RULE THE MARKET - Karvy Onlinecontent.karvyonline.com/contents/kstreetissue057.pdfof interest rate...

ISSUE: 057

05TH OCTOBER, 2019

RULE THE MARKET

From The Desk Of Research Head

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Compensation of KSBL’s Research Analyst(s) is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. KSBL generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.KSBL or its associates collectively or Research Analysts do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. KSBL or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report and have no financial interest in the subject company mentioned in this report. Accordingly, neither KSBL nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. It is confirmed that KSBL and Research Analysts, primarily responsible for this report and whose name(s) is/ are mentioned therein of this report have not received any compensation from the subject company mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months. It is confirmed that Research Analyst did not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report. KSBL may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. Neither the Research Analysts nor KSBL have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report. We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on KSBL by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analyst activities.

RBI cuts Policy Rate while maintaining Accommodative Stance

As we had expected, the Monetary Policy Committee in its fourth bi-monthly meet has cut its benchmark repo rate by 25 bps to 5.15 percent. Reverse repo rate stands at 4.90 percent. With this, cumulatively 135 bps rate cut has been effected by now. Cutting down of interest rate has been an unanimous decision wherein four out of five members of MPC, voted in favour of 25 bps cut while remaining one voted in favour of 40 bps cut. The committee has also maintained accommodative stance as long as it is necessary to revive growth while ensuring inflation remains within the target. We believe that the kind of focus economic growth has assumed amidst benign inflation, the MPC might be undertaking two more rate cuts each by 25 bps in forthcoming meets.

Keeping in view softer trajectory for CPI inflation in near term, the MPC has revised CPI inflation projection slightly upward to 3.4 percent in Q2FY19-20 while retaining 3.5-3.7 percent projections for H2FY19-20 and 3.6 percent for Q1FY20-21 with risks evenly balanced. The committee believes that the outlook for food inflation has improved. Vegetables prices may remain elevated in near-term but they are likely to get contained with increase in winter supply. Pulses price may come down on the back of adequate buffer stocks. As regard crude oil prices, it is likely to remain volatile in near-term in view of geo-political tensions which pose upside risks to inflation. Household inflation, as polled by RBI has risen reflecting nearterm price pressure.

In the meantime, the MPC has revised downwardly the real GDP growth rate for FY19-20 to 6.1 percent from its earlier forecast of 6.9 percent. The committee said that growth in Q2FY20 to remain at 5.3 percent while in second half of the financial year it would be in between 6.6-7.2 percent. The committee has pointed at various high frequency indicators suggesting slowdown in domestic demand. Export prospects have been impacted by slowing global growth and continuing trade tensions. However, several measures announced by the government over the last two months are expected to revive sentiment and spur domestic demand.

CONTENTSEquity 1-6

Derivatives 7-8

Commodity 9-12

Currency 13-15

TeamDr. Ravi Singh

Arun Kumar Mantri

R Rajashekar

Syed Hasan Jafar

Srinivas Krishnan Bobba

Osho Krishan

Vivek Ranjan Misra

Deepak Balkrushna Sakure

Chetan K Waghray

Fenil Brahmbhatt

Konpal Pali

Mahesh Keshavrav Bendre

Sayali Shrikant Gadkari

Vivek Lohumi

Vivek Ranjan Misra

Veeresh Hiremath

Siddhesh Ghare

Arpit Chandna

Bharat Sunnam

Ramesh Chenchala

Ravi Pandey

Kushal Asthana

Amit Kumar

Karvy Head Office

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Analyst CertificationThe following Karvy Research Desk, who is (are) primarily responsible for this report and whose name(s) is/ are mentioned therein, certify (ies) that the views expressed herein accurately reflect his (their) personal view(s) about the subject security (ies) and issuer(s) and that no part of his (their) compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report.

- DR. RAVI SINGHHead-Technical & Derivatives Research

EQUITY

Economy

• The six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India on Friday slashed repo rate by 25 basis points in its fourth bimonthly policy review.

• India’s dominant services sector slipped into contraction in September as new business orders fell for the first time since early 2018 according to a private survey which also found business optimism at its lowest in 2-1/2 years.

• In another indicator of economic slowdown, GST collection has dropped below Rs. 1 lakh crore mark to Rs. 91,916 crore for September. The September collection is believed to be the lowest in nineteen months.

Agriculture

• The June-September monsoon season was the wettest in 25 years delivering 10% excess rainfall in an erratic run that began with drought-like conditions in June and ended with the wettest September in more than a century that has flooded fields and urban areas.

• The share of agriculture, forestry and fishing declined to 17.9% in India’s gross value added (GVA) in 2016-17 from 18.6% in 2013-14, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) said in a report.

• The country’s food grains production during the rain fed Kharif season is estimated at 140.57 million tonnes – 0.8% down from the total output estimated in 2018-19 Kharif. However, it is 6.38% more than average foodgrain production of previous five years’ (2013-14 to 2017-18).

Banking & Finance

• The government has roped in Grant Thornton to carry out forensic investigations into the fraud hit Punjab and Maharashtra Cooperative (PMC) Bank. PMC appointed the forensic auditor at the behest of the Economic Offences Wing (EOW) of the Mumbai police.

• Troubled private sector lender Yes Bank is in advanced stage of capital raising from investors, including global tech majors to grow the balance-sheet that has been consciously shrunk in recent months, says chief executive Ravneet Gill.

• Lenders to bankrupt mortgage firm Dewan Housing Finance Limited may have to take up to 30% haircut on their loans even as the company had in its resolution plan promised a full payout of its debt over 10-20 years.

Auto

• Mahindra Accelo, the oldest company of the Mumbai-based business group sees a big opportunity in recycling and in making motors for electric vehicles, its top executive said, as it diversifies from its original steel trading business.

• Hero Electric on Thursday said it has tied up with CSC e-Governance Services India to provide eco-friendly mobility solutions to consumers in rural areas.

Power

• The government has launched a portal for better coordination among the ministries of power, coal and Indian Railways for coal supply to power plants. The Prakash portal – ‘Power Rail Koyla Availability through Supply Harmony’ – will enable all stakeholders to monitor coal right from mines to transportation, power Secretary SC Garg said.

• State-owned power giant NTPC on Thursday said it has added two power generation units of 660 megawatt (MW) each at Tanda and Khargone thermal power plants.

Oil & Gas

• Fuel price rates continued a downward trend for the second day on Friday. Delhi, Kolkata, and Mumbai saw a decline of 18 paisa a liter on petrol and Chennai 19 paisa per liter.

• Indian Oil Corporation has built 850 meters of road using 16 metric tonnes of single-use plastic waste in bitumen concrete and has invited ‘expression of interest’ from various parties and aggregators to consistently supply commercial quantities of such waste.

Steel

• Kamdhenu Ltd. has added new production capacity of 60,000 tonne per annum in Dadri, Uttar Pradesh to manufacture Kamdhenu Structural Steel. The company undertook the new capacity expansion through its franchise partner.

• The Union Steel Ministry has called for deferring the proposed sale of NMDC’s Nagarnar Steel Plant in Chhattisgarh until the plant is commissioned, citing the huge investments involved and sensitivities of the maoists-affected Bastar district where it is being built.

• The reduction in raw material prices since July 2019 will provide a major respite to India steel players, India Ratings and Research has said in its latest report on the steel sector.

Railways

• The Rs. 645-crore initial public offer (IPO) by state-run IRCTC was overall subscribed 111.92 times on the last day of the issue on Thursday.

NEWS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

• China warned on Monday that possible US moves to limit investment ties would disrupt the global economy following a report the Trump administration might be considering options including removing Chinese companies from American stock exchanges.

• British carmaker Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) had given a statement that it would suspend production for a week after the planned Brexit date of October 31 as a “prudent” measure.

• US hits China with additional duties on $4.4 Bn in wooden cabinets and vanities because they are being dumped on the American market at less than fair value.

