Running Hot October 2008
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Ian Foster Computation Institute Argonne National Lab & University of Chicago Research in Paradise
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I gave this talk at a conference for young scientists in New Zealand, "Running Hot": www.runninghot.org.nz. It was a great meeting. My slides are mostly images, so may not make too much sense. Abstract follows: Impressed with the telephone, Arthur Mee predicted in 1898 that if videoconferencing could be developed, ‘earth will be in truth a paradise.’ Since his time, rapid technological change, in particular in telecommunications, has transformed the scientific playing field in ways that while not entirely paradisical, certainly have profound implications for New Zealand scientists. The Internet has abolished distance, as Mee also predicted–a New Zealand scientist can participate as fully in online discussions as anyone else, and their blog can be every bit as influential. Exponential improvements in networks, computing, sensors, and data storage are also profoundly transforming the practice of science in many disciplines. But those seeking to leverage these advances become painfully familiar with the ‘dirty underbelly’ of exponentials: if you don’t constantly innovate, you can fall behind exponentially fast. Such considerations pose big challenges for the individual scientist and for institutions, for researchers and educators, and for research funders. Some of the old ways of researching and educating need to be preserved, others need to be replaced to take advantage of new methods. But what should we preserve? What should we seek to change?
Transcript of Running Hot October 2008
Ian Foster
Computation Institute
Argonne National Lab & University of Chicago
Research in Paradise
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Earth to be paradise;distance to lose enchantment
“If, as it is said to be not unlikely in the near future, the principle of sight is applied to the telephone as well as that of sound, earth will be in truth a paradise, and distance will lose its enchantment by being abolished altogether.”
— Arthur Mee, 1898
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Knowledge arises from experience
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“I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.”
Isaac Newton, 1687
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Computing as a profession
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1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year Introduced
1E+2
1E+5
1E+8
1E+11
1E+14
1E+17
Doubling time = 1.5 yr.
ENIAC (vacuum tubes)UNIVAC
IBM 701IBM 704
IBM 7090 (transistors)
IBM Stretch
CDC 6600 (ICs)
CDC 7600
CDC STAR-100 (vectors) CRAY-1
Cyber 205 X-MP2 (parallel vectors)
CRAY-2X-MP4
Y-MP8
i860 (MPPs)
ASCI White, ASCI Q
Petaflop
Blue Gene/L
Blue Pacific
DeltaCM-5 Paragon
NWT
ASCI Red OptionASCI Red
CP-PACS
Earth
VP2600/10SX-3/44
Red Storm
ILLIAC IV
SX-2
SX-4
SX-5
S-810/20
T3D
T3E
multi-Petaflop
Thunder
Peak performance (floating point ops/sec)
Argonne
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Exponentials are funny things
Obliviousness
Something’shappening
Shock
9Type Ia Supernova: SN 1994D
10Don Lamb et al., FLASH Center, University of Chicago
11Don Lamb et al., FLASH Center, University of Chicago
12Don Lamb et al., FLASH Center, University of Chicago
13Don Lamb et al., FLASH Center, University of Chicago
14Don Lamb et al., FLASH Center, University of Chicago
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System-level science
National Centerfor Atmospheric Research
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The data deluge
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Growth of Genbank
(1982-2005)
Broad Institute
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More data does not always mean more knowledge
Folker Meyer, Genome Sequencing vs. Moore’s Law: Cyber Challenges for the Next Decade, CTWatch, August 2006.
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Proteomics Genomics Transcriptomics Protein sequence prediction Phenotypic studies Phylogeny Sequence analysis Protein structure prediction Protein-protein interaction Metabolomics Model organism collections Systems biology Health epidemiology Organisms Disease ….
1070 molecular bio databases Nucleic Acids Research Jan 2008
(96 in Jan 2001)
Slide: Carole Goble
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The dirty underbelly of exponentials
My relativecapability ifI do nothing
Capabilityat constantinvestment
Log
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The Red Queen’s race
"Well, in our country," said Alice … "you'd generally get to somewhere else — if you run very fast for a long time, as we've been doing.”
"A slow sort of country!" said the Queen. "Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!"
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Kiwi Advanced Research and Education Network
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An American philosopher speaks on the value of KAREN
“80 percent of success is showing up”
Woody Allen
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Services for science
We expose data and software as services …
which others discover, decide to use, …
and compose to create new functions ...
which they publish as new services.
Technical …• Modeling• Authoring• Semantics• Discovery
socio-technical challenges• Incentives• Policy, trust• Reproducibility• Life cycle
“Service-Oriented Science”, Science, 2005
and
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The cancer Biomedical Informatics Grid
Globus
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As of Sept 18, 2008:
122 participants81 services
62 data19 analytical
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As of Oct19, 2008:
122 participants105 services
70 data35 analytical
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Image: Andrey Rzhetsky
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New Ways of Knowing
300 BCE 1700 1950 1990
Empiricism
Data
Theory
Simulation
Multiplied by the power of collaboration … & exponentials
Thank You!
Computation Institutewww.ci.uchicago.edu
