Road to Cancun

www.isciences.com November 19, 2010November 19, 2010

Kyoto and Beyond

The 3rd installment in an ongoing series on multilateral agreements related to climate change

Kyoto and Beyond is a series of presentations on the evolving international climate treaty process that began with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

Road to Cancun is a summary of the process of negotiations that has transpired since COP15 (Dec. 7-18, 2009) and preparatory to COP16 (Nov. 29-Dec. 10, 2010). This includes significant events and progress on commitments made by individual countries.

http://www.isciences.com/spotlight/kyoto_and_beyond.html

Introduction

1

2

3

4

5

A Brief Review of COP15A Brief Review of COP15

Significant Events between COP15 and COP16Significant Events between COP15 and COP16

Current Greenhouse Gas Emissions StatusCurrent Greenhouse Gas Emissions Status

Contents

Anticipation of COP16: Ideas and OpinionsAnticipation of COP16: Ideas and Opinions

Addressing the 2˚ Temperature Growth CapAddressing the 2˚ Temperature Growth Cap

A Brief Review of COP15COP15 (Conference of the Parties) was held Dec. 7-18, 2009 in Copenhagen, Denmark.

COP15 was unable to accomplish the objective of establishing a new agreement that would follow the Kyoto Protocol. The Protocol, a commitment to reduce GHG emissions, expires Dec. 31, 2012.

Though discussions occurred on the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and on adaptation, general consensus was that COP15 was unsuccessful.

Independent of the official process, The Copenhagen Accord, a non-binding voluntary agreement on GHG emissions reductions was drafted on the last day by the U.S. and Brazil, South Africa, India, and China. (BASIC countries)

Image Credit: http: mattkava.com

“Mr. President, this is the worst meeting I’ve been to since the eighth- grade student council.” US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton to President Obama at COP15*

* New York Times, Mar. 18, 2010, After a Bitter Campaign, Forging an Alliance.

July 7Investigations validate CRU

scientists’ conduct

Dec 7–18, 2009 COP15, Copenhagen, Denmark

Nov 2US Congressional

elections

Oct 4–9 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Tianjin, China

Feb 9 Todd Stern speaks

at Center for American Progress

May 31 – June 11 Bonn ClimateChange Talks

Sept 24 Troika Meeting of Host Countries of

COP15, COP16, and COP17

Sept 25 Ministerial

Consultation on Climate Change and the Cancun

Conference

Oct 14 3036th

ENVIRONMENT Council Meeting

Key

Part of the official UNFCCCnegotiations process.

Not part of the official UNFCCC negotiations process.

January | February | March | April | May | June | July | August | September | October | November | December

Aug 2–6 Bonn Climate Change Talks

Significant Events Between COP15 and COP16

Sept 21 Christiana Figueres

speaks atThe Clinton

Initiative

For details and supporting documents click on an event.

May 17Christiana Figueres becomes UNFCCC

Executive Secretary

Nov 29–Dec 10 COP16, Cancun,

Mexico

Timeline 2010

Aug 30IAC issues review of IPCC processes and procedures

Current Greenhouse Gas Emissions Status

Image Credit: UNFCCC, http://maps.unfccc.int/di/map/

This map from the UNFCCC shows aggregate greenhouse gas emissions level changes for Annex I (industrialized) countries from 1990-2008 under the Kyoto Protocol. A numerical table of these results follows.

NOTE: Non-Annex (developing) countries are not restricted by The Protocol and are not included in the table. These “developing” countries, including China and India, currently account for 52% of global emissions.*

LULUCF=Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry

* Todd Stern, U.S. Special Envoy for Climate Change

Image Credit: UNFCCC, http://maps.unfccc.int/di/map/

This table shows a near-even split between Annex I (industrialized) countries that have lowered emissions since 1990 and Annex I countries that have increased emissions.

Annex I GHG Emissions Changes – Annex I Countries

Both COP15 and the Copenhagen Accord stress the need to prevent a global temperature increase of more than 2 Celsius in order to avoid “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.”

The most often stated objective is to keep GHG emissions under 450 ppm which most believe will constrain the growth in temperature to 2 °C. Current emissions are at 390 ppm, the highest level in at least 800,000 years.

The global surface temperature is rising. The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007) estimates an increase of 0.74 ± 0.18 °C since 1750.

For example, the IPCC found that a global rise of 2C would cause small island states to be submerged by rising sea levels.

©2010 National Academy of Sciences, National Research Council, Climate Stabilization Targets, Table 1. Relationship of Atmospheric Concentrations of Carbon Dioxide to Temperature. Permission is granted for this material to be shared for noncommercial, educational purposes, provided that this notice appears on the reproduced materials, the Web address of the online, full authoritative version is retained, and copies are not altered. To disseminate otherwise or to republish requires written permission from the National Academies Press.http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12877

The 2˚ Temperature Growth Cap

IPCC 4th Assessment Report (2007)

Consequences of global temperature growth beyond 2 C include:

Image credit: 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report

as much as 30% of species would be at a higher risk of extinction;

an increase in global flooding, decrease in food production, and a shifting of ecosystems;

impoverished countries would experience the most negative impacts including higher rates of malnutrition and fatal diseases.

