ROA_Mali_Synthèse SOCIO-ECONOMIC ROLES OF AGRICULTURE AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS (ROA) MALI CASE STUDY...
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Transcript of ROA_Mali_Synthèse SOCIO-ECONOMIC ROLES OF AGRICULTURE AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS (ROA) MALI CASE STUDY...
ROA_Mali_Synthèse
SOCIO-ECONOMIC ROLES OF AGRICULTURE AND POLICY
IMPLICATIONS (ROA)
MALI CASE STUDY NATIONAL SYNTHESIS by
Demba KEBE
ROA_Mali_Synthèse
Context : Strong grip of agricultural sector
• The economy of Mali strongly depends on the agricultural sector which
• Utilizes more than 80% of the population– Accounts for around 45% of the GDP– Accounts for 75% of the country’s export revenues – Food crops account for 52% of the total added value of the
agricultural sector – Cotton contributes for 30% of total added value of he
agricultural sector
ROA_Mali_Synthèse
Liberalization policy strongly displayed
Agricultural policy marked by two important phases of the last two decades: First structural adjustment phase of early 80’s
through 1994 Second phase : Structural adjustment of the
agricultural sector reinforced by macro- economic policies (I.e .devaluation)
ROA_Mali_Synthèse
Liberalization policy strongly displayed (Continued)
• Liberalization of input market (the cotton zone was not concerned by this policy)
• Liberalization of output market (PRMC) ; the cotton zone was not concerned
• Improvement of the fiscal environment• Implementation of common external tariff policy (TEC) which
penalize agricultural inputs • Export Tariff suppression but implementation of the TVA (18%)• Suspension of conjecture tariff on rice • The FCFA devaluation seems to reactivate the competitiveness
of some sub sector (rice, cereals, livestock)
ROA_Mali_Synthèse
An ongoing decentralization policy
• Creation of more than 700 local territories• Empowerment of collective authorities in areas
development and management of natural resources
• Ongoing Transfer of competencies and resources
ROA_Mali_Synthèse
Positive result in general, However,• The average rate of increase of cereals was ( 5,6% ) higher than
the rate of increase of the population (2,2%) for the country. The rate of increase of cotton production was 9%.
• Agricultural growth is more dependent on the increase of cultivated land areas rather than on productivity improvement (rice and maize in the south are not concerned here) – Some progress made for maize and rice productions with a rate 13,6%
and 11,1%, respectively– Perceptible Soils degradation in both zones (CMDT, ON)– The liberalization of input markets did not drove down input prices (State
monopoly transfer to private sector)
ROA_Mali_Synthèse
Research objectives• To inform and make available to decision makers some
tools which can help them analyze the diverse roles of agriculture,
• To identify positive and negative externalities of agriculture,
• to assess the impact of these externalities on the national economy and well-being
• to identify policies for strengthening or correcting these externalities
• to make available to malian decision makers the main results from this study
ROA_Mali_Synthèse
Methodology• The malian team decided to work on all the modules.• Use of secondary data on the agricultural sector in Mali • Selection of two production systems:
– cotton based system (cotton, coarse grains, sedentary livestock raising system
– rice based system(rice, vegetable crops production, sedentary and semi-sedentary livestock raising systems)
• Formal survey of farm households (module 2)• Informal survey of farm households in both systems
(modules 3, 4,6 et 7) and in Bamako (module 7).
ROA_Mali_Synthèse
Some limiting factors in undertaking the different tasks
• Lack of database on the malian economy• Non access to the database household
consumption (in construction on the EMEP)• Analytical tool (MEG) not fully handled• Rather descriptive approach than quantitative • However, some modeling temptation with limited
database (reduced size of sample)
ROA_Mali_Synthèse
Some results• Some major contraints facing malian agriculture are :
– low level of modern infrastructures for processing, handling, and keeping agricultural products ;
– lack of sustainable financing mechanism of sub sectors ;– lack of contact and coordination among the different actors of the sub
sectors ; – low number of structures in charge of collecting, analyzing and
spreading statistical information on behalf of the different actors of sub sectors
– the non functionning state of professionnel organizations regarding foods production ;
– the low level of knowledge of some sub sectors.
