River Basin Community Elbe (FGG) & German Federal Institute of … · 2019. 4. 16. · River Basin...

River Basin Community Elbe (FGG) & German Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG)

„Effect of dams in CZ and TH on floods at the Elbe river“Results of the project „Homogenisation of long HQ data series (1890 – 2013)

of gauges on the German reach of the River Elbe“

Project editors:Marcus Hatz, Jörg-Uwe Belz, Norbert Busch, Maria Larina-Pooth (BfG), Pavel Balvín (T.G. Masaryk Water Research Institute), Jakub Krejčí (Aqualogic Consulting)

Project support:German-czech ICPER expert group under the leadership of Jörg-Uwe Belz

„International Panel on the Elbe River 2019“, 9th/10th of April, 2019, Dresden on the current implementation of the EC-Water Framework Directive and the EC-Floods-Directive in the Elbe catchment

sou

rce:

dam

Orl

íkat

th

e V

ltav

a(1

2.0

8.2

015

)

1

2

Reduction of flood peaks by dams in Czech Republic and Thuringiab

ackg

rou

nd

sou

rce: http

://ww

w.lab

el-eu.eu

/

Saale mouth

aver

age

wat

erle

velr

edu

ctio

np

er r

iver

segm

ent

[cm

]

2002 used storage volume: 169 million m³




[up to calculations from BfG (2012) and BfG (2013)]

riversegment

Schöna

river segment

Dresdenriver segment

Torgauriver segment

Wittenberg

riversegment

Aken

river segment

Barbyriver segment

Tangermünde

riversegment

Witten-berge

river segment

Neu Darchau


3

Development of the controllable storage level in dams in the Elbe catchment

1932+: dams at Saale river

1960+: Vltava river cascade / Nechranice sou

rce: IKSE(2

005): D

ie Elbe u

nd

ihr

Einzu

gsgebiet, Seite 3

6

con

tro

llab

lest

ora

gevo

lum

e[m

illio

nm

³]

Yearcontrollable storage volume [million m³]

Czech Republic Germany Sum

Czech Republic Germany Sum


4

Physical inhomogeneity of long HQ-series (1890 – 2013) at Elbe river gauges

gauge Barby (OD)

pea

kd

isch

arge

[m³/

s]

„natural“ condition


HQ [m³/s]model state 1977 (without retention measures)

5

Excursus: Homogenisation of HQ statistics for gauges in the Rhine catchment

HQ

[m

³/s]

mo

del

sta

te1

99

8(w

ith

sele

cted

mea

sure

s)

Activities of „Hochwasserstudienkommission“ (HSK, 1978) and the International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine (u.a- ICPR / BfG, 1999)

sou

rce: BfG

(19

99

): Einflu

ssd

er geplan

tenR

etentio

nsm

aßn

ahm

enan

Ob

er-u

nd

Mittelrh

einau

f extreme A

bflü

sseam

Nied

errhein

regression (3)

range of validityHQ-state 1977 > 6006 m³/s


gauge Cologne

6

Modelling systemes: German Elbe river, Saale river and the Czech Elbe-catchment

sou

rce:

IKSE

(20

05

): D

ie E

lbe

un

d ih

r Ei

nzu

gsge

bie

t

1D-SOBEK-Elbe (BfG)

1D-SOBEK-Saale (BfG)

WTM-Saale (BfG)

Aqualog-model (Aqualogic Consulting)

including two models of the Vltava river: historical state(without dams) and at current state(including dams)

1

2

3

4

dams:1: Bleiloch and Hohenwarte (Saale) 2: Lipno (Vltava)3: Orlík (Vltava)4: Nechranice (Eger)

catchment Elbe river

legendcatchment border Elbestate bordersub-catchmentriver > 1700 km² catchmentsewer

lake

cities > 1.000.000 residents

cities > 90.000 residentskilometrage

Size of catchment [km²]

map scale

measured discharge (gauge)hydraulic model (HN)Aqualog-modelhistorical HN-modellateral inflow node


7

Model results: flood 2013 / differenz states / gauge Barby

MQ

HQ2

HQ5

HQ10

HQ50

HQ100

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000A

bfl

uss

[m

³/s]

