Road Technology and Fuels to 2050 - Princeton University · zA hybrid with a larger battery ......

AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIEINTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

Road Technology and Fuels to 2050

Dolf GielenPierpaolo Cazzola

International Energy Agency

Princeton, 21-22 February 2007

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

TopicsThe IEA analysis frameworkKey facts and trendsEfficiency optionsAlternative fuelsScenario analysisConclusions


The IEA Analysis Framework


Released November 2006Released June 2006


Request for advice on alternative scenarios for supply security, CO2reduction and economic growth (IEA ministerial and G8)Mobility Modelling (MoMo) together with BP, Honda, Hydro, Nissan, Shell & Toyota: building on WBCSD SMP projectMoMo feeds ETP and WEOWEO2030: policies implemented and under consideration today, 2030 focusETP2050: aiming for CO2 emissions stabilization at today’s level by 2050


Key Facts and Trends


Oil Demand by SectorTotal 84 mb/d in 20052/3 Transport related

Transport fuels (incl. bunkering)

52%

Agriculture3%

Refineries8%

Non-energy use (Bitumen)

4%

Electricity production7%

Feedstock8%

Other industry8%

Heating&cooking10%


Global Fuel Use by Mode, 2005LDVs constitute the largest share,

but the total of other modes dominates

LDVs44%

2-3 wheelers2%

Buses6%

Freight trucks24%

Rail3%

Air12%

Water9%

LDVs2-3 wheelersBusesFreight trucksRailAirWater


New LDV salesSales have almost doubled in 25 years; the OECD region is still

dominant

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Sal

es [m

ln. v

ehic

les/

yr]

OtherOECD PacificOECD EuropeNorth America


LDV weight trends 1980-2005Weight explains most fuel

efficiency differences

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

Aver

age

LDV

wei

ght [

kg/v

ehic

le]

USAEU-15Japan

35%

28%


LDV Stock Efficiency Trends 1980-2005

19% improvement since 1980

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

LDV

stoc

k av

erag

e fu

el e

ffici

ency

[lge

/100

km

]

USAOECD EuropeJapanWeighted average


US Fuel Efficiency TrendsWeight gains have balanced

important technology improvements

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Fuel

effi

cien

cy e

ffect

s [%

]

Fuel efficiencyTechnology gainsMass penalty


Europe Fuel Efficiency Trends50% Dieselization explains largely

the difference with the US

-30

-20

-10

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10

20

30

40

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Fuel

effi

cien

cy e

ffect

s [%

]

Fuel efficiencyTechnology gainsMass penaltyDieselization


Efficiency Options


EnginesImproved ICEs

Relies heavily on electronicsGasoline engines applying modified diesel technologiesOperate closer to optimum conditionsThis will narrow the gap with diesel engines

HybridsDifferent levels of hybridizationProven technologyRelies also heavily on electronics


Non-Engine OptionsRoughly 30-35% of the energy delivered as work by the engine in a vehicle is wasted in the tires, about 35-40% is needed to overcome the inertial forces (mass related), another 25-30% is dissipated in the air (drag)Accessories need 5-10% of the work done by the engine (air conditioners, lighting…)This is not entirely considered in test cyclesImprovements in tires and accessories can reduce fuel consumption by 5-7%


Key Options and Their Cost

30-10035-50

25-1000

50-1008-10

80-13080-90

50-7040-5530-40

[USD/%]

500-100010Lightweighting

1500-400020-30Hybridization4705-6

Turbocharger & intercooler (downsizing)

1500-500020-40Total1002-3A/C

100-2002-4Tires02-4Improved aerodynamics

505-7CVT (for automatic transm.)

3505-7Variable valve lift and timing3406-8Cylinder deactivation40010-15Direct injection (lean burn)

[USD/car][%]

CostImprovement


Alternative Fuels


Many Competing Alternative Fuels + Non-Conventional Oil

Emissions increase

Low

High

Diversity

Hydrogen from natural gas + CCS

FT-Biodiesel

FT-coal + CCS

Non-conventional oil + CCS

CNG vehiclesFT-natural gas + CCS

Bioethanol (cane/cellulosic)

Low or no reduction

Oil shale

DME/MeOH natural gas + CCS

Oil sands

FT-natural gas

DME/MeOH coal + CCSFT-coalDME/MeOH coal

DME/MeOH natural gas

FCV + H2 from coal + CCS, nuclear or renewables

Emissions reduction

More efficient ICEs

Plug-in hybrids


The Cost of Alternative FuelsOil sands <30 $/bbl todayFT-synfuels from coal for 30-50 $/bbl crude todayFT-synfuels from gas may be even cheaper, but depends on stranded gas price & availabilityBiofuels: cane ethanol 30-40 $/bbl today (Brazil); lignocellulosic ethanol 50-60 $/bbl crude by 2030Hydrogen supply cost equivalent to 200 $/bbl today; 50-60 $/bbl crude by 2030 (but expensive vehicle needed)


