Roots of Comparative Development - econ.ku.dk · Deep Roots of Comparative Development The Origins...
Transcript of Roots of Comparative Development - econ.ku.dk · Deep Roots of Comparative Development The Origins...
Roots of Comparative Development
Oded Galor
Zeuthen Lectures - Lecture 2
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 1 / 49
Deep Roots of Comparative Development
The Origins of Inequality in Income per Capita across the Globe in 2010
0-1000
1000-3
000
3000-5
000
5000-1
0000
10000-
15000
15000-
20000
20000-
30000
30000-
40000
40000+
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 2 / 49
Deep Roots of Comparative Development
Deep Roots of Comparative Development
Persistent effects of variations geographical and human characteristics
Biogeographical conditions that led to the onset of the Neolithic Revo-lution (Diamond, 1997)
Migratory distance from Africa and its impact on the distribution ofgenetic diversity across the globe (Ashraf-Galor, AER 2013)
Geographical characteristics (climate, soil quality, disease environment, UV radiation, bounty ofthe sea, latitude)
Productivity (Sachs et al, 1999; Andersen-Dalgaard-Selaya, RES 2016)
Institutions conducive to development (AJR, AER 2001)Cultural characteristics conducive for development (Alesina-Giuliano-Nunn,QJE 2013; Dalgaard-Knudsen-Selaya, 2016, Galor-Ozak, AER 2016)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 3 / 49
Deep Roots of Comparative Development
Deep Roots of Comparative Development
Persistent effects of variations geographical and human characteristics
Biogeographical conditions that led to the onset of the Neolithic Revo-lution (Diamond, 1997)
Migratory distance from Africa and its impact on the distribution ofgenetic diversity across the globe (Ashraf-Galor, AER 2013)
Geographical characteristics (climate, soil quality, disease environment, UV radiation, bounty ofthe sea, latitude)
Productivity (Sachs et al, 1999; Andersen-Dalgaard-Selaya, RES 2016)
Institutions conducive to development (AJR, AER 2001)Cultural characteristics conducive for development (Alesina-Giuliano-Nunn,QJE 2013; Dalgaard-Knudsen-Selaya, 2016, Galor-Ozak, AER 2016)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 3 / 49
Deep Roots of Comparative Development
Deep Roots of Comparative Development
Persistent effects of variations geographical and human characteristics
Biogeographical conditions that led to the onset of the Neolithic Revo-lution (Diamond, 1997)
Migratory distance from Africa and its impact on the distribution ofgenetic diversity across the globe (Ashraf-Galor, AER 2013)
Geographical characteristics (climate, soil quality, disease environment, UV radiation, bounty ofthe sea, latitude)
Productivity (Sachs et al, 1999; Andersen-Dalgaard-Selaya, RES 2016)
Institutions conducive to development (AJR, AER 2001)Cultural characteristics conducive for development (Alesina-Giuliano-Nunn,QJE 2013; Dalgaard-Knudsen-Selaya, 2016, Galor-Ozak, AER 2016)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 3 / 49
Deep Roots of Comparative Development
Deep Roots of Comparative Development
Persistent effects of variations geographical and human characteristics
Biogeographical conditions that led to the onset of the Neolithic Revo-lution (Diamond, 1997)
Migratory distance from Africa and its impact on the distribution ofgenetic diversity across the globe (Ashraf-Galor, AER 2013)
Geographical characteristics (climate, soil quality, disease environment, UV radiation, bounty ofthe sea, latitude)
Productivity (Sachs et al, 1999; Andersen-Dalgaard-Selaya, RES 2016)
Institutions conducive to development (AJR, AER 2001)Cultural characteristics conducive for development (Alesina-Giuliano-Nunn,QJE 2013; Dalgaard-Knudsen-Selaya, 2016, Galor-Ozak, AER 2016)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 3 / 49
Deep Roots of Comparative Development
Deep Roots of Comparative Development
Persistent effects of variations geographical and human characteristics
Biogeographical conditions that led to the onset of the Neolithic Revo-lution (Diamond, 1997)
Migratory distance from Africa and its impact on the distribution ofgenetic diversity across the globe (Ashraf-Galor, AER 2013)
Geographical characteristics (climate, soil quality, disease environment, UV radiation, bounty ofthe sea, latitude)
Productivity (Sachs et al, 1999; Andersen-Dalgaard-Selaya, RES 2016)
Institutions conducive to development (AJR, AER 2001)Cultural characteristics conducive for development (Alesina-Giuliano-Nunn,QJE 2013; Dalgaard-Knudsen-Selaya, 2016, Galor-Ozak, AER 2016)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 3 / 49
Deep Roots of Comparative Development
Deep Roots of Comparative Development
Persistent effects of variations geographical and human characteristics
Biogeographical conditions that led to the onset of the Neolithic Revo-lution (Diamond, 1997)
Migratory distance from Africa and its impact on the distribution ofgenetic diversity across the globe (Ashraf-Galor, AER 2013)
Geographical characteristics (climate, soil quality, disease environment, UV radiation, bounty ofthe sea, latitude)
Productivity (Sachs et al, 1999; Andersen-Dalgaard-Selaya, RES 2016)
Institutions conducive to development (AJR, AER 2001)
Cultural characteristics conducive for development (Alesina-Giuliano-Nunn,QJE 2013; Dalgaard-Knudsen-Selaya, 2016, Galor-Ozak, AER 2016)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 3 / 49
Deep Roots of Comparative Development
Deep Roots of Comparative Development
Persistent effects of variations geographical and human characteristics
Biogeographical conditions that led to the onset of the Neolithic Revo-lution (Diamond, 1997)
Migratory distance from Africa and its impact on the distribution ofgenetic diversity across the globe (Ashraf-Galor, AER 2013)
Geographical characteristics (climate, soil quality, disease environment, UV radiation, bounty ofthe sea, latitude)
Productivity (Sachs et al, 1999; Andersen-Dalgaard-Selaya, RES 2016)
Institutions conducive to development (AJR, AER 2001)Cultural characteristics conducive for development (Alesina-Giuliano-Nunn,QJE 2013; Dalgaard-Knudsen-Selaya, 2016, Galor-Ozak, AER 2016)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 3 / 49
Deep Roots of Comparative Development The Neolithic Revolution
The Neolithic Origins of Comparative Development —Diamond’s Hypothesis
The transition from hunter-gatherer tribes to agricultural communities:
Emergence of non-food-producing class:
=⇒ Knowledge creation (science, technology & written languages)
Technological head start and its persistent effect via:
Urbanization, nation states, colonization
Variations in biogeographical characteristics conducive for the NR :
=⇒ Origins of the observed patterns of comparative development
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 4 / 49
Deep Roots of Comparative Development The Neolithic Revolution
The Neolithic Origins of Comparative Development —Diamond’s Hypothesis
The transition from hunter-gatherer tribes to agricultural communities:
Emergence of non-food-producing class:
=⇒ Knowledge creation (science, technology & written languages)
Technological head start and its persistent effect via:
Urbanization, nation states, colonization
Variations in biogeographical characteristics conducive for the NR :
=⇒ Origins of the observed patterns of comparative development
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 4 / 49
Deep Roots of Comparative Development The Neolithic Revolution
The Neolithic Origins of Comparative Development —Diamond’s Hypothesis
The transition from hunter-gatherer tribes to agricultural communities:
Emergence of non-food-producing class:
=⇒ Knowledge creation (science, technology & written languages)
Technological head start and its persistent effect via:
Urbanization, nation states, colonization
Variations in biogeographical characteristics conducive for the NR :
=⇒ Origins of the observed patterns of comparative development
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 4 / 49
Deep Roots of Comparative Development The Neolithic Revolution
The Neolithic Origins of Comparative Development —Diamond’s Hypothesis
The transition from hunter-gatherer tribes to agricultural communities:
Emergence of non-food-producing class:
=⇒ Knowledge creation (science, technology & written languages)
Technological head start and its persistent effect via:
Urbanization, nation states, colonization
Variations in biogeographical characteristics conducive for the NR :
=⇒ Origins of the observed patterns of comparative development
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 4 / 49
Deep Roots of Comparative Development The Neolithic Revolution
The Neolithic Origins of Comparative Development —Diamond’s Hypothesis
The transition from hunter-gatherer tribes to agricultural communities:
Emergence of non-food-producing class:
=⇒ Knowledge creation (science, technology & written languages)
Technological head start and its persistent effect via:
Urbanization, nation states, colonization
Variations in biogeographical characteristics conducive for the NR :
=⇒ Origins of the observed patterns of comparative development
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 4 / 49
Deep Roots of Comparative Development The Neolithic Revolution
The Neolithic Origins of Comparative Development —Diamond’s Hypothesis
The transition from hunter-gatherer tribes to agricultural communities:
Emergence of non-food-producing class:
=⇒ Knowledge creation (science, technology & written languages)
Technological head start and its persistent effect via:
Urbanization, nation states, colonization
Variations in biogeographical characteristics conducive for the NR :
=⇒ Origins of the observed patterns of comparative development
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 4 / 49
Deep Roots of Comparative Development The Neolithic Revolution
The Neolithic Origins of Comparative Development —Diamond’s Hypothesis
The transition from hunter-gatherer tribes to agricultural communities:
Emergence of non-food-producing class:
=⇒ Knowledge creation (science, technology & written languages)
Technological head start and its persistent effect via:
Urbanization, nation states, colonization
Variations in biogeographical characteristics conducive for the NR :
=⇒ Origins of the observed patterns of comparative development
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 4 / 49
Deep Roots of Comparative Development The Neolithic Revolution
Variation in the Onset of the Neolithic Revolution
0-2000
2000-4
000
4000-6
000
6000-8
000
8000-1
0000
10000+
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 5 / 49
Deep Roots of Comparative Development The Neolithic Revolution
Independent Origins
Source: Diamond (Nature 2002)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 6 / 49
Deep Roots of Comparative Development The Neolithic Revolution
Biogeographical Origins of the Onset of the Neolithic Revolution
Geographical factors that maximized biodiversity (climate, latitude, landmass)
Availability of domesticable species of plants and animals
=⇒ Onset of domestication
Orientation of continents:
=⇒ Diffusion of agricultural practices along similar latitudes
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 7 / 49
Deep Roots of Comparative Development The Neolithic Revolution
Biogeographical Origins of the Onset of the Neolithic Revolution
Geographical factors that maximized biodiversity (climate, latitude, landmass)
Availability of domesticable species of plants and animals
=⇒ Onset of domestication
Orientation of continents:
=⇒ Diffusion of agricultural practices along similar latitudes
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 7 / 49
Deep Roots of Comparative Development The Neolithic Revolution
Biogeographical Origins of the Onset of the Neolithic Revolution
Geographical factors that maximized biodiversity (climate, latitude, landmass)
Availability of domesticable species of plants and animals
=⇒ Onset of domestication
Orientation of continents:
=⇒ Diffusion of agricultural practices along similar latitudes
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 7 / 49
Deep Roots of Comparative Development The Neolithic Revolution
