RUSSIA: AFTER THE 1998 CURRENCY CRISIS Currency crises in Russia and other transition economies. -...

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RUSSIA: AFTER THE 1998 CURRENCY CRISIS • Currency crises in Russi a and other transition economies. - In: International Financial Governance under Stress. Global Structures versu s National Imperatives . Edited by Geoffrey R. D. Underhill, Xiaoke Zh ang, Cambridge Universit y Press, 2003. • Accumulation of Foreign Exchange Reserves and Lo ng Term Economic Growth (co-authored with V. Pol terovich). – In: Slavic Eurasia’s Integra tion into the World Econ omy

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Transcript of RUSSIA: AFTER THE 1998 CURRENCY CRISIS Currency crises in Russia and other transition economies. -...

  • RUSSIA: AFTER THE 1998 CURRENCY CRISIS Currency crises in Russia and other transition economies. - In: International Financial Governance under Stress. Global Structures versus National Imperatives. Edited by Geoffrey R. D. Underhill, Xiaoke Zhang, Cambridge University Press, 2003.

    Accumulation of Foreign Exchange Reserves and Long Term Economic Growth (co-authored with V. Polterovich). In: Slavic Eurasias Integration into the World Economy. Ed. By S. Tabata and A. Iwashita. Slavic Research Center, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, 2004.

  • Chart2

    -3-315

    -5-5160

    -14.5-14.52510

    -8.7-8.7840

    -12.7-12.7215

    -4.1-4.1131

    -3.4-3.421.8

    0.90.911

    -4.9-4.984.4

    5.45.436.5

    8.38.320.2

    5518.6

    4.34.315.1

    7.37.312

    7.27.211.7

    6.4200510.9

    GDP growth rates

    Inflation (CPI, Dec. to Dec.)

    CPI

    GDP growth rates and inflation (right axis, log scale) in Russia, %, 1990-2005

    Sheet1

    CPIDec. to Dec., % increase

    199015

    1991160

    19922510

    1993840

    1994215

    1995131

    199621.8

    199711

    199884.4

    199936.5

    200020.2

    200118.6

    200215.1

    200312

    200411.7

    200510.9

    CPI, monthly rates

    Jan-9517.8

    Feb-9511

    Mar-958.9

    Apr-958.5

    May-957.9

    Jun-956.7

    Jul-955.4

    Aug-954.6

    Sep-954.5

    Oct-954.7

    Nov-954.5

    Dec-953.2

    Jan-964.1

    Feb-962.8

    Mar-962.8

    Apr-962.2

    May-961.6

    Jun-961.2

    Jul-960.8

    Aug-96-0.3

    Sep-960.3

    Oct-961.2

    Nov-961.9

    Dec-961.4

    Jan-972.3

    Feb-971.6

    Mar-971.4

    Apr-970.9

    May-970.9

    Jun-971.1

    Jul-970.9

    Aug-97-0.1

    Sep-97-0.4

    Oct-970.2

    Nov-970.7

    Dec-970.9

    Jan-981.5

    Feb-980.9

    Mar-980.7

    Apr-980.4

    May-980.5

    Jun-980.1

    Jul-980.1

    Aug-983.7

    Sep-9838.4

    Oct-98

    Nov-98

    Dec-98

    GDP growth rates

    1990-3

    1991-5

    1992-14.5

    1993-8.7

    1994-12.7

    1995-4.1

    1996-3.4

    19970.9

    1998-4.9

    19995.4

    20008.3

    20015

    20024.3

    20037.3

    20047.2

    20056.4

    ExportsImportsTrade balanceCA balanceErrors & omissionsFOREX reserves, excluding gold, end of the periodDebt service paidExternal gov. debtGDP

    1990378.8

    199120.8

    19921.9107.785.4

    199344.434.99.52.15.8-5.2112.783.5

    199469.648.521.110.4-0.44-4.7119.9277.1

    199581.56417.54.5-7.914.4-6.7120.4363.3

    199690.567.423.112.1-8.111.2-7.3125429.2

    199788.971.717.32.9-7.312.9-7.5135447

    1998 (1st half)72.5714.3-12-5.311.2-7159.6450

    1997/184.815.163.9-2.512.4-1.6

    1997/282.817.13.5-0.2-120.3-1.6

    1997/386.818.33.4-1-1.218.7-1.7

    1997/493.221.14.30.2-2.612.9-2.5

    1998/17216.81.1-1.5-1.611.9-2.2

    1998/211.2

    1998/38.5

    Gov revExpDef

    199244.265.8-21.6GKO-OFZCBR credits to the governmentGKO held by CBR

    199336.143.3-7.20.2

    199434.645-10.410.6

    199532.237.7-5.576.657.79435.7

    199626.135-8.9237.158.40775.74

    199727.936.3-8.4384.90.374136

    199824.530.4-5.9436138

    GKO-OFZCBR credits to the governmentGKO held by CBRDomestic nonGKO debtTotal domestic debtExternal debtGDP

    19941.73571311610.7357131161117.164286883918.944.5610.7

    19954.8328075712.58044164042.25236593069.56719242914.433.81585

    199610.77629306437.33387873833.4424143269.123706935719.928.42200.2

    199714.88399071939.62490332565.25908739370.116009280715322586

    July 1,199818.413717374812.58552242595.82819494890.58628262521935.52367.8

    Table External indebtness in selected transition economies, Asian and Latin American countries, 1996, %

    CountryDebt/GDPDebt service payments/export of goods and servicesShort term debt/total debtReserves/Short term debtReserves/GDPShort term debt/GDPReservesGDP

    Albania323.57536.245550656112.01190033472.240.3232.689

    Armenia2710.70.314264.608487442111.55433287480.0810.1681.454

    Azerbaijan101.33.61605.78386605785.78082191780.360.2113.65

    Belarus2129.5121.51748128722.42427375171.9950.46919.346

    Bosnia and Herzegovina53--000--

    Bulgaria8920.59.2111.26135973339.1100801358.1880.8649.484

    China178.719.7409.137963112613.70203038463.349111.728815.412

    Croatia245.510532.816239540212.7875897492.42.4419.081

    Czech Republic428.329.6191.751820008323.838586263412.43213.08554.89

    Estonia91.326.4618.792256743114.70250402022.3760.644.353

    Georgia26-4.7001.222-4.308

    Hungary624112.5282.895565010721.92440628837.759.83244.845

    Kazakhstan149.97.6887.74390095959.44559510621.0641.96120.761

    Kyrgyz Republic379.21.173247.8098498623298.11858608890.4075.2291.754

    Latvia92.39.41755.168571471614.84872611460.8460.7465.024

    Lithuania162.912.2553.850320008310.81115824661.9520.8417.779

    Moldova396.23.21393.920022728917.39612188371.2480.3141.805

    Mongolia659.71.31960.211361920816.56378600820.8450.1610.972

    Poland316.40.221611.802186103513.39931735540.06218.019134.477

    Romania2312.69.8392.70303534088.85152641662.2543.14335.508

    Russia259.69.5155.38048411373.69028649772.37516.258440.562

    Slovak Republic4111.938.3130.803024551520.539998945315.7033.89518.963

    Slovenia218.71.44210.003863599512.3774113590.2942.29718.558

    Tajikistan240.11.9000.456-2.033

    Turkmenistan1810.634.8006.264-4.31

    Ukraine186.14.8518.64644429464.48110527870.8641.97244.007

    Uzbekistan98.13.9000.351-25.198

    Vietnam1233.514.531.8063636275.672664952917.8351.32423.34

    CountryDebt/GDPDebt service payments/export of goods and servicesShort term debt/total debtReserves/Short term debtReserves/GDPShort term debt/GDPReservesGDP

    Argentina3144.213166.03614918266.69125681214.0319.719294.698

    Brazil2641.119.8154.80805382487.96951861095.14859.685748.916

    Chile4832.325.5170.674346660420.890540031212.2415.5274.292

    Mexico4435.419.169.40238748935.83257664468.40419.527334.792

    Peru4335.422.1189.816646756918.03827594139.50310.9960.926

    Venezuela5116.88.2569.10505161323.79997325854.18216.0267.311

    CountryDebt/GDPDebt service payments/export of goods and servicesShort term debt/total debtReserves/Short term debtReserves/GDPShort term debt/GDPReservesGDP

    Indonesia6436.82553.68023451488.58883752241619.396225.828

    Malaysia528.227.8194.474621524928.113251287614.45627.89299.213

    Philippines5113.719.3142.346965681814.01121183219.84311.74783.84

    Thailand5611.541.490.078376023720.883770697323.18438.645185.048

    CountryDebt/GDPDebt service payments/export of goods and servicesShort term debt/total debtReserves/Short term debtReserves/GDPShort term debt/GDPReservesGDP

    India2224.17.5423.68254161186.99076193661.6524.889356.027

    Pakistan3927.49.454.97939227672.01554452093.6661.30764.846

    Sheet1

    17.8

    11

    8.9

    8.5

    7.9

    6.7

    5.4

    4.6

    4.5

    4.7

    4.5

    3.2

    4.1

    2.8

    2.8

    2.2

    1.6

    1.2

    0.8

    -0.3

    0.3

    1.2

    1.9

    1.4

    2.3

    1.6

    1.4

    0.9

    0.9

    1.1

    0.9

    -0.1

    -0.4

    0.2

    0.7

    0.9

    1.5

    0.9

    0.7

    0.4

    0.5

    0.1

    0.1

    3.7

    38.4

    36069

    36100

    36130

    Monthly inflation

    Sheet2

    15

    160

    2510

    840

    215

    131

    21.8

    11

    84.4

    36.5

    20.2

    18.6

    15.1

    12

    11.7

    10.9

    2510

    Figure 2. Annual inflation rates in Russia (December-to-December increase in CPI, log scale)

    Sheet3

    9.52.1-5.219935.85.8

    21.110.4-4.7-0.444

    17.54.5-6.7-7.914.414.4

    23.112.1-7.3-8.111.211.2

    17.32.9-7.5-7.312.912.9

    4.3-12-7-5.311.211.2

    &A

    Page &P

    Trade balance

    Current account

    Debt service

    Errors and omissions

    Foreign exchange reserves*

    *Year end,excluding gold

    Figure 9. Russia's balance of payments and foreign exchange reserves*, billion dollars

    44.434.9

    69.648.5

    81.564

    90.567.4

    88.971.7

    72.571

    Export

    Import

    Trade surplus

    (1st half)

    Figure 8. Russia's foreign trade, billion dollars

    65.844.2

    43.336.1

    4534.6

    37.732.2

    3526.1

    36.327.9

    30.424.5

    Revenues

    Expenditure

    Deficit

    (1st half)

    Exp

    Gov rev

    Figure 7. Consolidated government revenues and expenditure, % of GDP

    0.7357131161117.164286883944.5

    2.58044164042.25236593069.56719242933.8

    7.33387873833.4424143269.123706935728.4

    9.62490332565.25908739370.116009280732

    12.58552242595.82819494890.586282625235.5

    Short-term debt (GKO-OFZ) held by the banks

    Short-term debt held by CBR

    External debt

    CBR credits to the government

    GKO-OFZ

    CBR credits to the government

    Figure 11. Government debt, % of GDP

    -3-3

    -5-5

    -14.5-14.5

    -8.7-8.7

    -12.7-12.7

    -4.1-4.1

    -3.4-3.4

    0.90.9

    -4.9-4.9

    5.45.4

    8.38.3

    55

    4.34.3

    7.37.3

    7.27.2

    6.42005

    Fig. 1. GDP growth rates in Russia, %, 1990-2004

    4.21991

    15.31.95

    63.65.8

    59.76.5

    82.417.2

    100.115.3

    104.417.8

    91.612.2

    64.912.5

    71.528

    7534.5

    8547.8

    9576.9

    100121.6

    RER

    FOREX

    Real effective exchange rate, Dec. 1995=100%

    Fig. 8. Real effective exchange rate, Dec. 1995=100%, and gross foreign exchange reserves, including gold, bln. $

    . 1. , %, 1990-2004

    GDP growth rates

    Inflation (CPI, Dec. to Dec.)

