RTM Phase B SkyTrain Fleet Order Strategy

Report

SkyTrain Fleet Order StrategyFor a Network expanding to Expo, Millennium and Evergreen

An Analysis with the Regional Transit Model (RTM)

Total Rolling Stock Capacity (Seat and Standing)

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

55000

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

MaxCap FastMaxCap Slow3-Car Mix2-Car Only

Canada Line Opens

Evergreen Line Opens

All Mark I cars Retires Before Broadway West

Vancouver, B.C. / Wilmington, DE, August 2008

PTV America Inc.

408-675 West Hastings Street Vancouver, BC, V6B 1N2

(604) 435-2895

South Coast British Columbia

Transportation Authority 4720 Kingsway, Suite 1600

Burnaby, B.C., V5H 4N2 (604) 453 3058

SkyTrain Fleet Order Strategy

PTV America Inc. / TransLink 13-August-2008

Table of Contents

1. Introduction .................................................................................................................. 4

2. Assumptions ................................................................................................................ 5

2.1. Fleet and Orders 5

2.2. Operations Scenarios 6

3. Order Strategies ........................................................................................................... 8

3.1. Demand 8

3.2. Order Timelines 9

3.3. Measures of Performance 12

4. Conclusions ................................................................................................................ 16



Tables

Table 1: Order Strategies ........................................................................................................ 4

Table 2: Capacities for Various Train Types ........................................................................... 5

Table 3: Operations Scenarios at a Glance ............................................................................ 6

Table 4: Operations Scenario .................................................................................................. 7

Table 5: M-II Train Unit Orders ................................................................................................ 9

Figures

Figure 1: Fleet Size in Train Units for Order Strategy “MaxCap Fast” ................................... 10

Figure 2: Fleet Size in Train Units for Order Strategy “MaxCap Slow” .................................. 10

Figure 3: Fleet Size in Train Units for Order Strategy “3-Car Mix” ........................................ 11

Figure 4: Fleet Size in Train Units for Order Strategy “2-Car Only” ....................................... 11

Figure 5: Total Rolling Stock Capacity .................................................................................. 12

Figure 6: BW-WF AM Peak Hour Capacity ........................................................................... 13

Figure 7: CO-KG AM Peak Hour Capacity ............................................................................ 14

Figure 8: CO-LH AM Peak Hour Capacity ............................................................................. 14

Figure 9: VC-LH AM Peak Hour Capacity ............................................................................. 15



1. Introduction

The ultimate capacity of the SkyTrain system is determined by the train unit configuration and scheduled headway. The longest trains considered in this study are 6-car Mark-I trains and 5-car Mark-II trains. Both trains can be operated without expensive modifications to the stations (specifically platform lengthening). The 5-car Mark-II trains would consist of one 2-car and one 3-car unit. The latter would be new to the SkyTrain fleet and the decision if and when to start adding 3-car units to the fleet has raised attention.

The purpose of this study is to determine the order strategy for 2-Mk-II units and 3-Mk-II units to provide the necessary capacity to the SkyTrain system.

Our methodology is based on two main ideas:

1. A set of operations scenarios determines the range of fleet requirement. The scenarios have been selected either because they are very likely in the near future or because they stand for extreme points in the future (like minimal capacity or maximal capacity).

2. A set of order strategies is defined to describe the range of possible approaches from the decision maker’s point of view. These strategies are analyzed from 2007 to 2020 to see which scenarios they allow to operate and what options they exclude in the future. The four strategies are outlined below in Table 1.

Table 1: Order Strategies

Order Strategy Description

MaxCap Fast Build fleet to maximum capacity (5 car M-II trains) as quickly as possible.

MaxCap Slow Build fleet to maximum capacity (5 car M-II trains) but follow the same number of train blocks determined from the order strategy „2-Car Only

3-Car Mix Build a mixed fleet to operate 5 car, 4 car and 3 car M-II trains following the same number of blocks determined from conservative demand.

2-Car Only Build a fleet of only 4 car and 2 car M-II trains determined from the conservative demand.

This analysis is based on results from previous studies that were conducted with the Regional Transit Model (RTM), in particular the “Maximum Capacity for SkyTrain” study and the ongoing “Evergreen as SkyTrain” project.



