Service robots – business perspectives Asociación Española de Robótica y Automatización de las Tecnologías de la Producción (AER-ATP)

Claus Risager, Head of Centre, Ph.D.

Danish Technological Institute, Centre for Robot Technology

Forskerparken 10, DK-5230 Odense M, +45 72 20 39 85

cr@dti.dk, www.dti.dk/robot

Robotics and Our Future a foresight

Robotic systems are going to be

everywhere in our lives

Robotics is a top 5 growth factor of this century

Robotic systems will be the basis for our welfare and well being - 2010’s, AGVs, networked - 2020’s, manipulation, AI - 2030’s, artificial life (non-biol.) - 2040’s, rise of the Cyborgs

Robotics is a major business segment!

DTI, Danish Technological Institute Centre for Robot Technology

Established in 1906 ~1.000 employees in multiple domains Protector – HM Queen Margrethe II

Main supplier of specialist knowledge in DK Consultancy, development, training, testing,

implementing and supporting our clients 10.000+ clients annually

~50 robot experts in DK in Odense Robotic-innovation that changes your world!

End-users are at the Center of our work! 15-16.000 users per year 1.100 m2 labs (new in 2010)

Health Care & Welfare

- key segment for our mission CareLab® / CareNet® bundle our services!

Danish Technological Institute (DTI) Locations

Polen

Hirtshals

Aarhus

Kolding Odense

Taastrup

Göteborg

Karlskrona

Warszawa

Jyllinge Roskilde

Trend #1: The double-demographic challenge

More elderly, more chronic sick Fewer in the work force Service level expectations increase Globalisation, low productivity and

minimal growth

Increased pressure on national budgets

Either cut-downs or lower quality The money has to last longer!

From agriculture, over industry

to service-/knowledge society

Nominal GDP sector composition, 2010 (in %)

Source: The World Bank

Trend #1: The double-demographic challenge

A global and natural phenomenon

A major course for economic and

welfare stagnation!

Nominal GDP sector composition, 2010 (in %)

Country Nominal

GDP Agriculture Industry Services

World 62,909,274 5.7% 30.7% 63.6%

European Union 16,282,230 1.8% 25% 73.2%

United States 14,657,800 1.2% 22.2% 76.7%

China 5,878,257 9.6% 46.8% 43.6%

Japan 5,458,872 1.1% 23% 75.9%

Source: Wikipedia

Trend #1: The double-demographic challenge

Manual-physical low technological (attrition functions)

Knowledge based processes/tasks

Source: The World Bank

Trend #1: The double-demographic challenge

Manual-physical low technological (attrition functions)

Knowledge based processes/tasks

Source: The World Bank

Trend #1: The double-demographic challenge

Service activities *must* be automated and made productive

Otherwise ”kills” wealth / welfare

Manual physical Robot solutions

Knowledge based ICT solutions

Trend #2: Digital revolution / exponential computational growth

1. Networks and Computers

2. Artificial Intelligence

and Robotics

3. Nano technology

4. Bio technology and Bio informatics

5. Medicine and Neurosciences

6. Energy and Environmental systems

Source: Law of accelerating returns

Trend #2: Digital revolution / exponential computational growth

Trend #2: Digital revolution / exponential computational growth

1990 Cell phone subscribers: 12.4 million

(0.25% of world population in 1990) Internet users: 2.8 million

(0.05% of world population in 1990)

2010 Cell phone subscribers: 4 billion

(67% of world population in 2010) Internet users: 1.8 billion

(26.6% of world population in 2010)

Source: Wikipedia

“it took ninety years to achieve the first MIPS (million instructions per second) per 1.000 USD, now we add one MIPS per 1.000 USD every day” Source: law of accelerating returns

Trend #2: Digital revolution / exponential computational growth

Can the exponential growth continue?

“One cubic inch of nanotube circuitry would be a million times more powerful than the human brain”

“There are more than enough new computing technologies now being researched, including three-dimensional silicon chips, optical computing, crystalline computing, DNA computing, and quantum computing, to keep the law of accelerating returns as applied to computation going for a long time”

Source: law of accelerating returns

Where does the progression of computational power then bring us? We achieve one Human Brain capability (2*1016 cps) for $1.000 around the year 2023 We achieve one Human Brain capability (2*1016 cps) for $0,01 around the year 2037 We achieve one Human Race capability (2*1026 cps) for $1.000 around the year 2049 We achieve one Human Race capability (2*1026 cps) for $0,01 around the year 2059

Trend #2: Digital revolution / exponential computational growth

Bill Gates, ”A robot in every home”,

Scientific American, 2006 http://www.cs.virginia.edu/~robins/A_Robot_in_Every_Home.pdf

