RULE THE MARKET - Karvy Onlinecontent.karvyonline.com/contents/kstreetissue009.pdfThe following...

ISSUE: 009

03RD NOVEMBER, 2018

RULE THE MARKET

From The Desk Of Research HeadCONTENTSEquity 1-6

Derivatives 7-8

Commodity 9-12

Currency 13-14

Events 15

TeamDr. Ravi SinghSyed Hasan JafarAmit SamarAmrita PreetamViplav DhandhukiaSrinivas Krishnan BobbaVaishali ParuthiChetan K WaghrayMurad Bapuji ChinoyPankaj WadhwaniBenjamin FrancisVivek Ranjan Misra

Kiran Shankar Prasad

Yash Bhotika

Munindra Upadhyaya

Veeresh Hiremath

Arpit Chandna

Ravi Pandey

Amit Kumar

Vinod. J

Ramesh Chenchala

Siddhesh Ghare

Bharath Sunnam

Deepak Agarwal

D Jayant Kumar

Karvy Head Office

Karvy Stock Broking Limited, Plot No.31, 6th Floor, Karvy Millennium Towers, Financial District, Nanakramguda, Hyderabad, 500 032, India.

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Samvat 2074 gave fantastic returns to investors and traders for the first quarter until

January 2018. However, the tide changed completely as global headwinds began to weigh

heavily on Indian markets. Issues ranging from tensions between North Korea and the

USA to the ongoing trade war between USA and China, along with a sharp spike in crude

oil prices to the cascading effect of the same coupled with the constantly rising interest

rates in the US, took a toll on the Indian rupee. On the other hand, India had its own set of

problems to deal with, at the same time. Problems ranging from the widening of Current

Account Deficit to lower collection of GST in certain months, from SEBI’s mandate to the

asset management companies to reduce exposure in mid and small-cap stocks to the

rising bond yields in the domestic circuit. If these reasons weren’t enough to tarnish the

overall positive sentiment, a few other issues coupled with the above mentioned major

reasons cropped up and dampened the overall sentiment across the Indian economy.

These factors collectively played a pivotal role in dragging the equity markets to where

they are today.

Technically, the markets have seen a sizable correction across segments, and if the

next monthly supports for Sensex and Nifty are held on a consequential basis, then a

good bounce back towards the 2018 highs may come in. After the recent correction,

Nifty had witnessed very strong support around 10,000-10,050 zone, as good buying

was seen when Nifty was hovering around that range. Going forward, in Samvat 2075,

we expect Nifty to continue with the regained positive momentum and shrug off the

short-term pessimism, which has taken a toll on every market participant in the recent

past. The market is likely to see an up move towards 11,500-11,700 in the medium-term

if this positive momentum continues. However, one must be wary of the fact that the

bullish setup would be negated only if Nifty breaks down below the psychological zone

of 10,000-9900 on a sustainable basis. On the other hand, crucial monthly support levels

for Sensex are pegged around 32,000-31,000, breaking which a sharp selloff may drag

the index much lower. On the flip side, if the index manages to surpass the 35,500 mark

on a comfortable basis, then a retest of the lifetime highs is very likely.

To conclude, we feel that having gone through the dark phase in the recent past, there

is light at the end of the tunnel and we are not far from the said light. Hence, on the

occasion of the festival of lights, we wish our valuable clients a very Happy Diwali and a

prosperous new year – Samvat 2075.

- DR. RAVI SINGHHead-Technical & Derivatives Research

EQUITY

Domestic Economy

• In RBI vs. Government, the Centre has stepped back due to the fear of Governor Urjit Patel quitting: no Section 7 directives have been issued yet.

• RBI purchased Rs. 10,000 cr bonds via Open-Market Operation.• GST Collections crossed Rs. 1 lakh crore in October 2018. • India may impose anti-dumping duty up to USD 207.72 per ton for five years

on a Chinese chemical used in the detergent industry to guard domestic manufacturers from cheap imports from the neighboring country.

• India’s rank in the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business 2019 survey climbed 23 places to 77 among 190 countries surveyed, making it the only country to rank among the top 10 improvers for the second consecutive year.

Railway

• The Railways has revised its tariffs for bulk commodities such as coal, iron ore and steel, which could raise costs for power producers and steel and other user industries.

Automobile

• Tata Motors has reported a healthy 18% YoY growth in October sales to 57,710 units due to the strong sales performance of commercial and passenger vehicles segments in the domestic market.

• Passenger car sales rose marginally in October after declining for three months. The main reason for the propel is the launch of Hyundai’s new Santro compact hatchback.

BFSI

• Reliance Capital has raised long-term financing of Rs. 40 bn. The funds have been raised through securitization of asset pool of the group’s two firms: Reliance Home Finance and Reliance Commercial Finance.

• Fitch Ratings affirmed IDBI Bank’s long-term issuer default rating (IDR) at ‘BB+’ and its viability rating (VR) at ‘ccc’.

Information Technology

• Tata Consultancy Services has acquired London-based digital design studio ‘W12 Studios’. This deal will strengthen the company’s digital and creative design capabilities.

Oil & Gas

• Hindustan Petroleum Corporation will shut its crude unit in Mumbai refinery in January-March 2019 for 10 days. The company will shut down both Mumbai and Vizag refinery in the financial year starting from April 2019 for Euro 6 hookups.

• The Supreme Court suggested Indraprastha Gas to take over the supply of natural gas in Gurugram from Haryana City Gas Distribution Ltd.

Chemical

• Deepak Nitrite commenced operations at its phenol and acetone plant. The plant has the capacity to manufacture 200,000 MTPA of phenol and 120,000 MTPA of its co-product acetone.

Pharma• The Madras High Court granted an interim injunction restraining the online sale

of medicines till Nov 9, a temporary setback for online pharma companies.

• Zydus Cadila launched generic Vardenafil Hydrochloride tablets used for the treatment of erectile dysfunction in the American market.

NEWS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

• The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing PMI in the US fell to 57.7 in October of 2018 from 59.8 in September and below market expectations of 59.

• The IHS Markit Canada Manufacturing PMI decreased to 53.9 in October of 2018 from 54.8 in the previous month.

• OPEC has boosted oil production in October to the highest since 2016, a Reuters survey found, as higher output led by the United Arab Emirates and Libya more than offset a cut in Iranian shipments due to US sanctions.

• US President Donald Trump affirmed he had “very good” talks with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the trade conflict between the two economic giants and meetings were being planned at the G20 Summit at the end of this month.

TREND SHEETSymbol CMP S2 S1 R1 R2 TREND

SENSEX 35011.65 32666 33839 35687 36363 Up

NIFTY 10553 9807 10180 10767 10980 Up

NIFTYBANK 25701.65 23869 24785 26237 26773 Up

ICICIBANK 354.45 317 336 366 377 Up

RELIANCE 1,074.90 1024 1049 1097 1119 Down

YESBANK 209.10 159 184 225 241 Down

HDFCBANK 1,949.45 1853 1901 1981 2013 Down

SBIN 285.35 231 258 303 320 Up

INDUSINDBK 1,541.80 1255 1398 1620 1698 Up

HDFC 1,824.40 1588 1706 1890 1955 Up

AXISBANK 610.65 510 560 640 668 Up

MARUTI 7,135.45 6272 6704 7363 7590 Up

IBULHSGFIN 870.90 630 751 936 1000 Up

FORTHCOMING EVENTSCompany name Result Date

AJMERA REALTY & INFRA INDIA LTD. 5-NOV-18

ANDHRA PETROCHEMICALS LTD. 5-NOV-18

ATUL AUTO LTD. 5-NOV-18

BALKRISHNA INDUSTRIES LTD. 5-NOV-18

CENTURY PLYBOARDS (I) LTD. 5-NOV-18

CIPLA LTD. 5-NOV-18

EVEREADY INDUSTRIES INDIA LTD. 5-NOV-18

EXIDE INDUSTRIES LTD. 5-NOV-18

GAIL (INDIA) LTD. 5-NOV-18

INDRAPRASTHA GAS LTD. 5-NOV-18

INDIA HOME LOAN LTD. 5-NOV-18

MINDA INDUSTRIES LTD. 5-NOV-18

ADITYA BIRLA CAPITAL LTD 6-NOV-18

AUTOMOTIVE AXLES LTD. 6-NOV-18

GRAPHITE INDIA LTD. 6-NOV-18

DR. LAL PATHLABS LTD 6-NOV-18

MANAPPURAM FINANCE LTD. 6-NOV-18

KSTREET - 03RD NOVEMBER 2018 1

INDIAN INDICES (% CHANGE)

