RUC-APS ONLINE WORKSHOP · RUC-APS YEAR 4 HIGHLIGHTS - #RUCAPS2020 – Enhancing and implementing...

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RUC-APS YEAR 4 HIGHLIGHTS - # RUCAPS2020 www.ruc-aps.eu Enhancing and implementing Knowledge based ICT solutions within high Risk and Uncertain Conditions for Agriculture Production Systems (RUC-APS) May 12 th to May 29 th , 2020 www.ruc-aps.eu # RUCAPS2020 RUC-APS ONLINE WORKSHOP

Transcript of RUC-APS ONLINE WORKSHOP · RUC-APS YEAR 4 HIGHLIGHTS - #RUCAPS2020 – Enhancing and implementing...

Page 1: RUC-APS ONLINE WORKSHOP · RUC-APS YEAR 4 HIGHLIGHTS - #RUCAPS2020 – Enhancing and implementing Knowledge based ICT solutions within high Risk and Uncertain Conditions for Agriculture

RUC-APS YEAR 4 HIGHLIGHTS - #RUCAPS2020 – www.ruc-aps.eu

Enhancing and implementing Knowledge based ICT solutions within high Risk and Uncertain

Conditions for Agriculture Production Systems (RUC-APS)

May 12th to May 29th, 2020

www.ruc-aps.eu

#RUCAPS2020

RUC-APS ONLINE WORKSHOP

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Modelling and Simulation in Agri-Food Domains. The challenge to embrace reality with a variety of

simulation tools

Dr. Jorge Hernandez

www.ruc-aps.eu

#RUCAPS2020

RUC-APS ONLINE WORKSHOP

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Agenda

• RUC-APS Project

• Multi-Criteria Decisions Analysis

• GRAI Methodology

• System Dynamics

• Discrete Event Simulation

• Online survey

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H2020 RUC-APS Project⚜Funding body: EU H2020 Framework ⚜Call: H2020-MSCA-RISE-2015⚜Topic area: “Marie Skłodowska-Curie Research and Innovation Staff Exchange (RISE)”⚜Project duration: 48 months (started on 3/10/2016)⚜Overall Budget: €1.3M⚜Web-site: www.ruc-aps.eu

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REVIEW RUC-APS MISSION“SUPPORT FARMERS DECISION-MAKING ONCE THEY ARE FACING HIGHUNCERTAINTY AND RISK WITHIN A VALUE CHAIN IMPLICATION VIEW”

REVIEW RUC-APS VISION“TO BE A CONSOLIDATED AND COMPETITIVE INTERNATIONAL AND

MULTIDISCIPLINARY CONSORTIUM TO PROVIDE PARTICIPATORY ANDCOLLABORATIVE SOLUTIONS TO AGRICULTURE VALUE CHAIN

STAKEHOLDERS CHALLENGES AND REQUIREMENTS”

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What is a Supply chain?

Source: Food Safety Magazine 07.11.2017 (https://www.foodsafetymagazine.com/enewsletter/into-the-cold-abyss-of-food-waste/)

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This animation shows a time lapse of sea surface salinity and soil moisture

(underground water consumption)

Map of global temperatures in 2017 compared to 1981-2010 average (https://www.climate.gov)

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THE RUC-APS AGRI-FOOD VALUE CHAIN MODEL

Seed

ProducersSeed

merchants

Agrochemica

lproviders

(Fertilizer,Pesticide)

Resources

(Labour,

water,Energy,

Equiptment,Machiinery,

Seedling,

seed)

Distribution

Centre

Technology

Providers

Agronomist

advisors

(public,private)

Logistics

(transport)

Farmers

(canalso

producetheir own

seeds)

Logistics

(storage,

Distribution,Packaging,

Processing)

WasteManagement

DIstribution

Centre

Eco-Service

Providers

Marketing

Certifyassociation

Wholesaler

(Local&

Global)

Logistician

(e-retail)

Retailer

(Local&

Global)

End-products

waste

management

Directsales

(hotels,

restaurants,consumers,

local&Gloabal)

Energy

Customer

Procesor

Quality(Marks)

Technology

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The proposed RUC-APS Framework (Integrated view)

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THE RUC-APS CONSORTIUMCountry Acronym Participant

ULIV University of Liverpool

UoP University of Plymouth

RP Riviera Produce

IFA Innovation for Agriculture

CNR- ISPACNR - Istituto di Scienze delle Produzioni

Alimentari

ALSIAAgenzia Lucana di Sviluppo e di Innovazione

in Agricoltura

AINIA Food Innovation Technology Center

BDI Bretagne Développement Innovation

INIANational Agriculture Institute of Chile –

Ministry of Agriculture

BBLOOCK BBlock SmarThinking

Country Acronym Participant

ISBPANIntelligent Systems Laboratory - Systems

Research Institute Polish Academy of Science

FEDACOVA Valencian Agri-Food Business Federation

UPV Universitat Politècnica de València

UNLP-FIFaculty of informatics - Universidad de La

Plata

UNLP-FASFFaculty of Agronomy and Natural Sciences -

Universidad de La Plata

UT1 Université Toulouse 1 Capitole

UL TELECOM Nancy - University of Lorraine

SV ServiVerde

SENSING Digital Stream (DS)

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Knowing agri-Food Challenges in real and global interconnected world

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The modelling & Simulation applications

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What is Operations Management?

What is Supply Chain Management

What is Management?

