Rob MacKenzie: Resilience, a personal research perspective

http://www.birmingham.ac.uk/research/impact/policy-commissions/future-urban-living/index.aspx

Resilience

is about the dynamics of a system

and about the future

Resilience

𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑

= 𝑃𝑃 − 𝐿𝐿;

𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑

= 0;𝑃𝑃 = 𝐿𝐿

𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑

= 𝑃𝑃(𝑑𝑑) − 𝐿𝐿(𝑑𝑑)

𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 = � 𝑃𝑃 𝑑𝑑 − 𝐿𝐿 𝑑𝑑 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑡𝑡1

𝑡𝑡0𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑

+ 𝑢𝑢𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑

= 𝑃𝑃 𝑑𝑑 − 𝐿𝐿(𝑑𝑑)

t

C

Css

Dynamic Systems

Finite space domain and time-varying boundary conditions

“shock”

L(t)→0

t

C

Css

P(t)→0

“shock”

Steady state

Managed landscapes are not usually near steady state; determining their resilience requires monitoring response to shocks/management/modifications

t

C

harvest

‘pseudo-resilient’

“Saf

e” o

pera

ting

spac

e

Responsive but not resilient

Shape of ‘bounce back’ or relaxation, over time, is most important characteristic

If we knew the (time-dependent) shape of the red hyper-dimensional resilience curves exactly we could in principle work out resilience exactly Css

Mature forests are a carbon sink – because of elevated CO2, nitrogen deposition, & changing climate

(Odum’s 1-D steady-state is inapplicable for finite patches with varying boundary conditions)

CO2

To find the ‘red resilience curve’: Free-Air Carbon Enrichment (FACE)

Aim to run experiment for 10 years + “The ecological equivalent of the Large Hadron Collider”

Wind 30 m diameter 24

-27m

, dep

endi

ng o

n lo

cal c

anop

y he

ight

BIFoR FACE: •£10m+ construction costs •~20 tonnes of CO2 per day •6-10, 150 yr-old oak standards •12-15, hazel coppice stools •3 trial plots •3 complete-replica controls •3 undisturbed patches

BIFoR FACE top-level research questions

1. Does elevated CO2 increase the carbon storage in mature woodlands?

2. Do other macro- or micro-nutrients limit the uptake of carbon?

3. What aspects of biodiversity and ecosystem structure-and-function alter?

4. How can lessons learnt be generalised to other woodlands and forests? (Global Network of second-generation Forest FACE experiments)

Norby, R. J., …, A. R. MacKenzie, R. Thomas…, Model-data synthesis for the next generation of forest FACE experiments, New Phytologist, 2015, DOI: 10.1111/nph.13593

Dendrometer

BIFoR FACE: intensive system monitoring

Core Measurements at Mill Haft

Underway – Dendrometers – LAI - via hemispherical photography – Leaf gas exchange – Stream Monitoring (Discharge,Water temperature, pH, Turbidity, Dissolved oxygen,

Nitrate & Nitrite, Dissolved organic carbon

– Eddy covariance flux measurements (CO2, H2O, CH4) – Phenocam – Meteorology above & below canopy – Plant tissue sampling – Invertebrate sampling – Litter traps – Soil sampling

Pending – Soil gas fluxes – Minirhyzotrons

Find key indicators of the shape of the ‘red resilience curve’ - Try the indicators in other settings

Beware of Category Mistakes

“There are almost never technical solutions to social problems.” Bruce Schneier, Harvard Law School (Nature, 515, p482, 2014).

Resilience

is about the dynamics of a socio-enviro-economic system

and about the future

Resilience

Resilient design puts in place necessary conditions and avoids hostages to fortune

MacKenzie, A.R., T.A.M. Pugh and C.D.F. Rogers, “Sustainable Cities: seeing past the trees”, Nature, 468, p765, 9 December 2010. Hale, J, … A. R. MacKenzie, Delivering a multi-functional and resilient urban forest, Sustainability, 2015, 7(4), 4600-4624; doi:10.3390/su7044600

The Future is plural Futures thinking exploits the human capacity for change Practicable futures are

• derived from established philosophical positions: Hobbes, JS Mill, Adam Smith, Schumacher. • derived from global scenarios → consistency across scales

Derived futures can pressure-test current or proposed systems Method gives rise to a shared rationale for interventions

can guide practice at every level from policy formulation through to implementation in specific sites, reducing the risk of “box-ticking”.

