i ni muimiq

.33n31thb isrIi

ob oriw nvi s 1o 3Lqo3q LqmBx3 io1 .'1oi2 3rIi 10 ft3q B '1no I1i s 'd (101133132

2E313r1w nB1q iinm3bni 3ffi lo iuo iqo 01 1Ai1 m 33 lE3ib3m 1thiruldu2 bn 01 ia3qx3 ion

no 2u3o1 w uirl f1i1d d noii331 lo 33llBtloqmi 3(11 nimx oT .ni iqo 11kw ob odw oor1i

3Th rIloEl .aloBJiE rur1 bni 3fIEfl31 :noiisbqoq 1)-13bnu 3rli ioTI 2noilkbnoo inthoqmi owl

1m3rI 3B13VB 21203 )13Sth3 tn33d bnB 3B13VB no amliob bnseuodi 1s13v32 1203 aHhkd ;3v12n3qx3

.ooo nI .aAOBflE im3rl bnas '3nErI31q iol a1i 3onobioni b312u1bs-x32 bnB -i 2wofk 1diT

iol nmow b1o-1s3' $-I) qiioig ogi 1Jo'-3vi1 'd nslq i1av nk li 3rD bniI w f13E3

3E1OVE b3ic1kow B rrnol norli bnB (2A3EflE im3rl iol nmow bns nm b1o-m3' 4ô-?i 3f1Efl31

2n131q iinm3bni iii idir1 3m oiii nlflB imr1 bnE 3flEfl31 r11o8 °'.nEIqlo 3ql d3E3 iol

\1Th31 3 233fl31311ib 3f1T .2011(11(11 nErD qq 3± flu 13ff i1 3Th nllod briE qq 3(11(11 niEffi

iom 1n33-13q OE 3vErl nislq 'lifrrn3bni 3± (1k 2lEubivibni X32 briE 3E iol fIii2iJ1bB l3flE :3gIEI

.2OMH 3(11 fit 320(11 nsnli 2)I3EflB rlE3rl 3lom 1n3313q O( bn 23i3nBng3lq

briE 4QQ1 inI3m11oln3 lo 2Th3' owl 12111 3(11 flk 2IBLJbiVibfli no noilEnriolni 2ffiiE13 3211 3W

22013E aflOiii2fIEll JIB13VO .3m11 13V0 nu11s1 10 fl12S5I3fl1 21 1101133132 l3fli3fiW 3llifflEX3 01 QQ I

.quo X32 bilE 3E lEfli flu DID 3(11 fIt fioiiEfuqoq 3111113 3(1110 3113(12 3± 3 2lf1k3w 3rlT°'

vi

Page 20: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

OMH ni o nI!q '(iinrnbni di moll vom 3!qoq1o noioq hrodA .IIErna '1viiE!31 2nBIq

mof 3iod3 nz!q lo 2nD!3il dT .noi31ib 13V31 3111 ni vorn in3313q I iuod bru ri31

3rD 31JJ03lO .(8QI) 132USthf33 bni qqi3M nl 33n3biv3 sf11 rhiw n3aino3 i is oJ i 2ii oI oi 313w nt1q iin1n3bni 3rD Ii biviH a 3iE1oI33oE icIim a13r13iiw lo noiiioqolq

.1Isiniadu2 qmIft bluow rmlq iinrn3bni r1J iol 3mrI3 3rIi iiirll o bi&1ua 33X3

5r1i i3fi13 bns 31o13d aLsubivibni 10 nibn3q2 lEolborn oili no noi&ino1ni aworla 4 o!dT

noitudhiib nibn3q2 3rD lo 3!iliiwp li3di d 13r!3flW2 lo 31BrL 3111 wor1 3W .nsIq rioliwa

aru!q nwd rnom3vomhI .(QI) brIoiiwa 'r1i l3flE nis bni (4QQI) bdoiiwa rh 3loIod

3IdBT rh1o nmuloo aii1 oriT .nooiq d bluow IIoo iloi ni gin3o13q 3111 mobnE1 313w

3rD ni 313w OMH ns ot ru3Iq iirIrrI3brii ifI mofi b3vom oriw 3Iqo3q di1o in3ol3q U 113(11 aworl2

ithuol bris biidi oi1I 4asrnoa H .QQ 1 iii nslq Iinm3bni r1i ni al3bn3qa 10 3IitISup ia3woI

3Iqo3q 11$3\ In3up3adua h nI .el3vom gnoms b31n3231q31-I3bnu 313W nibn3q2 lo a3lthEup

.n6ibom wol3d ni3d inooioq E (111w jsnrion rii3rfi 2a31 1Mgi1a irI3qa OMH ns ol b3vom orfw

iii 1n3313q iuods 3113 isria r1i oi1oq 'iinm3bni di oi aOMH mon aiovom nomA

(11113311 ol 3vian3qxo 11611J3ihEq 516 orlw aoilI Ion 5113 aOMH 3rD nivso1 oaorli aurfT .1133 ff353

.nifloa iinm3bni as iii io OMH ff1313(1113

Is Isflw3moa noiio1 3al3vbs lo ioIa gniugiiini ns 1131 Iri3rn3vorn 1o arrI3iisq 32311T

15 33f13ri3qX3 DID 1(13331 nI .2311(1011033 nirfliw InIJ033s Isnoijibsil 3111 rfliw 3onsimv

3(11 ;anslq Iaoo-r1ir1 auoioa lo Iuo qoib 3Iqo3q 4aii-wol 32u633d aiuaoo noiio3f3a 3213vb5

bn3 i1ir1 orli no bows?12 315 alaoo 3fli .iolosl InsoiIinia s Ion ai 3Iqo3q Aai-i-i1ir11o Iii noi133132

.'lA3iup 2231 2120310 xirn 3(111331113 a3irn13n"b rlona wo1 orli Ion

b3ion n33d asrl 1101133132 3213 vbs 01133 1d112 \1gni2E313fIi 5113 anslq DID 3rD 16111 32(132 311T

8f

Page 21: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

oi q3i Iiva n3IBt aBf! DID ii is IE1va iq r1i ivO DID

oi !qqB nivse ibud Edi 51118 obm a&1 Ii iaiiI .31Ioq 'iinmbth 3rIilo '1iIidEiv 3fIi ri&In