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Multi-Criteria Decision-Making

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Producers(sellers)

Market (Buyers)

payment

Information/ communication

Action/ decision

THE KEY CHALLENGE IS TO BE AS LEAN AS POSSIBLE, TO REDUCE WASTE, BUT ALSO TO INCREASE PROFIT AND DEAL WITH UNCERTAINTY (Climate, Market, Regulations, Prices…)

traders processorsWholesalers/

retailers

value

A simple supply Chain view

Goods / services

UNDERSTANDING AGRICULTURAL CHAINS TOWARDS ENHANCED MARKET ACCESS Nerlita M. Manalili VREDESEILANDEN, 2015

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Shifting Trend

16

Produce first

Then sellKnow market

Then Produce

to

Specifications

Requires farmers’ awareness of :

• who their end consumers are

• in what agricultural chain they are in

UNDERSTANDING AGRICULTURAL CHAINS TOWARDS ENHANCED MARKET ACCESS Nerlita M. ManaliliVREDESEILANDEN, 2015

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Challenges and motivations

17

• Understanding Agri-Food Supply Chains requires a detailed view ofupstream and downstream relationships amongst suppliers andcustomers and consider the current regulation.

• Agri-Food decision-makers are facing several market challenges,specially in adapting to the externalities they cannot control(technological innovation, new nutritional market demands,economy, political markets, food security and climate change).

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THIS RESEARCH IS ORIENTED TO

Provide a better understanding and visualisation for Agriculture stakeholders considering

• Current climate and market challenges (internal and external).

• The need to support a decision-making process timely and efficiently.

• The up-to-date inputs from real industry life agriculture stakeholders from an international point view

• PROVIDE AN CLEAR VISUALISATION ON PRIORITIES TO SUPPORT OPERATIONS MANEGEMENT ORIENTED SOLUTIONS

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Methodology• AHP developed by Saati

• Method for ranking decision alternatives and selecting the best one when the decision maker has multiple objectives, or criteria

Pairwise Comparisons

• Used to score each alternative on a criterion

• Compare two alternatives according to a criterion and indicate the preference using a preference scale

• Standard scale used in AHP

Preference Level Numeric

al Value

Equally preferred 1

Equally to moderately

preferred

2

Moderately preferred 3

Moderately to strongly

preferred

4

Strongly preferred 5

Strongly to very strongly

preferred

6

Very strongly preferred 7

Very strongly to

extremely preferred

8

Extremely preferred 9

NOT NEW, BUT USEFUL

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Consistency Ratio

• The AHP provides a measure of the consistency of pairwise comparison judgments by computing a consistency ratio.• The ratio is designed in such a way that values of the ratio exceeding 0.10 are

indicative of inconsistent judgments.

• Although the exact mathematical computation of the consistency ratio is beyond the scope of this text, an approximation of the ratio can be obtained.

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Procedure: Estimating Consistency Ratio - 1

Step 1: Multiply each value in the first column of the pairwise comparison matrix by the relative priority of the first item considered. Same procedures for other items. Sum the values across the rows to obtain a vector of values labeled “weighted sum.”

Step 2: Divide the elements of the vector of weighted sums obtained in Step 1 by the corresponding priority value.

Step 3: Compute the average of the values computed in step 2. This average is denoted as lmax.

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Procedure: Estimating Consistency Ratio - 2

Step 4: Compute the consistency index (CI):

Where n is the number of items being compared

Step 5: Compute the consistency ratio (CR):

Where RI is the random index, which is the consistency index of a randomly generated pairwise comparison matrix. It can be shown that RI depends on the number of elements being compared and takes on the following values.

1n

nλCI max

−=

RI

CICR =

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Random Index

• Random index (RI) is the consistency index of a randomly generated pairwise comparison matrix.• RI depends on the number of elements being

compared (i.e., size of pairwise comparison matrix) and takes on the following values:

n 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

RI 0.00 0.00 0.58 0.90 1.12 1.24 1.32 1.41 1.45 1.49

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QUESTION MARK?

FROM AN OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT POINT OF VIEW, IT IS POSSIBLE LINK THEORY AND PRACTICE?

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RUC-APS AIM

Support agriculture supply chain stakeholders decision-making once they face high uncertainty and risk

THE QUESTION TO AGRICULTURE STAKEHOLDERS (RUC-APS validated)

Considering any uncertain situation you normally face, what are the most relevant aspects you consider in order to make decision over which a good or bad decision will affect positively or negatively the sector?

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Method

• Primary data collected from survey to agriculture stakehodlersexperts during 2016-2017 in order establish the key set of criteria.

Introduce the production to more stable markets

Increase the profit

Have a good life by doing farming

Mechanise and reduce the costs

Establish a formal selling point

Have quick and reliable access to information

Increase access to market information

Planning the Production

Increase the homogeneity of production (quality and volume)

Mechanize production

Have a contract

Provide and produce what is required by the market

Cropping planning regarding to the market

Get High quality support

Add value to production

Sustainable access to knowledge exchange

Count to with high quality vegetable varieties

Reduce wastes

Provide ICT’s to rural sectors

Provide logistics/transport access

Reduce seasonality of production

Automated irrigation system

That the profitability of the vegetable business generates income for the family's luxury

That the rural roads are of good quality

Mechanise specialisation

Technology implementation

Get technical assistance

Verbal or written business relationship

Planting programming

Programming pre-known planting

Anticipate harvest period

Have good source information, safe and reliable

Short-term analysis

Activities such as field days, agricultural fairs and exploitation

Introduce the production to more stable markets

Increase the profit

Have a good life by doing farming

Mechanise and reduce the costs

Establish a formal selling point

Have quick and reliable access to information

Increase access to market information

Planning the Production

Increase the homogeneity of production (quality and volume)

Mechanize production

Have a contract

Provide and produce what is required by the market

Cropping planning regarding to the market

Get High quality support

Add value to production

Sustainable access to knowledge exchange

Count to with high quality vegetable varieties

Reduce wastes

Provide ICT’s to rural sectors

Provide logistics/transport access

Reduce seasonality of production

Automated irrigation system

That the profitability of the vegetable business generates income for the family's luxury

