Russian Disinformation Campaigns re Biological Weapons in ... · nuclear weapons, the proliferation...

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Russian Disinformation Campaigns re Biological Weapons in the Putin Era Presentation to the NDU/CNS Tucker CBW Symposium, 2019 Milton Leitenberg University of Maryland School of Public Policy December 11, 2019

Transcript of Russian Disinformation Campaigns re Biological Weapons in ... · nuclear weapons, the proliferation...

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RussianDisinformationCampaignsreBiologicalWeaponsinthePutinEra

PresentationtotheNDU/CNSTuckerCBWSymposium,2019

MiltonLeitenbergUniversityofMarylandSchoolofPublicPolicyDecember11,2019

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Contents1. TheSovietperiod2. ThePost-1992years,particularlyafter20003. Particulars,Details4. Whatdoesitmean?• WhoBelievesIt?Doanygovernments believeit,reeffectontheBWC?• WhyDoestheRussianGovernmentDoIt?• Significance:ImplicationsretheinterestsoftheRussiangovernment/PutinAdministration

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RussiaandFalseBiologicalWeaponAllegationsAbstractStartingonlyafewyearsaftertheendofWorldWarII,in1949,andlastinguntil1988underGeneralSecretaryMikhailGorbachev,theUSSRmaintainedanearcontinuouscampaignoffalseallegationsofbiologicalweaponusebytheUnitedStates.NeverinhistoryhadanyothercountrycarriedonsuchacampaignoffalseBWallegations.Someindividual“sub-campaigns”lastedwelloveradecade.Attimes,SovietalliesinEasternEuropeorCubaassistedbyintroducingtheirownfalseBWallegations,withCubaaloneaccountingforabout20suchinstances.Afterapauseofafewyearsbetween1988and1995,seniorRussianmilitaryofficialsbeganrepeatingtheoldfalseallegations.RussianofficialsamplifiedthecampaignaftertheUSgovernmentfundedthetransformationofformerSovietBWfacilitiesinCommonwealthofIndependentStates(CIS)undertheNunn-Lugarprogram.TheRussiandisinformationcampaignblossomedintoacontinuouspropagandacampaigntowhichwasaddeddenialoftheSyriangovernment’suseofchemicalweaponsforsixyearsandRussia’sownuseofanadvancedorganophosphatecompoundinanassassinationattemptagainstaretiredKGBagentlivingintheUKin2018.

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TheSignificanceofFalseBWAllegations

Whyyoudon’twantthem,whytheyshouldnotbetrivialized.

“TheMeselsondictum,”~1968-69• TheworstthingisatrueallegationofBWuse.• Thenextworstthingisafalseallegation.• Itsuggeststhatacountryhasbiologicalweapons.• ThatitisusingBW,and gettingawaywithit.• AndthatBWisdesirable,hasitsuses.

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TheSovietYears- 1DetailedchapterinTheSovietBiologicalWeaponProgram:AHistory,2012,Chapter14,pp.407-422.

• ThetotalnumberofSovietallegationsofUSBWuse:~20• Duration:1949-1988.Ten“sub-campaigns”.• Cubaadded18distinctallegations;arethese“independent”orwastheSovietKGBinvolved?• Historicallyunprecedented:noothercountry/countrieshaveeverdonethis.

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TheSovietYears- 2ThetwomostimportantSovietBWdisinformationcampaigns:• AllegationsofUSuseofBWduringtheKoreanWar:

§ USSR,China,DPRK:enormousinternationalpropagandacampaign,1951-53,includinginWesternEurope.

§ USSRendschargesonStalin’sdeathin1953.§ ChinaandDPRKcontinuetothepresentday.§ 1953SovietCentralCommitteedocumentsobtainedin1998.

• “ForMaoZedong:TheSovietGovernmentandtheCentralCommitteeoftheCPSUweremisled.ThespreadinthepressofinformationabouttheusebytheAmericansofbacteriologicalweaponsinKoreawasbasedonfalseinformation.TheaccusationsagainsttheAmericanswerefictitious.”2May1953,ResolutionofthePresidiumoftheCouncilofMinistersoftheUSSR.https://cissm.umd.edu/research-impact/publications/new-russian-evidence-korean-war-biological-warfare-allegations

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https://cissm.umd.edu/sites/default/files/2019-07/CWIHP_WP_78_China_False_BW_Allegations_Korean_War_%28March_16%29.pdf

2016• Intercession~2005withChineseMinistryForeignAffairsdeputyforarmscontrol

• PLAAcademyofMilitaryScienceHistoryjournal,2008and2010,discussML1998publication.Generous,butstilldeny.