Ohne Talsperren (Zustand 1890) mit Saaletalsperren

mit Saaletalsperren und TS Lipno mit Saaletalsperren und Moldaukaskade

alle Talsperren (Ist-Zustand) ohne Talsperren (Zustand 2013)

Hydrographs of the flood06/2013 for six different model states (without dikebreaks)

dis

char

ge[m

³/s]

without dams (state 1890)

including Saale-dams and dam Lipno

including all dams (as-is-state)

including Saale dams

including Saale dams and Vltava river cascade

without dams (state 2013)


8

Characteristics of transformation functions, determined for homogenisation

oS-oLi-oOr-oNe(1890) mS-mLi-mOr-mNe(2013)

mS-oLi-oOr-oNemS-mLi-mOr-mNe

mS-mLi-oOr-oNemS-mLi-mOr-mNe

mS-mLi-mOr-oNemS-mLi-mOr-mNe

mS-mLi-mOr-mNe(MOD) mS-mLi-mOr-mNe(2013)

identity line

stat

e2

01

3 [

dis

chra

ge, m

³/s]

state 1890 (without dams) resp. intermediate states [discharge, m³/s]

gauge Wittenberge

summerfloods

winterfloods

*glossary of the several model states according to BfG-Bericht 1938.


9

Results: Homogeneous HQ-series / state „2013“ (including effects of dams)

flood 1920

state 1890 (without effects of dams)state2013

gauge Wittenberge (OD)

intermediate states (increasing effects of dams)

pe

akd

isch

arge

[m³/

s]

pea

k d

isch

arge

dif

fere

nce

[h

om

oge

neo

us

–in

ho

mo

gen

eou

s se

ries

; m³/

s]

year

inhomogeneous series HQ-OD homogeneous series state 2013 HQ-OD ∆ peak discharge values


10

Results: Homogeneous HQ-series / state „1890“ (without effects of dams)

-3500

-3000

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

90001

89

0

18

93

18

96

18

99

19

02

19

05

19

08

19

11

19

14

19

17

19

20

19

23

19

25

19

29

19

32

19

35

19

38

19

41

19

44

19

47

19

50

19

53

19

56

19

59

19

62

19

65

19

68

19

71

19

74

19

77

19

80

19

83

19

86

19

89

19

92

19

95

19

98

20

01

20

04

20

07

20

10

20

13

Dif

fere

nz

de

r Sc

hh

eit

ela

bfl

üss

e [

ho

mo

gen

-in

ho

mo

gen

; m³/

s]

Sch

eit

ela

bfl

uss

[m

³/s]

Jahr

Homogene Reihen Zustand 1890 HQ-WQE Inhomogene Reihe HQ-WQE DELTA-HQ-Werte

flood 2006

gauge Dresden (OD)

state 1890 (without effects of dams)state2013

intermediate states (increasing effects of dams)

pea

kd

isch

arge

[m³/

s]

pea

k d

isch

arge

dif

fere

nce

[h

om

oge

neo

us

–in

ho

mo

gen

eou

s se

ries

; m³/

s]

year

inhomogeneous series HQ-WQEhomogeneous series state 1890 HQ-WQE ∆ peak discharge values


11

Results of the statistical calculations: example 100-year-floods

Homogeneous series state 1890 – „OD“ Inhomogeneous series – „OD“ Homogeneous series state 2013 – „OD“

without damsWittenberge:

4970 m³/s

inhomogeneousWittenberge:

4750 m³/s

including damsWittenberge:

4560 m³/s-230 m³/s -190 m³/s

BfG-Project „W-Q-Elbe 1890“

Intention: …consolidation of a reliable database for hydologicalworking and thereon establishedmanagement activities at the German Elbe river.

Output: improved, but still inhomogeneous HQ-series!

Figure: annualchange of tQ(max)-values [in %] (still including effectsby dams)


12

Results of the statistical calculations: example 100-year-floods

Homogeneous series state 1890 – „OD“ Inhomogeneous series – „OD“ Homogeneous series state 2013 – „OD“

Homogeneous series state 1890 – „WQE“ Inhomogeneous series – „WQE“ Homogeneous series state 2013 – „WQE“


4700 m³/s


4540 m³/s


4290 m³/s

-270 m

³/s

-210 m

³/s

-270 m

³/s

-230 m³/s -190 m³/s

-240 m³/s -250 m³/s


4970 m³/s


4750 m³/s


4560 m³/s


13

What‘s next? - Handling of project results!

