Russian Federation: Facts & Figures, November 2011 (via ModernRussia.com)
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Transcript of Russian Federation: Facts & Figures, November 2011 (via ModernRussia.com)
Russian FedeRationFacts and Figures | November 2011modernrussia.com/factsandfigures
1
Table of conTenTs
Key Geographical Data 2Map of Russia 4Administrative Structure 6Rest of World Comparison 8Key Macroeconomic Indicators 10Exports 12Imports 13Employment and Education 14Economically Active Population 15Eurasian Customs Union – A Large Addressable Market 16Human Capital 17
Infrastructure Investment 18
Investment Priorities 21
Priorities in Modernisation of Russia’s Economy 22
Incentives for Investment Projects 27
Inwards FDI Structure 28
Outwards FDI Structure 29
Capital Inflow into Russia 30
Top Inbound M&A Deals 31
Recent IPOs 32
Case Study – Pharmaceutical Industry 33
Banking System 34
Taxes in Russia v. Other BRIC Countries 35
Privatisation Plans 36
2
Russian fedeRaTionKey GeoGRaphical daTa
Capital: MoscowRussia is located in the eastern part of Europe and in the northern part of Asia
Total Area1 17,098.2 thousand km2 (as of 1 January 2010 agricultural acreage amounted to 13% of the total area; forests – 51%; surface waters (including marsh) – 13%)
Population 142,905.2 thousand people – (as of 14 October 2010)
Density of the Population 8.4 people per km2 – (as of 14 October 2010)
Maximum LengthLongitudinal direction – 4 thousand kmLatitudinal direction – 9 thousand km
State BordersNorthwest – Norway and FinlandWest – Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and BelarusSouthwest – UkraineSouth – South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and KazakhstanSoutheast – China, Mongolia, Democratic People’s Republic of KoreaEast (marine) – USA and Japan
1st by total land area, 6th by GDP
1 According to the Federal State Statistics Service .
3
Longest Rivers2
Lena 4,337 kmYenisei (with Angara) 3,844 kmVolga 3,694 kmOb 3,676 kmAmur 2,824 km
Russia Is Surrounded by Arctic Ocean (Barents Sea, White Sea, Kara Sea, Laptev Sea, East Siberian Sea, Chukotka Sea) Pacific Ocean (Bering Sea, Okhotsk Sea, Sea of Japan) Atlantic Ocean (Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Azov Sea)
Largest Lakes3
Baikal 31.5 thousand km2
Ladoga 17.7 thousand km2
Onega 9.7 thousand km2
Highest ElevationElbrus 5,642 m
Largest Islands Archipelago Novaya Zemlya 82.6 thousand km2
Sakhalin 76.4 thousand km2
Archipelago Novosibirsky 38 thousand km2
Archipelago Severnaya Zemlya 37 thousand km2
Average TemperaturesJanuary from 0°,-5°C (Northern Caucasus) to -40°, -50°C (east of Saha (Yakutia) where the lowest temperatures can reach -65°, 70°C);July from 1°C (northern Siberian coast) to 24°, 25°C (Caspian lowlands)
The Russian Federation has the largest land area in the world; it is eighth by population globally4 and sixth by GDP denominated in USD at purchasing power parity5.
2 Data from statistical handbook of the Federal Agency for Water Recourses.3 According to the Federal Agency for Water Recourses.4 According to preliminary results of the 2010 AII – Russia population census5 According to the World Bank 2011.
