Texas Regional Collaboratives for Excellence in Science and Mathematics Teaching

Fourteenth Annual Meeting

Planning Ahead and Looking Back: Connections Between Early Science Interest and Science-related Careers (and a few other things you might find interesting)

Robert H. TaiUniversity of Virginia

July 9 - 11, 2008

National Research Council Report raises questions about the United States continuing to maintain its dominance as a world leader in science and technology

A commonly held belief among many scientists is that childhood interest plays

an important role in guiding and sustaining persistence in science study.

Can we offer an analysis that would provide convincing evidence for this

conclusion?

National Educational Longitudinal Study of 1988 - Public Release database

• Data collected from 1988 - 2000, a 12 year span

• Participants’ age ranged from 14 - 26 years old

• Data analysis used a subsample which inlcuded 3359 students

What do you want to be when you grow up?

Career Expectations in 8th grade

? ?

Majors of Earned College Baccalaureate Degrees

What kind of work do you expect to be doing when you are 30 years old? (MARK THE ANSWER THAT COMES CLOSEST TO WHAT YOU EXPECT TO BE DOING. IF YOU HAVE TWO OR THREE THINGS YOU THINK YOU MAY BE DOING, DO NOT CHOOSE MORE THAN ONE ANSWER. INSTEAD, MAKE ONE BEST GUESS.)

Multinomial Logistic Regression• Compared three outcome groups

– Physical Science/Engineering degrees– Life Science degrees– Nonscience degrees

• Two comparisons– Nonscience to Physical Science/Engineering – Nonscience to Life Science

• Question Predictor - Career Expectation• Controls

– Achievement– Demographic background– Academic characteristics– Parental background

Science Expecters

Nonscience Expecters

Science Expecters

Nonscience Expecters

Expected Science-related Career

Did Not Expect Science-related Career

Conclusions• Students’ future career aspirations in 8th grade

are a significant predictor of their likelihood to earn baccalaureate degrees in science-related fields based on this analysis

• Academic achievement as measured by a standardized mathematics test is NOT as consistently significant as 8th grade career aspirations in predicting science–related college degree concentrations in this analysis

Additional research findings from more recent work

What do scientists and graduate students have to say about their experiences?

• National survey study of chemists, physicists, and graduate students

• 30% response rate

• Analysis shows data is representative of chemists and physicists

Q18:145 - When do scientists and graduate students say they first became interested “science”?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

K-5th grade 6-8th grade 9-10th grade 11-12th grade first 2 yr college after 2 yr of college

When did you first become interested in science?

Percent

studentscientist

For scientists and graduate students in chemistry and physics, when do they form their initial interest in science?

• 70% of scientists and 69% of graduate students reported developing their interest in science in Grades K-8

• 24% of both scientists and graduate students reported developing their interest in science in Grades 9 - 12

• 6% of scientists and 7% of graduate students reported developing their interest in science in College

Q19:145 - When do scientists and graduate students say they first became interested “science”?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

K-5th grade 6-8th grade 9-10th grade 11-12th grade first 2 yr college after 2 yr of college

When did you first become interested in chemistry/physics?

Percent

studentscientist

For scientists and graduate students in chemistry and physics, when do they

form their initial interest in their career field?

• 29% of scientists and 23% of graduate students reported developing their interest in chemistry/physics in Grades K-8

• 52% of scientists and 56% of graduate students reported developing their interest in chemistry/physics in Grades 9-12

• 18% of scientists and 21% of graduate students reported developing their interest in chemistry/physics in College

New Analysis on Mathematics and Science Advanced Placement Using NELS:88 -

Restricted Access Database(in collaboration with C. Q. Liu & X. Fan)

• National Educational Longitudinal Study of 1988 - Restricted Access transcript data

• Respondents tracked beginning in 8th grade for 12 years, 1988 - 2000

• Focused on College graduates (4-year degrees) - Science-related v. Nonscience/Social Science Degrees