Biogeographical Origins of the Onset of the Neolithic Revolution
Geographical factors that maximized biodiversity (climate, latitude, landmass)
Availability of domesticable species of plants and animals
=⇒ Onset of domestication
Orientation of continents:
=⇒ Diffusion of agricultural practices along similar latitudes
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 7 / 49
Deep Roots of Comparative Development The Neolithic Revolution
Biogeographical Origins of the Onset of the Neolithic Revolution
Geographical factors that maximized biodiversity (climate, latitude, landmass)
Availability of domesticable species of plants and animals
=⇒ Onset of domestication
Orientation of continents:
=⇒ Diffusion of agricultural practices along similar latitudes
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 7 / 49
Deep Roots of Comparative Development The Neolithic Revolution
Orientation of Continents
Source: Diamond (Nature 2002)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 8 / 49
The Diamond Hypothesis Testable Predictions
The Diamond Hypothesis
The domination of Euro-Asia in the pre-colonial era reflects:
Larger number of domesticable species of plants and animals
East-West orientation
=⇒ Technological head start and its effect on development
The economic domination of Europeans and their offshoots in the post-colonial era reflects
Persistence of technological head startResistance to infectious diseases evolved in the aftermath of the NR
=⇒ Guns, Germs and Steel
Variation in the timing of Neolithic Revolution:
Comparative development in 1491Comparative development in the contemporary period
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 9 / 49
The Diamond Hypothesis Testable Predictions
The Diamond Hypothesis
The domination of Euro-Asia in the pre-colonial era reflects:
Larger number of domesticable species of plants and animals
East-West orientation
=⇒ Technological head start and its effect on development
The economic domination of Europeans and their offshoots in the post-colonial era reflects
Persistence of technological head startResistance to infectious diseases evolved in the aftermath of the NR
=⇒ Guns, Germs and Steel
Variation in the timing of Neolithic Revolution:
Comparative development in 1491Comparative development in the contemporary period
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 9 / 49
The Diamond Hypothesis Testable Predictions
The Diamond Hypothesis
The domination of Euro-Asia in the pre-colonial era reflects:
Larger number of domesticable species of plants and animals
East-West orientation
=⇒ Technological head start and its effect on development
The economic domination of Europeans and their offshoots in the post-colonial era reflects
Persistence of technological head startResistance to infectious diseases evolved in the aftermath of the NR
=⇒ Guns, Germs and Steel
Variation in the timing of Neolithic Revolution:
Comparative development in 1491Comparative development in the contemporary period
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 9 / 49
The Diamond Hypothesis Testable Predictions
The Diamond Hypothesis
The domination of Euro-Asia in the pre-colonial era reflects:
Larger number of domesticable species of plants and animals
East-West orientation
=⇒ Technological head start and its effect on development
The economic domination of Europeans and their offshoots in the post-colonial era reflects
Persistence of technological head startResistance to infectious diseases evolved in the aftermath of the NR
=⇒ Guns, Germs and Steel
Variation in the timing of Neolithic Revolution:
Comparative development in 1491Comparative development in the contemporary period
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 9 / 49
The Diamond Hypothesis Testable Predictions
The Diamond Hypothesis
The domination of Euro-Asia in the pre-colonial era reflects:
Larger number of domesticable species of plants and animals
East-West orientation
=⇒ Technological head start and its effect on development
The economic domination of Europeans and their offshoots in the post-colonial era reflects
Persistence of technological head startResistance to infectious diseases evolved in the aftermath of the NR
=⇒ Guns, Germs and Steel
Variation in the timing of Neolithic Revolution:
Comparative development in 1491Comparative development in the contemporary period
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 9 / 49
The Diamond Hypothesis Testable Predictions
The Diamond Hypothesis
The domination of Euro-Asia in the pre-colonial era reflects:
Larger number of domesticable species of plants and animals
East-West orientation
=⇒ Technological head start and its effect on development
The economic domination of Europeans and their offshoots in the post-colonial era reflects
Persistence of technological head start
Resistance to infectious diseases evolved in the aftermath of the NR
=⇒ Guns, Germs and Steel
Variation in the timing of Neolithic Revolution:
Comparative development in 1491Comparative development in the contemporary period
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 9 / 49
The Diamond Hypothesis Testable Predictions
The Diamond Hypothesis
The domination of Euro-Asia in the pre-colonial era reflects:
Larger number of domesticable species of plants and animals
East-West orientation
=⇒ Technological head start and its effect on development
The economic domination of Europeans and their offshoots in the post-colonial era reflects
Persistence of technological head startResistance to infectious diseases evolved in the aftermath of the NR
=⇒ Guns, Germs and Steel
Variation in the timing of Neolithic Revolution:
Comparative development in 1491Comparative development in the contemporary period
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 9 / 49
The Diamond Hypothesis Testable Predictions
The Diamond Hypothesis
The domination of Euro-Asia in the pre-colonial era reflects:
Larger number of domesticable species of plants and animals
East-West orientation
=⇒ Technological head start and its effect on development
The economic domination of Europeans and their offshoots in the post-colonial era reflects
Persistence of technological head startResistance to infectious diseases evolved in the aftermath of the NR
=⇒ Guns, Germs and Steel
Variation in the timing of Neolithic Revolution:
Comparative development in 1491Comparative development in the contemporary period
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 9 / 49
The Diamond Hypothesis Testable Predictions
The Diamond Hypothesis
The domination of Euro-Asia in the pre-colonial era reflects:
Larger number of domesticable species of plants and animals
East-West orientation
=⇒ Technological head start and its effect on development
The economic domination of Europeans and their offshoots in the post-colonial era reflects
Persistence of technological head startResistance to infectious diseases evolved in the aftermath of the NR
=⇒ Guns, Germs and Steel
Variation in the timing of Neolithic Revolution:
Comparative development in 1491Comparative development in the contemporary period
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 9 / 49
The Diamond Hypothesis Testable Predictions
The Diamond Hypothesis
The domination of Euro-Asia in the pre-colonial era reflects:
Larger number of domesticable species of plants and animals
East-West orientation
=⇒ Technological head start and its effect on development
The economic domination of Europeans and their offshoots in the post-colonial era reflects
Persistence of technological head startResistance to infectious diseases evolved in the aftermath of the NR
=⇒ Guns, Germs and Steel
Variation in the timing of Neolithic Revolution:
Comparative development in 1491
Comparative development in the contemporary period
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 9 / 49
The Diamond Hypothesis Testable Predictions
The Diamond Hypothesis
The domination of Euro-Asia in the pre-colonial era reflects:
Larger number of domesticable species of plants and animals
East-West orientation
=⇒ Technological head start and its effect on development
The economic domination of Europeans and their offshoots in the post-colonial era reflects
Persistence of technological head startResistance to infectious diseases evolved in the aftermath of the NR
=⇒ Guns, Germs and Steel
Variation in the timing of Neolithic Revolution:
Comparative development in 1491Comparative development in the contemporary period
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 9 / 49
The Diamond Hypothesis Testable Predictions
Testable Predictions
Earlier onset of the Neolithic Revolution:
During the Malthusian epoch
Technological superiorityHigher productivity (captured by population density)
During the contemporary era
Technological superiorityHigher income per capita (accounting for migration in the post1500 period)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 10 / 49
The Diamond Hypothesis Testable Predictions
Testable Predictions
Earlier onset of the Neolithic Revolution:
During the Malthusian epoch
Technological superiorityHigher productivity (captured by population density)
During the contemporary era
Technological superiorityHigher income per capita (accounting for migration in the post1500 period)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 10 / 49
The Diamond Hypothesis Testable Predictions
Testable Predictions
Earlier onset of the Neolithic Revolution:
During the Malthusian epoch
Technological superiority
Higher productivity (captured by population density)
During the contemporary era
Technological superiorityHigher income per capita (accounting for migration in the post1500 period)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 10 / 49
The Diamond Hypothesis Testable Predictions
Testable Predictions
Earlier onset of the Neolithic Revolution:
During the Malthusian epoch
Technological superiorityHigher productivity (captured by population density)
During the contemporary era
Technological superiorityHigher income per capita (accounting for migration in the post1500 period)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 10 / 49
The Diamond Hypothesis Testable Predictions
Testable Predictions
Earlier onset of the Neolithic Revolution:
During the Malthusian epoch
Technological superiorityHigher productivity (captured by population density)
During the contemporary era
Technological superiorityHigher income per capita (accounting for migration in the post1500 period)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 10 / 49
The Diamond Hypothesis Testable Predictions
Testable Predictions
Earlier onset of the Neolithic Revolution:
During the Malthusian epoch
Technological superiorityHigher productivity (captured by population density)
During the contemporary era
Technological superiority
Higher income per capita (accounting for migration in the post1500 period)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 10 / 49
The Diamond Hypothesis Testable Predictions
Testable Predictions
Earlier onset of the Neolithic Revolution:
During the Malthusian epoch
Technological superiorityHigher productivity (captured by population density)
During the contemporary era
Technological superiorityHigher income per capita (accounting for migration in the post1500 period)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 10 / 49
Empirical Examination Persistence of Technological Head Start
The Neolithic Revolution & Technological Level: 1000 BCE—1500 CE
Technology Level 1000BCE-1500CE
1000BCE 1CE 1500CE
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Years Since Neolithic Revolution 0.72*** 0.47*** 0.56*** 0.28** 0.74*** 0.34***
(0.06) (0.12) (0.06) (0.12) (0.06) (0.10)
Continental FE No Yes No Yes No Yes
Additional Geographical Controls No Yes No Yes No Yes
Adjusted-R2 0.51 0.60 0.31 0.63 0.55 0.82
Observations 112 111 134 133 113 112
Notes: Standardized coeffi cients from an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression. Heteroskedasticityrobust standard error estimates are reported in parentheses; *** denotes statistical significance at the1% level, ** at the 5% level, and * at the 10% level, all for two-sided hypothesis tests.
