Microsoft PowerPoint - AMD commercialization.pptMargaret Lewis Software Strategy CPG Commercial
Paul Teich Business Strategy CPG Server/Workstation AMD
Session OutlineSession Outline
Riding the Commercialization RapidsRiding the Commercialization Rapids
A Few ExamplesA Few Examples Server and Client ComputersServer and Client Computers InternetInternet
Mapping Current Technology TrendsMapping Current Technology Trends 6464--bit Computingbit Computing MultiMulti--core Processorscore Processors VirtualizationVirtualization
What Have We Learned?What Have We Learned?
Why Model Technology Adoption? Why Model Technology Adoption?
Create a visual representation of market trends Useful for evaluating adoption over a span of time
Gain insights from past adoption cycles Lessons from both successes and failures
Track the progress of emerging technology Respond to changes in adoption patterns
Identify changing marketing dynamics Make corrections to keep on course
Technology Adoption Waterfall Technology Adoption Waterfall
General model that is widely applicable
Must “cross over” at each segment
Not all technologies “ride the rapids” to become mainstream
Commercial
Consumer
CommercializationCommercialization
Technology Adoption Waterfall Technology Adoption Waterfall
Groundbreakers who help Groundbreakers who help to open up a new line of to open up a new line of
technologytechnology Visionaries who are aheadVisionaries who are ahead--
ofof--thethe--curve in their curve in their attitudes and behaviorsattitudes and behaviors
Pragmatists who are more Pragmatists who are more processprocess--oriented but willing oriented but willing to invest in new technology to invest in new technology
Skeptics who have a more Skeptics who have a more negative attitude toward negative attitude toward
technologytechnology
Commercial
Consumer
CommercializationCommercialization
Enthusiasts willing to try new technology Provide valuable first experiences
Early Adopters Can be convinced to try new technology Supply initial success stories
Early Majority Need references and guidance to try new technology Want safety measures to guard against failure
Late Majority Extremely cautious in trying new technology Need proof points to accept product’s value
Technology Adoption Waterfall Technology Adoption Waterfall
ResearchResearch
Innovators Innovators 5%5%
Late Majority Late Majority 45%45%
A Few Examples A Few Examples -- Computers Computers -- ServersServers
Early Early Adopters Adopters
1993 Windows NT1993 Windows NT
1980 1980 -- 85 85 HP PCHP PC IBM PCIBM PC
Compaq PCCompaq PC Dell PCDell PC
1994 Compaq 1994 Compaq ProLiantProLiant
2005 2005 HP HP ProLiantProLiant IBM e seriesIBM e series
1970 UNIX1970 UNIX
20052005 Sun Sun
Apple Apple xSeriesxSeries
HP SpectrumHP Spectrum Sun SPARCSun SPARC
1998 1998 IBM IBM pSeriespSeries
1990 1990 IBM RS/6000IBM RS/60001951 1951
UNIVACUNIVAC 19721972
19641964 IBM 360IBM 360
1981 DOS 1981 DOS 1985 Windows1985 Windows
1994 1994 PCPC
HP IntegrityHP Integrity
A Few Examples A Few Examples -- Computers Computers -- ServersServers
First uses of computers by innovators ENIAC - ballistics firing tables UNIVAC - predict 1952 presidential election
IBM is major driver to commercial acceptance New technologies can opt to start at the top
IBM Power and Itanium systems
Not all technologies survived the waterfall Examples: UNIVAC
Operating systems offer major inflection points UNIX a driver from early adopter to early majority Windows a major influence in driving to late majority
A Few Examples A Few Examples -- Computers Computers -- ClientsClients
Early Early Adopters Adopters
Commodore 64Commodore 64
19731973 HPHP--35 35
1983 1983 LisaLisa
Voodoo RageVoodoo Rage
HP PavilionHP Pavilion
19981998 Apple iMacApple iMac
PhonePhone 1985 Windows 1.01985 Windows 1.0
1980 1980 -- 85 85 Osborne, Compaq Osborne, Compaq
PortablePortable HP, IBM, Dell PCsHP, IBM, Dell PCs
1981 DOS 1.01981 DOS 1.0
A Few Examples A Few Examples -- Computers Computers -- ClientsClients
Innovators were engineers and scientists Initial use was as a hobbyist (DIY) or engineering tool
Form factor has always been a driving force Apple continues move to commercialization with niche market and/or special focus products The influence of a standard operating system (Windows) and open hardware platform (x86) enabled adoption by broader audience Commercialization is based on continued evolution of client in terms of
Form factor Specialized functions
Early Early Adopters Adopters
1969 1969 -- DARPANETDARPANET
1984 1984 -- Domain Name Serve introducedDomain Name Serve introduced 1983 1983 -- TPC/IP becomes protocolTPC/IP becomes protocol
1972 1972 -- ARPANETARPANET 23 host23 host
1990 1990 -- ARPANET decommissionedARPANET decommissioned 1991 1991 -- Gopher search and retrieval toolGopher search and retrieval tool
1991 1991 -- World Wide Web is launchedWorld Wide Web is launched
1993 1993 -- Mosaic graphical browserMosaic graphical browser Commercial providers can sell to individualsCommercial providers can sell to individuals
1994 1994 -- Netscape 1.0 Netscape 1.0 1995 1995 -- First wireless Internet demoFirst wireless Internet demo 1996 1996 -- MSFT Internet ExplorerMSFT Internet Explorer
4 hosts4 hosts
500 hosts 500 hosts
4 million hosts4 million hosts
Feb. 2005 there are 814 million Feb. 2005 there are 814 million users or 12.7% of world populationusers or 12.7% of world population
A Few Examples A Few Examples -- InternetInternet How do you count commercialization - worldwide or developed countries?