”The leader of the PC revolution predicts that the next hot field will be robotics”

”In the 21st century the industry of personal robots will have greater impact on economic growth and social change than the automobile industry had in the 20th century”

Source: UN, Economic Chamber, prediction on 2020 importance of robotics

Trend #2: Digital revolution / exponential computational growth

“A robot in every home”, Bill Gates, Scientific American, 2006

Global robot boom can lead to a Klondike society in Denmark -

Robot technology will have as great impact on the world economy

as the car industry had in the 20th century Mandag Morgen, 15. oktober, 2007

The service robot market

grows 5-700% in 4 years

(expected turnover

2,8 billion US$), World Robotics The market for robots for

handicap assistance is

expected to double in the

next 4 years, World Robotics

Sales of domestic robots

(vacuum cleaning, lawn-

mowing, window cleaning and

other types) in the next 4

years could reach some 1.34

million units. World Robotics

7% of all vacuum

cleaner sales are now

robots iRobot, 2008

Trend #2: Digital revolution / exponential computational growth

Double demographic challenge

+

Digital revolution and exponential computational growth

A strong need from society and individuals

as well as mature technologies and that should lead to an explosion in the market

So far

Genefke Scale© The 5 categories

Need for new development /

Gap in knowledge, competences

1 2

3 4

5

Complexity

Genefke Scale© Category 1, Simple Standard Solutions

Off the shelf solutions

Handling robots

No process

Singular robots

No external axis

Number of references: Many

1 2 3 4 5

Genefke Scale© Category 2, Adapted Standard Solutions

Off the shelf with adaptation to the specific task

Process-robots

When multiple robots then no overlapping work zones

No or few external axis

Number of references: Some

1 2 3 4 5

Genefke Scale© Category 3, Special Solutions

Solutions that require build up of new knowledge through practical pre-projects that aims at creating “break through demonstration” of critical elements

Process is part of the solution

Simple sensor input

Multiple robots with overlapping work zones

Cooperating robots, “standard controller”

External axes

Number of references: No identical, but partial ones might exist in other solutions

1 2 3 4 5

Genefke Scale© Category 4, Innovation

Solutions being so complex that integrators need to team up with specialised centres to be able to carry out the pre-project demonstrations.

Typically funded by EC or other funding bodies

Complicated process is integrated in the solution

Input from several sensors simultaneously in not fully structured environments

Cooperating robots, off-line programmed

External axes

Number of references: No identical, but partial ones might exists in other solutions

1 2 3 4 5

Genefke Scale© Category 5, Research

Basic understanding and technological development with a long term interest for the industry

Solutions that are unlike ones seen before

Cooperating robots, real-time programmed

Mobile servicerobots in open environments

New types of sensors

Number of references: None!

1 2 3 4 5

Genefke Scale© Robot integrators – Danish Technological Institute – Research Institutes

Behov for nyudvikling /

Gab i viden

1 2

3 4

5

Kompleksitet

Robot integrators Universities

Danish Technological Institute (a.o.)

Genefke Scale© Multiple dimensions, assessments of gap/challenges/opportunities

Multiple-dimensions Green is own competences Blue is suppliers’/integrators’ Yellow is “competence-gap”

Yellow is ”the risk”, but also the space for learning, development and new competences – where enterprises can ”distance and differentiate” from competitors

Risk management: the “yellow-space” should not be over 1, preferably ½

0

1

2

3

4

5

1. Anlæg

2. Projekt org.

3. Drift org.

4. Kendskab tilProcessen

5. Materialernesegnethed

6. Emnets egnethed

7.Procesprogrammering

8. Hardware

9. Software

10. Brugerflade

11. Sensorsystemer

12. Procesudstyr

Genefke Scale© Strategic focus on 2½ - 3 is existentially vital!

Are you thinking?: ”I will not risk too much, I don’t want “yellow-space” in projects, I stick to category 1-2”

Then you must be aware that!: ”this knowledge/technology is global, you walk in the footsteps of others, you can’t get in front of them, your production will never be competitive”

Logical conclusion: Strategic focus on cat. 2½ - 3, and - rest of the production moves sooner or later

Solutions over category 2½ can’t outsourced

without internal knowledge transfer

E.g. China today has the world’s largest growth in import and use of industrial robots

Genefke Scale© Production’s importance for growth and wealth

Production ATTRACTS knowledge-based jobs electric, building, technique, machine, engineer, design, development… and create skilled supplies thus creates knowledge-intensive jobs!