GLOBAL INDICES (% CHANGE)

NIFTY MIDCAP100TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (1W)

SECTORAL INDICES (% CHANGE)

FII/FPI & DII TRADING (IN RS. CRORES)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (1W)

EQUITY

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NIFTY INDEX SENSEX INDEX

SPBSMIP INDEX

SPBSSIP INDEX

NIFTYJR INDEX

NSEMCAP INDEX

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/2018

10/31/20

18

11/1/2018

FII/FPI DII


BEAT THE STREET - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Yes BankLimitedCMP Rs.209Target Price Rs.410Upside 96.2%

Investment Rationale

• The NIMs were stable QoQ at 3.3%, notwithstanding high capital consumption as against our expectation of a sequential decline.

• Gross Slippage escalated sharply for the quarter at Rs. 16.3 bn led by one large corporate account defaulting amounting to Rs. 6.3 bn.

• Bank has exposure to IL&FS amounting to 26.2 bn which is currently recognized as a standard account in the books.

• With lower Cet1, balance sheet growth will have to prune down considerably. (Estimate credit growth of around 20%)

• With management change, capital raising can be very difficult for the bank.

• The loan growth for the quarter was quite strong at 12%/61% QoQ/YoY. The same was led by the branch banking, 9.5%/57% QoQ/YoY and corporate banking, 12.6%/63% QoQ/YoY.

• Near term headwinds on the bank remains in terms of management change, higher credit cost, lower capital position which could upside in the stock.

VALUE PARAMETERSFace Value (Rs.) 2.0

52 Week High/Low (Rs.) 404/165

M.Cap (Rs. Bn/US $mn) 471.6/6503

EPS (Rs.) 18.0

P/E Ratio (times) (FY20E) 7.8

Dividend Yield (%) 1

Stock Exchange BSE

% OF SHARE HOLDING

in Rs.Mn ACTUAL ESTIMATE

YE Mar FY 18 FY 19 FY 20

Net Income 77371 99294 113656

Net Profit 42246 43745 58762

EPS 18.0 19.0 26.0

BVPS 112 130 154

P/E(x) 10.8 10.4 7.8

RoE(%) 17.7 15.7 18.0

RoA(%) 1.7 1.3 1.4

P/E CHARTValuation

We maintain BUY on the stock with the Target Price of Rs. 410 valuing the stock at 2.67x FY20E P/B.

EQUITY


BEAT THE STREET - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

KRBL LimitedCMP Rs.335Target Price Rs.427Upside 27.5%

Investment Rationale

• KRBL Limited has reported a strong set of operating numbers during Q2FY19, wherein it’s Sales, EBITDA, PAT and EPS have grown by 74.0%, 25.4%, 52.2% and 52.2%, respectively, on YoY basis.

• Average realization for basmati rice in the domestic market at Rs. 52171/MTs grew by 7.0% on YoY basis, whereas the same in export market at Rs.76698/MTs grew by 8.2% on YoY basis.

• Agri-business at Rs. 11940 Mn grew 76.6% on YoY basis, whereas Energy business of Rs. 691 Mn grew by 32.7% on YoY basis.

• Domestic Agri-business at Rs. 5582 Mn grew by 46.9%, whereas export business grew by 114.6% on YoY basis.

• Domestic demand for basmati rice would continue to grow amidst change in lifestyle and increase in income level.

• Export market, especially, in the middle east constitutes to about 70% of total basmati rice import from India and has basmati rice as staple food, would continue to drive export volume.

VALUE PARAMETERSFace Value (Rs.) 1.0

52 Week High/Low (Rs.) 675/296

M.Cap (Rs. Bn/US $mn) 79.5/1.1

EPS (Rs.) 24.2

P/E Ratio (times) (FY20E) 14.2

Dividend Yield (%) 0.7

Stock Exchange NSE/BSE

Valuation

KRBL Limited being the largest basmati rice exporter, having established the brand name and robust selling & distribution network, strong presence in Middle-East and strong financial profile is well positioned to emerging opportunities in basmati rice business. We value the stock at 1 S.D. of 1 yr fwd PE 17.6X of FY20E EPS for TP of Rs. 427 with potential upside of 27.5%. However, the downside risk to valuation could be Saudi Arabia curtailing on import on pesticide ground and government’s pricing policies..

EQUITY

% OF SHARE HOLDING

in Rs.Mn ACTUAL ESTIMATE

YE Mar FY 18 FY 19 FY 20

REVENUE 18895 20323 20984

EBITDA 3634 4281 4458

EBITDA(%) 19.2 21.1 21.2

PAT 1336 1615 1659

EPS (Rs.) 5.9 7.1 7.3

RoE (%) 13.2 15.1 14.5

PE (x) 24.1 18.2 17.7

P/E CHART


EQUITY

BEAT THE STREET - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

KEC International Limited

KEC International Limited is India’s second largest manufacturer of electric power transmission towers and one of the largest Power Transmission Engineering, Procurement & Construction companies in the world. KEC has rallied from 108.7 levels in November 2016 to 443.4 levels in April 2018 and corrected from there to 240 levels, which is around 61.8 % of the said rally and bounced back, indicating the end of the correction. The stock has given falling trend line breakout during the phase, indicating a fresh leg of the rally from these levels. Adding to it, the Parabolic SAR and Heiken candlesticks are signaling positive trend on the weekly charts, reflecting the stock is well placed to move higher in the coming days. The 14 periods RSI is trading above the 9-period averages in the daily as well as weekly chart, indicating a positive momentum. The stock is trading well above all of its major long-term exponential moving averages on weekly charts, indicating a strong positive momentum in the counter for all major timeframes. On Bollinger bands, the daily chart stock has tested the upper bands and the bands are expanding, indicating a positive momentum. At the current levels, the stock has given an excellent opportunity for medium to long-term investors to accumulate the stock around 300 levels for the potential upside targets of 380-390 levels over the next 6-9 months, keeping a stop loss below 240 levels.

TITAN Company limited

TITAN Company limited is an Indian luxury goods’ company. It is a joint venture between the TATA group and the Tamil Nadu Industrial Development Corporation (TIDCO). Technically, the stock is making higher highs from the last couple of trading sessions, which placed the stock above its major moving averages on the daily chart with a positive price structure, indicating the positive momentum in the stock is likely to continue and the stock may move higher towards 1040-1070 levels in the medium -term. On the momentum setup, 14-period daily RSI is trading above its 9-day signal line on the daily chart and the stock has given a positive crossover to the signal line on the weekly chart, reconfirming the positive view in the counter. The Parabolic SAR (Stop & Reverse) is comfortably trading below the price on the daily chart, which reflects buying will remain intact in the counter in the near-term. The MACD is trading above the signal line in buy territory on the daily chart, suggesting strength in up move. From the above observation, we recommend medium to long-term investor to go long in the counter around 860 levels and any dips towards 780 levels can be used to accumulate the stock with the stop loss placed below 720 levels on closing basis for the projected target of 1040 levels followed by 1070 levels in the next 9-12 months.