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 11 / 49
Empirical Examination Persistence of Technological Head Start
The Neolithic Revolution & Technological Level: 2000
Technology Level 2000CE
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Years Since Neolithic Revolution 0.15* -0.09 -0.09
(0.09) (0.08) (0.11)
Years Since Neolithic Revolution (Ancestors) 0.32*** 0.09 0.09
(0.07) (0.07) (0.10)
Continental FE No No Yes No No Yes
Additional Geographical Controls No Yes Yes No Yes Yes
Adjusted-R2 0.02 0.55 0.59 0.10 0.55 0.59
Observations 132 131 131 132 131 131
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 12 / 49
Empirical Examination Effect on Population Density
The Neolithic Revolution and Population Density 1-1500
Log [Population Density]
1CE 500CE 1000CE 1500CE 1CE 500CE 1000CE 1500CE
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
Years Since Neolithic Revolution 0.73*** 0.68*** 0.58*** 0.47*** 0.67*** 0.67*** 0.61*** 0.53***
(0.05) (0.06) (0.06) (0.07) (0.08) (0.09) (0.10) (0.11)
Caloric Suitability (pre-1500CE) 0.22*** 0.28*** 0.36*** 0.45***
(0.06) (0.07) (0.09) (0.09)
Continental FE No No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes
R2 0.54 0.46 0.33 0.22 0.63 0.57 0.48 0.42
Adjusted-R2 0.54 0.45 0.33 0.21 0.61 0.54 0.45 0.39
Observations 169 169 169 169 169 169 169 169
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 13 / 49
Empirical Examination Effect on Population Density
The Neolithic Revolution and Population Density 1-1500
0.2
.4.6
.81
Effe
ct o
f Neo
lithi
c on
Pop
ulat
ion
Den
sity
1 500 1000 1500Year
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 14 / 49
Empirical Examination Effect on Population Density
The Neolithic Revolution on Population Density in 1500
Log [Population Density 1500CE]
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Years Since Neolithic Revolution 0.47*** 0.54*** 0.55*** 0.56***
(0.07) (0.12) (0.12) (0.12)
Caloric Suitability (pre-1500CE) 0.45*** 0.43*** 0.43***
(0.09) (0.09) (0.08)
Predicted Genetic Diversity 7.42**
(3.34)
Predicted Genetic Diversity Squared -6.83**
(3.37)
Continental FE No Yes Yes Yes
Additional Geographical Controls No No Yes Yes
Adjusted-R2 0.21 0.39 0.49 0.52
Observations 168 168 168 168
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 15 / 49
Empirical Examination Effect on Population Density
The Neolithic Revolution on Population Density in 1500
AGO
BDIBEN
BFA
BWACAF
CIV
CMR
COG
CPV
DZA
EGY
ETH
GAB
GHA
GIN
GMB
GNB
KEN LBR
LBY
LSOMAR
MDG
MLI
MOZ
MRTMUSMWI
NAM
NER
NGA
RWA
SDN
SEN
SLE
SOM
SWZ
TCD
TGO
TUN
TZA
UGA
ZAF
ZAR
ZMB
ZWE
ALB
AND
AUT
BEL
BGRBIH
BLR
CHECYP
CZE
DEU
DNK
ESP
ESTFIN
FRA
GBR
GRCHRV
HUN
IRL
ISL
ITA
LTU
LUX
LVA
MDA
MKD
MLT
NLD
NOR
POL
PRT
ROM
RUS
SVK
SVNSWE
UKRYUG
AFG
ARE
ARM
AZE
BGD
BHR
BRNBTN
CHN
GEO
HKG
IDN
IND
IRN
IRQISR
JOR
JPN
KAZ
KGZKHM KOR KWT
LAO
LBN
LKA
MAC
MMR
MNG
MYS
NPL
OMN
PAK
PHL
PRK
QAT
SAUSGP
SYR
THA
TJK
TKMTUR
UZB
VNM
YEM
AUSMNP
NZL
PNG
ARG
BLZ
BOLBRA
BRB
CAN
CHL
COLCRI
CUB
DOM
ECU
GRD
GTM
GUY
HND
HTI
JAM
MEX
NIC
PAN
PER
PRI
PRY
SLV
SUR
TTO
URY
USA
VEN
-4-2
02
46
-4000 -2000 0 2000 4000
Africa Europe Asia Oceania Americas
(Con
trol v
aria
bles
hel
d at
zer
o)Lo
g Po
pula
tion
Dens
ity in
150
0
Years Since Neolithic Transition
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 16 / 49
Empirical Examination Effect on Urbanization
The Neolithic Revolution on Urbanization in 1-1500
Log [Urbanization 1-1500CE]
1CE 1000CE 1500CE
(1) (2) (3)
Years Since Neolithic Revolution 0.52** 0.35** -0.15
(0.23) (0.16) (0.13)
Caloric Suitability (pre-1500CE) -0.06 0.08 0.27**
(0.18) (0.18) (0.13)
Continental FE Yes Yes Yes
Additional Geographical Controls Yes Yes Yes
Adjusted-R2 0.14 0.20 0.23
Observations 125 125 125
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 17 / 49
Empirical Examination Effect on Urbanization
The Neolithic Revolution on Urbanization in 1500
Log [Urbanization 1500CE]
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Years Since Neolithic Revolution 0.38*** 0.11 -0.07 0.02
(0.09) (0.11) (0.10) (0.12)
Caloric Suitability (pre-1500CE) 0.01 0.27** 0.31***
(0.15) (0.12) (0.09)
Predicted Genetic Diversity 21.00***
(6.55)
Predicted Genetic Diversity Squared -20.06***
(6.97)
Continental FE No Yes Yes Yes
Additional Geographical Controls No No Yes Yes
Adjusted-R2 0.13 0.25 0.45 0.68
Observations 84 84 84 84
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 18 / 49
Empirical Examination Effect on Urbanization
The Effect of the NR on Population Density and Urbanization in 1500
Development in 1500CE
Log [PD] Log [UR]
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Years Since Neolithic Revolution 0.37*** 0.48*** -0.07 0.02
(0.09) (0.12) (0.10) (0.12)
Caloric Suitability (pre-1500CE) 0.39*** 0.44*** 0.27** 0.31***
(0.11) (0.09) (0.12) (0.09)
Predicted Genetic Diversity 16.97*** 21.00***
(5.62) (6.55)
Predicted Genetic Diversity Squared -16.68*** -20.06***
(5.94) (6.97)
Continental FE Yes Yes Yes Yes
Additional Geographical Controls Yes Yes Yes Yes
Adjusted-R2 0.66 0.76 0.45 0.68
Observations 84 84 84 84
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 19 / 49
Empirical Examination Effect on Urbanization
The Effect of the NR on Population Density and Urbanization in 1500
Development in 1500CE
Semi-Partial R2
Log [PD] Log [UR]
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Years Since Neolithic Revolution 0.05*** 0.05*** 0.00 0.00
Caloric Suitability (pre-1500CE) 0.05*** 0.06*** 0.03** 0.03***
Predicted Genetic Diversity 0.03*** 0.05***
Predicted Genetic Diversity Squared 0.03*** 0.04***
Continental FE Yes Yes Yes Yes
Additional Geographical Controls Yes Yes Yes Yes
Adjusted-R2 0.66 0.76 0.45 0.68
Observations 84 84 84 84
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 20 / 49
Empirical Examination Effect on Urbanization
Genetic Diversity and Urbanization in 1500
DZAEGY
MAR
TUN
ALB
AUT
BEL
BGR
BLRCHE
CZE
DEUDNK
ESP
EST
FINFRA
GBR
GRC
HRV
HUN
ITA
LTULVA
MDAMKD
NLD
NORPOL
PRT
ROM
RUS
SVK
SVN
SWE
UKR
BGD CHN
IDN
IND
IRNISR
JPN
KAZ
KORLAO
LKA
MYS
PAK
PHL
SAU
SGP
SYR
THA
TUR
UZB
VNM
AUS
NZL
ARG
BLZ
BOL
BRA
CAN
CHL
COL
CRI
DOM
ECUGTM
GUY
HND
HTIJAM
MEX
NIC PAN
PER
PRY
SLV
URY
USA
VEN
3031
3233
34
.25 .3 .35 .4 .45
Africa Europe Asia Oceania Americas
(Con
trol v
aria
bles
hel
d at
zer
o)Lo
g ur
bani
zatio
n ra
te in
150
0
(Predicted) Genetic homogeneity
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 21 / 49
Empirical Examination Effect on Urbanization
Interpretation
The Neolithic Revolution has a dual effect on development
Technological head start =⇒ higher population densityComparative advantage in agriculture =⇒ higher population density
Positive overall effect on population density
Technological head start =⇒ higher urbanizationComparative advantage in agriculture =⇒ lower urbanization
Ambiguous overall effect on urbanization
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 22 / 49
Empirical Examination Effect on Urbanization
Interpretation
The Neolithic Revolution has a dual effect on development
Technological head start =⇒ higher population density
Comparative advantage in agriculture =⇒ higher population density
Positive overall effect on population density
Technological head start =⇒ higher urbanizationComparative advantage in agriculture =⇒ lower urbanization
Ambiguous overall effect on urbanization
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 22 / 49
Empirical Examination Effect on Urbanization
Interpretation
The Neolithic Revolution has a dual effect on development
Technological head start =⇒ higher population densityComparative advantage in agriculture =⇒ higher population density
Positive overall effect on population density
Technological head start =⇒ higher urbanizationComparative advantage in agriculture =⇒ lower urbanization
Ambiguous overall effect on urbanization
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 22 / 49
Empirical Examination Effect on Urbanization
Interpretation
The Neolithic Revolution has a dual effect on development
Technological head start =⇒ higher population densityComparative advantage in agriculture =⇒ higher population density
Positive overall effect on population density
Technological head start =⇒ higher urbanizationComparative advantage in agriculture =⇒ lower urbanization
Ambiguous overall effect on urbanization
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 22 / 49
Empirical Examination Effect on Urbanization
Interpretation
The Neolithic Revolution has a dual effect on development
Technological head start =⇒ higher population densityComparative advantage in agriculture =⇒ higher population density
Positive overall effect on population density
Technological head start =⇒ higher urbanization
Comparative advantage in agriculture =⇒ lower urbanization
Ambiguous overall effect on urbanization
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 22 / 49
Empirical Examination Effect on Urbanization
Interpretation
The Neolithic Revolution has a dual effect on development
Technological head start =⇒ higher population densityComparative advantage in agriculture =⇒ higher population density
Positive overall effect on population density
Technological head start =⇒ higher urbanizationComparative advantage in agriculture =⇒ lower urbanization
Ambiguous overall effect on urbanization
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 22 / 49
Empirical Examination Effect on Urbanization
Interpretation
The Neolithic Revolution has a dual effect on development
Technological head start =⇒ higher population densityComparative advantage in agriculture =⇒ higher population density
Positive overall effect on population density
Technological head start =⇒ higher urbanizationComparative advantage in agriculture =⇒ lower urbanization
Ambiguous overall effect on urbanization
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 22 / 49
Empirical Examination Association with Current Income per Capita
The Neolithic Revolution and Income per Capita in 2000
Log [GDPpc 2000CE]
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
Years Since Neolithic Revolution 0.40*** -0.07 0.01 -0.34**
(0.08) (0.10) (0.09) (0.15)
Years Since Neolithic Revolution (Ancestors) 0.59*** 0.08 0.11 0.40***
(0.08) (0.10) (0.09) (0.14)
Caloric Suitability (pre-1500CE) -0.26*** -0.18** -0.26*** -0.16* -0.13
(0.09) (0.09) (0.09) (0.09) (0.09)
Predicted Genetic Diversity (Ancestors) 7.47*** 7.52*** 6.48***
(2.33) (2.29) (2.18)
Predicted Genetic Diversity (Ancestors, Sq.) -7.55*** -7.62*** -6.66***
(2.36) (2.32) (2.20)
Continental FE No Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes
Additional Geographical Controls No Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes
Legal Origin FE No No Yes No No Yes Yes
R2 0.16 0.78 0.84 0.34 0.78 0.84 0.85
Adjusted-R2 0.15 0.74 0.80 0.34 0.74 0.80 0.81
Observations 111 111 111 111 111 111 111
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 23 / 49
Empirical Examination Association with Current Income per Capita
Genetic Diversity and Income per Capita in 2000
AGO
BDI
BEN
BFA
BWA
CAF
CIV
CMR
COG
DZA
EGY
ETH
GAB
GHA
GIN
GMB
GNB
KEN
LSO
MAR
MDG
MLI