    CPI

    GDP growth rates and inflation (right axis, log scale) in Russia, %, 1990-2005

  • Chart2

    -31990

    -51991

    -14.51.95

    -8.75.8

    -12.76.5

    -4.117.2

    -3.415.3

    0.917.8

    -4.912.2

    6.412.5

    1028

    5.134.5

    4.747.8

    7.376.9

    7.2124.5

    6.4182.2

    GDP growth rates

    FOREX

    GDP growth rates

    Gross reserves

    Fig. GDP growth rates (%, right scale) and year end gross foreign exchange reserves, including gold, bln. $, left log scale

    Sheet1

    2004 as a % of 1989 - EBRD Tr.Rep 2005

    Poland142

    Slovenia126

    Slovakia121

    Hungary120

    Uzbekistan115

    Czech Republic114

    Turkmenistan112

    Estonia112

    Belarus111

    Kazakhstan103

    Romania100

    Armenia98

    Croatia94

    Latvia90

    Bulgaria89

    Lithuania89

    Russia82

    Kyrgyzstan80

    Azerbaijan72

    Tajikistan69

    Ukraine57

    Georgia45

    Moldova44

    CAUCASUS

    CENTRAL ASIA

    Real incomesReal wagesProductivity

    20018.719.95.8

    200211.116.25.1

    20031510.97.3

    20049.910.65.2

    20058.89.74.9

    Sheet1

    100100100100100100100100100100

    88.495.397.596.598.894.490.99696.61990

    82.286.883.38587.482.280.391.285.41991

    84.38277.982.484.67574.47873.71992

    87.684.37581.985.176.171.171.263.21993

    92.188.878.684.38779.172.362.248.71994

    98.692.584.185.592.184.773.959.642.71995

    104.695.789.686.696.588.266.457.538.51996

    111.8100.195.190.695.682.161.75837.21997

    117.1103.999.29594.676.163.955.336.61998

    121.9109.3101.199.395.175.265.457.136.51999

    126.8114.3103.3104.598.276.568.96338.72000

    128117.8106.7108.3101.380.671.76642.22001

    129.8121.5111.4111.9103.384.575.16944.22002

    133.7124.3115.7115.3106.488.178.573472003

    CentralEurope

    South Eastern Europe

    FSU (Russia, Ukraine)

    Poland

    Slovenia

    Slovak Republic

    Hungary

    Czech Republic

    Romania

    Bulgaria

    Russia

    Ukraine

    Aver

    Fig. 2. GDP change in selected transition economies, 1989 = 100%

    Sheet2

    14.788.1650654

    15.687.7106063

    19.387.98328176

    17.287.98328176

    15.187.89238994

    15.986.52901264

    15.786.8016881

    15.586.16544536

    15.186.89257992

    14.387.43793084

    15.586.52901264

    15.386.89257992

    1488.3467205357

    15.289.1498725405

    16.588.4359596473

    18.289.3283507639

    2088.0790032007

    24.588.8821552056

    24.589.5960680988

    23.988.8821552056

    23.188.9713943172

    22.989.6853072105

    16.890.577698327

    17.891.0238938852

    15.489.6853072105

    1590.3992201037

    16.989.4175898755

    1690.0422636571

    14.686.204981856

    16.286.6511774143

    18.481.1183524919

    12.578.6196573656

    12.776.0317231277

    13.679.6905267054

    12.882.2784609433

    12.285.0448734045

    11.686.7077695201

    11.485.9065683643

    10.888.3101718315

    11.288.2211494809

    11.990.5357305975

    12.292.3161776102

    11.993.6515128697

    11.294.8978257786

    11.295.8770716357

    11.890.8027976494

    11.594.0966246229

    12.594.0076022723

    12.995.7

    13.799.4

    15.597.8

    17.196.8

    19.699.1

    21100.2

    23.3100.5

    23.7101.5

    25101.8

    25.9101.8

    27.7102.7

    27.9102.7

    27.5103.1

    27.6102.5

    29.1102.4

    30.9103.6

    32.8106.1

    34.3103.9

    35.8105

    36.8106.6

    36.9105.7

    36.8107

    35.9107.5

    34.5105.4

    36.6105.4

    36.4104.5

    36.9106.2

    37.3108.1

    39.2109

    42.2108.5

    43.6113.2

    43.3110.2

    44.3110.0001996761

    45.6109.4357212668

    46.8108.9216178811

    48.2108.9392336869

    47.8109.9177899649

    49.2111.0061549032

    53.1112.2092835358

    55.5113.0284185065

    59.8113.564927961

    64.9114.125543255

    64.4114.9902629863

    64.5116.325355638

    62.8116

    62.1116.8

    64.9117.7

    68.2118.8

    76.9119.6

    84120.1

    86.338047

    FOREX

    INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT

    Source: Russian Economic Trends, Goskomstat, CBR.

    Fig. 8. Index of industrial output (2000 = 100%, left scale) and foreign exchange reserves, bln dollars (right scale)

    Sheet3

    15.15.615.331985

    13.23.410.11.81989

    15.432.91.85

    8.914.93.24.70.5

    9.77.55.92.20.5

    8.22.11.51.21.1

    22.321.819898.11989

    16.47.719962.82

    POLAND

    CHINA

    USSR/ RUSSIA

    Source: (Popov, 2000).

    "Ordinary government"

    Investment

    Subsidies

    Defence

    Debt service

    Fig. 5. Government expenditure, % of GDP

    87

    63

    68

    189

    89

    69

    86

    45

    52

    52

    42

    35

    83

    104

    88

    51

    90

    96

    57

    42

    84

    156

    39

    38

    70

    31

    56

    37

    China (1979-86)

    Vietnam

    Armenia

    Source: (Popov, 2000).

    Decrease in the share of government revenues in GDP from 1989-91 to 1993-96, p.p.

    1996 GDP as a % of 1989 GDP

    Fig. 4 Change in government revenues and GDP

    65.844.2-21.61992

    43.336.1-7.21993

    4534.6-10.41994

    37.732.2-5.51995

    3526.1-8.91996

    36.327.9-8.41997

    30.424.5-5.9-11000

    26.325.1-1.226.3

    26.529.42.926.5

    26.729.62.926.7

    27.330.22.927.3

    29.831.11.329.8

    27.805206570232.34619281474.540986244527.8052065702

    Revenues

    Expenditure

    Deficit

    Surplus

    Exp

    Gov rev

    Def

    Figure 2. Consolidated government revenues and expenditure, % of GDP

    100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100

    95.3101.69799.693.510288.3102.99598.49610392.696.687.697.6

    84.94101.195.886.780.897.287.792.289.691.491.297.8576.785.469.680.5

    82.2489.986.684.169.392.167.96070.564.97879.336.473.738.457.1

    82.7887.880.176.463.182.852.251.159.157.771.266.63163.228.656.4

    86.1684.17066.861.868.541.951.253.352.662.253.232.748.725.438.8

    90.5683.463.761.364.563.6375155.146.159.650.334.942.72638.3

    94.684.764.461.66759.337.452.557.64457.553.93738.528.735.3

    98.6486.871.162.774.152.639.65761.844.85859.238.137.231.835.7

    101.9690.677.161.577.655.343.659.26547.255.360.540.836.632.732.7

    105.3494.379.762.677.164.146.859.362.348.957.162.742.236.533.731.2

    109.4297.984.368.782.875.45263.364.8536366.144.738.734.331.9

    112.4298.388.37888.184.357.168.36958.46669.64942.23633.8

    115.58102.492.485.493.488.663.272.573.663.76969.255.444.23836.2

    119.08102.99693.197.697.269.177.27868.87372.860.3474138.2

    12411010610310510477858476787866534441

    128.411511411311211193929082828073554844

    Central Europe

    Uzbekistan

    Belarus

    Kazakhstan

    Estonia

    Turkmenistan

    Azerbaijan

    Latvia

    Lithuania

    Tajikistan

    Russia

    Kyrgyzstan

    Armenia

    Ukraine

    Georgia

    Moldova

    Fig. 2. GDP change in FSU economies, 1989 = 100%

    2004 as a % of 1989 - EBRD Tr.Rep 2005

    GDP in 2004 as a % of 1989

    Slovakia

    4.21991

    15.31.95

    63.65.8

    59.76.5

    82.417.2

    100.115.3

    104.417.8

    91.612.2

    64.912.5

    71.528

    7534.5

    8547.8

    9576.9

    100124.5

    110182.2

    RER

    FOREX

    Real effective exchange rate, Dec. 1995=100%

    Fig. 8. Real effective exchange rate, Dec. 1995=100%(left scale), and year end gross foreign exchange reserves, including gold, bln. $ (right log scale)

    133.513.518.214.8

    138.319.51020

    132.815.77.721.5

    117.212922.3

    104.29.711.323.8

    97.77.514.233.8

    997.824.850.3

    97.48.232.576.4

    72.29.243.5103.4

    Government

    CB (including government debt to IMF)

    Banks

    Non-financial enterprises

    Fig. Russia's external debt, billion $

    -31990

    -51991

    -14.51.95

    -8.75.8

    -12.76.5

    -4.117.2

    -3.415.3

    0.917.8

    -4.912.2

    6.412.5

    1028

    5.134.5

    4.747.8

    7.376.9

    7.2124.5

    6.4182.2

    GDP growth rates

    FOREX

    GDP growth rates

    Gross reserves

    Fig. GDP growth rates (%, right scale) and year end gross foreign exchange reserves, including gold, bln. $, left log scale

    8.77.2197019701970

    9.810.3197519751975

    1112.91980198034.8

    11.310.5991.838.5431.1

    10.4

    10.5

    10.7

    10.7

    11.214.31246.675355450210.572511848326.4

    11.415.21458.123893805310.828318584126.5

    12.222.81856.753982300915.469026548731

    14.530.61899.506873614219.811973392538.1

    15.731.61736.81252609621.30855949942.1

    1530.71867.549448123621.483222958141.4

    14.226.61785.87365728920.001023017939

    13.823.91637.013428571420.007714285738

    13.6231767.372023809520.261904761935

    14.726.22058.75759162321.330366492139

    15.428.32032.917761557221.89635036539

    15.629.82061.89603729623.339860139940

    16.330.91782.25273972622.786986301438.6

    16.429.5190721.865457184335.9

    1627.32007.420249653321.844660194234.3

    16.124.82477.142857142921.463414634132

    Mortality rate (per 1000)

    Murder rate (death statistics)

    Crime rate

    Murder rate (crime statistics)

    Suicide rate

    Crime rate (left scale), mortality rate (per 1000), murder rates and suicide rate (right scale) per 100,000 inhabitants

    1994Q11994Q3

    1994Q21994Q4

    1994Q31302

    1994Q41588.3333333333

    -3.34101848051690.6666666667

    -0.42178933941629.3333333333

    -4.20599655161699.3333333333

    0.62483090361824.6666666667

    6.82199406141678

    4.77661308231690.3333333333

    4.26994498581848.3333333333

    1.84993127812051.6666666667

    3.40074247742075.3333333333

    4.12671009832308.3333333333

    0.93592158932168.3333333333

    4.87698830651831.3333333333

    1.19372104691805.6666666667

    -0.33815686961820

    9.69431637981395.3333333333

    -3.85313926251265

    -11.54082010981222.6666666667

    -14.38728306751132.6666666667

    -22.06188781081103.6666666667

    -9.0799290021565.3333333333

    -3.03893972951977.3333333333

    -1.46397941862318.6666666667

    -1.13343629142715

    0.60967041882685.3333333333

    2.29928714872962.6666666667

    5.63605156582931.3333333333

    4.64510112752519.6666666667

    6.61154624372470

    5.46303228462397.6666666667

    3.38920939471793.3333333333

    4.99084228841927

    3.29717782062439.3333333333

    1.86912339482633.6666666667

    1.42740226242607.6666666667

    0.5108013563139

    -0.00170982822656

    3.23256119632803

    4.03393640752843.6666666667

    5.05887887593191

    6.48661472263480.6666666667

    2005Q13943.3333333333

    2005Q24149.6666666667

    2005Q3

    2005Q4

    Cons-GDP

    Oil price, cents a barrel, lagged 2 quarters

    Difference between annual (quarter to previous year quarter) real private consumption and GDP growth rates (left scale)) and oil prices, cents a barrel, lagged 2 quarters (right scale)