That the rural roads are of good quality

Mechanise specialisation

Technology implementation

Get technical assistance

Verbal or written business relationship

Planting programming

Programming pre-known planting

Anticipate harvest period

Have good source information, safe and reliable

Short-term analysis

Activities such as field days, agricultural fairs and exploitation

Introduce the production to more stable markets

Increase the profit

Have a good life by doing farming

Mechanise and reduce the costs

Establish a formal selling point

Have quick and reliable access to information

Increase access to market information

Planning the Production

Increase the homogeneity of production (quality and volume)

Mechanize production

Have a contract

Provide and produce what is required by the market

Cropping planning regarding to the market

Get High quality support

Add value to production

Sustainable access to knowledge exchange

Count to with high quality vegetable varieties

Reduce wastes

Provide ICT’s to rural sectors

Provide logistics/transport access

Reduce seasonality of production

Automated irrigation system

That the profitability of the vegetable business generates income for the family's luxury

That the rural roads are of good quality

Mechanise specialisation

Technology implementation

Get technical assistance

Verbal or written business relationship

Planting programming

Programming pre-known planting

Anticipate harvest period

Have good source information, safe and reliable

Short-term analysis

Activities such as field days, agricultural fairs and exploitation

Many Criteria required to be classified an prioritised

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Method

• Primary data collected from survey to agriculture stakeholders experts during 2016-2018 to select Key criteria and Alternatives.

C1Introduce the production

to more stable markets

C2 Increase the profit

C3Have a good life by doing

farming

C4Mechanise and reduce

the costs

C5Establish a formal selling

point

C6Have quick and reliable

access to information

ALT1: Offer flexible decision support system tools for different sectors

ALT2: Mentoring Farmers for business and entrepreneurship

ALT3: enhance the use of digital information systems for farmers training

ALT4: Provide assessment services to farmers to improve food safety and

implement a quality control system

ALT5: Create a collaborative group dealing with regulations rules and law aspects

in collaboration with agri-food stakeholders and public administration.

International Top 6 ranked criteria's

International Top 5 ranked alternatives

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Method• Primary data collected from focus groups meetings with stakeholders

during 2017-2018 to evaluate the selected criteria – within a view on uncertainties in regulations

Valencia, Spain20 stakeholders

Metaponto, Italy30 stakeholders

La Plata, Argentina25 stakeholders

Liskeard, UK15 stakeholders

Santiago, Chile21 stakeholders

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Results – two iterationsReach theoretical consistency wasDifficult, so 0.2 was accepted.

C1Introduce the production

to more stable markets

C2 Increase the profit

C3Have a good life by doing

farming

C4Mechanise and reduce

the costs

C5Establish a formal selling

point

C6Have quick and reliable

access to information

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Results – two iterationsReach theoretical consistency wasDifficult, so 0.2 was accepted.

SIMILAR BEHAVIOUR SIMILAR BEHAVIOURC1

Introduce the production

to more stable markets

C2 Increase the profit

C3Have a good life by doing

farming

C4Mechanise and reduce

the costs

C5Establish a formal selling

point

C6Have quick and reliable

access to information

Very consistent

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Results – two iterations – International view

ALL EU SA

C1 16% 12% 29%

C2 24% 24% 14%

C3 18% 9% 23%

C4 15% 21% 11%

C5 8% 15% 7%

C6 19% 20% 16%

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Results – two iterations – International view

ALL EU SA

C1 16% 12% 29%

C2 24% 24% 14%

C3 18% 9% 23%

C4 15% 21% 11%

C5 8% 15% 7%

C6 19% 20% 16%

C1Introduce the production

to more stable markets

C2 Increase the profit

C3Have a good life by doing

farming

C4Mechanise and reduce

the costs

C5Establish a formal selling

point

C6Have quick and reliable

access to information

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Considering the evaluation of each alternative for each criteria

Altarnatives Chile Argentina Italy UK Spain

ALT1 20.170% 17.166% 23.029% 9.760% 6.217%

ALT2 19.965% 24.469% 19.704% 27.808% 20.663%

ALT3 24.040% 32.441% 23.883% 17.774% 21.875%

ALT4 17.398% 11.581% 12.852% 24.763% 27.023%

ALT5 29.429% 18.128% 19.566% 25.600% 28.305%

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Considering the evaluation of each alternative for each criteria

Alternatives Chile pts

ALT5 0.294294 5ALT3 0.240404 4ALT1 0.201704 3ALT2 0.199653 2

ALT4 0.173977 1

Altarnatives Argentina pts

ALT3 0.324413 5ALT2 0.24469 4ALT5 0.181279 3ALT1 0.171658 2

ALT4 0.115813 1

Alternatives Italy ptsALT3 0.238827 5

ALT1 0.230289 4ALT2 0.197042 3

ALT5 0.195661 2ALT4 0.128521 1

Alternatives UK pts

ALT2 0.278084 5ALT5 0.255997 4ALT4 0.247632 3ALT3 0.177738 2

ALT1 0.097599 1

Alternatives Spain ptsALT5 0.283046 5

ALT4 0.270225 4ALT3 0.218745 3

ALT2 0.206633 2ALT1 0.062171 1

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Considering the evaluation of each alternative for each criteria

ALT1: Offer flexible decision support system tools for different sectors

ALT2: Mentoring Farmers for business and entrepreneurship

ALT3: enhance the use of digital information systems for farmers training

ALT4: Provide assessment services to farmers to improve food safety and

implement a quality control system

ALT5: Create a collaborative group dealing with regulations rules and law aspects

in collaboration with agri-food stakeholders and public administration.