MOZMRT
MWI
NAM
NER
NGA
RWA
SDN
SEN
SLE
SOM
SWZ
TCD
TGO
TUN
TZA
UGA
ZAF
ZMB
ZWE
AUT
BEL
BGR
CHECYPDEU
DNK
ESP
FIN
FRA
GBR
GRC
HUNIRL
ITA
NLD
NORPOL
PRT
ROMSWE
BGD
CHN
IDN
IND
IRN
IRQ
ISR
JOR
JPN
KOR
LKA
MYS
OMN
PAK
PHL
SAU
SYR
THA
TUR
AUS
NZL
PNG
ARG
BOL
BRA
CAN
CHL
COL
CRI
DOM
ECU
GTM
GUY
HND
HTI
JAM
MEX
NIC
PAN
PER
PRY
SLV
TTO
URY
USA
VEN
13.5
1414
.515
15.5
16
.2 .25 .3 .35 .4
Africa Europe Asia Oceania Americas
(Con
trol
var
iabl
es h
eld
at z
ero)
Log
inco
me
per
capi
ta in
200
0
(Predicted) Ancestry−adjusted genetic homogeneity
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 24 / 49
Dual Effect on Life Expectancy Theory
The Dual Effect of the NR on Life Expectancy
The Neolithic Revolution increased the exposure and the vulnerability ofhumans to infectious diseases via the:
Rise in population densityDomestication of animalsIncrease in work effort
Natural selection of individuals who were genetically pre-disposed towardsresistance to infectious diseases
Reduction in mortality from infectious diseasesAn increase in the prevalence of autoimmune diseases
Variation in the timing of the Neolithic Revolution among the ancestral pop-ulations of each region contributed to the variation in life expectancy acrossregions
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 25 / 49
Dual Effect on Life Expectancy Theory
The Dual Effect of the NR on Life Expectancy
The Neolithic Revolution increased the exposure and the vulnerability ofhumans to infectious diseases via the:
Rise in population density
Domestication of animalsIncrease in work effort
Natural selection of individuals who were genetically pre-disposed towardsresistance to infectious diseases
Reduction in mortality from infectious diseasesAn increase in the prevalence of autoimmune diseases
Variation in the timing of the Neolithic Revolution among the ancestral pop-ulations of each region contributed to the variation in life expectancy acrossregions
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 25 / 49
Dual Effect on Life Expectancy Theory
The Dual Effect of the NR on Life Expectancy
The Neolithic Revolution increased the exposure and the vulnerability ofhumans to infectious diseases via the:
Rise in population densityDomestication of animals
Increase in work effort
Natural selection of individuals who were genetically pre-disposed towardsresistance to infectious diseases
Reduction in mortality from infectious diseasesAn increase in the prevalence of autoimmune diseases
Variation in the timing of the Neolithic Revolution among the ancestral pop-ulations of each region contributed to the variation in life expectancy acrossregions
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 25 / 49
Dual Effect on Life Expectancy Theory
The Dual Effect of the NR on Life Expectancy
The Neolithic Revolution increased the exposure and the vulnerability ofhumans to infectious diseases via the:
Rise in population densityDomestication of animalsIncrease in work effort
Natural selection of individuals who were genetically pre-disposed towardsresistance to infectious diseases
Reduction in mortality from infectious diseasesAn increase in the prevalence of autoimmune diseases
Variation in the timing of the Neolithic Revolution among the ancestral pop-ulations of each region contributed to the variation in life expectancy acrossregions
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 25 / 49
Dual Effect on Life Expectancy Theory
The Dual Effect of the NR on Life Expectancy
The Neolithic Revolution increased the exposure and the vulnerability ofhumans to infectious diseases via the:
Rise in population densityDomestication of animalsIncrease in work effort
Natural selection of individuals who were genetically pre-disposed towardsresistance to infectious diseases
Reduction in mortality from infectious diseasesAn increase in the prevalence of autoimmune diseases
Variation in the timing of the Neolithic Revolution among the ancestral pop-ulations of each region contributed to the variation in life expectancy acrossregions
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 25 / 49
Dual Effect on Life Expectancy Theory
The Dual Effect of the NR on Life Expectancy
The Neolithic Revolution increased the exposure and the vulnerability ofhumans to infectious diseases via the:
Rise in population densityDomestication of animalsIncrease in work effort
Natural selection of individuals who were genetically pre-disposed towardsresistance to infectious diseases
Reduction in mortality from infectious diseases
An increase in the prevalence of autoimmune diseases
Variation in the timing of the Neolithic Revolution among the ancestral pop-ulations of each region contributed to the variation in life expectancy acrossregions
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 25 / 49
Dual Effect on Life Expectancy Theory
The Dual Effect of the NR on Life Expectancy
The Neolithic Revolution increased the exposure and the vulnerability ofhumans to infectious diseases via the:
Rise in population densityDomestication of animalsIncrease in work effort
Natural selection of individuals who were genetically pre-disposed towardsresistance to infectious diseases
Reduction in mortality from infectious diseasesAn increase in the prevalence of autoimmune diseases
Variation in the timing of the Neolithic Revolution among the ancestral pop-ulations of each region contributed to the variation in life expectancy acrossregions
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 25 / 49
Dual Effect on Life Expectancy Theory
The Dual Effect of the NR on Life Expectancy
The Neolithic Revolution increased the exposure and the vulnerability ofhumans to infectious diseases via the:
Rise in population densityDomestication of animalsIncrease in work effort
Natural selection of individuals who were genetically pre-disposed towardsresistance to infectious diseases
Reduction in mortality from infectious diseasesAn increase in the prevalence of autoimmune diseases
Variation in the timing of the Neolithic Revolution among the ancestral pop-ulations of each region contributed to the variation in life expectancy acrossregions
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 25 / 49
Dual Effect on Life Expectancy Data
The Timing of the Neolithic Revolution in Europe and the Middle East
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 26 / 49
Dual Effect on Life Expectancy Data
Projected Timing of the Neolithic Revolution in France
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 27 / 49
Dual Effect on Life Expectancy Evidence
The Effect of the NR on the Evolution of Life Expectancy: France1806-2013
-2-1
.5-1
-.50
.51
1.5
2Ef
fect
of N
eolit
hic
on L
ife E
xpec
tanc
y
1806
1831
1856
1881
1906
1952
1975
1990
1996
2001
2006
2011
YearOded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 28 / 49
Dual Effect on Life Expectancy Evidence
The Neolithic Origins and Mortality: French Towns 1901
Mortality Rate across Towns (1900)
All Diseases Infectious (Air) Infectious (Water) Suicides Violent Deaths
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)
Years Since Neolithic Revolution -0.40*** -0.69*** -0.34*** -0.59*** 0.14 0.07 0.10 0.12 -0.07 0.04
(0.12) (0.23) (0.10) (0.18) (0.16) (0.30) (0.12) (0.19) (0.09) (0.17)
GDP per capita (1901) 0.05 0.12 0.01 0.09 -0.03
(0.09) (0.08) (0.07) (0.07) (0.08)
Main Geographical Controls Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Additional Controls No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes
First-stage F-statistic 33.44 13.05 33.44 13.05 33.44 13.05 33.44 13.05 33.44 13.05
Adjusted-R2 0.02 -0.03 0.08 0.08 0.15 0.18 -0.01 0.00 0.09 0.09
Observations 588 588 588 588 588 588 588 588 588 588
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 29 / 49
Dual Effect on Life Expectancy Evidence
The Neolithic Origins of Diseases: French Departments 2000-2013
Incidence Prevalence
Arterialischemicevents
Liverdisease &cirrhosis
Diabetes Respiratoryfailure
Alzheimer’sdisease& otherdementias
Nephropathy Ulcerativecolitis &Crohn’sdisease
Coronaryarterydisease
Mecha-nicalHeartDiseaseHeartDisease
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)
Years Since Neolithic Revolution 0.49*** 0.57*** 0.58*** 0.42** 0.37** 0.50*** 1.00*** 0.42*** -0.01
(0.18) (0.13) (0.11) (0.18) (0.15) (0.17) (0.15) (0.16) (0.17)
GDP per capita (2000-2010) -0.41*** 0.19** -0.17* -0.11 -0.08 0.19** 0.48*** -0.37*** -0.37***
(0.10) (0.10) (0.09) (0.10) (0.13) (0.09) (0.14) (0.12) (0.11)
Main Geographical Controls Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Population Density (1700) Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
First-stage F-statistic 50.19 50.19 50.19 50.19 50.19 50.19 50.19 50.19 50.19
Adjusted-R2 0.35 0.52 0.59 0.52 0.26 0.38 0.38 0.21 0.17
Observations 89 89 89 89 89 89 89 89 89
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 30 / 49
Dual Effect on Life Expectancy Evidence
The Neolithic Origins of Mortality: French Departments 2000-2013
Non-Medical Death Rates per 100,000
Alcohol Abuse Accidents Falls
All Female Male All Female Male All Female Male
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)
Years Since Neolithic Revolution -0.06 0.19 -0.12 -0.08 -0.04 -0.10 -0.24 -0.26 -0.20
(0.12) (0.14) (0.12) (0.15) (0.16) (0.14) (0.17) (0.19) (0.15)
GDP per capita (2000-2010) -0.53*** -0.36*** -0.55*** -0.66*** -0.61*** -0.67*** -0.55*** -0.52*** -0.53***
(0.09) (0.11) (0.09) (0.11) (0.11) (0.11) (0.14) (0.14) (0.13)
Main Geographical Controls Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Population Density (1700) Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
First-stage F-statistic 50.19 50.19 50.19 50.19 50.19 50.19 49.97 49.97 49.97
Adjusted-R2 0.53 0.46 0.52 0.58 0.48 0.61 0.47 0.32 0.53
Observations 89 89 89 89 89 89 88 88 88
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 31 / 49
Geographical Factors Persistence and Reversals
Persistence and Reversals in the Role of Geographical Factors
Reversal in the role of
Land ProductivityDistance from the equator
Persistence in the role of
Disease environmentEcological diversityGeographical IsolationRange of land qualityLand suitable for large plantations
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 32 / 49
Geographical Factors Persistence and Reversals
Persistence and Reversals in the Role of Geographical Factors
Reversal in the role of
Land Productivity
Distance from the equator
Persistence in the role of
Disease environmentEcological diversityGeographical IsolationRange of land qualityLand suitable for large plantations
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 32 / 49
Geographical Factors Persistence and Reversals
Persistence and Reversals in the Role of Geographical Factors
Reversal in the role of
Land ProductivityDistance from the equator
Persistence in the role of
Disease environmentEcological diversityGeographical IsolationRange of land qualityLand suitable for large plantations
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 32 / 49
Geographical Factors Persistence and Reversals
Persistence and Reversals in the Role of Geographical Factors