4
CENTRAL FEDERAL AREA
NORTHWESTERN FEDERAL AREA
SOUTHERN FEDERAL AREA
NORTH CAUCASUS FEDERAL AREA
VOLGA FEDERAL AREA
MOSCOW URAL FEDERAL AREA
SIBERIAN FEDERAL AREA
FAR EAST FEDERAL AREA
Map of Russia
5
CENTRAL FEDERAL AREA
NORTHWESTERN FEDERAL AREA
SOUTHERN FEDERAL AREA
NORTH CAUCASUS FEDERAL AREA
VOLGA FEDERAL AREA
MOSCOW URAL FEDERAL AREA
SIBERIAN FEDERAL AREA
FAR EAST FEDERAL AREA
6
ExEcutivE Branch
Government• ExercisestheexecutivepowerinRussia• ConsistsofthePrimeMinister,DeputyPrimeMinistersandFederalMinisters
Prime Minister• AppointedbythePresidentwiththeconsentoftheStateDuma
Deputy Prime Ministers• Coordinateactivitiesofvarious federal executive power bodies, or all such bodies in a specific area (economy, social policy, etc.)• Somearesimultaneouslyheads of particular ministries• ProposedbythePrimeMinister and appointed by the President
President• ElectedforsixyearsbycitizensoftheRussianFederation• HeadoftheState;determinestheguidelinesofdomesticandforeignpolicies
Cabinet of Ministers• TheInterior• CivilDefence,Emergenciesand Disaster Relief• ForeignAffairs• Defence• Justice• HealthcareandSocial Development• Culture• EducationandScience• NaturalResourcesand Environmental Protection• IndustryandTrade• CommunicationsandMassMedia• RegionalDevelopment• Agriculture• Sport,TourismandYouthPolicy• Transport• Finance• EconomicDevelopment• Energy
adMinisTRaTive sTRucTuRe
rEgional govErnmEnt
• Eighty-threefederal subjects ruled by Governors who are proposed by the President and approved by regional parliaments
lEgislativE Branch
The Federal Assembly• Consistsoftwochambers–theFederationCouncilandtheState Duma• TheFederationCouncilincludestworepresentativesfromeach subject of the Russian Federation; one from the legislative and one from the executive body of state authority• TheStateDumaconsistsof450deputies(partiespresentinthecurrent Duma are United Russia, KPRF, LDPR, and A Just Russia), and shall be elected for a term of five years (next elections are on 4 December 2011)
Judicial Branch
• ConstitutionCourt(consistsoftwochambers,representedby10and9 judges, respectively; judges are selected by lot; main function is checking the laws for consistency with the Constitution)• TheSupremeCourtoftheRussianFederationisthesupremejudicial body for civil, criminal, administrative, and other cases under the jurisdiction of common courts, shall carry out judicial supervision over their activities, and provide explanations on the issues of court proceedings
7
8
ResT of WoRld coMpaRison Russia’s global ranking in production of select industrial and agricultural products
Source: US Geological Survey, 2010
GLOBAL LEADER IN METAL RESERVES
% of total global reserves
19%
25%
13%
6%
0Iron Ore PGM Gold Nickel Copper
1 2 3 3 9
18%
9%11%
9%
4%
COAL PRODUCTION – 2010
MM tons
3,000
4,000
2,000
1,000
0China USA India Australia Russia Indonesia RSA Germany Poland Algeria
Source: BP
3,240
985570 424 317 306 254 182 133 111
GAS PRODUCTION – 2010bcm
540
720
360
180
0USA Russia Canada Iran Qatar Norway China Saudi
ArabiaIndonesia Algeria
Source: BP
611 589
160 139 117 106 97 84 82 80
CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION – 2010mbpd
15
10
5
0Russia Saudi
ArabiaUSA Iran China Canada Mexico UAE Kuwait Venezuela
Source: BP
10.3 107.5
4.2 4.1 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.5
Russia’s Ranking
9
WHEAT – 2009
USD Bn
18
12
6
0China India USA Russia France Canada Pakistan Turkey Australia Germany
USD Bn
USD Bn
USD Bn
Source: FAO
16.312.1
8.4 7.54.6 4.2 3.5 2.9 2.7 2.3
SUGAR BEET – 2009
1.5
2.0
1.0
0.5
0France USA Germany Russia Turkey Poland UK Ukraine Nether-
landsBelgium
Source: FAO
1.51.2 1.1 1.0
0.70.5 0.4
0.3 0.2 0.2
MILK – 2009
2025
1510
50
USA India China Russia Germany Brazil France New Zealand
U.K. Poland
Source: FAO
22.8
11.79.5 7.8 7.4 7.3 6.4 4.0 3.6 3.2
POULTRY – 2008
Source: FAO
2025