Hunt, … A. R. MacKenzie, et al., Scenario archetypes: Converging rather than diverging themes, Sustainability 2012, 4(4), 740-772; doi:10.3390/su4040740

Boyko, … MacKenzie et al., Benchmarking sustainability in cities: The role of indicators and future scenarios, Global Environmental Change, 22(1), 245-254, doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.10.004, 2012.

Hunt, … A. R. MacKenzie, et al., Scenario archetypes: Converging rather than diverging themes, Sustainability 2012, 4(4), 740-772; doi:10.3390/su4040740

New Sustainability Paradigm An ethos of ‘one planet living’ facilitates a shared vision for more sustainable living and a better quality of life

Policy Reform Comprehensive and coordinated government action towards greater sustainability is initiated

Market Forces Well functioning markets are seen as the key to resolving social, economic and environmental problems

Fortress World The world is divided, with the elite in interconnected, protected enclaves and an impoverished majority outside

Image sources hyperlinked

Interactive Tool (for urban design)

STEP 1 Intervention&

Benefit

STEP 2 Necessary Conditions

STEP 3 Future

Performance

STEP 4 Resilience to

future change

STEP 5b Adapt

STEP 5a Implement

STEP 5c Seek

Alternative

STEP 1 Intervention&

Benefit

STEP 2 Necessary Conditions

STEP 3 Future

Performance

STEP 4 Resilience to

future change

STEP 5b Adapt

STEP 5a Implement

STEP 5c Seek

Alternative The analysis has flagged up reasons why the intervention may fail. This is the starting point for adapting the intervention or..

STEP 1 Intervention&

Benefit

STEP 2 Necessary Conditions

STEP 3 Future

Performance

STEP 4 Resilience to

future change

STEP 5b Adapt

STEP 5a Implement

Reasons why the intervention fails may provide a starting point for considering more resilient and radical alternatives

INNOVATION

INNOVATION

RADICAL INTERVENTIONS

STEP 5c Seek

Alternative

Resilience

is about the push-pull dynamics of a socio-enviro-economic system

and about moving into the future

Resilience

Source: tiswango flickr.com/tiswango

“Systems thinking” for something as complicated as a forest can feel like running an n-dimensional 3-legged

race…

One-world living

Resource consumption

Design Emergence

Vanguardism Leadership

Regulations Business models

Planning

Ecosystems Communities The Market

wisdom Evidence-based deduction; vision; ideology

Over-reaching expertise

Consumption-based demand

Consumption-focused metrics

New ways of living; New ways of making a living

Change in hearts and minds; Niche creation

New structures for living; New ethical codes for making a living

Moral pressure for change in rules

NARRATIVE

One-world living

Resource consumption

Design Emergence

Vanguardism Leadership

Regulations Business models

Planning

Ecosystems Communities The Market

agile trusted

acknowledged

Strongest when

experiments are encouraged

Strongest when vision is

embedded in a narrative

Strongest when value/values are

explicit Strongest when

costs are internalised

Image courtesy of The Woodland Trust

Resilient forests? Resilient cities? or Resilient mixed landscapes?

Odum’s 1-D steady-state is inapplicable for finite patches with varying boundary conditions –

but where even to draw the boundaries?

•Research into forest resilience can learn from other sectors –

cities/industry/society.

•Assessing resilience involves futures thinking – not necessarily technical or arduous.

•Moving towards resilient forests will require cooperative working: a “3n-legged

race” for progress.

•Finding resilience may involve re-drawing boundaries – mixed landscapes

•For managed landscapes (ie just about everywhere) we should use harvest,

management, and shocks to find the red resilience curves describing the system.

•The environmental resilience of woodlands and forests is being diagnosed in forest

FACE facilities.

Conclusions

bifor@contacts.bham.ac.uk @BIFoRUoB

www.birmingham.ac.uk/bifor