Reversal in the role of
Land ProductivityDistance from the equator
Persistence in the role of
Disease environmentEcological diversityGeographical IsolationRange of land qualityLand suitable for large plantations
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 32 / 49
Geographical Factors Persistence and Reversals
Persistence and Reversals in the Role of Geographical Factors
Reversal in the role of
Land ProductivityDistance from the equator
Persistence in the role of
Disease environment
Ecological diversityGeographical IsolationRange of land qualityLand suitable for large plantations
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 32 / 49
Geographical Factors Persistence and Reversals
Persistence and Reversals in the Role of Geographical Factors
Reversal in the role of
Land ProductivityDistance from the equator
Persistence in the role of
Disease environmentEcological diversity
Geographical IsolationRange of land qualityLand suitable for large plantations
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 32 / 49
Geographical Factors Persistence and Reversals
Persistence and Reversals in the Role of Geographical Factors
Reversal in the role of
Land ProductivityDistance from the equator
Persistence in the role of
Disease environmentEcological diversityGeographical Isolation
Range of land qualityLand suitable for large plantations
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 32 / 49
Geographical Factors Persistence and Reversals
Persistence and Reversals in the Role of Geographical Factors
Reversal in the role of
Land ProductivityDistance from the equator
Persistence in the role of
Disease environmentEcological diversityGeographical IsolationRange of land quality
Land suitable for large plantations
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 32 / 49
Geographical Factors Persistence and Reversals
Persistence and Reversals in the Role of Geographical Factors
Reversal in the role of
Land ProductivityDistance from the equator
Persistence in the role of
Disease environmentEcological diversityGeographical IsolationRange of land qualityLand suitable for large plantations
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 32 / 49
Geographical Factors Reversals
Reversal in the Role of Land Productivity & Absolute Latitude
Land productivity
1-1500 CE
Positive association with population density
2000s
Negative association with income per capita
Absolute latitude
1-1500 CE
Negative association with population density
2000s
Positive association with income per capita
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 33 / 49
Geographical Factors Reversals
Reversal in the Role of Land Productivity & Absolute Latitude
Land productivity
1-1500 CE
Positive association with population density
2000s
Negative association with income per capita
Absolute latitude
1-1500 CE
Negative association with population density
2000s
Positive association with income per capita
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 33 / 49
Geographical Factors Reversals
Reversal in the Role of Land Productivity & Absolute Latitude
Land productivity
1-1500 CE
Positive association with population density
2000s
Negative association with income per capita
Absolute latitude
1-1500 CE
Negative association with population density
2000s
Positive association with income per capita
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 33 / 49
Geographical Factors Reversals
Reversal in the Role of Land Productivity & Absolute Latitude
Land productivity
1-1500 CE
Positive association with population density
2000s
Negative association with income per capita
Absolute latitude
1-1500 CE
Negative association with population density
2000s
Positive association with income per capita
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 33 / 49
Geographical Factors Reversals
Reversal in the Role of Land Productivity & Absolute Latitude
Land productivity
1-1500 CE
Positive association with population density
2000s
Negative association with income per capita
Absolute latitude
1-1500 CE
Negative association with population density
2000s
Positive association with income per capita
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 33 / 49
Geographical Factors Reversals
Reversal in the Role of Land Productivity & Absolute Latitude
Land productivity
1-1500 CE
Positive association with population density
2000s
Negative association with income per capita
Absolute latitude
1-1500 CE
Negative association with population density
2000s
Positive association with income per capita
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 33 / 49
Geographical Factors Reversals
Reversal in the Role of Land Productivity & Absolute Latitude
Land productivity
1-1500 CE
Positive association with population density
2000s
Negative association with income per capita
Absolute latitude
1-1500 CE
Negative association with population density
2000s
Positive association with income per capita
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 33 / 49
Geographical Factors Reversals
Reversal in the Role of Land Productivity & Absolute Latitude
Land productivity
1-1500 CE
Positive association with population density
2000s
Negative association with income per capita
Absolute latitude
1-1500 CE
Negative association with population density
2000s
Positive association with income per capita
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 33 / 49
Geographical Factors Reversals
Reversal in the Role of Land Productivity & Absolute Latitude
Land productivity
1-1500 CE
Positive association with population density
2000s
Negative association with income per capita
Absolute latitude
1-1500 CE
Negative association with population density
2000s
Positive association with income per capita
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 33 / 49
Geographical Factors Reversals
Reversal in the Role of Land Productivity & Absolute Latitude
Land productivity
1-1500 CE
Positive association with population density
2000s
Negative association with income per capita
Absolute latitude
1-1500 CE
Negative association with population density
2000s
Positive association with income per capita
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 33 / 49
Geographical Factors Reversals
Reversal in the Role of Land Productivity
World Non-Colony Ex-Colony World Non-Colony Ex-Colonysample sample sample sample sample sample
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Log Population Density Log Income per Capita
1500 2005
Log years since Neolithic 1.111*** 0.769* 1.383***(0.188) (0.447) (0.267)
Log years since Neolithic 0.211 -0.100 0.083(ancestry adjusted) (0.322) (0.559) (0.382)
Log land productivity 0.568*** 0.550*** 0.585*** -0.494*** -0.518*** -0.456***(0.053) (0.057) (0.115) (0.078) 0.087 0.141
Log absolute latitude -0.330*** -0.491*** -0.302** 0.375*** 0.891** 0.139(0.106) (0.136) (0.123) (0.142) (0.432) (0.149)
Continental dummies Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Observations 143 68 75 143 68 75
R2 0.73 0.72 0.70 0.62 0.64 0.57
Additional Controls: mean distance to nearest coast & river and % land within 100 km of coast & river.
Robust standard errors in parentheses; *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1.
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 34 / 49
Geographical Factors Reversals
Origins of the Reversal in the Role of Land Productivity
The effect is nearly identical in the:
World sample
Former colonies sample (Acemoglu-Johnson-Robinson, QJE 2002)
Non-former colonies sample
=⇒ Reversal in the role of land productivity is largely independent ofthe forces of colonialism
Acquired comparative advantage in agriculture & delayed industrial transition(Galor-Mountford, RES, 2008)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 35 / 49
Geographical Factors Reversals
Origins of the Reversal in the Role of Land Productivity
The effect is nearly identical in the:
World sample
Former colonies sample (Acemoglu-Johnson-Robinson, QJE 2002)
Non-former colonies sample
=⇒ Reversal in the role of land productivity is largely independent ofthe forces of colonialism
Acquired comparative advantage in agriculture & delayed industrial transition(Galor-Mountford, RES, 2008)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 35 / 49
Geographical Factors Reversals
Origins of the Reversal in the Role of Land Productivity
The effect is nearly identical in the:
World sample
Former colonies sample (Acemoglu-Johnson-Robinson, QJE 2002)
Non-former colonies sample
=⇒ Reversal in the role of land productivity is largely independent ofthe forces of colonialism
Acquired comparative advantage in agriculture & delayed industrial transition(Galor-Mountford, RES, 2008)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 35 / 49
Geographical Factors Reversals
Origins of the Reversal in the Role of Land Productivity
The effect is nearly identical in the:
World sample
Former colonies sample (Acemoglu-Johnson-Robinson, QJE 2002)
Non-former colonies sample
=⇒ Reversal in the role of land productivity is largely independent ofthe forces of colonialism
Acquired comparative advantage in agriculture & delayed industrial transition(Galor-Mountford, RES, 2008)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 35 / 49
Geographical Factors Reversals
Origins of the Reversal in the Role of Land Productivity
The effect is nearly identical in the:
World sample
Former colonies sample (Acemoglu-Johnson-Robinson, QJE 2002)
Non-former colonies sample
=⇒ Reversal in the role of land productivity is largely independent ofthe forces of colonialism
Acquired comparative advantage in agriculture & delayed industrial transition(Galor-Mountford, RES, 2008)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 35 / 49
Geographical Factors Reversals
Origins of the Reversal in the Role of Land Productivity
The effect is nearly identical in the:
World sample
Former colonies sample (Acemoglu-Johnson-Robinson, QJE 2002)
Non-former colonies sample
=⇒ Reversal in the role of land productivity is largely independent ofthe forces of colonialism
Acquired comparative advantage in agriculture & delayed industrial transition(Galor-Mountford, RES, 2008)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 35 / 49
Geographical Factors Reversal: Land Productivity
Land Productivity and Population Density in 1500
OMNARE
KWTQAT
MRTSAUNOR
LBY
EGY
BWA
NAM
FIN
YEM
SUR
COGMNGSWE
GAB
JOR
CHL
CAN
DZA
RUS
AGO
ZAR
LBRCOL
VENNER
MYS
BLZIRL
PER
SVNTCDTKMMLI
CRI
GUY
MDG
PANPNG
CHE
EST
CAF
AUT
MOZ
BRA
NLDBOL
BLR
LVA
GBR
IDN
ECUPRT
LAO
BEL
BIH
KEN
NZL
IRN
AUS
ZWE
ALB
SLE
LTU
IRQKGZTZA
GRC
SEN
DEU
ZAF
GIN
GNBHRV
HND
TJK
ZMB
CUB
PRYUZB
DNKCIV
SDN
LKA
CMR
CZEITA
ESP
ISRPOL
HTI
SWZ
FRANIC
PAK
DOM
ARG
TUN
JPN
BGR
MKD
MEX
MDAURY
AFG
VNM
USAPHL
GMB
GEO
UKR
MAR
HUNROM
KOR
ETH
GTM
LSO
KHM
BFA
SLV
SYRGHA
LBN
KAZ
CHN
THA
UGA
NPL
MWI
BENNGA
ARM
RWA
BGD
BDI
AZETGOTUR
IND
21
01
23
Log
Pop
ulat
ion
Den
sity
in 1
500
4 2 0 2Log Land Productivity
coef = .56769725, (robust) se = .05303816, t = 10.7
Conditional on years since Neolithic transition, geographical factors, and continental fixed effects.