Q? 1 iii 'nom vi at bthn iia 3fIi n3flw 1qrru$x ioI .L1Eup IfIuo 2f1S1q us

lo 'ii2oin viis1oi di nivs1 ns!q 'imm3bnk li bns aOMH ifiod ioI bes313ni asw nIJ3rI2

nslq 'iinrnbni ili iiIijoiIi 21noiimrnoo mo ifuoc1i nv bnsiI3nu 'IrIauoi 2nElq ili

131om bijboi n3d 3v5d bliod

3(11 gnigsrlsm ni b3vlovni i3vii3s no3cl asil DID o(1i 13v3wor1 insrioqmi iaom aqsth

lo iuo oviso s bio1qmoo DID f1i 31qrnsx3 iol SQQ1 nI .21203 au 33ub51 oi nslq 'iinrnobni

asw ii itoriw qq di at b3bn3ix3 Iinupadua ns1q iinm3bni i1i ni 113n3d \3srrr1Er1q

s r!iiw aiasd l3blo-Iism s no b3bivolq won 315 aifin3d a&rn61fq iaoM .4QQ1 iii b3dei1dsia

no 'nom ovsa at DID odi awolls ni2sr13rnq A1iH .iasi odi nibivoiq qq '3srm&1q

oauds o3nsladua bits rilisorl Isinorn iuo bov-iso DID otfi IQ1 ni hs1imi .airib noiiqnoaolq

Isinom aboon anslq oaorlflo iodiio ni noaloq s noriW .anslq qq bits lirirnobni odi mail alilonod

aA .anoiiibno3 oaorll ni aosiIsi3oqa isdi nsqmo £ 'd bogsnsm 015 233iV132 oaorll aooivioe rilisorl

noillim O1 at noillim moil noIIäI ovi3d aoiuuibnoqxo ililsoif Isinom iuo ov•is odiIo iluaoi £

'1idii siom aillonod inoiisqiuo aosnsm oafs rislq 'iinrnobnk orLT .(arniou Isnirnon ni) 1so' ioq

iiodi bits boililnobi won ois aioeu inoilsqiijo i2o3-r1iH .aoob '3i!oq linrnobni Isnoilibsil s rmrfi

its 1111w i3sinoo oviauloxo its asil rtslq 'iinrnobni odi bitA .aaonoisnqoiqqs iol bowoivoi 2i 5153

quoiD) anslq ÔQQ I eli 10 aia1sns oulsv ovilsloi £ borioieaimrrlo3 DID orIi boobnI " asw enslq auoiono iesol bns iaom odi noowiod oonsroThb ouT .(Q1 noiaaimmoD onsiuenI odi ovods ino3loq OQ asw isdi muimolq s bsul nslq 'iinmobni ouli i2s1ino3 'H .ino3loq F. I Ian i

oulsv ovilsisi odT .rtslq ovianoqxo ieorn bnoooa odi ovods ino51oq O4 bits nslq 120q50d3 ci nsfq £ \C1euo1oiv won iniiooos otni oIsi ion aoob bits aliIonod nslq Is '1oIoa 2)1001 noiisluolso

.aoulsv oviisloi eOMH odi bono)1sow ovsd bluow Ii oa onob Ii bsH .bosnsm

@1:

Page 22: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

33nq 2f1fld gnisr!31uq )ilUd fliB ;33iv13 3fI1ffi3-flOff io1 3iV13a (IOtJ31OdS! II3it13qiIJo

nt1q iinrnbni cli oivi 'Iois1odEI no noihliii2du2lo a1ov3I r1i riieu I!BniI .ainuo32!b

.in l3woI ioI 2fl3urI3EaasM lii IEflqaoff aoo iifiif vfl-'in3wi au rhiw bniaud a&f

3rlflo auusua rhuir1 rh1o buua uoiorh £ nbIshbnu ai DID 3r11 iuam lEnil E aA

dh buia aidu lo atLuai rh moiI .noiuisi1iiu ii1u bn ansIq uniT1ib aui ni alEubivibni

Ath uithqoiqqA .anBLq 3fUflhJ2fli ch1JfI ai ioI mor13a unrrdaujbE Aai-I £ .)1Bh3bnu 'm DID

aiovb moil amLdoiq nB dainimib 11Eithsiadua ot IEiintoq rh asd ninq ni n3rniauibs

.noiba uxn 3du ni aauoaib w ai nOii3313a

-io1qmo gnomi 1oEI ini1inia ai noiio1a a13vbE uic1u iaoua aoibuia 3S3 iuO

uaai unfii-Ioqfni ns orn&d noiu3La a1vbE nimix w aiin 3di rliocf ni .anii!q dhhid baid

:rnEa r!i a! noii3a oaivb iol noai oumixoiq dt aao fliod ni bnA .ai' ini ni

aioiloq auoino aa1 dflo iao3 rh ai rthlq auoin aom 3rh b mo b3i3312 1qoq 'fh1Bf1

Ia ;nwonA zw aloollo odi iofiE lilnu boinoooi '1liñ ion aaw mo!doiq o± bmviaH mA .IIoI

.bomnornolqmi nood io' asrf noiiij!oa ffnoi-gnoL on lud boinoooi nood aarl moldoiq ofli DID

nohI ivbA i)U ou 3i9I1m2 .111

nbi :ai DID oiIi bus frrsvisHbo aoonoiioqxo ofli 'd boaiin oui oisibommi iaom odT

nso woH ¶oa ob ii bluoda wod ana1q oonsiiJani aaoios noiiaoloe oaiovbs ioiob oi elnaw io'oLqmo

ofli boosl 'or1iIi ocoorlo bluow 'odi ansLq — enslq oisiiqoiqqs looloc ot elsubivibni io ow

Os

Page 23: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

qicuj Ab oquI MLC jijjA 2C oo co ocqcrQUG OUJJ f1JJOI2 opI2 bbci joi cxmubjc 2bccnJ pc cobiX CJJLC2 JOL