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Considering the evaluation of each alternative for each criteria

ALT1: Offer flexible decision support system tools for different sectors

ALT2: Mentoring Farmers for business and entrepreneurship

ALT3: enhance the use of digital information systems for farmers training

ALT4: Provide assessment services to farmers to improve food safety and

implement a quality control system

ALT5: Create a collaborative group dealing with regulations rules and law aspects

in collaboration with agri-food stakeholders and public administration.

Chile Argentina Italy UK Spain

ALT3 4 5 5 2 3 19

ALT5 5 3 2 4 5 19

ALT2 2 4 3 5 2 16

ALT1 3 2 4 1 1 11

ALT4 1 1 1 3 4 10

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Considering the evaluation of each alternative for each criteria

ALT1: Offer flexible decision support system tools for different sectors

ALT2: Mentoring Farmers for business and entrepreneurship

ALT3: enhance the use of digital information systems for farmers training

ALT4: Provide assessment services to farmers to improve food safety and

implement a quality control system

ALT5: Create a collaborative group dealing with regulations rules and law aspects

in collaboration with agri-food stakeholders and public administration.

Chile Argentina Italy UK Spain

ALT3 4 5 5 2 3 19

ALT5 5 3 2 4 5 19

ALT2 2 4 3 5 2 16

ALT1 3 2 4 1 1 11

ALT4 1 1 1 3 4 10

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GRAI - Graphs with Results and Actions Inter-related

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Breeding based decision-making in Agri-FoodValue Chains

Sowing Material Choice

Breeding Strategy

Sowing Strategy

Experimental Design

Crop Management

Yield Evaluation

Product quality

analysis

Material Selection

Commercial Activity

International regulations

Breeding CroppingCommercialisation

FoodSafety

Breeding

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Breeding based decision-making in Agri-Food Value Chains

Breeding

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Sowing Material Choice

Breeding Strategy

Sowing Strategy

Experimental Design

Crop Management

Yield Evaluation

Product quality analysis

Material Selection

Commercial Activity

International regulations

Strategic decisions

Tactic Decisions

Operational decisions

Breeding based decision-making in Agri-FoodValue Chains

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Breeding based decision-making in Agri-FoodValue Chains

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Breeding based decision-making in Agri-Food Value Chains

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Breeding based decision-making in Agri-Food Value Chains

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Breeding based decision-making in Agri-Food Value Chains

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Breeding based decision-making in Agri-Food Value Chains

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Breeding based decision-making in Agri-Food Value Chains

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Breeding based decision-making in Agri-Food Value Chains

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0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

60

46

80

93

00

13

92

01

85

40

23

16

02

77

80

32

40

03

70

20

41

64

04

62

60

50

88

05

55

00

60

12

06

47

40

69

36

07

39

80

78

60

08

32

20

87

84

09

24

60

97

08

01

01

70

01

06

32

01

10

94

01

15

56

01

20

18

01

24

80

01

29

42

01

34

04

01

38

66

01

43

28

01

47

90

01

52

52

01

57

14

01

61

76

01

66

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01

71

00

01

75

62

01

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24

01

84

86

01

89

48

01

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01

98

72

02

03

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96

02

12

58

02

17

20

02

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82

02

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44

02

31

06

02

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68

02

40

30

02

44

92

02

49

54

02

54

16

02

58

78

02

63

40

02

68

02

02

72

64

02

77

26

02

81

88

02

86

50

02

91

12

02

95

74

03

00

36

03

04

98

03

09

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03

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22

03

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84

03

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03

28

08

03

32

70

03

37

32

03

41

94

03

46

56

03

51

18

0

TotalQuality AccumulativeAverage

84,11%

77,44%

58,65%56,33%

82,65%87,15%

Breeding based decision-making in Agri-Food Value Chains

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International

Union for the

Protection of

New Varieties of

Plants

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

60

12

30

02

45

40

36

78

04

90

20

61

26

07

35

00

85

74

09

79

80

11

02

20

12

24

60

13

47

00

14

69

40

15

91

80

17

14

20

18

36

60

19

59

00

20

81

40

22

03

80

23

26

20

24

48

60

25

71

00

26

93

40

28

15

80

29

38

20

30

60

60

31

83

00

33

05

40

34

27

80

UPOVrules

Breeding based decision-making in Agri-Food Value Chains

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0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

60

12

30

02

45

40

36

78

04

90

20

61

26

07

35

00

85

74

09

79

80

11

02

20

12

24

60

13

47

00

14

69

40

15

91

80

17

14

20

18

36

60

19

59

00

20

81

40

22

03

80

23

26

20

24

48

60

25

71

00

26

93

40

28

15

80

29

38

20

30

60

60

31

83

00

33

05

40

34

27

80

Seedstoragecriteria

Breeding based decision-making in Agri-Food Value Chains

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0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

60

12

30

02

45

40

36

78

04

90

20

61

26

07

35

00

85

74

09

79

80

11

02

20

12

24

60

13

47

00

14

69

40

15

91

80

17

14

20

18

36

60

19

59

00

20

81

40

22

03

80

23

26

20

24

48

60

25

71

00

26

93

40

28

15

80

29

38

20

30

60

60

31

83

00

33

05

40

34

27

80

sowexecution

Breeding based decision-making in Agri-Food Value Chains

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0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

60

12

30

02

45

40

36

78

04

90

20

61

26

07

35

00

85

74

09

79

80

11

02

20

12

24

60

13

47

00

14

69

40

15

91

80

17

14

20

18

36

60

19

59

00

20

81

40

22

03

80

23

26

20

24

48

60

25

71

00

26

93

40

28

15

80

29

38

20

30

60

60

31

83

00

33

05

40

34

27

80

Pesticideselected

Breeding based decision-making in Agri-Food Value Chains

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Row Labelsbreedercommertial managerfield technicianlab technicianworker