1510
50
USA China Brazil Mexico Russia Iran Indonesia Argentina UK Japan
23.2
16.214.2
3.7 3.3 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0
1st by crude oil production, gas and iron ore reserves
10
Key MacRoeconoMic indicaToRs In 2011, the Ministry of Economic Development forecasts growth of GDP at 4.2%, inflation below the level of 7%, and the Ministry of Finance forecasts that the fiscal surplus will be 0.5% of GDP
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Production Indicators
GDP change (%), year-on-year 8.2 8.5 5.2 -7.8 4.0
Industrial output, change (%), year-on-year 6.3 6.8 0.6 -9.3 8.2
Manufacturing, change (%), year-on-year 8.4 10.5 0.5 -15.2 11.8
Extraction of mineral resources, change (%), year-on-year 2.8 3.3 0.4 -0.6 3.6
Fixed capital investment, change (%), year-on-year 16.7 22.7 9.9 -16.2 6.0
Fiscal and Monetary Indicators
Deficit (surplus) of the federal budget, (% of GDP) 7.4 5.4 4.1 -6.0 -4.0
M2, change (%), end year/end year 48.7 43.5 0.8 17.7 31.1
Inflation (CPI), change (%), at year-end 9.0 11.9 13.3 8.8 8.8
GDP deflator 15.1 13.9 18.0 1.9 11.4
Producer price index (PPI), (%), at year-end 10.4 25.1 -7.0 13.9 16.7
Nominal exchange rate, average, RUB/USD 27.19 25.58 24.85 31.75 30.37
Real effective exchange rate, change (%), year-on-year (IMF) 9.4 4.2 5.1 -5.6 9.6
Reserve Fund, USD Bn, at the end of period 137.1 60.5 25.4
National Wealth Fund, USD Bn, at the end of the period 88.0 91.6 88.4
Reserves (including gold), USD Bn, at the end of the period 303.7 478.8 426.3 439.5 479.4
Source: Federal State Statistics Service, Central Bank of RF, EEG, EIU, IMF, company estimates
11
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Balance of Payment Indicators
Trade balance, USD Bn 139.3 130.9 179.7 111.6 151.7
Share of energy resources in export of goods, % 63.2 62.1 66.4 63.5 64.5
Current account, USD Bn 94.7 77.8 103.5 48.6 70.3
Export of goods, USD Bn 303.6 354.4 471.6 303.4 400.4
Import of goods, USD Bn 164.3 223.5 291.9 191.8 248.7
Gross foreign direct investments, USD Bn 29.7 55.1 75.0 36.5 42.9
Average export price of Russian crude oil, USD/bbl 61.1 69.3 94.4 61.1 78.2
Financial Markets Indicators
Weighted average corporate loan rate, % 10.4 10.0 12.2 15.3 9.1
CBR refinancing rate, %, at the end of period 11.0 10.0 13.0 8.75 7.75
Real average rate on RUB loans, % (deflated py PPI) 1.6 0.9 -1.7 3.2 -6.5
Stock market index (RTS, in RUR, at the end of period) 1.922 2.291 632 1,445 1,770
Corporate Financial Condition
Share of loss-making companies 29.7 23.4 25.2 30.1 27.8
Share of loans in capital investments 14.3 15.5 17.6 20.1 14.3
Profitability (net profit/paid sales), % 25.6 36.8 21.5 28.7 32.7
Income, Poverty, and Labour Market
Real disposable income, change (%), year-on-year 13.5 12.1 2.3 2.0 4.2
Average wages in USD 390.9 532.2 695.8 587.0 689.9
Unemployment (%, according to ILO definition) 7.2 6.1 6.3 8.4 7.5
Source: Federal State Statistics Service, Central Bank of RF, EEG, EIU, IMF, company estimates
12
expoRTs
Other 21%
Crude Oil 34%
Petroleum Products 18%Natural Gas 12%
Fertilizers 2%
Metals 9%
Machinery,Equipment, & Transport 5%
Source: Federal Customs Service
Source: CBR
GOODS EXPORT STRUCTURE $398B USD volume in 2010
EXPORTS OF SERVICES BY DIRECTION OF TRADE$45B USD volume in 2010
UK 9%
USA 9%
Germany 7%
Ukraine 5%
Cyprus 5%
Switzerland 4%Kazakhstan 3%
Other 58%
13
iMpoRTs
Metals and Steel 5%
Other 37%
Clothing and Footwear 4%
Medicines 4%Food includingBeverages 7%
Machinery,Equipment & Transport 43%
GOODS IMPORT STRUCTURE
Source: Federal Customs Service
Source: CBR
IMPORTS OF SERVICES BY ORIGIN OF TRADE$74B USD volume in 2010
$230B USD volume in 2010
Turkey 7%
Germany 6%
U.K. 6%
USA 5%
Ukraine 5%
Cyprus 5%
Egypt 4%
Other 62%
14
eMployMenT and educaTion Distribution of Employed Population by Age and Education in 20106 (percentage of total)