TRENDSHEETSYMBOL CMP S2 S1 R1 R2 TREND

SENSEX 37673.31 37133 37403 38173 38674 Up

NIFTY 11174.75 11003 11089 11331 11486 Up

NIFTYBANK 27731.85 26962 27347 28424 29115 Down

YESBANK 42.15 20 31 51 60 Down

AXISBANK 656.40 606 631 697 738 Down

SBIN 249.95 223 236 273 295 Down

INDUSINDBK 1265.30 1022 1144 1431 1597 Down

HDFC 1978.30 1902 1940 2027 2077 Down

BPCL 515.55 430 473 552 588 Up

HDFCBANK 1189.70 1140 1165 1235 1280 Up

RELIANCE 1308.10 1250 1279 1340 1371 Up

ICICIBANK 413.90 391 402 435 457 Down

MARUTI 6649.60 6474 6562 6794 6938 Up

FORTHCOMING EVENTSCOMPANY NAME EVENT EX-DATE

Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. Quarterly Results 10 Oct 2019

Bajaj Consumer Care Ltd. Quarterly Results 10 Oct 2019

Accelya Solutions India Ltd. Final Dividend - Rs. - 15.00 10 Oct 2019

Infosys Ltd. Quarterly Results 11 Oct 2019

Century Textile and Industries Ltd. Spin Off 11 Oct 2019

KSTREET - 05TH OCTOBER, 2019 1

INDIAN INDICES (% CHANGE)

GLOBAL INDICES (% CHANGE)

NIFTY MIDCAP100TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (1W)

SECTORAL INDICES (% CHANGE)

FII/FPI & DII TRADING (IN RS. CRORES)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (1W)

EQUITY

Source: Bloomberg

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27-09-19 30-09-19 01-10-19 03-10-19

FII/FPI DII


BEAT THE STREET - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd CMP Rs.236.9Target Price Rs.372Upside 57%

Investment Rationale

• ZEEL is the biggest entertainment network with strong position in the M&E ecosystem.

• The Company enjoys the highest market share in India, 19.7% by end of FY19 (excluding news and sports channels).

• ZEEL entertains over 1.3 billion viewers with more than 100 channels across 171 countries.

• The company is constantly focusing on increasing its viewership share.

• The company’s online streaming platform, ZEE5 is the 2nd largest digital entertainment platform in the country.

• Zee studio is one of the leading production houses in India.

• The management decision of strategic stake sale will improve liquidity condition for the company to pay off its debt and make healthy balance sheet.

• Higher penetration and a rapidly growing young population coupled with increasing usage of 4G and portable devices would augment demand for ZEE5.

• In recent past, the company witnessed strong growth in top line performance and improvement in its margin despite higher investment on content making and digital platform.

• We are expecting that reduction in corporate tax applicable from FY20 will further support bottom-line.

VALUE PARAMETERSFace Value (Rs.) 1.0

52 Week High/Low (Rs.) 507/199

M.Cap (Rs. Bn/US $Bn) 227.4/3.2

EPS (Rs.) 25.1

P/E Ratio (times) (FY21E) 9.4

Dividend Yield (%) 2.3

Stock Exchange BSE, NSE

RELATIVE PERFORMANCE

Valuation

We have a positive outlook for the company due to strong fundamentals, domestic and international expansions, continuous growth in revenue and stable margins despite higher investment in digital business. On other side, implementation of New Tariff Order and repayment of debt for pledged shares are the main concerns for the company. But ongoing strategic stake sale helps to improve liquidity condition to pay off company’s debt and this will boost up the market price. We recommend a “BUY” on the stock with a target price of Rs. 372 and an upside potential of 57%.

EQUITY

% OF SHARE HOLDING

in Rs.Mn ACTUAL ESTIMATE

YE Mar FY19 FY20 FY21

REVENUE 79339 89208 101640

EBITDA 25639 28561 32305

EBITDA(%) 32.3% 32.0% 31.8%

PAT 15671 21004 24143

EPS(Rs.) 16.3 21.9 25.1

RoE (%) 17.5% 19.8% 19.2%

PE (x) 27.3 10.8 9.4

25%

45%

25%

5%

Promoters

FII

DII

Others

0

20

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120

140

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ZEEL SENSEX


BEAT THE STREET - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Ashok Leyland Ltd CMP Rs.68

Target Price Rs.84Upside 23.5%

VALUE PARAMETERSFace Value (Rs.) 1

52 Week High/Low (Rs.) 123/57

M.Cap (Rs. Bn/US $mn) 185.9/2.6

EPS (Rs.) 27.8

P/E Ratio (times) (FY20E) 23.2

Dividend Yield (%) 0.4%

Stock Exchange BSE/NSE

EQUITY

RELATIVE PERFORMANCE

Investment Rationale

• Uncertain Business outlook for FY20: Going forward, FY20 is expected to be a challenging year despite anticipated pre-buying of commercial vehicles in India before BSVI implementation. The pre-buying of commercial vehicles is expected to take place in Q3 and Q4 of FY20. The management expects to benefit from old vehicle scrappage policy which is likely to be implemented in FY21. We believe, ALL being a prominent player in the MHCV segment, is well set to benefit from old vehicle scrappage policy if it comes through. Also any pick up in construction and infra-spending and mining activities in the country is likely to create incremental business opportunities for the Company in FY21.

• New product Launches: At present, ALL offers commercial vehicles in the range of 2.5 tons to 49 tons in the Indian market. Along with its existing MHCV product portfolio, ALL plans to offer entire range of LCVs from FY21. ALL plans to invest adequately over the next 18 months to introduce entire range of LCV segment (2.5 - 7 ton). We believe this strategic choice has a potential to add additional incremental revenue streams for ALL from domestic and international business from FY21 onwards.

• Market share Compression: ALL has witnessed its market share expanding from 30% to 34.1% in domestic MHCV industry during Q1FY20. This is despite aggression from Tata Motors which has led to increase in discounts in many of the previous quarters. To sustain its profitability ALL has not participated in orders wherein pricing has been lower than its benchmark margins.

Valuation

At CMP of Rs. 68, based on its core earnings, the stock is currently quoting at 8.9xFY21E earnings. We believe current valuations ignore ALL’s long term growth prospects and its competitive strength. We retain our BUY rating on the stock with a price target of Rs. 84 (13xFY21E core earnings + Rs. 7 Subsidiary Valuations), an upside potential of 23.5%.

% OF SHARE HOLDING

in Rs.Mn ACTUAL ESTIMATE

YE Mar FY19 FY20 FY21

REVENUE 290,550 309,498 350,770

EBITDA 31,358 30,569 35,698

EBITDA(%) 10.8 9.9 10.2

PAT 20,381 17,382 20,151

EPS(Rs.) 6.9 5.9 6.9

RoE (%) 27 19.6 20.1

CorePE (x) 8.8 10.4 8.9

51.12%

18.75%

2.94%

27.19%Promoters

FII

DII

Others

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Ashok Leyland Sensex


EQUITY

BEAT THE STREET - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Reliance Industries Limited

The stock is in uptrend and making higher high and higher low. The stock is investor friendly and every dip in the stock attracts market participants. The stock has given price breakout around 1300 levels and trading well above the same. The bounce in the stock has seen supportive volume formation in the counter. The stock has seen sharp fall from the high of 1417 levels which pas placed the stock to the low of around 1095 levels. Thereafter, the stock has bounced well with supportive volume formation on daily charts. Currently, the stock is trading above all its major moving averages on daily charts. On technical setup, the 14 period RSI is pointing northward given positive crossover with signal line and trading comfortable above signal line. The parabolic SAR has triggered fresh buy on weekly charts reflects uptrend in the stock will remain intact in near term. The recent development in the stock suggests that the stock is well placed to take it up move. Hence, we suggest buying around 1300 levels for the target of 1480 levels and above that at 1510 levels with a stop loss placed below 1160 levels and any meaningful dip towards 1230-1220 levels can be used for averaging stock for said target.

Tech Mahindra Ltd

The stock is trading in the consolidation rage of 698-720 levels. The stock has closed the week on a flat note of around 0.55%. Prior to that, the stock has seen profit booking from all time high of 846.50 levels. This has dragged the stock to the low of around 607 levels. Thereafter, the stock has resumed its up move and bounce in the stock has seen supportive volume formation on daily charts. Currently, the stock is trading near all its major moving average on daily charts. On technical setup, the 14 period RSI is pointing northward given positive crossover with signal line and trading comfortable above signal line. The parabolic SAR has triggered fresh buy on daily charts that reflects uptrend in the stock will remain intact in near term. The recent development in the stock suggests that the stock is well placed to take its up move and bounce above the upper consolidation range of 720 levels will be a fresh trigger for the stock. Hence, we suggest buy in the stock around 700 levels for the target of 800-815 levels with a stop loss placed below 625 levels and any meaningful dip towards 660 levels can be used to average the stock for above said target.