Stock KEC

CMP 304.4

Action BUY

Entry 300

Average 260

Stop loss 240

Target 380

Target 2 390

Time Frame 6-9 Months

Stock TITAN

CMP 871

Action BUY

Entry 860

Average 780

Stop loss 720

Target 1040

Target 2 1070

Time Frame 6-9 Months


EQUITY

Sentiment

Stop Loss 228

Target 195

Lot Size 2250

Margin 84000

21-DEMA 220

Open Interest Shares 7548750

Change in OI -893250

Cost of Carry (%) 4.51

SECTORAL SNIPPETS

NIFTY BANK (25,701.65) ended the week with healthy gains of more than 5%, concluding around 25,700 levels. The banking index witnessed a dream run in the last few days led by fresh buying and major short covering rally which concluded the price above the crucial psychological mark of 25,500 level. The index witnessed all-round buying from the start of the week led by both private and public sector banks in large. The index formed a bullish weekly candle mostly conquering the prior week’s weakness. The index took support around the crucial levels of 24,400-245,00 on the lower side and gave smart pullback above 25,500 levels. The immediate support for the index is pegged around 25,400 followed by 25,000 level, while the psychological mark of 26,000 level may be the next major hurdle in the near term. On the stock specific front, ICICIBANK witnessed good outperformance in comparison with its peers in the last week followed by AXISBANK and INDUSINDBK. The ongoing uptrend in the banking stocks may intensify further if the Index sustains above Friday’s highs, surpassing which medium-term swing high of 26,000 odd level can be tested in the coming week. Technically, BANKNIFTY is having crucial supports around 25,500 levels on the lower side where the good concentration of OI is placed in the put series followed by 25,300, while 26,000 may act as the immediate hurdle for the Index.

NIFTY IT (14,396.70) traded with a mixed to positive bias, gained nearly 4.41%, whereas NIFTY gained nearly 5.26% on the weekly closing basis. On the stock specific front, many stocks managed to outperform, while few others succumbed to selling pressure; INFIBEAM 26.88%, TATAELXSI 8.29%, TCS 6.3%, TECHM 5.93%, INFY 4.64%, MINDTREE 4.19%, HCLTECH 3.90% & OFSS 0.28% managed to close in positive territory, while WIPRO -0.64% & KPIT -4.27% has underperformed in the last week. NIFTYIT Index after making a swing low near 13,696 witnessed a sharp rebound in the last couple of sessions. Technically, in the start of the week, Index made a swing low of 13,696 where it found support from its major 200-DEMA, which is currently placed near 13,962 levels and recovered swiftly during the week. Currently, it holds above the 200-DEMA, while holding marginally below its 21 & 50-DEMA. On the momentum setup 14-period RSI on the daily timeframe after testing oversold territory, recovered and managed to climb towards equilibrium levels, exhibiting buying interest in the counter. On the downside, Index has immediate support near 14,000 levels followed by 13,700 levels, while on the higher side 14,750-14,800 will work as an immediate resistance followed by 15,190. Going forward Index on sustaining above 14,200 is likely to trade with mixed to positive bias. And the broader trading range for the Index would be 14,000-15,000 for the coming few sessions.

NIFTY FMCG (28,836.80) closed in green with 3 % underperformance as compared to the Benchmark index Nifty which closed in green with a gain around 5.2 % on a weekly basis. Technically, the index is holding above 21/100/200 day EMA levels in the daily chart. The 14 day RSI is trading @ 50.59 above its 9-period averages @43.85, suggesting positive crossover in the index. Heiken candlesticks suggest the positive trend in the index. On daily charts, the index has succeeded to sustain above the mean and moving towards upper band in Bollinger bands, indicating positive momentum. Among the index stocks, MCDOWELL-N was leading the league with around 18% gains. MARICO, PGHH, UB, BRITANNIA, EMAMILTD, GODREJIND, GSKONS, HINDUNILVR, ITC & JUBLFOOD closed in green while DABUR & GODREJCP were closed in red. Going forward, the supports for the index are placed around 27,519 levels and below it at 26,889 zone, any breach below the level could aggravate selling pressure in the counter, while resistance is placed around 29,335 levels and above that around 30,030 levels, suggesting the possibility of huge supply at these levels.

NIFTY AUTO (9180.20) ended the week with healthy gains of almost 7%, concluding around 9177 levels. The index has broken the major resistance levels of 8800 level in the last week and is trading well above the major short-term moving averages on the daily charts. The index has an unfilled gap around 9300-9350 levels on the daily charts which may act as a stiff resistance for the price in the coming week. The current structure of the index looks bullish in all the timeframes with crucial support placed around 8800 levels which is the recent swing bottom. Technically, the Index has witnessed a strong rally from 6859 levels to 12,108 levels on monthly charts and thereafter witnessed a round of correction which dragged the price towards its 61.80% (Golden ratio) Fibonacci retracement level of the said rally. On oscillator front, the 14-period RSI is trading above its 9-day signal line and poised with a strong bias after the recent run-up in the index price. Going forward, the supports for the index are placed around 8800-8850 levels followed by 8600 levels, whereas on the upside, resistance is placed around 9300-9350 levels followed by 9500 levels. For the near term, the index is expected to consolidate in the range of 9100-9350 levels with bullish bias coupled with stock specific action among the individual index stocks. MARUTI & AMARAJABAT is expected to outperform its peers in the near term after the strong Friday’s up move in the stocks.

HINDUSTAN UNILEVER LTD: BUY HINDUNILVR (NOV FUTURE) | CMP: 1638.45 SECTOR: FMCG

HINDUNILVR traded the week with a positive bias. The stock has closed with a positive return of more than 5% and outperformed its benchmark index NIFTYFMCG which closed with a positive return of 3% during the last week. Adding to that, the stock is trading well above its major moving averages on the daily chart with a positive price structure, indicating positive momentum in the stock is likely to continue in the coming trading sessions as well. On oscillator front, the 14 period RSI is trading above its 9-day signal line and poised with bullish bias, indicating that stock is likely to continue its outperformance in the coming trading sessions as well. The Parabolic SAR (Stop & Reverse) on the daily chart is trading below the price, which reflects uptrend in the stock is likely to continue. From the above observation of price momentum, it seems the stock is likely to trade with negative bias in the coming trading sessions also. Therefore, we recommend Smart Traders to initiate a long position in the counter around 1630 levels with a stop loss placed below 1580 for the higher target of 1705 levels.

Sentiment

Stop Loss 1580

Target 1705

Lot Size 600

Margin 161000

21-DEMA 1581

Open Interest Shares 7839600

Change in OI -49200

Cost of Carry (%) 0.25

KPIT TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED: SELL KPIT (NOV FUTURE) | CMP: 210.50 SECTOR: IT

KPIT lost nearly 4.3% for the week underperforming NIFTYIT index which gained approximately 4.4%. The stock was unable to hold onto its recent up-move from its swing support near 187 levels and faced selling pressure near its 21 DEMA placed near 220 levels. The stock has seen short accumulation in the last trading session and is now placed below its short to medium term moving averages on the daily as well as weekly chart, suggesting likely weakness in the counter. On the momentum oscillator front, the 14 period RSI is placed below the 9-period signal line on the weekly charts and the stock has given a negative cross-over to the signal line on the daily chart which reaffirms the negative view in this counter. The stock is consistently trading near the lower band of the Bollinger band (20,2) on the weekly charts and the band is expanding, indicating weakness in the stock in the near-term. Hence, we suggest smart traders to short this counter on bounce towards 215 levels for the target of 195 levels with a stop loss placed above 228 levels.


WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

NIFTY (10,553): Last week, broader markets witnessed a huge round of short covering from lower levels as global markets bounced back strongly due to various reasons. Nifty and Sensex gained more than 5% during the week gone by, ahead of the upcoming week, which is a truncated one, due to holidays on the occasion of Diwali.

Technically, Nifty has seen a tremendous short covering move from its recent lows as trade tensions have eased between China and US, Crude oil has witnessed a sharp selloff and also the weakening of the rupee has cooled down a bit. The overall sentiment has changed ahead of the festival due to the reasons mentioned above.

However, the markets may turn fragile if the immediate weekly supports around 10,400-10,380 are broken on a sustainable basis. In the event of such a breakdown, the next supports can be seen around 10,300-10,250. Whereas on the upside, if the Nifty manages to surpass the upper end of the current trading range of 10,700 then a good round of buying towards 10,800-10,900 may also come in.

It is imperative to bear in mind that the volatility is still pretty high. The overall ATR of the indices and stocks have widened, which exposes us to unforeseen risks and possibility of a sharp throwback if market participants panic during the next three trading sessions during the week.

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

Type: CALL LADDER IN NIFTY

First leg Buy one lot of NIFTY 29 NOV 10600 CE @ 168.00

Second leg Sell one lot of NIFTY 29 NOV 10800 CE @ 79.00

Third leg Sell one lot of NIFTY 29 NOV 10900 CE @ 49.00

Max Profit 12,000

UBEP 11060

LBEP 10640

Stg. Out Flow 3000

Max Loss Unlimited above UBEP

Stop loss UBEP

Rationale The index is expected to trade with a bullish bias in the near-term.

DERIVATIVES

Type: BULL CALL IN BANKNIFTY

First leg Buy one lot of BANK NIFTY 06 NOV 25700 CE @ 163

Second leg Sell one lot of BANK NIFTY 06 NOV 25900 CE @ 86

Max Profit 2460

Max Loss 1540

BEP 25776

Rationale The index is expected to trade with a bullish bias in the near-term.

Type: Bull call spread in IGL

First leg Buy one lot of IGL Nov 280 CE @ 14.50

Second leg Sell one lot of IGL Nov 300 CE @ 6.5

BEP 288

Max Profit 33,000

Max Loss 22,000

Rationale The stock is in a short-term uptrend and is likely to scale towards 295-300 levels in near-term.

Type: Bear Put Spread in AXISBANK

First leg Buy one lot of AXISBANK NOV 520 PE @ 22.50

Second leg Sell one lot of AXISBANK NOV 500 PE @ 16

BEP 513.50

Max Profit 16,200

Max Loss 7,800

Stop loss 570 (Spot levels)

Rationale The stock has encountered resistance around 335 levels and is headed towards 305-300 levels in the near-term. Hence, a bearish strategy is recommended.

7KSTREET - 03RD NOVEMBER 2018

DERIVATIVES

FII’S ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURES FII’S ACTIVITY IN STOCK FUTURES

TOP 6 LONG BUILD UP

Stock Name LTP % Price Change Open Int % OI Change

IGL 281.85 12.54 4086500 97.61

VOLTAS 548.5 8.20 6247000 73.00

CUMMINSIND 768.3 14.36 1171800 64.12

AMBUJACEM 204.05 7.14 17252500 56.84

DIVISLAB 1499.25 19.39 3272000 40.21

JUSTDIAL 490.75 12.34 2872800 40.07

BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (WEEKLY) CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (WEEKLY)

TOP 6 SHORT CLOSURE


NESTLEIND 10229.65 6.90 336100 -24.69

REPCOHOME 404.95 22.23 525600 -21.51

TATAELXSI 1047.3 8.29 1171600 -21.37

INDIANB 248.45 11.76 3896000 -18.53

BEL 95 7.65 22174500 -16.56

UJJIVAN 216.85 19.81 3852800 -16.48

TOP 6 SHORT BUILD UP


COALINDIA 261.55 -6.95 27814600 91.53

MOTHERSUMI 172.5 -23.66 23094150 50.20

INFRATEL 262.3 -1.02 6545000 24.68

HDFCBANK 1949.45 -0.60 16727250 23.61

KOTAKBANK 1133.2 -2.19 12500800 13.47

LUPIN 849.9 -0.61 9063600 11.04

TOP 6 LONG CLOSURE


MCX 705.95 -2.55 3346700 -14.72

KPIT 209.8 -4.11 7548750 -10.58

WIPRO 318.4 -0.69 28941600 -1.82

IDBI 59.15 -0.50 38430000 -0.98

HINDZINC 264.05 -4.88 7052800 -0.36

0 0 0.00 0 0.00

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI


COMMODITIES

BULLIONGold futures were under pressure for the majority of the week ended on 2nd November 2018 driven by a surge in the dollar index. Dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against 6 major currencies, surged to 17-month high on prospects of the interest rate hike. US Federal Reserve is having its next and last meeting of the year on 7-8 November 2018, wherein it is likely to increase the interest rate by 25 basis points. Gold futures on COMEX and MCX ended the October month with positive gains after witnessing six consecutive months of losses till September. In October, COMEX gold futures recovered from a yearly low of $1162.70 per troy ounce to trade near $1250 per troy ounce. Sell off in the global equity market emerged from global economic uncertainties attracted to gold as a safe investment. During the week, major economic releases from the US were from the labor market in the form of weekly jobless claims, ADP Non-Farm Payrolls, Non-Farm Payroll and unemployment data. During October, non-farm payroll in the US rose by 250K against the previous reading of 118K increase and the unemployment rate remained the same at 3.7%. However, on the first trading day of November, gold futures staged a strong rally eroding the losses it had witnessed during the first part of the week as the dollar eased from 17-month highs.

BASE METALSBase metals segment traded in a mixed bias with initial neutral trend followed by a negative trend tracking the pressures from the US-China trade wars. Towards the last trading day, prices witnessed a pullback with easing trade tensions. The weakening in the dollar made the dollar related metals cheaper; however, the rise in short positions capped the price rise. LME Copper faced huge pressures from the economic front, because of raised concerns for demand from the top metal consumer China, after the US considered imposing tariffs on additional $257 billion goods. Aluminium prices fell initially weighed by the uncertainties over US sanctions against Rusal, while trade relations between the US and Russia remain tense after the US backed out of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty earlier last week. Meanwhile, global production for Jan-Sep 2018 totaled 48.022 million tons, a year-on-year rise of 0.3% from 47.86 million tons last year. This despite a fall in production from smelters in China, as the total for the first nine months of the year from Chinese producers fell by 0.7% year-on-year from 27.38 million tons to 27.17 million tons. The steel linked metal Zinc’s cash-3M spread meanwhile remained at a premium of USD 68 compared to around USD 57-58 per ton last week, also signaling nearby tight supply. LME lead finished 0.9% lower at USD 1,939 per ton, its weakest since Oct. 11, after a surge in inventories. LME on-warrant stocks jumped 30% overnight to 83,625 tons indicating higher material available for delivery, thus putting pressure on prices.