Breeding based decision-making in Agri-Food Value Chains

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breeder62%

commertialmanager

3%

fieldtechnician20%

labtechnician1%

worker14%

%PRESENCEINTHEBREEDINGPROCESS

Breeding based decision-making in Agri-Food Value Chains

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CommercialManager0% Breeder

12%

Worker28%

FieldTechnician53%

LabTechnician17%

Time%Distribution

CommercialManager Breeder Worker FieldTechnician LabTechnician1

Breeding based decision-making in Agri-Food Value Chains

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Posibles soluciones

Breeding based decision-making in Agri-FoodValue Chains

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System dynamics

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The Horticulture System Dynamic model

Venta de hortalizasAlmacenamiento y

distribucion

Calidad de la hortaliza

Precio hortaliza

Disponibilidad de

nutrientes

Uso de Plaguicida

Inocuidad

Eficiencia manejo

fitosanitarioExigencia del

consumidorRiesgo por exposicion

Pago valor

agregado

Mejoramiento

genetico

Potencial maximo

de rendimiento

Mano de obraVolumen hortaliza

Rendimiento

Produccion

Disponibilidad de

insumos

Ajuste ventana

comercial

Disponibilidad de

recursos

Recursos

economicos

Superficie cultivable

disponible

Adaptacion

cambio climatico

Disponibilidad

hidrica

Costo

produccion

Nivel de

tecnificacion

Transferencia

tecnologica

Mecanizacion

Nivel de

contrato

Nivel de

conocimiento del

mercado

Seleccion

idonea del

cultivoNivel de manejo

agronomico

Incertidumbre del

mercado

Incertidumbre

ambiental

Producto innocuo

Sustentabilidad del

medio ambiente

MIP

LMR

Decision adecuada

del gobierno

Salud del

consumidor

Nivel de consumo de

alimentos limpiosRiesgo deenfermedades

transmitidas poralimentos

Costo mano de

obra

Costo de

mecanizacion

Capacitacion

Costo de

capacitacion

Inocuidad

quimica

<Mecanizacion> <Rendimiento>

<Disponibilidad

hidrica>

<Adaptacion

cambio climatico>

<Mecanizacion>

<Nivel de manejo

agronomico>

<Nivel de manejo

agronomico>

<Transferencia

tecnologica>

<Ajuste ventana

comercial>

Demanda dehortaliza para

consumo fresconivel nacional

<MIP>

<Uso de Plaguicida>

Nivel de recursos

economicos del

consumidor

Nivel de conocimiento

de beneficios

nutricionales

Calidad en

etiquetados

campania de

informacion del

gobierno

Nivel de gusto y

preferencia del

consumidor

<Nivel de conocimiento

de beneficios

nutricionales>

<Exigencia del

consumidor>

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Venta de hortalizasAlmacenamiento y

distribucion

Calidad de la hortaliza

Precio hortaliza

Disponibilidad de

nutrientes

Uso de Plaguicida

Inocuidad

Eficiencia manejo

fitosanitarioExigencia del

consumidorRiesgo por exposicion

Pago valor

agregado

Mejoramiento

genetico

Potencial maximo

de rendimiento

Mano de obraVolumen hortaliza

Rendimiento

Produccion

Disponibilidad de

insumos

Ajuste ventana

comercial

Disponibilidad de

recursos

Recursos

economicos

Superficie cultivable

disponible

Adaptacion

cambio climatico

Disponibilidad

hidrica

Costo

produccion

Nivel de

tecnificacion

Transferencia

tecnologica

Mecanizacion

Nivel de

contrato

Nivel de

conocimiento del

mercado

Seleccion

idonea del

cultivoNivel de manejo

agronomico

Incertidumbre del

mercado

Incertidumbre

ambiental

Producto innocuo

Sustentabilidad del

medio ambiente

MIP

LMR

Decision adecuada

del gobierno

Salud del

consumidor

Nivel de consumo de

alimentos limpiosRiesgo deenfermedades

transmitidas poralimentos

Costo mano de

obra

Costo de

mecanizacion

Capacitacion

Costo de

capacitacion

Inocuidad

quimica

<Mecanizacion> <Rendimiento>

<Disponibilidad

hidrica>

<Adaptacion

cambio climatico>

<Mecanizacion>

<Nivel de manejo

agronomico>

<Nivel de manejo

agronomico>

<Transferencia

tecnologica>

<Ajuste ventana

comercial>

Demanda dehortaliza para

consumo fresconivel nacional

<MIP>

<Uso de Plaguicida>

Nivel de recursos

economicos del

consumidor

Nivel de conocimiento

de beneficios

nutricionales

Calidad en

etiquetados

campania de

informacion del

gobierno

Nivel de gusto y

preferencia del

consumidor

<Nivel de conocimiento

de beneficios

nutricionales>

<Exigencia del

consumidor>

Breeding

Producers

Food Safety

Logistics

Pricing

Quality

Regulations

Market demand

Technology Transfer

Pesticide

Labors

Uncertainties

The Horticulture System Dynamic model

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Causal-loop diagram for the food safety required conditions

