ROBO Global_Europe Client Deck
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Transcript of ROBO Global_Europe Client Deck
1Q2 2016
DEFINING THE UNIVERSE OF ROBOTICS AND AUTOMATION
2
OVERVIEW
THE WORLD IS MOVING FROM AN ERA OF INDUSTRIAL AUTOMATION TO THE USE OF ADVANCED ROBOTICS ACROSS GLOBAL ECONOMY
ROBOTICS AND AUTOMATION IS…
ROBO GLOBAL PROVIDES…
• Positioned to outperform the global market for many years• Penetrating every aspect of our daily and business life• Providing a solution to many macro challenges across the world• Benefiting from technology advances and performance improvements• Driven by government as well as private sector investments• Becoming as ubiquitous as computers and as transformational as the Internet
• #1 industry classification defining the investable universe for robotics and automation• #1 index capturing the entire value chain of robotics, automation, and enabling technologies • Unique market coverage comprised of financial, research, and academic leaders• An index methodology designed to capture and track this growth trend• UCITS compliant coverage across 13 subsectors and 15 geographies• Performance stability via balanced diversification and a two tier equal weighting scheme
• Uncorrelated returns relative to other technology equities
3
ROBOTICS GROWTH CURVE
THE PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE OF ROBOTICS ECONOMY
1960’s
2025: $1.2 Trillion
Today: $64 Billion
Industrial
Industrial, service & consumer applications
Expensive industrial robots are introduced exclusively to auto manufactures.
SpecializedDecreasing automation costs and technology advancements expand applications and improve productivity.
Advantageous
Necessity
The cycle quickly accelerates, resulting in a shift from a corporate competitive advantage to automate or fail.
1970’s
1980’s
1990’s
2000’s
(SOURCE: MYRIA RESEARCH)
4
ROBOTICS MARKET GROWTH
$1.2 TRILLION UNIVERSE BY 2025, A CAGR OF 35% (SOURCE: MYRIA RESEARCH)
INDUSTRIAL• Manufacturing• 3D Printing• Collaborative Robots
• 3D Printing: 73% CAGR through 2019(Source: Gartner)
• Collaborative Robots: 51% CAGR to 2019(Source: RnR Market Research)
Applications Market Highlights
SERVICE &CONSUMER
• Healthcare Robots• Home Automation• Entertainment• Logistics Automation• Telepresence• Energy• Drones
• Global Drone Market: 32% CAGR to 2020(Source: Markets and Markets)
• Medical Robots: 22% CAGR to 2020(Source: Markets and Markets)
• Service Robotics: 24% CAGR to 2023(Source: The Robot Report)
5
STRATEGIC ADVISORS
ROBO GLOBAL TEAM
TRAVIS BRIGGSCEO ROBO Global USA
ROB WILSONVenture Capital Strategies
RICHARD LIGHTBOUNDCEO ROBO Global Europe
WILLIAM STUDEBAKERGlobal Active Strategies and Director of Research
WYATT NEWMAN, PhDProf. of Humanoid, Robotics& AI, 10+ Patents, 130 publications
HENRIK CHRISTENSEN, PhDDept. Chair of Robotics;Prof. at GA Tech University
MORTEN PAULSENCLSA, Head of Research forRobotics and Machinery Industry
RAFFAELLO D’ANDREA, PhDProf. of Dynamics Systems &Control; Co-Founder of Kiva Systems
LOUIS-VINCENT GAVEGavekal Founder; CEO MoneyManagement & Global Research
FRANK TOBEPublisher and Editorof The Robot Report
MANAGING PARTNERS
6
GLOBAL TRENDS DRIVING ROBOTICS GROWTH
INDUSTRY POSITIONED TO GROW WELL IN EXCESS OF GLOBAL ECONOMY
• Decreasing robot and technology costs • Technology advances, adoption and new applications• Rising labor costs & safety• CAPEX shift from capacity to efficiency and quality• Local production meets mass customization• Low penetration rates in all subsectors and markets
ECONOMICALLYADVANTAGEOUS
Widespread robotics adoption to decrease labor costs 18-25% by 2025 in China, Germany, USA and Japan (Source: BCG)
Global manufacturing costs account for $6 trillion annually, allowing for considerable potential for automation savings.(Source: McKinsey)
Themes Comments
• Government focus and sponsorship globally• Private placements and corporate investment• VC and M&A flows
INVESTMENT SUPPORT
In 2015 robotic companies - 55 were funded for $1.3bn & 32 robot were acquired for $2.3bn (Source: The Robot Report)
Google is building an army of robotic, automation & AI assets
Toyota invests $1bn in AI and robotics research in the U.S. Also hired the head of robotics at Google, James Kuffner.