ENERGY COMPLEXCrude oil prices fell tremendously around 13% from the 4 years high it had reached in the previous month, whereas on a weekly basis WTI contract at NYMEX has fallen almost 6%. Similarly, Brent crude went down by more than 11% since the beginning of October. The major reasons for the weakness in prices were the release of production data from Russia which showed that country produced 11.41 million bpd of crude oil in October month which is at 30 year high levels. Also, OPEC’s October production stood at 33.31 million bpd, highest since 2016. Competing with OPEC group, US, an emerging crude oil producer, also added more than 11 million bpd as to compete with major rival Russia. Separately, as a bit relief to the prices would be the waiver from the US for the Iranian crude buyers such as South Korea, Japan and India but the period for waiver is not yet defined. Although the waiver by the US is granted, Iranian crude supplies are likely to decrease by 1.15 million bpd by the end of the year from mid-2018. The outlook for the prices in broader period is expected to remain pressurized as US new pipeline project’s beginning would bring in the Permian (Shale oil) crude supplies to the market, which could again cast the shadow of oversupply in the global markets. In the upcoming week, prices are expected to take cues from the crude oil inventory levels in the US storage, count of active US rigs and release of official orders related to Iran’s oil trade.

OILS & OILSEEDSSoybean futures are expected to trade sideways to higher in anticipation of shrinking arrivals at key trading centers. Daily arrivals are expected to remain weaker in the upcoming week due to Diwali festival, which could restrict major fall in the prices. Daily arrivals of soybean have been hovering in the range of 12-14 lakh bags wherein spot prices are ruling in range of Rs. 3200- 3350 per quintal at key trading centers. Arrivals are expected to improve post-Diwali and could pull down the prices at futures as well as at physical market. The government has released its production forecast for the year 2018-19 and pegged total soybean production at 134.59 lakh tons against the 109.81 lakh tons of prior year, higher by 23% YoY. Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA) estimated soybean production for the year 2018-19 at 114.8 lakh tons against the 83.5 lakh tons of prior year. At global front, USDA estimated soybean production in the US for the year 2018-19 at 127.63 million tons and kept its production forecast unchanged for Brazil and Argentina at 120.5 million tons and 57 million tons respectively. Similarly, RM seed futures could fall further on slack the domestic demand amid reports of impressive sowing progress in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. Selling of mustard seed stocks by NAFED below MSP level is likely to keep prices under pressure. About 27.84 lakh hectares of the area was sown under mustard seed across India till 2nd Nov against the 26.57 lakh hectares of the prior year, higher by 4.8% YoY. Likewise, CPO and Soy refine oil futures could trade sideways to lower due to the higher production outlook. Moreover, strengthening the value of Indian currency against US dollar could restrict major gains in prices.

COTTONDomestic cotton futures are expected to trade in a limited range due to the festive mood of the market. The physical market is likely to remain closed for the most part of the week due to Diwali festival; thereby supply could be lower compared to normal. Daily arrivals are ruling in the range of 1.2 lakh bales to 1.5 lakh bales as of now which may shrink in the upcoming week. Similarly, industrial demand for cotton is expected to remain slack and could keep prices steady. However, arrivals are expected to improve post-Diwali and could pull down the prices at futures as well as a physical market. At global front, signs of easing trade tension between the US and China and slower pace of harvesting activities in the US could support ICE cotton prices further. About 44% of the cotton crop planted in the year 2018-19 has been harvested till 28th Oct against the 45% of corresponding period of prior year and 43% of five-year average as per the USDA weekly crop progress report. USDA rated 35% of the crop is under good to excellent condition till 28th Oct against the 36% of the prior week and 55% of the five-year average. Meanwhile, USDA trimmed estimates for world cotton production for the year 2018-19 at 121.66 million bales of 480 lbs each against the 121.97 million bales of prior month due to lower production in Australia. The production forecast for India remained unchanged at 28.7 million bales (368 lakh bales of 170 kg each), wherein US cotton production was raised from 19.68 million bales to 19.76 million bales. USDA projected global cotton consumption for the year 2018-19 at 127.76 million bales. USDA revised its projection for global ending stocks downwardly from 77.46 million bales to 74.45 million bales due to fall in inventory levels in India.


ALUMINIUM

As on 2nd November 2018, LME Aluminium 3M forwards are trading around $1990/MT. Prices have started rebounding after taking support around $1955 level, which is the long-term rising trend line. At present, prices are trading below the weekly 8, 21 EMA resistance levels $2030, 2050. The momentum indicator RSI-14 is treading around 35, near the oversold zone. The Fibonacci retracement is providing support around $1924(61.8%) and resistance at $2076(50%) of the range $2719-1434. Overall the commodity is expected to trade within an arrange of $1920-2050 on positive bias in the coming week.

ZINC

As on 2nd November 2018, Zinc 3M forwards are trading around $2550/MTat the LME platform. In the mentioned price chart, it is visible that price has completed wave five impulsive structure and now corrective wave A is in progress in five structure. In the current week, prices had rebounded after touching the $2470, which might be considered as a corrective wave B of intermediate wave 4. Thus, from the current levels, the prices are expected to move higher to complete wave C of 4 above the falling trend line and previous top of 2670 levels. The Fibonacci retracement is providing supports around 2504-2517 levels (50,23%). Overall the commodity is expected to be remaining in the range of 2450-2650 on a positive bias in the coming week.

SILVER

As on 2nd November 2018, Silver December contract delivery futures at the COMEX platform are trading around $14.79/ounce. In the mentioned chart it is visible that prices are trading above the 8, 13 EMA support levels. The momentum indicator RSI-14 is trading at an equilibrium point, providing no major clues. In the bigger scenario, the commodity is trading within a confined range of $13.96-14.96. The Fibonacci retracement is providing immediate resistance at 14.87 then at 15.39 which are 23.6% and 38.2% of the range 14.01 to 17.02. Lower side supports at $14.60/14.38.

COMMODITIES

TREND SHEET

Commodities 19-Oct 26-Oct % Change 52 Week High% Change from 52

Week High52 Week Low

% Change from 52 Week Low

MCX Gold (Rs/10 gms) 31902.00 32136.00 0.7% 32311.00 -0.54% 28055.00 14.55%

MCX Silver (Rs/Kg) 38796.00 38925.00 0.3% 41698.00 -6.65% 36000.00 8.13%

MCX Crude Oil (Rs/bbl) 5087.00 4949.00 -2.7% 5669.00 -12.70% 3372.00 46.77%

MCX Natural Gas (Rs/mmBtu) 238.30 231.30 -2.9% 250.80 -7.78% 162.50 42.34%

MCX Copper (Rs/kg) 453.00 444.30 -1.9% 493.25 -9.92% 402.55 10.37%

MCX Lead (Rs/kg) 145.90 145.95 0.0% 172.50 -15.39% 137.25 6.34%

MCX Zinc (Rs/kg) 196.60 198.05 0.7% 232.70 -14.89% 163.80 20.91%

MCX Nickel (Rs/kg) 914.30 867.80 -5.1% 1095.20 -20.76% 692.80 25.26%

MCX Aluminium (Rs/kg) 147.95 145.05 -2.0% 178.85 -18.90% 128.30 13.06%

NCDEX Soybean (Rs/Quintal) 3246.00 3259.00 0.4% 3895.00 -16.33% 2754.00 18.34%

NCDEX Refined Soy Oil (Rs/10 kg) 765.60 752.00 -1.8% 796.35 -5.57% 672.80 11.77%

NCDEX RM Seed (Rs/Quintal) 4173.00 4176.00 0.1% 4262.00 -2.02% 3727.00 12.05%

MCX CPO (Rs/10 kg) 589.80 567.00 -3.9% 673.00 -15.75% 538.20 5.35%

NCDEX Castor Seed (Rs/Quintal) 5266.00 5466.00 3.8% 5538.00 -1.30% 3831.00 42.68%

NCDEX Turmeric (Rs/Quintal) 6560.00 6670.00 1.7% 8066.00 -17.31% 6316.00 5.60%

NCDEX Jeera (Rs/Quintal) 20365.00 19590.00 -3.8% 22360.00 -12.39% 14010.00 39.83%

