Role of Risk Identification for Development and Implementation of the ICPAC Regional Strategy

L.A.OGALLO

IGAD CLIMATE AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC) www.icpac.net

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Djibouti

Ethiopia

Eritrea

Somalia

Kenya

Burundi

Rwanda

Uganda

Tanzania

Sudan

CLIMATE RISK REDUCTION FOR DEVELOPMENT : Mainstream Current and future climate risks (+ climate change) for sustainable development

CLIMATE TOOLS andAPPLICATIONSFOR DEVELOPMENT

Established by NMHSs, UNDP and WMO IN 1988

MAINSTREAM CLIMATE IN SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

STILL MOST VULNERABLE CONTINENT !!

SOCIO-ECONOMIC GROUPS IN AFRICA

IGAD

and

EAC

IGAD EXECUTIVE SECRETARY

AGRICULTURE AND ENVIRONMENT

DIVISION

ECONOMIC COOPERATION

DIVISION

POLITICAL AND HUMANITARIAN

AFFAIRS DIVISION

ICPAC EXECUTIVE

BOARD

ICPAC DIRECTOR

Reporting chain

Technical support to all Divisions

FINANCE AND

ADMINISTRATION

KEY ISSUES

• Climate risks of the region Function of (climate hazards and vulnerable/capable conditions of the society)

climate risks for sustainable reduction priorities include:• Safety of society and Investments• National / regional Defense: Peace

and Security : Conflicts• Water resources• Agriculture and Food security• Health• Energy: Hydro energy• Tourism and hotel industry• Settlement (+cites) and infrastructure• Environment issues• Sustainable economic development

Poverty Reduction

ICPAC’s and NMHSs Climate Risk reductionactivities in support of Development

• Understanding and mapping of Regional climate hazards: Past, Present and Future patterns- data problems

• Climate change Science, mitigation, Impacts, vulnerability and adaptation

• Capacity building : capacity very low• Down scaling climate products for specific

sector applications; Pilot projects WMO; NOAA, USAID,ISDR, IRI, etc

• Education and awareness: Advocacy and Policies issues; WMO, NOAA, USAID, ISDR: UNDP Climate outlook forum ; bulletins, booklets

• Gender mainstreaming• Indigenous knowledge• Partnerships

WATER RESOURCES APPLICATIONS USGS / FEWS NET

Translation of Seasonal Forecast into Potential Rainfall amounts; March –May 2007 from COF19

Given in Feb 2007

Seasonal CLIMATE OUTLOOKSOME APPLICATIONS

FOOD SECURITY OUTLOOK PRODUCTS

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WITH

FEWS/NET

Forage Available: Status (February 2007) and Forecast for May 2007

Total Forage Available (kg/ha)

    3500

    2500 to 3500

    1500 to 2500

    1000 to 1500

    600 to 1000

    300 to 600

    < 300

  Not monitored

    Wetlands

LIVESTOCK AND CONFLICTS MANAGEMENT

MALARIA

DEMONSTRATED APPLICATION OF THE CLIMATE OUTLOOK SYSTEMS

Comparison between Observed and Predicted Thiba OND Inflow anomaly between 1982 - 2001

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ThibaOND-OBS

ThibaOND-PRED

Comparison between Observed and Predicted OND Thiba Inflow anomaly into Kamburu Dam between 1982 – 2001-Kenya

THANKS TO THE MEDIA IN THE REGION

DISSEMINATION

To rural

Community

ISDR SUPPORT

KEY CHALLENGES • Observations and data management• Research: Understanding of local / regional

processes; university/ community/ policy linkages; multi disciplinary

• Climate Tools: modeling, computing, etc• Capacity building: Empowerment of

countries /communities• Information exchange / dissemination• Climate change issues: Detection, attribution,

impacts , vulnerability, mitigation, and adaptation

• Integrated disaster risk reduction strategies

• Education and awareness• Dissemination strategies: • Policies and NMHSs Influence: Cost benefit

analysis : • Coordination, Collaboration and Partnerships

with stakeholders: Kingdoms protections by sectors

• RESOURCES REQUIREMENT• Regional Plans/ Strategies: AU/ECA

ClimDev efforts• Take advantage of Large and frequent events

and improved seasonal prediction skills in some regions eg EL NIÑO