There we MUST develop and have growth in our production

For the companies and for our societies welfare and wealth overall! it is fundamentally a matter of survival!

In practice Georgia/USA and automobile industry! China and wind mills!

Genefke Scale© A summarised recipe / recommendation

1. Analyse production and sort into categories

2. Cat. 1+2: Raise to 2½+, automate NOW, or outsource!

3. Cat. 2½+3: Careful select strategic partners Take care the project is not “lowered” to cat. 1½ - 2! Be ready with project model, organisation, …

4. Cat. 3½+4½: Choose innovation partners with care Match own needs with technological development (2-5 year) Roadmap for match (needs/technology match over time) Design and build own intern learning-based organisation Initiate (largest effect – best match) projects

5. If too many 3½+4½ or too large part of the production then outsource the least critical and most generic processes

Genefke Scale© … in other words

We MUST have growth in the production - and it IS possible! - and we can achieve world-class level

Recipe: knowledge based, advanced technology automation as a strategic tool to distance from the competitors and differentiate in the market

Strategic automation Effect on customer-/buy-parameters Knowledge-/Competence build up Decided, planned/prioritised, prepared

Advanced technology

Cognitive robot technologies Knowledge based cat. 2½ - 3 Digitalised knowledge and knowledge-processes

Welfare-/Service industry depends on manufacturing!

Mature advanced automation in “open” environments Initiate technology-/solution-development Welfare still too complex

Double demographic challenge

+

Digital revolution and exponential computational growth

+

Strategic robotic solutions in category 2½-4

Development and deployment of millions of

new service based robotic systems (and new industrial generation as well) over the coming 5-10-15 years - and this is only the birth of a new powerful global business segment!

Summary

Towel Handling Robot Cat. 3½, Pick of towels and feed into folding machine

Idea Pick of towels, correct insertion Care for corners and logo placement High-speed requirements (3-4 sec.) Needed automation, eliminate attrition Variation in towels, colour, size, weight Dusty environment, low-price required Finn (file-link), Martin (file-link)

Project The Prevention Fund Fcons – product owner, coordinator TriVision, Unisensor – sensors Universal Robots – robot Berendsen – req., tests, implementing DTI – concept and development Prototype runs, next larger texts

Eating Assistive Robots Cat. 3, Independent eating, improved quality of life, labour saving

Idea Sclerosis, Psychological and Physical

disability, Parkinson Breakfast, lunch, dinner Time reduce 50% to prepare, eat clean Quality of life increases Visitation is critical

Project ABT-Foundation Servicestyrelsen, DTI 2010-2012 Demonstration, effect documentation Prepare large scale implementation

Sterilization Department Cat. 4, Automated, cost-effective and hygienic handling of medical-sterilized devices

Idea Instruments for hospital surgery Cleaning, disinfection, storage/stock Robots for handling, storing, logistics Handling of magazines Logistical control of objects/magazines Enable rush-orders and mix-packaging GeH (YouTube),

Project ABT-Foundation Public labour saving Productivity increase Reliable delivery of instruments FAT is done, system is in operation 30+ more in DK to be implemented

Vacuum Cleaning Robots Cat. 2½, Productive use of vacuum cleaning robots in public services

Idea Private homes and nursing homes Saving labour in public cleaning service Productivity increase (area per hour) Improved worker health New cleaning principles, organisation Bin emptying, wall setup, maintenance Safe use for hearing-sight disabilities

Project ABT-Foundation Servicestyrelsen, DTI 2010-2012 Demonstration, effect documentation Prepare large scale implementation TV2Syd (Diverse robots)

Intelligent Compressive Garbage-Cans Cat. 3, Interactive garbage-compressive trash-bins for public street renovations

Idea Compress garbage, increase capacity Feed back load status to renovators Detect with sensors garbage input Respond with voice, sounds and lights Create fun and amusing situations Increase amounts of garbage collected TV2Øst, DR Aftenshowet,

Project ABT-Foundation Public labour savings Productivity increase (ton per hour) Cleaner cities and urban spaces Create businesses with urban space

intelligent devices Under development and next is tests

Power Suits - Exoskeletons Cat. 4, Independent living for young handicapped and labour savings

Idea Young chronically handicapped Live independently, master living Reduce use of labour and services Power suits for lower limb disabilities Later focus on rehabilitation:

lead support follow (as regains)

Project ABT-Foundation Public labour savings Status: being initiated

Intelligent toilets and lifts/catapults Cat. 2½, Labour savings, quality of life improvements, new ways of public services