Source: Ashraf-Galor (AER 2011)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 36 / 49
Geographical Factors Reversal: Land Productivity
Land Productivity and Income per Capita in 2005
OMN
KWT
AREQAT
MRT
NORSAULBY
EGY
BWA
NAMFIN
YEM
COG
MNG
SWE
GAB
JOR
CHL
PNG
DZA
RUS
AGOCOL
ZAR
VEN
CAN
PERBLZ
NER
LBR
IRL
GUY
TCDSVN
MLI
MYS
TKMCRI
MDGBOL
PAN
BTN
BRA
CHE
EST
MOZ
AUTECU
CAF
NLD
BLR
GBR
LVAIDNPRT
LAO
BEL
BIH
ZWE
KEN
SLE
LTU
IRN
ALB
TZA
KGZIRQPRYHND
NZL
SEN
GIN
GRCDEU
GNB
HRV
TJK
UZB
MEX
ZMB
NIC
DNKISR
CIVCMRSWZ
SDNLKACZE
ZAF
POL
ESPITAFRA
ARG
HTI
PAK
JPN
TUN
BGR
AUS
MKD
GTM
USA
URY
MDA
AFG
DOM
VNM
PHL
GMB
UKR
GEOHUNLSO
ROM
KOR
MAR
CUB
ETH
SLV
KHM
BFAGHA
KAZ
SYR
LBNUGA
CHN
NPL
THA
MWI
BENNGA
ARM
RWA
BGD
BDI
AZETGO
TUR
IND
42
02
4Lo
g In
com
e pe
r Cap
ita in
200
5
4 2 0 2Log Land Productivity
coef = .49436427, (robust) se = .07843498, t = 6.3
Conditional on years since Neolithic transition, geographical factors, and continental fixed effects.
Source: Ashraf-Galor (AER 2013)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 37 / 49
Geographical Factors Reversal: Distance from the Equator
Reversal in the Role of Distance from the Equator
World Non-Colony Ex-Colony World Non-Colony Ex-Colonysample sample sample sample sample sample
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Log Population Density Log Income per Capita
1500 2005
Log years since Neolithic 1.111*** 0.769* 1.383***(0.188) (0.447) (0.267)
Log years since Neolithic 0.211 -0.100 0.083(ancestry adjusted) (0.322) (0.559) (0.382)
Log land productivity 0.568*** 0.550*** 0.585*** -0.494*** -0.518*** -0.456***(0.053) (0.057) (0.115) (0.078) 0.087 0.141
Log absolute latitude -0.330*** -0.491*** -0.302** 0.375*** 0.891** 0.139(0.106) (0.136) (0.123) (0.142) (0.432) (0.149)
Continental dummies Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Observations 143 68 75 143 68 75
R2 0.73 0.72 0.70 0.62 0.64 0.57
Additional Controls: mean distance to nearest coast & river and % land within 100 km of coast & river.
Robust standard errors in parentheses; *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1.
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 38 / 49
Geographical Factors Reversal: Distance from the Equator
Distance from the Equator and Population Density in 1500
ZAR
MYS
COGUGA
GABKEN
ECU
RWA
IDNSUR
LKA
COL
BDI
GUY
PNGKHM
PHL
TZA
VEN
YEM
THA
PANCAF
CMR
VNM
CRI
BRA
LBRRUS
LAO
PER
OMNPRTESP
GRCALB
CIVAREMKD
ETH
CHE
GHATGO
IND
BIH
SAU
BGR
ITA
SLESVN
NIC
AUT
HRVQAT
AGO
BLR
LVA
FRA
ROM
IRL
LTU
BEL
FIN
MDA
NOR
BGD
HUNEST
UKR
CZE
NGA
SLV
BEN
NLD
AUS
GBR
POL
HTI
HNDDEU
DNKSWE
CUBNPL
KWT
DOMGTMGIN
KGZ
BOL
ZMB
PAK
TCDMNG
MWI
BLZ
UZBTJK
BFA
AFGJOR
GNBTKMKAZIRN
JPN
IRQ
CHN
BWA
KOR
NER
ISRMLI
GMB
SENMOZ
SDN
SYR
LBN
NAM
ZWE
AZEGEOARMPRY
MEX
MRT
TURMDG
NZLCHL
SWZ
URY
ARG
LBYCANZAFLSO
USA
DZA
EGY
MARTUN
21
01
2Lo
g P
opul
atio
n D
ensi
ty in
150
0
2 1 0 1 2Log Absolute Latitude
coef = .33068066, (robust) se = .10617177, t = 3.11
Conditional on years since Neolithic transition, geographical factors, and continental fixed effects.
Source: Ashraf-Galor (AER 2011)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 39 / 49
Geographical Factors Reversal: Distance from the Equator
Distance from the Equator and Income per Capita in 2005
ZAR
COGUGA
GAB
KEN
MYS
ECURWA
IDNCOL
LKA
PNG
GUY
BDI
VEN
YEM
KHMPHLCAFPANTZA
CMRBRA
PER
THA
CRI
LBR
VNMOMN
LAO
RUS
GRCPRT
ETH
ESP
ALB
CIV
MKD
GHAIND
ITAARE
BGR
BIH
TGO
NICSLE
SVN
SAU
HRV
FRACHEQAT
ROM
AUT
HUN
MDA
SLVBENCZE
UKR
DEU
HND
BELNGANLDIRL
POL
KWT
BOL
NOR
BLR
GBR
GTM
BGDGINPAKBLZ
DNK
BTNLVALTU
SWE
JOR
AFG
EST
NPL
FINIRN
KGZ
TCD
TJK
IRQBFA
AGO
UZB
TKM
GNB
SDN
NER
ISR
CHNDOM
AUSKAZ
MNG
HTI
ZMBSYR
LBN
MWIMLIGMB
SENCUB
PRY
MEXAZE
JPN
ARM
KOR
TUR
MRT
GEOCHL
BWA
MOZ
ZWE
NAMLBY
MDG
NZLARGURY
EGY
USA
DZA
CAN
SWZ
ZAF
LSOMARTUN
42
02
4Lo
g In
com
e pe
r Cap
ita in
200
5
3 2 1 0 1Log Absolute Latitude
coef = .37452849, (robust) se = .14185733, t = 2.64
Conditional on years since Neolithic transition, geographical factors, and continental fixed effects.