ROA_Mali_Synthèse
Environment and externalities• Diversity of production systems :
• Cotton based (cotton-coarse grains, livestock, low land rice, fruits and vegetables in the south and west of the southern part of Mali
• Rice based (fully irrigated rice , coarse grains, livestock, vegetables) center of Mali (“Office du Niger”, “Office riz”, low lands)
• Millet/Sorghum based (coarse grains, livestock) in western and center parts of Mali
• City belts(intensive livestock management, ) around cities • Pastoral system(extensive livestock raising system, irrigated rice) North
Mali• Lake /water recession areas (coarse grains, leguminous ), North and West
Mali• Oasis (date palm) farther North of Mali
ROA_Mali_Synthèse
Environmental impact on the “Office du Niger”
• The assessment covered four elements (water, soil, air and bio diversity)
• Preservation of environment and bio diversity by agriculture
At the water level– Tree replanting in the villages– Introduction fruit trees replanting– Management of areas and browsing land for animals– Sanitation through lands redevelopment – Income generating activities (mostly fishing)– Water fetching alleviation through the rising of water surface
ROA_Mali_Synthèse
Environmental impact on the “Office du Niger” (continued)
– Increasing development of areas planted with trees for services and for fruits production
– The tree specie called Eucalyptus constitutes an important source of energy (for SUKALA)
– Water quality degradation observed mostly around the houses and other places.
At the soil level– Risks of salinization and alkalization – Decreasing trend of the fertility of soils– Erosion phenomenon caused by wind and water in upland
areas
ROA_Mali_Synthèse
Environmental impact on the “Office du Niger” (continued)
– 7% of soils were degraded in 1989 and 20% of farm households were aware of soils degradation
Air and Bio Diversity– Rice cultivation in ON zone allegedly favors gas production
with greenhouse effect– Reduction of bio diversity by the introduction of the Asian
rice varieties but new ways to increase bio diversity by re-introduction of (NERICA’s).
ROA_Mali_Synthèse
Environmental impact on cotton based system
• The assessment covered four elements (water, soil, air and bio diversity) :
Air and Bio Diversity Pollution from :– Nitrogen fertilizers, not confirmed– Fertilizer with phosphorus content, observed in
general everywhere at a constant basis– Insecticides, observed but not at a constant basis
(old “bassin” for cotton production)
ROA_Mali_Synthèse
Environmental impact on the cotton based system
Soil– Serious degradation in some areas (old “bassin” for cotton
production)– Negative mineral balance for coarse grains production– Soil fertility maintenance strategy developed by farmers
through the integration of agriculture and livestock activities Bio diversity
– Wild life and landscape resources better here than in the other parts of the country
– High risk of disappearance of some animals because of the high pressure on natural resources.
ROA_Mali_Synthèse
Economic assessment of environ-mental degradation
• The estimated losses due to degradation can reach 21 to 26 % of the total GDP
• Positive externalities brought about by good area management in order to prevent environment degradation had not been assessed
• Micro-economic level : the economic value of soils degradation and mining was estimated to vary between 1 600 and 32 000 FCFA/ha/year (1 à 12% of he income of less equipped farmers)
• The economic value of soil enrichment was estimated to vary between 2 250 and 25 000 FCFA/ha/year ( 1 to 8% of the income of producers more equipped)
ROA_Mali_Synthèse
Agricultural growth and poverty reduction
• Evolution of the effect of poverty– Despite all the efforts, the population of Mali still remains poor (64% in 1999).– Poverty remains essentially rural.
Table : Effect of poverty (%) per area
Year 1994 1996 1998 1999
Rural 75,6 78,3 76,0 71,3
Urban 36,6 40,6 36,3 31,2
Total 68,8 71,6 69,0 64,2
ROA_Mali_Synthèse
Considerable Agricultural supply • High diversity of production systems in Mali • Rate of increase of agricultural production (5,6%) of the
90’s higher than the rate of increase of the population (2,2%)
• Rate of increase of agricultural production strongly dependant upon an increase in of the area cultivated and rainfall ( Fully irrigated rice in the ON and the relative intensification of maize cultivation in the south are some exceptions.
ROA_Mali_Synthèse
Evolution cultivated areas and cotton production (1990-1999)
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
superficie
production
Ha Tonnes
ROA_Mali_Synthèse
Peasants points of view on the role of agriculture in poverty reduction
• Concept of poverty defined by farmers as a lack or low level of availability of : Food,income and equipments (90%)Health problems,lack of animals, land, labor
force and transportation means are cited as the main characteristics of a poor.