Idea From 2 to 1 or 0 when using toilet Reduce personnel's time on the road Postpone when to go to nursing home From needing help to do-it-yourself Visitation is critical in order to match

technology with human cognitive and physical capabilities (TV2News)

Project ABT-Foundation Servicestyrelsen, DTI 2010-2012 Demonstration, effect documentation Prepare large scale implementation Dementia, sclerosis, anal problems,

muscular diseases, and similar

Honoré:

Model: R2D2

Honoré:

Model: Orchidé

The Future Bathroom Cat. 3, Design of technology enriched bathroom furniture for existing bathrooms

Municipality of Århus Skelager Nursing Home Renovating nursing homes New design of furniture Embed technologies for

semi-autonomous operations Enable independent living

One Solution 2-in-one Solution 3-in-one Solution

Bathroom for everyone Cat. 4, Danish design bathrooms with assistive technologies for everyone

Idea Independent living by elderly and

handicapped Participatory design, user needs Innovation methods Implementation models Proposed law changes

Project Ministry of Industries User Driven Innovation Programme 2009-2011 Mock-ups, visualisations, prototypes Basic methods and models

Dementia at home (mild) Cat. 3, User-driven invention and innovation of robotic based solutions

User-driven innovation methods Development of robotics based solutions Improve lives of people with mild

dementia Expose dementia related disability

Idea Enable disabled to bath independently From 2 to 1 or 0 employees Increase frequency of baths Organisation of bathing services EC marking and test of effects TV2Syd

Project The Prevention Fund Increase quality of life of elderly Reduce attrition of service workers Status: EC approved, now in test

Bathing Robot Cat. 2½, Introduction of bath-robot to the nursing homes and documenting effects

SWOPBOX® Save depositing of used and handover of new needles for marginalized users

Idea Safe handling and scanning of

used needles New clean needles returned Personalised fingerprint access Easy user interface 24-7 access to drug consultants Solar cell powered station Info and services to users

Project Product ready in the first version

Development to support private

start up company

SWOPBOX® by Michael Toftmann Schmidt & Allan Hylbech

www.swopbox.nu

Hybrid Gripper Cat. 4, Flexible, robust, cost-efficient and customer specific robot gripper(hand)

Idea Gripper configuration from object-CAD Easy and cheap to manufacture Grasp a family of objects Fast and robust in operations Industry, food, service/health

Project Materials, micro-hydraulics, robottech. 2-finger prototype ready and tested World News – and on HI-Fair’11 References build-up from operations Commercialisation via Schunk-DE Tommel, 2-Finger,

Hybrid Gripper Cat. 4, Flexible, robust, cost-efficient and customer specific robot gripper(hand)

Innovative playware Improve linguistic skills of children with multiple languages

LUCINAHAVEN BuusGraphics

Skoleteknologisk Netværk

SupplyNet

Equalize the cultural, social, and linguistic differences among children in Danish day-care centers.

Develop interactive playware encouraging the use of the spoken language regardless of the children's background and ability.

Utilize modern technologies enabling teachers and children to express themselves in multiple languages, eg. using images.

Apple Picker Cat. 4, Efficient picking of columnar-tree apples

Idea Invention of picking technology 120 apples per 30 seconds Only mature ones are picked More gentle than a human hand Cost-efficient technology

Project Close partnering with apple pickers Prototype on picking unit made Test executed with success License producer contacted

Paro Cat. 3½, Social pedagogical baby-seal robot for dementia patients in elderly homes

Paro (Japan, Shibata) Social pedagogical robot Dementia, handicapped Give care Act, react, interaction Alternative puppy/animal 200+ in DK, 50 i EU Open to nursing homes Shared knowledge YouTube, Computerworld

Paro Cat. 3½, Social pedagogical baby-seal robot for dementia patients in elderly homes

Otto (to the right) TV2 ØST

Click to edit Master title style QUAD-AV Ambient Awareness for Autonomous Agricultural Vehicles

ICT AGRI, ERA-NET EU project: Danish Technological Institute University of Salento, Fraunhofer Cemagref, CLAAS Agrocom

Objectives

Security system by fusion of sensors: stereo vision, LIDAR, RADAR, and thermal vision

Recognise obstacles like people, trees, animals, ditches(grøfter) and well-tops(brønddæksler)

DTI: fusion of stereo vision og thermal vision

Real time High Dynamic Range stereo cameras

Registration of stereo data og thermal data

Integration and coordination of other partners’ sensors

Positive obstacles

Difficult Terrain

Negative obstacles

Moving obstacles / Live animals / People

Termografi Realtime HDR

HDR Normal (same camera) Hand in grass in shadow is

easy to see in contrary to

the hand in the sun

Click to edit Master title style QUAD-AV Ambient Awareness for Autonomous Agricultural Vehicles