!111mflUU!0U COACLC

rnq cobXmiu OL pLnJq uuJc uou-ouiJnJL? Lf12 uq 2iuqiLqic MCCJUIOU ruqrnuniq bcqiuc GXiUi rib o c jg iwbjcwcu nrnouu cobAmu OL LouJJc1jLA qmJiq2 2C1 2IJL A!2 uq CObAiJJCU2 LOL occrrbioij 2bcccp uq bpX2icJ jJCLbX jjoitUJIJJqC OfTf-O-UCMOLJ( pUGj2 jOL WCUfJ PUP T OOO m!mflW JUCJ OL pcuuuimqc i UJJUIUJnUJ o gj bGLcuf COACLC ou qnLrpjc uicqJcj cdrnbwcu miq bbJ!uc2

jpc bLoboq IMi2 1OL bjiu O LCUJOAC JJC J UJ!jJ!OU cb ou 1JLimc cxbcuq!giLc

ijnipjc cowbciou ou bLourw qc2iu OL cx&ubjc ipc cwbJoAcL 2wuqLqic2 qur

B'I IJJCLC i uofpci icjj wuqLqJJu bju ojuu uiA iiiuq rib iwbcqiu

2uqSLqiCq1

DCP ou inc o 2uqILqi1ou cci.nujA iocrz ou pc bI.1cnpn2 oj puc fO G

2wuq9LqJJu A1JcfA o oj iu2ruiucc bjrn i,ip qAcL2c 2cjcf1ou couccuia tu uJJuq

O fpC OUC 12 W02f CULOf12 LOL fJJC!L uCCq2 uqccq fIJQY3IC 2IIJ LCCWfJA bLoboq

MJfJJ bn.f1cr1J couccma mcuj pcJfp iii OL qipcc cc iijj uo miic wou b191J2

uqqisiu bju2 (c Lcdrnuu luJ COACLf lu jj bju) mJpf pcjb JjJUMA poac

C ic pic 2riC JLccqow o cpoicc flf AoJq 2CACL bLopjcwa o jACL2C 2CJCCfiOU

iI1fp Aucq bJiu2 ¶iuq coufuprlfiou Lfc2

bJiu2 JAG coujuc OIIL SIJIqA2I2 o qcccufLJicq 2Acw MGLG iuq!Mqnj2 COO2G pom uJcun

2CCfOL JU LGCGUf ACL2 fMifL LGf CL CJJOJCC jOL COU2f1WCL2 cuq LCIfCL COUJbGfIfTOU ifUJOU pcp

u bbLocp iionjq urn coufLLA fO fpc uoi.ui2 o OTIL uiou uq pc WOACWCU o pc Cjf

ibbLobuUc b1rn2 iicu cobpic joc1ou pcjfp rri uq uuonuccq bLCGLCUCC2 2IICJJ

ou bo22JpiJifA tAonq pc fO JOOJ( f iuqiAiqr1Je CJrnLCfGU2fJC2 mq fjJGU 22IIJ fJJGW fO

fpCA onjq !b02C JA 2/IMfCjJJU porn ouc bJ9u fO 9UOfpCL

Page 24: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

rnn bnid '1urrno1-non bnii mn bnsid is1ufrno1 3fl3n3g 1urrno1 idi ) ain3m(Eqo3

no iol 111811211611w bnA .noian3rnib 21111 no enslq 13fl3d 8ninib 111 btidic1ni 3d 111w 2OMH

io noijEMliju 36fl6 ol 2rIBIq 'lo ii1id6 di no gnibn3q3b 2n61q idIo iol 111811 3d Ion sm n6Iq

2ii2iv 3163 'dsd-113w1o l3dmun 3111 no 2iimiI 1116w Ion Id8im aOMH .2i3bivolq riliw 3161108311

-1o1-31 31111w 31R2 n 2l3bivoTq iid1 21121v 3111 116 3v6f1 3Iqo3q t1 ol nFri3i31q 31qrfISx3 101

2wonl)1 d 1idi 13o1qm3 dt 21 In3biino3 3mm 311T .3ldEulBv alimil 113112 bniI m 2nfiIq 331V'132

bluod2 3d 8111111w 3'iom 3111 n61q 220136 Isrniiqo 21 21(11 111 bns 38613V03 lb 118123b Ismirqo 3(11

.idI b31163 2'sw1E Ion 21 noi1Eib16bn12 luH .23310113 n6Iq 3ib16bn612 01 3d

3w11 .enoi11uqoq 311c1cq2ib 3V611 11112 111w '3d1 13v3wod b3ib16bn6i2 316 en$1q1 rl3va

1n313f113 )1i3ffl ol 316 '3f111i 233"o1qm3 31Bf13 01 2O3fl 3(11 2n131q'lo 1203 31J11 3111 woml 01 1121W

11112 1163 13'o1qrn3 3111 .1113m11om3 n6Iq 111 2311r16q21b 323111 '101 1211 1b6 ol 3V6f1 Iliw 3W 233iOf13

2231 8fI1isd3 21163ffl m3flq 3IsrIqolqqA .'13iErIqo1qqE 33fl 11133 3r1 Ii 33iod3 lo mob3oil 13110

ni11q 6 ri&1i oiom bifE o1qo3q )12r1-d8irflo 2l3dmun OJEfIothoqolq2Ib 2611 i1'Ii 21203 nBlq £ n&11

ol 233nq 1211 1b6 laum 3W 33f13223 ciT .3Iqo3q 13111116311 21101113 '131EnoirIoqo1q2ib 1111 21203

.fIBlq 11363 111 xim )1211 3111 'iol 111110336

.lrI3mIaulbs )12fl iol 2m21f16f133ffl lEiin3Joq iuol 23161J16V3 11011332 2iflT

c?1 ñi'°t

b'rnv-i6H lsdi 3110 3111 21 ln3ml2ulbE A2n10 bodli3m nwom1 123d 113d16 123bIr13 3111

l2om 311110 muim3lq 3111 3ibi2du2 :2o1qm3 11112 DID 311116111 bn13 QQI ol lorIq b3'o1qrn3

.31J331bn1 bluow 3no16 233n513Thb 1eh 116111 oId6b'iOllE 310(11 21 Ii 16111 02 3i1oq 2110131138