• 2014,ChinesejournalpublishesdeathbedmemoirbySurgeonGeneralofthePLAduringtheKoreanWar,plusdeputychiefofstaffofarmyduringtheKoreanWar.

• Chinesegovernmentclosesjournalin2015.

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NooseoftruthistighteningaroundMiltonLeitenberg&Co.’scollectiveneck.ChinaRisingRadioSinoland 180310

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TheSovietYears- 3ThesecondmostimportantallegationwasthattheUSproducedandreleasedtheAIDSvirusinordertokillAfricans;onlyendedin1987-88.LargepercentageofUSAfricanAmericanpopulationbelieveit.

TwootherimportantSovietdisinformationcampaigns:• India:MalariaControlResearchUnit,NewDelhi(Malaria)

§ 1972-1975effort§WHOoperatedthefacility,supportedbyUSAID(oneof6globally)

• Pakistan:MedicalStudiesCentre,Lahore§ early1970sto1988,18years§ alsoMalaria

BothSovieteffortssucceeded:PakistanandIndiabothclosedthesites.

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BeginsagaininSpring1995

• SeniorMODBWandCWGeneralsfromthepre-1992years:Yevstignaev (15th Directorate),Petrov(CBWtroops)joinin1998-2001.

• Simplyrepeatedalltheoldpre-1992allegations,KoreanWar,potatobeetles,AIDS,Cubanallegations.

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ThePutinEra• Thenumbersynopsized,~20:Howevertheseareonlyasmall fraction(andincludes3-4debunkingpostings).§Beginsin2006.§ThefirstisZyganov,in2006,saysthattheUSwasresponsiblefordisseminating“birdflu”.

§Thenapressitemin2009,USresponsibleforswineflu.§The“takeoff”in2013,byOnischenko,USdidZikavirus,etc

§By2013,thefocusbecomestheNunn-LugarfacilityinTbilisi,Georgia.Theheaviestyearappearstohavebeen2018.

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Kremlinproxymediasites,“newsagencies”,blogsthatdistributedtheBWdisinformationGlobalResearch RussiaInsight USAReally

RussiaInsider RussiaFront AfricaDailyVoice

VeteransToday NewsFront AfriquePanorama

RT SouthFront InternetResearchAgency[IRA]

Sputnik EastFront NewEasternOutlook

SputnikInternational Nevsky News ProjectLakhta

MediaSniper EconomyToday StrategicCultureFoundation(runsVeteransToday)

RussiaObserver FederalNewsAgency[FAN](runsUSAReally)

GEORGIANPROXIES

Alia

Euronews

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TheAnti-GeorgianNunn-Lugarcampaign- 1• ThisisALL KGB/FSBwork.• Useofdregsandlackies:

§ JeffreySilverman,USresidentinTbilisisince2001§ Dilyana Gaytandzhieva,Bulgarianjournalist§ IgorGiorgadzeand“fake”USpatentsallegingconnectionstotheNunn-Lugarlab,formerGeorgianInteriorMinisterandallegedcoup/assassinationplotter,residentinMoscow

• Russian“FifthColumn”inGeorgia,openandveryextensive:newspapers,TVstations,blogs,majorpoliticalfiguresinexileinMoscowandinTbilisi(formerinterimPrimeMinister),pro-Russianpoliticalparties.

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Theanti-GeorgianNunn-LugarCampaign- 2InMoscow• Gennadi Onischenko,Yeltsin-Putinyears,SanitaryInspectorGeneralofRussia,notorious“BWhounddog”purveyorofconspiracytheories•MembersoftheDuma• ThenseniorMOD/MFAofficials•MajorGeneralIgorKirilov,Commander,RussianArmedForcesRadiologial,ChemicalandBiologicalDefense Troops• VladimirYermakov,MinistryofForeignAffairs,Director,DepartmentofProliferationandArmsControl• EvenPutinchimedinontheGiorgadzematerials.

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Theanti-GeorgianNunn-LugarCampaign- 3

• In2013Dr. Gamkrelidze,then-DirectoroftheNunn-Lugarfacility,offeredanofficialinvitationtoRussiangovernmentofficials,includingDr. Onishchenko,tovisitthefacility.• TherewasneveranyreplyfromanyRussianofficial.• FiveyearslaterwhenadelegationofStatesPartytotheBWTCmadeanofficialvisittothefacilityonNovember14-15,2018,theRussiangovernmentrefusedtoparticipate.TheForeignMinistryspokeswomanMariaZakharova,said:“Wearenotinterestedinvisiting,likeamuseumexcursion.”

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Extractfrom TheStrategyofNationalSecurityoftheRussianFederation (notdisinformation)“Theriskofanincreaseinthenumberofcountriespossessingnuclearweapons,theproliferationanduseofchemicalweapons,aswellasuncertaintyaboutthepossessionofbiologicalweaponsbyforeignstatesandtheirpotentialfortheirdevelopmentandproduction,remain.ThenetworkofUSmilitarybiologicallaboratoriesisexpandingintheterritoriesofstatesneighboringRussia.”

ApprovedbytheOrderofthePresidentofRussianFederation#683, 31December,2015

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ExampleofRussianmediadisinformationprocessduringathree-weekperiod,September2018

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Additionalexampleofshortperiodofmultimediadisinformationdistribution,September2018

BothimageswereproducedbytheMYTHDETECTORLAB,inTbilisi,Georgia,supportedbyUSAID.

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WhatistheNunn-LugarfacilityinTbilisi,Georgia?• ItisGeorgia’s“CDC”,RichardLugarCenter forPublicHealthResearch,NationalCenter forDiseaseControl&PublicHealth.• TheUSbuiltit,atacostof$320million• ABL-3facility,openedin2013,replacedanolderSovietculturecollectionandresearchfacilityinthecenter ofTbilisi,moved17milesfromthecitycenter.• USDODscientistsfromWRAIRdoworkinit;inadditiontheUSwanteditsculturecollectionandcontributednewcultures.• OpentoEuropeanandotherscientiststoworkin.

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TheRussiandisinformationliesretheGeorgianNunn-Lugarfacility• ThefacilityspreadZika,swineflu,measles,CCHF,hepatitis,pathogen-carryingmosquitostrains,etcetc etc.• OnlyUSDODscientistsworkintheBL-3portion.• USscientistsdosecretwork,notaccessibletoGeorgianadministrators.• USstillfundsit.• USrunsit.• USdoingBWinit,andintheotherNunn-Lugarfacilities.• TheBulgarianjournalist’s“Meisterwerk”:49pageslong,andcertainlynotherownproduct,includingdozens ofolddeclassifiedUSdocumentstakenfromDODreportsoftheUSoffensiveBWprogramfrom1951onward,displayingthesameagents,UStesting,etcandrelatingthosetothecurrentworkattheNunn-Lugarfacility.

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AndtheBigSurprise• Therehavebeenabout18visitorsfromRussiaintheLugarCenter since2016.Amongthem,2wereworkinginthelaboratory(WHOtraining),3werevisitingforlaboratoryequipmentinstallation,andotherswerethereforintroductoryvisits.AtleasthalfofthevisitorswereRussiangovernmentscientists.• RussianTVandjournalistshavevisitedalso,buttheirTVstationsdidn’tairthevideosafterwardsandthejournalistsneverpublishstoriesabouttheirvisitandwhattheysaw.• TheRussiangovernmentunderstandswithabsolutecertaintywhatistakingplaceinsidetheGeorgianfacility.• PlusinternationalvisitreportstotheBWCStatesParty,12-2018.

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PresentedtotheBWCStatesParty,December4-7,2018byGeorgia,Germanyandnineothergovernments

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PresentedtotheBWCStatesParty,December4-7,2018byGeorgiaalone

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RussiangovernmentresponsetoBWCsubmissionsrevisittoGeorgianfacility"InGeneva,RussiacirculatedareplymemoonOctober10toBWCstatespartymissions,claimingtheGeorgiansidewasattemptingtocreate“adistortedimage”oftheLugarCenter.ItnotedthatthelabwasbuiltbythePentagon,thattheUnitedStatescoversthelaboratory’soperatingcostsincludingitssecurity,andthatAmericansfinancedual-useresearchconductedthere.Somewhatironically,consideringthevast,ostensiblycivilian,networkofpublichealthlaboratoriesthatconcealedtheSovietoffensivebiologicalweaponsprogram,thememogoesontoclaimthat,“inordertoconcealthetruecharacterandmissionofthisfacilityithasbeenformallyincorporatedintoGeorgia’spublichealthsystem.” Georgia’sgoalininvitingBWCstatestovisit,theRussianmemoclaims,is“tocreateanillusionoflegitimacyandtransparency,”andRussiadoes“notseeanyvalueinparticipatinginsuchapoliticallybiasedevent.”

"TheRussiandisinformationattackthatposesabiologicaldanger",By Filippa Lentzos, BULLETINOFTHEATOMICSCIENTISTS,November19,2018https://thebulletin.org/2018/11/the-russian-disinformation-attack-that-poses-a-biological-danger/

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Context:SelectedRussianactivitiesinthesametimeperiod- 1• OnAugust11,2010,MedvedevannouncesthatRussiawillwithdrawfromtheISTCin2015.TheinitiatorofthismovewasundoubtedlyPutin,statesthattheUSwasusingtheNunn-LugarprogramtostealRussiansecrets,technology.• InFebruaryandMarch2012,Putindecreesthatinorder“toprepareforthreatsofthefuture”theMODwastodevelop“weaponsbasedonnewphysicalprinciples:radiation,geophysical,wave,genetic,psychophysical,etc.”• Noguiseof“defensive”program;presentedonRussianTVandpublishedintheRussianpress

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Context:SelectedRussianactivitiesinthesametimeperiod- 2• PoisoningofUkrainianPrimeMinisterVictorYushchenko,earlySeptember2004,usingTDD(Dioxin),inKyiv.ProducedatRIHTOP,ResearchInstituteofHygiene,ToxicologyandOccupationalPathology,Volgograd.• Poisoningofex-FSBColonelAlexanderLitvinenko,London,November1,2006,usingPolonium210,producedatAvangard,Sarov.• Polonium210wasapparentlyalsousedtokillYuriShchekochikin,editorofNovayaGazeta andDumamemberin2003.Inthefive-memberDumagroupinvestigatingthe1999apartmenthousebombings,fourofthefivequicklydie.

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Context:SelectedRussianactivitiesinthesametimeperiod- 3

• SupportforSyriangovernmentuseofSarin,2013topresent• SupportforSyriangovernmentevasionofCWCviolations,2013topresent• AttackedOPCWandhobbledOPCW/UNSecretary-GeneralonsiteinspectionmechanismsinSyria,2018-2019• Poisoningofex-GRUagent,SergeiSkripal,usingaNovichokCWagent(A-324)onMarch4,2018,inSalisbury,UK.

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UniformnatureofRussiangovernmentresponseinallcases(includingshootdownofMH-17)

• Denial• Ridicule,mockery•Massivedisinformationeffort

§Offered~20explanationsfortheNovichok event:UKdidit,USdidit,Czechs,Swedes,Norwegians,Dutchdidit....

§TechnicalmeansintheMH-17case:falsifiedsatelliteimages,falsifiedradartracks,etc.

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WhatDoesitMean?• Doany(other)governments believeit?

§ InRussia,theirownpopulation?§ InGeorgia,thepro-Russianpopulation(andArmenia,Uzbekistanetc)?

§ PerhapsHamas?Africanpopulations,ifredistributedthere.•Wedon’tknowtheanswer,butdon’tunderestimate,remember§ Koreanwarallegations§ IndiaandPakistanallegations§ AIDSdisinformationcampaign

• Allweresuccessfulinwhattheyaimedtodo.

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WhyDoestheRussianGovernmentdoit?- 11. ToaccusetheUSofdoingBW,R&Dormore,violatingtheBWC

§ ReprisalfortheannualUSNoncompliancestatementssectiononRussia’snon-compliancewiththeBWC.

§MakestheclaimthattheUS“has”19or23military BWfacilitiesaroundtheworld(viz,all CTR-fundedorsupportedsites,butnot NAMRU,WRIAR,etc).

2. Diversion:RemovepublicattentionfromRussiangovernmentactivities (constantlysuggestedbynumerouscommentators)• FrommurderofLitvinenko• FromRussianinvasionandcontinuingwarinUkraine• FromSyriangovernmentuseofCW• FromRussiangovernmentsupportforSyriangovernmentuseofCW• AndifPutin’s2013remarksaboutdevelopinggeneticweaponsmeantanoffensiveRussianMinistryofDefense BWprogram,tocoverthatup.

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WhyDoestheRussianGovernmentdoit?- 2

3.ToattackGeorgia[sincethe2008Russianinvasion]andtoweakenUS-Georgianties• AndthoseofanyothercountryhostingaNunn-Lugarbiodefensefacility.

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WhatdoesittellusaboutRussian/PutinGovernmentandtheBWC?

• DisdainfortheBWC,notmuchinterestedinmaintaining,safeguarding,theintegrityofthetreaty.[AlsoMedvedev’spresidency,2008-2012]•Willingtospendyears making(hundreds of)falseBWallegationsagainstotherstates,toaccusetheUSofBW,andtoattackandunderminetheGeorgiangovernmentforlocalpoliticalpurposes.

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EPILOGUE

• FollowingthebeginningoftheCoronaviruspandemicinJanuary2020,RussiangovernmentmediaandRussiangovernmentproxywebsitesdistributedover400CoronavirusdisinformationpostsbetweenJanuary24andMay1,2020.• Thesecontaineddozensofdifferentthemes,butone-thirdofthetotalaccusedtheUSgovernmentofhavingproducedanddistributedtheCoronavirus.


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