Air Pollution from GroundTransportation

Roger GorhamGlobal Initiative onTransport Emissions

Paper Purpose

z Help the Secretariat work through issuesin preparation for CSD-9

z Provide background and input for strategydevelopment for GITE

z Identify significant needs for theinternational community

Themes in GITEBackground Paper

Approaches to motorization Ability to predict and track emissions Integrating environment and emissions into

investment & planning decisions Integrating local and global concerns in policy

assessment and formulation Coordination & stabilization of regulatory

environments in DCs Knowledge sharing and analytic support

Themes in GITEBackground Paper

z Approaches to motorizationz Ability to predict and track emissionsz Integration of environment/emissions

considerations into investment/planningdecisions

z Integrating local and global concerns intoassessment and policy

z Coordination/stabilization of regulatoryenvironments in DCs

z Knowledge sharing and analytic support

Common AssumptionsAbout Motorization

z Mobility generates economic development

z Car Use = Car Ownership

z Pricing: not a viable or realistic policyoption to address motorization in DCs

z Adoption of motor vehicle technology inDCs: purely a question of affordability

Mobility

z Mobility is a derived demandz Accessibility to goods, services, activity

participation, and social interactionz 4 kinds of accessibility

y Mobility y Virtualityy Proximity y Nodality

z Accessibility key to economic development

Common AssumptionsAbout Motorization

z Mobility generates economic development

z Car Use = Car Ownership

z Pricing: not a viable or realistic policyoption to address motorization in DCs

z Adoption of motor vehicle technology inDCs: purely a question of affordability

Car Use and CarOwnership

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000

P e r Capita GDP, 1990 USD Conve rte d at Purc h a s ing P o w e r P a rity

Ca rs / 1000 pe o ple

U.S.

J apan

France

W. Germany

Italy

G.Britain/UK

Sweden

Denmark

A ustralia

Netherlands

Canada

Trends in Car Ownership in DevelopedCountries by Income

Car Use and CarOwnership

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 22000 24000

P e r Capita GDP, 1990 USD Conve rte d at Purc h a s ing P o w e r P a rity

Ve hic le Km (c a rs and house hold light truc ks)/ Capita

U.S.

Japan

W. Germany

G.Britain/UK

Sweden

Denmark

A ustralia

Netherlands

Canada

Trends in Car Use in DevelopedCountries by Income

Common AssumptionsAbout Motorization

z Mobility generates economic development

z Car Use = Car Ownership

z Pricing: not a viable or realistic policyoption to address motorization in DCs

z Adoption of motor vehicle technology inDCs: purely a question of affordability

Pricing: Variable v. Fixedz Fixed costs are one-time or time-dependent

(recurring) costsy e.g. cost of vehicle, taxes, insurance, vehicle storage

z Variable costs are use-related costsy e.g. fuel, wear-and-tear, parking charges

z Lifetime costs are sum of the abovez Variabilizing costs means shifting proportion of

lifetime costs from fixed to variablez Fixed costs Average price logic

Variable costs Marginal price logic

Common AssumptionsAbout Motorization

z Mobility generates economic development

z Car Use = Car Ownership

z Pricing: not a viable or realistic policyoption to address motorization in DCs

z Adoption of motor vehicle technology inDCs: purely a question of affordability

Motor Vehicle Technology

z Technology strategies for industrializedcountries may not be appropriate for DCs

z Technologies which are unmarketable inindustrialized countries may be well suitedto DCs

z Relatively low purchasing power of DCmarkets hinders private-sector innovationfor these markets