STOCK RELIANCE

CMP 1308.10

ACTION BUY

ENTRY 1300

AVERAGE 1230

STOP LOSS 1160

TARGET 1 1480

TARGET 2 1510

TIME FRAME 5-6 MONTHS

STOCK TECHM

CMP 708.15

ACTION BUY

ENTRY 700

AVERAGE 660

STOP LOSS 625

TARGET 1 800

TARGET 2 815

TIME FRAME 4-6 MONTHS


EQUITY

Sentiment

Initiation 184

Stop Loss 195

Target 172

Lot Size 2000

Margin 85000

21-DEMA 195

Open Interest Shares 13490000

Change in OI 540000

Cost of Carry (%) 6.38

SECTORAL SNIPPETS

NIFTY BANK (27,731.85) underperformed the Nifty and closed the week with a negative return of around 7.32% whereas Nifty closed the week with a negative return of around 3.03%. During the last week, the index has seen under pressure and fall in the index has seen supportive volume formation on daily charts. The banking stock has reacted on the Monetary policy outcome and 25 bps rate cut with lower GDP outlook. Most of the banking stocks reacted on negative tone and closed the week with negative return. The index has seen trading with increase in volatility last week which placed the index below its 200 DEMA on daily charts. Technically, the index broke down and fell below its major moving averages with supportive volume formation on daily charts. The heavyweight stocks like HDFCBANK, ICICIBANK and SBIN closed the week with negative return of 4.38%, 8.15% and 11.20% respectively. Whereas other bank like BANKBARODA, KOTAKBANK, INDUSINDBK AND AXISBANK closed the week with negative return of 7.26%, 5.08%, 15.05% and 6.44% respectively. The immediate support is placed at 27300 levels and below that at 27000 levels. Whereas resistance is 28000 and above that at 28400 levels. The index is expected to trade in the range of 27000- 28400 levels in near term. The stock specific action is expected with volatility in coming week.

NIFTY METAL (2297.20) has closed the week with a cut of over 6% and has underperformed Nifty 50 index which has lost around 3% during the same period. The index has seen correction consecutively for the second week and is placed above the unfilled gap on daily chart. At the same time, the index is placed well below all its major moving averages on daily chart suggesting inherent weakness in the counter. On oscillator front, the index is placed near the lower band of the Bollinger (20, 2) and at the same time the band is getting narrowed down indicating a higher probability of index to consolidate in near future. This is further being supported by the 14 period RSI which is placed around 31-32 levels post a negative crossover on weekly chart suggesting overall weakness in counter. The breadth of the index is negative with only one stock ending in green and rest 14 have closed in red on week to week basis. Leading the leader board, NMDC has gained over 4% during the week while most of the other stocks have ended in negative territory. For the time being, the immediate support for the NIFTY METAL index may be seen around 2260-2250 zone which is the unfilled gap followed by the recent swing lows of 2190-2200. On the contrary, the immediate resistances may be projected at 2450-2480 levels which are the recent high for the index, followed by the swing highs of 2500 zone. Going forward, one may look for stock specific movement in the index as it is placed near the crucial support zone.

NIFTY AUTO (7404.90) has shown outperformance to the Nifty 50 index on week to week basis and ended the week on a negative note with losses over 2% which is slightly higher than Nifty 50. The index continued its cycle of higher highs, higher lows on daily chart forming a strong base at 7280-7300. Technically, the index has plunged from the recent high and witnessed consecutive sell off in the past week which was mainly because of uncertainty in the demand in auto sector. Also, the range is getting widened week per week indicating potential burst is expected in coming future ahead of seasonal demand. On charts, the immediate support for the index is pegged around 7280-7300 levels which are the recent swing low; breaching which the index may trigger fresh short positions in the coming future. On the contrary, the resistance is pegged around 7650-7700 levels followed by 7800 zone which is a crucial resistance levels for the index. On oscillator front, the index has witnessed recovery from the lower band of the Bollinger (20, 2) and is currently settled above the mean, at the same time the band is getting expanded indicating a higher probability of index to surge in near future. This is further being supported by the 14 period RSI which is placed around 38-42 levels post a positive crossover on weekly chart suggesting potential upside in the counter in near future. Going forward for the coming week, it is advisable to trade cautiously in the counter as stock specific action could be seen post the sales data. It is advisable to always hedge the position and not to carry heavy leveraged positions.

NIFTY IT (15340.30) has outperformed the Nifty 50 index on week to week basis as it settled with a gain around 0.50% and Nifty 50 settled with loss of around 3%. On weekly perspective, the index has seen consolidation ranging from 16000-15300 levels from past few weeks. The surge in the index was seen mainly due to the gain in heavyweight stocks like INFY, TCS and WIPRO which surged over 0.50-1.5% on weekly basis. Technically, the index is placed below all its major moving average on daily chart suggesting inherent strength. Even on oscillator front, 14 period RSI has seen taking support of its previous swings in past few trading sessions and is currently placed in the zone of 45-49, indicating limited downside room in the index. The index is having support near 15200 levels followed by 15000 zones, which is its recent swing low. While on the flip side, the resistance can be seen around 15600 levels followed by 15800-16000 levels. On weekly chart, the index has seen some correction from recent highs of around 15600 levels which was backed by the technical indicator Bollinger band, in which the index has seen resistance from the mean and is currently placed near to the mean, suggesting some recovery move in the counter. For the coming future, the index is expected to remain range bound within the mentioned zone. However, due to the volatility in the USD/INR it is advisable to trade cautiously in the sector and not to carry heavy leveraged position on either side.

HCL TECHNOLOGIES LTD: BUY HCLTECH (OCT FUTURE) | CMP: 1082.85 SECTOR: IT

HCLTECH is trading with bullish bias on the weekly charts making repeated cycles of higher highs and higher lows. The stock is our preferred pick in the Information Technology space and is currently trading around the major moving averages and support zone of 1040-1050 levels on the daily charts. The stock has shown first signs of reversal from the psychological mark of 1000-1020 levels and above the cluster of major resistance levels. Analyzing the price volume action in the last week, the stock has witnessed good volumes around the lower levels of 1020 indicating good accumulation and the support area. On the Bollinger band (20, 2) front, the stock is trading well above the mean on the weekly charts with the lower band turning towards the northward direction indicating the supports shifting towards the higher levels. Key supports for the stock is placed at 1050 followed by 1030 levels while resistance is pegged around 1100-1120 levels in the short term period. From the risk reward point of view, the stock is looking attractive at current levels which are trading around the strong support zone. Short term traders may go long on the stock around 1075 levels keeping a stop loss below 1035 for the targets of 1125 levels in the October derivatives series.

Sentiment

Initiation 1075

Stop Loss 1035

Target 1125

Lot Size 700

Margin 132000

21-DEMA 1065

Open Interest Shares 10682000

Change in OI -105700

Cost of Carry (%) 4.70

CANARA BANK LTD: SELL CANBK (OCT FUTURE) | CMP: 180.85 SECTOR: BFSI

CANBK has been one of the underperformers in the broader markets in the past couple of weeks and has witnessed cuts of over 10% with notable trading volumes. At current juncture, the counter is trading well below the major moving averages and any pullback towards the above range may be utilized to create fresh short positions in the stock. On the weekly charts, the price has given massive breakdown below the psychological mark of 195-200 levels and concluded well below the same for the second consecutive week. On the other hand, the overall PSU Banking index is also witnessing selling pressure in line with the market conditions and may remain major underperformer in the coming week. We expect the counter to test the gap levels on the daily charts which is placed around 170 levels on the lower side. The price has immediate support around 175 followed by 170 levels while resistance is pegged around 186 followed by 195 levels. Short term traders may adopt the strategy of “Sell on Rise” in the stock around 184 for the downside targets of 172 keeping a strict stop loss above 195 levels in the October derivative series.


WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

NIFTY (11174.75): Indian equity benchmark index Nifty 50 closed lower by 2.93% during the week. The markets witnessed selling on the back of domestic as well as global cues including the Reserve Bank’s monetary policy and fresh concerns over global trade. The RBI’s monetary policy committee on October 4 slashed rates by 25 bps and kept the stance accommodative to revive growth in Asia’s third-largest economy. The central bank slashed policy rates for the fifth time in a row in line with expectations. Consequently, the rate cut totals to 135 bps in 2019 and the repo rate stands at 5.15 percent now. As expected, the MPC lowered GDP growth forecast sharply to 6.1 percent due to lower-than-estimated Q1 growth and weaker momentum in the subsequent months. It increased inflation forecast for Q2FY20 to 3.4 percent from 3.1 percent previously while retaining H2FY20 forecast at 3.5-3.7 percent. Technically, the index is taking resistance around 11545 levels which is 61.80% retracement zone of the Fibonacci retracement levels which are drawn from the all-time highs of 12100 to the swing low of 10637 levels which may indicate weakness in the index. However, to maintain its bullishness, the index may need to surpass the said 11545 levels. On the derivatives front, Open Interest data suggests that the index may find its supports around 11000 followed by 10800 levels while on the higher side, 11400 and 11500 may act as strong resistance.

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

DERIVATIVES

TYPE SHORT STRANGLE IN NIFTY

FIRST LEG Sell 1 lot of NIFTY 10OCT 11000 PE @ 25

SECOND LEG Sell 1 lot of NIFTY 10OCT 11400 CE @ 24

BEPS LBEP: 10951 | UBEP: 11449

MAX PROFIT 3675

MAX LOSS Unlimited beyond BEPs

RATIONALE Nifty has corrected from the recent swing highs of 11694 levels and is currently hovering around the recent breakout level of 11100-11150 levels which indicates some consolidation at current levels. Hence, short strangle strategy may be built taking the above strikes with strict levels.

TYPE BUY PUT IN BANKNIFTY

FIRST LEG Buy one lot of BANKNIFTY 10OCT 27600 PE @ 260-280

BEP 27320

MAX PROFIT Unlimited Beyond BEP

STOP LOSS 180 (Premium Levels)

MAX LOSS 5600

RATIONALE The Index witnessed deep cuts in the last week of more than 7% clearly underperforming the broader markets. We expect the index to drift further lower towards 27300-27400 levels and may bounce back.

TYPE BUY CALL IN HCLTECH

FIRST LEG Buy 1 lot of HCLTECH OCT 1100 CE @ 24-25

BEP 1125

MAX PROFIT Unlimited Beyond BEP

STOP LOSS 18 (Premium Levels)

MAX LOSS 17500

RATIONALEThe stock has shown first signs of reversal from the psychological mark of 1000-1020 levels and above the cluster of major resistance levels. Analyzing the price volume action in the last week, the stock has witnessed good volumes around the lower levels of 1020 in the last couple of weeks indicating good accumulation and the support area.

TYPE BEAR PUT IN SBIN

FIRST LEG Buy 1 lot of SBIN OCT 245 PE @ 10

SECOND LEG Sell 1 lot of SBIN OCT 240 PE @ 8

BEP 243

MAX PROFIT 9000

MAX LOSS 6000

RATIONALE The stock has given massive breakdown below 260 levels on the daily charts and concluded well below the same. The overall chart structure seems to be bearish and the stock price may test 238-240 levels in the short term perspective.

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7KSTREET - 05TH OCTOBER, 2019

DERIVATIVES

FII ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURES FII ACTIVITY IN STOCK FUTURES

TOP 6 LONG BUILD UP

Stock Name LTP % Price Change Open Int % OI Change

ESCORTS 598.3 1.39 5023700 7.76

IOC 151.05 3.78 52503500 5.82

UPL 582.55 0.09 15260400 4.47

IGL 347.9 0.27 3454000 2.87

SIEMENS 1533.4 1.61 1224850 2.67

M&M 564.25 1.65 22013000 1.59

BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI

TOP 6 SHORT CLOSURE


BIOCON 231.1 5.96 11367000 -16.26

CONCOR 614.8 4.00 4596783 -12.05

ITC 257.25 1.70 105388800 -7.59

NTPC 117.4 0.30 61833600 -7.53

MINDTREE 711.7 0.54 1305600 -4.18

HINDPETRO 320.7 4.86 18984000 -3.99

TOP 6 SHORT BUILD UP


IDFCFIRSTB 38.05 -10.47 235740000 35.05

PEL 1597.25 -7.49 6357402 26.38

YESBANK 42.15 -13.54 201238400 22.81

JUSTDIAL 612.75 -11.29 2340800 21.69

KOTAKBANK 1563.15 -4.89 8542000 20.87

RAMCOCEM 722.3 -4.68 1475200 17.38

TOP 6 LONG CLOSURE


MGL 878.00 -4.28 1541400 -17.74

TORNTPOWER 279.80 -4.15 3333000 -17.27

CHOLAFIN 289.65 -6.75 2647500 -15.82

SUNTV 462.95 -4.14 3691000 -13.58

PVR 1772.55 -4.95 888400 -13.21

INDIGO 1809.60 -2.28 2412600 -13.08

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI

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COMMODITIES

BULLIONThe world bullion derivative market had witnessed a volatile trend during the week ended on 4th October. It started the week on weaker note extending its penultimate week’s weakness on extended profit booking. Further, the market saw pressure at the beginning of the week by surge in dollar against major currencies. The dollar index which measures strength of the US dollar against six major currencies surged to trade near 100 mark thereby putting pressure on the market. Further, firmness in the US equity market also had negative impact on the market. However, the fall was limited and the prices of precious metals started moving higher as the weakness on the other asset classes such as equity, currency and bond market started unfolding. Increasing fear of global economic slowdown and weaker than expected ADP employment data added strength to the global bullion market. ADP employment change came at 135,000 against market expectation of 140,000 and previous reading of 157,000. Increasing expectation of further monetary easing by US Federal Reserve led to fall in US Dow Jones Industrial Average thereby attracting investment in yellow metal. During the week, the US 10 year treasury yield is trading at a four-week low and 2-year yield at three weeks low. US government opened a new trade war with the European Union by imposing 25% tariffs on French wine, Italian cheese and single-malt Scotch whisky in retaliation for European Union subsidies on large aircraft. On domestic front, MCX gold futures were under pressure at the beginning of the week moving in sync with international market and later started moving higher on emergence of fresh buying.

ENERGYCrude oil prices posted second consecutive weekly losses on the fears about slower global economic growth outlook which would hurt energy demand. The International Energy Agency (IEA) may cut its growth estimates for global oil demand for 2019 and 2020 if the global economy weakens further. The agency trimmed in August its global oil demand growth estimates for 2019 and 2020 to 1.1 million and 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) respectively. Separately, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said on Thursday that country has fully restored the oil output and after attacks on its facilities last month and is now focused on the listing of state oil giant Saudi Aramco. Aramco also stated that it has set its November Arab light crude oil official selling price to Asia at a premium of $3 to the Oman/Dubai average, up 70 cents a barrel from October. The US last week imposed sanctions on two units of China’s COSCO for alleged involvement in ferrying crude out of Iran. As per Russian Energy Ministry, oil output edged down to 11.25 million barrels per day (bpd) last month from August’s 11.29 million bpd but remained above the caps set under a global production deal. Meanwhile, US domestic crude production fell 276,000 barrels per day to 11.8 million bpd in July and oil production is counting low growth in response to lower crude oil prices. On the inventory side, US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 3.1 million barrels from previous week. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 0.2 million barrels last week and are about 3% above the five year average for this time of year and distillate fuel inventories decreased by 2.4 million barrels last week and are about 8% below the five year average for this time of year.