Source: Ashraf-Galor (AER 2013)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 40 / 49
Geographical Factors Reversal: Distance from the Equator
Origins of the Reversal in the Role of Distance from the Equator
The effect is qualitatively similar in the:
World sample
Non-former colonies sample
=⇒ Reversal in the role of distance from the equator is largely inde-pendent of the forces of colonialism
Temperate drift hypothesis: Advanced technologies gradually complementedproduction in temperate zones
Body size: high metabolic costs of fertility have emerged due to positiveselection towards greater cold tolerance in locations away from the equator(Dalgaard-Strulik, 2014)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 41 / 49
Geographical Factors Reversal: Distance from the Equator
Origins of the Reversal in the Role of Distance from the Equator
The effect is qualitatively similar in the:
World sample
Non-former colonies sample
=⇒ Reversal in the role of distance from the equator is largely inde-pendent of the forces of colonialism
Temperate drift hypothesis: Advanced technologies gradually complementedproduction in temperate zones
Body size: high metabolic costs of fertility have emerged due to positiveselection towards greater cold tolerance in locations away from the equator(Dalgaard-Strulik, 2014)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 41 / 49
Geographical Factors Reversal: Distance from the Equator
Origins of the Reversal in the Role of Distance from the Equator
The effect is qualitatively similar in the:
World sample
Non-former colonies sample
=⇒ Reversal in the role of distance from the equator is largely inde-pendent of the forces of colonialism
Temperate drift hypothesis: Advanced technologies gradually complementedproduction in temperate zones
Body size: high metabolic costs of fertility have emerged due to positiveselection towards greater cold tolerance in locations away from the equator(Dalgaard-Strulik, 2014)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 41 / 49
Geographical Factors Reversal: Distance from the Equator
Origins of the Reversal in the Role of Distance from the Equator
The effect is qualitatively similar in the:
World sample
Non-former colonies sample
=⇒ Reversal in the role of distance from the equator is largely inde-pendent of the forces of colonialism
Temperate drift hypothesis: Advanced technologies gradually complementedproduction in temperate zones
Body size: high metabolic costs of fertility have emerged due to positiveselection towards greater cold tolerance in locations away from the equator(Dalgaard-Strulik, 2014)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 41 / 49
Geographical Factors Reversal: Distance from the Equator
Origins of the Reversal in the Role of Distance from the Equator
The effect is qualitatively similar in the:
World sample
Non-former colonies sample
=⇒ Reversal in the role of distance from the equator is largely inde-pendent of the forces of colonialism
Temperate drift hypothesis: Advanced technologies gradually complementedproduction in temperate zones
Body size: high metabolic costs of fertility have emerged due to positiveselection towards greater cold tolerance in locations away from the equator(Dalgaard-Strulik, 2014)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 41 / 49
Geographical Factors Reversal: Distance from the Equator
Origins of the Reversal in the Role of Distance from the Equator
The effect is qualitatively similar in the:
World sample
Non-former colonies sample
=⇒ Reversal in the role of distance from the equator is largely inde-pendent of the forces of colonialism
Temperate drift hypothesis: Advanced technologies gradually complementedproduction in temperate zones
Body size: high metabolic costs of fertility have emerged due to positiveselection towards greater cold tolerance in locations away from the equator(Dalgaard-Strulik, 2014)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 41 / 49
Geographical Factors Persistent: Institutions & Human Diversity
Population Density in 1500 and Income per Capita in 2005 —World Sample
CANAUSUSA
ARGURYBRABWANAM
GUY
LBY
FINNZL
MNG
VEN
LSO
SWZ
ZAF
PRY
MLIMRT
NER
TCD
DZA
OMN
RUSCHL
MWI
ZMBZWE
BOL
ARE
BHR
KWTQAT
KAZ
KGZTJK
TKM
UZB
SAU
COL
MDG
MYS
MOZ
NOR
CUBDOM
HTI
AGO
CAF
CMR
COG
GAB
ZAR
PNG
PERBLZCRI
GTMHNDNIC
PAN
SLV
PHL
SDNLAO
ETH
SWE
TZA
ECUJOR
IRQ
IRNBLR
ESTLTULVA
MDA
UKR
MEX
KEN
ARMAZEGEO
AFG
MARTHA
EGYYEMIDN
BENBFA
CIV
GHA
GINGMBGNB
LBR
NGASEN
SLETGO
TUN
VNM
BGRALB
UGA
LBN
SYR
GRC
TUR
KHM
ROMBIH
HRV
MKD
SVN
IRL
CHN
ESP
POLHUN
PRTISR
NPL
DNK
LKA
GBR
KOR
CHE
CZE
AUT
BDI
RWA
DEU
BGD
INDPAK
NLDFRAITABELJPN
42
02
4Lo
g In
com
e pe
r Cap
ita in
200
5
4 2 0 2 4Log Population Density in 1500
coef = .04305199, (robust) se = .11347758, t = .38
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 42 / 49
Geographical Factors Persistent: Institutions & Human Diversity
Population Density in 1500 & Income per Capita in 2005 —Ex-ColoniesSample
CANAUSUSA
ARGURYBRABWA
NAM
GUY
NZL
VEN
LSO
SWZ
ZAF
PRY
MLI
MRT
NER
TCD
DZA
CHL
MWI
ZMBZWE
BOL
COL
MDG
MYS
MOZ
DOM
HTI
AGO
CAF
CMR
COG
GAB
PERBLZCRI
GTM
HNDNIC
PAN
SLV
PHL
SDNLAO
ETH
TZA
ECU
MEX
KEN
MAR
EGYIDN
BENBFA
CIV
GHA
GINGMB
NGASEN
SLETGO
TUN
VNM
UGA NPL
LKA
BDI
RWA
BGD
INDPAK
20
24
Log
Inco
me
per C
apita
in 2
005
4 2 0 2 4Log Population Density in 1500
coef = .54395783, (robust) se = .07224269, t = 7.53
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 43 / 49
Geographical Factors Persistent: Institutions & Human Diversity
Reversal of Fortune
This reversal in the relative performance of countries is:
Absent in the world sample
Present in the former colonies sample
=⇒ Reversal of Fortune is largely triggered by colonialism (Engerman-
Sokoloff, 1997; Acemoglu et al., AER 2001, QJE 2002)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 44 / 49
Geographical Factors Persistent: Institutions & Human Diversity
Reversal of Fortune
This reversal in the relative performance of countries is:
Absent in the world sample
Present in the former colonies sample
=⇒ Reversal of Fortune is largely triggered by colonialism (Engerman-
Sokoloff, 1997; Acemoglu et al., AER 2001, QJE 2002)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 44 / 49
Geographical Factors Persistent: Institutions & Human Diversity
Reversal of Fortune
This reversal in the relative performance of countries is:
Absent in the world sample
Present in the former colonies sample
=⇒ Reversal of Fortune is largely triggered by colonialism (Engerman-
Sokoloff, 1997; Acemoglu et al., AER 2001, QJE 2002)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 44 / 49
Geographical Factors Persistent: Institutions & Human Diversity
Reversal of Fortune
This reversal in the relative performance of countries is:
Absent in the world sample
Present in the former colonies sample
=⇒ Reversal of Fortune is largely triggered by colonialism (Engerman-
Sokoloff, 1997; Acemoglu et al., AER 2001, QJE 2002)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 44 / 49
Geographical Factors Persistent: Institutions & Human Diversity
Origins of Reversal of Fortune among Ex-Colonies
Persistent effect of institutions implemented by colonial powers (Engerman-Sokoloff,1997; Acemoglu et al., AER 2001, QJE 2002)
Exclusive (growth retarding) institutions imposed in densely populatedareasInclusive (growth enhancing) institutions implemented in sparsely popu-lated areas
Persistent effect of the human capital and diversity brought by the colonists
Larger effect of colonizers in sparsely populated areas (Glaeser et al., JEG 2004;Easterly-Levine, 2016; Ashraf-Galor, 2014)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 45 / 49
Geographical Factors Persistent: Institutions & Human Diversity
Origins of Reversal of Fortune among Ex-Colonies
Persistent effect of institutions implemented by colonial powers (Engerman-Sokoloff,1997; Acemoglu et al., AER 2001, QJE 2002)
Exclusive (growth retarding) institutions imposed in densely populatedareas
Inclusive (growth enhancing) institutions implemented in sparsely popu-lated areas
Persistent effect of the human capital and diversity brought by the colonists
Larger effect of colonizers in sparsely populated areas (Glaeser et al., JEG 2004;Easterly-Levine, 2016; Ashraf-Galor, 2014)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 45 / 49
Geographical Factors Persistent: Institutions & Human Diversity
Origins of Reversal of Fortune among Ex-Colonies
Persistent effect of institutions implemented by colonial powers (Engerman-Sokoloff,1997; Acemoglu et al., AER 2001, QJE 2002)
Exclusive (growth retarding) institutions imposed in densely populatedareasInclusive (growth enhancing) institutions implemented in sparsely popu-lated areas
Persistent effect of the human capital and diversity brought by the colonists
Larger effect of colonizers in sparsely populated areas (Glaeser et al., JEG 2004;Easterly-Levine, 2016; Ashraf-Galor, 2014)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 45 / 49
Geographical Factors Persistent: Institutions & Human Diversity
Origins of Reversal of Fortune among Ex-Colonies
Persistent effect of institutions implemented by colonial powers (Engerman-Sokoloff,1997; Acemoglu et al., AER 2001, QJE 2002)
Exclusive (growth retarding) institutions imposed in densely populatedareasInclusive (growth enhancing) institutions implemented in sparsely popu-lated areas
Persistent effect of the human capital and diversity brought by the colonists
Larger effect of colonizers in sparsely populated areas (Glaeser et al., JEG 2004;Easterly-Levine, 2016; Ashraf-Galor, 2014)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 45 / 49
Geographical Factors Persistent: Institutions & Human Diversity
Origins of Reversal of Fortune among Ex-Colonies
Persistent effect of institutions implemented by colonial powers (Engerman-Sokoloff,1997; Acemoglu et al., AER 2001, QJE 2002)
Exclusive (growth retarding) institutions imposed in densely populatedareasInclusive (growth enhancing) institutions implemented in sparsely popu-lated areas
Persistent effect of the human capital and diversity brought by the colonists
Larger effect of colonizers in sparsely populated areas (Glaeser et al., JEG 2004;Easterly-Levine, 2016; Ashraf-Galor, 2014)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 45 / 49
Geographical Factors Persistent: Institutions & Human Diversity
Population Density in 1500 & Subsequent Changes in Genetic Diversity
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 46 / 49
Geographical Factors Persistence Effect of Geography
Persistent Effects of Some Geographical Factors
Disease environment
Persistent effect on labor productivity & investment in human capital(Gallup-Sachs, 2001; Andersen-Dalgaard-Selaya, RES 2016)
Geographical isolation
Reduced trade and technological diffusion (Gallup-Mellinger-Sachs, 1999)
Persistence of culture conducive for innovations (Ashraf-Galor-Ozak, JEEA 2010)
Range of soil quality
Emergence of geographical specific human capital =⇒ reduced mobility=⇒ ethnic fractionalization (Michalopoulos, AER 2012)
Persistent effect of ethnic fractionalization (Easterly-Levine, QJE 1997)
Ecological diversity & storable crops
Emergence & persistence of state capacity (Fenske, JEEA 2014; Mayshar-Moav-Neeman,2013)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 47 / 49
Geographical Factors Persistence Effect of Geography
Persistent Effects of Some Geographical Factors
Disease environment
Persistent effect on labor productivity & investment in human capital(Gallup-Sachs, 2001; Andersen-Dalgaard-Selaya, RES 2016)
Geographical isolation
Reduced trade and technological diffusion (Gallup-Mellinger-Sachs, 1999)
Persistence of culture conducive for innovations (Ashraf-Galor-Ozak, JEEA 2010)
Range of soil quality
Emergence of geographical specific human capital =⇒ reduced mobility=⇒ ethnic fractionalization (Michalopoulos, AER 2012)
Persistent effect of ethnic fractionalization (Easterly-Levine, QJE 1997)
Ecological diversity & storable crops
Emergence & persistence of state capacity (Fenske, JEEA 2014; Mayshar-Moav-Neeman,2013)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 47 / 49
