“Rogue Valley Climate Trends & Projections”League of Women Voters; March 2015

http://socan.info alanjournet@gmail.com 541-301-4107

Presentation (as ppt or pdf) on web site: click ‘http://socan.info/previous-presentations-handouts/’

Shasta Lake, Summer 2014

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/08/22/1323804/-California-drought-63-trillion-gallons-of-groundwater-lost-and-the-surface-of-the-Earth-is-rising?detail=email

CA: water calendar year ended Sept 30th - third driest year on recordhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/03/california-drought-fourth-year_n_5928818.html?ir=Green&utm_campaign=100414&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Alert-green&utm_content=Title

Oroville Lake, Summer

20112014

20112014

20112014

http://imgur.com/a/IgoUq

Fourth consecutive year of droughthttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/03/california-drought-fourth-year_n_5928818.html?ir=Green&utm_campaign=100414&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Alert-green&utm_content=Title

Hart Lake, Oregon - Historical

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hart_Lake_(Oregon)#mediaviewer/File:Northern_Hart_Lake_(Lake_County,_Oregon_scenic_images)_(lakDA0090).jpg http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warner_Lakes

Hart Lake, Oregon: Summer 2014Alan Journet

From Interstate 5 –Saturday July 27th

Wolf Creek AreaNorth of Grants Pass

Medford Mail Tribune – Glendale Fire July 29th

This could be worst fire season in 10 years

Wildfire July 26th 2013 Thunderstorms

August 7th 2013

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?OR

March 3rd 2015

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/akq/brief/longrange.php#extend

90 Temperature Outlook 90 Precipitation Outlook

THE MESSAGES

1) Climate change consequences are here and now

2) Projections are mainly continuations of current trends

For those who plan to nap through my presentation….

Historic Trends are based on DATA

The Future is Based on Projections:

Medford Average Temperature History

US National Weather Service, NOAA - Medford

2014 Ave 58.9

Rogue Basin Temperature History and Projections

1961-1990 Ave – 50.030F

Summer Ave – 63.580F Winter Ave – 38.170F

Business As Usual

1900190819161924193219401948195619641972198019881996200420122020202820362044205220602068207620842092210045

47

49

51

53

55

57

59

61

63

Rogue Basin Temperature Trend and Projections

HISTORICAL AVERAGE

CSIRO Annual Ave

HADLEY Annual Ave

MIROC Annual Ave

Years 1900 to 2100

Tem

pera

ture

⁰F

Projected Increases

2035-2045Average1.6 – 4⁰F

(51.6 – 53.8⁰F)

Winter 1 – 3.5⁰F

(39.1 – 41.7⁰F)

Summer1 – 6⁰F

(64.4 – 69.5⁰F)

August 1 – 7.5⁰F

(67.1 – 73.5⁰F)

2075-2085Average

4.3 – 8.2⁰F(54.3 – 58.2⁰F)

Winter 3.4 – 6.3⁰F

(41.5 – 44.5⁰F)

Summer5.5 – 11.8⁰F

(69.1 – 75.4⁰F)

August6.7 – 16.8⁰F

(72.7 – 82.8⁰F)

http://www.usgs.gov/climate_landuse/clu_rd/apps/nccv_viewer.asp

http://www.usgs.gov/climate_landuse/clu_rd/apps/nccv_viewer.asp

> 8.0 F⁰> 8.0 F⁰

> 4.0 F⁰

> 8.0 F⁰

> 4.0 F⁰

http://www.usgs.gov/climate_landuse/clu_rd/apps/nccv_viewer.asp

> 8.0 F⁰

> 4.0 F⁰

http://www.usgs.gov/climate_landuse/clu_rd/apps/nccv_viewer.asp

> 8.0 F⁰

> 4. 0 F⁰

US National Weather Service, NOAA - Medford

Medford 100 Degree Days HistoryEXTREMESARE ALSO

IMPORTANT

Heat Waves: Number of Days > 100oF

Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.

Historic Precipitation

Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.

National increaseof 5%

Substantial RegionalDifference

Medford Annual Precipitation - Inches Historic

US National Weather Service, NOAA - Medford

http://www.usgs.gov/climate_landuse/clu_rd/apps/nccv_viewer.asp

46

http://www.globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment

Projected Precipitati

onSeasonal Pattern –

HighEmissions Scenarios

= ‘Business As Usual’

Projected Patterns in Light,

Moderate & Heavy

Precipitation Events by 2090s

ReducedLight

DrizzleDays

IncreasedHeavy

DownpourDays

Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.