3213VbE blob 01 6W fIOfflfflO3 t2om 3111 nood '1163hoieic1 2611 1101111102 21111 oliriW

Page 25: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

ol noi1nii on 2'Eq ii nid oT .noiiuloa ishqoiqqs iaom 1i ai ii vibd ion ob w noiiob2

i n1q £11 i&fi mia 'Iqmie ii ;2n1q diIs3fL nithiw 2noii!uqoq b noiii2oqmo3 !EUI3E fli

2rrwim1q niibiadua IirtW .3L1om lo xim aiow £ ol nb 3d i2um i&!i 3vi2noqx3 iom

di1d iifi ooi1a 01 o1qm3 iol 23V1if133f1! 3f11 20311b31 o2Is ii j101133132 3al3vbE aiiob

'1in3i3ffl3 3tfrI3qo oi 2nBlq idI viIn33n! 'n 2oiEnirniI3 ii 13vo31oM .'1in3i3iflo 2nLq o3flBlJJ2flf

'd mthm5lq 21i 232iEI fu3Iq 3v12n3qx3 I2om 3r11 i&ft o1qrn1x3 iol 32oqqu2 .'1oviiib3qrnoo 3oiiq io

OQ 'd 3i1oq ovi2n3qx3 3rIi nisibi2du2 i iofqm r1i 11 .2ffiolq i2ood oi tIoTI3 ffE flu •

I

23o1qm3 2iimuI JIEiinEi2du2 2irIT .33r1q flu 3aB3l3ni 012 £ 1rio a Iliw 'oLqm3 ifl3313q

.enJ3Iq 3vt133113 12o3 i2om 3r11 kro b ol viin33n!

3111 d b3bivolq 21 2fflIJIfn3lq flO IE1 bi2du2 bo i3fl3 3f!i no 33f13biV3 3viIsin3i 3mo2

IbI rrwimoiq OMH lii wocfa LdT 2A .DID di bilE ii213vinU blsv-IEHIo flO2rIBqfflO3

11EunnE 1n3313q \'.Q) b3in3m3lqmi sw 3lirI noiiiidiilnoo IEup3 d1 l3flE bini3H is 1biqsi iom

.bon3q msa 3r11 lii (!liwnris in33isq Q) DID di is bib Ii nsrli (ÔQQI bns QQI nwi3d

liwp3 3111 isili is 3r11 QQI ni biswisll is muimiq flu 3nu133b isL s woil2 31uiT bbnI

DID odi is bocI3iEm ion sw noii3ubol muimoiq aidT .boinomotqmi sw olin noiiudnino3

1i 2muimolq OMH ni oniI3ob biqsi oloffi odT .boioTlo 2oioiIoq odflo 2oiihsfimi2 odi oiiq2ob

bns OQQI noowiod ;(?(!1 ol ioriq diwoi muimoiq biqsi oiom ioflo 1oiom Ion bib bisvisH

ISILI 2i23IJ2 aidT .DID odi is lovot orli wobd o21s 25 bisvitH is diwoi muimoiq Iso-i QQI

.2OMH ni 2ooo1qmo bisvH idI 2flOii3iJb3l mthrnoiq ilk boiluaoi olin floiiudnino3 Isupo odi

moil oisrIo iodirI ni i1u231 ansEq ovi2fioqxo oiom 01 23ibid1J Isniism isdi i3oqalJ2 oW

odi si1si 01 i 21o'oIqmo idi Isog ono 33fl1 .boLisvoiq o2iwlodio ovsd bhiow nsdi 2nsIq odi

hI moos ion 230b 2nslq 12o3-rlgid 01 'bi2du2 Isriigrsm s nuisijioq1oq o1di22oq 2muhdnolq i2owoI

Page 26: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

.noiiu1o ti*iqoiqqi li

.21U io idiff 1i 'd io b3nuo33s s-rn 23uJftbn3qx3 1a31b3m 1o u3r12 1EL A

'".2rnthm1q u1bi kh oi sw no d bluo3 1qo3q ieoo-r1Lf1 io1 3fI1JJ2fl15I \(IoiEbnsm gniv&f

1o iuo io1 biaq iw (L1BunrI8 OOO 2qJ$fll3q) inuomB niiti E 13V0 22fl3 us sf1 oaoqqu2

2fIIq nor!T .emuimiq 3fUflU2fl1 115 no xsi rrrioinu s d bthnth 25W fI3if!W flUO335 1siino s

oi1i3q2 r1i on ns1q i1li ni unvi lsioi oi noiiloqolq flu iu i2o3-dgirl idI sq bluow

rigid 3r11 iol 31di2noq21 1iismhq 21 quoig i2o3-rlgirI dflI .quoig ioo-dgid 3di1o tnm11om3

r1T .rn1doiq noibI ivbs rli aubi bluo3 21f11 mi1q uoing iom dJ1o 2i2o3

orli oI 2nsIq li bfooq 5U 21U i2oo-flgirflo 2fI33 di no sd i l3gnEb gnhis2n3qmo3

.noisxi1iiu iinli ioinom o vinoni

iuo VIJ33 uds 3ns2du2V1r1sd Isnom rh oi a1311s1q isd 51i2 33flB11J2fIi3I dT

di ni ;2rnuimolq nslq moll bvorni i noiiibnoo lsIu3irulq s d1 gnibnq2 us paso isdi nI

dT .2rnuirn5lq nslq mofi bvorn31 ai inuorns nisri B vods gnibnq2 us aso 33ns1uani1

j3v31 anqx io noiiibno3 d idldw iuo bns3 alsubivibni rli isrIl a' 1snoiisi li3lLqml

.aiad milob s no biuasm jioiioba oaivbs f1i lo iaom iol Jnuo33s

315 al3bn3qa rigid II 3O313VO 3flE1iJ2ni31 bluow 21203 ni 33n313Thb 3rli 1o rloum woH