6 According to a random poll of population on employment issues.7 Including post-university education.
2008 2009 2010
Employed – total 100 100 100
Including people aged, years:
Less than 20 1.1 1.4 0.8
20 - 24 9.6 10.5 8.7
25 - 29 13.6 14.5 12.7
30 - 34 12.7 13.0 12.4
35 - 39 12.2 12.0 12.3
40 - 44 11.7 11.2 12.2
45 - 49 14.3 13.3 15.3
50 - 54 12.8 11.8 14.0
55 - 59 8.1 8.4 7.7
60 - 72 3.8 3.8 3.8
Average age of employed population, years 40.0 39.5 40.5
Employed – total 100 100 100
Including those with:
Higherprofessionaleducation7 28.9 25.6 32.2
Secondary professional education 27.1 22.1 32.3
Primary professional education 19.7 24.5 14.7
Secondary education 20.0 22.5 17.4
Primary education 4.0 4.9 3.2
No education 0.3 0.4 0.3
Source: Federal State Statistics Service
15
econoMically acTive populaTionAs percent of total8
8 According to the data obtained from a random poll of population on employment issues: 1992, 1995, 2010 – as of the end of October; 2000-2009 – as of the end of November. Starting from 2006 data includes Chechen Republic.
1992 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Economically Active Population – total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Including:
Employed 94.8 90.5 89.4 92.8 92.8 93.9 93.7 91.6 92.5
Unemployed 5.2 9.5 10.6 7.2 7.2 6.1 6.3 8.4 7.5
Men 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Including:
Employed 94.8 90.3 89.2 93.2 92.6 93.6 93.4 91.0 92.0
Unemployed 5.2 9.7 10.7 6.8 7.4 6.4 6.6 9.0 8.0
Women 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Including:
Employed 94.8 90.8 89.6 93.0 93.2 94.2 93.9 92.2 93.0
Unemployed 5.2 9.2 10.4 7.0 6.8 5.8 6.1 7.8 7.0
Source: Federal State Statistics Service
16
euRasian cusToMs union – a laRGe addRessable MaRKeT
POPULATION
MM
USD Bn
200
150
100
50
0Russia Kazakhstan Belarus Total
Source: Global Insight, Federal State Statistics Service
142167
16 10
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0Russia Kazakhstan Belarus Total
Source: Global Insight
1,479
1,681
14755
NOMINAL GDP
USD Bn
800
600
400
200
0Russia Kazakhstan Belarus Total
Source: Planet Retail
527 582
34 22
RETAIL MARKET
17
huMan capiTal• Highlyeducatedlabourforce.• OneofthesevenleadingcountriesbythenumberofNobelPrizewinners, most prizes awarded for achievements in the field of physics.• Highlevelofbasiceducation.• Significantscientificresearchandtechnicalresourcesbase.• Substantialhumancapitalsupportingfavourableopportunitiesfor innovative growth.