    2004 as a % of 1989 - EBRD Tr.Rep 2005

    GDP in 2004 as a % of 1989

    Hungary

    19851985198519850.593

    19900.8130.7850.7980.627

    19950.7710.7520.7510.683

    200020000.7750.7620.721

    0.8090.7950.790.7770.745

    0.8170.7950.7860.7660.755

    Cuba

    Russia

    Belarus

    Ukraine

    China

    Human Development Index for China, Belarus, Russia and Ukraine

    9.71950

    19511951

    19521952

    9.11953

    19541954

    8.267

    7.61956

    7.81957

    7.268

    195968.6

    7.11960

    196169

    196269

    19631963

    19641964

    7.370

    196670

    19671967

    19681968

    19691969

    8.268.93

    197169.5

    19721972

    19731973

    19741974

    9.368.13

    9.568

    9.61977

    9.71978

    10.167.9

    10.367.61

    10.268

    10.168.2

    10.41983

    10.867.9

    10.668.4

    9.869.6

    9.969.8

    10.169.5

    1069.5

    10.369.3

    11.469.01

    12.267.89

    14.565.14

    15.763.98

    1564.64

    14.265.89

    13.866.64

    13.667.02

    14.765.93

    15.465.27

    15.665.3

    16.364.8

    16.465.1

    1665.2

    16.465

    Mortality (left scale)

    Life expectancy (right scale)

    Mortality rate (per 1000)

    Life exp

    Moratlity rate, per 1000 inhabitants

    Average life expectancy, years

    Mortality rate (per 1000) and average life expectancy, years

    Real wages

    Real incomes

    Productivity

    Annual growth rates of real wages, real incomes and productivity, %

    40921-12589

    1461-244413866

    16574411-11584

    168145775-35834

    14928618-5434

    1102-946-14108

    -463-10334-21832

    216-653-6449

    -722960-1755

    -1769-48806180

    2073597-9419

    FDI

    Portfolio investment

    Other investment

    Inflows (+) abd outlows (-) of capital to and from Russia, mln. $

    -12159

    12883

    -5516

    11622

    4676

    -13952

    -32629

    -6886

    1133

    -469

    -6749

    Foreign investment, total

    5014.285714285735.71428571430

    35.675675675714.054054054135.675675675717.0886075949

    46.30186410117.9194227327.84125075178.6218158067

    47.09570957122.557755775625.74257425744.8261546445

    52.089604480219.075953797725.43927196363.5144927536

    52.332281176419.610200911923.80880805654.4372351002

    54.753468516521.067235859121.97652081112.2523898904

    58.739845298719.147199440315.29521514367.3165644684

    53.543290761314.579532260714.830403051920.5498625344

    46.187855891415.091162943518.693878668425.0423620026

    49.166258515516.362037490521.852041497814.4422221939

    51.317350836217.737419809420.121815552312.1370577901

    50.401301028517.547320393320.742670421212.7506409277

    49.589562478416.712801116821.07369978414.4478202984

    48.670597657316.195431745521.131806835116.2819954253

    Private consumption

    Government consumption

    Investment

    Net export

    Structure of Russian GDP, %

    100100

    94.863.1

    93.944.5

    90.930.6

    88.527.3

    86.223.5

    88.622.5

    86.712.4

    85.711.5

    90.520.2

    96.723.6

    103.423

    109.926

    12029.6

    130.3233

    Consumption

    Investment

    Growth of real investment and total (private and government) consumption, 1991=100%

    5.71

    2.70

    80

    2.70.396039604

    6.9-0.1972386588

    -1.62.9644268775

    5.62.6871401152

    10.23.9252336449

    7.35.5755395683

    61.7035775128

    5.7-0.5025125628

    9.61.0101010101

    10.92.1666666667

    15.211.0929853181

    12.64.845814978

    8.55.4621848739

    11.212.7490039841

    10.78.7161366313

    4.18.3423618635

    2.75.1

    10.69.5147478592

    14.314.5091225022

    13.519.6509863429

    12.813.1896005073

    10.55.9383753501

    9.60.7403490217

    8.8-2.3622047244

    7.8-2.1505376344

    7.10.9340659341

    7.90

    7.3-0.8

    81.2

    9.1

    GDP growth

    GDP deflator

    GDP growth rates (lagged one year) and inflation (GDP deflator) in China, % a year

    19901990

    -3160

    -52509

    -14.5840

    -8.7215

    -12.7131

    -4.122

    -3.411

    0.984

    -4.936.5

    6.420.2

    1018.6

    5.115.1

    4.712

    7.311.7

    7.210.9

    6.4

    GDP growth rates

    Inflation

    GDP growth rates

    Inflation,%( CPI,Dec-to-Dec)

    Fig. GDP growth rates (%, right scale, lagged 1 year) and inflation, % ( left log scale)

    100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100

    95.3101.693.51029799.695102.99610388.398.492.696.687.697.6

    84.94101.180.897.295.886.789.692.291.297.8587.791.476.785.469.680.5

    82.2489.969.392.186.684.170.5607879.367.964.936.473.738.457.1

    82.7887.863.182.880.176.459.151.171.266.652.257.73163.228.656.4

    86.1684.161.868.57066.853.351.262.253.241.952.632.748.725.438.8

    90.5683.464.563.663.761.355.15159.650.33746.134.942.72638.3

    94.684.76759.364.461.657.652.557.553.937.4443738.528.735.3

    98.6486.874.152.671.162.761.8575859.239.644.838.137.231.835.7

    101.9690.677.655.377.161.56559.255.360.543.647.240.836.632.732.7

    105.3494.377.164.179.762.662.359.357.162.746.848.942.236.533.731.2

    109.4297.982.875.484.368.764.863.36366.1525344.738.734.331.9

    112.4298.388.184.388.3786968.36669.657.158.44942.23633.8

    115.58102.493.488.692.485.473.672.56969.263.263.755.444.23836.2

    119.08102.997.697.29693.17877.27372.869.168.860.3474138.2

    : EBRD.

    . 1. , 1989 .= 100%

    65.844.2-21.61992

    43.336.1-7.21993

    4534.6-10.41994

    37.732.2-5.51995

    3526.1-8.91996

    36.327.9-8.41997

    30.424.5-5.9-11000

    26.325.1-1.226.3

    26.529.42.926.5

    26.729.62.926.7

    27.330.22.927.3

    29.831.11.329.8

    27.805206570232.34619281474.540986244527.8052065702

    : .

    Exp

    Gov rev

    Def

    . 4. , %

    133.513.518.214.8

    138.319.51020

    132.815.77.721.5

    117.212922.3

    104.29.711.323.8

    97.77.514.233.8

    93725.567.6

    97.1832.573.7

    : .

    ( )

    . 5. , . .

    -3-3

    -5-5

    -14.5-14.5

    -8.7-8.7

    -12.7-12.7

    -4.1-4.1

    -3.4-3.4

    0.90.9

    -4.9-4.9

    5.45.4

    8.38.3

    55

    4.34.3

    7.37.3

    20047

    : .

    . 3. , %, 1990-2004 .

    4.21991

    15.31.95

    63.65.8

    59.76.5

    82.417.2

    100.115.3

    104.417.8

    91.612.2

    64.912.5

    71.528

    7534.5

    8547.8

    9576.9

    100124.5

    : .

    Real effective exchange rate, Dec. 1995=100%

    . 6. (1995=100%) - , . .

    8.77.2197019701970

    9.810.3197519751975

    1112.91980198034.8

    11.310.5991.838.5431.1

    10.4

    10.5

    10.7

    10.7

    11.214.31246.675355450210.572511848326.4

    11.415.21458.123893805310.828318584126.5

    12.222.81856.753982300915.469026548731

    14.530.61899.506873614219.811973392538.1

    15.731.61736.81252609621.30855949942.1

    1530.71867.549448123621.483222958141.4

    14.226.61785.87365728920.001023017939

    13.823.91637.013428571420.007714285738

    13.6231767.372023809520.261904761935

    14.726.22058.75759162321.330366492139

    15.428.32032.917761557221.89635036539

    15.629.82061.89603729623.339860139940

    16.330.91782.25273972622.786986301438.6

    16.429.5190721.865457184335.9

    1627.32007.420249653321.844660194234.3

    16.124.82477.142857142921.463414634132

    ( )

    ( )

    100 .

    (), 100 .

    , , 1970-2004.

  • Chart2

    6.17.65.625.361961

    1.916.424.777.551962

    -2.257.347.0681963

    3.455.363.456.831964

    0.957.685.278.181965

    2.857.824.4311.121966

    1.123.865.328.621967

    12.037.984.958.121968

    7.484.894.656.551969

    8.155.993.7711.411970

    75.755.434.91971

    7.889.385.454.281972

    9.7811.78.9210.241973

    8.268.313.564.471974

    6.180.85.574.971975

    5.9911.568.819.331976

    8.647.765.69.841977

    9.216.655.1710.31978

    7.099.355.645.371979

    8.727.445.155.171980

    8.156.943.425.911981

    1.15.943.625.351982

    8.456.251.875.581983

    7.177.76-7.325.751984

    3.48-1.12-7.314.651985

    5.961.153.425.531986

    5.35.394.319.521987

    6.369.946.7513.291988

    9.089.066.2112.191989

    99.013.0411.17-3

    8.939.55-0.588.56-5.05

    7.228.890.348.08-14.53

    7.259.892.128.25-8.67

    7.549.214.398.99-12.57

    8.49.834.689.24-4.14

    7.64105.855.9-3.6

    4.77.325.19-1.371.4

    -13.13-7.36-0.58-10.51-5.3

    0.796.143.44.456.4

    4.928.865.974.7510

    3.830.321.762.175.09

    4.384.154.455.324.74

    4.15.34.56.97.3

    5.17.16.16.27.1

    5.955.14.56.4

    1997

    1998

    Indonesia

    Malaysia

    Philippines

    Thailand

    Russian Federation

    GDP growth rates in selected SEA countries and in Russia, %

    SEA-Growth

    COUNTRY_NAME196119621963196419651966196719681969197019711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005COUNTRY_NAME

    Indonesia6.11.91-2.253.450.952.851.1212.037.488.1577.889.788.266.185.998.649.217.098.728.151.18.457.173.485.965.36.369.0898.937.227.257.548.47.644.7-13.130.794.923.834.384.15.15.9Indonesia

    Malaysia7.66.427.345.367.687.823.867.984.895.995.759.3811.78.310.811.567.766.659.357.446.945.946.257.76-1.121.155.399.949.069.019.558.899.899.219.83107.32-7.366.148.860.324.155.37.15Malaysia

    Philippines5.624.777.063.455.274.435.324.954.653.775.435.458.923.565.578.815.65.175.645.153.423.621.87-7.32-7.313.424.316.756.213.04-0.580.342.124.394.685.855.19-0.583.45.971.764.454.56.15.1Philippines

    Russian Federation-3-5.05-14.53-8.67-12.57-4.14-3.61.4-5.36.4105.094.747.37.16.4Russian Federation

    Thailand5.367.5586.838.1811.128.628.126.5511.414.94.2810.244.474.979.339.8410.35.375.175.915.355.585.754.655.539.5213.2912.1911.178.568.088.258.999.245.9-1.37-10.514.454.752.175.326.96.24.5Thailand

    SEA-Growth

    1997

    1998

    Indonesia

    Malaysia

    Philippines

    Thailand

    Russian Federation

    GDP growth rates in selected SEA countries and in Russia, %

  • Chart4

    97

    96.5

    96.8

    96.8

    96.7

    95.2

    95.5

    94.8

    95.6

    96.2

    95.2

    95.6

    97.1998586184

    98.0834936967

    97.2980402938

    98.2798570475

    96.9053135923

    97.7889486706

    98.5744020736

    97.7889486706

    97.887130346

    98.672583749

    99.6544005027

    100.1453088796

    98.672583749

    99.4580371519

    98.3780387229

    99.0653104505

    94.8434984095

    95.3344067863

    89.2471429132

    86.4980560028

    83.650787417

    87.6762361073

    90.5235046931

    93.5671366296

    93.7634999804

    95.7271334878

    99.7525821781

    97.0617042116

    99.6082272282

    101.5670910872

    103.0362389814

    104.4074436827

    104.9951028404

    100.0979431929

    103.5259549461

    103.4280117532

    105.582761998

    107.541625857

    106.4642507346

    102.3506366308

    109.3046033301

    110.2840352595

    111.361410382

    115.05695

    112.5547

    Devaluation

    Fig. 12. Index of industrial output, seasonally adjusted, 1995 = 100%

    Sheet1

    CPIDec. to Dec., % increaseTrade debts to enterprisesTrade arrears to enterprisesArrears/debts ratio, %Trade arrears of enterprisesAll arrears of enterprises

