Rock & Roll versus The Oil Patch What can the decline of great music teach us about
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Transcript of Rock & Roll versus The Oil Patch What can the decline of great music teach us about
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Rock & Rollversus
The Oil Patch
What can the decline of great music teach us about
the future of energy?
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What is oil?
A little history.
How much do we use? How much is there?
Crystal ball
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PetroleumPetroleumOriginOrigin
PetroleumPetroleumOriginOrigin
Tiny critters and algae (zooplankton and plankton) in oceans die, settle to seafloor and get eaten up.
•If everything is JUST RIGHT this stuff gets preserved and converted to oil and
trapped: GOM and Niger Delta 5-35 million years ago Seas that covered North America 150 million yrs ago Alaska’s north slope 250 million years ago
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Source RockPreserved plankton “cooked” just right
Reservoir rock
Seal rock
Petroleum OriginPetroleum OriginPetroleum OriginPetroleum Origin
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Oil and gas “migrate” up.
Most spills out at surface.
A small % gets “trapped”.
Oil and gas “migrate” up slowly through
porous rock
Oil seep
Petroleum Petroleum OriginOrigin
Petroleum Petroleum OriginOrigin
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Oil HistoryOil History
Birth of the US oil industry
1859
“Drake’s Folly”
• Titusville, Pennsylvania
• 70 foot well
• 20 bbls/day
Created an overnight oil boom
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Oil HistoryOil History
Jan 10, 1901 – “Big Oil”
One well100,000 bbls/day - Tripled US production
The “Lucas Gusher” at Spindletop – Nine days and 800,000 bbls later,
it was under control.
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By 1903, more than 400 wells had been drilled on the dome.
…optimum rig spacing ???.
Oil HistoryOil History
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US - early production bbls per year:
1859: 2 thousand1869: 4 million1879: 20 million1889: 35 million1899: 50 million1906: 130 million
Oil HistoryOil History
Internal Combustion Engine
Spindletop
Civil WarRockefeller/Std Oil OH
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Today
Our thirst for conventional oil:
US consumption 20,000,000 bbl/dayGlobal consumption 86,000,000 bbl/dayGlobal (all energy) 226,000,000 BOEPD
Annual global oil consumption >30,000,000,000 bbl/yearThat’s 42,000 gallons per second
Oil HistoryOil History
An issue of SCALE
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How do we produce our energy?How do we produce our energy?How do we produce our energy?How do we produce our energy?
World Energy Supply87% fossil fuels
23%
23%
39%
3%
8%
US Energy Consumption
>3%
EIA, 2009
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How do we produce energy?How do we produce energy?
Hydro35%
WoodDerived
Biofuels
Wind
Solar/PVE 1%Geothermal
Waste
Data-EIA, 2009
Coal 21%
Nuclear 9%
Petroleum 37%
NaturalGas25%
USRenewable
Energy
Total Consumption
8%
8%
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TransportationTransportation
Conventional Oil
Natural Gas
Data from EIA 2007Data from EIA 2007
Biom
assCoal
Hydro
Uranium
HeatHeat
ElectricityElectricity
S. Tinker, Univ. Texas Austin Bur. Econ. Geol., AAPG, April 2008
What do we use it for?Energy ResourcesEnergy ResourcesEnergy ResourcesEnergy Resources
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Th, Fri: Campus Sustainability
• Assignment:– 3 multiple choice questions
• With correct answer indicated, • With 1-2 sentence discussion/explanation of
correct answer
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In the news
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Presentation ScheduleNov 30th-Dec 3rd
• 7 minutes per total: 5 min talk + 2 min questions
• Practice! Practice! Practice!
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Paper Due- Nov 30th
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CONVENTIONAL OIL
“Geological Endowment” 3 Trillion Barrels* (*but we can’t get this all out)
We’ve used 1.1 Trillion barrels
Remaining reserves 1.3 Trillion barrels
~35 year supply (at current consumption rates)
Hydrocarbon ResourcesHydrocarbon ResourcesHydrocarbon ResourcesHydrocarbon Resources
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…problem - 25 Years from now:
Globally by 2035
Energy consumption up 49%
CO2 emissions up 43%
Oil price up 100%
($133/bbl)
According to US Energy Information Agency (EIA)
May 25, 2010
Into the future…Into the future…Into the future…Into the future…
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Supply and DemandSupply and Demand
… when ½ of recoverable oilhas been producedand demand outstripssupply
““PEAK OIL”PEAK OIL”
Hubbert’s PeakM. King Hubbert1956
What will fill
this gap?Production Decline
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Rolling Stone Magazine
Top 500 Songs of All Time
Like a Rolling Stone Bob Dylan 1965
Satisfaction Rolling Stones 1965
Imagine John Lennon 1971
What's Going On Marvin Gaye 1971
RespectAretha Franklin
1965
Good VibrationsThe Beach Boys
1966
Johnny B. Goode Chuck Berry 1958
Hey Jude The Beatles 1968
Smells Like Teen Spirit Nirvana 1991
What'd I Say Ray Charles 1959
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Supply and DemandSupply and Demand
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Rock & Roll versus OilRock & Roll versus Oil
Music Q
ualityDemand fo
r good m
usic
Have we exhausted allof the good
music?What fillsthe Gap?