COTTONCotton prices traded down for most part of the week ended on 4th October due to bumper crop expectation for year 2019-20. Higher crop outlook driven by rise in acreages under cotton prompted speculators to enlarge short positions at futures platform. Total cotton acreages for year 2019-20 were reported at 127.63 lakh hectares as on 27th September against the 121.05 lakh hectares of prior year for corresponding period as per the data released by Ministry of Agriculture. Moreover, tumbling prices of cotton yarn in line with shrinking exports pressurized whole value chain prices during the week. Meanwhile, Ministry of Agriculture trimmed its production estimates for cotton during year 2018-19 estimated at 287 lakh bales in its fourth and final advance estimates and projected cotton production in year 2019-20 at 322 lakh bales. Cotton Association of India (CAI) data showed that India’s cotton exports were 36% lower at 44 lakh bales till September 30 while its imports almost doubled to 29 lakh bales. At global front, ICE cotton futures traded mixed to higher in anticipation of ease of trade tension between US and China in view of upcoming trade negotiation scheduled in coming weeks. Moreover, prices were buoyed by the positive weekly export sales data released by

USDA on Thursday. USDA showed net sales of 177,800 RB for week ending 26th September was up 15% from the previous week and 49% from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Pakistan (62,900 RB), Vietnam (24,000 RB), Indonesia (21,500 RB), Turkey (18,200 RB), and Bangladesh (11,200 RB). Exports of 154,700 RB were down 12% from the previous week and 16% from the prior 4-week average.

SOYBEAN Soybean prices traded down for most part of the week due to rising prices disparity of Indian meal in global market. Soymeal prices in Indian ruled at Rs. 35000 per MT on Thursday against Rs. 26000 per MT of prior year. Moreover, improvement in arrivals in line with picking up of harvesting activities and limited buying from stockiest pressurized prices at futures platform. Total acreages under soybean in India were reported at 113.98 lakh hectares till 27th September against the 113.09 lakh hectares of prior year for corresponding period. Similarly, mustard seed prices traded higher on limited supply in physical market. NAFED has sold about 2529 MT of mustard seed stocks with averages prices of Rs. 3870 per quintal wherein 16759 MT were reported under progressive sale as on 26th September. At the same time, CPO prices ruled under pressure for most part of the week due to expectation of higher inventory in month of September. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for September fell 19.6% to 1,316,670 tonnes from 1,637,752 tonnes shipped in August down by 19.6% M/M as per data released by cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services. Weakness in rival veg oil prices also impacted market sentiments negatively. CBOT soyoil futures rose on slower progress of harvest in US. Moreover, reports of fresh buying of US soybean by China also helped soy oil price to trade higher. USDA showed only 7% of soybean crop harvesting completed till 29th September against the 22% of prior year for corresponding period and 20% of five year average. Malaysia has exempted export duty for crude palm kernel oil and RBD palm kernel oil from October 1 until June 30, 2020 in a bid to reduce stockpiles in the domestic market.

GUARGuar seed and gum futures witnessed sharp fall during the week ended on 4th October as prices wee down by more than 3% due to selling pressure in the market tracking bearish fundamental outlook such as weak demand amid restricted supply in major belts of Rajasthan. The investors had also ignored their buying from the prevailing levels due to subdued demand in the market. The emergence of new crop arrivals has started in Hanumangarh, Ganganagar, Haryana and Bikaner. Total arrivals till today are likely to be around 2.78 lakh bags. Guar crop is expected to be black in Hanumangarh and Haryana region due to the effect of heavy storm and rainfall. Gum exports are likely be too weak due to strong rupee against the US dollar which adds negative sentiments in the market. Gum exports are likely to be too weak due to strong rupee against the US dollar which adds negative sentiments in the market. Falling gum/seed ratio to 1.90 to 2.00 during the week had indicated low buying for gum for the export and industries purpose. Rajasthan government had released its first advance estimates showed total guar production for the year 2019-20 at 17.16 Lakh tonnes whereas the Gujarat first advance estimation showed 105.64 thousand tonnes of guar production in the year 2019-20. Guar seed most active October contract making a low of Rs. 3731 per quintal and closed the weekly session at Rs. 3824 per quintal fell by 3.30% whereas gum futures for the same contract made a low of Rs. 7002 per quintal and closed the weekly session at Rs. 7218 per quintal tumbled by 4.31%.


COMMODITIES

GOLD

TRENDSHEET

Commodities 27-Sep 4-Oct % Change 52 Week High% Change from 52

Week High52 Week Low

% Change from 52 Week Low

MCX Gold (Rs/10 gms) 37750.0 37949.0 0.5% 39885.00 -4.85% 30107.00 26.05%

MCX Silver (Rs/Kg) 45517.0 45236.0 -0.6% 50672.00 -10.73% 34981.00 29.32%

MCX Crude Oil (Rs/bbl) 3934.0 3759.0 -4.4% 5644.00 -33.40% 2993.00 25.59%

MCX Natural Gas (Rs/mmBtu) 171.1 170.0 -0.6% 358.70 -52.61% 144.60 17.57%

MCX Copper (Rs/kg) 436.2 434.4 -0.4% 469.35 -7.46% 397.40 9.30%

MCX Lead (Rs/kg) 153.5 157.3 2.5% 168.00 -6.37% 123.80 27.06%

MCX Zinc (Rs/kg) 179.3 181.6 1.3% 233.65 -22.30% 167.20 8.58%

MCX Nickel (Rs/kg) 1256.1 1265.0 0.7% 1314.80 -3.79% 735.00 72.11%

MCX Aluminium (Rs/kg) 133.3 134.2 0.6% 167.80 -20.05% 124.75 7.54%

NCDEX Soybean (Rs/Quintal) 3971.0 3796.0 -4.4% 4097.00 -7.35% 3149.00 20.55%

NCDEX Refined Soy Oil (Rs/10 kg) 765.5 758.8 -0.9% 784.00 -3.21% 713.60 6.33%

NCDEX RM Seed (Rs/Quintal) 3979.0 4002.0 0.6% 4241.00 -5.64% 3711.00 7.84%

MCX CPO (Rs/10 kg) 548.2 544.5 -0.7% 597.10 -8.81% 483.40 12.64%

NCDEX Castor Seed (Rs/Quintal) 5136.0 4288.0 -16.5% 6300.00 -31.94% 4276.00 0.28%

NCDEX Turmeric (Rs/Quintal) 6108.0 5972.0 -2.2% 7360.00 -18.86% 5852.00 2.05%

NCDEX Jeera (Rs/Quintal) 16750.0 16880.0 0.8% 21000.00 -19.62% 15140.00 11.49%

NCDEX Dhaniya (Rs/Quintal) 5429.0 5709.0 5.2% 7688.00 -25.74% 4781.00 19.41%

MCX Cardamom (Rs/kg) 3101.8 3355.5 8.2% 4265.30 -21.33% 1362.00 146.37%

NCDEX Wheat (Rs/Quintal) 2081.0 2080.0 0.0% 2162.00 -3.79% 1770.00 17.51%

NCDEX Guar Seed (Rs/Quintal) 3954.0 3855.5 -2.5% 4869.50 -20.82% 3731.00 3.34%

NCDEX Guar Gum (Rs/Quintal) 7543.0 7306.0 -3.1% 10510.00 -30.49% 7002.00 4.34%

MCX Cotton (Rs/Bale) 20010.0 19690.0 -1.6% 23300.00 -15.49% 19320.00 1.92%

NCDEX Cocud (Rs/Quintal) 2137.5 2150.0 0.6% 3698.00 -41.86% 1657.00 29.75%

MCX Mentha Oil (Rs/kg) 1247.1 1218.0 -2.3% 1846.10 -34.02% 1176.00 3.57%

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

SILVER

CRUDE OIL

Gold MCX Dec is currently trading at 38300. During the previous week, it made a high of 38650 and low of 36832. The RSI is trading at 72.84. Moving average of 8 is at 38149 and 20 is at 36246. The trend is looking positive for the week. Hence, we recommend buying at 37980-38000 TP 39400 SL 37450

Silver MCX Dec is currently trading at 45200 levels. During the previous week, it made a high of 45995 and low of 43969. The RSI is trading at 65.08. Moving average of 8 is at 45751 and 55 is at 42763. The trend is looking positive for the week. Hence, we recommend buying at 44800-44850 TP 46000 SL 44100

Crude oil MCX Oct is currently trading at 3730. During the week, it made a high of 3969 and low of 3622. The RSI is trading at 42.90. Moving average of 8 is at 3940 and 20 is at 3964. The trend is looking negative for the week. Hence, we recommend selling crude oil at 3825-3835 TP 3680 SL 3900


COMMODITIES

MCX CRUDE- PRICE, VOLUME & OPEN INTEREST MCX NATURAL GAS – PRICE, VOLUME & OPEN INTEREST

CALENDAR SPREAD NYMEX - CRUDE OIL CALENDAR SPREAD NYMEX – NATURAL GAS

NEWS DIGEST

• Gold prices fell today in India after a sharp rise in the previous session. A similar trend was seen in silver prices. On MCX, prices of December gold futures contracts slipped 0.16% to ₹38,343. Gold prices had jumped 1.3% in the previous session. Silver contracts on MCX slid 0.25% to Rs. 45,527 after registering a 1.8% jump in the previous session. In global markets, gold prices extended gains to the fourth day today as weak US data bolstered bets of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

• Oil futures were higher ahead of the weekend but remained on track for large weekly losses on fears that slower global economic growth will hurt fuel demand even as Saudi Arabia said it has fully restored oil output after recent attacks.

