Roadmap for Communication

Technologies, Services and Business

Models 2010, 2015 and Beyond

Presentation of the GIGA Roadmap on 31st Aug, 2010

Pekka Ruuska

VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland

2 31/08/2010

Outline (of this presentation):

Introduction

Main Trends in Communication Technology, Markets and Business

Situation in 2010

Coffee --- Break

Roadmap to 2015

Beyond 2015 – the Vision

Business Opportunities

Summary and Conclusions

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Introduction

The five-year GIGA programme ends in 2010 and a new research program is actively planned

Roadmap work was initiated by Tekes and carried out by VTT together with GIGA research program’s thematic groups

Roadmap’s scope is in communication technologies, services and potential business models

From “2010 to 2015 …and beyond”: the focus is on the next five years

Evaluating the role of the Finnish small and medium sized companies and the Finnish ICT industry

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About Contents of Roadmap

Wireless communication technology in key role

In search of opportunities for new services, applications, research and business

Main interest in technologies which have potential to develop

GIGA’s themes were:

Wireless Access Systems

Transparent Networks

Network Support Systems and Services

Telecommunication Business

Security

Focus is on widely utilized systems and services while several prospective technologies are also presented

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Long term trends, changes of business

Wireless wideband connections enable new services

More personal, smarter, easy-to-use, everywhere and always

reachable entertainment along with business, banking, health

monitoring and other practical services

Converging physical and digital worlds with smart spaces into the

Ubiquitous World

Development in China, India and Russia strongly changes the

business view

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From the Internet’s world to an ubiquitous world

Ubiquitous vision: wirelessly co-operating, small embedded electronics in all devices and systems (beds, boats, bicycles, cars, homes, offices), providing information and services that foster convenience and efficiency… in 2030

Pace of ICT’s evolution is accelerating, still to realize the vision, many basic things must change

Now we live with mobile or nomadic internet and start bridging the internet with real life devices, augmenting reality with mobile phones

Smart spaces slowly emerge, M2M systems appear, ubiquitous world becomes real

Copyright© Ruuska 2010

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Current market and business trends

Towards providing end-to-end user experience, not only mobile terminals or network devices

Digitalization of all information - doing everything with smart pocket-size devices

Freeness, cheapness, openness and crowd sourcing

Collecting user’s information – and using it

Rise of Asia and China, development of India, Africa, South America

New opportunities in providing services for the elderly people, green and clean technologies

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Changing business environment

GIGA program produced business analysis and business scenarios: Ahokangas et al., von Hertzen et al, Hämmäinen et al.

Horizontal and vertical (end-to-end) business model scenarios for ICT

Network data based value-added business: a huge opportunity

Technology changes business: open source code, free data, SW as a service, cloud computing and iStore, Spotify, Ovi, Facebook, Twitter, Sportsdo, ..

Social media changes industry unpredictably, ICT and Web access becomes commodity everywhere, billions of customers become easily reachable

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Consumer’s new needs and desires

World became flat: markets are always open everywhere

Consumers immediately share their experience of products and services,

Virtual World is turning into a business World

New solutions are still needed… for easy control of digital content, secure and simple online shopping, ubiquitous learning, health and wellness, traveling and experiences, seamless offering of all services everywhere, understanding and patient user’s interfaces, protection of user’s identity, property and information, controlling of energy consumption

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Ruuska 2

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Rising Trends of ICT in 2010

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The Service Enablers

Green ICT: controlling energy costs, smart grids, smart

devices

Cloud computing: saving and optimizing computing

resources, multi-homing

Wireless and fixed broadband: on-line services advance,

low-power transmission with all devices, M2M

communication

Application stores: global distribution and proper earning

logics

New approach to security: protecting identity and

information, not only access to systems

Copyright© Ruuska 2010

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Communication Technology in 2010

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User’s equipment in 2010

Smart phones challenge desktop

systems, still the display size and

batteries limit them

Pocket devices offer more: many radios,

navigation, GPS, NFC, cameras, wallet,

touchscreens, book readers, controllers

for all home systems

All devices are getting connected,

television sets and their remote

controllers, camcorders, game-consoles

Still the simple phones, with plain CS

calls and SMS sell well Nokia X5-01 (Copyright© Nokia 2010)

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Radio technology in 2010

4G operational use just starts, WiMAX and LTE struggle (IMT-Advanced)

Allocation of 4G radio-bands still open

Flash-OFDM and TD-SCDMA vanishing

WiFi in 97% of laptops, mobility, wide-band, millimeter-band and high-power amendments coming

Broadcasting switches to digital, IPTV proceeds, 1080p50 resolution standardized, MPEG4 replaces MPEG2, scalable video codecs appearing

In low-power systems ZigBee (802.15.4) and Bluetooth dominate, UWB (802.15.3a) in a minor role

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Networks, their support systems and security in 2010

Convergence of networks progressed slowly while new network types appeared and IP connectivity boosted

IPv6 uptake still slow, but IPv4 numbers finally run out

LTE’s all IP core system comes

Femtocells compete against Wi-Fi with seamlessness and security

Mesh architecture in trial use, some business potential exists

QoS mechanisms rarely utilized, some potential in radio systems

Simultaneously more users, more mobility, more video load

Operators stick to their basic business: network support systems and services are more and more outsourced. New legislation and customer’s requirements raise the QoS expectations. Network device vendors are taking more role in network design and operation

Security of WiMAX and 3GPP systems is comparable, LTE introduces new solutions, WiFi’s security was weak but an amendment to standard is done. In low power systems processing resources compromise security. Cloud computing and smart-phones introduce new challenges

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Network technology and service issues in 2010

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Services offered in 2010

All popular network services offered for both laptop users and to pocket devices, while mobile users get some specific services

One-to-many communication and social media is everywhere

In fixed systems IPTV, HD resolution, 3D, video games, teleconferencing proceed, legal use of P2P advances

In wireless systems services based on NFC, GPS, locality and presence attract users, DBV-H exists, LTE is coming and bringing VoIP, use of smart phones in authentication and payment

Increasing M2M communication brings new challenges and opportunities

Social media, even in research Copyright© Ruuska 2010

Nokia C6 (Copyright© Nokia 2010)

19 31/08/2010

VTT creates business from

technology