Rome 2007 Experimental tests on consumption, savings and pensions Rome 2007 Enrique Fatás (Lineex...
Transcript of Rome 2007 Experimental tests on consumption, savings and pensions Rome 2007 Enrique Fatás (Lineex...
Rome 2007
Experimental tests on consumption, savings and
pensions
Rome 2007
Enrique Fatás (Lineex and U. Valencia)
Juan A. Lacomba (Lineex and U. Granada)
Francisco Lagos (Lineex and U. Granada)
Ana I. Moro-Egido (Lineex and U. Granada)
Rome 2007
Motivation (1)
• Reforms of Social Security systems are now one of the main issues of most of industrialized countries' economic policy agenda.
Rome 2007
Rome 2007
A new rule incentives to prolong the working period beyond the legal
retirement age, 65.
Rome 2007
The german parliament increases the retirement age up to 67 years
Rome 2007
Motivation (1)
• Reforms of Social Security systems are now one of the main issues of most of industrialized countries' economic policy agenda.
• Why all these reforms? Two main problems:
The ageing of the population threats the viability of pay-as-you-go public pension systems.
Besides, pension systems in virtually all OECD countries in the mid-1990s made it financially unattractive to work after the age of 55.
• Reforms aiming to increase the effective retirement age have mainly focussed on the reduction of this implicit tax.
Rome 2007
Motivation (2)
• These reforms are named marginally actuarially FAIR pension
systems and: They are supposed to be neutral w.r.t the retirement decisions. Life-time Contributions = Pension Benefits.
• However, it could not be the right answer: It disappears the intergenerational redistribution. It may tend to undermine the political support for the pension
system itself.It might be no neutral and no effective.
Rome 2007
Motivation (3)Motivation (3)
• Do there exist alternative reforms to delay the retirement decisions?
LUMP-SUM pension systems
• Fetherstonhaugh and Ross (1999) using a questionnaire find that: More than 75% of the respondents preferred a one-time
bonus to an increased annuity. • In the U.S. private industry some type of lump-sum benefit has
become popular as an alternative to annuity payments. • Fatas, Lacomba and Lagos (2007) find in the lab that:
The more concentrated the payments (shifting from annuity
into lump-sum), the more postponed the retirement decisions.
- For all the pension benefits.- For a % of the pension benefits.- For extra-years worked after 65.
Rome 2007
The incorporation of a lump-sum payment as a measure to delay retirement decisions requires further analysis.
The impact on the poverty rates of the elderly.
The aim of this article is twofold:To test the potential effects of implementing a lump-sum payment in a public pension system on consumption and saving behavior.To analyze how closely the predictions of the optimality theory fit the actual behavior of subjects in a lab.
Objective
Rome 2007
Hey and Dardanoni (EJ, 1988).
Ballinger et al (EJ, 2003).
Carbone and Hey (EJ, 2004).
Brown, Camerer and Chua (2006).
---------------- o 0 o ----------------
Two novel features of our benchmark: Future income is uncertain with a decreasing probability of surviving. Two levels of income: as worker and as retired.
This is the first experimental approach to examine a dynamic saving-consumption problem in a retirement framework.
Experimental literature on consumption behavior
Rome 2007
The experiment consists of at most 30 rounds.The higher the round, the lower the probability of surviving.
Subjects receive three different levels of income according to a RETIREMENT period:
A constant level of income during each period before R.A higher lump-sum of income in R. From R on subjects receive nothing.
In each round subjects make only one decision: how much of their Cash Available to Consume/Save in that round.
Borrowing is not allowed.Savings earn no interest. Consumption generates points: Points = 10*√consumption.
Experimental Design
Rome 2007
Rounds Pobability of
surviving LS10
Endowment LS15
Endowment Cash
Available Consumption Savings
Obtained Points
1 1 85 85 85 --- --- ---
2 29/30 85 85
3 28/29 85 85
4 27/28 85 85
5 26/27 85 85
6 25/26 85 85
7 24/25 85 85
8 23/24 85 85
9 22/23 85 85
10 21/22 85 85
11 20/21 191,25 85
12 19/20 85
13 18/19 85
14 17/18 85
15 16/17 85
16 15/16 345
17 14/15
18 13/14
19 12/13
20 11/12
21 10/11
22 9/10
23 8/9
24 7/8
25 6/7
26 5/6
27 4/5
28 3/4
29 2/3
30 1/2
0,00
Rome 2007
Experiments were run at LINEEX (Dec, 2006).