$1B (robotics 1st “Unicorn”) – General Motors buys Cruise
• Aging populations• Decreasing workforce• Sustainability and resource scarcity
SHIFTINGDEMOGRAPHICS
The number of Japanese people aged 65 years < quadrupled in the last 40 years accounting for 26% of Japan's population.
Projected population growth by 2050 means agricultural production must double. With limited arable land, labor shortages and water considerations, productivity must increase 25% to help meet that goal. (Source: The Robot Report).
7
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR: CORNERSTONE OF GROWTH
Worldwide annual supply of industrial robots:(2009 - 2018* forecast)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
+15% per year on average
Sour
ce: I
FR R
obot
ics 2
015
100k
200k
300k
400k
Annual supply of industrial robots (2013 - 2014) and forecast for 2015-2018:
Asia / Australia
Europe
North America
Source: World Robotics 2015 • The Wall Street Journal
50k
100k
150k
200k
250k
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Taking Over: Industrial robots in operation world-wide, in thousands:
2013 2014 2017* Projection
2,000
1,600
1,200
800
400
Where they are: Industrial robots operating by country/region, 2014:
Japan 306,700
North America 237,400
China 182,300
South Korea 175,600
Germany 175,200
8
ROBOTIC PENETRATIONS SET TO ACCELERATE
Robot density per 10,000 workers:
Global robotics technology market by application (2025E):
37%
25%
25%
13%
Industrial
Commercial
Security
Personal
SOURCE: BCG
Global robotics technology market by types of robots in 2013:
46%
24%
18%
12%Industrial
Service
Mobile
Others
SOURCE: ALLIED MARKET RESEARCH
478
100
200
300
400
500
600
314
292
164
35
Average robot density world: 66
Kor
ea
Japa
n
Ger
man
y
USA
CH
INA
Global stock of operational robots by industry (units):
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025
Actual Projected
Baseline Projections
Low Projections
Actual
Aggressive Projections
IFR Projections
SOURCE: IFR 2015 SOURCE: IFR • BCG
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INVESTMENT UNIVERSE
GLOBAL DATABASE:1,000 COMPANIES
ROBO INDEXTRADED UNIVERSE:300+ COMPANIES
Criteria• % of robotics and automation revenue• Industry Classification sub sector fit• Trading Volume: $500 K *
• Market Cap: $200 M *
• A two-tiered, equal-weighted system• UCITS compliant index
* For exiting index members a lower Trading Volume and Market Cap filter is applied to drive stability
10
THE ROBO GLOBAL INDUSTRY CLASSIFCATION
The portfolio is divided into two categories:
• TECHNOLOGY: 39 holdings
• APPLICATIONS: 40 holdings
Technology
Applications
Companies with products and services that enable robots to “think, sense and act”.
Companies that deploy robotic and automation technology into a product, service or manufacturing process to increase efficiency and productivity.
Agriculture
Healthcare
3DPrinting
ConsumerProducts
Energy
Manufacturing
Logistics
Security
Processing
Actuation
Integration Computing
Sensing
Technology
DEFINING THE UNIVERSE OF ROBOTICS AND AUTOMATION
11
TECHNOLOGY OF ROBOTICS DEFINED
COMPONENTS THAT ENABLE ROBOTS TO SENSE, PLAN AND ACT
Sensing
Sensors serve as robot’s way to see, feel and hear the world around them.
Actuation
Actuators allow for the robot to move different segments of the machine. Robotic arms and grippers move uniquely depending on the task or purpose.
Computing
Like the brain, the computer is where knowledge or data is received, stored and relayed.
Processing
Like the neural network of the brain, robots take and process information from the computer and determine which messages to send.
IntegrationArchitecting a system to combine technology components in a robust and cost-efficient way.
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APPLICATIONS OF ROBOTICS DEFINED
THE EXPANDING FIELDS WHERE THE TECHNOLOGY IS BEING DEPLOYED
IndustrialManufacturing• Factory robots
• Co-bots
Security• UAVs
• Rescue robots
3DPrinting
• Additive manufacturing• Prototyping
ConsumerProducts• Drones
• Home automation
Agriculture• Farming robots
• Self-driving tractors
Healthcare• Surgical robots• Exoskeletons
Energy• Remotely Operated
Vehicles
MaterialsHandling
• Logistics automation• Warehouse robots
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TECHNOLOGY
SECTOR SPOTLIGHT:Sensing
In order for a system to exhibit autonomy, it must be able to sense its environment, in addition to determining its own internal state. Sensors are used in robotic systems ranging from drones to co-bots to self-driving cars.