33n313Thb orli 1o oiBrla di awoda 8 5iugiI .noiiuloa 3rD 3d 'sm 33ffB1u2fl!31 n3di jn3ldolq 3rD

a1-isq li3Iuothsq d 161 b3inuo3oE ai isrli DID 3rD is aOMH 3rD bris '3iIoq 'iinm3bni 3rD nwi3d

flu gnibnqa isril awoda 5IugiI rD flu isd las! 3rD 1qmsx3 ioI .noiiudhiaib gnibn3qa 3rD lo

.33r151U2n131 lo fl0i221J32ib IEl3rlog iom s iol (ÔQQ I) l3ausfb!33X bris 1311u3

Page 27: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

33n313Thb nibn3q2 113101 3fIilo if13313q 1no iol iII1J03313 noiq 13q OOOOOI 3vocls inIJomI3

8 1no iol inhJo3313 ic 1q OOO 3vodE nibn3qa bbnI .ans1q1o ai owl dt n33w13d

v11$linoD .nsLq auoin 1 bni woin iom n33wd 3thbn3q ni 33n313Thb 3dilo 1n3313q

aiau 11ma t&1i i anslq 3rD nwiod n313TIib r1i lo ?lIud laEv 3rD qx bluow 'nsm iI3riw 01

ni gnibrr3q2 .OMH 3d1 ni ri&1i amisl3 IEunnl3 13IIJ1I fI3urn 3E13VE 'ai1oq iinrn3bni 3rD fl

.ioo n1q rn 233n3131hb 11I6vo 3r111o 2blirli-owi iol in1Jo33E L1O213 13q OOOU wol3d alnuornz

biEq nq tno-i3TIib (3i1oq iirrrn3bni r1i ni biisi3r! 1iom I3V 3lomlo 11ua51 3111 3d 'm aruiT

.1oq33f3lE lo 3IJ 3Vii3fli31 o1 10 33iV13e iol

'llEilnBi2dua i11ib 113311 ol 3viarI3qx3 '1om311x3 ion 31.6 0ff W 21n31113q io1 23xim )1r1 II

lo EW 3(11 flu rI3IJm rf2ilqmo33s ion Iliw eiou 12o3-r1ir1 iol 33rt61uni31 (13(11 nc1q noms

.fl01133132 3a13vb13 lo 33fI3iJ32f103 3(11 gni3ub3l

K A?1

.in3mialJLbi$ 3v1i33q2oth1 bnis 3vii33qo1q ic in3rrIi2u1bs AthIo aborli3m owl Il3nuI 3rIT

no 3TOffl bn3q 2f10111bfl03 (11131133 rhiw 31q03q bn13 3g13 nrrE3d-b1if13 lo fl3fflOW 3!qo3q 13b10

3llJaa3rn bluoz 3wIi wdT .anoiiibnoo 3of1i iuorliiw 10 U01 iodho flu 320111 nBfh 31133 IS3ibOffl

(13133 01 2in3rnQ3q £11q133 13 iwjbs bluo3 3W oi 10 i 2331101(13 nslqlo noiludrileib ffi

lo 1th ni 233n313111b 3rD iol b3iE2n3qmo3 3113 2n1$Iq 3(1111 .233n313Thb 820(11 iol 1(1(103313 01 nBIq

3n3i3fl13 oiuq li3rD 'd '1r,o ioThb Iliw emuimolq bAl13m 3viiil3qmo3 13 flu n3rh 2bo1u2ni 113111

13 (II 2331v1321o OOOOOf 13V0 riiu 3lqo3qlo nibn3q2 1131o1 ion 21 2irD 113111 o1o4 arch ffI3i2'2 33(1131112(113113 iobnU .OOOOO I ovods 2i isdi gnibn3q2 isril lo lnuorru3 3(11 13(11131 hid

.b3lu2ni3l 3d bhiow isril inuorns 3(11

Page 28: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

.O3fl31311ib

onhr1i1E3f1 M2 bni a briedo 3w oqqu JI noiia lo noiision 3rIi niU

atn3msq 1o1qm3 i bliio w enr1T .3i3i1oq UO13n3 2231 bn iom offi iii 311 o1n3 lo

o'o1qm3 ni 2s1d 3rIi 3iEnimulo bluow thiOmSq 3aOffi 33fII •M2=MH bni =1H lo 2ruilq 22013E

3d bluow 3'o1qm3 2nio1 23g1&b ni 33n3131uib '1no 3111 noii33132 3213vbE d b32uE3 23&f 3

illiw o!qm3 bivoiq in3mnsm 3g1613 airiT .nLq 3isl3bom 3111 ni nivi \(3n313fi13 3il1

ôI.nBfq fI313i113 120ff! 3111 3200113 01 23VIifl33ni flthqo1qqE

1th nhu3m ;inomi2ujbE 1th 3vii33q2olq b3f1r131 i m 233n31311!b Ath nhua3M

b3in3m3lqrni 3d no 2bol113m 1i II .in3mi2uLb. Ath 3vii33q2oIi5I b3rmoi i zo m 233n31311ib

1n313fl13 ifs 33ubolq iliw 3iod3 1&rbivibni bns 233nq ir1ii 1t b13i' 111w 'r1i 13v!i3&I13

ioI .b3v-132do 3d n ioo 3on3uflth 15111 aioiosl 3rD us 1di3r1w 21 noiiiJp iotsm 3rLT .3mc31uo

II .ifI3biOni m1u3svoib1s3 1oj3m £ 3V5f1 111w 3IU225Iq boold r1id 1111w 3Iqo3q Ifs ion 31qrnsx3

£ 3v5r1 01 '13)1 iom 315 'd1 orlw 3Iqo3q di iuiq booki rfir1 1111w or1i norris

i1i no 1no b32Ect 'is1i2 in3mi2uLbs Ath £ 3i1oq uoin iom 3111 olni io1 in3bi3ni

.3i3Iqmo3ni 3d bluow 31U2231 boold r1ii1 lo 33n32d13 io 33fl3231

Is3ib3mlo noiiudii1ib 3rD 32u533d oiism3fdolq i inmiujbs AthIo a3n3i31qmoani 31ff

gnibn3q2 di1o lisi 3rn311x3 3rD ni 3d 111w cfi womf 2lsubivibnill .b3w3A2 o 21 nibn3q2