    1990156/1/9221212257.5471698113

    19911607/1/9224415061.4754098361

    199225108/1/9225115260.5577689243

    19938409/1/9219512162.0512820513

    199422010/1/921057268.5714285714

    199513011/1/921567749.358974359

    199621.812/1/921406546.4285714286

    1997111/1/931446243.0555555556

    199884.42/1/931285442.1875

    199936.53/1/931134539.8230088496

    2000184/1/931254737.6

    CPI, monthly rates5/1/931406042.8571428571

    J-9517.86/1/931355742.2222222222

    F-95117/1/931315340.4580152672

    M-958.98/1/931315541.9847328244

    A-958.59/1/931395841.726618705

    M-957.910/1/931446041.6666666667

    J-956.711/1/931566742.9487179487

    J-955.412/1/931607245

    A-954.61/1/941939448.7046632124

    S-954.52/1/942069948.0582524272

    O-954.73/1/942001005093

    N-954.54/1/9423211850.8620689655108

    D-953.25/1/9424813052.4193548387147

    J-964.16/1/9425313653.7549407115100144

    F-962.87/1/9427514954.1818181818108164

    M-962.88/1/9426614353.7593984962106160

    A-962.29/1/9426215057.2519083969110166

    M-961.610/1/9423414160.2564102564106163

    J-961.211/1/9422113259.7285067873100157

    J-960.812/1/949982128

    A-96-0.31/1/959681131

    S-960.32/1/959271129

    O-961.23/1/957859111

    N-961.94/1/958163119

    D-961.45/1/958463126

    J-972.36/1/957659117

    F-971.67/1/959671142

    M-971.48/1/958770137

    A-970.99/1/959168144

    M-970.910/1/958665138

    J-971.111/1/959473156

    J-970.912/1/958870148

    A-97-0.11/1/96

    S-97-0.42/1/96

    O-970.23/1/96

    N-970.74/1/96134157227

    D-970.9

    J-981.5

    F-980.9

    M-980.7

    A-980.4

    M-980.5

    J-980.1

    J-980.1

    A-983.7

    S-9838.4

    O-984.5

    N-985.7

    D-9811.6

    J-998.4

    F-994.1051660517

    M-992.7913159061

    A-993.0172413793

    M-992.2426778243

    J-981.8988377803

    J-982.8112449799

    A-991.171875

    S-991.46566

    O-991.36194M3 (left scale)Prices (left scale)*Industrial output (right scale)*

    N-991.221491Q199212.614.0-7.1

    D-991.246982Q199215.615.01.5

    J-002.344063Q199228.926.01.1

    F-001.04813

    M-000.65309

    A-000.83069

    M-001.7411

    J-002.56696

    J-001.81356

    A-000.96188

    S-00

    GDP growth rates

    1990-3

    1991-5

    1992-14.5

    1993-8.7

    1994-12.74Q199217.223.7-0.4

    1995-4.11Q199315.120.0-5.9

    1996-4.92Q199314.122.31.1

    19970.63Q199317.016.3-3.4

    1998-54Q199310.19.6-0.5

    19993.21Q19946.86.0-1.3

    200072Q199415.39.02.7

    3Q19948.016.00.0

    4Q19945.09.0-0.9

    ExportsImportsTrade balanceCA balanceErrors & omissionsFOREX reserves, excluding gold, end of the periodDebt service paidExternal gov. debtGDP

    1990378.8

    199120.8

    19921.9107.785.4

    199344.434.99.52.15.8-5.2112.783.5

    199469.648.521.110.4-0.44-4.7119.9277.1

    199581.56417.54.5-7.914.4-6.7120.4363.3

    199690.567.423.112.1-8.411.2-7.3125429.2

    199788.971.717.53.6-7.612.9-7.5135447

    1998 (1st half)73.568.94.6-11.7-6.811.2-8.2159.6450

    1998 (2nd half)7154171-77.8-6

    1997/184.815.163.9-2.512.4-1.6

    1997/282.817.13.5-0.2-120.3-1.6

    1997/386.818.33.4-1-1.218.7-1.7

    1997/493.221.14.30.2-2.612.9-2.5

    1998/17216.81.1-1.5-1.611.9-2.2

    1998/211.2

    1998/38.5

    Gov revExpDef

    199244.265.8-21.6

    199336.143.3-7.2

    199434.645-10.4

    199532.237.7-5.5

    199626.135-8.9

    199727.936.3-8.4

    199824.530.4-5.9

    GKO-OFZCBR credits to the governmentGKO held by CBR

    GKO-OFZCBR credits to the governmentGKO held by CBRDomestic nonGKO debtTotal domestic debtExternal debtGDP0.2

    19941.73571311610.7357131161117.164286883918.944.5610.710.6

    19954.8328075712.58044164042.25236593069.56719242914.433.8158576.657.79435.7

    199610.77629306437.33387873833.4424143269.123706935719.928.42200.2237.158.40775.74

    199714.88399071939.62490332565.25908739370.116009280715322586384.90.374136

    July 1,199818.413717374812.58552242595.82819494890.58628262521935.52367.8436138

    Table External indebtness in selected transition economies, Asian and Latin American countries, 1996, %

    CountryDebt/GDPDebt service payments/export of goods and servicesShort term debt/total debtReserves/Short term debtReserves/GDPShort term debt/GDPReservesGDP

    Albania323.57536.245550656112.01190033472.240.3232.689

    Armenia2710.70.314264.608487442111.55433287480.0810.1681.454

    Azerbaijan101.33.61605.78386605785.78082191780.360.2113.65

    Belarus2129.5121.51748128722.42427375171.9950.46919.346

    Bosnia and Herzegovina53--000--

    Bulgaria8920.59.2111.26135973339.1100801358.1880.8649.484

    China178.719.7409.137963112613.70203038463.349111.728815.412

    Croatia245.510532.816239540212.7875897492.42.4419.081

    Czech Republic428.329.6191.751820008323.838586263412.43213.08554.89

    Estonia91.326.4618.792256743114.70250402022.3760.644.353

    Georgia26-4.7001.222-4.308

    Hungary624112.5282.895565010721.92440628837.759.83244.845

    Kazakhstan149.97.6887.74390095959.44559510621.0641.96120.761

    Kyrgyz Republic379.21.173247.8098498623298.11858608890.4075.2291.754

    Latvia92.39.41755.168571471614.84872611460.8460.7465.024

    Lithuania162.912.2553.850320008310.81115824661.9520.8417.779

    Moldova396.23.21393.920022728917.39612188371.2480.3141.805

    Mongolia659.71.31960.211361920816.56378600820.8450.1610.972

    Poland316.40.221611.802186103513.39931735540.06218.019134.477

    Romania2312.69.8392.70303534088.85152641662.2543.14335.508

    Russia259.69.5155.38048411373.69028649772.37516.258440.562

    Slovak Republic4111.938.3130.803024551520.539998945315.7033.89518.963

    Slovenia218.71.44210.003863599512.3774113590.2942.29718.558

    Tajikistan240.11.9000.456-2.033

    Turkmenistan1810.634.8006.264-4.31

    Ukraine186.14.8518.64644429464.48110527870.8641.97244.007

    Uzbekistan98.13.9000.351-25.198

    Vietnam1233.514.531.8063636275.672664952917.8351.32423.34

    CountryDebt/GDPDebt service payments/export of goods and servicesShort term debt/total debtReserves/Short term debtReserves/GDPShort term debt/GDPReservesGDP

    Argentina3144.213166.03614918266.69125681214.0319.719294.698

    Brazil2641.119.8154.80805382487.96951861095.14859.685748.916

    Chile4832.325.5170.674346660420.890540031212.2415.5274.292

    Mexico4435.419.169.40238748935.83257664468.40419.527334.792

    Peru4335.422.1189.816646756918.03827594139.50310.9960.926

    Venezuela5116.88.2569.10505161323.79997325854.18216.0267.311

    CountryDebt/GDPDebt service payments/export of goods and servicesShort term debt/total debtReserves/Short term debtReserves/GDPShort term debt/GDPReservesGDP

    Indonesia6436.82553.68023451488.58883752241619.396225.828

    Malaysia528.227.8194.474621524928.113251287614.45627.89299.213

    Philippines5113.719.3142.346965681814.01121183219.84311.74783.84

    Thailand5611.541.490.078376023720.883770697323.18438.645185.048

    CountryDebt/GDPDebt service payments/export of goods and servicesShort term debt/total debtReserves/Short term debtReserves/GDPShort term debt/GDPReservesGDP

    India2224.17.5423.68254161186.99076193661.6524.889356.027

    Pakistan3927.49.454.97939227672.01554452093.6661.30764.846

    Sheet1

    1

    Figure 4. Monthly inflation rates in Russia, %

    Sheet2

    1

    2510

    Forecast

    Figure 3. Annual (December-to-December) inflation rates in Russia

    Sheet3

    1

    Forecast

    Figure 5. Russia's GDP growth rates, %

    111111

    &A

    Page &P

    Trade balance

    Current account

    Debt service

    Errors and omissions

    Foreign exchange reserves*

    *End of period,excluding gold

    Figure 9. Russia's balance of payments and foreign exchange reserves*, billion dollars

    11

    Export

    Import

    Trade surplus

    Figure 8. Russia's foreign trade, billion dollars

    11

    Revenues

    Expenditure

    Deficit

    (1st half)

    #REF!

    #REF!

    Figure 7. Consolidated government revenues and expenditure, % of GDP

    1111

    Short-term debt (GKO-OFZ) held by the banks

    Short-term debt held by CBR

    External debt

    CBR credits to the government

    #REF!

    #REF!

    Figure 11. Government debt, % of GDP

    0

    0

    0

    0

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    0

    Figure 4. Monthly inflation rates in Russia, %

    %

    Fig. 4. Monthly inflation rates, %

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    2510

    Forecast

    Figure 3. Annual inflation rates in Russia (CPI, December-to-December increase)

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

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    0

    Figure 5. Russia's GDP growth rates, %

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    Trade balance

    Current account

    Debt service

    Errors and omissions

    Foreign exchange reserves*

    *End of period,excluding gold

    *End of the period, excluding gold.

    Trade balance

    Figure 9. Russia's balance of payments and foreign exchange reserves*, billion dollars

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    Export

    Import

    Trade surplus

    Figure 8. Russia's foreign trade, billion dollars

    65.844.2

    43.336.1

    4534.6

    37.732.2

    3526.1

    36.327.9

    30.424.5

    Revenues

    Expenditure

    Deficit

    (1st half)

    Exp

    Gov rev

    Figure 7. Consolidated government revenues and expenditure, % of GDP

    0.7357131161117.164286883944.5

    2.58044164042.25236593069.56719242933.8

    7.33387873833.4424143269.123706935728.4

    9.62490332565.25908739370.116009280732

    12.58552242595.82819494890.586282625235.5

    Short-term debt (GKO-OFZ) held by the banks

    Short-term debt held by CBR

    External debt

    CBR credits to the government

    CBR credits to the government

    CBR credits to the government

    GKO held by CBR

    Domestic nonGKO debt

    External debt

    Figure 11. Government debt, % of GDP

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    *Lagged 4 months.