• Malaysian palm oil futures climbed in early trade on Friday recovering from two sessions of declines on the back of sharp overnight gains in US soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). The benchmark palm oil contract for December delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange was up 1.12% at 2,161 ringgit per tonne, as of 0310 GMT. US soyoil futures on the CBOT were down 0.1% after charting a 2.3% gain overnight.

• US soybean imports this year are likely to fall to 1.8 million tonnes from 2 million tonnes last year mainly due to lower prices as the crop takes a hit from the US-China trade dispute, the US Soybean Export Council said yesterday.

• The council is seeking to strengthen trade ties with Taiwan and other markets after China, the world’s largest soybean buyer raised tariffs on US soybeans to 25% and threatened another 5% increase in retaliation against Washington’s levies on Chinese goods.

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COMMODITIES

FUTURE PRICES (% CHANGE)

LME WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)

Commodity Previous week This week Change % Change

Copper 264425 288425 24000 9.08%

Zinc 67300 65075 -2225 -3.31%

Aluminium 927475 966525 39050 4.21%

Lead 69650 69175 -475 -0.68%

Nickel 157986 133128 -24858 -15.73%

SHANGHAI WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)*


Copper 117455 118108 653 0.56%

Zinc 67200 64095 -3105 -4.62%

Aluminium 318988 313911 -5077 -1.59%

*Until Wednesday, (Chinese market was closed last week)

GLOBAL STOCK POSITION (IN TONS)

COMEX WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)


Copper 30204 30600 396 1.31%

PRICES OF METALS IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (IN US $)

Commodity Exchange Contract 27-Sep 04-Oct % change

Aluminium LME 3M 1741.00 1718.00 -1.32%

Copper LME 3M 5762.00 5655.00 -1.86%

Lead LME 3M 2076.00 2130.00 2.60%

Nickel LME 3M 17210.00 17665.00 2.64%

Zinc LME 3M 2309.50 2293.00 -0.71%

Gold CME Aug 1538.10 1538.10 0.00%

Silver CME July 14.28 14.28 0.00%

WTI Crude oil CME June 56.18 52.31 -6.89%

Natural Gas CME June 2.40 2.34 -2.42%

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

Commodity Exchange Contract 27-Sep 04-Oct % change

Soybean CBOT July 909.00 936.50 3.03%

Soy oil CBOT July 27.98 27.98 0.00%

CPO BMD Aug 2027.00 2027.00 0.00%

Cotton ICE July 66.23 66.23 0.00%

-16.51%

-4.47%

-4.41%

-3.14%

-2.49%

-2.33%

-2.23%

-1.60%

-0.88%

-0.67%

-0.58%

-0.68%

-0.48%

-0.08%

-0.05%

0.53%

0.58%

0.58%

0.75%

0.68%

0.78%

1.26%

2.48%

5.16%

8.18%

-20.00% -15.00% -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00%

Castor Seed

Crude Oil

Soybean

Guar Gum

Guar Seed

Mentha Oil

Turmeric

Cotton

Soy Oil

CPO

Natural Gas

Silver

Copper

Barley

Wheat

Gold

RM Seed

Cotton Seed Oil Cake

Aluminum

Nickel

Jeera

Zinc

Lead

Dhaniya

Cardamom

NICKEL- AN UNSTOPPABLE SURGE

Nickel prices traded on a weaker note in September and was unable to break the high made during the end of August 2019. Taking the supports of $16,790 per ton at LME and INR 1200 per kg at Indian markets, prices traded on a fixed note which made the traders to make little gains as against the August month. Appreciation in Indian rupee made the metal to witness losses from the highs made in the month. Inventory levels at LME warehouses witnessed a two way movement after making a high of 164.27Kt in the second week and later in the end reached to its level of 158.11 Kt. Similarly, at Shanghai warehouses, the inventories were neutral at 21 Kt levels. The warrant cancellations rose better in the end of month giving supports to the metal prices from falling and stood at 139.57% from 90.48% levels at LME. At Shanghai markets, the warrant cancellations were down from 4.49% to 1.7% making the need for metal very less.

As per WBMS study, the nickel market was in deficit during the first seven months of 2019 with demand crossing production by 78.7 kt. During the whole of 2018, the deficit was 95.7kt. Closing stocks held in the LME at the end of July 2019 were 62.7kt which was lower than the end of 2018. Production of refined metal in January to July 2019 summed to 1308.5kt and demand was 1387.1kt. Production from mine during January to July was 1419.1kt which was 93kt above the comparable 2018 total. Smelter and refinery activity at China output increased by 67kt compared to 2018 and apparent demand was 120kt higher than the previous year. China’s production of non-ferrous metals during August 2019 stood at 4.91 million tons, up 4.4% compared to August 2018. In January-August, output of the nonferrous metals amounted to 38.63 million tons, with a year-over-year increase of 4.6%. As per a private group study, nickel ore inventories across all Chinese ports fell 280,000 tons from a week ago to 13.25 million tons.

World apparent demand was 56kt higher than the previous year. In July 2019, nickel smelter/refinery production was 214.1kt and consumption was 230kt. Imports of nickel ore in China used in stainless steel production from Indonesia rose 26.5% on a yearly basis in August because stainless steel producers stored up raw materials ahead of Southeast Asian country’s ban on exports. Stainless steel production in October is likely to boost up and the current economic aspects shall keep a lid on huge rise. Nevertheless, looking at the value added by mining and processing industrial segment from China, the contribution down the line during October shall remain narrow making the metal to trade on a fixed note without much rise.


USD/INR

USDINR traded positive during the week, it made a high of 71.34 and low of 70.36. The RSI is at 55.35. Moving average of 50 is at 70.40. The trend is looking positive for the week. Hence, we recommend buying at 70.80 TP 71.70 SL 70.30

EUR/INR

EURINR traded positive during the week, it made a high of 78.16 and low of 76.92. The RSI is trading at 46.36. Moving average of 50 is at 78.29. The trend is looking positive for the week. Hence, we recommend buying at 77.50 TP 78.50 SL 77.00.

GBP/INR

GBPINR traded positive during the week, it made a high of 87.76 and low of 86.45. The RSI is trading at 47.56. Moving average of 50 is at 47.56. The trend is looking neutral for the week. Hence, we recommend sellingl on rise at 88.00 TP 87.00 SL 88.50.

JPY/INR

JPYINR traded positive during the week, it made a high of 66.58 and low of 65.17. The RSI is at 59.60. Moving average of 50 is at 59.60. The trend is looking positive for the week. Hence, we recommend buying at 66.00 TP 67.00 SL 65.50.

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONMARKET STANCE

USD/INR closed for the week at 70.56 after hitting weekly high of 71.13 and low of 70.51. Pair traded with volatility on RBI monetary policy decisions. RBI cut its repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.15 percent to boost the flow of credit and support economic growth. RBI also decided to continue with its accommodative stance “as long as it is necessary” to revive growth while ensuring inflation remains within the target. With this cut, the repo rate has been reduced for the fifth consecutive time this year. Indian economy grew at the pace of 5 percent in the June-ended quarter, it’s slowest since 2013. Post this pathetic growth rate, a number of measures have been taken by the government and the central bank including a corporate tax rate cut and setting up loan melas to encourage fresh investments. Inflation has remained well within the MPC’s target of 4 percent for the past 13 months, giving room for the central bank to cut the policy rates. Dollar trades in a tight range against majors ahead of an important monthly employment report. Recent US economic data has suggested clear slowdown in US. Weaker-than-expected survey of the US non-manufacturing sector further boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again to support the economy. US ISM PMI for non-manufacturing fell to a three-year low of 51.6, well below a consensus forecast of 55. UK’s composite PMI fell below the 50 that divides growth from contraction. President Donald Trump said a delegation from China would come to the US next week for more trade talks. The improvement in expectations about a possible Brexit deal boosted the Pound across the board, though it remained short-lived. The new Brexit proposal from UK Prime Minister Johnson received support from Tories who previously opposed a deal. Though, it gave up some of the gains at the time of writing. Major Rupee strength is not likely in the near term. Best case scenario is 70.40 levels where USD would find a very strong support whereas near term resistance is placed at 71.40 levels.