2 treatments: LS10 (20 subjects) and LS15 (19 subjects).
In each treatment, subjects played three sequences.
They were paid by one of these three sequences (randomly selected).
1 h. 40 min. and €27 on average (exchange rate: 125 points = €1).
Experimental procedures
Rome 2007
Results: Consumption Decisions -- LS10
05
01
00
150
Con
sum
ption
0 5 10 15 20 25 30period
Seq=1 Seq=2Seq=3 Ex-ante Cons.
Ex-ante Cons. and Actual Cons. by Seq. (R=10)
05
01
00
150
Con
sum
ption
0 5 10 15 20 25 30period
Seq=1 Seq=2Seq=3 Ex-post Cons.
Ex-post Cons. and Actual Cons. by Seq. (R=10)
Rome 2007
Results: Consumption Decisions -- LS15
05
01
00
150
Con
sum
ption
0 5 10 15 20 25 30period
Seq=1 Seq=2Seq=3 Ex-ante Cons.
Ex-ante Cons. and Actual Cons. by Seq. (R=15)
05
01
00
150
Con
sum
ption
0 5 10 15 20 25 30period
Seq=1 Seq=2Seq=3 Ex-post Cons.
Ex-post Cons. and Actual Cons. by Seq. (R=15)
Rome 2007
Results: Saving Decisions -- LS10
05
01
00150
Sa
vin
gs
0 5 10 15 20 25 30period
Seq=1 Seq=2Seq=3 Ex-ante Savs.
Ex-ante Savs. and Actual Savs. by Seq. (R=10)
05
01
001
50
Sa
vin
gs
0 5 10 15 20 25 30period
Seq=1 Seq=2Seq=3 Ex-post Savs.
Ex-post Savs. and Actual Savs. by Seq. (R=10)
Rome 2007
Results: Saving Decisions -- LS15
05
0100150Sa
vin
gs
0 5 10 15 20 25 30period
Seq=1 Seq=2Seq=3 Ex-ante Savs.
Ex-ante Savs. and Actual Savs. by Seq. (R=15)
05
01
001
50
Sa
vin
gs
0 5 10 15 20 25 30period
Seq=1 Seq=2Seq=3 Ex-post Savs.
Ex-post Savs. and Actual Savs. by Seq. (R=15)
Rome 2007
Results: Behavioral AnalysisPOOLED BREAK=10 BREAK=15
ACTUAL CONSUMPTION EXANTE EXPOST EXANTE EXPOST EXANTE EXPOST
OPTIMAL CONSUMPTION -0.019 -0.374*** 0.225*** 0.511*** 1.072* 1.149* 0.759*** 1.623*** -0.201 -1.222*** 0.157* 0.295**
[0.121] [0.132] [0.081] [0.087] [0.571] [0.603] [0.266] [0.253] [0.169] [0.152] [0.094] [0.115]
ENDOWMENT 0.385*** 0.370*** 0.366*** 0.314*** 0.366*** 0.389***
[0.024] [0.024] [0.040] [0.044] [0.034] [0.027]
CASHAVAILABLE 0.005 0.007 -0.008 -0.018* 0.058*** 0.087***
[0.008] [0.008] [0.010] [0.010] [0.016] [0.017]
Observations 1172 1172 1172 1172 754 754 754 754 418 418 418 418
R-squared 0.41 0.28 0.41 0.29 0.31 0.23 0.31 0.26 0.53 0.41 0.53 0.33
Standard errors in brackets * significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1%
Rome 2007
Concluding remarks
If a lump-sum system is implemented, could the poverty rates as retired be increased?Our results suggest that lump-sum payments could not yield increases in the elderly poverty rates.
Participants under-consume in the earliest periods.
Subjects over-react to the lump-sum payments.
After R, participants seem to smooth their consumption decisions.
Subjects over-saved.
Comparing treatments: the earlier and the lower the lump-sum
payment, the higher the saving reaction.
Behavioral explanation: consumers seem to spend a fixed fraction of
their endowment (more than of their cash available).