Expert Meeting „Statistical basics for flood protection at the Elbe river“

(14th/15th of March, 2018, Magdeburg)

Usage of „official data“ or project data „WQ-Elbe 1890“?

Distinction between basic hydrological statistics anddefinitions for design floods?

New distinctions for design floods required?

Is a transfer of knowledge from Homgenisationproject for future tasks possible?

Coordination at international Elbe river catchment?

Additional, new calculation of flood plains for FloodRisk Management Directive necessary?

Considerung effects of dams as additional safetymargin (climate change)?

Based on the expert meeting, proposals for the decision of the German River Basin Community Elbe have been developed until the end of 2018!


14

New official HQ-statistics

10 decisions of the „Elberat“ (31. meeting, 02.11.2018), e.g.:

gauge HQ2 HQ5 HQ10 HQ20 HQ50 HQ100 HQ200 BHQ

discharge [m³/s]state 1890

(state without effects of the dams based on the databasis „WQE“)Basic peak discharge for

Q100 design flood

Dresden 1610 2180 2600 3100 3800 4360 4950 4370

Torgau 1570 2140 2560 3060 3740 4280 4840 ***

Barby 2240 2970 3450 3960 4590 5050 5480 4920

Magdeburg 2210 2940 3400 3890 4460 4850 5230 4870

Tangermünde 2220 2950 3420 3900 4470 4860 5230 4770

Wittenberge 2190 2860 3300 3760 4310 4700 5060 4545

Neu Darchau 2140 2730 3130 3560 4100 4480 4860 4450

Principles for regular examination of flood statistics

Principles for dealing with variations of values and cross-border involvement (federal states)

Principles for considering of flood protection measures in flood statistics

Coordinated approach for model-based calculation of longitudinal water levels for BHQ and HQT


*** still in discussion

15

Effects of dams at nine gauges along the Elbe river

Comparison of the HQT-values, calculated from the homogeneous series „1890“ & „2013“

data: statistic values based on project data „WQ-Elbe 1890“

relative values: in % from HQT-values without effects of dams (state 1890)

Uppper Elbe

Lower Middle-Elbe

Optimum effects of dams occur for floods with discharge HQ5-20. The effects are decreasing alongthe Elbe river from Dresden (> 14% / HQ10) to Neu Darchau (> 8% / HQ10) .

maximum value

dam

effe

cts

[in

%,

bas

ed

on

HQ

T-va

lues

wit

ho

ut

dam

effe

cts]


16

Testing of the „German“ homogenisation method for gauge Ustí nad Labem (CZ)

gauge HQ1 HQ2 HQ5 HQ10 HQ20 HQ50 HQ100 HQ200

Ustí n.L.(official values:

http://hydro.chmu.cz)1240 n/a 2220 2670 n/a 3780 4290 n/a

Ustí n.L.(homogeneous series, state

without effects of dams, BfG-method)

n/a 1590 2140 2550 3040 3730 4280 4870

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

Ustí n.L.(offiziell)

Ustí n.L.(BfG-Verfahren)

dis

char

ge H

QT

HQ(1)

HQ(2)

HQ(5)

HQ(10)

HQ(20)

HQ(50)

HQ(100)

HQ(200)

Δ = -10 m³/s

Δ = -120 m³/s

Δ = -50 m³/s

Δ = -80 m³/s

(official) (BfG-method)

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

dis

char

geH

QT

dis

char

geH

QT

HQ2 HQ5 HQ10 HQ20 HQ50 HQ100 HQ200


17

Marcus Hatz

BfG, Department M2

phone: +49 261/1306-5574

e-mail: [email protected]

Thank you for your attention.

source: dam Bleiloch at the Saale river (24.07.2014)

BfG-Bericht 1938:available in German language

http://doi.bafg.de/BfG/2018/BfG-1938.pdf

The translation into Czech language is under way!

http://doi.bafg.de/BfG/2018/BfG-1938.pdf

River Basin Community Elbe (FGG) & German Federal Institute of … · 2019. 4. 16. · River Basin...

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