NCDEX Dhaniya (Rs/Quintal) 5646.00 5787.00 2.5% 6021.00 -3.89% 4186.00 38.25%

MCX Cardamom (Rs/kg) 1424.50 1422.00 -0.2% 1458.30 -2.49% 818.50 73.73%

NCDEX Wheat (Rs/Quintal) 2044.00 2031.00 -0.6% 2074.00 -2.07% 1575.00 28.95%

NCDEX Guar Seed (Rs/Quintal) 4544.50 4696.50 3.3% 4784.00 -1.83% 3465.00 35.54%

NCDEX Guar Gum (Rs/Quintal) 9806.00 10272.00 4.8% 10510.00 -2.26% 7200.00 42.67%

MCX Cotton (Rs/Bale) 22780.00 23110.00 1.4% 24280.00 -4.82% 18180.00 27.12%

NCDEX Cocud (Rs/Quintal) 1797.00 1873.50 4.3% 1898.00 -1.29% 1166.00 60.68%

NCDEX Kapas (Rs/20 kg) 868.00 868.00 0.0% 1010.00 -14.06% 854.00 1.64%

MCX Mentha Oil (Rs/kg) 1702.30 1784.50 4.8% 1991.90 -10.41% 1106.00 61.35%

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS


COMMODITIES

NEWS DIGEST

• Bangladesh and India will sign a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to ease the import of sugar from India. Bangladesh agreed to withdraw the 40% duty on sugar imports from India. The decision for duty withdrawal was taken at a meeting between Commerce Minister Tofail Ahmed and Indian Food and Public Distribution Secretary Ravi Kant at Ahmed’s secretariat office in Dhaka.

• Indian natural Rubber producers will have to wait for a few more years to get better prices for natural Rubber as the current demand-supply fundamentals along with other factors do not favor a recovery in prices during 2019. Northeast Monsoon 2018 has been playing hide and seek with the country ever since the beginning of the October. Right from the probabilities of making the earliest onset, it is now heading towards most delayed onset.

• The US government has agreed to let eight countries, including close allies South Korea and Japan, as well as India, keep buying Iranian oil after it reimposes sanctions on Tehran from next week, Bloomberg reported on Friday, citing a US official. Iran’s biggest oil customers - all in Asia - have been seeking sanctions waivers to allow them to buy some of its oil.

• Silver prices were lower by Rs 171 to Rs 38,640 per kg in futures trade after speculators cut down their holdings amid a weak trend overseas. Silver for delivery in November was down by Rs 171, or 0.44%, to Rs 38,640 per kg at the Multi Commodity Exchange. It clocked a business volume of 1,568 lots.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

• The largest US aluminum and steel producers, companies that were supposed to benefit from tariffs, have all lost value this year. Shares of every major US steel and aluminum producer are down for the year, while Century Aluminum Co. and Alcoa Corp., the country’s two biggest aluminum makers, had the worst October since 2008. It was the biggest October drop since 2009 for US Steel Corp., which reports quarterly earnings Thursday afternoon. The sell-off last month outpaced a broader market slump in the worst month for global equities in more than six years. Global aluminum production growth has ground to a halt this year. Cumulative production grew by just 0.3% in the first nine months, the slowest rate of expansion since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008-2009.

• Palm oil prices are expected to improve in 2019 on higher exports because of rising demand and while production will rise on better fresh fruit bunch yields compared to this year, the Malaysian government forecast on Friday. Prices are expected to average 2,400 ringgit ($575.19) per ton next year versus 2,300 ringgit this year, according to an economic outlook report released on Friday. Full-year production for 2018 is expected to slightly decline to 19.8 million tons from last year’s 19.9 million tons on lower fresh fruit bunch yield. However, output in 2019 is expected to rise to 20.5 million tons, helped by an increase in areas with mature palm trees.

• Crude oil prices continued to fall in the meanwhile, suffering the fourth consecutive daily loss. Global oversupply worries continued to drive selling pressure. Bloomberg tanker-tracking and survey data showed that OPEC output climbed to the highest level since 2016 as Saudi Arabia and Libya increased output, offsetting losses from Iran as it faces the re-imposition of US sanctions.

MCX CRUDE MCX NATURAL GAS

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Volume Open Interest Price (INR/Bbl)

CALENDER SPREAD NYMEX - CRUDE OIL CALENDER SPREAD NYMEX - NATURAL GAS

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15-Oct 17-Oct 19-Oct 23-Oct 25-Oct 29-Oct 31-Oct

Open Interest Volume Price (INR/MMBTU)

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19-Oct 21-Oct 23-Oct 25-Oct 27-Oct 29-Oct 31-Oct 2-Nov

$/B

BL

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MB

tu


COMMODITIES

PRICES OF METALS IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (IN US $)

Commodity Exchange Contract 26-Oct 02-Nov % change

Aluminium LME 3M 2006.00 1976.00 -1.50%

Copper LME 3M 6182.00 6139.00 -0.70%

Lead LME 3M 1997.00 1957.50 -1.98%

Nickel LME 3M 11880.00 11830.00 -0.42%

Zinc LME 3M 2654.00 2544.50 -4.13%

Gold CME DEC 1235.40 1235.30 -0.01%

Silver CME DEC 14.71 14.75 0.31%

WTI Crude oil CME DEC 67.62 63.54 -6.03%

Natural Gas CME OCT 3.23 3.17 -1.92%

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

Soybean CBOT NOV 871.00 892.75 2.50%

Soybean CBOT NOV 871.00 892.75 2.50%

Soy oil CBOT DEC 28.13 28.31 0.64%

CPO BMD DEC 2147.00 2144.00 -0.14%

Cotton ICE DEC 78.52 78.94 0.53%

SPOT PRICES (% CHANGE)

LME WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)

Commodity Previous week This week Change % Change

Copper 143125 180375 37250 26.03%

Zinc 153125 142725 -10400 -6.79%

Aluminium 1048625 1051425 2800 0.27%

Lead 111500 112675 1175 1.05%

Nickel 219114 218772 -342 -0.16%

SHANGHAI WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)*


Copper 148943 147542 -1401 -0.94%

Zinc 48416 44524 -3892 -8.04%

Aluminium 814042 801705 -12337 -1.52%

*Until Wednesday

COMEX WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)


Copper 159088 156590 -2498 -1.57%

WEEKLY STOCK POSITION IN LME (IN TONS)

Supply & Demand Data - Rubber

The world production of natural rubber (NR) rose 4.5%, year-over-year, to 6.214 million tons during the first half of 2018. This is inclusive of production from non-ANRPC countries accounting for around 10% of the world output, stated the Natural Rubber Trends and Statistics report by the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) in June 2018.

However, the outlook on world production during 2018 has been revised down to 14.040 million tons, up 5.2% from 2017. The revised outlook depicts a slower output growth during 2018 compared to the outlook of 14.150 million tons, at 6.1% growth, released a month ago.

“The production in Vietnam during the first-half fell 19.2%, year-over-year, due to a set of unfavorable weather factors which included the occurrence of whirlwind and typhoons, high temperatures and floods. In Malaysia, the production fell by 20.4% to 302,000 tons largely due to unattractive rubber prices and unfavorable weather. India posted 8.1% decline in production during the H1 2018 mainly due to excess rainy days and the resultant loss of tapping days. In view of one of the worst floods now being witnessed by the Indian state Kerala, there can be a further downward revision in the production anticipated in the country during 2018,” the report said.