The 2˚ Temperature Growth Cap

Reducing the annual global emissions budget to 44 Gigatonnes (Gt) by 2020 would limit warming to +2C. The current track projects 47.9 to 53.6 Gigatonnes, even if major emitters reach promised reductions. *

Some advise setting a 40 Gt budget for 2020 to reach the more ambitious threshold of +1.5 C.*

Even if CO2 levels in the atmosphere are stabilized, world temperature will continue to increase for decades.**

Near term emissions choices could lock in climate changes for centuries. CO2 induced warming will be nearly irreversible for at least 1,000 years.**

By 2020, with current policies in place, global GHG emissions could increase 30% beyond a budget that would avoid dangerous effects of climate change.*

Houghton, Jenkins, Ephraums, 1990 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. * ©2010 WWF (panda.org), Plugging the Gigatonne Gap. Some rights reserved.** ©2010 National Academy off Sciences, National Research Council, Climate Stabilization Targets

The 2˚ Temperature Growth Cap

The official Provisional Agenda (Advance Version) was released Sept. 9, 2010 by the UNFCCC. Click here to view entire agenda

Nov. 29 – Dec. 10, 2010 in Cancun, Mexico

Work towards finding an international agreement that can follow the Kyoto Protocol.

Increase the confidence of small island states and African countries with regard to adequate funding and aid from developed countries for implementing green technology.

Discuss the Clean Development Mechanism, Joint Implementation, and adaptation funding.

Some, including the Council of the EU Environment Ministers, believe that the ideas suggested in the Copenhagen Accord should be integrated into the new framework that is to be created in Cancun.

Official Agenda for COP16 – Key Concepts

Cop16 will be about building an agreement, putting the bones of the agreement together so people can see what the agreement looks like, what it means, before signing in 2011, two years after the COP15.

Yvo DeBoer, former Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC.

COP16? Forget it.… It's important that you have a pragmatic approach, and that you can show the global society that we are doing something.

Izabella Teixeira, Brazil’s Minister of EnvironmentImages credit: Wikicommons; UNFCCC

Mexico has intensified its efforts to encourage the global cooperation of both the industrialized and developing countries to present a common front in the fight against climate change… As the host of COP16, Mexico will seek to achieve agreements on how to finance the mitigation of climate change and the adoption of new technologies, as well as North-South cooperation, the increased participation of emerging economies and building a low-carbon economy.

Felipe Calderon, President of Mexico

We believe a significant outcome in Cancun should focus on providing the means for immediate global action… I think the minimum we want from Cancun is the package of decisions. If we are not able to put in place the package -- the complete package -- then we will be facing again a very critical situation.

Patricia Espinosa, Chair of COP16

Cancun is an important step on the road and it must be treated as such. A unique momentum was created in Copenhagen last year and it's important that we maintain it by proving that Cancun can deliver on practical decisions. Connie Hedegaard, Danish Climate and Energy Minister

Governments need to agree on what is doable in Cancun and how it will be achievable in a politically balanced manner. It is in everyone's ultimate interest to accelerate action in order to minimize negative impacts on all. Christiana Figueres,

Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC

Thoughts and Opinions of COP16

Brazil’s Ambassador for Climate Change has expressed a view shared by others: that Cancun will be one step towards the final outcome, but that the more significant results will occur at COP17 in South Africa.

Felipe Calderon, Mexico’s president, will strive for cooperation between wealthy and impoverished countries. The economic gap makes it increasingly difficult to reach a consensus.

Calderon has ranked the issue of climate change a top priority. A successful result at COP16 would help improve his nation’s global image and spread knowledge of climate change throughout Mexico.

Based on failures at COP15 few are optimistic about COP16, and the tone of the upcoming meeting in Cancun is anticipated to be more subdued than that of Copenhagen.

Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons

All Eyes on Mexico, COP16’s Host

1. To focus on the building of relationships between Annex I and Non-Annex I countries.

2. To address any concerns from developing countries and countries deemed most vulnerable to climate change in order to facilitate a discussion with fewer problems.

3. To reach out and address concerns from countries such as Venezuela, Ecuador, and Saudi Arabia that currently feel climate change agreements are more beneficial to developed countries.

Three major tasks on the table for Mexico’s President Felipe Calderon:

Image credit: Wikimedia Commons

All Eyes on Mexico, COP16’s Host

The feasibility of a “mega-treaty” dissolves in disagreement and COP16 fails to produce a binding post-Kyoto commitment document. This possibility has been referred to as “The Kyoto Gap.”

Image credit: UNFCCC

Big emitters may take action independent of both the UNFCCC process and the Copenhagen Accord process.

The Copenhagen Accord gains traction, but remains voluntary and outside of the UNFCCC process.

Components of The Kyoto Protocol are carved into smaller pieces of action in a stepped or parceled approach that may offer a more palatable, politically viable menu.

Conclusion: Possible Outcomes from COP16

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Sources

When referencing this slideshow please use the following citation:

ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The Road to Cancun. A slideshow; 3rd installment in the series: Beyond Copenhagen. November 19, 2010. Ann Arbor, Michigan. www.isciences.com.

www.isciences.com November 19, 2010November 19, 2010

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