Geographical Factors Persistence Effect of Geography
Persistent Effects of Some Geographical Factors
Disease environment
Persistent effect on labor productivity & investment in human capital(Gallup-Sachs, 2001; Andersen-Dalgaard-Selaya, RES 2016)
Geographical isolation
Reduced trade and technological diffusion (Gallup-Mellinger-Sachs, 1999)
Persistence of culture conducive for innovations (Ashraf-Galor-Ozak, JEEA 2010)
Range of soil quality
Emergence of geographical specific human capital =⇒ reduced mobility=⇒ ethnic fractionalization (Michalopoulos, AER 2012)
Persistent effect of ethnic fractionalization (Easterly-Levine, QJE 1997)
Ecological diversity & storable crops
Emergence & persistence of state capacity (Fenske, JEEA 2014; Mayshar-Moav-Neeman,2013)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 47 / 49
Geographical Factors Persistence Effect of Geography
Persistent Effects of Some Geographical Factors
Disease environment
Persistent effect on labor productivity & investment in human capital(Gallup-Sachs, 2001; Andersen-Dalgaard-Selaya, RES 2016)
Geographical isolation
Reduced trade and technological diffusion (Gallup-Mellinger-Sachs, 1999)
Persistence of culture conducive for innovations (Ashraf-Galor-Ozak, JEEA 2010)
Range of soil quality
Emergence of geographical specific human capital =⇒ reduced mobility=⇒ ethnic fractionalization (Michalopoulos, AER 2012)
Persistent effect of ethnic fractionalization (Easterly-Levine, QJE 1997)
Ecological diversity & storable crops
Emergence & persistence of state capacity (Fenske, JEEA 2014; Mayshar-Moav-Neeman,2013)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 47 / 49
Geographical Factors Persistence Effect of Geography
Persistent Effects of Some Geographical Factors
Disease environment
Persistent effect on labor productivity & investment in human capital(Gallup-Sachs, 2001; Andersen-Dalgaard-Selaya, RES 2016)
Geographical isolation
Reduced trade and technological diffusion (Gallup-Mellinger-Sachs, 1999)
Persistence of culture conducive for innovations (Ashraf-Galor-Ozak, JEEA 2010)
Range of soil quality
Emergence of geographical specific human capital =⇒ reduced mobility=⇒ ethnic fractionalization (Michalopoulos, AER 2012)
Persistent effect of ethnic fractionalization (Easterly-Levine, QJE 1997)
Ecological diversity & storable crops
Emergence & persistence of state capacity (Fenske, JEEA 2014; Mayshar-Moav-Neeman,2013)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 47 / 49
Geographical Factors Persistence Effect of Geography
Persistent Effects of Some Geographical Factors
Disease environment
Persistent effect on labor productivity & investment in human capital(Gallup-Sachs, 2001; Andersen-Dalgaard-Selaya, RES 2016)
Geographical isolation
Reduced trade and technological diffusion (Gallup-Mellinger-Sachs, 1999)
Persistence of culture conducive for innovations (Ashraf-Galor-Ozak, JEEA 2010)
Range of soil quality
Emergence of geographical specific human capital =⇒ reduced mobility=⇒ ethnic fractionalization (Michalopoulos, AER 2012)
Persistent effect of ethnic fractionalization (Easterly-Levine, QJE 1997)
Ecological diversity & storable crops
Emergence & persistence of state capacity (Fenske, JEEA 2014; Mayshar-Moav-Neeman,2013)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 47 / 49
Geographical Factors Persistence Effect of Geography
Persistent Effects of Some Geographical Factors
Disease environment
Persistent effect on labor productivity & investment in human capital(Gallup-Sachs, 2001; Andersen-Dalgaard-Selaya, RES 2016)
Geographical isolation
Reduced trade and technological diffusion (Gallup-Mellinger-Sachs, 1999)
Persistence of culture conducive for innovations (Ashraf-Galor-Ozak, JEEA 2010)
Range of soil quality
Emergence of geographical specific human capital =⇒ reduced mobility=⇒ ethnic fractionalization (Michalopoulos, AER 2012)
Persistent effect of ethnic fractionalization (Easterly-Levine, QJE 1997)
Ecological diversity & storable crops
Emergence & persistence of state capacity (Fenske, JEEA 2014; Mayshar-Moav-Neeman,2013)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 47 / 49
Geographical Factors Persistence Effect of Geography
Persistent Effects of Some Geographical Factors
Disease environment
Persistent effect on labor productivity & investment in human capital(Gallup-Sachs, 2001; Andersen-Dalgaard-Selaya, RES 2016)
Geographical isolation
Reduced trade and technological diffusion (Gallup-Mellinger-Sachs, 1999)
Persistence of culture conducive for innovations (Ashraf-Galor-Ozak, JEEA 2010)
Range of soil quality
Emergence of geographical specific human capital =⇒ reduced mobility=⇒ ethnic fractionalization (Michalopoulos, AER 2012)
Persistent effect of ethnic fractionalization (Easterly-Levine, QJE 1997)
Ecological diversity & storable crops
Emergence & persistence of state capacity (Fenske, JEEA 2014; Mayshar-Moav-Neeman,2013)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 47 / 49
Geographical Factors Persistence Effect of Geography
Persistent Effects of Some Geographical Factors
Disease environment
Persistent effect on labor productivity & investment in human capital(Gallup-Sachs, 2001; Andersen-Dalgaard-Selaya, RES 2016)
Geographical isolation
Reduced trade and technological diffusion (Gallup-Mellinger-Sachs, 1999)
Persistence of culture conducive for innovations (Ashraf-Galor-Ozak, JEEA 2010)
Range of soil quality
Emergence of geographical specific human capital =⇒ reduced mobility=⇒ ethnic fractionalization (Michalopoulos, AER 2012)
Persistent effect of ethnic fractionalization (Easterly-Levine, QJE 1997)
Ecological diversity & storable crops
Emergence & persistence of state capacity (Fenske, JEEA 2014; Mayshar-Moav-Neeman,2013)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 47 / 49
Geographical Factors Persistence Effect of Geography
Persistent Effects of Some Geographical Factors
Disease environment
Persistent effect on labor productivity & investment in human capital(Gallup-Sachs, 2001; Andersen-Dalgaard-Selaya, RES 2016)
Geographical isolation
Reduced trade and technological diffusion (Gallup-Mellinger-Sachs, 1999)
Persistence of culture conducive for innovations (Ashraf-Galor-Ozak, JEEA 2010)
Range of soil quality
Emergence of geographical specific human capital =⇒ reduced mobility=⇒ ethnic fractionalization (Michalopoulos, AER 2012)
Persistent effect of ethnic fractionalization (Easterly-Levine, QJE 1997)
Ecological diversity & storable crops
Emergence & persistence of state capacity (Fenske, JEEA 2014; Mayshar-Moav-Neeman,2013)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 47 / 49
Geographical Factors Persistence Effect of Geography
Persistent Effects of Geographical Factors
Land suitable for large plantations
Inequality:
Extractive institutions (Engerman-Sokoloff, 1997)
Concentration of landownership:
Suboptimal investment in public education (Galor-Moav-Vollrath, RES 2009)
Soil quality conducive for agriculture
Specialization in unskilled-intensive goods
Reduces human capital formation & increases fertility & slows thetransition to modern growth (Galor-Mountford, RES 2008)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 48 / 49
Geographical Factors Persistence Effect of Geography
Persistent Effects of Geographical Factors
Land suitable for large plantations
Inequality:
Extractive institutions (Engerman-Sokoloff, 1997)
Concentration of landownership:
Suboptimal investment in public education (Galor-Moav-Vollrath, RES 2009)
Soil quality conducive for agriculture
Specialization in unskilled-intensive goods
Reduces human capital formation & increases fertility & slows thetransition to modern growth (Galor-Mountford, RES 2008)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 48 / 49
Geographical Factors Persistence Effect of Geography
Persistent Effects of Geographical Factors
Land suitable for large plantations
Inequality:
Extractive institutions (Engerman-Sokoloff, 1997)
Concentration of landownership:
Suboptimal investment in public education (Galor-Moav-Vollrath, RES 2009)
Soil quality conducive for agriculture
Specialization in unskilled-intensive goods
Reduces human capital formation & increases fertility & slows thetransition to modern growth (Galor-Mountford, RES 2008)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 48 / 49
Geographical Factors Persistence Effect of Geography
Persistent Effects of Geographical Factors
Land suitable for large plantations
Inequality:
Extractive institutions (Engerman-Sokoloff, 1997)
Concentration of landownership:
Suboptimal investment in public education (Galor-Moav-Vollrath, RES 2009)
Soil quality conducive for agriculture
Specialization in unskilled-intensive goods
Reduces human capital formation & increases fertility & slows thetransition to modern growth (Galor-Mountford, RES 2008)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 48 / 49
Geographical Factors Persistence Effect of Geography
Persistent Effects of Geographical Factors
Land suitable for large plantations
Inequality:
Extractive institutions (Engerman-Sokoloff, 1997)
Concentration of landownership:
Suboptimal investment in public education (Galor-Moav-Vollrath, RES 2009)
Soil quality conducive for agriculture
Specialization in unskilled-intensive goods
Reduces human capital formation & increases fertility & slows thetransition to modern growth (Galor-Mountford, RES 2008)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 48 / 49
Geographical Factors Persistence Effect of Geography
Persistent Effects of Geographical Factors
Land suitable for large plantations
Inequality:
Extractive institutions (Engerman-Sokoloff, 1997)
Concentration of landownership:
Suboptimal investment in public education (Galor-Moav-Vollrath, RES 2009)
Soil quality conducive for agriculture
Specialization in unskilled-intensive goods
Reduces human capital formation & increases fertility & slows thetransition to modern growth (Galor-Mountford, RES 2008)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 48 / 49
Geographical Factors Persistence Effect of Geography
Persistent Effects of Geographical Factors
Land suitable for large plantations
Inequality:
Extractive institutions (Engerman-Sokoloff, 1997)
Concentration of landownership:
Suboptimal investment in public education (Galor-Moav-Vollrath, RES 2009)
Soil quality conducive for agriculture
Specialization in unskilled-intensive goods
Reduces human capital formation & increases fertility & slows thetransition to modern growth (Galor-Mountford, RES 2008)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 48 / 49
Geographical Factors Persistence Effect of Geography
Persistent Effects of Geographical Factors
Land suitable for large plantations
Inequality:
Extractive institutions (Engerman-Sokoloff, 1997)
Concentration of landownership:
Suboptimal investment in public education (Galor-Moav-Vollrath, RES 2009)
Soil quality conducive for agriculture
Specialization in unskilled-intensive goods
Reduces human capital formation & increases fertility & slows thetransition to modern growth (Galor-Mountford, RES 2008)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 48 / 49
Geographical Factors Persistence Effect of Geography
Geographical Origins of Cultural Factors
Female labor force participation (Alesina-Giuliano-Nunn, QJE 2013), Hansen et al, JEG 2015)
Individualism (Dalgaard-Knudsen-Selaya, 2016)
Time Preference (Galor-Ozak, AER 2016)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 49 / 49
Geographical Factors Persistence Effect of Geography
Geographical Origins of Cultural Factors
Female labor force participation (Alesina-Giuliano-Nunn, QJE 2013), Hansen et al, JEG 2015)
Individualism (Dalgaard-Knudsen-Selaya, 2016)
Time Preference (Galor-Ozak, AER 2016)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 49 / 49
Geographical Factors Persistence Effect of Geography
Geographical Origins of Cultural Factors
Female labor force participation (Alesina-Giuliano-Nunn, QJE 2013), Hansen et al, JEG 2015)
Individualism (Dalgaard-Knudsen-Selaya, 2016)
Time Preference (Galor-Ozak, AER 2016)
Oded Galor Roots of Comparative Development 49 / 49