Inside the index:
• Ticker: MBLY• Company size: $6.2 B• Revenue: $208 MM• EBITDA: $70 MM• Est. 12M EPS growth: 50%
Company description: Mobileye® is world’s leading supplier of driver assist technology, supplying about 90% of carmakers with cameras, sensors and other auto technology. Mobileye is currently working with GM, Volkswagen, Nissan, and Tesla to advance the autonomous driving capabilities.
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APPLICATION: SERVICE
SECTOR SPOTLIGHT:Healthcare
Through rehabilitation, diagnostics, exoskeletons and elderly care, robotics promises to drastically reduce costs, while improving quality of life. By using robots for difficult surgeries and neurological treatments that were previously unfeasible, robotics transcends cost-cutting.
Inside the index:
• Ticker: ISRG• Company size: $20 B• Revenue: $2.4 B• EBITDA: $850 MM• Est. 12M EPS growth: 12%
Company description: Intuitive Surgical® designs, manufactures, and markets da Vinci surgical systems, and related instruments and accessories. The surgical system translates a surgeon’s natural hand movements. Da Vinci and other minimally invasive surgical procedures now represent nearly 90% of all prostatectomy procedures.
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APPLICATION: INDUSTRIALS
SECTOR SPOTLIGHT:Manufacturing
The many economic advantages to speedy and error-free distribution, such as operating with low-inventory and being responsive to customer demands, is a significant growth area for robotics and automation. This is continually reducing the costs for end-users, both businesses and consumers.
Inside the index:
• Ticker: KUKA• Company size: $2.9 B• Revenue: $2.8 B• EBITDA: $250 MM• Est. 12M EPS growth: 14%
Company description: KUKA® develops, produces, sells, and services industrial robots for various applications and industry sectors, mobile platforms, control systems, and software solutions; and develops and markets products for the service robotics and health care sectors.
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APPLICATION: PERSONAL
From interactive robots for entertainment to automating household chores, consumer companies work to make everyday lives easier and more enjoyable. This impact will be particularly pronounced for these types of consumer products, which need to be inexpensive for wide adoption.
Inside the index:
• Ticker: PARRO• Company size: $250 MM• Revenue: $350 MM• EBITDA: $6 MM• Est. 12M EPS growth: +100%
Company description: Parrot® is one of the leading names in the consumer drone market. The company’s product line sports compact drones with built in cameras, waypoint autonomous navigation, proximity sensors, and attachments that enable hybrid flying and ground vehicles. Parrot is also beginning to delve into the commercial markets.
SECTOR SPOTLIGHT:Consumer
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INVESTMENT APPROACH
Explore the robotics universe through Robo Global’s proprietary database of over 1,000 robotics and automations companies; maximizing exposure to robotics companies positioned for growth.
PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION
• Equal weighting position size ~ 2.0% and ~1.0%• Manage 13 sub sector weightings• Capitalization size and liquidity• Robotics as a percentage of revenue• UCITS compliant• Quarterly rebalancing
~79 STOCK PORTFOLIO
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WEIGHTING SYSTEM FOR PORTFOLIO HOLDINGS
A two tiered, equal-weighted system ensures the strategy provides diversified exposure to a broad global ecosystem of new and enabling technologies as well as established automation/robotic providers.
NON-BELLWETHER
60%
BELLWETHER40%
NON-BELLWETHER• Companies that enable robotics/automation with growing revenue contributions• ~1% weight• 58 holdings
BELLWETHER
• Well established, leading robotics & automation companies• ~2% weight• 21 holdings
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PORTFOLIO CHARACTERISTICS
VALUATIONS & GROWTH
BEST P/E BEST EV/EBITDA Price to Book Volatility* Correlation**
ROBO Global Index 20.6 14.4 2.1 13.9% 1.00
MSCI World Growth 18.6 12.1 3.1 11.9% 0.88
S&P Global 1200 IT Sector 16.7 10.2 3.2 13.0% 0.80
Bloomberg World Technology Index
15.9 10.1 3.2 12.9% 0.79
NASDAQ Composite 20.7 15.2 3.3 14.7% 0.77
GEOGRAPHY
The diversified portfolio holds robotics companies in 15 countries:
Asia37%
North America
38%
EU18%
Other7%
MARKET CAP BREAKDOWN
LARGE CAP> $10 B
22% of portfolio
MID CAP$2-10 B
39% of portfolio
SMALL CAP< $2 B
39% of portfolio
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities* 5-year volume of daily returns** 5-year correlation of daily returns vs ROBO Global Index
ROBO Global Index 17.8%
MSCI ACWI 12.8%
S&P 500 9.0%
F12m Est EPS GROWTH
20
CONCLUSION
The Robotics & Automation landscape is enabling a technological revolution that will fundamentally change how we work and live. Robotics has transitioned from an industrial application to multiple applications across the entire economy. The ROBO Index provides diversified exposure to the entire “value chain” of Robotics & Automation.
