RITICAL REVIEW OF THE REGIONAL CUMULATIVE … 09 29 MB Hydro RCE… · critical review of the...

CRITICALREVIEWOFTHEREGIONALCUMULATIVEEFFECTSASSESSMENT(RCEA)FORHYDROELECTRICDEVELOPMENTSONTHECHURCHILL,BURNTWOODANDNELSONRIVERSYSTEMSPreparedforthePublicInterestLawCentre,Winnipeg,ManitobaSeptember29,2017Preparedby:JillBlakley,PhD,MCIP,RPPAyodeleOlagunju,PhD,PMP

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TABLEOFCONTENTSAcknowledgments

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Acronyms 41.0Introduction

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1.1Backgroundandobjectives 51.2Qualificationsoftheauthors 61.3Reportformat 82.0RegionalCumulativeEffectsAssessment

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2.1Whatisregionalcumulativeeffectsassessment? 82.2Whyisitimportanttoassessregional-scalecumulativeeffects? 102.3Whatarethekeyelementsofregionalcumulativeeffectsassessment? 143.0ApproachtoReviewandReviewCriteria

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4.0SynthesisofKeyFindingsandObservations4.1Whatwasdonereasonablywell?

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4.2Whereareimprovementsneeded? 244.3KeyrecommendationstoimprovetheManitobaandManitobaHydroRCEAinitiative

4.3.1RecommendationsspecifictotheRCEAfiling4.3.2RecommendationsforastrategicRCEAinnorthernManitoba

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Appendix:DetailedAnalysisoftheRCEAFiling

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A.CoreandmethodologicalprinciplesB.MethodologicalapproachC.Cumulativeeffectsassessment

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ScopeRetrospectiveAnalysisProspectiveAnalysisManagement

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References

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTSWewouldliketoacknowledgeDr.BramF.Noble’ssignificantcontributiontoearlierversionsofthereviewcriteriausedinthisreport.

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ACRONYMSCAC ConsumersAssociationofCanada

CCME CanadianCouncilofMinistersoftheEnvironment

CEA CumulativeEffectsAssessment

CEC CleanEnvironmentCommission

CRD ChurchillRiverDiversion

LWR LakeWinnipegRegulation

NFA NorthernFloodAgreement

RCEA RegionalCumulativeEffectsAssessment

ROI RegionofInterest

RSC RegionalStudyComponents

VEC ValuedEcosystemComponents

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1.0INTRODUCTION1.1BackgroundandobjectivesCallsforaregionalcumulativeeffectsassessment(RCEA)innorthernManitobahavebeenongoingformorethanadecade.Throughanumberofrecentpublichearingsregardingvariousproposednewhydroelectricdevelopments“...itbecameapparentthatpasthydroelectricdevelopmentsinnorthernManitobahavehadaprofoundimpactoncommunitiesintheareaoftheseprojects,aswellasontheenvironmentupstreamanddownstream”1.InSeptember2004,aspartoftheWuskwatimGenerationandTransmissionProjectpublichearings,theManitobaCleanEnvironmentCommission(CEC)recommendedthat2:

TheGovernmentofManitobashouldundertakearegionalplanninginitiativeinnorthernManitobaandontheeastsideofLakeWinnipeg,toaddressexistingandfuturehydroelectricandotherdevelopments…Acooperativeregionalplanningapproachwouldbemoreappropriatetoassessthecumulativeeffectsofpast,presentandfuturedevelopmentsinnorthernManitoba.TheCommissionfurthernotesthatthereispotentialforastrategicenvironmentalassessmentapproachtofutureplanninganddevelopmentinnorthernManitobathatincludeshydroelectricdevelopmentalongwithfuturemining,transportation,infrastructureandrelatedprojects(Recommendation7.4.4).

InNovember2012,GunnandNoble3reviewedthecumulativeeffectsassessmentpreparedfortheBipoleIIItransmissionprojectandfoundtheapproachdismissiveofthecumulativeeffectsoftheprojectincombinationwiththeeffectsofotherpast,currentandfutureandprospectiveprojectsandactivities.Inotherwords,theBipoleIIIproject’simpactswereoften‘comparedto’theeffectsofotheractions,versus‘inadditionto’anypastchangesinvaluedecosystemcomponent(VEC)conditionsand‘inadditionto’theeffectsofothercurrentandfutureactions.Asaresult,theyalsorecommendedthat:

…theGovernmentofManitobaundertakeimmediatelyaregional-strategicenvironmentalassessmentofthecumulativeeffectsofcurrentandfuturelanduses,particularlyinthenorthernportionoftheBipoleIIIstudyarea.

Shortlythereafter,inits2013reportontheBipoleIIIProjectpublichearingprocess,theCECagainrecommendedthat:

ManitobaHydro,incooperationwiththeManitobaGovernment,conductaRegionalCumulativeEffectsAssessment[RCEA]forallManitobaHydroprojectsandassociatedinfrastructureintheNelsonRiversub-watershed;andthatthisbeundertakenpriortothe

1 CEC2013.ReportonPublicHearings:BipoleIIITransmissionProject,pg.126 2 CEC2002.ReportonPublicHearings:WuskwatimGenerationandTransmissionProject,pg.119 3 GunnandNoble2012,pg.16

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licensingofanyadditionalprojectsintheNelsonRiversub-watershedaftertheBipoleIIIproject(Recommendation13.2).