12.7% worldwide - but near domination in developed countries
Microsoft Explorer - dominant design emerges Driving acceptance to late majority in developed countries
For worldwide commercialization - internet access needs to get even easier
50 x 15 effort by AMD is an example
Emerging Technology Emerging Technology -- 6464--bit Computingbit Computing
Early Early Adopters Adopters
1995 1995 -- 19971997 UltraSPARCUltraSPARC HP PAHP PA--RISCRISC IBM PowerIBM Power
1992 1992 DEC AlphaDEC Alpha
SGI R4000 (MIPS)SGI R4000 (MIPS)
20032003 AMD64AMD64
20042004 EM64TEM64T
20012001 ItaniumItanium
20042004 Itanium2Itanium2
Apple Apple xSeriesxSeries
Logical evolution in computing Innovators pushing against 32-bit memory limitations
Technical applications, Gaming systems, Graphics, Database
64-bit hardware began to appear in 1990’s RISC successful in pushing to early majority Took 10 years for x86-based processors to catch up
Entering the era of pervasive 64-bit computing Windows x64 major inflection point AMD and Intel shipping 64-bit hardware as mainstream
Adoption based on running a 64-bit OS How well platform runs OS can be differentiating factor
Emerging Technology Emerging Technology -- MultiMulti--CoreCore
Early Early Adopters Adopters
Sun SPARCSun SPARC
AMD Athlon64AMD Athlon64
Emerging Technology Emerging Technology -- MultiMulti--CoreCore
Multi-core RISC, EPIC, and x86-based processors are emerging at the same time
x86-based processors are not the lagging follower
Early in the adoption cycle Initial acceptance is critical to good adoption Performance and software licensing major concerns
Multi-core promises to improve performance and efficiency of multi-threaded environments
RISC systems grew up running a multi-threaded application X86-based systems have learned to expertly juggle multiple single applications
Emerging Technology Emerging Technology -- VirtualizationVirtualization
Early Early Adopters Adopters
Virtual Memory Virtual Memory machinemachine
19601960’’s s IBM virtual IBM virtual
machine systemsmachine systems
static partitioningstatic partitioning
2002 2002 Solaris Solaris
2004 2004 Zen Open Source Zen Open Source
HypervisorHypervisor
Innovators used virtualization to solve resource utilization issues of mainframe environment
IBM made virtual machine standard for their mainframes Sun made partitioning a core component of SPARC/Solaris
As x86-based servers move to commercialization, virtualization technology has began to emerge
Matching feature set of mainframe and RISC Striving for better resource utilization
Microsoft purchased Connectix to integrate virtualization directly into Windows
Following mainframe/RISC approach of tight coupling of OS and hypervisor or resource manager
Call To ActionCall To Action Can you speedCan you speed--up the waterfall?up the waterfall?
Yes, Internet adoption showcases what happens when Yes, Internet adoption showcases what happens when right inflection points hit at the same timeright inflection points hit at the same time
Are there exceptions to the flow?Are there exceptions to the flow? Yes, recently, mass market as tech driver Yes, recently, mass market as tech driver -- certain certain client devices poised for acceptance outside of flowclient devices poised for acceptance outside of flow
Will early adopters continue to strongly influence Will early adopters continue to strongly influence general technology direction?general technology direction?
True in case of 64True in case of 64--bit bit -- already moving from early already moving from early adopters to early majorityadopters to early majority For virtualization For virtualization -- need to see how fast we will move need to see how fast we will move from early adopters to early majorityfrom early adopters to early majority Dual core will be a case to track Dual core will be a case to track
Additional ResourcesAdditional Resources Web Resources:
50 x 15: http://50x15.amd.com/home/default.aspx Internet statistics: http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm Crossing the Chasm: Marketing and Selling High- Tech Products to Mainstream Customers by Geoffrey A. Moore Diffusion of Innovation Theory http://www.ciadvertising.org/studies/student/98_fall/the ory/hornor/paper1.html