Themes in GITEBackground Paper

z Approaches to motorizationz Ability to predict and track emissionsz Integration of environment/emissions

considerations into investment/planningdecisions

z Integrating local and global concerns intoassessment and policy

z Coordination/stabilization of regulatoryenvironments in DCs

z Knowledge sharing and analytic support

Tracking / PredictingEmissions

z Specific data needsy Vehicle fleet and usage by vehicle type and

purposey Emissions factors for different pollutants, by

vehicle type

z Predict travel, by mode and purposez Technical capacity & resources in DCs are

limited

Themes in GITEBackground Paper

z Approaches to motorizationz Ability to predict and track emissionsz Integration of environment/emissions

considerations into investment/planningdecisions

z Integrating local and global concerns intoassessment and policy

z Coordination/stabilization of regulatoryenvironments in DCs

z Knowledge sharing and analytic support

Integrating Environmentinto Planning Process

z Historically, environmental concernsy not taken into account at all; ory used to define mitigation options

z Growing recognition that environmentneeds to be an integral part of theplanning process

z Recognition of environmental andeconomic value of choice as element oftransport system

Measures to IntegrateEnvironment

z Subordinate infrastructure investment tolong-term growth and development needs

z Analyze long-run costs and benefits ofdifferent scenarios for infrastructuredeployment to meet needs

z Take into account the effects of inducedtravel, cumulative effects of facilitydevelopment, and land-use changesresulting from infrastructure development

Themes in GITEBackground Paper

z Approaches to motorizationz Ability to predict and track emissionsz Integration of environment/emissions

considerations into investment/planningdecisions

z Integrating local and global concerns intoassessment and policy

z Coordination/stabilization of regulatoryenvironments in DCs

z Knowledge sharing and analytic support

Integrating Global andLocal

z Behavioral strategies get at both withouttradeoff

z Question under Kyoto mechanisms: howis CO2 allocated? What is the baseline?

z Ability of transport sector to compete withother sectors for GHG funds

z Critical to viability of CDM

Themes in GITEBackground Paper

z Approaches to motorizationz Ability to predict and track emissionsz Integration of environment/emissions

considerations into investment/planningdecisions

z Integrating local and global concerns intoassessment and policy

z Coordination/stabilization of regulatoryenvironments in DCs

z Knowledge sharing and analytic support

Stabilizing RegulatoryEnvironments

z Participation of the private sector is critical tolong-term, sustainable changes in transportsector

z Private sector role in vehicle manufacturing,importing, operations, fuel refining, landdevelopment

z Private sector cravesy Predictabilityy Scalability

Themes in GITEBackground Paper

z Approaches to motorizationz Ability to predict and track emissionsz Integration of environment/emissions

considerations into investment/planningdecisions

z Integrating local and global concerns intoassessment and policy

z Coordination/stabilization of regulatoryenvironments in DCs

z Knowledge sharing and analytic support

Sharing Knowledge

z Information generated, lessons learned,best practices from on-the-groundexperience

z Sources of financey Capacity-building for integrated assessment

z Policy approachesy Strategic -- well disseminatedy Tactical -- not well disseminated

Policy approaches

z Strategicy Technicaly Systemicy Behavioral

z Tacticaly Whom can be influenced, and howy Opportunistic interventions

Tactical Approaches:Target Groups

z Fuel consumersz Vehicle usersz Vehicle operatorsz Travelers and

shippersz Vehicle purchasersz Vehicle

manufacturers andimporters

z Vehicle owners andfleet managers

z Fuel refiners,importers, andretailers

z Developers andplanners

z Households and firmsz Public attitudes and

opinions

Critical Needs forInternational Community

Strategies for motorization Development of innovative strategies to address

motorization Better identification and targeting of technological

solutions for developing country contexts

Institutional development for data Harmonization of transport data tracking and

reporting Must encompass both emissions and activity,

inventories and projections

Critical Needs forInternational Community

Capacity-building for integration of local andglobal concerns in policy assessment andformulation Methods to assess ancillary costs and benefits and

allocate CO2 credits Assisting DCs access climate financing for transport

projects

Critical Needs forInternational Community

Preventing fragmentation of markets indevelopment of emissions and fuel qualitystandards and regulations

Knowledge sharing and analytic support Concerted and consistent support to eliminate the

use of lead as a fuel additive by 2010, consistent withthe Cairo Declaration

Dissemination of best tactics, as well as beststrategies

Emphasis on accessibility and choice in transportationpolicy