ROA_Mali_Synthèse
Peasants points of view (continued)
Plus de pauvres aujourd hui qu'il y a dix ans dans votre village en %
87,5
50
12,5
50
0
20
40
60
80
100
Base coton Base riz
Non
Oui
ROA_Mali_Synthèse
The system of solidarity between farm families is a mechanism to fight poverty
• 70% of sampled households had relatives in the cities
• The transfer of cereals is a common thing (mostly in ON zone )
• The donations can constitute 4% to 8% of the total production of cereals
• Social redistribution unestimated
ROA_Mali_Synthèse
Some results from the simulationsThe results from the simulations showed that :
A 1% increase income would reduce the poverty level down to 0,19%, the depth of the poverty down to 0,66% and the severity down to 0,11,0%
In urban area, a 1% increase in income would reduce poverty effect down to 0,17%, the depth down to 0,81% and the severity down to 1,46%
ROA_Mali_Synthèse
Impact on indices from the reduction of the demand price
Simulations based on the rate of 25% and 50% (depicting the situation which may prevail during a good year)A 25% reduction of demand price will bring about in rural
area a reduction of 16% of the effect of poverty, a reduction of 11% of the depth poverty (P1).
In urban area, a price reduction of 25% will reduce the impact the effect of poverty down to the rate of 10% in rural area and a reduction of 50% will reduce poverty situation down to more than 52%.
ROA_Mali_Synthèse
Agriculture ad food security Food security had been treated in the light of 4
determinants : availability, access, stability and nutritional qualityThe availability was important in both study regions:
248kg/head/year and 298 kg/head/year, respectively at Sikasso and Segou, contrasting with a national average of 167kg/head/year.
The access to food is more difficult because of the low buying power of consumers, poor system for moving products from place to place, consumption habit.
Stability : Strong impact of the vagaries of climate, low level of infrastructures (roads, storage schemes, etc.) bringing about transaction costs to increase.
ROA_Mali_Synthèse
Food insecurity profile Vulnerable zones and groups
Urban zone : • Farmers and livestock raisers hidden in urban
areas • Divorced women and early children holders; • Civil servants in C category and other workers
with low income ;• Different households found vulnerable because
of diverse causes.
ROA_Mali_Synthèse
Food insecurity profile In rural area
Populated families with less resources ;Fishermen and livestock raisers with no
resources practicing different activities not fully handled,
Farmers adopting production systems which performances are in jeopardy
Farmers facing land problems.
ROA_Mali_Synthèse
Nutritional status
The demographic and health survey of Mali (EDSM), undertaken in1995-96 on a sample of 4678 children of less than 3 years old had shown a high rate of malnutrition : 30% of these children were experiencing a slow
development , 23% were emaciated, 40% of these children were presenting lower weigh
ROA_Mali_Synthèse
Buffer role of agriculture : devaluation impact reduction
The devaluation in 1994 in the UEMOA’s countries was aimed at restoring macro-economic equilibrium.
Increasing prices of imported goods without any compensatory at the salaries level s
Reduction of buying power or in other word reduction of the income of population (Mostly in urban area)
Increasing prices of local products two years after the devaluation (substitution effect) and relative
Likely positive impact of the steady increase of agricultural supply of the last decade.
ROA_Mali_Synthèse
Buffer role of agriculture (continued)
Steady increase of the GDP after the currency (FCFA) The primary sector play a major role than the other sectors in
the making of the GDP Restoration of the competitiveness of the traditional sub sectors
(cotton, rice, livestock) Strong reduction in cereals importation exception the wheat 75% of export revenues are from the agricultural sector (cotton,
livestock, cereals) Reduction of the value of importation and increase of the values
of export since devaluation of the FCFA currency had taken place
ROA_Mali_Synthèse
Buffer role of agriculture (continued)Non tradable commodities are now tradable (millet,
sorghum, maize) on the sub regional market placesNew jobs creation through diversification of revenue
sources Changes of the structure of spending with more
important part allocated to health, cloth and transportation purposes
Reduction of food bills brought about by the effect of substitution of imported stuffs for local stuffs.
ROA_Mali_Synthèse
Social viability : impact of the transformation of agriculture on the migratory movements
Four types of migratory movement in Mali : temporary internal movements, definitive internal movements movements linked to the systems of nomadism and
transhumance international movements
The rate of migration (the balance) observed in Mali is negative ( –0,88 %) implying that Mali is a country bound to emigration phenomenon.
ROA_Mali_Synthèse
Social viability : impact of the transformation of agriculture on the migratory movements (continued)
Migration towards agricultural zones involved the ON and the CMDT zones having more potentials
These migratory movements towards the areas with relatively high potentials are not assessed let alone let alone their impact on natural resources.