1Is3imono33 3d 11il2 1153 noiiaoIo2 3213vb5 3VI32do 10111153 3W 21013s1 01 3ub noifudili2ib

idi 2fl1VE2 1203 3111 IsiD o no '1no 2bn3q3b 3310113 nslq fhls3ff 11113w a*iow 21f{T

Ii ma .13)hsm 3111 3biu '13isnqo1qqs Iliw 2ns1q 3(11 n33wi3d in3l3TlibrIi noiq 1sniism 3111

3(11 3)hI hs1u3ii1sq 31 qoq 2 wol 3(1102 E2 11 3Iqrnsx3 iol) 31015 's1q 0215 233n313151q Isnoel3q 3111 3flO13V3 rIigmr13 brm noiq 11os iol 1n313Thb 3d bluow oriq 1331103 3111 (nztq 'iinm3bni

.1n313ffl3 3d ion bluow 33F1 3(1152

Page 29: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

ifl1o om i&li EJEb DID iuO no boog i inmuLbE kh1i nv narioqmi

13±010 33n3n3qx3 oIT .noiudhiib rli lo IIBJ 311i ni on aw n1q ow aaoo ni 03n513Thb

.nh3T1o nB!qIo m3th3q I3noi2!r1 nii311ib ol 3ub 2qBlfI3q 1311ib 'm 2Oiiirn3

1311s fIE3 a131uni 1i b3l3bnilI b13v 3d Iliw n3rniau1bE Ath vt33qoth1 io 3vd33qo1

i q 213o1qm&ui o!qrnx3 ioI .m3i' in3mi2ulbs Aeh di1o !i! ni oi1q gniboo li3di

1E1uaihq 'Eq iwni brffi iuoiq boold did ifliw 3Iqooq !IolfI3 JEfII afIBIq o 31Bu131IJ

no bn3q3b 111w m31a in3miuib Ath 3± ionthb i1i afL noioq B 1or11f1w 310ff 01 noiln3fls

3f11 no a ff3um a 13is1uooE noiIBffrioIni 21± b1o331 oi 21u2ni b 3nni1liw bns 'ii1idB 3±

313V '1iE1u3ii-u1q aw m3fdolq nibo3qu 21± bbnI .noiiBIuqoq 3± 111 33fl3bi3fli 31111

.(8I 13d2niD briB l3hsD) ,lBoib3M iol motva gni11 D5IU 3rlilo noiiBln3m3Iqmi 3f11

a) Lbiqsi niioiq nd auf 2bodbm in3m1au1b ilth 3vi13113 no r1om5I

1th 3vii33q2olqlo 2bo±om 1n3-nuD .(w3ivi B iol VQQI nr1mq&f 3 bna AwuH auo1iw3M

.nibn3q2 ls3ib3m IBubivibni ff1 33flEISV 3fhuo 1n33i3q 01 oi iuods nisIqx3 fIE3 ln3fniauLbE

b3b3qx1o 318r12 3± iuod,s mo w rni2' in3cn1iJ1b11 Ath £ nini23b 111 31El lou Ei eith 3liftW

03n313111b 3±10 ismi11 .nibn3q2 lE3ib3rn 113111311 ion eb3niElqx3 3d ff113 111 nibn3q2 IE3ib3rn

31 233n013Thb nibn3q2 b3133qx3 1irli 12ggu2 gnibn3qe 11131b3m 111111311 bn11 b3133qx3 n33wi3d

2m3i2\2 in3fnl2ujbs Aah ln3TIu3 ifIfli o2 233n313T1ib nibrI3q2 11111131110 1n3313q 01 0 luodE

.223f13V1133113 1133b1 10 1n3313q (0\0 1) 0 01 (\) 1n313q 0 3V3if1 313

limil oi flguon3 21 33f1ff1112fl131 tuorhiw 10 riliw — 2233311210 3313b airfi l3rli3dW

3311111112ff! lo 2in3mri3qx3 w31 n33d 3v&f xd1 3isb oT .wom1 ion ob w .noii33132 3al3vbB

.13W2fl11 fill obwolq 01 au wolls bluow iErli in3mi2ulbll 1th m3i2'2 £ fIl 3310f13

Page 30: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

iioiwbnoD .VI

blul d b3rni2inimbs 31 tEIiI 21w1q fI1J01f1i 33ffB11J2fIi fIiIE3fi 3V13331 2ns3n3rnA i2oM

-- oor1a di ni1q 3111 no bn3q3b 233'o!qm3 01 23g16f13 (L1S3iqT .213o1qrn3 d bsibi2du2

tEdi i 11ui odT .a3o1qm3 01 w11 3111 1311ir1 3111 13o1qm3 d11 ol muim3iq i11ir1

3!qo3q 13)1312 3111 ibiadue 01 'q leum 231311oq 33fIElU2ni 1JO13fl3 iom aoor1o odw 3Iqo3q

.no1133132 13vbE iivni in3monr1 2i11T .oi1oq Ovi2flOqxO iom 3111 3200113 011w

ni1q oi anoiiudilino3 Isup3 eebivoiq doiclw ii213vinU b16vH o 233n31i3qx3 3rlT

lo 1n3313q 8 23ibi2c1u2 doidw (DID) noiaimrnoD 33n1u2nI quoiD 2ii32u11asEM 3111 bnll

2'b1v1H .n133no3 bhow 1ii £ i noiia3Io2 o21ovb tEdi wo112 i2O3 ni1q1o 2e31b1g31 amuirn5Iq

noiio1 3213vbA .311n noiiudhino3 hwp3 nti b3in3m3lqmi ii n11w IEliq2 1i13b ni b311s13 qq DID 311T .oohq 31dEnoa31 E Is b81811o 3d ion bliJo3 '3itoq 2U013fl3 i2orn 3111 isdi isi 02 sw

d i-isq Hi bns 3lirl noiiudhino3 Isup3 ns ol nivom ion d hsq ni jioiisuiia s rloiia b3biovs s11

rIign311sfI3 f133d asH airiT .risfq 2UO13fl3 120ffl 311110 212033111 331Jb31 01 2q312 gniAJth3bnu