Mid-Elevation Snowfall Crater Lake 7,000 – 8,000 ft

1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

f(x) = − 20.8757407407407 x + 627.493641975309

Decade

Snow

fall

in In

ches

Approximately 25% decrease from 1930s.N. California 1950 - 2000

Below 7500’ 13% declineAbove 7500’ 12% increase

http://downloads.globalchange.gov/usimpacts/pdfs/climate-impacts-report.pdf

Declining snowpack leads toreduced water supply in our ‘natural’ reservoirs.

Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.

Red = decreasing snow waterBlue = increasing snow water

Spring Snowmelt Dates - Critical in West

Longitude

Latit

ude

Impact on streams – both peak timing and flow rate

Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.

Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.

Projected

Stream Flow

Timing in Western States

Historic Stream

Flow Timing in Western States

Projected PNW Run-off Timing

Run-off peak earlier

& lower

Late summer run-off lower

Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.

Warming & Loss of

Snowpack

2006-2035 2036-2065 2066-2095

http://globalchange.mit.edu/files/document/MITJPSPGC_Reprint_2010-14.pdf

Palmer Drought Severity Index with Projections

Green: Decreasing Drought 7 months fewer per 30 years

Yellow- Red: Increasing Drought over 60 months more per 30 yrs

– Businessas

usual

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/RegionalDroughtMonitor.aspx?west

U.S. Population affected by this drought: 52,257,282

70.05% of U.S. is D0 – D4 or above

Over 6 months

March 3rd 2015

The Short-term Future

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/sdo_summary.html

• 0.5⁰C is the difference between a high fire year

and a low fire year.(

http://news.discovery.com/earth/climate-change-yellowstone-fires.html

)

Forest studies tell us wildfire frequency is high whenannual average temperature is high and

when snowmelt arrives early.

Western Wildfires & Climate Change

Exactly the historic trends and projections discussed

Climate Change (Chaos) and the Jet Stream

http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2012/03/07/climate-change-may-be-affecting-the-jet-stream/

COLD

WARM WARM

COLD

WARM

http://www.arborday.org/media/map_change.cfm

Changing U.S Growth Cold Hardiness Zones (Arbor Day Foundation)

Climate is shifting – gardeners may adjust

but soils and biomes cannot.

The map is based on the average annual

minimum winter temperature.

Zone 8a10 – 15⁰F

A LocalExample

http://www.sou.edu/envirostudies/gjones_docs/GJones%20Climate%20Change%20Geoscience%20Canada.pdf

Historical Apr – OctAverage 1961-1990

Projected Range for2035 - 2045

Projected Range for2075 - 2085

2014

Global Temperatures 1880 – 2014cf 1951-1980

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.A2.gif

0

0.36

-0.36

0.72

-0.72

1.08

⁰F

http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5_WGI-12Doc2b_FinalDraft_Chapter12.pdf

Future Temperature Range (Beyond 2100)

3.6⁰F

7.2⁰F

10.8⁰F

14.4⁰F

18.0⁰F

21.6⁰F

Managing the Unavoidable (Adaptation)

Managing ourselves and our environment in ways that minimize the threats posed;

Preparing ourselves and natural systems to withstand climate changes that are unavoidable and which we cannot minimize.

Bierbaum, R and J. Holdren, JP, MacCracken, M, Moss RH, Raven PH. 2007 Confronting climate change: Avoiding the unmanageable and managing the unavoidable. http://www.sigmaxi.org/about/news/UNSEGonline.pdf

But this is not enough…..Avoiding the Unmanageable (Mitigation)

Reducing the release of greenhouse gases into our atmosphere.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas

B UT

30 X CO2 296 X CO2

Approximately 75% > 75%

The Problem?

• Greenhouse gases released by human activity:• Carbon dioxide, methane, oxides of nitrogen.

Rogue Valley: Use of These Fuels

Private cars/trucksPublic TransitLocal Freight

Transportation

32%En

ergy24%

Materials = Stuff44%

Energy to make stuffEnergy to transport stuff here

Fossil Fuels for energy productionEnergy used in our homes

& local businessesNatural gas for heating

Clothes, shoes, ‘phones, TVs

Our Future: Do The Math!

http://www.informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/how-many-gigatons-of-co2/

There IS Urgency!!

http://www.earth-syst-sci-data-discuss.net/7/521/2014/essdd-7-521-2014.pdf

We Have Choices! Individually & Collectively

Money inflows& outflows

Back in the Day… Now….

EnergyAccounting

GHG

CO2

CarbonAccounting

Hopium

http://socan.info

Co-Facilitators:Alan Journet alanjournet@gmail.com

Kathy Conway kathleendconway@gmail.com

MEETINGS: (Last Tuesday)Special Topic Presentation 6:00 pm – 6:30pm

General Meeting 6:30 – 7:30 pmWhat We Can Do:

Political Action Activities: http://socan.info/state-political-action/ Medford Pubic Library, 205 S. Central Ave.

• Questions?

Any comments or questions ????