USD Bn
120%
90%
60%
30%
0Russia
Primary
China Brazil India
Source: Report of UNESCO, 2006, OECD, 2009 data for Brazil and Russia
92%88%
54%
91%
52%
15%
94%
41%
11%
96%
78%
5%
LEVEL OF EDUCATION — BRIC COUNTRIES
%
120%
90%
60%
30%
0Russia China Brazil India
Source: Euromonitor, 2010
99.6%
68.5%
94.3% 92.7%
LITERACY RATE (% OF POPULATION AGED 15+) — BRIC COUNTRIES
Secondary Higher
Highest level of educated population among BRIC countries
18
infRasTRucTuRe invesTMenT
USD Bn
120
90
60
30
0
8
6
4
2
01995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Infrastructure Investment
Source: Federal State Statistics Service
INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT
% of GDP
%
Completed
Project Name Sector Project Budget, USD Bn
Short Description
Nord Stream O&G midstream
10.0 Two line 1224 km 55 bcma pipelines from Russia (Vyborg) to Germany (Greifswald)
Sakhalin-Khabarovsk-Vladivostok pipeline
O&G midstream
10.0 Construction of 1800 km Sakhalin - Khabarovsk - Vladivostok gas transmission system
BPS-2 O&G midstream
3.3 Construction of 1000 km pipeline from Unechka on Belarus border to Ust Luga port near St. Petersburg
Source: Broker reports
19
• RussianinfrastructureinvestmentasapercentageofGDPbyoverthree percentage points of GDP over the last decade, and by ten times in terms of US dollars, and amounted to 7.4% of GDP ($111B USD) in 2010.
• RussianinfrastructureprojectsincludeinvestmentrelatedtotheSochi Winter Olympic Games in 2014 and the APEC summit in Vladivostok in 2012, which are intended to modernise the infrastructure of an entire region.
• TheRussiangovernmentseekstoincreasetheroleoftheprivatesectorin building, operating and financing infrastructure projects.
In Progress
Project Name Sector Project Budget, USD Bn
Short Description
Bovanenko O&G E&P 15.0 Construction of 572 km railway Obskaya-Bovanenko and 2400 km gas pipeline Bovanenko-Ukhta, Uhkta-Torzhok
Moscow-St Petersburg toll road
Roads 18.9 626 km 4-8 lane Moscow-St Petersburg highway, of which the first 43 Petersburg toll road West km has been contracted
Ust-Luga port Water transport
5.0 Harbourdeepening,construction of quays, rail connections and road connection from Novgorod
Source: Broker reports
21
21
invesTMenT pRioRiTiesDIvERSIFICAtIoN oF ECoNoMy – DEvELoPMENt PRIoRIty• ShareofmineralresourcessectorinGDPandinexportisstillfairlyhigh; however, specific measures are being taken in order to diversify the Russian economy; this should have a positive effect on Russia’s global competitiveness
KEy AREAS oF DIvERSIFICAtIoN IDENtIFIED By thE RUSSIAN PRESIDENt: • Energyefficiency• Nucleartechnologies• ITandsoftware• Spacetechnologiesandtelecommunications• Medicaltechnologiesandpharmaceuticals
Other 16%
Utilities 1.6%
National security,insurance 6.2%
Transport &communications 9.7%
Natural resources 10.4%
Real estate 11.4%
Retail & wholesaletrade 18.2%
Manufacturing16.4%
2010 GDP BREAKDOWN
Source: Federal State Statistics Service
Financial services 4.4%
Construction 5.7%
The goal is to modernise and to diversify the economy
22
pRioRiTies in ModeRnisaTion of Russia’s econoMyEnErgy EfficiEncyMain Objectives• ReduceRussia’senergyintensitytoGDPratioby40%throughenergy savings, improving energy efficiency, and eliminating regulatory gaps by 2020
Northern Countries
1.50
1.00
.50
0.00Germany Japan Finland US Brazil Canada India China RussiaSaudi
Arabia
Source: Rosstat, MED, BP Statistical Review of World Energy
0.19 0.190.23
0.32
0.400.48
0.75
0.86
1.14
1.39
ENERGY INTENSITY OF GDP IN 2007
9 In 2005 prices.
23
spacE tEchnologiEs and tElEcommunicationsMain Objectives• Increasetheefficiencyandqualityofinformationservices• Developamoderninformationinfrastructureinallsectorsofthenational economy
2009
NUMBER OF LIFT-OFFS – 2010
40
20
0Russia USA China Europe India Japan South
KoreaIsrael
2008
31
1615
6 3 2 1 1
50
25
0Russia USA China JapanEurope
3225
73
India
26
NorthKorea
1Sea Launch
Project
1Iran
1SouthKorea
1
40
20
0Russia USA China Europe Sea Launch
ProjectIndia Japan Iran
27
1511
6 5 3 1 1
Russia plays a leading role in space exploration
24
mEdical tEchnologiEs and pharmacEuticalsMain Objectives• ProductionofmostmedicinesandmedicalequipmentinRussia• Developmentandproductionofinnovativemedicalproducts; expansion of Russian manufacturers into new markets
While Russia’s healthcare spending is still low, funding has been increasing at a fast pace.