Weather

control level

Pest level

Right region

locationGreenhouse

usagecost

Cropprotection

levelSoil Surface

explotation level

Soil nutrition

level

NPK

level

Irrigation

level

Pest impact

level

farmer preferences

accuracy

Chemical

products usage

conventional

usageOrganicusage

Crop selection

certainty

Fertiliser

usage

N

P

K

Contamination level

Fertilizarion

level NO3NH4

Food-safety

level

Heavy metal

levels

Uncertainty in

Water safety

Pesticide usage

level

Biological

control level

Agriculture farmer

knowledge level

MaximumPesticide

residual limitminimumtime to get

the fieldwithout

protection

Time betweenpesticide

appliaction andharvest

Chemical control

Global GAP

Level of production

quality standards

Registration of

sowing

Registration of

transplantationsSales

registration

Production and

yield registration

Pesticide usage

registrationPesticide

Warehouse qualityPesticide Warehouse

availability

trainning quality level

Management

quality

Sanitation

Food safety trainning

Food Handling

Pestice application

and management

First aid management

Production

Quality standard

Sales

Fertiliser

quality

+

++ + +

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

++ + +

+ +

++

+

+

++

+

--

-

+

+

+

-

+

++

+ -

+

+

-+

+

+

+

++

+

-

-

-

-

++

+-

-

+ +

+

+

+ +

+

+++

+

+

+

+ +

+

+

+

+

+

-

-

-

-

+

+

Venta de hortalizasAlmacenamiento y

distribucion

Calidad de la hortaliza

Precio hortaliza

Disponibilidad de

nutrientes

Uso de Plaguicida

Inocuidad

Eficiencia manejo

fitosanitarioExigencia del

consumidorRiesgo por exposicion

Pago valor

agregado

Mejoramiento

genetico

Potencial maximo

de rendimiento

Mano de obraVolumen hortaliza

Rendimiento

Produccion

Disponibilidad de

insumos

Ajuste ventana

comercial

Disponibilidad de

recursos

Recursos

economicos

Superficie cultivable

disponible

Adaptacion

cambio climatico

Disponibilidad

hidrica

Costo

produccion

Nivel de

tecnificacion

Transferencia

tecnologica

Mecanizacion

Nivel de

contrato

Nivel de

conocimiento del

mercado

Seleccion

idonea del

cultivoNivel de manejo

agronomico

Incertidumbre del

mercado

Incertidumbre

ambiental

Producto innocuo

Sustentabilidad del

medio ambiente

MIP

LMR

Decision adecuada

del gobierno

Salud del

consumidor

Nivel de consumo de

alimentos limpiosRiesgo deenfermedades

transmitidas poralimentos

Costo mano de

obra

Costo de

mecanizacion

Capacitacion

Costo de

capacitacion

Inocuidad

quimica

<Mecanizacion> <Rendimiento>

<Disponibilidad

hidrica>

<Adaptacion

cambio climatico>

<Mecanizacion>

<Nivel de manejo

agronomico>

<Nivel de manejo

agronomico>

<Transferencia

tecnologica>

<Ajuste ventana

comercial>

Demanda dehortaliza para

consumo fresconivel nacional

<MIP>

<Uso de Plaguicida>

Nivel de recursos

economicos del

consumidor

Nivel de conocimiento

de beneficios

nutricionales

Calidad en

etiquetados

campania de

informacion del

gobierno

Nivel de gusto y

preferencia del

consumidor

<Nivel de conocimiento

de beneficios

nutricionales>

<Exigencia del

consumidor>

Food Safety

Food Safety

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Causal-loop diagram for the food safety required conditions

Venta de hortalizasAlmacenamiento y

distribucion

Calidad de la hortaliza

Precio hortaliza

Disponibilidad de

nutrientes

Uso de Plaguicida

Inocuidad

Eficiencia manejo

fitosanitarioExigencia del

consumidorRiesgo por exposicion

Pago valor

agregado

Mejoramiento

genetico

Potencial maximo

de rendimiento

Mano de obraVolumen hortaliza

Rendimiento

Produccion

Disponibilidad de

insumos

Ajuste ventana

comercial

Disponibilidad de

recursos

Recursos

economicos

Superficie cultivable

disponible

Adaptacion

cambio climatico

Disponibilidad

hidrica

Costo

produccion

Nivel de

tecnificacion

Transferencia

tecnologica

Mecanizacion

Nivel de

contrato

Nivel de

conocimiento del

mercado

Seleccion

idonea del

cultivoNivel de manejo

agronomico

Incertidumbre del

mercado

Incertidumbre

ambiental

Producto innocuo

Sustentabilidad del

medio ambiente

MIP

LMR

Decision adecuada

del gobierno

Salud del

consumidor

Nivel de consumo de

alimentos limpiosRiesgo deenfermedades

transmitidas poralimentos

Costo mano de

obra

Costo de

mecanizacion

Capacitacion

Costo de

capacitacion

Inocuidad

quimica

<Mecanizacion> <Rendimiento>

<Disponibilidad

hidrica>

<Adaptacion

cambio climatico>

<Mecanizacion>

<Nivel de manejo

agronomico>

<Nivel de manejo

agronomico>

<Transferencia

tecnologica>

<Ajuste ventana

comercial>

Demanda dehortaliza para

consumo fresconivel nacional

<MIP>

<Uso de Plaguicida>

Nivel de recursos

economicos del

consumidor

Nivel de conocimiento

de beneficios

nutricionales

Calidad en

etiquetados

campania de

informacion del

gobierno

Nivel de gusto y

preferencia del

consumidor

<Nivel de conocimiento

de beneficios

nutricionales>

<Exigencia del

consumidor>

Food Safety

Food Safety

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Causal-loop diagram for the food safety required conditions

