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Rosswall scenarios for policy - 2012-09-05
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Second Global Conference on Food Security, Agriculture and Climate Change, Hanoi 2012 Scenarios for Policy: Transforming Food Systems, Landscapes and Farming for the 21 st Century Thomas Rosswall Chair, CCAFS Independent Science Panel
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Transcript of Rosswall scenarios for policy - 2012-09-05
Second Global Conference on Food Security, Agriculture and Climate Change, Hanoi 2012
Scenarios for Policy: Transforming Food Systems, Landscapes and
Farming for the 21st Century
Thomas Rosswall Chair, CCAFS Independent Science Panel
Based on Bennett et al. (in prep.)
Contribution of agriculture to crossing planetary boundaries
To 2090, ensemble mean of 14 climate models
Thornton et al. (2010) ILRI/CCAFS
>20% loss 5-20% loss No change 5-20% gain >20% gain
Length of growing period (%)
Climate change much faster & more severe than previously anticipated
Still much uncertainty about climate futures e.g. among different models
Change in average annual precipitation, 2000-2050, CSIRO GCM, A1B (mm)
Change in average annual precipitation, 2000-2050, MIROC GCM, A1B (mm)
Many interlinked drivers and risks
WEF (2011)
Many interlinked drivers and risks
Transformational adaptation in agriculture
Rickards & Howden, 2012)
Farmers strongly attached to their land
The change should be responsive and anticipatory with a high level of adaptive capacity.
Transformation in agriculture
Transformation in institutions that support agriculture
finance
policy incentives
Prepare ahead for long-term, locally-relevant futures
... with current knowledge about climate and plant physiology. It takes 20 yrs for common uptake in farmers’ fields. Plan now for 2030. Session 3 will report on interventions appropriate for the 21st century CSA in drylands.
Prefer multiple entry points over single interventions
Farmer map of farming system, Bangladesh Source: FAO
Session 3 will look at future potentials for C markets to address CSA
Tackle poverty as the key barrier to transformation
Session 3 will give examples of successful interventions in vulnerable areas; building assets, strengthening livelihoods and transforming landscapes.
Take action across the whole food system
From Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change, 2012
Session 3 will address some options.
New partnerships are essential
• Farmers • Private sector • Civil society • Governments
Scientists
In the past ...
Increasingly and in the future ...
Scientists
• Governments • Farmers
... with participatory agenda setting
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