Robert T. Dunphy, ULI Smart Transportation Workshop PennDOT, Harrisburg June 27, 2007 Smart...
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Transcript of Robert T. Dunphy, ULI Smart Transportation Workshop PennDOT, Harrisburg June 27, 2007 Smart...
Robert T. Dunphy, ULIRobert T. Dunphy, ULISmart Transportation WorkshopSmart Transportation Workshop
PennDOT, HarrisburgPennDOT, HarrisburgJune 27, 2007
Smart transportation and Smart Development
Significant investment in transit is eroding
1990-2000 Census for Pennsylvania
Percent Change in Transportation Mode 1990-2000
Carpool
Drive
TransitWalk
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
National Total
Pennsylvania
Major transit cities losing ground
Source: Federal Highway Administration
Percent Change in Transportation Mode 1990-2000
Drive
Carpool
Transit Walk
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Philadelphia
Pittsburgh
National
Annual Transit Ridership ~ Millions
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Philadelphia Pittsburgh PA
In M
illi
on
s 1980
1990
2000
2005
Traffic growth without population growth
Population and Congestion Growth
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
Pittsburgh Baltimore Philadelphia
Percent Population Growth1992-1999
Percent Vehicle MilesTraveled Increased 1990-1997
Percent Congestion Increase1992-1999
Sprawl far Outweighs Population GrowthPopulation increase and Acres of Open Space Developed
1982 to 1997
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Population Increase Acres Developed
In t
ho
us
an
ds
Other Open Space
Prime Crop Land
Population
Sprawl & congestion, no growth
Deteriorating Infrastructure, Growing Congestion 8,500 miles of road in poor condition8,500 miles of road in poor condition 5,000 deficient bridges5,000 deficient bridges $500 million funding gap for transit$500 million funding gap for transit
Pennsylvania is not alone
How are we doing – ASCEAmerica’s Infrastructure D
Drinking Water: D
Roads: D
National Power Grid: D
Transit: D+
Aviation: D+
Freight : C-
ASCE Infrastructure Report Card
“We’re suffering death by a thousand cuts, and no one is
willing to face up to it. If a crisis isn’t created, then there is no
need for an immediate response.”
“An approaching train wreck.”
Highway Trust FundGoing Bankrupt
-10
0
10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
$ Billions$ Billions
Source: Congressional Budget OfficeSource: Congressional Budget Office
Projected year-end balanceProjected year-end balance
Approaching Infrastructure Crisis
Suburban transport / land use model no Suburban transport / land use model no longer works longer works
Lack of connections and integrationLack of connections and integration Car dependency, shrinking transitCar dependency, shrinking transit Increasing congestionIncreasing congestion Higher driving costsHigher driving costs
Good News
Driving is low
FHWA, Highway Statistics 2004
Philadelphia
Pittsburgh
0 10 20 30 40
New York-NE NJHonolulu
PhiladelphiaMiami-Hialeah
Buffalo-Nia FallsBoston
Chicago-NW IN Cleveland
SacramentoPittsburgh
DenverSan Fran-Oakland
Los AngelesWashington
Portland-VancSan Jose
San DiegoDetroit
Minneapolis-St. PaulSeattle
PhoenixJacksonville
St. LouisSan Antonio
CharlotteDallas-Fort Worth
AtlantaHouston
West
South, SW
East
Mid West
Transit Share is High
26%
21%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Wash
ingto
n, DC
Boston
San F
rancis
co
Chicag
o
Philadel
phia
Pittsburg
h
Baltim
ore
Seattl
e
Atlanta
Clevel
and
Denver
Commute Time Up, Still Low
21.6
25.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 2000
Source: US Census Bureau
Min
utes
Downtown Population Growing
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Lower Manhattan Pittsburgh Baltimore Philadelphia Boston
% C
hang
e in
Pop
ulat
ion
Source: Eugenie L. Birch“Who Lives Downtown?”, Brookings, 1990-2000 US Census
Housing and TransportSpending Affordable
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Boston, M
A
Chicag
o, IL
Dallas,
TX
Denver,
CO
Los Angel
es, C
A
New York
, NY
Philadel
phia, P
A
Pittsb
urgh, P
A
Transportation
Housing
•Infill•Redevelop Suburban Centers•Growing Smarter on the Fringe
The Growth Component
Green Infrastructure
Green Infrastructure
Green Infrastructure
CulturalEcologicalDevelopmentalAgriculturalRecreational [GreenSpaceDesign.org]
Equal footingEqual footing Must have Must have Preserves places, Preserves places,
protects development protects development
Centers of Concentrated Mixed Use
Multiple Connections Enhance Circulation
Keep Local trips on local streets
Expand Transportation Choices
Transport Choices Must be Built in, Not Added on Later Transit readyTransit ready Build it, they will walkBuild it, they will walk
Make it Easy to Do the Right Thing
Sprawl results from the Implementation of Public Policy
Where Will The Money Come From?
PrivatizationPrivatization Increasing User FeesIncreasing User Fees
Increasing TaxesIncreasing Taxes
Likely37%
Indifferent19%
Unlikely45% Likely
73%
Indifferent3%
Unlikely24%
Likely62%
Indifferent3%
Unlikely35%
Sources: ULI survey of directors of planning for state departments of transportationSources: ULI survey of directors of planning for state departments of transportation
“You can’t have everybodydo their own thing” Break down silosBreak down silos Focus on sustainabilityFocus on sustainability Comprehensive, multi-disciplinary plansComprehensive, multi-disciplinary plans Integrated regional schemesIntegrated regional schemes
No Political Will
The Holy TrinityThe Holy Trinity No new taxesNo new taxes No new tollsNo new tolls No higher toll feesNo higher toll fees
•Don’t let congestion rule•Expand choices •Someone has to pay•Pick good projects
The Transport Component
Public Transit
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
Consumer Government
In M
illi
on
s
Private v. Public Spending
Consumer v Government Spending in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh
Private v. Public SpendingDriving
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
Consumer Government
In M
illio
ns
Consumer v Government Spending in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh
Long Range Budgets ~ Billions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Pittsburgh Philadelphia Baltimore
Other
Transit
Highway
Follow the money
13 c/ gallon < a penny a mile13 c/ gallon < a penny a mile Gas tax losing steamGas tax losing steam TollsTolls Congestion charges - VMTCongestion charges - VMT
Leveraging State Investment
PennDOT - $1.2billion capital spending annually.
Another $.96 billion is need.
Pennsylvania has $2.8billion of programs and grants to bolster business growth and sustain communities.
Smart Growth and Infrastructure Improvements will bolster business and sustain communities.
Toward Sustainability - Community Fix it first Fix it first Choice, controlled congestionChoice, controlled congestion Focus growth to reduce new transportFocus growth to reduce new transport Sustainable fundingSustainable funding The right projects reinforce smart The right projects reinforce smart
developmentdevelopment Get the price right Get the price right
Greenhouse Gas Emissions – the new wild cardCalifornia’s Attorney General - State Law AB 32
Limit sprawlLimit sprawl Promote compact developmentPromote compact development Encourage less driving, more transitEncourage less driving, more transit Address water supply issuesAddress water supply issues
Infrastructure 2007Infrastructure 2007Infrastructure 2007Infrastructure 2007
A Global PerspectiveA Global PerspectiveA Global PerspectiveA Global Perspective
Thanks!Robert T. Dunphy www.uli.org 800-321-5011