USD
TOTAL HC SPEND PER CAPITA – 2008
US
France
Germany
UK
Italy
Spain
Lithuania
Brazil
Russia
Turkey
Kazakhstan
Ukraine
China
India
Ukraine
Russia
Kazakhstan
Lithuania
China
Spain
Brazil
Turkey
Italy
France
UK
India
Germany
US
%
TOTAL HC SPEND PER CAPITA, GROWTH10 – CAGR 2000-08
Source WHO, McKinsey
0 2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 0 8 15 23 30
7,536
5,122
4,628
3,924
3,533
3,087
881
620
509
313
267
142
43
722
28
26
26
19
16
15
13
11
11
10
10
9
6
13
One of the fastest growing health markets
10 Without inflation and exchange rate effects.
25
information tEchnologiEs and softwarEMain Objectives• Develophigh-performance,application-orientedcomputingsystems• Improvetheefficiencyandqualityofinformationservices• Developmodern,social,andindustrialinformationinfrastructure
By international standards, current Russian IT spending is low, but growing fast.
IT SPENDUSD Bn, 2010-15
IT SPEND% OF GDP, 2010
Hardware Software
World Market Growth in 2010-15: 6%
CAGR%
Services
51UKUS
FinlandJapan
SwedenDenmarkGermany
France
Russia
34
17
02010 2012 2015
1944
11
55
16
99
26
43
25
19.018.1
17.4
18% p.a.
0 2 4 6 8
Source: Gartner, Global Insight, IDC
7.65.9
5.04.8
4.23.83.83.6
1.7
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS WITH INTERNET BROADBAND ACCESS PER 100 HOUSEHOLDS
30
20 2008 2011
Source: MED
50
40
26
nuclEar tEchnologiEsMain Objectives• Ensureoverallandconsistentdevelopmentofthenationalnuclearpower potential• Guaranteelong-termsupplyofcheapenergy• MaintainRussia’sleadershipontheglobalnuclearmarket• Substantiallyreduceuraniumconsumption• Mitigateenvironmentalimpactandnuclearproliferationrisk
The Safest Nuclear Technology
1 A four-physical barrier defense-in-depth system that prevents the potential release of radioactive emissions outside the power unit.
Containment is a double leak- proof envelope that protects the reactor from outside impacts, both natural and technogenic.
2
3 A safer two-loop steam cycle of the reactor that precludes the potential release of radioactive substance outside of the reactor hall.
There are passive and active (power supply-dependent) safety systems in place at all the reactors, which, in combination, ensure the highest level of safety in all contingencies.
4
27
incenTives foR invesTMenT pRojecTs (in 2011)EncouragE rEgional authoritiEs to improvE thE invEstmEnt climatEA mechanism of grant distribution to the regions achieving the best results in business development and attracting investment has been developed.• Thegovernmentintendstoawardgrantsto20regionsthathave achieved the best results in terms of the efficiency of investment policies and ongoing growth of investment projects• Theplannedvolumeofgrantsin2012–10billionrubles
stratEgic initiativE agEncy (sia)Establishment of Strategic Initiative Agency to promotenew projects. • ThepurposeoftheSIAistoselectthebestideasand help with their implementation • Currently,theagencyhasformedapreliminaryportfolio of investment projectsThere are currently about 2000 selected projects.