    M3 (left scale)

    Prices (left scale)*

    Industrial output (right scale)*

    Fig. 2. Average monthly growth rates of money supply (M3), prices and industrial output by quarters, %

    00000

    00000

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    Trade debts to enterprises

    Trade arrears to enterprises

    Arrears/debts ratio, %

    Trade arrears of enterprises

    All arrears of enterprises

    %

    Fig. 3. Trade debts and trade arrears of industrial enterprises, as a % of monthly industrial output

    Stock prices $ indices, Dec. 1993=100%

    Czech RepublicHungaryPolandRussia

    D-199268.24790

    J-1993

    F-1993

    M-1993

    A-1993

    M-1993

    J-1993

    J-1993

    A-1993

    S-1993

    O-1993

    N-1993

    D-1993100100100100

    J-1994100100

    F-1994117.2109

    M-1994137.9144.1134.1

    A-1994114.8126.994.7

    M-1994102.4123.295.6

    J-199496.4114.560.9

    J-199494.1116.578.3

    A-199498.5127.395.2

    S-199494114.664.6

    O-199489.4119.564.1

    N-199480.5108.148.5

    D-199472.3103.953.3313

    J-199569.782.143.4

    F-199567.184.545.7

    M-199562.483.551.4

    A-199561.287.268.1188.4

    M-199559.983.653.5231.3

    J-199556.593.762.4261.1

    J-199558.693.361.3299.3

    A-199560.593.161.8247.6

    S-199565.8100.950.6255.1

    O-199564.389.655.4215.6

    N-199559.58955.3205.3

    D-199573.289.653.8216

    J-199662.599.661.7224.4

    F-199679.2115.770201.5

    M-199684.2137.477.6203.1

    A-199686.9145.482.3247.6

    M-199691.3160.680.9280

    J-199690.7172.989.2501.2

    J-199692.4165.881.6350.2

    A-199697.3168.579.9439.4

    S-199697.8188.193.3423.4

    O-199694.3188.691.8403.4

    N-199686.5190.984.9429.9

    D-199686.6194.485459.2

    J-199790.5209.287.4485.5

    F-199793.3250.699.4803.6

    M-199783.7226.988.9737.5

    A-199779.8238.786.7697.4

    M-199766.9254.982.1825.6

    J-199769270.881.6919.3

    J-199764.3296.872.91077.7

    A-199768.4297.879.71300

    S-199771.8307.286.71204

    O-199775.4314.388.21303.7

    N-199758.5268.569.8800.4

    D-199759.2308.366.9990.5

    J-199856.8283.267.7815.5

    F-199862.2298.979.5761.5

    M-199864.2307.988.6790.5

    A-199859.9303.383.5643.4

    M-199862.327382.1573.3

    J-199854254.972.7375.1

    J-199862.626982.5378.4

    A-199858231.167.2159

    S-199851.1147.856.557.1

    O-199849.8145.349.943.2

    N-199854.5208.760.248.5

    D-19985321454.341.6

    J-199953238.963.536.6

    F-199944.820755.741.8

    CzechHungPolRus

    0000

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    &A

    Page &P

    Fig. 10. Dollar stock prices indices, Dec. 1993 = 100%

    Czech Republic

    Hungary

    Poland

    Russia

    Price ratioPr ratio-foreCons pricesExch. rateCons pr-foreExch rate-foreExch rate corridor

    12/199437.2100100

    1/199538.1704347826118115

    2/199538.3716535433131127

    3/199538.0028776978142139

    4/199539.5089655172154145

    5/199543.7492957746167142

    6/199551.3302325581178129

    7/199555.2095238095187126123.3140.5

    8/199557.8666666667196126123.3140.5

    9/199559.578125205128123.3140.5

    10/199562215129123.3140.5

    11/199563.6091603053224131123.3140.5

    12/199565.6636363636233132123.3140.5

    1/199667.8410526316242.55133130.4147.6

    2/199669.219761194249.34134130.4147.6

    3/199670.6331555556256.33135130.4147.6

    4/199670.618261.97138130.4147.6

    5/199670.7225142857266.16140130.4147.6

    6/199670.0686713287269.35143130.4147.6

    7/199669.0493150685271146143.3160.5

    8/199666.984717608271150.5

    9/199666.2281967213271.5152.5

    10/199666.213592233275154.5

    11/199666.5559105431280156.5

    12/199668.4532692551291158.14157.6174.8

    1/199769.285298160

    2/199769.5628482972302161.5

    3/199770.063803681307163

    4/199770.3170731707310164

    5/199770.598540146312164.4

    6/199771.4167679222316164.6316164.6

    7/199771.486746988319166

    8/199771.5128358209322167.5

    9/199771.6485207101325.5169

    10/199771.7818181818329170.5

    11/199771.8046511628332172

    12/199771.8270893372335173.5164.76181.96

    PricesEX-ratePrice ratioCorrCorrPricesExch ratePrice ratio

    Dec. 199410010037.2

    Dec. 199523313265.6636363636123.3140.5

    Dec. 1996291158.1468.4532692551157.6174.8

    Dec. 1997317173.567.9677233429164.76181.96317173.567.9677233429

    Dec. 199815120533517670.8068181818

    Dec.199915120535317873.7730337079

    Dec. 200015120537518077.5

    1995=100%

    1996.197

    1996.296.5

    1996.396.8

    1996.496.8

    1996.596.7

    1996.695.2

    1996.795.5

    1996.894.8

    1996.995.6

    1996.1096.2

    1996.1195.2

    1996.1295.6

    1997.197.1998586184

    1997.298.0834936967

    1997.397.2980402938

    1997.498.2798570475

    1997.596.9053135923

    1997.697.7889486706

    1997.798.5744020736

    1997.897.7889486706

    1997.997.887130346

    1997.1098.672583749

    1997.1199.6544005027

    1997.12100.1453088796

    1998.198.672583749

    1998.299.4580371519

    1998.398.3780387229

    1998.499.0653104505

    1998.594.8434984095

    1998.695.3344067863

    1998.789.2471429132

    1998.886.4980560028

    1998.983.650787417

    1998.1087.6762361073

    1998.1190.5235046931

    1998.1293.5671366296

    1999.193.7634999804

    1999.295.7271334878

    1999.399.7525821781

    1999.497.061704211699.1

    1999.599.6082272282101.7

    1999.6101.5670910872103.7

    1999.7103.0362389814105.2

    1999.8104.4074436827106.6

    1999.9104.9951028404107.2

    1999.10100.0979431929102.2

    1999.11103.5259549461105.7

    1999.12103.4280117532105.6

    2000.1105.582761998107.8

    2000.2107.541625857109.8

    2000.3106.4642507346108.7

    2000.4102.3506366308104.5

    2000.5109.3046033301111.6

    2000.6110.2840352595112.6

    2000.7111.361410382113.7

    2000.8115.05695

    2000.9112.5547

    2000.10

    2000.11

    PolandChinaUSSR/Russia

    19851989199519781985199419891996

    "Ordinary government"15.113.215.48.99.78.222.316.4

    Investment5.63.4314.97.52.121.87.7

    Subsidies15.310.12.93.25.91.5

    Defence31.81.84.72.21.28.12.8

    Debt service50.50.51.12

    Total3928.528.132.225.814.152.228.9

    11111111

    Consumer prices

    Exchange rate

    Exchange rate

    corridor

    Forecast (assuming

    1% monthly inflation)

    Ratio of Russian to US prices

    Fig. . Consumer prices, exchange rate of the dollar (Dec. 1994 = 100%, right scale) and the ratio of Russian to US prices (%, bars, left scale)

    00000000

    00000000

    00000000

    00000000

    00000000

    00000000

    00000000

    Fig. 4. Consumer prices, exchange rate of the dollar (Dec. 1994 = 100%) and the ratio of Russian to US prices (%, bars)

    Proclaimed targets

    Ratio of Russian to US prices,%

    Exchange rate

    Exchange rate

    corridor

    Exchange rate

    Exchange rate

    CPI

    Fig. 6. Consumer prices, exchange rate of the dollar (Dec. 1994 = 100%) and the ratio of Russian to US prices (%, bars)

    0

    0

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    0

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    Devaluation

    Fig. 12. Index of industrial output, seasonally adjusted, 1995 = 100%

    00000

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    &F

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    POLAND

    CHINA

    USSR/ RUSSIA

    "Ordinary government"

    Investment

    Subsidies

    Defence

    Debt service

    Fig. 13. Government expenditure, % of GDP

  • In Argentina, like in Russia, and unlike in SEA, output fell before devaluation (2002), not after

    Chart4

    2.90999344.4941514659

    -2.55690551.6457387996

    -7.4961931.117570858

    -2.39895959.0820221371

    12.6697168.9207453712

    11.9407773.4995205633

    5.90691970.6071840935

    5.83620171.0572103298

    -2.8452171.4876419105

    5.5266969.9723056532

    8.11104768.4475637819

    3.85017966.2860630315

    -3.38545764.031905953

    -0.788998963.3086443222

    -4.4088461.116098049

    -10.8944924.3883879152

    8.830

    930

    7.52005

    2002

    GDP growth (annual %)

    RER

    Argentina - GDP growth rates (%, left scale) and RER vs the US$ (ratio of national to US prices, right scale)

    1

    COUNTRY_NAMEIND1_DESC1960196119621963196419651966196719681969197019711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005

    ArgentinaGDP growth (annual %),,5.427844-0.852026-5.30819710.130310.56944-0.65972623.1919974.8225019.6795263.0456435.6581311.6284172.8117545.533804-2.84E-02-2.0182516.934148-4.50612510.222764.151762-5.689528-4.9571793.8751242.211773-7.5866777.875782.909993-2.556905-7.49619-2.39895912.6697111.940775.9069195.836201-2.845215.526698.1110473.850179-3.385457-0.7889989-4.40884-10.894498.897.5

    ArgentinaOfficial exchange rate (LCU per US$, period average),,,,8.72E-121.39E-111.40E-111.70E-112.09E-113.33E-113.50E-113.50E-113.79E-114.52E-115.00E-115.00E-115.00E-113.66E-101.40E-094.08E-097.96E-091.32E-081.84E-084.40E-082.59E-071.05E-066.76E-066.02E-059.43E-052.14E-048.75E-044.23E-020.48758910.95355440.99064170.99894580.99900840.999750.99966250.99950.99950.99950.99950.99953.063257

    ArgentinaPurchasing power parity conversion factor (LCU per international $),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1.00E-119.00E-092.00E-095.00E-092.00E-082.00E-094.00E-080.00000010.00000050.000042.51E-054.32E-059.54E-054.52E-040.01317330.28807750.65719680.72811690.70532750.70986750.71469770.69948690.68413340.66252920.63999890.63276990.61085540.747079

    RER0000000000000002.7341079973642.93383567949.063705050662.8338045869151.864093785210.886379941290.853505082838.576481539447.4835611911591.286331588641.71994769145.844333758944.494151465951.645738799631.11757085859.082022137168.920745371273.499520563370.607184093571.057210329871.487641910569.972305653268.447563781966.286063031564.03190595363.308644322261.11609804924.38838791523030

    ArgentinaInflation, consumer prices (annual %),,13.3943428.3198823.8993722.1965828.6253831.9142729.2009816.210167.57485913.5868834.732558.4458861.2490823.47489182.9268443.9655176.0018175.5147159.5071100.7644104.476164.7768343.8107626.7186672.180790.0966131.327342.95513079.812313.965171.671724.8999510.611494.1773473.3761170.15569590.52725830.9203365-1.166896-0.9359394-1.06663525.8685

    ArgentinaInflation, GDP deflator (annual %),,20.310728.8718525.5911528.7746221.2329325.6034629.0182610.275317.795836.46787531.2710664.2447965.5352930.63044197.6974438.3228159.4272161.3722147.37790.84081106.3641207.6177382.3494606.736625.802174.46149127.0864388.49133057.6292076.793132.953211.92076-1.4666572.849323.165194-5.24E-02-0.4639577-1.705203-1.8365861.037275-1.09577930.5552810.79.28.2

    1

    2002

    GDP growth (annual %)

    RER

    Argentina - GDP growth rates (%, left scale) and RER vs the US$ (ratio of national to US prices, right scale)

    2

    Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)

    Inflation, GDP deflator (annual %)

    Argentina - inflation rates, %

    3

    Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)

    Inflation, GDP deflator (annual %)

    Argentina - inflation rates, %

  • Russia's 1998 financial collapseIn a matter of days the exchange lost over 60% of its value more than in all most Latin American and Southeast Asian countries (except for Indonesia) Prices increased by nearly 50% in only 2 months after the crisisas compared to less than 6% annual inflation July 1998 to July 1997 before the crisisReal output fell by about 6% in 1998 after registering a small increase of 0.6% in 1997 for the first time since 1989, it fell in January - September 1998, i.e. mostly before the August 1998 crisis

  • Chart1

    100100100100100100100100100100100100

    341.6833667335104.9295774648102.3619186047104.3467790488103.4366139446138.9482168044100.9462595965101.6129032258104.461221688497.5145425701104.6891996892101

    237.6180933295106.6901408451106.1046511628106.4599638772105.1924982065145.7989119484101.838957329103.070719603106.177076183997.1443680592110.8702408702102

    221.2997423418107.5704225352108.5029069767108.2299819386106.6238513306142.0310296192102.606677379103.1637717122107.000686341897.726070862119.662004662103

    219.4388777555107.2183098592112.7180232558109.2113184828108.3353260684142.8772919605103.017318336103.1637717122106.52024708397.4616604971140.7498057498104

    238.7632407672108.4507042254117.6598837209111.402769416110.6309568544144.5093693331103.1958578825103.7841191067107.549759780498.2548915918126.0916860917105

    255.9404523332112.1478873239122.0203488372115.5388320289116.0284220954144.3481765061103.3208355651105.8933002481111.599176389898.2020095188125.7381507382105

    263.9564843974115.3169014085124.4186046512119.1390728477118.9389539849150.0100745517103.7493304767108.0334987593116.334934797598.1491274458134.3667443667105

    256.5130260521111.6197183099122.2020348837117.9771222155118.0815085574151.7025992343104.8919835744106.7928039702114.481811942398.4135378107137.9020979021106

