Rural Economy Research Centre Population and Settlement Change 1991 – 2006: David Meredith...

Rural Economy Research Centre

Population and Settlement Change 1991 – 2006:

David Meredith

Opportunities for rural development


Overview

Rural Change 1991 - 2006 Population Change Settlement Change

Implications of Population & Settlement Change Demography Human Capital

The Future of Rural Areas Opportunities Challenges


Population Change in the Republic of Ireland

• Population increase of 1,262,933 (42%) since 1926

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000


Population Change in the Republic of Ireland

• 56% of the total population increase since 1926 has occurred after 1991

3,500,000

3,600,000

3,700,000

3,800,000

3,900,000

4,000,000

4,100,000

4,200,000

4,300,000

1991 1996 2002 2006


Ireland’s Changing population distribution 1991 – 2006

Map: Choropleth map 3440

Electoral Divisions Widespread, large-scale

population increases. Accessible areas have

increased most.


Population Loss 1996 - 2006

977 EDs experienced population decline of 108,528 persons

281 EDs in the five cities and parts of Dublin County account for 72% (-78,647) of the total population decline

Rural population decline is predominantly located in less accessible areas.

Urban

Rural


Impact of Population Change on Settlement Patterns 1991 - 2006


Urban Rural

Change in Classified Area (%)

77.46 -1.91

Percentage of Total Area

4.26 95.74

Impact of Population Change on Settlement Patterns 1991 - 2006


Rural Population Change 1991 - 2006

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

2,200,000

2,400,000

2,600,000

1991 1996 2002 2006

Nu

mb

er

of P

ers

on

s

Urban population

Rural Population

Rural Areas

Population 1991

1,638,125

Population 2006

1,779,221

Population Change (%)

9%

Percentage of national population

42%

Growth rate 02 – 06

2.29%


Implications of Population and Settlement Change

Demographic Restructuring

Human Capital


Ireland’s Demographic Structure 1991

Population Pyramid Depict the ‘structure’

or distribution of the population by age and gender

Population is grouped into five year age groups known as cohorts 0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

200000 150000 100000 50000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000

0 -4

5 -9

1 0 -1 4

1 5 -1 9

2 0 -2 4

2 5 -2 9

3 0 -3 4

3 5 -3 9

4 0 -4 4

4 5 -4 9

5 0 -5 4

5 5 -5 9

6 0 -6 4

6 5 -6 9

7 0 -7 4

7 5 -7 9

8 0 -8 4

8 5 +

Female Male


Demographic Structure of the Rural Population: 1991

Demographic Structure of Rural Areas 1991

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

150000 100000 50000 0 50000 100000 150000

Female Male


Demographic Structure of the Rural Population: 2006

Demographic Structure of Rural Areas 2006

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

150000 100000 50000 0 50000 100000 150000

Female Male


Impact of Demographic Restructuring 1991 - 2006


Human Capital

Rural Urban

% of total population with 3rd level degree 1991

38% 62%

% of total population with 3rd level degree 2006

36% 64%


Impact of Population and Settlement Change Contemporary developments represent a clear

break with past trends

Population growth in rural areas is being driven by in migration

Rural population is younger than the recent past.

Age structure of migrants highly significant for the development of rural areas (Human Capital)


The Future of Rural Areas

Opportunities Population Increase

Critical Mass Support for rural

products Support for

infrastructure investment

Support for rural services

Challenges Harnessing human

capital Maintaining quality of

life (Migration)

Rural Economy Research Centre Population and Settlement Change 1991 – 2006: David Meredith...

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