ROBOTICS & AUTOMATION
• Is positioned to outperform the global market.• Is becoming increasingly visible in every aspect of our daily and business life.• Is a solution for emerging trends across the world from decreasing productivity growth to demographic shifts.
ROBO GLOBAL
• Leading team of industry and financial analysts.• Developed the industry classification system to capture entire market.• Created the first index in August 2013.
21
DISCLAIMER
GENERAL DISCLAIMER
Copyright © 2016 by ROBO Global LLC. All rights reserved. ROBO Global™ is a registered trademark of ROBO Global LLC.Copyright © 2016 by ROBO Global Partners Ltd. All rights reserved. ROBO Global® is a registered trademark of ROBO Global Partners Limited.ROBO Global LLC and ROBO Global Partners Ltd are collectively referred to as “ROBO Global.”Redistribution, reproduction and/or photocopying in whole or in part are prohibited without written permission. This document does not constitute an offer of services in jurisdictions where ROBO Global does not have the necessary licenses. All information provided by ROBO Global is impersonal and not tailored to the needs of any person, entity or group of persons.
The ROBO Global™Robotics and Automation Index and the ROBO Global® Robotics and Automation UCITS Index (the “Indices”) are the property of ROBO Global who have contracted with Solactive AG to calculate and maintain the Indices. The Indices are not sponsored by Solactive AG or its affiliates. Neither Solactive AG, nor any of their affiliates will be liable for any errors or omissions in calculating the Indices. Closing prices for the Indices are calculated by Solactive AG based on the closing price of the individual constituents of the index as set by their primary exchange. Historical performance illustrations in the Indices are based on a backcast calculation. A backcast calculation can be materially different from a backtest analysis.
Past performance of an index is not a guarantee of future results. The value of investments may go down as well as up and potential investors may not get back the amount originally invested. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Exposure to an asset class represented by an index is available through investable instruments based on that index. ROBO Global makes no assurance that investment products based on the index will accurately track index performance or provide positive investment returns. A decision to invest in any such investment fund or other investment vehicle should not be made in reliance on any of the statements set forth in this document. ROBO Global is not in a position to give advice on the suitability of any investments for potential investors. Prospective investors are advised to make an investment in any such fund or other vehicle only after carefully considering the risks associated with investing in such funds, as detailed in an offering memorandum or similar document that is prepared by or on behalf of the issuer of the investment fund or other vehicle. Inclusion of a security within an index is not a recommendation by ROBO Global to buy, sell, or hold such security, nor is it considered to be investment advice.It is not intended that anything stated in this website should be construed as an offer or invitation to buy or sell any investment in any Investment Fund or other investment vehicle referred to in this website, or for potential investors to engage in any investment activity.
Continued.
22
DISCLAIMER
No Investment Fund or other investment vehicle based on the Indices is sponsored, promoted, sold or supported in any other manner by ROBO Global or Solactive AG (the “Index Parties”) nor do the Index Parties offer any express or implicit guarantee or assurance either with regard to the results of using the Indices and/or an Index trademark or an Index price at any time or in any other respect. The Index Parties use their best efforts to ensure that the Indices are calculated correctly. Irrespective of their obligations towards the Company, the Index Parties have no obligation to point out errors in the Indices to third parties including but not limited to investors in, and/or financial intermediaries of, any Investment Funds or other investment vehicles. Neither publication of the Indices by Solactive AG nor the licensing of the Indices or an Index trademark by ROBO Global for the purpose of use in connection with any Investment Fund or other investment vehicle based on the Indices constitutes a recommendation by the Index Parties to invest capital in any such fund or investment vehicle nor does it in any way represent an assurance or opinion of the Index Parties with regard to any investment in such fund or investment vehicle.
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