Roderick K. Randall Senior Managing Director Vesbridge Partners, LLC
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Page 1 Roderick K. Randall Senior Managing Director Vesbridge Partners, LLC The Future Of Network Intelligence February 23, 2005 21st Century Communications World Forum
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21st Century Communications World Forum. The Future Of Network Intelligence February 23, 2005. Roderick K. Randall Senior Managing Director Vesbridge Partners, LLC. IP Is The 1 st Global Language. IP Is The 1 st Global Language. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Roderick K. Randall Senior Managing Director Vesbridge Partners, LLC
Page 1
Roderick K. RandallSenior Managing Director
Vesbridge Partners, LLC
The Future Of Network Intelligence
February 23, 2005
21st Century Communications World Forum
IP Is The 1st Global Language
IP Is The 1st Global Language
The Global Economy is NetworkedAll Economic Activity Adds Traffic
TelecomTelecomTelecomTelecomTelecom
The Global Economy is NetworkedAll Economic Activity Adds Traffic
But, Who Is Going To Profit?
Don’t Get Skyped!
Message to Telcos…
The Stupid Network is a Stupid Idea
• Stupid Networks lead to stupid and unsustainable Business Models
• Stupid Networks would ultimately only have price/bit as differentiation…
• Leading to rapid commoditization…
• Which drives profitability out of all competitors…
• Which makes the business un attractive…
• Which makes it un-finance-able…
• Which makes it un-staff-able with top talent
• Which leads to collapse
Dimensions Of Network Intelligence
Signaling and Control Control
ManagementPSTN
ContentContent• Voice Messaging
• Multimedia messaging• Network Based Security• Parental Control• Spam Filtering• Intelligent Storage Management/ILM
• AIN Services•800/900, Caller ID/Name•Voice Mail, IVR
• Mobility• SMS• SIP• Martini
• DNHR• Self Healing Networks• Flow Through Provisioning• MPLS
Management
IP Enhanced3-D Intelligence
The Future Of Network Intelligence
Defensive
Prevention of Unnecessary profit erosion
Protection from Abusive Offenders
Offensive
Creation and Enablement of new Network Services based revenue streams
Provide for participation in the benefits as well as providing service in the IP Economic Value Chain
Network Services Have Varying Value“Not all bits are created equal”
$5.00
$15.00
$625.00
WebBrowsing
MMS40c per
message
SMS10c per
message
$ /
MB
yte
for
traf
fic
GamingVoicePer
minute
Video
Clip$1.50 perclip
E-Mail10c perE-mail
MP3$1 persong
$10.00
$1.00$0.75$0.20
Flat rate over prices service
Reduces demand
Flat rate over prices service
Reduces demand
Flat rate under values
Unrealized revenue
Flat rate under values
Unrealized revenue
Flat Rate Charging
Pre
ssu
re t
o r
edu
ce
Dri
ves
co
mm
od
itiz
atio
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Pre
ssu
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edu
ce
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DifferentialCharging
Network Napster Threat
Current Network Deployments Are Vulnerable
IP/ATM SGSNSGSN GGSNGGSNManagedIP
SGSNSGSN
SGSNSGSN
GPRS
SMS/MMS Bypass Leaks Revenue and Profits
BSC
MSC
SS7SMSCHLR VLR
IP/ATMBSC GGSNGGSNManagedIP
SGSNSGSNGPRSRAN
WAPGW
MMSC
RingTones
Games etc.
Re-Charge
RAN
Mobile
SGSNSGSN
SGSNSGSN
AAA
Intranet
Internet
Java• MM IM• Email
• MMS
2.5G
2G• SMS
To MSC
MSC
$625/MBytePre-Paid
$40/MByte
• What would happen if this traffic were to shift to the lower priced GPRS bearer Service?
• The mobile operator would receive less revenue for the same traffic load
Network Applications
IP/ATM SGSNSGSN GGSNGGSNManagedIP
SGSNSGSN
SGSNSGSN
GPRS
Network Napster Threat:App Downloads That Enable Bypass
BSC
MSC
SS7SMSCHLR VLR
IP/ATMBSC GGSNGGSNManagedIP
SGSNSGSNGPRSRAN
WAPGW
MMSC
RingTones
Games etc.
Re-Charge
RAN
Mobile
SGSNSGSN
SGSNSGSN
AAA
Intranet
Internet
Java• MM IM• Email
• MMS
2.5G
2G• SMS
To MSC
Advertiser $$$
MSC
$625/MByte
$1-3/MByte
Pre-Paid
$40/MByte
• $625/MByte $1-3/MByte• $30B/year $50M/yr
$625/MByte
$40/MByte
$625/MByte
$40/MByte Network Applications
Network Applications
IP/ATM SGSNSGSN GGSNGGSNManagedIP
SGSNSGSN
SGSNSGSN
GPRS
Session Intelligence Based Scenario
BSC
IP/ATMBSC GGSNGGSNManagedIP
SGSNSGSNGPRSRAN
WAPGW
MMSC
RingTones
Games etc.
