Human Mortality Database 15 years of work for the international scientific community

4th HMD Symposium “Similarities and peculiarities on the way to longer life”

WissenschaftsForum, Berlin

Round table: The future of the HMD project

Topics for discussion

• Growing problems with the population

• Growing problems at advanced

• New countries for the HMD

• Should we do anything extra to include new countries?

• Methods protocol

• Regime of the HMD data access

• New Human Lifetable Database

Topics for discussion

• Growing problems with the population

• Growing problems at advanced

• New countries for the HMD

• Should we do anything extra to include new countries?

• Methods protocol

• Regime of the HMD data access

• New Human Lifetable Database

Bulgaria: correction of population series in 1980-2005

1985

(census year)

2001

census year

1984

2000

1992

(census year)

1991

3500000

3700000

3900000

4100000

4300000

4500000

4700000

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

MALES

FEMALES

3500000

3700000

3900000

4100000

4300000

4500000

4700000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Females

Males

Trends in the total number of males and females. Bulgaria, 1961-2003. Official population estimates (left) and HMD data (right).

Changes in the definition of population: Poland

Figure: Official and adjusted (Tymicki et al. , 2015) estimates of population of Poland

14,000,000

15,000,000

16,000,000

17,000,000

18,000,000

19,000,000

20,000,0001

96

01

96

21

96

41

96

61

96

81

97

01

97

21

97

41

97

61

97

81

98

01

98

21

98

41

98

61

98

81

99

01

99

21

99

41

99

61

99

82

00

02

00

22

00

42

00

62

00

82

01

02

01

22

01

4

Pre- and post-censal population estimates according to the 2002

Post-censal population estimates calculated according to the 1988

census

Post-censal population estimates calculated according

to the 1970 census

Post-censal population estimates calculated according to the 1960

census

FEMALES

MALES Post-censal population estimates according to the

2011 census

Unfofficial inter-censal estimates

based on the 2011 census

In the 2000s, Poland faced a massive out-migration that followed the EU enlargement of 2004. It was expected that the population counts will be corrected downward after the next population census of 2011. But Statistics Poland has unexpectedly decided to change the official definition of the population status from the permanently resident (acting in 2010 and earlier) to the usually resident (from 2011 onward). Statistics Poland did not re-estimate age-specific population counts back to previous census.

Topics for discussion

• Growing problems with the population

• Growing problems at advanced

• New countries for the HMD

• Should we do anything extra to include new countries?

• Methods protocol

• Regime of the HMD data access

• New Human Lifetable Database

Russia: life expectancy at age 90

2.5

2.7

2.9

3.1

3.3

3.5

3.7

3.9

4.1

4.3

4.5

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Life

exp

ect

ancy

at

age

90

Year

Males (Standard HMD)

Females (Standard HMD)

males (SR80)

females (SR80)

Official statistical data. Emerging migrants

Age group Males Females Males foreign born (%) Females foreign born (%)

90-94 23,648 52,869 0.00 0.00

95-99 3,941 12,585 0.05 0.02

100-104 309 1,558 0.97 0.19

105+ 12 74 33.3 5.4

Sweden 2014:

A steep increase in the proportion of foreign-born individuals in the population denominator that does not match with a similar increase in the death numerator is a signal of problematic population estimates, and of a numerator-denominator bias at extreme ages. In light of this new problem, Statistics Sweden has decided to use an aggregated open age interval 100+ instead of showing individual ages above 100.

Topics for discussion

• Growing problems with the population

• Growing problems at advanced

• New countries for the HMD

• Should we do anything extra to include new countries?

• Methods protocol

• Regime of the HMD data access

• New Human Lifetable Database

HMD Candidates

South Korea, Romania (??), ….

Topics for discussion

• Growing problems with the population

• Growing problems at advanced

• New countries for the HMD

• Should we do anything extra to include new countries?

• Methods protocol

• Regime of the HMD data access

• New Human Lifetable Database

Numerator-denominator bias: case of Moldova

Source: Penina, Jdanov, Grigoriev (2015)

* Since 1998 official population counts do not include Transnistria region

The problem: systematic bias (deaths and births refer to the de facto population, (i.e. occurred within the country, while population estimates also include long-term emigrants - Moldavian citizens living abroad). Results in under-estimation of mortality and fertility.

The solution: population estimates were corrected using data on border crossings and additional data collected at the census of 2004

South Korea: preliminary analysis

Infant mortality before 2000 is not reliable After 2000: Substantial differences between pop estimates for 2000 and 2005 and census counts for the same years. Perhaps census counts excludes foreigners? These differences are important for the ages 0,1 and also for other ages (including adult and old ages). It can be also seen that some smoothing was used to produce pop estimates (fluctuations observed at some ages in census data are absent in pop estimates - this cannot be explained by a simple exclusion of foreigners).

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

500000

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84

2005 census

2005 estimate

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

500000

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84

2000 census

2000 estimate

Underestimation of infant mortality: adjustment by mortality trend

Figure: Infant mortality rate in Moldova before and after correction prior to 1973, both sexes, Moldova, 1959–2014. Source: (Penina et al., 2015)

An abrupt increase in the infant mortality that occurred in all of the Soviet republics at the beginning of the 1970s was interpreted by Anderson and Silver (1986) as a result of improvements in the registration rather than a real deterioration in survival of the newborns.

Topics for discussion

• Growing problems with the population

• Growing problems at advanced

• New countries for the HMD

• Should we do anything extra to include new countries?

• Methods protocol

• Regime of the HMD data access

• New Human Lifetable Database

Beginning of the HMD Methods Protocol

Revisions of the HMD MP

• Revisions 1-2 not published • Revision 3 (May 2002) is the first published version. The fist

(published) HMD data were calculated according to the MP v.3 • Revision 4 (November 2005):

⁞ Changed method for splitting deaths into Lexis triangles; ⁞ Revised method for splitting open age interval; ⁞ Revised formula for population exposure; ⁞ Revised procedure for smoothing M(x).

• Revision 5 (February 2007): ⁞ Various places through MP, changed "country"/"countries" to

"country or area"/"population“; ⁞ Inaccuracies in some equations corrected; ⁞ Cubic spline method modified to split VV data.

• Revision 6 (2017): ⁞ Changed method for calculating population exposures; ⁞ Changed method for calculating the mean age of infant death; ⁞ MP re-written in LaTEX

• Revision 7 – work in progress

MP6: Population exposure accounting for variation in cohort’s birthdays

MP6: New formula for a0 accounting for change in

infant death distribution at low levels of mortality

Source: E.Andreev and Kingkade, 2015

Topics for discussion

• Growing problems with the population

• Growing problems at advanced

• New countries for the HMD

• Should we do anything extra to include new countries?

• Methods protocol

• Regime of the HMD data access

• New Human Lifetable Database

User’s agreement

The data in the Human Mortality Database (HMD) are provided free of charge to all individuals who request access to the database. We ask that you kindly observe the following requests and restrictions: The HMD provides original estimates of exposure-to-risk, death rates, and life tables as well as the official data used for deriving these estimates. All such data are intended to be used for scientific purposes only. Moreover, all original data provided by official institutions and published here in the section called "Input data" should not be used for commercial gain or re-published in any form without the explicit permission of the data owners (usually government statistical offices). ……. Please do not pass your copy of these data to other users. Rather refer them to the HMD website, where they may download the data for themselves. Since these data will be updated on a regular basis (including corrections as needed), this practice helps to prevent the existence of multiple outdated or incorrect versions. It also ensures that each user has full access to information about the data, citation procedures, etc. ……..

Access to the HMD data

Open access Open access without permission for republishing Restricted access for commercial use ….

Topics for discussion

• Growing problems with the population

• Growing problems at advanced

• New countries for the HMD

• Should we do anything extra to include new countries?

• Methods protocol

• Regime of the HMD data access

• New Human Lifetable Database