    251.7892928715109.5070422535119.6220930233117.7543648405116.9097803437155.1883941165105.3740403499104.5905707196113.658201784598.9423585405146.62004662107

    247.7812768394107.3943661972120.4215116279118.1155930163119.676835309157.3241990731105.5882878057104.0012406948112.285518188199.3654151243153.3954933955108

    254.0795877469110.0352112676126.199127907121.2944009633120.4386294538160.3868627846107.0344581325107.1029776675115.0308853809100.2115282919157.0163170163109

    258.4454623533112.1478873239128.3430232558124.0276941601120.6435964882167.0965142051107.5522228174108.9950372208117.5703500343101.3220518244160.7964257964110

    258.2450615517112.323943662124.636627907125.4726068633120.8827246951165.8472697965108.8109266202109.5533498759117.5703500343104.600740349168.3760683761111

    260.3778986545113.3802816901123.9098837209126.8031306442118.1737437229165.5651823494108.4449205499108.6848635236117.3644474949107.8265468006182.5990675991111

    259.3043229316114.2605633803123.1104651163127.0078266105116.7970484747168.9703808181109.4090341011108.6848635236116.4722031572108.1967213115209.7902097902112

    253.4926996851112.8521126761118.6409883721127.224563516117.0395927988170.4815635704109.7482592394106.3275434243114.0013726836108.6197778953May-1998113

    255.4394503292114.7887323944121.6206395349130.0060204696118.3445495849172.6979649406110.6588109266108.1265508685115.6485929993109.201480698Jun-1998114

    254.6951044947114.7887323944114.9345930233130.8308248043118.0370990332175.4583921016111.3194072487108.2506203474116.2663006177112.0042305658Jul-1998114

    Aug-1998113.3802816901117.2965116279132.9560505719121.5454514399Aug-1998123.7636136404109.6774193548115.3054221002115.1771549445Aug-1998115

    Sep-1998Sep-1998111.9186046512132.4503311258122.6386089571Sep-1998166.5773968934Sep-1998Sep-1998146.483342147Sep-1998115

    Oct-1998Oct-1998106.1046511628128.8380493679120.2473268883Oct-1998283.8778789502Oct-1998Oct-1998203.0671602327971.250971251116

    Nov-1998Nov-1998Nov-1998Nov-1998Nov-1998Nov-1998282.0924834851Nov-1998Nov-1998175.56848228451165.5011655012180

    * CBR and street market rate

    Bulgaria

    Croatia

    Czech Republic

    Hungary

    Poland

    Romania

    Russia

    Slovakia

    Slovenia

    Ukraine

    Belarus*

    Kyrgyzstan

    Exchange rates in transition economies (national currencies per $1, January 1997=100%)

    Sheet1

    BulgariaCroatiaCzech RepublicHungaryPolandRomaniaRussiaSlovakiaSloveniaUkraineBelarusBulgariaCroatiaCzechHungaryPolandRomaniaRussiaSlovakiaSloveniaUkraine*Belarus**

    1/1/94111%8/1/96104%109%101%101%102%8/1/968/1/9619971997Republic19971997199719971997199719978/1/96

    2/1/94111%9/1/96104%108%101%101%102%9/1/969/1/96Actual exchange rate, units of national currencies per $19/1/96

    3/1/94105%10/1/96104%107%100%100%101%10/1/9610/1/9610/1/96

    4/1/94103%11/1/96104%107%100%100%101%11/1/9611/1/9611/1/96

    5/1/94104%12/1/96103%106%100%100%101%BulgariaCroatiaCzech RepublicHungaryPolandRomaniaRussiaSlovakiaSloveniaUkraineBelarus*Kyrgyzstan12/1/9612/1/96

    6/1/94102%1/1/97102%105%101%100%100%Jan-19971001001001001001001001001001001001001/1/97698.65.6827.52166.12.92734963560132.24145.71.891257401/1/9715500

    7/1/94101%2/1/97102%103%101%100%99%Feb-1997341.6833667335104.9295774648102.3619186047104.3467790488103.4366139446138.9482168044100.9462595965101.6129032258104.461221688497.5145425701104.68919968921012/1/9723875.9628.17173.323.02796896565432.76152.21.844269472/1/97

    8/1/94102%3/1/97101%99%102%100%99%Mar-1997237.6180933295106.6901408451106.1046511628106.4599638772105.1924982065145.7989119484101.838957329103.070719603106.177076183997.1443680592110.87024087021023/1/9716606.0629.2176.833.07937236570433.23154.71.837285383/1/97

    9/1/94101%4/1/97101%100%101%100%99%Apr-1997221.2997423418107.5704225352108.5029069767108.2299819386106.6238513306142.0310296192102.606677379103.1637717122107.000686341897.726070862119.6620046621034/1/9715466.1129.86179.773.12127049574733.26155.91.848308014/1/97

    10/1/94101%5/1/97100%100%100%100%100%May-1997219.4388777555107.2183098592112.7180232558109.2113184828108.3353260684142.8772919605103.017318336103.1637717122106.52024708397.4616604971140.74980574981045/1/9715336.0931.02181.43.17137091577033.26155.21.843362295/1/97

    11/1/94100%6/1/97100%100%100%100%100%Jun-1997238.7632407672108.4507042254117.6598837209111.402769416110.6309568544144.5093693331103.1958578825103.7841191067107.549759780498.2548915918126.09168609171056/1/9716686.1632.38185.043.23857172578033.46156.71.858324566/1/97

    12/1/9488%7/1/9797%100%98%95%85%Jul-1997255.9404523332112.1478873239122.0203488372115.5388320289116.0284220954144.3481765061103.3208355651105.8933002481111.599176389898.2020095188125.73815073821057/1/9717886.3733.58191.913.39657164578734.14162.61.857323657/1/97

    1/1/9562%8/1/9792%99%91%90%82%Aug-1997263.9564843974115.3169014085124.4186046512119.1390728477118.9389539849150.0100745517103.7493304767108.0334987593116.334934797598.1491274458134.36674436671058/1/9718446.5534.24197.893.48177445581134.83169.51.856345868/1/97

    2/1/9561%9/1/9782%98%84%82%72%Sep-1997256.5130260521111.6197183099122.2020348837117.9771222155118.0815085574151.7025992343104.8919835744106.7928039702114.481811942398.4135378107137.90209790211069/1/9717926.3433.63195.963.45667529587534.43166.81.861354969/1/97

    10/1/9784%98%86%83%77%Oct-1997251.7892928715109.5070422535119.6220930233117.7543648405116.9097803437155.1883941165105.3740403499104.5905707196113.658201784598.9423585405146.6200466210710/1/9717596.2232.92195.593.42237702590233.72165.61.8713774010/1/97

    11/1/97Nov-1997247.7812768394107.3943661972120.4215116279118.1155930163119.676835309157.3241990731105.5882878057104.0012406948112.285518188199.3654151243153.395493395510811/1/9717316.133.14196.193.50337808591433.53163.61.8793948411/1/97

    12/1/97Dec-1997254.0795877469110.0352112676126.199127907121.2944009633120.4386294538160.3868627846107.0344581325107.1029776675115.0308853809100.2115282919157.016317016310912/1/9717756.2534.73201.473.52567960599534.53167.61.8954041612/1/97

    1/1/98Jan-1998258.4454623533112.1478873239128.3430232558124.0276941601120.6435964882167.0965142051107.5522228174108.9950372208117.5703500343101.3220518244160.79642579641101/1/981805.56.3735.32206.013.531682936.02435.14171.31.916413891/1/98

    2/1/98Feb-1998258.2450615517112.323943662124.636627907125.4726068633120.8827246951165.8472697965108.8109266202109.5533498759117.5703500343104.600740349168.37606837611112/1/981804.16.3834.3208.413.538682316.094535.32171.31.978433402/1/98

    3/1/98Mar-1998260.3778986545113.3802816901123.9098837209126.8031306442118.1737437229165.5651823494108.4449205499108.6848635236117.3644474949107.8265468006182.59906759911113/1/9818196.4434.1210.623.459382176.07435.041712.039470013/1/98

    4/1/98Apr-1998259.3043229316114.2605633803123.1104651163127.0078266105116.7970484747168.9703808181109.4090341011108.6848635236116.4722031572108.1967213115209.79020979021124/1/981811.56.4933.88210.963.41983866.12835.04169.72.046540004/1/98

    5/1/98May-1998253.4926996851112.8521126761118.6409883721127.224563516117.0395927988170.4815635704109.7482592394106.3275434243114.0013726836108.61977789531135/1/981770.96.4132.65211.323.426184616.14734.28166.12.0545/1/98

    6/1/98Jun-1998255.4394503292114.7887323944121.6206395349130.0060204696118.3445495849172.6979649406110.6588109266108.1265508685115.6485929993109.2014806981146/1/981784.56.5233.47215.943.464385716.19834.86168.52.0656/1/98

    7/1/98Jul-1998254.6951044947114.7887323944114.9345930233130.8308248043118.0370990332175.4583921016111.3194072487108.2506203474116.2663006177112.00423056581147/1/981779.36.5231.63217.313.455387086.23534.9169.42.1187/1/98

    8/1/98Aug-1998113.3802816901117.2965116279132.9560505719121.54545143990123.7636136404109.6774193548115.3054221002115.17715494451158/1/986.4432.28220.843.5586.93235.361682.1788/1/98

    9/1/98Sep-199800111.9186046512132.4503311258122.63860895710166.577396893400146.4833421471159/1/9830.82203.599.332.779/1/98

    10/1/98Oct-199800106.1046511628128.8380493679120.24732688830283.877878950200203.0671602327971.25097125111610/1/9829.22143.5215.93.8425000010/1/98

    Nov-1998000000282.092483485100175.56848228451165.501165501218011/1/9815.83.3230000011/1/98

    ........

    ........

    Ukraine - from January 1996 through August 1996, Ukranian exchange rates were divided

    by a factor of 100,000.

    Currency reform was implemented September 1996.

    * Street market rate , January 1997 = 100%

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    IndonesiaKoreaMalaysiaPhilipinesThailandMexico

    Jan-97100100100100100100Jan-94

    Feb-9796.116878123894.259590913498.0296049407101.0101010101101.010101010181.1622433244Feb-94

    Mar-9797.068530382498.068059233197.0685303824101.0101010101101.010101010185.8000858001Mar-94

    Apr-9797.068530382497.087378640898.0296049407101.0101010101101.010101010187.4661068836Apr-94

    May-9798.039215686397.087378640899.009900990110010086.6250866251May-94

    Jun-9798.039215686397.087378640899.009900990110010088.3236177354Jun-94

    Jul-97101.071356377697.0873786408101.0305112144117.6470588235117.647058823589.1981090001Jul-94.

    Aug-97106.564364876498.0680592331108.8020890001121.9512195122121.951219512288.3236177354Aug-94.

    Sep-97119.560019129699.0687537151117.8689297501138.8888888889138.888888888989.1981090001Sep-94.