Re-Charge
RAN
Mobile
SGSNSGSN
SGSNSGSN
AAA
Intranet
Advertiser $$$
Internet
Java• UMTS• CDMA2000
• GPRS• TDMA
2.5G
2G• SMS
To MSC
SA
DA
HI Layer 3 Payload
DA
Layer 4 PayloadHI
Layer 5 PayloadHI
Layer 6 PayloadHI
Layer 7 PayloadHI
ApplicationHI
SA
DA
HI Layer 3 Payload
DA
Layer 4 PayloadHI
Layer 5 PayloadHI
Layer 6 PayloadHI
Layer 7 PayloadHI
ApplicationHI
SA
DA
HI Layer 3 PayloadSA
DA
HI Layer 3 Payload
DA
Layer 4 PayloadHIDA
Layer 4 PayloadHI
Layer 5 PayloadHI Layer 5 PayloadHI
Layer 6 PayloadHI Layer 6 PayloadHI
Layer 7 PayloadHI Layer 7 PayloadHI
ApplicationHI AppHI
ProQuent Deep Packet ProcessingTM
Billing Mediation
Pre-Paid
PostPaidRating
• 10 cents for mobile short messages, while allowing pictures at 40 cents, songs at $1, and emails at $1 per MByte (min $20)
$40/MByte
$.10/Msg
What if…
• You could associate traffic with services?
• You could package Network with Applications and/or Content?
• You could advantage traffic which is packaged with premium network services from your own Retail service offerings…
• Or those from other providers with which you have a paid revenue sharing arrangement?
• By not specifically advantaging non recognized or non-compensated traffic, this traffic could be truly given “best effort” service, but only in the sliver of the network set aside for “Cargo Class”…
• And they could not just automatically upgrade to First Class just because no one is currently in the seats?
What Are Some Network Intelligence Based Opportunities?
A Few Ideas…
VoIPoEverything
• VoIP Over Broadband
• VoIP Over WiFi
• VoIP Over Cordless
• VoIP Over Cellular
• PTT Over VoIP Over Cellular, WiFi, and Desktops
• VoIP Over WiFi Overseas on Airplanes
• Cellular/WiFi Convergence, or at least co-habitation
• VoIP Over Open Source
Moogle
• Google Gone Mobile
• Search has now been proven to be Extremely Valuable
• Mobility is Extremely Valuable
• Think 411 Information on Steroids
Already a $9 Billion/yr Business at $1/Querry + $1/Min
• Scenario:
Push-To-Talk Zero delay natural language request
Speech Recognition reception
Back-end search Google style (or MSN or Alta Vista or whatever)
Graphical Scrolling delivery Multi-Modal style using Mega Pixel display Content Optimized for Mobile broadband
Hyper-linkable connections to call, browse, or buy
Network Based Security
• Consumers Spend hours per month dealing with Security related issues on their computing devices Viruses
Worms
Spam
Pop-Ups
Spyware
Phishing/Identity Theft
• A Network with Suitable Intelligence can block malicious or curb abusive traffic on inbound and outbound paths
• Network Providers have an opportunity to provide this service on behalf of subscribers for a fee
• This is a Huge potential business and Mobile is next
Gear Shifting Networks
Gear Shifting Networks
• Some Users will pay more occasionally for more speed, or throughput, or less latency, or other QoS/ToS attributes
• Some Destinations will pay to “Up Speed” a visiting user in a 1-800 number model to provide the appropriate network quality for the duration of this session
• Need Broadband Capable Access even though a particular user may subscribe to a narrowband service; like HDTV is offered on Cable, though a user may not have paid to get it
• Scenario:
User buys cheap narrowband service on a BB capable access
He pays $2 per session to “NOS” the connection to BB
He visits “www.DreamVacations.com” who pays the fee to Up Speed his connection for a visceral experience leading to a sale
He may decide to upgrade to BB later, online
Fiber To The Node + Wireless Across the Lawn
• Optical Ethernet and PON as base level service
• Wireless delivery from street to Subscribers
• Not just a bandwidth play
• IP based Entertainment from MP3 to HDTV
• Packaged Offerings with a variety of bundled services with a variety of price points
Prediction
• The Fall Of The Stupid Network
• The Rise of A New Cycle of Telecom Economic Opportunity
Thank You!
www.vesbridge.com