NEWS FLOWS OF LAST WEEK

• US consumer spending on goods and services rose 0.1% in August while durable goods orders inched up 0.2% compared to a rise of 2% in July.

• Bank of England policy maker Michael Saunders said Brexit uncertainties are likely to keep depressing growth, even if the departure from the European Union is smooth.

• Fiscal deficit in first four months of FY20 stood at Rs. 5.47 lakh crore or 77.8 percent of government’s total budget estimate of the year.

• Weak economic data from Germany reinforced expectations that monetary policy in the euro zone will remain accommodative for an extended period.

• European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the institution can do more if needed to boost inflation, and called for euro-area governments to support this effort with fiscal spending.

• India’s eight-core industries in August recorded a 0.5 percent decline in output of coal, crude oil, natural gas, cement, and electricity.

• ADP showed that private employers did not hire as many people as expected, suggesting a slowdown in the labour market.

• Italian Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio expressed that Rome is worried by the prospect of US tariffs on Italian exports.

• WTO gave the US the go-ahead to impose roughly $7.5 Bn worth of tariffs on the EU.

• The manufacturing numbers coming out of Germany continue to disappoint with September’s PMI widely missing expectations and showing the downturn deepening.

• Goods and Services Tax collection in September stood at Rs. 91,916 crore as against Rs. 98,202 crore in August.

• RBI cut its repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.15 percent to boost the flow of credit and support economic growth.

• RBI also decided to continue with its accommodative stance “as long as it is necessary” to revive growth, while ensuring inflation remains within the target.