russian fund of dirEct invEstmEnts (rfdi)RFDI aims to provide long-term (5-7 years) financing to Russian investment projects, and attract foreign investors to co-invest in these projects.• Thetargetsizeofthefundis$10BUSD,tobe funded from oil revenues; in 2011 $2B USD were allocated from Russia’s oil funds• ThevolumeofRFDIinvestmentperprojectwillamountto at least 50 and not more than $500M USD
Andrei Nikitin(31 years old)Gen. Director
Kirill Dmitriev (36 years old)Director of RFDI
28
inWaRds fdi sTRucTuRe
BY COUNTRY OF ORIGIN
Source: CBR
BY SECTOR
Source: CBR
Luxembourg 7%France 6%
Mining 16%
Manufacturing41%
Real Estate 16%
Trade 9%
Financial Activity 5%
Other 9%
Transport 4%
Rest of World 38%
Cyprus 29%
Netherlands 8%
Germany 7%Ireland 5%
29
BY COUNTRY OF ORIGIN
Source CBR
BY SECTOR
Source CBR
Rest of World 33%
Cyprus 34%
Netherlands 14%
Luxembourg 6%
British Virgin Islands 4%
Belize 5%
Germany 4%
Trade 40%
Manufacturing 29%
Mining 6%
Transport 15%
Real Estate 5%
Other 1%Financial Activity 4%
ouTWaRds fdi sTRucTuRe
30
capiTal infloW inTo Russia
No REStRICtIoNS oN FREE MovEMENt oF CAPItAL IN RUSSIA• Theonlylimitationisinvestmentinstrategiccompanieswhich have special importance for national security and economic stability• Incomparison,therearerestrictionsondirectforeign investments in China and India, and Brazil is planning to limit the free movement of capital
UNLIKE ChINA AND INDIA, IN RUSSIA thERE ARE No FoREIGN CURRENCy LIMItAtIoNS• ThereisaregimeofamanagedfloatingRURexchangerate, with the rate largely determined by the market and the CBR only intervening to reduce volatility • Incomparison,thereareforeigncurrencylimitationsinChina and India
FoREIGN DIRECt INvEStMENtS ovER thE LASt 10 yEARS AMoUNtED to $282B USD
• $42.9BUSDin2010
CUMULATIVE STOCK OF INWARD FDIUSD Bn
240
320
160
80
02001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 9M2011
Source: Central Bank of Russian Federation
63 14 30 43 72127
202239
282313
Virtually no restrictions on free movement of capital
31
Virtually no restrictions on free movement of capital
Top inbound M&a deals
TOP RUSSIAN INBOUND M&A DEALS2001 – 2011 YTD
Date % AcquiredValue, USD BnAcquirorTarget
Feb-03
Apr-07
Jun-09
Dec-10
Mar-11
7.6
5.8
4.0
4.6
4.0
100.0
20.0
25.0
66.0
12.1
Source: Thomson Reuters
(Severneftegazprom)
32
RecenT iposDate Value, USD MMIssuer
May-11
Feb-11
Nov-10
1,435
360
388
Apr-11
Nov-10
Oct-10
782
400
241
July-11
Apr-11
Nov-10
565
575
1,003
June-11
Apr-11
Nov-10
588
375
428
Source: Dealogic
33
case sTudy – phaRMaceuTical indusTRy
COMPANIES GROWTH IN RUSSIA
USD MM
2005 2009 % CAGR
% SHARE OF GOV’TSALES 2009
2
3
1
4
5
12
25
40
26
33
Source: 2010 IMS
318
372
116
170
136
783 36
32
87
28
3
585
445
427
418
Novartis11
Sanofi
J&J
Bayer
Pharmstandard
Mainly Rx Mainly BGx Mix of Rx and Branded Gx
11 Including RX, OTC, and Sandoz
34
banKinG sysTeM • Asof1January2011totalassetsoftheRussianbankingsystem amounted to approximately $1,107B USD• RelativelylowdepositactivityinretailbankingamongBRICcountries – 12% in Russia vs. 30% in China
%
%
#
SHARE OF STATE BANKING ASSETS
75
100
50
25
0China India Russia
80 75
40
SHARE OF OWN FUNDS IN BANKING SYSTEM
RELATIVELY LOW COMPETITION — AVERAGE NUMBER OF BRANCHES OF ONE BANK
15
20
10
5
0Russia IndiaBrazil ChinaEurope
15 15
6 64
150
200
100
50
0India Brazil Russia
163
75
3
• Onehundred-oneRussianbanksarecontrolledbynon-residententities, representing around 19% of all banking assets• InRussiathereareover800mediumandsmallregionalbanks,representing around 5.4% of all assets
• Thescopeofanti-crisismeasurestakenbytheBankofRussiain2008-2009 has been estimated at 14% of total banking assets
%
%
#
SHARE OF STATE BANKING ASSETS
75
100
50
25
0China India Russia
80 75
40
SHARE OF OWN FUNDS IN BANKING SYSTEM
RELATIVELY LOW COMPETITION — AVERAGE NUMBER OF BRANCHES OF ONE BANK
15
20
10
5
0Russia IndiaBrazil ChinaEurope
15 15
6 64
150
200
100
50
0India Brazil Russia
163
75
3
The highest share of own funds in the banking system among BRIC countries
35
12TheHeritageFoundation–indexofeconomicfreedomfor2010.