2. Assumptions

2.1. Fleet and Orders

The current SkyTrain fleet consists of 75 Mark I 2 car units (2-Mk-I) and 30 Mark II 2 car units (2-Mk-II). In addition, 17 2-Mk-II units have been ordered and are currently under construction with an estimated delivery date of October 2008 to March 2009. Furthermore, in April 2008 the TransLink board approved proceeding with an option for 7 2-Mk-II units, to arrive by February 2010. Beyond these units, TransLink is also investigating an option for 12 2-Mk-II units, which must be awarded by 22 June 2009.

It is assumed that it would be impossible to change the first two orders to 3 M-II units instead of 2 M-II units.

The 2-Mk-I units do not have an explicit “phase out” date but for this study, we are assuming that they would be retired by 2020 (age of 35 years old).

The spare rate is assumed to be 7% for each type of train unit.

As explained in the introduction, this study considers a 5-car-Mark-II the train of maximal capacity. 6-car-Mark-II trains are excluded from the analysis. The following train capacities are assumed:

Table 2: Capacities for Various Train Types

Length (Cars)

Capacity (Seat only)

Capacity (Seat & Stand)

4-Mark-I 4 144 300

6-Mark-I 6 216 450

2-Mark-II 2 84 238

3-Mark-II 3 126 357

4-Mark-II 4 168 476

5-Mark-II 5 210 595



2.2. Operations Scenarios

26 operation scenarios were considered and assumed. Table 3 and



Table 4 describe each scenario in terms of routes schemes, blocks, train assignments and headways.

Table 3: Operations Scenarios at a Glance

2-Car Only 3-Car Mix MaxCap Slow MaxCap Fast

2006 108s combined headway on main branch

2007 96s headway on WF-BW and 108s headway on rest of main branch

2009 As 2006 but higher capacity due to expanded fleet and longer trains

2011 Split tail operations (WF-KG & WF-LH & LH-VC), 108s headway

2014 before Evergreen

opening

Split tail, 108s headway

Split tail, 90s headway

2021 with Evergreen

before Broadway opening

Evergreen Study: Scenario 8a -

Break at CO 90s

Evergreen Study: Scenario 4 –

Doubly Coordinated 90s


Break at CO 90s


Break at CO 90s



Table 4: Operations Scenario



3. Order Strategies

3.1. Demand

A conservative demand was established in order to provide a reference for the minimum SkyTrain fleet required to service that demand. The conservative demand is based on the 2020 demand on the critical link of Broadway to Main from Phase A model report and the 2020 demand from the Evergreen Line Business Case. The order strategies “3-Car Mix” and “2-Car Only” results in a fleet that provides enough capacity to meet the conservative demand with a level of service similar to today’s operations. Any fleet that contains the number of blocks and train capacity above the “2 Car Only Fleet” would offer a higher level of service over today’s service. For example, the fleet resulting from the order strategy “MaxCap Fast” will provide more capacity in the system (more people will be able to sit and fewer passups compared to today). Additional capacity may also support reduced dwell times at key stations since there will be a reduced requirement for passengers to alight and reboard to let other passengers out in congested conditions.



3.2. Order Timelines

For each scenario together within the constraints assumed (e.g. spare rate, order assumptions), the M-II train unit orders were computed. The M-II train unit orders at each point in time is summarized in Table 5. Following the train unit orders described in Table 5 will result in a fleet shown in Figure 1.

Table 5: M-II Train Unit Orders

2007 2008 2009

2010-2014 Before

Evergreen

2015-2020 Before

Broadway

Total Cars

Ordered

Year Strategy 2-car 3-car 2-car 3-car 2-car 3-car 2-car 3-car 2-car 3-car 2009 2-Car Only 17 34 2009 MaxCap Fast 17 34 2009 MaxCap Slow 17 34 2009 3-Car Mix 17 34 2011 2-Car Only 17 7 48 2011 MaxCap Fast 17 7 48 2011 MaxCap Slow 17 7 48 2011 3-Car Mix 17 7 48 2014 2-Car Only 17 7 24 96 2014 MaxCap Fast 17 7 51 201 2014 MaxCap Slow 17 7 39 165 2014 3-Car Mix 17 7 13 11 107 2020 2-Car Only 17 7 24 79 254 2020 MaxCap Fast 17 7 51 19 49 386 2020 MaxCap Slow 17 7 39 5 47 316 2020 3-Car Mix 17 7 13 11 21 46 287



Figure 1: Fleet Size in Train Units for Order Strategy “MaxCap Fast”

Fleet as a Result of Order Strategy: MaxCap Fast

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2006 2007 2009 2011 2014 2020

2-M-I2-M-II3-M-II

Figure 2: Fleet Size in Train Units for Order Strategy “MaxCap Slow”

Fleet as a Result of Order Strategy: MaxCap Slow

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2006 2007 2009 2011 2014 2020

2-M-I2-M-II3-M-II



Figure 3: Fleet Size in Train Units for Order Strategy “3-Car Mix”

Fleet as a Result of Order Strategy: 3-Car Mix

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2006 2007 2009 2011 2014 2020

2-M-I2-M-II3-M-II

Figure 4: Fleet Size in Train Units for Order Strategy “2-Car Only”

Fleet as a Result of Order Strategy: 2-Car Only

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2006 2007 2009 2011 2014 2020

2-M-I2-M-II3-M-II



3.3. Measures of Performance

For each order strategy, the resulting total rolling stock capacity is shown in Figure 5.

Figure 5: Total Rolling Stock Capacity

Total Rolling Stock Capacity (Seat and Standing)

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

55000

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022


Canada Line Opens


All Mark I cars Retires Before Broadway West



For each order strategy, the resulting AM peak hour capacity at the critical Broadway (BW) to Waterfront (WF) section and the projected demand is shown in Figure 6.

Figure 6: BW-WF AM Peak Hour Capacity

BW-WF AM Peak Hour Capacity (Seat and Standing)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

MaxCap FastMaxCap Slow3-Car Mix2-Car OnlyDemand

Canada Line Opens


All Mark I cars Retires. Before Broadway West.

Figure 7, Figure 8 and Figure 9 shows the resulting AM peak hour capacity at the CO-KG, CO-LH and VC-LH sections.



Figure 7: CO-KG AM Peak Hour Capacity

CO-KG AM Peak Hour Capacity (Seat and Standing)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022


Canada Line Opens



Figure 8: CO-LH AM Peak Hour Capacity

CO-LH AM Peak Hour Capacity (Seat and Standing)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022


Canada Line Opens





Figure 9: VC-LH AM Peak Hour Capacity

VC-LH AM Peak Hour Capacity (Seat and Standing)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022


Canada Line Opens





4. Conclusions

The principal thought is that the best strategy is one that maximizes the number of options that are kept available in an uncertain future. Translated to TransLink’s SkyTrain fleet order strategy, this means that the best strategy will be the one that allows in the future the greatest flexibility to choose between maximum and minimum capacity operations.

Following that rationale, it is recommended that:

• Ideally, the ordering of 2-Mk-II units be halted after the currently approved first option for seven additional 2-Mk-II units is exercised.

• 3-Mk-II units be ordered as soon as possible. The reason for this is that unless 3-Mk-II units are ordered, maximum capacity operations with 5-car trains would result in unacceptably high spare rates of 2-car units. A Broadway extension of the Millennium Line would allow more 2-car units to be ordered, but no decision should be taken until this extension is assured.

Should TransLink exercise the second option for an additional 12 2-car Mark II units, the Mark II fleet will total 66 2-Mk-II units. This will require 4-car Mark II trains to operate on an “interim” basis in place of some 5-car trains, similar to the 2014 “3-car Mix” scenario. However, the full fleet of 2-car Mark II units, would be utilized into the future, with no “lost” capacity if the MaxCap fast scenario is followed as it requires 73 2-car Mark II units. Therefore exercising the second option would change the ideal sequence for reaching maximum capacity, but is compatible with reaching maximum capacity. Exercising the second option should be seen as a convenient way to buy capacity (and time) to ensure adequate capacity can be provided while 3-car units are designed, procured, and infrastructure modified to accommodate them.

Assuming the second option is exercised, the following train assignment would be an obvious option to provide more consistent train-to-train capacity with the current number of peak trains:

Expo Millennium 4-car Mark I - 8 6-car Mark I 2 15 2-car Mark II - - 4-car Mark II 30 - Total fleet used, AM Peak: 134 Mark I (11% spare) and 120 Mark II (10% spare)

RTM Phase B SkyTrain Fleet Order Strategy

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