CURRENCY

CURRENCY TABLE

Currency Pair Open High Low Close

USDINR 70.45 71.34 70.35 70.88

EURINR 77.18 78.15 76.95 77.87

GBPINR 86.58 87.75 86.48 87.52

JPYINR 65.38 66.54 65.21 65.42


ECONOMIC GAUGE FOR THE NEXT WEEK

Date Local Time Country Indicator Name Period Poll Prior Unit Prior

7 Oct 2019 13:00 UK Halifax House Prices MM Sep 0.1% 0.3% Percent 2.1

7 Oct 2019 13:00 UK HalifaxHousePrice 3M/YY Sep 1.6% 1.8% Percent 50.4

7 Oct 2019 14:00 EU Sentix Index Oct -13.0 -11.1 Index (diffusion) 53.8

7 Oct 2019 15:30 UK BBA Mortgage Rate Sep 4.30% Percent 49.5

7 Oct 2019 19:30 US Employment Trends Sep 110.6 Index 53

7 Oct 2019 20:30 US Export Wheat Inspected 3 Oct, w/e 466.506k Tonne 0.897

7 Oct 2019 20:30 US Export Corn Inspected 3 Oct, w/e 399.736k Tonne 4.611

7 Oct 2019 20:30 US Exp Soybean Inspected 3 Oct, w/e 982.288k Tonne 67.306

8 Oct 2019 0:30 US Consumer Credit Aug 18.20B 23.29B USD 0.7

8 Oct 2019 4:31 UK BRC Retail Sales YY Sep -0.50% Percent 2443419

8 Oct 2019 7:15 CHINA Caixin Services PMI Sep 52.1 Index (diffusion) -0.2

8 Oct 2019 13:30 CHINA FX Reserves (Monthly) Sep 3.101T 3.107T USD 1.2

8 Oct 2019 14:00 UK Labour Productivity Q2 -0.2% Percent -0.5

8 Oct 2019 15:30 US NFIB Business Optimism Idx Sep 103.10 Index -1.6

8 Oct 2019 18:00 US PPI Final Demand YY Sep 1.8% 1.8% Percent -30.045

8 Oct 2019 18:00 US PPI Final Demand MM Sep 0.1% 0.1% Percent 7.5

8 Oct 2019 18:00 US PPI exFood/Energy YY Sep 2.3% 2.3% Percent 5476.05

8 Oct 2019 18:00 US PPI exFood/Energy MM Sep 0.2% 0.3% Percent 50.4

8 Oct 2019 18:00 US PPI ex Food/Energy/Tr YY Sep 1.9% Percent 2.7

8 Oct 2019 18:00 US PPI ex Food/Energy/Tr MM Sep 0.4% Percent 543

8 Oct 2019 18:25 US Redbook MM 5 Oct, w/e -1.1% Percent 51.4

8 Oct 2019 18:25 US Redbook YY 5 Oct, w/e 5.8% Percent

9 Oct 2019 3:00 US API weekly crude stocks 30 Sep, w/e #N/P #N/P Number of 0.1

9 Oct 2019 3:00 US API weekly gasoline stk 30 Sep, w/e #N/P #N/P Number of 49.1

9 Oct 2019 3:00 US API weekly dist. stocks 30 Sep, w/e #N/P #N/P Number of 46

9 Oct 2019 3:00 US API weekly heating oil 30 Sep, w/e #N/P #N/P Number of 47.4

9 Oct 2019 3:00 US API weekly crude imports 30 Sep, w/e #N/P #N/P Number of 47.2

9 Oct 2019 3:00 US API weekly product imports 30 Sep, w/e #N/P #N/P Number of 0.6

9 Oct 2019 3:00 US API weekly crude runs 30 Sep, w/e #N/P #N/P Number of 45

9 Oct 2019 3:00 US API Cushing number 30 Sep, w/e #N/P #N/P Number of 879

9 Oct 2019 16:30 US MBA Mortgage Applications 4 Oct, w/e 8.1% Percent 50.3

9 Oct 2019 16:30 US Mortgage Market Index 4 Oct, w/e 553.8 Index 195

9 Oct 2019 16:30 US MBA Purchase Index 4 Oct, w/e 263.8 Index 22500

9 Oct 2019 16:30 US Mortgage Refinance Index 4 Oct, w/e 2,202.6 Index -10.1

9 Oct 2019 16:30 US MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate 4 Oct, w/e 3.99% Percent 0.2

9 Oct 2019 19:30 US JOLTS Job Openings Aug 7.217M Person 0.2

9 Oct 2019 19:30 US Wholesale Invt(y), R MM Aug 0.4% 0.4% Percent 52

9 Oct 2019 19:30 US Wholesale Sales MM Aug 0.3% Percent

9 Oct 2019 20:00 US EIA Weekly Crude Stocks 4 Oct, w/e 3.100M Barrel 50.6

9 Oct 2019 20:00 US EIA Weekly Dist. Stocks 4 Oct, w/e -2.418M Barrel

9 Oct 2019 20:00 US EIA Weekly Gasoline Stk 4 Oct, w/e -0.228M Barrel

9 Oct 2019 20:00 US EIA Weekly Crude Imports 4 Oct, w/e 0.029M Barrel

9 Oct 2019 20:00 US EIA Weekly Rfg Stocks 4 Oct, w/e -0.002M Barrel

9 Oct 2019 20:00 US EIA Weekly Heatoil Stock 4 Oct, w/e 0.481M Barrel

9 Oct 2019 20:00 US EIA Weekly Prods Imports 4 Oct, w/e -0.427M Barrel/Day

9 Oct 2019 20:00 US EIA Weekly Dist Output 4 Oct, w/e -0.187M Barrel/Day

9 Oct 2019 20:00 US EIA Weekly Crude Runs 4 Oct, w/e -0.496M Barrel/Day

9 Oct 2019 20:00 US EIA Weekly Refining Util 4 Oct, w/e -3.4% Percent

9 Oct 2019 20:00 US EIA Wkly Crude Cushing 4 Oct, w/e -0.201M Barrel

9 Oct 2019 20:00 US EIA Weekly Gasoline O/P 4 Oct, w/e -0.159M Barrel/Day

9 Oct 2019 20:30 US TR IPSOS PCSI Oct 58.94 Index (diffusion)

9 Oct 2019 23:00 US EIA Ethanol Ref Stk 4 Oct, w/e 23,219k Barrel

9 Oct 2019 23:00 US EIA Ethanol Fuel Total 4 Oct, w/e 958k Barrel/Day

10 Oct 2019 4:31 UK RICS Housing Survey Sep -7 -4 Net balance

10 Oct 2019 7:30 CHINA Total Social Financing Sep 1,800.00B 1,980.00B CNY

10 Oct 2019 14:00 UK GDP Est 3M/3M Aug 0.1% 0.0% Percent

10 Oct 2019 14:00 UK GDP Estimate MM Aug 0.0% 0.3% Percent

10 Oct 2019 14:00 UK GDP Estimate YY Aug 1.0% 1.0% Percent

10 Oct 2019 14:00 UK Services MM Aug 0.3% Percent

10 Oct 2019 14:00 UK Services YY Aug 1.4% Percent

10 Oct 2019 14:00 UK Industrial Output MM Aug -0.1% 0.1% Percent

10 Oct 2019 14:00 UK Industrial Output YY Aug -0.9% -0.9% Percent

10 Oct 2019 14:00 UK Manufacturing Output MM Aug -0.1% 0.3% Percent

10 Oct 2019 14:00 UK Manufacturing Output YY Aug -0.7% -0.6% Percent

CURRENCY


10 Oct 2019 14:00 UK Construction O/P Vol MM Aug -0.3% 0.5% Percent

10 Oct 2019 14:00 UK Construction O/P Vol YY Aug -0.2% 0.3% Percent

10 Oct 2019 14:00 UK Goods Trade Balance GBP Aug -10.00B -9.14B GBP

10 Oct 2019 14:00 UK Goods Trade Bal. Non-EU Aug -2.800B -1.932B GBP

10 Oct 2019 15:30 UK TR IPSOS PCSI Oct 48.08 Index (diffusion)

10 Oct 2019 18:00 US Core CPI MM, SA Sep 0.2% 0.3% Percent

10 Oct 2019 18:00 US Core CPI YY, NSA Sep 2.4% 2.4% Percent

10 Oct 2019 18:00 US CPI Index, NSA Sep 256.558 Index

10 Oct 2019 18:00 US Core CPI Index, SA Sep 264.25 Index

10 Oct 2019 18:00 US CPI MM, SA Sep 0.1% 0.1% Percent

10 Oct 2019 18:00 US CPI YY, NSA Sep 1.8% 1.7% Percent

10 Oct 2019 18:00 US Real Weekly Earnings MM Sep 0.6% Percent

10 Oct 2019 18:00 US CPI MM NSA Sep -0.010% Percent

10 Oct 2019 18:00 US CPI Index SA Sep 256.300 Index

10 Oct 2019 18:00 US Corn Export Sales New 3 Oct, w/e 615.20k Tonne

10 Oct 2019 18:00 US Corn Export Sales Net 3 Oct, w/e 562.600k Tonne

10 Oct 2019 18:00 US Corn Exp Sale Next Yr Net 3 Oct, w/e 2.50k Tonne

10 Oct 2019 18:00 US Corn Exp Sales Net Total 3 Oct, w/e 565.10k Tonne

10 Oct 2019 18:00 US Soybean Export Sales New 3 Oct, w/e 2,093.900k Tonne

10 Oct 2019 18:00 US Soybean Export Sales Net 3 Oct, w/e 2,076.200k Tonne

10 Oct 2019 18:00 US Soybean Exp Sale Next Yr Net 3 Oct, w/e 0.00k Tonne

10 Oct 2019 18:00 US Soybean Exp Sale Net Total 3 Oct, w/e 2,076.20k Tonne

10 Oct 2019 18:00 US Soybeanmeal Exp Sale Net 3 Oct, w/e 21.50k Tonne

10 Oct 2019 18:00 US Soymeal Exp Sls Next Yr Net 3 Oct, w/e 136.80k Tonne

10 Oct 2019 18:00 US Soybn Meal Exp Sls Net Total 3 Oct, w/e 158.30k Tonne

10 Oct 2019 18:00 US Soybeanoil Exp Sales Net 3 Oct, w/e 2.50k Tonne

10 Oct 2019 18:00 US Soybn Oil Exp Sls Nxt Yr Net 3 Oct, w/e 0.00k Tonne

10 Oct 2019 18:00 US Soybn Oil Exp Sls Net Total 3 Oct, w/e 2.50k Tonne

10 Oct 2019 18:00 US Wheat Export Sales New 3 Oct, w/e 411.300k Tonne

10 Oct 2019 18:00 US Wheat Export Sales Net 3 Oct, w/e 328.500k Tonne

10 Oct 2019 18:00 US Wheat Exp Sale Next Yr Net 3 Oct, w/e 0.00k Tonne

10 Oct 2019 18:00 US Wheat Exp Sale Net Total 3 Oct, w/e 328.50k Tonne

10 Oct 2019 18:00 US Beef Export Sales New 3 Oct, w/e 14.100k Tonne

10 Oct 2019 18:00 US Beef Export Sales Net 3 Oct, w/e 12.500k Tonne

10 Oct 2019 18:00 US Up Cotton Exp Sales New 3 Oct, w/e 180.900k Number of

10 Oct 2019 18:00 US Up Cotton Exp Sales Net 3 Oct, w/e 177.900k Number of

10 Oct 2019 18:00 US US Pork Export Sales New 3 Oct, w/e 33.900k Tonne

10 Oct 2019 18:00 US US Pork Export Sales Net 3 Oct, w/e 30.900k Tonne

10 Oct 2019 18:00 US Initial Jobless Claims 5 Oct, w/e 217k 219k Person

10 Oct 2019 18:00 US Jobless Claims 4-Wk Avg 5 Oct, w/e 212.50k Person

10 Oct 2019 18:00 US Continued Jobless Claims 28 Sep, w/e 1.651M Person

10 Oct 2019 20:00 US EIA- Nat Gas, Change Bcf 4 Oct, w/e 112B Cubic foot

10 Oct 2019 20:00 US Nat Gas-EIA Implied Flow 4 Oct, w/e 112B Cubic foot

10 Oct 2019 20:30 US Cleveland Fed CPI Sep 0.2% Percent

10 Oct 2019 21:30 US Fla Orange Output 19/20 Aug 71.6M Number of

10 Oct 2019 21:30 US World Soy E/S 19/20 Oct 99.19M Tonne

10 Oct 2019 21:30 US WSD-Soybean E/S 18/19 Oct 1,005.00M Bushel (56lb)

10 Oct 2019 21:30 US World Wheat E/S 19/20 Oct 286.51M Tonne

10 Oct 2019 21:30 US WSD-Wheat Endstocks18/19 Oct 1.072B Bushel (56lb)

10 Oct 2019 23:30 US Federal Budget,$ Sep -200.00B USD

10 Oct 2019 CHINA M2 Money Supply YY Sep 8.2% 8.2% Percent

10 Oct 2019 CHINA New Yuan Loans Sep 1,370.0B 1,210.0B CNY

10 Oct 2019 CHINA Outstanding Loan Growth Sep 12.3% 12.4% Percent

10 Oct 2019 CHINA FDI (YTD) Sep 6.90% Percent

11 Oct 2019 7:30 CHINA TR IPSOS PCSI Oct 68.54 Index (diffusion)

11 Oct 2019 18:00 US Import Prices MM Sep -0.1% -0.5% Percent

11 Oct 2019 18:00 US Export Prices MM Sep 0.0% -0.6% Percent

11 Oct 2019 19:30 US U Mich Sentiment Prelim Oct 92.0 93.2 Index

11 Oct 2019 19:30 US U Mich Conditions Prelim Oct 108.0 108.5 Index

11 Oct 2019 19:30 US U Mich Expectations Prelim Oct 81.7 83.4 Index

11 Oct 2019 19:30 US U Mich 1Yr Inf Prelim Oct 2.8% Percent

11 Oct 2019 19:30 US U Mich 5-Yr Inf Prelim Oct 2.4% Percent

CURRENCY


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