Taxes in Russia vs. oTheR bRic counTRies
RUSSIA hAS thE MoSt LIBERAL AND FAvoRABLE tAx REGIME AMoNG ALL othER BRIC CoUNtRIES• Lowestcorporateincometax–20%• Personalincometaxof13%,regardlessofincomesize• Opportunitytohaveaone-timewrite-offof30%ofdepreciation costs for tax purposes • FromJanuary2011–zeroprofittaxforeducationalandhealthcare institutions • From2011therewillbenocapitalgaintaxincaseoflong-term direct investments • Cutinsocialcontributions(payrolltax)from34%to30%from 1 January 2012
Country Corporate Income tax
Personal Income tax
vAt
China 25% 5-45% 23%
Brazil 34% 7.5-27.5% 17-25%
India 30-40% 10-30% 12.5%
Russia 20% 13% 18%
taxes in Different Countries in 2010, as % of GDP12
Belarus 30.4% Italy 43.1%
Brazil 34.4% Japan 28.3%
Canada 32.2% Kazakhstan 27.7%
China 18.0% South Korea 26.6%
France 44.6% Great Britain 38.9%
Germany 40.6% USA 26.9%
India 18.6% Russia 34.1%
Low corporate and personal taxes
36
pRivaTisaTion plansThe following privatization programme has been developed for 2011-2015:
Company Company Name Stake/CommentsGovernment Stake
United Grain Company 100% By 2012-2013:
100% of shares
Source: MED
VTB 75.5% In 2012-2013: 25.5%-1 share
Sovcomflot
In 2012-2013: 50%-1 share with the possibility of reducing the RF interest in 2014-2015 below controlling stake
100%
RusHydro 57.97%Reducing governmentinterest to full exit by 2017
FGC UES 79.11% During 2012-2013: 4.11%-1 share
SberbankDuring 2012-2013: 7.58%-1 share owned by the Bank of Russia
57.58%
RosAgroLeasing 99.9%
During 2013-2015, with RF retaining the controlling stake (50%+1 share)
Rosneft 75.1% By 2015: 25%-1 share
Rosselkhozbank 100% By 2015: 25% of shares
RZD Starting in 2013 up to 25%-1 share
100%
37
In 2011, the government reviewed the privatisation programme and expanded it, adding a further 10 companies to be privatized in whole or part by 2017.
Company Company Name Stake/CommentsGovernment Stake
Source: MED
50.9%Alrosa By 2017: 50.9% of shares
Sheremetyevo Airport
By 2017: 100% of shares100%
Inter RAO 14.8% The Russian Governmentmakes full exit from thecharter capital
Zarubezhneft 100% By 2017: 100% of shares
Rusnano During 2012-2013: 10%100%
United ShipbuildingCorporation
100%By 2017, with RF retaining the controlling stake
United AircraftCorporation
82.95%By 2017, with RF retaining the controlling stake
UralVagonZavod 100% By 2017, with RF retaining 75%+1 share
Transneft By 2017: 3.1%-1 share78.1%
Aeroflot 51.17% By 2017: 51.17% of shares
Moreover, the Government endorsed the initiative to increase shareholdings in joint-stock companies that had been targeted for privatisation. The initiative provides for full Government exit from Rosneft, Rushydro, FSK UES, Sovkomflot, VTB Bank, Rusagroleasing and Rosselkhozbank.
modernrussia.com/factsandfigures
Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation