L’Europe en 2050 Quel mode de vie?

Domenico ROSSETTICommission européenne, DG RTD*

Domenico.Rossetti-di-Valdalbero@ec.europa.eu

* S’exprimant à titre personnel

Collège Belgique Académie royale des Sciences, des Lettres et des Beaux-Arts

Bruxelles, 28 mars 2012

A blurring world

Public - Private sectors

Professional - Private life

Manufacturing – Services

Faith - Reason

Source: D. Rossetti

Society and Science

Man – Technology & Humanities – EngineeringDesign of a car - Efficiency of the combustion engine

Social habits - Technological developmentsAirplane service on board - Online reservation

But scientist is more and more engaged in societal and ethical debate (DNA, GMO, nuclear)

Source: D. Rossetti

http://ec.europa.eu/research/social-sciences/forward-looking_en.html

Forward-looking methodologies

Source: EC, DG RTD, WETO-T (B. Chateau and D. Rossetti)

Forward-looking methodologies

Source: The Power of Science, D. Rossetti

EU strategic and long-term policies

“Europe 2020 Strategy”

A Budget for Europe 2020 (MFF)

Horizon 2020, the future FP for R&I

Rio+20: towards the green economy and better governanceRoadmaps for low carbon economy, for transport and for energy in 2050

Source: European Commission

Dem

ogra

phic

chan

ges

World (ageing) population

Source: UN, EC, DG RTD, VLEEM (B. Chateau)

Regional population (Millions)

Source: UN, EC, DG RTD,WETO-T (B. Chateau and D. Rossetti)

Il n’y a plus que des petits pays en Europe, mais certains ne le savent pas

Paul-Henri Spaak

European population

Source: UN Population statistics and DG ECFIN, Ageing Report (H. Bogaert)

The EU working population will be less than 35% by 2050

EU health exp.: from 8% of GDP today to ~12% in 2050

The "oldest old" (85 and over) will almost triple

Migrations

Per year, ~1.5 million of third countries people are entering the EU20% of the EU population will be Muslim by 2050

Source: European Commission, DG RTD, Global Europe 2050

Econ

omic

chan

ges

World and EU GDP (2010 and 2050)

Source: EC, DG RTD, Global Europe 2050 (L. Fontagné)

World and EU GDP (2010 and 2050)

Source: EC, DG RTD, Global Europe 2050 (L. Fontagné)

Brazil's foreign trade in agro-food

B$

Source: CEPII-CHELEM, 2011

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1967 1977 1988 1996 1997 1999 2000 2004 2008 2009

ExportImport

Share of the world productionof electronic products

Source: EC, DG RTD, Global Europe 2050 (L. Fontagné)

“Europe is at a crossroads: either we keep and strengthen the role as one of the main global actors, or we become an “increasingly irrelevant outgrowth on the Asian continent”

Gonzalez report “Europe 2030”

Tens

ions

on

natu

ralr

esou

rces

Source: NASA and WWF

RURAL63%

RBAN37%

RURAL53%

RURAL40%

Climate change observation

The melting of ice caps in the Arctic and Greenland

Urbanisation rate and megacities

Source: EC, DG RTD, WETO-T (B. Chateau and D. Rossetti)UN-Habitat

23 M inh.New Delhi

25 M inh.Seoul

Tokyo 34 M inh.

Sao Paolo 21 M inh.

Source: EC; DG RTD (image from L. Schuiten)

Increasing of tensions

Source: European Commission, DG RTD, The World in 2025

Water (3 billion people missing water by 2030)

Food (70% increase by 2050)

Land (war on lands)

Materials (lithium, gallium, scandium,…)

Energy

EU energy imports

Source: EC, Eurostat and DG Energy

Oil reserves in the hands of national companies (in billion barrels)

Source: The Wall Street Journal, 22/5/2010

99Venezuela National Oil company

136Iranian National Oil Company

260Saoudi Oil Company

8 Exxon Mobil

“L’Europe est l’idiot du village global”

Hubert Védrine

Gross energy consumption (in Mtoe)The potential for savings

Source: European Commission, DG ENER,EU energy Roadmap 2050

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

2000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Range regarding decarbonisation scenarios

Range for current trends scenarios

Energy by 2100

Energy used for food will double

Energy for thermal comfort and living-spaceheating and cooling will triple

Energy for mobility will increase by a factor 5

Energy for self-fulfilment will increase mostSource: EC, DG RTD , WETO-T (B. Chateau & D. Rossetti)

Life

styl

es, v

alue

s an

d at

titu

des

6

10 5

10 4

10 3

10 2

10 1

10

Oral communicationthrough language

Picture and symbolcommunication

Writing

Book printing

Mass educationMass media

Totalinterconnectivity

Years ago

Human societiesand information

Source: EC, DG RTD, FARHORIZON (V. Van Rij)

Unsustainable lifestyle trendsWorld meat consumption has been multiplied by 5 since1960Final consumption of food and drink, private transportation and housing lead to almost 80% of Europe’s environmental impactsResidential sector accounts for 40% of Europe’s total energy consumption (with almost 70% for H&C)Car ownership in the EU increased by 35% between 1990 and 2007. EU-drivers own over one third of the world’s 750 million automobiles

Source: EC, DG RTD, SPREAD and D. Rossetti

Socio-economic habits

Source: Google images

Energy and transport

T im e

T r a n sp o r t e n e r g y p e r in h a b ita n t

A v e r a g e sp e e d s

T im e in tr a n sp o r t p e r

p e r so n

Source: European Commission, DG RTD, VLEEM (B. Chateau)

Human behaviour

Source: Google images

World electricity and wealth –The decoupling challenge

Source: IEA

Doubling of world energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 in most of the scenarios

“Malthus’ revenge” - Replacing “population” with “consumption” in the quote: “the power of population is so superior to the power of the earth to produce subsistence for man, that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race”

Malthus revenge

Source: EC, DG RTD, WETO-H2 and Luc Soete

Price

Source: Energy-future.com

€ 30-150 € 150-350 € 200,000-300,000

Overweight rates

Source: OECD, 2010

Food loss and wastage

Source: FAO, Global Food losses and Food Waste, 2011

Kg/c/y

Drinking water

Bread, pasta, rice, couscous,fruits, vegetables

Every main meal

Every day Dairies (pref. low fat), olive oil, herbs, seeds, garlic, onions

Weekly Poultry, fish/ seafood, eggs

SweetsMeat

Modern Med. diet

Adults (18-65 years)

Physical activity Conviviality SeasonaPhysical activity Conviviality Seasonality Local productslity Local products

Source: 3° Int. CIISCAM Conf., Parma, Italy, 2009

Time used for food and information (2000-2100)

Source: EC, DG RTD, WETO-T (B. Chateau and D. Rossetti)

Hours/day/pers

Information index

Time

2 hours

Source: Google image

Time use structure worldwide up to 2100

Source: EC, DG RTD, WETO-T (B. Chateau and D. Rossetti)

Risk size

Time

Traditional risksTraditional risks

Modern risksModern risks

TobaccoPhysical inactivityObesity

Urban air qualityRoad traffic safetyOccupational risk

UndernutritionIndoor air pollutionWater, sanitation and hygiene

The risk transition

Source: WHO, 2009

Mod

el(s

) of d

evel

opm

ent

Sustainable development

European Council Conclusions (1-2 March 2012) underlined the strong support for an ambitious outcome at the Rio+20 UN Conference on SD that should:

Advance the global transition towards a green economy (envir. protection, poverty eradication, resource-efficient growth)Work towards clear operational targets at national and international level within agreed time framesAdvance the work on global post-2015 goals for sustainable development, incl. Millennium Development Goals

Source: European Council, 2012

European socio-economic models

Source: European Commission, DG RTD, ICATSEM (G. Jackson)

Bank-oriented

Bank-oriented

Market-oriented

Finance

Highlyregulatedtowardsdereg.

State-dominated

State-based

CorporatismStakeholder-oriented

Rhenan

Highlyregulatedtowardsdereg.

ConservativeState-based

ConflictarianInsider-dominated

Mediterranean

Dereg. but promotion of R&D

LiberalMarket-based

Pluralism -Voluntarism

Shareholder-oriented

Anglo-Saxon

Industrialpolicy

WelfareState

Educ. & training

Industrialrelations

Corporategovernance

Is the (Asian) State capitalism taking over the Western socio-economic models?

Are the three types of EU welfare states –combining family, market and state –

adapted to the future?

Source: D. Rossetti and ICATSEM

Welfare, Work and Wealth

Systemic Industrial / Innovation PolicyFitting to the competitive advantages of each regionPushed by globalisation Pulled by challenges and vision for Europe 2020 -“Smart, sustainable and inclusive growth”

Source: European Commission, DG RTD, WWWforEurope (K. Aiginger)

Con

clus

ions

Some risksPerception that the “costs of non-Europe” are toolow to the richer MS and that the “costs of Europe” are too high to the weakest MSEuroscepticism and thinking that a Member State alone can play a significant role in the worldStandardization and harmonization (vs. personal values, creativity, imagination, emotion)NIMBY (Not in my backyard) and BANANA (Build absolutely nothing, anywhere, near anybody)

Source: D. Rossetti

A new European model of developmentTowards the socio-ecological transition?

Source: European Commission, DG RTD, The World in 2025

Social innovationsBeyond scientific and technological innovationNew collaborative consumption (sharing, swapping,…) - from ownership to access to goods and servicesSustainable ways of using products and services:

Efficient living (wasting less)Different living (quality vs. quantity)

New approaches to sustainable mobility options (eco-towns, sustainable city initiatives)

Source: EC, DG RTD, SPREAD and D. Rossetti

Cities of the futureGrowing city:

From sprawl to intensityOpen city:

From patchwork to mosaicSmart city:

From exploitation to efficiencyCivic city:

From marketization to new governanceSource: EP, IBA Hamburg, HafenCity Hamburg

Paradigm shifts

Policy: beyond voting

Energy: beyond oil

Economy: beyond GDP

Lifestyle: beyond tangibles

Source: EC, DG RTD, PASHMINA (A. Ricci and C. Sessa)

Nella battaglia per l’unità europeaci vuole una concentrazione

di pensiero e di volontàper cogliere le occasioni,per affrontare le disfatte,

per decidere di continuare

Altiero Spinelli