The proportion of households which migrated in the ON and which had no land varies between 10 to 20% of the total farm households at the ON.
ROA_Mali_Synthèse
Social viability : impact of the transformation of agriculture on the migratory movements (continued)
Long term or permanent migration concerns 38 % of farm households in CMDT zone CMDT contrasting with 27 % in ON
The migration phenomenon lost pace because of the improvement of the revenues of farmers
The costs /benefits assessment of migration is yet to be undertaken
ROA_Mali_Synthèse
Agriculture, culture et perception A high diversity of perception linked to many factors (Group
relationship with agricultural resources, political frustrations, etc.) Existence of multiple and strong forms of inter and intra among
ethnic and social groups Strong tendency for these groups to be autonomous resulting to
a survival and maintenance of local institutional l values in rural areas
Agriculture is perceived not only as a profession but also as a way of life
The contribution of the rural world to the social stability is perceived by rural dwellers a crucial factor.
ROA_Mali_Synthèse
Agriculture, culture et perception (continued)
The country’s identity is based on the network of old social customs and practices which are shared by all the citizens : solidarity, help, kinship and teasing
The notion of "national culture” is rather perceived differently : urban culture, rural culture or sum of cultures.
ROA_Mali_Synthèse
Agriculture, culture and perception (continued)
Agriculture and poverty reductionMere political slogan based on the disengagement of the
State Random activities ( climatic and et economic risks)Less tapped potential
Agriculture and environmentMajor and minor degradations of the environment
Environment restoration Agriculture et migration
Absorption of the rural/rural type of migration
ROA_Mali_Synthèse
Agriculture, culture and perception (continued)
Diversity of opinions on agriculture and the rural world :Food provider to people, mean for promotion and
concurrence for actors (producers)Neglected on the socio- economic and political
grounds (urban and leaders of peasant organizations) but important for social cohesion
ROA_Mali_Synthèse
Policies and externalitiesEnviron-
mentPoverty
Food security
Buffer role
Scial viability sociale
Culture
High investmnts + + + + + + + +
Taxes (UEMOA's common external tarrifs ) 0 + + + 0 0
Elimination of subventions from inputs price - - - - - - - - -
Interest rate reduction policy du taux by the BCAO + + + + + +
Currency (FCFA) devaluation - - + + + -
Taxation policy through le price (Water tax) + - + + + +
Land + - + + + -
Financial policy - + + + + +
Research and Extension + + + + + +
Training + + + + + + +
Development(Value enhancement) + + + + + +
Technology + + + + + +
Infrastructure policy + + + + + +
Decentralization ++ + + + + ++
Credit andprocurement of inputs and et equipment - ° + 0 0 0
Development (Value enhancement) + + + + + +
Total 8 8 14 13 12 9
Roles of Agriculture
Politiques
Macro-econom
ic policies
SEC
TO
RA
L P
OL
ICIE
S
ROA_Mali_Synthèse
Policy implications Development of water irrigation schemes in order to facilitate the
settlement of immigrants in ON zone Development policy geared towards the development of local
know-how in the cotton zone Orientation policy of immigrants towards zones more opened or
having potentialities Management policy for the type of migration with high magnitude
(Better evaluate and develop the transfer of resources) Decentralization policy more geared towards the development of
inter-communal initiatives Decentralization texts (laws and regulations) re-reading in order
to give more power to local institutions and social organizations Strengthening socio-professional organizations
ROA_Mali_Synthèse
Policy implication (continued) Environment
Strengthening the capacity of local actors in the management of natural resources in order to reduce negative externalities
Supporting or fostering positive externalities (hidden benefit of land development activities) in ON zone
Poverty Input and output markets development through good
infrastructures (roads, storage schemes) Credit system specifically for the poorDevelopment of social mechanism of solidarity and wealth
sharing
ROA_Mali_Synthèse
Implication for policy (continued)Food security
Investment in processing and storage schemes for cereals in order to reduce the effects of the vagaries of climate
Identification of vulnerable groups in order to find the right strategies to fight food insecurity
Buffer effectFurther implementing Sub-regional and regional
integration policies
ROA_Mali_Synthèse
Suggestions for further analysis Implementing econometric analyses planned for modules 4
and 5Re-do the econometric analyses of module 3 with EMEP’s
databaseQuantify environmental externalities (hidden benefits in ON
zone )Estimate the transfer of resources of the migratory
movement with high magnitudeFurther research on the cultural aspect (role of the cultural
dimension on the functioning of production systems)