Food Safety

Unit Variable English version

years Agriculture farmer, knowledge level

Unit/ha soil Biological control level

mg/Kg soil Pesticide usage level

L/ d Irrigation level

yes or no Wheatear control level

infest/ha soil Pest level

mg N-P-K/ha soil NPK level

Kg Nitrogen/ ha soil N

Kg Phosphorus/ha soil P

Kg Potassium/ha soil K

Kg Nitrogen/ha + Kg Phosphorus/ha + Kg Potassium/ha soil Soil Nutrition level

% C soil content Right region location

m2/ha soil Greenhouse usage

Unit/$ Cost

% yield/ha soil Pest impact level

% soil erosion Soil surface exploitation level

mg pesticide/ha soil Crop protection level

yes or no Farmer preference accuracy

Total kg NPK/ha soil Fertilizer usage

variety/ha soil/season Crop selection certainty

mg chemical/ha soil Chemical product usage

m2/ha soil/season Conventional usage

m2/ha soil/season Organic usage

mg pesticide residue /kg soil Maximum residue level

N° applications/ days Time between pesticide application and harvest

days/season Minimum time to get the field without protection

mg pesticide residue/kg soil Chemical control

mg Pesticide residue/ lt water Uncertainty in water safety

kg fertilizer/ha soil Fertilization level

mg heavy metal/kg soil Heavy metal level

mg NH4 /kg soil NH4

mg NO3 /kg soil NO3

mg contamination /kg soil Contamination level

% (nutrient/ton fertilizer) Fertiliser quality

% (contamination/product) Food safety level

% (GAP/production) Level of production quality standards

% achievement GAP Global GAP

% (quality/storage) Pesticide Warehouse quality

% availabilty Pesticide Warehouse availability

% records Production and yield registration

% records Registration of transplantation

% (sales/ production) Sales registration

% registration Registration of sowing

% records Pesticide usage registration

% GAP/production Production quality standards

Unit/ $ Sales

% (training/production) Training quality level

% (application/regulations) Pesticide application and management

% (handling/ production) Food Handling

% First aid management

% (sanitation/proccess) Sanitation

% (GAP/production) Management quality

% training Training quality level

14/06/2017

ANALYSIS OF EVERY VARIABLE&

IDENTIFICATION OF DECISION ELEMENTS

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Causal-loop diagram for the food safety required conditionsFood Safety

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Producers

Venta de hortalizasAlmacenamiento y

distribucion

Calidad de la hortaliza

Precio hortaliza

Disponibilidad de

nutrientes

Uso de Plaguicida

Inocuidad

Eficiencia manejo

fitosanitarioExigencia del

consumidorRiesgo por exposicion

Pago valor

agregado

Mejoramiento

genetico

Potencial maximo

de rendimiento

Mano de obraVolumen hortaliza

Rendimiento

Produccion

Disponibilidad de

insumos

Ajuste ventana

comercial

Disponibilidad de

recursos

Recursos

economicos

Superficie cultivable

disponible

Adaptacion

cambio climatico

Disponibilidad

hidrica

Costo

produccion

Nivel de

tecnificacion

Transferencia

tecnologica

Mecanizacion

Nivel de

contrato

Nivel de

conocimiento del

mercado

Seleccion

idonea del

cultivoNivel de manejo

agronomico

Incertidumbre del

mercado

Incertidumbre

ambiental

Producto innocuo

Sustentabilidad del

medio ambiente

MIP

LMR

Decision adecuada

del gobierno

Salud del

consumidor

Nivel de consumo de

alimentos limpiosRiesgo deenfermedades

transmitidas poralimentos

Costo mano de

obra

Costo de

mecanizacion

Capacitacion

Costo de

capacitacion

Inocuidad

quimica

<Mecanizacion> <Rendimiento>

<Disponibilidad

hidrica>

<Adaptacion

cambio climatico>

<Mecanizacion>

<Nivel de manejo

agronomico>

<Nivel de manejo

agronomico>

<Transferencia

tecnologica>

<Ajuste ventana

comercial>

Demanda dehortaliza para

consumo fresconivel nacional

<MIP>

<Uso de Plaguicida>

Nivel de recursos

economicos del

consumidor

Nivel de conocimiento

de beneficios

nutricionales

Calidad en

etiquetados

campania de

informacion del

gobierno

Nivel de gusto y

preferencia del

consumidor

<Nivel de conocimiento

de beneficios

nutricionales>

<Exigencia del

consumidor>

Producers

Causal-loop diagram for the producers

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Venta de hortalizasAlmacenamiento y

distribucion

Calidad de la hortaliza

Precio hortaliza

Disponibilidad de

nutrientes

Uso de Plaguicida

Inocuidad

Eficiencia manejo

fitosanitarioExigencia del

consumidorRiesgo por exposicion

Pago valor

agregado

Mejoramiento

genetico

Potencial maximo

de rendimiento

Mano de obraVolumen hortaliza

Rendimiento

Produccion

Disponibilidad de

insumos

Ajuste ventana

comercial

Disponibilidad de

recursos

Recursos

economicos

Superficie cultivable

disponible

Adaptacion

cambio climatico

Disponibilidad

hidrica

Costo

produccion

Nivel de

tecnificacion

Transferencia

tecnologica

Mecanizacion

Nivel de

contrato

Nivel de

conocimiento del

mercado

Seleccion

idonea del

cultivoNivel de manejo

agronomico

Incertidumbre del

mercado

Incertidumbre

ambiental

Producto innocuo

Sustentabilidad del

medio ambiente

MIP

LMR

Decision adecuada

del gobierno

Salud del

consumidor

Nivel de consumo de

alimentos limpiosRiesgo deenfermedades

transmitidas poralimentos

Costo mano de

obra

Costo de

mecanizacion

Capacitacion

Costo de

capacitacion

Inocuidad

quimica

<Mecanizacion> <Rendimiento>

<Disponibilidad

hidrica>

<Adaptacion

cambio climatico>

<Mecanizacion>

<Nivel de manejo

agronomico>

<Nivel de manejo

agronomico>

<Transferencia

tecnologica>

<Ajuste ventana

comercial>

Demanda dehortaliza para

consumo fresconivel nacional

<MIP>

<Uso de Plaguicida>

Nivel de recursos

economicos del

consumidor

Nivel de conocimiento

de beneficios

nutricionales

Calidad en

etiquetados

campania de

informacion del

gobierno

Nivel de gusto y

preferencia del

consumidor

<Nivel de conocimiento

de beneficios

nutricionales>

<Exigencia del

consumidor>

Producers

Producers

Causal-loop diagram for the producers

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Venta de hortalizasAlmacenamiento y