    Oct-97116.713352007599.0687537151115.127791849129.8701298701129.870129870189.1981090001Oct-94104%109%101%101%102%8/1/96

    Nov-97112.7110.2119130.1136.590.0900900901Nov-94104%108%101%101%102%9/1/96

    Dec-97158.4150.9133.1140.1157.3102.3751023751Dec-94104%107%100%100%101%10/1/96

    Jan-98311.8182.9154.9160.8186.8145.3065969195Jan-95104%107%100%100%101%11/1/96

    Feb-98288.9174.8134.5152.3160.1147.68867227885.68Feb-95103%106%100%100%101%

    Mar-98312.7160131.7147143.4173.43021637326.67Mar-95102%105%101%100%100%1/1/97

    Apr-98256.6149.2131144.9137.2163.80964964796.3Apr-95102%103%101%100%99%2/1/97

    May-98319.4150.5134.1148.1136154.96912887325.96May-95101%99%102%100%99%3/1/97

    Jun-98436.8149.9140152.2147.1161.72952711276.22Jun-95101%100%101%100%99%4/1/97

    Jul-98450.6139.8145.7157.4143159.64940457756.14Jul-95100%100%100%100%100%5/1/97

    Aug-98424.4143.3147.5163.2145.5160.9494811626.19Aug-95100%100%100%100%100%6/1/97

    Sep-98361.5147.9133.4165.1141.7163.80964964796.3Sep-9597%100%98%95%85%7/1/97

    Oct-98309.8148.4133.4164.7134.7173.9502470076.69Oct-9592%99%91%90%82%8/1/97

    Nov-987.66Nov-9582%98%84%82%72%9/1/97

    Dec-987.66Dec-9584%98%86%83%77%10/1/97

    Jan-9611/1/97

    Feb-9612/1/97

    1/1/98

    2/1/98

    3/1/98

    4/1/98

    5/1/98

    6/1/98

    7/1/98

    8/1/98

    9/1/98

    10/1/98

    Mexico

    Jan-94100

    Feb-9481.1622433244

    Mar-9485.8000858001

    Apr-9487.4661068836

    May-9486.6250866251

    Jun-9488.3236177354

    Jul-9489.1981090001

    Aug-9488.3236177354

    Sep-9489.1981090001

    Oct-9489.1981090001

    Nov-9490.0900900901

    Dec-94102.3751023751

    Jan-95145.3065969195

    Feb-95147.6886722788

    Mar-95

    Apr-95

    May-95

    Jun-95

    Jul-95

    Aug-95

    Sep-95

    Oct-95

    PricesEX-ratePrice ratioCorrCorrPricesExch ratePrice ratio

    Dec. 199410010037.2

    Dec. 199523313265.6636363636123.3140.5

    Dec. 1996291158.1468.4532692551157.6174.8

    Dec. 1997317173.567.9677233429164.76181.96317173.567.9677233429

    Dec. 199815120533517670.8068181818

    Dec.199915120535317873.7730337079

    Dec. 200015120537518077.5

    Sheet1

    1.041.091.011.011.021.11

    1.041.081.011.011.021.11

    1.041.07111.011.05

    1.041.07111.011.03

    1.031.06111.011.04

    1.021.051.01111.02

    1.021.031.0110.991.01

    1.010.991.0210.991.02

    1.0111.0110.991.01

    111111.01

    111111

    0.9710.980.950.850.88

    0.920.990.910.90.820.62

    0.820.980.840.820.720.61

    0.840.980.860.830.77

    ( )

    . 3. (, , 1994. =100%; - , , 1997.= 100%)

    Sheet2

    354313543135431354313543135431354313543135431354313543135431

    354623546235462354623546235462354623546235462354623546235462

    354903549035490354903549035490354903549035490354903549035490

    355213552135521355213552135521355213552135521355213552135521

    355513555135551355513555135551355513555135551355513555135551

    355823558235582355823558235582355823558235582355823558235582

    356123561235612356123561235612356123561235612356123561235612

    356433564335643356433564335643356433564335643356433564335643

    356743567435674356743567435674356743567435674356743567435674

    357043570435704357043570435704357043570435704357043570435704

    357353573535735357353573535735357353573535735357353573535735

    357653576535765357653576535765357653576535765357653576535765

    357963579635796357963579635796357963579635796357963579635796

    358273582735827358273582735827358273582735827358273582735827

    358553585535855358553585535855358553585535855358553585535855

    358863588635886358863588635886358863588635886358863588635886

    359163591635916359163591635916359163591635916359163591635916

    359473594735947359473594735947359473594735947359473594735947

    359773597735977359773597735977359773597735977359773597735977

    360083600836008360083600836008360083600836008360083600836008

    360393603936039360393603936039360393603936039360393603936039

    360693606936069360693606936069360693606936069360693606936069

    361003610036100361003610036100361003610036100361003610036100

    * CBR and street market rate

    Bulgaria

    Croatia

    Czech Republic

    Hungary

    Poland

    Romania

    Russia

    Slovakia

    Slovenia

    Ukraine

    Belarus*

    Kyrgyzstan

    Figure 1. Exchange rates in transition economies (national currencies per $1, January 1997=100%)

    Sheet3

    Indonesia

    Korea

    Malaysia

    Philipines

    Thailand

    Mexico

    Figure 2. Exchange rates in South East Asia (national curren-cies per $1, Jan. 1997 =100%) and in Mexico (Jan.1994 =100%)

    10010037.2Dec. 1994Dec. 1994Dec. 1994Dec. 1994Dec. 1994

    23313265.6636363636123.3140.5Dec. 1995Dec. 1995Dec. 1995

    291158.1468.4532692551157.6174.8Dec. 1996Dec. 1996Dec. 1996

    317173.567.9677233429164.76181.96317173.567.9677233429

    Dec. 1998Dec. 1998Dec. 199815120533517670.8068181818

    Dec.1999Dec.1999Dec.199915120535317873.7730337079

    Dec. 2000Dec. 2000Dec. 200015120537518077.5

    Fig. 4. Consumer prices, exchange rate of the dollar (Dec. 1994 = 100%) and the ratio of Russian to US prices (%, bars)

    Proclaimed targets

    Ratio of Russian to US prices,%

    Exchange rate

    Exchange rate

    corridor

  • Chart3

    100100100100100100

    96.116878123894.259590913498.0296049407101.0101010101101.010101010181.1622433244

    97.068530382498.068059233197.0685303824101.0101010101101.010101010185.8000858001

    97.068530382497.087378640898.0296049407101.0101010101101.010101010187.4661068836

    98.039215686397.087378640899.009900990110010086.6250866251

    98.039215686397.087378640899.009900990110010088.3236177354

    101.071356377697.0873786408101.0305112144117.6470588235117.647058823589.1981090001

    106.564364876498.0680592331108.8020890001121.9512195122121.951219512288.3236177354

    119.560019129699.0687537151117.8689297501138.8888888889138.888888888989.1981090001

    116.713352007599.0687537151115.127791849129.8701298701129.870129870189.1981090001

    112.7110.2119130.1136.590.0900900901

    158.4150.9133.1140.1157.3102.3751023751

    311.8182.9154.9160.8186.8145.3065969195

    288.9174.8134.5152.3160.1147.6886722788

    312.7160131.7147143.4173.4302163732

    256.6149.2131144.9137.2163.8096496479

    319.4150.5134.1148.1136154.9691288732

    436.8149.9140152.2147.1161.7295271127

    450.6139.8145.7157.4143159.6494045775

    424.4143.3147.5163.2145.5160.949481162

    361.5147.9133.4165.1141.7163.8096496479

    309.8148.4133.4164.7134.7173.950247007

    Indonesia

    Korea

    Malaysia

    Philipines

    Thailand

    Mexico

    Figure 2. Exchange rates in South East Asia (national curren-cies per $1, Jan. 1997 =100%) and in Mexico (Jan.1994 =100%)

    Sheet1

    BulgariaCroatiaCzech RepublicHungaryPolandRomaniaRussiaSlovakiaSloveniaUkraineBulgariaCroatiaCzechHungaryPolandRomaniaRussiaSlovakiaSloveniaUkraine*Belarus

    1/1/94111%8/1/96104%109%101%101%102%8/1/968/1/9619971997Republic1997199719971997199719971997

    2/1/94111%9/1/96104%108%101%101%102%9/1/969/1/96Actual exchange rate, units of national currencies per $1

    3/1/94105%10/1/96104%107%100%100%101%10/1/9610/1/96

    4/1/94103%11/1/96104%107%100%100%101%11/1/9611/1/96

    5/1/94104%12/1/96103%106%100%100%101%BulgariaCroatiaCzech RepublicHungaryPolandRomaniaRussiaSlovakiaSloveniaUkraine*12/1/96

    6/1/94102%1/1/97102%105%101%100%100%1/1/971001001001001001001001001001001/1/97698.65.6827.52166.12.92734963560132.24145.71.891

    7/1/94101%2/1/97102%103%101%100%99%2/1/97341.6833667335104.9295774648102.3619186047104.3467790488103.4366139446138.9482168044100.9462595965101.6129032258104.461221688497.51454257012/1/9723875.9628.17173.323.02796896565432.76152.21.844

    8/1/94102%3/1/97101%99%102%100%99%3/1/97237.6180933295106.6901408451106.1046511628106.4599638772105.1924982065145.7989119484101.838957329103.070719603106.177076183997.14436805923/1/9716606.0629.2176.833.07937236570433.23154.71.837

    9/1/94101%4/1/97101%100%101%100%99%4/1/97221.2997423418107.5704225352108.5029069767108.2299819386106.6238513306142.0310296192102.606677379103.1637717122107.000686341897.7260708624/1/9715466.1129.86179.773.12127049574733.26155.91.848

    10/1/94101%5/1/97100%100%100%100%100%5/1/97219.4388777555107.2183098592112.7180232558109.2113184828108.3353260684142.8772919605103.017318336103.1637717122106.52024708397.46166049715/1/9715336.0931.02181.43.17137091577033.26155.21.843

    11/1/94100%6/1/97100%100%100%100%100%6/1/97238.7632407672108.4507042254117.6598837209111.402769416110.6309568544144.5093693331103.1958578825103.7841191067107.549759780498.25489159186/1/9716686.1632.38185.043.23857172578033.46156.71.858

    12/1/9488%7/1/9797%100%98%95%85%7/1/97255.9404523332112.1478873239122.0203488372115.5388320289116.0284220954144.3481765061103.3208355651105.8933002481111.599176389898.20200951887/1/9717886.3733.58191.913.39657164578734.14162.61.857

    1/1/9562%8/1/9792%99%91%90%82%8/1/97263.9564843974115.3169014085124.4186046512119.1390728477118.9389539849150.0100745517103.7493304767108.0334987593116.334934797598.14912744588/1/9718446.5534.24197.893.48177445581134.83169.51.856

    2/1/9561%9/1/9782%98%84%82%72%9/1/97256.5130260521111.6197183099122.2020348837117.9771222155118.0815085574151.7025992343104.8919835744106.7928039702114.481811942398.41353781079/1/9717926.3433.63195.963.45667529587534.43166.81.861

    10/1/9784%98%86%83%77%10/1/97251.7892928715109.5070422535119.6220930233117.7543648405116.9097803437155.1883941165105.3740403499104.5905707196113.658201784598.942358540510/1/9717596.2232.92195.593.42237702590233.72165.61.871

    11/1/9711/1/97247.7812768394107.3943661972120.4215116279118.1155930163119.676835309157.3241990731105.5882878057104.0012406948112.285518188199.365415124311/1/9717316.133.14196.193.50337808591433.53163.61.879

    12/1/9712/1/97254.0795877469110.0352112676126.199127907121.2944009633120.4386294538160.3868627846107.0344581325107.1029776675115.0308853809100.211528291912/1/9717756.2534.73201.473.52567960599534.53167.61.895

    1/1/981/1/98258.4454623533112.1478873239128.3430232558124.0276941601120.6435964882167.0965142051107.5522228174108.9950372208117.5703500343101.32205182441/1/981805.56.3735.32206.013.531682936.02435.14171.31.916

    2/1/982/1/98258.2450615517112.323943662124.636627907125.4726068633120.8827246951165.8472697965108.8109266202109.5533498759117.5703500343104.6007403492/1/981804.16.3834.3208.413.538682316.094535.32171.31.978

    3/1/983/1/98260.3778986545113.3802816901123.9098837209126.8031306442118.1737437229165.5651823494108.4449205499108.6848635236117.3644474949107.82654680063/1/9818196.4434.1210.623.459382176.07435.041712.039

    4/1/984/1/98259.3043229316114.2605633803123.1104651163127.0078266105116.7970484747168.9703808181109.4090341011108.6848635236116.4722031572108.19672131154/1/981811.56.4933.88210.963.41983866.12835.04169.72.046

    5/1/985/1/98253.4926996851112.8521126761118.6409883721127.224563516117.0395927988170.4815635704109.7482592394106.3275434243114.0013726836108.61977789535/1/981770.96.4132.65211.323.426184616.14734.28166.12.054

    6/1/986/1/98255.4394503292114.7887323944121.6206395349130.0060204696118.3445495849172.6979649406110.6588109266108.1265508685115.6485929993109.2014806986/1/981784.56.5233.47215.943.464385716.19834.86168.52.065

    7/1/987/1/98254.6951044947114.7887323944114.9345930233130.8308248043118.0370990332175.4583921016111.3194072487108.2506203474116.2663006177112.00423056587/1/981779.36.5231.63217.313.455387086.23534.9169.42.118

    8/1/988/1/98113.3802816901117.2965116279132.9560505719121.54545143990123.7636136404109.6774193548115.3054221002115.17715494458/1/986.4432.28220.843.5586.93235.361682.178

    9/1/989/1/9800111.9186046512132.4503311258122.63860895710227.637921799700126.91697514549/1/9830.82203.5912.752.4

    10/1/9810/1/9800106.1046511628128.8380493679120.24732688830286.555972147800185.087255420410/1/9829.22143.5216.053.5

    0000000000

    ........

    ........

    * from January 1996 through August 1996, Ukranian exchange rates were divided

    by a factor of 100,000.

