How to solve London’s air quality crisis

Richard Howard, Policy Exchange

11th October 2016

About me

• Head of Environment & Energy Unit

• Policy Exchange – Westminster-based think tank (policyexchange.org.uk)

Policy Context

Health Impact

• PM2.5: aggravates respiratory / cardiovascular conditions, increases risk of death

• NO2: lung irritation, exacerbates asthma, increases risk of respiratory infections

• Mortality impact of PM2.5 & NO2 in 2010– 141,000 life years lost

– Equivalent to 9,400 deaths

– Reduce life expectancy by 2 years (9 months for PM2.5, and 15 months for NO2)

NO2 concentrations

• 12% of London (292 sq km) exceeded NO2 limit in 2010

• Area contains 328,000 schoolchildren (25%)

• & 3.8 million workers (44%)

Recent trends

• NO2: Inner London Roadside concentrations static since 2000 at average of ~60μg/m3

• PM10: Gradual improvement since 2004

Why the lack of progress on NO2?

• Dieselisation of fleet

– 10.7 m diesel cars on road in GB in 2014 (up from 1.6 m in 1994). 50% new car sales are diesel.

– 96% of vans are diesels

– Diesels emit far higher levels of NOx/PM than petrol

Why the lack of progress on NO2?

• Failure of vehicle emission standards– Diesels failed to

perform to Euro standards in practice

– Euro 5 diesels no better than Euro 1 for NOx

– Euro 5 & 6 diesels are x6 above NOx standard (not a single car achieved the standard in DfT tests)

Source of NOx emissions (2010 data)

Current / planned policies

• Vehicle charging: Congestion Charge Zone, Low Emission Zone, and Ultra Low Emission Zone (from 2020)

• Cabs: age limit, Zero emission from 2018• Buses: retrofitting, replacement, hybrids• Public transport: Crossrail, cycling, electrification of rail• Planning: ‘Air Quality Neutral’ development, construction

and demolition guidelines• Energy: Biomass & CHP standards, energy efficiency

programmes• Construction vehicles: NRMM regulations• Mayor’s Clean Air Fund & Low Emission Neighbourhoods

Air quality projections

• In absence of further intervention…

• 2% of London (42 sq km) over NO2 limit in 2025

PX proposals

Impact of PX proposals

• Achieve NO2

compliance in 99.9% of London

• +1 month life expectancy

• Further action on bus/ HGVs required

Sadiq Khan’s proposals

• Implement T-Charge in CCZ area from 2017

• Bring forward ULEZ implementation to 2019 (Central London)

• Extend ULEZ – possibly to North-South Circular

• Euro VI for HGVs across London from 2020

• Diesel scrappage scheme

• Work on national / international policies

• TfL buses to reach Euro VI by 2019 in ULEZ

• Clean bus corridors

• Retrofit 3,000 buses outside central zone

• Purchase only zero-emission buses from 2018

Impact of Brexit…

• UK Air Quality legislation mainly stems from EU Directives

• Brexit creates uncertainty over policy direction

• …and enforcement

• AQ legislation remains in force in short term

• Strong rationale for retaining Air Quality legislation on health grounds