distribucion

Calidad de la hortaliza

Precio hortaliza

Disponibilidad de

nutrientes

Uso de Plaguicida

Inocuidad

Eficiencia manejo

fitosanitarioExigencia del

consumidorRiesgo por exposicion

Pago valor

agregado

Mejoramiento

genetico

Potencial maximo

de rendimiento

Mano de obraVolumen hortaliza

Rendimiento

Produccion

Disponibilidad de

insumos

Ajuste ventana

comercial

Disponibilidad de

recursos

Recursos

economicos

Superficie cultivable

disponible

Adaptacion

cambio climatico

Disponibilidad

hidrica

Costo

produccion

Nivel de

tecnificacion

Transferencia

tecnologica

Mecanizacion

Nivel de

contrato

Nivel de

conocimiento del

mercado

Seleccion

idonea del

cultivoNivel de manejo

agronomico

Incertidumbre del

mercado

Incertidumbre

ambiental

Producto innocuo

Sustentabilidad del

medio ambiente

MIP

LMR

Decision adecuada

del gobierno

Salud del

consumidor

Nivel de consumo de

alimentos limpiosRiesgo deenfermedades

transmitidas poralimentos

Costo mano de

obra

Costo de

mecanizacion

Capacitacion

Costo de

capacitacion

Inocuidad

quimica

<Mecanizacion> <Rendimiento>

<Disponibilidad

hidrica>

<Adaptacion

cambio climatico>

<Mecanizacion>

<Nivel de manejo

agronomico>

<Nivel de manejo

agronomico>

<Transferencia

tecnologica>

<Ajuste ventana

comercial>

Demanda dehortaliza para

consumo fresconivel nacional

<MIP>

<Uso de Plaguicida>

Nivel de recursos

economicos del

consumidor

Nivel de conocimiento

de beneficios

nutricionales

Calidad en

etiquetados

campania de

informacion del

gobierno

Nivel de gusto y

preferencia del

consumidor

<Nivel de conocimiento

de beneficios

nutricionales>

<Exigencia del

consumidor>

Producers

Producers

Causal-loop diagram for the producers

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Discrete event simulation

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Discrete-Event Simulation to support precission Farming decisión-Makingprocess in Basilicata - Italy

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Discrete-Event Simulation to support precission Farming decision-Makingprocess in Basilicata - Italy

Challenges/Requirements

• Understand current capacity levels.

• Find better ways to perform the operations in the greenhouse.

• Identify key bottlenecks in the systems.

• Evaluate potential scenarios for improvement.

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Discrete-Event Simulation to support precission Farming decisión-Makingprocess in Basilicat - Italy

Conveyors

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Scenario 1 – Number of Operators vs Conveyors utilization

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Scenario 1 – Number of Operators vs System utilization

100%

ScenarioConveyor

sUTIL

crop

.Maximu

m

Arrivals

Operator

.QuantityFx_OUT

38 106 7 2 5

39 106 7 3 5

40 106 7 4 5

41 106 7 5 5

42 106 7 6 5

111 106 7 7 5

112 106 7 8 5

113 106 7 9 5

114 106 7 10 5

192 106 20 2 5

193 106 20 3 5

194 106 20 4 5

195 106 20 5 5

196 106 20 6 5

197 106 20 7 5

198 106 20 8 5

199 106 20 9 5

200 106 20 10 5

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Scenario 2 – Number of Operators vs crops arrival – Processed crops

61

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Scenario 2 – Number of Operators vs crops arrival – Processed crops

61

Scenario Fx_OUT

crop

.Maximum

Arrivals

Operator

.Quantity

9 44 20 19

13 61 6 12

14 61 6 20

29 61 6 10

42 44 20 13

45 44 20 17

52 61 6 8

53 44 20 3

58 44 20 15

64 61 6 6

71 61 6 9

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Final remarks

Modelling is just a tool.

Modelling tools helps to solver a problem an to find a solution….not

the opposite.

Innovation and open minds are required to excel modelling processes.

Academic Modelling is interesting…but has to useful and

understandable for stakeholders…

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Proposes PhD Research Topics

1. An integrated International Food Demand and Food Safety Framework

2. Collaborative Agri-Food Decision-Making supported by standardised cloud-based tools

3. Risk Management Strategies to decentralise Farmers Supply Chain Management

4. Standarised strategies balance Producer and Consumer Preferences to better mitigateand adapt to Climate Change

5. Business Management for fresh products packaging in international Agri-Food SupplyChains.

6. Collaborative strategies to established food Policy in Developing Countries while facingFood Crisis and uncertainty in cross-border regulations.

7. …

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PUBLIC CONSULTATION

AGRI-FOOD VALUE CHAIN CHALLENGES

www.menti.com

35 22 87

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Enhancing and implementing Knowledge based ICT solutions within high Risk and Uncertain

Conditions for Agriculture Production Systems (RUC-APS)

May 12th to May 29th, 2020

www.ruc-aps.eu

#RUCAPS2020

RUC-APS ONLINE WORKSHOP