Plug-In HybridsA hybrid with a larger battery Electricity from the grid results in efficiency gains and zero tailpipe emissionsRapid improvements in Li-ion polymer batteries (claims):

Rapid loadingExplosion safety (no Cobalt alloys)Use of cheaper electrode materialsLonger life span for deep cyclingCan all these features be combined into one battery?

Cost-effectiveness depends on oil & CO2 price, battery mileage and future battery costMay facilitate a transition to H2/FCV ? So far not considered in the analysis


Fuel Cell VehiclesEfficiency gain factor 2-3 compared to advanced ICECost is a challenge (today $2000/kW; <100 $/kW drive system needed)Technology is not ready; long-term optionPolicy support neededH2 infrastructure + transition workshop, Detroit, April 2-4


Scenario Analysis


IEA ScenariosWorld Energy Outlook Reference Scenario -Implemented policies, 2030World Energy Outlook Alternative Policy Scenario - Policies under consideration, 2030Energy Technology Perspectives ACT Map Scenario - New policies for global CO2emissions stabilization, 2050 (incl. USD 25/t CO2 incentive)Energy Technology Perspectives Tech Plus –ACT Map policies and breakthroughs for second generation biofuels and H2 FCVs result in CO2 emissions 16% below 2003 levels in 2050


Total transport fuel demand in Baseline scenario grows 140% (2050)LDV vehicle travel grows 140%Average Baseline LDV stock efficiency gain 18% (annual gain half that of the past 25 years)20 mb/d Baseline efficiency gains for all modesAverage LDV stock efficiency gain Act Map +40%, TechPlus +50%


Transport Sector Fuel Demand

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2003 Baseline 2030(WEO 2005)

Baseline 2050 ACT Map 2050 TECH Plus2050

Mto

e

OtherHydrogenBiofuelsNatural gasSynfuels coal&gasOil products


Transport CO2 Emissions

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2003 Baseline2030 (WEO

2005)

Baseline2050

ACT Map2050

TECH Plus2050

Mt C

O2

Hydrogen(inclefficiency)Biofuels

FuelEfficiency

CO2Emissions

2050 Baseline Emission Level

Savi

ngs

Savi

ngs


Total Emission Reductions ACT Map, 2050

Transport is Only Part of the Solution

Other renewables 6%Biomass 2%

Fossil fuel gen eff 1%Nuclear 6%

Coal to gas 5%

Hydro 2%

CCS 12%

Fuel mix in building 5% and industry 2%

Power Gen34%

End-use efficiency

45%

Biofuels in transport 6%

CCS in fuel transformation 3%CCS in industry 5%

MAP Scenario – 205032 Gt CO2 Reduction

Materials & products efficiency 1% Energy & feedstock efficiency 6%

Cogeneration & steam 2% Pocess innovation 1%

Industry 10%

Appliances 7.5%Water heat. cooking 1%

Space heating 3%

Lighting, misc. 3.5%Air conditioning 3%

Buildings 18%

Fuel economy in transport 17%

Transport 17%


Oil Supply and Demand (incl. non-conventional oil)

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20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2005 Baseline 2030 Alternative PolicyScenario 2030

ACTMap 2050 TechPlus 2050

WEO 2006 WEO2006 ETP2006 ETP2006

Oil

dem

and

[mbd

]


ConclusionsMost oil demand is transport relatedOil remains a key transportation fuel in any scenarioEfficiency and alternative fuels are needed Efficiency and biofuels can mitigate the oil demand growth and reduce CO2 emissionsPlug-in hybrids and/or Hydrogen FCVs may play an important role, but this is uncertainCO2 incentives pose no major driver, other instruments neededPolicies are needed to avoid that technology gains are mainly used to increase the performance


Released November 2006Released June 2006


LDV Efficiency Projections

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Newvehicles

Stock Newvehicles

Stock Newvehicles

Stock Newvehicles

Stock

Ave

rage

LD

V fu

el e

cono

my

(l/10

0km

)

OECDNon-OECD

2003 2050

Baseline Baseline ACT Map TECH Plus

- 18%- 50%- 40%

Road Technology and Fuels to 2050 - Princeton University · zA hybrid with a larger battery ......

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