.111331103 £ 2fIiSfflOl n01133132 3213VbE bris 1OV3WOf1

22O13 3310113 £ H3V! 3IB odw 233'o1qm3 ans1q l11h 3111 3)1si 01 2b3iuani l11h 3111 13g oT

ni 2b3luani lo 23X1ffl 3dT .m311i iol a3iIqqs isdi 1203 II! lSiifl5l3Ilib 3111 b31s113 3d bluoda anslq

m1u31115q s iol a8rIivsa 1203 odi 1no ;a3oo1qrn3 01 231s113 i33TIs ion bluo11a anslq Isui3E 3111

22013E mutrn3lq 3111 'cmv Iliw a13'o1qm3 1n31a'2 s ibua nI .noiai33b aid 13311E bluoda Isubivibni

bris aniHq 22013E anisia (1115311 b3'rl3ado bris aoi11qs1om3b Hi 23311313111b m no b3asd anstq

ls3fliqfrI3 1u1315D .3on3rIoqx3 2ff11EI3 m rio b3asd aIn3m'sq ol anoii33TIo3 13r11ufl 3A5m sm

anibnfl insiIoqmi iaorn mob owl 3Iqfnsx3 moST .aa330mq airli 3b1u8 01 lthin3aa3 21 Jn3rnaa3aaE

8

Page 31: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

couJbCJ!ou MOLJC MCJJ

qcucq uq cwbjucjjA iujouucq U -qThwcuf 2X2cw i C GUJJ o WjCC pCIP JUffI21JCC

ACL2C 2CJCCPOU Lc2nhlGq jOW IJJC WOACWCIU O JOM-U2j( CUJbJOAQC2 1wbjcwcuiu CLCJf1JjA

IIJC qjCLCUCC JU CO CMCCU JJC tuqCuJui uq HV'IO bojicic ruq i u)ouA o

porn jJC GIG MCLC 2c1LbUC: 2bduqJu 1OAG bCL ACL JCCOflUICq oL oujA g bcLccu oj

Page 32: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

9MI91913$I

bqU nA : uflibnqxE IE3ibM1o noi1inrnnoD c1T iirInoM .D IIRIA bns .J AM hH :(I)1 I QQI itK Xk

:mijimiq Lq dfLsH o 'iivii2n imunoY niorabbI .1. 1uI brie J aEmoriT I!L1Jmd3IJH .ÔQQI nhq i\ M&tk icno1iID iii nmriqxH thiuifiM £ moil 3nbiv

3jj31q 1oib3M :oaionI xbnI xiM a1$D 3moibM 3dT idaniO .H !uE bnl3 o3E1D 1ohED .8QI 3nu1. QE-5I bns51 331 D5IU bni$ nigA 2gnBfD

13ij&foai35I h3doSI iii iiriuI dt ioI 5I3ib3M e.M bivEU i1iUD .ÔQQI noiJuiianI anbIooiH rIT :.D.U noinidasW iio\i \oM

nvJiHT1obE1T rIT :3nE1uanI fIflsH idi ido5I r1tn bru .M bivEU iIiuD .WQI idobO QV .oM 1qE nbhoW 5HHM noiob aiovbA brie noiiiiqmoD

Thma1osiBD bnt$ dqoiiaisJ io1 nsiuni5P 12iJBth133X .1. bud3i2 bn .M bivU i1iuD .VQQI '(IEu1dT EIQ .oM ioqi nbhoW 81V1

£ moft aiLua5I :noiiiqmo bgnEM b orrnvi111 r1T bwoU n-i8 bilE io5I nEmbII InqA EioanniM lo iaivinU 43 0a351 aoivi cIiIH io1 tuiitanI n3mi13qx LEwisM

quoiD :AM noiaoEI "anE1q DIEflo aia'nA 3uIsV viii15I noiaaimmoD 3onInuanI quoiD QQ I idoiO noi22irfffnoD oonsiianI

bo aia'IEnA ciA :iii2 3viiibqmoD OMH cfi niaT 3uIoW ElEdis8 bns I) ncIq2 ILiH aliElbA 3iIduq bo zflhinI iitIoI U .M hdo5I 3rIT nianooaiW ni oluhiEq bilE 22333U

.QQf an2 iqs nthoW

"08Q1 ni 3n nobi3 risLq iiD bgEnEM fiuJ bIoiH bilE 3-ido5I iIliM .QRI-RI 4QQI 8I 'M ooKI K

bnU in3mauibA Aai5I nBmqErID .U cirlot bns sbnuloM •q rlcpaot oauoc1wT4 .VQQI '(lBirid&T iia-13vinTJ b11'riEH omim e1S3kbM

.M.5J cii jq rIiIUHbo 33iofD fli Hi 3njaia13q 1 IJU1bI3X blJ3d3i51 bni JH!f131$Ot qqiT4 iiM .ab3 iiaao5I .LJ bits 13fl13do .V-V4 8QI aai lAt :TD 43iWn1D ô .IoV i5

nA :aihsM 3nB1u2nI viiqrnoD cii muhdiIiupa iLii . rlq3aot bits jscbiM bLidoactfo5I oo\ iok. rroiismiobnI b&hqrnI lo aimonoo rI3 no 'saa .QIô-Q:O8 ôVQI

Page 33: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

C0WbGI!i!01J 2GU!IJaI 2WkoW flIJ!AGL2JLA OCLOPGL JÔÔ2

gogj) VUUG 9GGou suq PIG!! ojowrnJ' ,HGJip hJ11 CPO!cG: EMCG Ewai!cu!c2 !u yuscq

Page 34: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

CO

CO

I,

L!2I 16A61 (2)

EWbJOGL

HP

OGUGLOII2

D!U.GLG114II qGq!ou: JJJIJ EWb10GL uq EWb10GG VC41OU

E!flL6 J

? çscc2

Page 35: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

CC,

EC

>a)

C-)0C)