All ANRPC-member countries except Malaysia are anticipated to post positive output growth although at widely varying rates. Malaysia is anticipated to produce 700,000 tons during 2018, down 5.4% from the previous year. The lower production anticipated in 2018 is attributed to the larger extent of rubber trees to be Replanted during this year and the resultant shrinkage in the country’s yielding area, ANRPC said.

-6.71%

-3.91%

-2.69%

-2.42%

-2.08%

-1.45%

-1.37%

-1.09%

-0.93%

-0.56%

-0.51%

-0.41%

-0.43%

-0.24%

-0.15%

-0.14%

-0.04%

0.23%

1.12%

1.41%

2.24%

3.46%

3.76%

5.55%

5.75%

-8.00% -6.00% -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00%

Crude Oil

Zinc

RM Seed

Cotton

Cotton Seed Oil Cake

Guar Seed

Guar Gum

Cardamom

Gold

Mentha Oil

Turmeric

Silver

Natural Gas

Lead

Wheat

Aluminum

Copper

CPO

Soy Oil

Nickel

Barley

Soybean

Castor Seed

Dhaniya

Jeera


USD/INR

This is the daily charts of USDINR FUT pair. The pair has been trading in a broader range of 73.88 on the higher side and 73.10 on the lower side for the week. The pair corrected from the higher levels and found support near 73.10 levels. It has been trading above the 50DMA & 20DMA placed at 73.37, while RSI (Relative Strength index) placed at 54 and MACD remains above the zero line.

BUY USDINR FUT 73.10-73.00 TGT 73.70 SL 72.85

EUR/INR

This is the daily chart of EURINR. The pair traded in a broader range of 84.99 on the higher side and 83.22 on the lower side. The pair had a strong momentum on the downside and violated the supports of 84.40 and trended on the lower side.The Relative Strength is at 39, while MACD is having a negative crossover and the pair trades below the 20DMA & 50DMA.

SELL EURINR FUT 83.75-84.10 TGT 82.90 SL 84.40

GBP/INR

This is the daily chart of GBPINR traded in a range of 96.05 on the higher side and 93.77 on the lower side. The pair traded lower and violated the support of 94.70 and trended on the downside. The pair traded below the 20DMA and 50DMA, while the Relative Strength index placed at 37 levels and MACD having a bearish crossover.

SELL GBPINR FUT 94.20-94.55 TGT 92.90 SL 94.95

JPY/INR

This is the daily chart of JPYINR FUT trade in a broader range of 65.72 on the higher side and 64.70 on the lower side. The pair had sidewise move this week, after taking support at 64.70, the pair had a bounce with prices trade above 20DMA and 50DMA and MACD above zero line and relative strength index at 55 expects demand to continue from the lower level.

BUY JPYINR FUT 65.25-65.05 TGT 65.95 SL 64.77

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONMARKET STANCE

Indian Rupee closed at its strongest level in more than a month, USDINR paired all its gains accumulated during October tracking weaker crude prices. Crude Prices lost to fire as market participants witnessed an increase in OPEC production combined with large US inventories build up. Hopes of US may provide relief to selected countries over Iran sanctions also weighed on the prices. Although, the investors remained cautious over the domestic unit with the ongoing dispute between RBI and Central Government rupee was able to close stronger tracking global cues. US president Donald Trump tweeted that he had a great conversation with China’s Primo Xi Jinping and they are working closely to form a good deal when they meet during the G20 Summit later during the month. Softer than expected, the US economic data combined with reduced trade tensions pulled the dollar lower during the week. The pound remained as a dominating player during the week, hammed the dollar index from its 16 month high. Bank of England left the interest rates unchanged at 0.75% but hinted for a faster than expected rate hikes depending on smooth Brexit negotiations. Euro also found its base at 1.1300 against dollar largely supported by broader dollar weakness.

NEWS FLOWS OF LAST WEEK

• India Forex reserves fall to $392.08billion as on 26th October as against $393.52 billion at the end of the previous week.

• The British government has struck a tentative deal with the European Union that would give UK financial services companies continued access to European markets after Brexit.

• The Indian government has invoked never-before-used powers under the RBI Act allowing it to issue directions to the central bank governor on matters of public interest but later gave a clarification that the consultations was in public interest.

• Bank of Japan left the interest rates unchanged and it would continue its asset purchase program to boost the inflation to target levels of 2.0%

• Consumer Confidence in US increased to 137.9 in October from 135.3 compared with the previous number.

• Consumer prices in Euro zone widened by 2.2% (YoY) in October compared with 2.1% in previously.