Video from field tests

Telepresence and tele-medicine Cat. 3, Tele-robotics in operation in nursing homes, private homes and hospitals

Patient suitcase Tele-medical / tele-presence Remotely delivered service/support Self-monitoring, independence Saving on time Improved quality of service Giraff AB

Robot-games for exercising elderly Cat. 4, Robot games for elderly to motivate for physical interaction and exercise

Public healthcare market in Denmark Regions & Municipalities, the public-sectors’ motivation for investing

Denmark 5.5 mill. citizens Capital – Copenhagen 1.1 mill. citizens Income tax: 40-60 % Fee on cars: 180 % Free: school, education, hospitals,

elderly care, roads, pensions

Regions and hospitals 5 Regions owns all hospitals Invests 8 bill. USD in 5 new hospitals World’s most advanced hospital-techs

Municipalities and social services 98 with approx. 50.000 citizens each 1.000 private homes’ services 10-15 nursing homes, 15-20 schools

Technological investment focus Reduce labour costs and logistics Increase quality of life, worker health Develop business clusters and growth

Danish healthcare/welfare funding An overview – and selected focus for the presentation

PWT Foundation (or ABT-Foundation) Public Welfare Technology (PWT) Anvendt Borgernær Teknologi (ABT) Focus: Labour saving effects Application, test, documentation

The Prevention Fund

Focus: Quality of working life Application, test, documentation

The Advanced Technology Foundation

Focus: Advanced technologies Product- and Market Development

Many other funding opportunities exist

More than 400 in DK and EU Many focus on research & development Many focus on innovation Many focus on competence build-up Many focus on demonstrations and test Many focus on tools and technologies Few focus on product development

PWT (ABT) -Foundation Public organisations’ investments in labour saving technologies

Demonstration projects Productivity-/service improvements Technology and new ways of working Innovative and challenging solution Potential for further exploitation Dissemination of results publicly

Implementation projects

Positive business-case on productivity Tested and documented solution Nationwide implementation

Facts New ways of exploiting technology $ 500+ mill. investments until 2015 2-phase proposals 25% self-financing Regions and Municipalities coordinates Companies/researchers supplies Also companies/researchers abroad

The Prevention Fund Public organisations’ investments in preventing workers injuries

Main theme #1 Preventing mental/physical injuries Specifically targeted branches, or Un-educated workers 2 project proposal calls annually ~ $ 40 mill. annually

Main theme #2 Improve rehabilitation and training Specifically for municipalities 1 project proposal calls annually ~ $ 7 mill. annually

Main theme #3 Improve workers health All private or public companies 2 project proposal calls annually ~ $ 12 mill. annually

Main theme #4 Preventing stress and mental injuries Nurses, social workers, school teachers 1 project proposal calls annually ~ $ 6 mill. annually

Facts Reduce attrition in the working life Improve occupational health and

safety in the workplace

Focus on methods, theory, research - not for research, for innovation! 4 main purposes/themes Up to $ 65 mill. annually

Danish organisations coordinates Companies/researchers sub-supplies Also companies/researchers abroad

Advanced Technology Foundation Investments in advanced technologies, focus on products, markets and business

Projects Single-disciplinary focus 2-3 year period Up to $ 6 mill. budget 50% self-financing Product and market oriented

Platforms Multi-disciplinary focus 3-4 year period Up to $ 30 mill. budget 50% self-financing Research and technology oriented

Facts DNATF – Danish National Advanced

Technologies Foundation Combine excellent research with

strong business case Focus on products, markets, business 2-fase project-proposals 2 project calls annually Projects and Platforms Open for all kinds of technologies Total $ 40+ mill. annually Danish organisations coordinates Companies/researchers sub-supplies Also companies/researchers abroad

CareLab® Companies’, Researchers’ and Health Care / Welfare Users’ platform for innovation

Show-Room & Dissemination Hands-on demo and try-out in labs Politicians and Public decision makers Knowledge-sharing among users

Training & Education New and coming users of technologies Welfare Tech Agents Super Users in specific technologies

Innovation & Testing User-driven/-involved innovation Development and test of new techs Consortia Partnership Programme (R&D)

Technology Implementation Marketing and Sales to end-users Implementation knowledge sharing Local technological support

Thank you for your attention! Q&A’s?

Claus Risager, Head of Centre, Ph.D.

Danish Technological Institute, Centre for Robot Technology

Forskerparken 10, DK-5230 Odense M, +45 72 20 39 85

cr@dti.dk, www.dti.dk/robot