• Advanced Placement program participation - science & mathematics exams

Descriptive Statistics

Baccalaureate Degree

AP Calculus Exams AP Science Exams

Took Exam

Did Not Took Exam Did Not

Physical and Life Science-related

62 785 82 935

Nonscience/Social Science

56 1833 57 1476

Table 1a: Math/Science AP and non-AP Students in 1992

Descriptive Statistics

Table 1b: Math/Science AP and non-AP Students

AP Calculus Exams AP Science Exams

Took Exam Did Not Took Exam Did Not

Standardized Test Scores

Base-Year Math Mean (sd) n

54.9 (7.6)127

41.6 (10.6)3952

56.2 (6.8)152

42.5 (11.2)3539

Base Year ScienceMean (sd) n

24.3 (4.4)124

20.6 (4.5)3945

25.9 (3.9)152

20.9 (4.6)3539

SAT CompositeMean (sd) n

1185.0 (152.7)105

943.2 (180.6)1919

1236.8 (128.9)129

968.9 (197.5)1752

GPA in College Courses

Introductory MathMean (sd) n

3.3 (0.8)127

2.6 (0.9)3952

Level-1 ScienceMean (sd) n

3.1 (0.7)152

2.5 (0.9)3539

Logistic Regression

Outcome• Earned Science-related Baccalaureate (0, 1)

Predictors• Took AP science exam (0, 1)• Took AP math exam (0, 1)• Career Expectation (0, 1)• Demographic Background• Achievement Test Scores

Table 2: Logistic Regression Models of AP math and science exams predicting likelihood of earning Science-related Baccalaureate Degree (N=3863, Model 1 Pseudo R2 = 0.0450, *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01)

Odds Ratios for Nested Models

Model 1 Model 1a Model 1b Model 1c

Demographic Background

Included Included Included Included

Achievement Test Scores

Included Included Included Included

Career Expectation OR=1.98*** OR=1.96*** OR=1.97*** OR=1.93***

Took AP math exam OR=1.83** OR=1.69**

Took AP science exam OR=1.61** OR=1.30

Pseudo R2 0.007 0.003 0.007

Conclusions from new analysis using NELS:88 - Restricted Access Database

• Career Expectation remains a robust predictor for earning science-related baccalaureate degrees

• Advanced Placement participation in Mathematics and Science associated with greater likelihood to earn science-related baccalaureate degrees

• AP Mathematics participation subsumes AP Science participation

• Career Expectation and Advanced Placement participation in Mathematics or Science appear to be complementary

Association between High School science and mathematics and college science performance

• Sadler, P. M. & Tai, R. H. (2007). The Two High-School Pillars Supporting College Science. Science. 317(5837), 457 - 458.

• Project FICSS: Factors Influencing College Science Success

• Parallel analyses of three samples of introductory college science classes in biology (n = 2650), chemistry (n=3561), and physics (n=2263)

• Cross-disciplinary learning of high school biology, chemistry, and physics does not appear to be associated with higher levels of performance in introductory college science courses

hs bio hs chem hs phys

Broad Influence of Mathematics (i.e. Calculus)

• However, mathematics (specifically, high school calculus) has a significant association across introductory college science courses in all three disciplines, even biology

hs calculus

Recommendations

• Promoting Interest in Science is Important• Early Interest in Science is very important, but

continuing to promote interest in high school is also very important

• High test scores Do Not replace Interest• Advanced Placement in Calculus is not the only

answer, but it is helpful• Focus on steady advancement in K-12

mathematics culminating in Calculus will help promote higher achievement in introductory college science courses.

The national focus on secondary and post-secondary education appears to overlook

pre-secondary science education.

Given the apparent importance of the connection between

science interest (career expectations) and earned baccalaureate degrees in

science-related disciplines, reassessment of the

importance of the role of interest in science education

appears to be in order.

Thank you.

Robert H. Tai, rhtai@virginia.edu

Sections of the science “pipeline”

Interest in Science

Degrees in Science

Careers in Science

Many important questions are left unanswered.

• How do we best generate interest in science early within a child?

• How might an interest in science be translated into a child’s vision of her/his future?

• What kind of evidence do we need to produce to help guide our practices?

• What kind of evidence do we need to produce to convince an open-minded skeptic?

What is convincing evidence?

How do we know this interest came from your program and not from somewhere else?

How do we know that without your program, these children wouldn’t have arrived at their decision on their own?

What evidence do we have indicating that AYS-type programs are necessary?

Are Academies for Young Scientists

models for the future?

The answer to this question will not be based on whether or not your programs inspired children’s interest in science.

The answer to this question will be based on whether or not we can generate

convincing evidence.

Conclusions, again in English

Early Interest in Science

Degrees in Science

Careers in Science