“Peak Rock”
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Alternative MusicAlternative Music
Shoegazing
Punk
Post punk
Grunge
Gothic Rock
Brit Pop
Indie
Hip Hop
Rap
Electronica
Rave
Acid Jazz
Jam
Straightedge
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What will fill the gap?What will fill the gap?
According to the EIA (2010)
Biofuels will account for most growth in liquid
fuel consumption in the United States over
the next 25 years.
BUT – Fossil fuel consumption will
continue at near-current levels.
What about projected HC production
declines?
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Energy ResourcesEnergy Resources
“Unconventional Hydrocarbons” There is a LOT of it!
• Natural gas• Deep Gas (+15,000’) – now conventional• Tight Gas - adds 17% to US gas resource• Shale Gas – adds 25% • Coalbed Methane – adds 8% • Methane Hydrate – 2 to 20 times global NG supply
• Unconventional (heavy) oil• Shale Oil – 3 Trillion Barrels• Tar Sands – 3.5 Trillion Barrels
The world has more hydrocarbons than we are likely to ever use.
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Energy ResourcesEnergy Resources OIL INDUSTRY CONVERSIONS
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Energy ResourcesEnergy Resources
COAL
World reserves about 1000 BMT (billion metric tons)
Relatively evenly distributed throughout the world
U.S. reserves: 25% of the world reserves
Annual global consumption 5 BMT
(meaning the world has 200 years @ current production)
China, U.S., and Russia account for 50% of total CO2 released
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Energy ResourcesEnergy Resources
EIA Annual Energy Outlook, 2010
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Things to Ponder…Things to Ponder…
The age of oil will not end for lack of hydrocarbon resources.
Technology will take us in new directions.
Need radical shift away from:• internal combustion engine • pulverized coal-fired power plants
But, must be done as technology allows.Rushing will cost dearly.
Invest heavily – BUT CAREFULLY – in renewable energy alternatives.
The challenge: SCALE of consumption
and of technology.
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In the news
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Presentation Schedule- everyone sign up!
Bring your talk on a jump drive BEFORE class time, so I can load it up
Every day of the talks: each student (that is not presenting) will prepare 1 multiple choice question
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Graduate School Opportunity
Idaho State University-
Looking for Masters student
Alamo Bolide Impact (Nevada), and impact on Devonian life
Contact me
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Undergraduate Research Opportunities
Science Honors Research ProgramPaid summer research
www.cwu.edu/~cots/scihonors
See any Geology Faculty
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Presentation Tips- preparation:Don’t wait to the last minute to prepare your talk
When you prepare your talk, focus on what you want people to be thinking about when they leave
You only have 7 min total- every slide counts!
Minimize the amount of text on your slides
Check for consistency in the appearance of your slides- color, font, etc.
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Presentation Tips- preparation cont’:
From: “Scientifically Speaking- available on class website
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Presentation Tips- preparation cont’:
You only have 7 min total- every slide counts!
Minimize words
Be considerate of others, make sure your talk will fit in the alloted time
Practice, practice, practice
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Presentation Tips: The delivery
Talk to the audience, not the board
Give a roadmap of your talk at the beginning
Do not read your presentation verbatim
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More Presentation Tips
http://www.projectionnet.com/styleguide/PresentationStyleGuide.aspx
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Energy ResourcesEnergy Resources
EIA Annual Energy Outlook, 2010
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Things to Ponder…Things to Ponder…
The age of oil will not end for lack of hydrocarbon resources.
Technology will take us in new directions.
Need radical shift away from:• internal combustion engine • pulverized coal-fired power plants
But, must be done as technology allows.Rushing will cost dearly.
Invest heavily – BUT CAREFULLY – in renewable energy alternatives.
The challenge: SCALE of consumption
and of technology.
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Alternative Replacements for 1 CMO
1 CMO* - what the world consumes in one year
3 CMO – total world annual energy consumption
Source*#/year for
50 years
Total Cost Mi2
Required
Output
per
Large Hydro
4 200 6 488,200 1 – 20 GW(3 over 10 GW)
Nukes 52 2,600 13 4,000 1000 MW(1GW)
Coal Plants 104 5,200 3.4 4,000 500 MW
Wind
Turbines32,000 1.6
Million3.3 105,663 1.5 – 2.0
MW
PV
Cells
90,000,000
4.5 Billion
68 24,662 150 watt
1kw/day
Some perspective (a matter of scale)
Data from: Crane, Hewitt; Edwin Kinderman and Ripudaman Malhotra (June 2010). A Cubic Mile of Oil. Oxford University Press
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Energy ResourcesEnergy Resources
OECD - The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development - an international economic organization of 33 countries founded in 1961 to stimulate economic progress and world trade. It defines itself as a forum of countries committed to democracy and the market economy, providing a setting to compare policy experiences, seeking answers to common problems, identifying good practices, and co-ordinating domestic and international policies of its members.
Australia Austria Belgium Canada Chile Czec Republic Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland Israel Italy Japan South Korea Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States
EIA - the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. DoE. US premier source of energy info. EIA collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment. EIA is the and, by law, its data, analyses, and forecasts areindependent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government.
NPC – National Petroleum Council. Established 1946 at request of Truman. Now part of DoE and is a Federal Advisory Commitee