CURRENCY

CURRENCY TABLE

Currency Pair Open High Low Close

USDINR 73.30 73.83 73.09 73.46

EURINR 84.39 84.67 83.20 83.35

GBPINR 95.81 95.96 93.78 93.98

JPYINR 65.11 65.66 64.87 65.55


ECONOMIC GAUGE FOR THE NEXT WEEK

Date Local Time Country Indicator Name Period Poll Prior Unit Prior

5 Nov 07:15 China (Mainland) Caixin Services PMI Oct 2018 Diff.Idx 53.1

5 Nov 15:00 Euro Zone Sentix Index Nov 2018 10 Diff.Idx 11.4

5 Nov 20:15 United States Markit Comp Final PMI Oct 2018 Diff.Idx 54.8

5 Nov 20:15 United States Markit Svcs PMI Final Oct 2018 Diff.Idx 54.7

5 Nov 20:30 United States Employment Trends Oct 2018 Index 110.8

5 Nov 20:30 United States ISM N-Mfg PMI Oct 2018 60 Index 61.6

5 Nov 20:30 United States ISM N-Mfg Bus Act Oct 2018 64.5 Index 65.2

5 Nov 20:30 United States ISM N-Mfg Employment Idx Oct 2018 Index 62.4

5 Nov 20:30 United States ISM N-Mfg New Orders Idx Oct 2018 Index 61.6

5 Nov 20:30 United States ISM N-Mfg Price Paid Idx Oct 2018 Index 64.2

6 Nov 14:30 Euro Zone Markit Serv Final PMI Oct 2018 53.3 Diff.Idx 53.3

6 Nov 14:30 Euro Zone Markit Comp Final PMI Oct 2018 52.7 Diff.Idx 52.7

6 Nov 15:30 Euro Zone Producer Prices MM Sep 2018 0.3 Percent 0.3

6 Nov 15:30 Euro Zone Producer Prices YY Sep 2018 4.1 Percent 4.2

6 Nov 19:25 United States Redbook MM W 03 Nov Percent 0.1

6 Nov 19:25 United States Redbook YY W 03 Nov Percent 5.9

6 Nov 20:30 United States JOLTS Job Openings Sep 2018 Mln Person 7.136

7 Nov 15:30 Euro Zone Retail Sales MM Sep 2018 0.1 Percent -0.2

7 Nov 15:30 Euro Zone Retail Sales YY Sep 2018 1 Percent 1.8

7 Nov 17:30 United States MBA Mortgage Applications W 02 Nov Percent -2.5

7 Nov 17:30 United States Mortgage Market Index W 02 Nov Index 329.5

7 Nov 17:30 United States MBA Purchase Index W 02 Nov Index 224.9

7 Nov 17:30 United States Mortgage Refinance Index W 02 Nov Index 884.2

7 Nov 17:30 United States MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate W 02 Nov Percent 5.11

7 Nov 21:00 United States EIA Weekly Crude Stocks W 02 Nov Mln Barrel 3.217

7 Nov 21:00 United States EIA Weekly Dist. Stocks W 02 Nov Mln Barrel -4.054

7 Nov 21:00 United States EIA Weekly Gasoline Stk W 02 Nov Mln Barrel -3.161

7 Nov 21:00 United States EIA Weekly Crude Imports W 02 Nov Mln Barrel -0.639

7 Nov 21:00 United States EIA Weekly Rfg Stocks W 02 Nov Mln Barrel -0.01

7 Nov 21:00 United States EIA Weekly Heatoil Stock W 02 Nov Mln Barrel -0.247

7 Nov 21:00 United States EIA Weekly Prods Imports W 02 Nov Mln Brl/Day -0.006

7 Nov 21:00 United States EIA Weekly Dist Output W 02 Nov Mln Brl/Day 0.023

7 Nov 21:00 United States EIA Weekly Crude Runs W 02 Nov Mln Brl/Day 0.149

7 Nov 21:00 United States EIA Weekly Refining Util W 02 Nov Percent 0.2

7 Nov 21:00 United States EIA Wkly Crude Cushing W 02 Nov Mln Barrel 1.878

7 Nov 21:00 United States EIA Weekly Gasoline O/P W 02 Nov Mln Brl/Day 0.336

7 Nov : China (Mainland) FX Reserves (Monthly) Oct 2018 3.068 Trl USD 3.087

7 Nov 00:00 United States EIA Ethanol Ref Stk W 02 Nov Thou Barrel 22746

7 Nov 00:00 United States EIA Ethanol Fuel Total W 02 Nov Thou 1059

7 Nov 01:30 United States Consumer Credit Sep 2018 17 Bln USD 20.08

8 Nov : China (Mainland) Exports YY Oct 2018 12 Percent 14.5

8 Nov : China (Mainland) Imports YY Oct 2018 14 Percent 14.3

8 Nov : China (Mainland) Trade Balance USD Oct 2018 36.27 Bln USD 31.69

8 Nov : China (Mainland) Yuan-Denominated Exports Oct 2018 Percent 17

8 Nov : China (Mainland) Yuan-Denominated Imports Oct 2018 Percent 17.4

8 Nov : China (Mainland) Yuan-Denominated Trade Ba Oct 2018 Bln CNY 213.23

8 Nov 00:30 United States Fed Funds Target Rate 08 Nov Percent 2.125

8 Nov 00:30 United States Fed Int On Excess Reserves 08 Nov Percent 2.2

9 Nov 07:00 China (Mainland) PPI YY Oct 2018 3.4 Percent 3.6

9 Nov 07:00 China (Mainland) CPI YY Oct 2018 2.5 Percent 2.5

9 Nov 07:00 China (Mainland) CPI MM Oct 2018 0.2 Percent 0.7

9 Nov 19:00 United States PPI Final Demand YY Oct 2018 Percent 2.6

9 Nov 19:00 United States PPI Final Demand MM Oct 2018 0.3 Percent 0.2

9 Nov 19:00 United States PPI exFood/Energy YY Oct 2018 Percent 2.5

9 Nov 19:00 United States PPI exFood/Energy MM Oct 2018 0.2 Percent 0.2

9 Nov 19:00 United States PPI ex Food/Energy/Tr YY Oct 2018 Percent 2.9

9 Nov 19:00 United States PPI ex Food/Energy/Tr MM Oct 2018 Percent 0.4

9 Nov 20:30 United States U Mich Sentiment Prelim Nov 2018 Index 98.6

9 Nov 20:30 United States U Mich Conditions Prelim Nov 2018 Index 113.1

9 Nov 20:30 United States U Mich Expectations Prelim Nov 2018 Index 89.3

9 Nov 20:30 United States U Mich 1Yr Inf Prelim Nov 2018 Percent 2.9

9 Nov 20:30 United States U Mich 5-Yr Inf Prelim Nov 2018 Percent 2.4

9 Nov 20:30 United States Wholesale Invt(y), R MM Sep 2018 Percent 0.3

9 Nov 20:30 United States Wholesale Sales MM Sep 2018 Percent 0.8

CURRENCY


IAP Activity in PNB Dumrikala

IAP Activity at Star Health Insurance by Rudrapur team

DEMATERIALISATIONIS MANDATORY

As per the notification issued by Ministry of Corporate Affairs, unlisted companies cannot issue physical shares from 2nd October, 2018. They have to issue shares in demat form only.

• Buyback, bonus issue and rights issue cannot be issued by these companies unless securities of company’s promoters, directors, etc. are in dematerialised form.

• Any investor who holds shares in unlisted companies has to get it dematerialised if he wants to transfer shares

• Any investor who wants to buy shares through private placement or avail bonus shares and rights issue has to hold shares in dematerialised form.

All unlisted companies are required to secure ISIN from CDSL or NSDL for each type of security.

Karvy being a pioneer in the financial realm since 3 decades and providing depository and RTA services as well can facilitate the process of dematerialisation of existing shares and also offer demat account opening facility.

Q. What is the main objective of a Demat account?

The main objective of a demat account is to facilitate easy trade and transfer of the shares and also enable an investor to get the benefits of corporate actions like bonus shares, dividend, rights issue, etc.

Q. How many accounts can I have?

• You can open more than one Demat Account.

• You can hold shares, debentures, bonds, NSC, KVP in a single Demat Account.

• You can save charges on multiple accounts by consolidating your holdings into one account, if there are no other compelling reasons to keep separate accounts.

Q. Can I take a loan on my demat holding?

1. Yes, you can pledge the securities in your account in favor of a lender to avail a loan.

Q. Is there nomination facility in Demat Account?

• Nomination can be made only by individuals holding beneficiary accounts either singly or jointly.

• The Nominee needs to complete a few formalities with DP and get the securities transferred into his/her account.

STEPS TO TRANSFER SHARESFROM ONE DEMAT ACCOUNT TO ANOTHER

Fill the DIS form & submit to your current broker

Your broker will send request to

depository (NSDL/CDSL)

Depository shall transfer the shares to your new Demat

Account

Shares shall reflect in your new Demat

Account

Investor surrenders the physical certificates to the DP

DP informs the

Depository about the request

DP submits the certificates to the Registrar of the issuer company

Registrar communicates

with the depository to confirm the

request

Dematerialization of the certificates

is done by the Registrar

Registrar informs the

depository about completion of

dematerialization

1 2 3 654

STEPS TO CONVERT PHYSICAL SHARES TO DEMAT

Q. Do I have to contact all companies for any updation in my personal details?

For your demat shares, your one point contact for all the changes/updation is DP.

Q. What precautions should I take to prevent misuse of securities lying in my account?

• Keep DIS book in safe custody.

• When writing an instruction on the DI Slip, strike-out the empty spaces.

• Change your password frequently if you are using internet facility for your Demat Account.

• Before giving Power of Attorney (POA) to any person operating your Demat Account, understand the contents and implication of such POA.

Q. How much do I pay for my Demat Account?

1. You can pay Rs. 650 as an account opening fee and enjoy many exclusive offers*.

Q. Whom should I contact in case of any queries?

1. You can call on our toll free no 18004198283 or write a mail at [email protected].

Q. What all documents are required to Open Demat Account?

1. To open a demat account, you need a mobile number linked to Aadhaar, active mobile number, PAN card, digital signature, cancelled personalized cheque.

Q. What if I already have a Demat account with another Depository Participant?

You can open a trading account with us and link it to your existing demat account. Alternately, you can open a new trading and demat account with us, transfer your securities and funds to the new account and close the older account.

Q. Things to check before Opening Demat Account

Before opening a demat account, one should always check the brokerage charges, annual maintenance charges, any other charges if applicable, technology and trading platforms and other supporting value-added features and customer services.

Q. Various Types of Demat Account

At Karvy, we offer customized solutions to meet every investor’s unique requirements. You can opt for only demat or only trading account, demat and trading account with access to trading equity, commodity, currencies, mutual funds and other exchange-traded securities.

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