0

0

2tJ916 o bOObIG IU AJO6L96 bi9U

2E08

0

0 1

05

03

(80o\0 np!q)EWbIOAGG CpSLäG

C1flS GLGUCG

0•4

02

622 woqeiseAIfl Ot

EWbIOAGG Cp9L86

oeEc

E!8tILG : bISU CIJO!CG EdI11IIPL!9I

Page 36: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

lI.1O6: bLGw! 916!UJaae qoII92J

bbOAGSL

8OOO

483 Iaa4 J882 iaae 1aa

2OOO

22OO

eooo0a)E

fI,ooo

I,2oo

LE!anLe 3: b691 E9W!Il b16W!t1W2 Sf H9LASLqJ

Page 37: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

FMO6: EWbIO66 C1J91a6 !2 lu iaae OII9L2 9uq !e t9W!I bopck

AGSL

.laas 1883 .iaat .iaae maeO 1

m JOOOEC-0>a,0-CCo1a)

0

5OOO

3OOO

Oo\0

EULOIIWGUf !U 4J bbO 9 H9LA9L 1

E!äflLe : bGSl EWbIO1ee CP91ä6 t0L WG bbO suqj

EWbIO1G6

--

•- .—

000mr0Ea,C

42o\0

2o\0

,lOo\0

500\0

52o\0

EULOIIW6U

Page 38: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

MOG bL0W!flW90 u ' aae qoi,s2

[aIuq6wurA.bbovHvjoa I

E!2C91 AG9L

mao ma ma J83 aa mae mae aa23000 . -r

24000

22000

-

-Y-- -- --V

- .--e'ooo -

Z000 --- -

28000 -

2a'ooO ----_________________________________________ ____________________________-- -

ElanLe 2: bGSI E9W!II blewlnw2 JU pe cicj

Page 39: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

bns inmebnI io epis0ee'oIqmlse : 010 erlJ s aeioiloq OCICI

ooo,r

OO8

AA 0 CD CD - 0)

0 CD rrK CD

uv,-q. < 0 -o 3 UI

oo

. o

seer aeer eeer beet ceet seer reer oeer

iseY IsoaiR

Qqq• hnmebnI

.oitoq Iims s io el bns aisilob aee r ri al egisrlo eeoIqm3 :etol.1

Page 40: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

1 uqow • bbO

E!2C91 AG9L

iaaO 882 J889 J882o\0 I

a-I

C) 50o\O

30o\0 - --

32o\0 -

v"IJecIcE!änLe : EULOIIWGUf !U uqewuf1_suq bbO b01!C!62

Page 41: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

ROo\0

E!anLe 9:

beuqlu CLoflb (jpori2suq2)12-50 50-52 52-200-2 2-JO 10-12

Oo\0

SOo\0

[PO-2 2-.1oo '100+

0a)C)a)

— J9L6 04 JO9I 0021 DftteLeuce pA beuqIua reAei cic

Page 42: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

fLC J opcAf!ouj,oc: jpc qi tc OL Juq!AiqfIJ2 tu ijcJ ?cn

p bCLCCJJflJ

bcccuij

bcLcGupJc IQt

bcciuijc

bcLccuijc I t 1•0

TO bcLccuiJc ZQO 03o\0

ACTJ

bCLCUI!JG yUJOmJ JJLGCmJJn!U!AC

D!2p.!pc!ouo bcuqiu iu w eicL'P! J

Page 43: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

MJJL lpc MCIJJ ALC 2bcuqiu lu jcurco fG c- rnq cx-qiupfwou o ojc

I4oc: Di I.oL 2C1J Aca JJJC 2buqiu iuqcx r

{Jo.oHo] [ot] [1001

bcuqiujuqx 1eQ33 13Qct

JOOo\0 JOOo\° JO0\°

8

t3 33

30t't 3Q

T-J N 53

<1 Ø\0 Oo\O

cc OO2I1DWPCL OEIJLOJ1C2 QJ8 33f3t J580Ô

J,C2ITLC uqGumJ hbO HIAIO2

V D!I1P!OU CLO JIJf1LIJCG bI" GIC DJpIc 3

Page 44: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

JJC14 scj) onb2qi2pJpfTiOU OL 1JJC LOflb iipojc fl2JU uq 2CX (L0LLC 12 OL 4-f AG1L-oq2 B°fP L1fC2 JL 21JqLqiCq o pc icJ4oC: L 12 JOL j ArL-oJq MouJcu flCL Jcj

H"4 VfICJC

bLCU1JCA

OTo\°

4\O

O3to\0

3g\O

O5Xo\0

5R0\o

couq1ou juqcumiA bbO HNO2

bCLCCU M11J ouqiiou P? bJ

1çrc- uq x-yq1c12fcq juciqcuc ojru niIi!oue oic DJfpIc

Page 45: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

J4oc: jLU2WOU 10 OL OUJ IJJC JJØ 1LC UO iucjrlqcq 'U IJJCWPF

JçJtO J3J0\° J3o\0 JTo\°

AJOACL2 'fQVII J2 I

jowl IOOo\O I OOo\° J OOo\O I OOo\0

(w) J Q 31

iq

Suq SQ 5t 33 JO

(r°'1) 43\0 SQo\° 3Qo\°

bcuqiu OrncJ4Jj UqIJJUi1A HIAJO HIALO JJqm1A

(j 8o\° oJJuqGWJJ!1A EUtOJJCC) (00o\0 °1.HIAJO E0lI2)IuquJui1A -. HIAIO HIALO

-.

jLIJ2WOU Oj9UJ!J!C p) bI' uq owou 'U bcuqiu D!21L!Pn4!OU GIG DWjp1c t

Page 46: rvvf063 - The National Bureau of Economic Research · SI3HM DT4DLIOW SIdqAq I5I3 35LEIVUA MOITDHJ3 MI HTJA3H 3DMA5IUWT bivsU .M iliu bi&bi5I .t 1IJ&bI3X nbhoW 1q8 VOl JAMOITAM UA5IUH

CULOjJ1JJCU LC2

McJjJcq CLO22 HIAIO2 f12iU COUCUJbOLUOfl2

CJJU iu LJ mrjX bLcuJJnw2 hLCWJfIIJJ2 LCMow: ECP CUL? 12 1}JC ACLf rnJIJnJ bLccu

IôO-ô't Fôo\°

-5ô0\o

o\O

cuoq Liq GIG

\f1flJffJ bCLCCIJ GP'-'

GP' !U I�I H"!O bLCWff11J uq GIG..LPIC