    Currency reform was implemented September 1996.

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    IndonesiaKoreaMalaysiaPhilipinesThailandMexico

    Jan-97100100100100100100Jan-94

    Feb-9796.116878123894.259590913498.0296049407101.0101010101101.010101010181.1622433244Feb-94

    Mar-9797.068530382498.068059233197.0685303824101.0101010101101.010101010185.8000858001Mar-94

    Apr-9797.068530382497.087378640898.0296049407101.0101010101101.010101010187.4661068836Apr-94

    May-9798.039215686397.087378640899.009900990110010086.6250866251May-94

    Jun-9798.039215686397.087378640899.009900990110010088.3236177354Jun-94

    Jul-97101.071356377697.0873786408101.0305112144117.6470588235117.647058823589.1981090001Jul-94.

    Aug-97106.564364876498.0680592331108.8020890001121.9512195122121.951219512288.3236177354Aug-94.

    Sep-97119.560019129699.0687537151117.8689297501138.8888888889138.888888888989.1981090001Sep-94.

    Oct-97116.713352007599.0687537151115.127791849129.8701298701129.870129870189.1981090001Oct-94104%109%101%101%102%8/1/96

    Nov-97112.7110.2119130.1136.590.0900900901Nov-94104%108%101%101%102%9/1/96

    Dec-97158.4150.9133.1140.1157.3102.3751023751Dec-94104%107%100%100%101%10/1/96

    Jan-98311.8182.9154.9160.8186.8145.3065969195Jan-95104%107%100%100%101%11/1/96

    Feb-98288.9174.8134.5152.3160.1147.68867227885.68Feb-95103%106%100%100%101%

    Mar-98312.7160131.7147143.4173.43021637326.67Mar-95102%105%101%100%100%1/1/97

    Apr-98256.6149.2131144.9137.2163.80964964796.3Apr-95102%103%101%100%99%2/1/97

    May-98319.4150.5134.1148.1136154.96912887325.96May-95101%99%102%100%99%3/1/97

    Jun-98436.8149.9140152.2147.1161.72952711276.22Jun-95101%100%101%100%99%4/1/97

    Jul-98450.6139.8145.7157.4143159.64940457756.14Jul-95100%100%100%100%100%5/1/97

    Aug-98424.4143.3147.5163.2145.5160.9494811626.19Aug-95100%100%100%100%100%6/1/97

    Sep-98361.5147.9133.4165.1141.7163.80964964796.3Sep-9597%100%98%95%85%7/1/97

    Oct-98309.8148.4133.4164.7134.7173.9502470076.69Oct-9592%99%91%90%82%8/1/97

    Nov-987.66Nov-9582%98%84%82%72%9/1/97

    Dec-987.66Dec-9584%98%86%83%77%10/1/97

    Jan-9611/1/97

    Feb-9612/1/97

    1/1/98

    2/1/98

    3/1/98

    4/1/98

    5/1/98

    6/1/98

    7/1/98

    8/1/98

    9/1/98

    10/1/98

    Mexico

    Jan-94100

    Feb-9481.1622433244

    Mar-9485.8000858001

    Apr-9487.4661068836

    May-9486.6250866251

    Jun-9488.3236177354

    Jul-9489.1981090001

    Aug-9488.3236177354

    Sep-9489.1981090001

    Oct-9489.1981090001

    Nov-9490.0900900901

    Dec-94102.3751023751

    Jan-95145.3065969195

    Feb-95147.6886722788

    Mar-95

    Apr-95

    May-95

    Jun-95

    Jul-95

    Aug-95

    Sep-95

    Oct-95

    Sheet1

    1.041.091.011.011.021.11

    1.041.081.011.011.021.11

    1.041.07111.011.05

    1.041.07111.011.03

    1.031.06111.011.04

    1.021.051.01111.02

    1.021.031.0110.991.01

    1.010.991.0210.991.02

    1.0111.0110.991.01

    111111.01

    111111

    0.9710.980.950.850.88

    0.920.990.910.90.820.62

    0.820.980.840.820.720.61

    0.840.980.860.830.77

    ( )

    . 3. (, , 1994. =100%; - , , 1997.= 100%)

    Sheet2

    Bulgaria

    Croatia

    Czech Republic

    Hungary

    Poland

    Romania

    Russia

    Slovakia

    Slovenia

    Ukraine*

    Figure 1. Exchange rates in transition economies (national currencies per $1, January 1997=100%)

    Sheet3

    354313543135431354313543135431

    354623546235462354623546235462

    354903549035490354903549035490

    355213552135521355213552135521

    355513555135551355513555135551

    355823558235582355823558235582

    356123561235612356123561235612

    356433564335643356433564335643

    356743567435674356743567435674

    357043570435704357043570435704

    357353573535735357353573535735

    357653576535765357653576535765

    357963579635796357963579635796

    358273582735827358273582735827

    358553585535855358553585535855

    358863588635886358863588635886

    359163591635916359163591635916

    359473594735947359473594735947

    359773597735977359773597735977

    360083600836008360083600836008

    360393603936039360393603936039

    360693606936069360693606936069

    Indonesia

    Korea

    Malaysia

    Philipines

    Thailand

    Mexico

    Figure 2. Exchange rates in South East Asia (national curren-cies per $1, Jan. 1997 =100%) and in Mexico (Jan.1994 =100%)

  • Macroeconomic stabilisation of 1995-98 High inflation of several hundred and more percent a year in 1992-94during the period immediately following the deregulation of prices on January 2, 1992 In mid 1995 the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) introduced a system of the crawling peg an exchange rate corridor with initially pretty narrow boundaries The program of exchange rate based stabilization: to peg the exchange rate to the dollar and to use it as a nominal anchor for stabilization (prudent monetary policy)Pre-conditions: to contain within reasonable limits the government budget deficit and to find non-inflationary ways of its financing

  • Macroeconomic stabilisation of 1995-98The government stood up to its promises for three long years:No increase in the budget deficitEven though this required drastic expenditure cuts, since the budget revenues, despite all efforts to improve tax collection, continued to fallFinance the deficit mostly through borrowings Selling short-term ruble denominated treasury bills (GKO)Borrowing abroad in hard currency from international financial institutions, Western governments and banks and at the Eurobond market

  • Diagramm1

    10010037.2Dec. 1994Dec. 1994Dec. 1994Dec. 1994Dec. 1994

    23313265.6636363636123.3140.5Dec. 1995Dec. 1995Dec. 1995

    291158.1468.4532692551157.6174.8Dec. 1996Dec. 1996Dec. 1996

    317173.567.9677233429164.76181.96317173.567.9677233429

    Dec. 1998Dec. 1998Dec. 199815120533517670.8068181818

    Dec.1999Dec.1999Dec.199915120535317873.7730337079

    Dec. 2000Dec. 2000Dec. 200015120537518077.5

    &A

    Page &P

    Consumer prices, exchange rate of the dollar (Dec. 1994 = 100%) and the ratio of Russian to US prices (%, bars)

    Proclaimed targets

    Ratio of Russian to US prices,%

    Exchange rate

    Exchange rate

    corridor

    EX-RATE

    Price ratioPr ratio-foreCons pricesExch. rateCons pr-foreExch rate-foreExch rate corridor

    12/199437.2100100

    1/199538.1704347826118115

    2/199538.3716535433131127

    3/199538.0028776978142139

    4/199539.5089655172154145

    5/199543.7492957746167142

    6/199551.3302325581178129

    7/199555.2095238095187126123.3140.5

    8/199557.8666666667196126123.3140.5

    9/199559.578125205128123.3140.5

    10/199562215129123.3140.5

    11/199563.6091603053224131123.3140.5

    12/199565.6636363636233132123.3140.5

    1/199667.8410526316242.55133130.4147.6

    2/199669.219761194249.34134130.4147.6

    3/199670.6331555556256.33135130.4147.6

    4/199670.618261.97138130.4147.6

    5/199670.7225142857266.16140130.4147.6

    6/199670.0686713287269.35143130.4147.6

    7/199669.0493150685271146143.3160.5

    8/199666.984717608271150.5

    9/199666.2281967213271.5152.5

    10/199666.213592233275154.5

    11/199666.5559105431280156.5

    12/199668.4532692551291158.14157.6174.8

    1/199769.285298160

    2/199769.5628482972302161.5

    3/199770.063803681307163

    4/199770.3170731707310164

    5/199770.598540146312164.4

    6/199771.4167679222316164.6316164.6

    7/199771.486746988319166

    8/199771.5128358209322167.5

    9/199771.6485207101325.5169

    10/199771.7818181818329170.5

    11/199771.8046511628332172

    12/199771.8270893372335173.5164.76181.96

    PricesEX-ratePrice ratioCorrCorrPricesExch ratePrice ratio

    Dec. 199410010037.2

    Dec. 199523313265.6636363636123.3140.5

    Dec. 1996291158.1468.4532692551157.6174.8

    Dec. 1997317173.567.9677233429164.76181.96317173.567.9677233429

    Dec. 199815120533517670.8068181818

    Dec.199915120535317873.7730337079

    Dec. 200015120537518077.5

    EX-RATE

    00000000

    00000000

    00000000

    00000000

    00000000

    00000000

    00000000

    00000000

    00000000

    00000000

    00000000

    00000000

    00000000

    00000000

    000


Currency Crises - saurabh.com · Currency Crises Page 2 e Summary The focus of the talk is to discuss Currency Crises - the factors leading to currency crises, the models used to

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Currency crises and contingent liabilities

Currency Crises - frbsf.org · PDF file1 Currency Crises Reuven Glick and Michael Hutchison* September 15, 2011 Abstract: A currency crisis is a speculative attack on the foreign exchange

Currency Crises - frbsf.org · PDF file1 Currency Crises Reuven Glick and Michael Hutchison* September 15, 2011 Abstract: A currency crisis is a speculative attack on the foreign exchange

NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES DEFAULT, CURRENCY … · DEFAULT, CURRENCY CRISES AND SOVEREIGN CREDIT ... Currency Crises and Sovereign Credit Ratings ... be expected to systematically

NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES DEFAULT, CURRENCY … · DEFAULT, CURRENCY CRISES AND SOVEREIGN CREDIT ... Currency Crises and Sovereign Credit Ratings ... be expected to systematically

Currency Substitution, Speculation, and Crises: …web.stanford.edu/~yotopoul/currency/currency.pdfCurrency Substitution, Speculation, and Crises: ... Currency Substitution, Speculation,

Currency Substitution, Speculation, and Crises: …web.stanford.edu/~yotopoul/currency/currency.pdfCurrency Substitution, Speculation, and Crises: ... Currency Substitution, Speculation,

Banking and Currency Crises: Differential Diagnostics for ...

Banking and Currency Crises: Differential Diagnostics for ...

Banking and Currency Crises and Systemic Risk - De

Banking and Currency Crises and Systemic Risk - De

Explaining and Forecasting Currency Crises in Developed ...etheses.lse.ac.uk/1659/1/U164495.pdf · Explaining and Forecasting Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Markets’

Explaining and Forecasting Currency Crises in Developed ...etheses.lse.ac.uk/1659/1/U164495.pdf · Explaining and Forecasting Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Markets’

Are emerging market currency crises predictable? A test

Are emerging market currency crises predictable? A test

Self-Fulfilling Currency Crises: TheRoleofInterestRates · Self-Fulfilling Currency Crises: ... currency crises, ... but exogenously fixed. A currency crisis is then viewed as a

Self-Fulfilling Currency Crises: TheRoleofInterestRates · Self-Fulfilling Currency Crises: ... currency crises, ... but exogenously fixed. A currency crisis is then viewed as a

Coordination, incomplete information and crises. The contagion argument, currency crises, bubbles and crashes.

Coordination, incomplete information and crises. The contagion argument, currency crises, bubbles and crashes.

Banking and Currency Crises How Common Are Twins

Banking and Currency Crises How Common Are Twins

Currency Crises Models

Currency Crises Models

A corporate balance-sheet approach to currency crises

A corporate balance-sheet approach to currency crises

CURRENT ACCOUNT REVERSALS AND CURRENCY CRISES Empirical …razin/mfr.crisnber.pdf · CURRENT ACCOUNT REVERSALS AND CURRENCY CRISES Empirical Regularities* Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti

CURRENT ACCOUNT REVERSALS AND CURRENCY CRISES Empirical …razin/mfr.crisnber.pdf · CURRENT ACCOUNT REVERSALS AND CURRENCY CRISES Empirical Regularities* Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti