Russian-Armenian (Slavonic) University.€¦ · Russian Federation Iran Armenia’s...
10
Armenia’s integration policy between ‘complementarity’ and ‘conditionality’ Norayr Dunamalyan Russian-Armenian (Slavonic) University. Policy Memo Presented at the Moscow BEAR Policy Conference “Evaluating the Potential for Cooperation: the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union” Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO) September 16-17, 2019
Transcript of Russian-Armenian (Slavonic) University.€¦ · Russian Federation Iran Armenia’s...
Armenia’s integration policy between ‘complementarity’ and ‘conditionality’
Norayr Dunamalyan
Russian-Armenian (Slavonic) University.
Policy Memo Presented at the Moscow BEAR Policy Conference
“Evaluating the Potential for Cooperation: the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union”
Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO)
September 16-17, 2019
ARMENIA’S INTEGRATION POLICY BETWEEN “COMPLEMENTARITY”
AND “CONDITIONALITY”
By N. Dunamalyan
Turkey
Russian Federation
Iran
Armenia’s geopolitical position
EU
Civil society
Media
Strengthening of institutions and good governance
EAEU
Tax policy
Duties
Labor migrants
Energy
Trade
Agriculture
Medicine
Technology
The EU and the EAEU in Armenia’s complementarity policy
62
54
4139
30
18
22
2527 28
810
23 22
1412 13
11 12
27
2011 2012 2013 2015 2017
Support Indifferent Don't support Don't know/refusal
Note: Question: Please tell me to what extent would you support Armenia's membership in the EU?
Source: The Caucasus Research Resource Center (CRRC).
Support of Armenia's membership in the
European Union, 2011–2017.
61
67
64
56
46
50
26
19
21
29
33
30
8
5
8
10
15
15
5
9
7
5
6
5
0 20 40 60 80 100
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Definitly positive, rather positive/ definitly yes, rather yes indifferent Rather negative, definitly negative / Rather no, definitly no Don't know/No answer
Note: Question: Five countries have decided to create the EAEU (in essence, a single market for the five countries). What is your attitude
towards that decision?
Source: EDB (2017).
Dynamics of Armenia’s public perception of the EAEU, 2012–2017.
0,435
0,915
1,169
1,644
1,904
1,440
1,669 1,799
1,915
2,192 2,079
1,491 1,382
1,539 1,512 3,577
4,9
6,384
9,206
11,662
8,648
11,121
10,546
11,537
12,4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
-
0,500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Migrant remittance inflows GDP
Source: World bank and Central bank of Armenia.
Migrant remittance inflows to Armenia in correlation to GDP, USD bln.
46
50
48
46
54
65
70
62
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
2016
2017
2018
2019
EAEU EU
Source: EDB, Annual survey report «EU NEIGHBOURS east».
The comparison of trust dynamics towards the EU and EAEU in Armenia, 2016-2019, per.
• the necessity to continue complementary policy in order to
avoid a scarce resource base effects;
• foreign policy pressure caused by the reformatting of the
post-Soviet space international relations;
• internal political problems associated with the Armenian
political elite desire of power retain;
• economic crisis and vulnerability to external factors;
• national security of Armenia and the necessity of minimization
of the risks of active hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh.
The factors of Armenia’s integration policy
Source: IRI public opinion survey, may 2019