ThisrecommendationwasacceptedbyManitobaandaTermsofReferenceforaRCEAofhydroelectricdevelopmentswasagreedtobyManitobaandManitobaHydroinMay2014.ThescopefortheRCEAwasexpandedtoincludeareasbeyondthatidentifiedintheCommission'srecommendationtoincludetheChurchill,BurntwoodandNelsonRiversystems.Thestudywascompletedintwophases.ThefirstphasewascompletedinMay2014,andincludedacompilationofavailabledataandadescriptionoftheassessmentapproachtobeusedtoanalyzethedatainthesecondphase.OnAugust20,2015,termsofreferencewereissuedtotheCECtoconductpublicoutreachmeetingsregardingtheRCEAoftheChurchill,BurntwoodandNelsonRiversystems.ThesecondphasereportwascompletedinDecember2015. ThepurposeofthisreviewistoprovideanindependentassessmentoftheManitobaandManitobaHydroRCEAtotheManitobaCleanEnvironmentCommissiononbehalfoftheConsumersAssociationofCanada(CAC)(Manitoba)Inc.Specifically,theobjectivesaretocriticallyreviewtheRCEAfilingandprovideexpertadvicethatwillestablishthestrengthsandweaknessesoftheRCEA,andproviderecommendationsaboutwaystheinitiativecouldbeimproved,withaparticularfocusontheapproachandprocesstakentoassessingcumulativeeffects.ThereviewshallbeconsistentwithestablishedprinciplesandmethodologicalguidanceforRCEAinCanadaasendorsedbytheCanadianCouncilofMinistersoftheEnvironment,andwithestablishedRCEAguidanceasreportedinotherpeer-reviewed,publishedexpertworks,bothCanadianandinternational.Thisreviewdoesnotassessthescientificaccuracyordisciplinaryappropriatenessofthefilinginpresentingpastandcurrenteffects,butratherfocusesontheoverallapproachtocumulativeeffectcharacterization,andthecumulativeeffectsassessmentmethodologyaspresentedinthefiling.Similarly,thereviewdoesnotassessthefiling’saccuracyinpresentingcommunityperspectivesandconcerns,butinsteadfocusesontheoverallapproachtakentoconsideringandintegratingcommunityperspectivesandconcernswiththecumulativeeffectsassessmentapproachandmethodology.1.2 QualificationsoftheauthorsDr.JillBlakley4,PhD,MCIP,RPP,hasacademicandprofessionalpracticeexperienceinenvironmentalassessmentandnaturalresourcesmanagement,includingtheassessmentofcumulativeeffectsandhydroelectricdevelopments.SheisanAssociateProfessorintheDepartmentofGeographyandPlanningandcross-appointedtotheSchoolofEnvironmentandSustainabilityattheUniversityofSaskatchewan.ShehasbeenChairoftheRegionalandUrbanPlanningProgramsince2014.From1997-2003Dr.BlakleyactedasaconsultanttoBritishColumbiaHydroonintegratedresourcemanagementforelectricutilitytransmissionrights-of-wayinthecentral,

4 SurnameformerlyGunn,whichappearsonBipoleIII,Keeyask,andNFATcumulativeeffectsassessmentreviews.

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northern,andwesternregionsofBritishColumbia,includingnon-integratedgenerationsites.Shedocumentedadecade-longinformalprogramtoaddressawidevarietyofenvironmental,social,andeconomicmanagementimperativesviainnovative,site-specificvegetationmanagementstrategies.Dr.BlakleycompletedaPhDspecializinginstrategicandcumulativeeffectsassessmentin2009.HeracademiccontributionsregularlyappearininternationallyregardedperiodicalssuchasImpactAssessmentandProjectAppraisal,theJournalofEnvironmentalAssessmentPolicyandManagement,andtheJournalofEnvironmentalPlanningandManagement.Sinceherappointmentin2009,herbodyofworkonenvironmentalassessmentgrowntoinclude41peer-reviewedscientificpapers,bookchapters,andprofessionalreports,and44conferencepresentations.Intheareaofcumulativeeffectsassessment,shehasco-authorednumerousexpertreports,manywithDr.BramNoble,including:

• theCanadianCouncilofMinistersoftheEnvironment(CCME)guidanceonregional-strategicenvironmentalassessment(CCME2008,2009)whichinformedSection3.5(RegionalImpactAssessment)oftherecentfederalExpertPanelreportBuildingCommonGround:ANewVisionforImpactAssessmentinCanada(Gelinasetal.2017,seeSection3.5RegionalImpactAssessment),andalsoservedasafoundationfortheAlbertagovernment’sinnovativeLand-useFramework;

• aguidetoassessingthemacroenvironmentalimpactsofthepreferredplanandalternativesinManitobaHydro’sNeedsforandAlternativesToo(NFAT)reviewofKeeyaskandConawapaGeneratingStations;

• areportdefiningkeycumulativeeffectsconceptsforCCME’s14jurisdictions(CCME2014);• theCriticalReviewoftheCumulativeEffectsAssessmentUndertakenbyManitobaHydrofor

theBipoleIIIProjectexpertreport(2012);and • theReviewofKHLP’sApproachtotheKeeyaskGenerationProjectCumulativeEffects

Assessmentexpertreport(2013).Since1997,Dr.BlakleyhasprovidedexpertadvicetoarangeoforganizationsincludingtheCanadianEnvironmentalAssessmentAgency;FisheriesandOceansCanada;AlbertaEnvironment;theCanadianInternationalDevelopmentAgency;thePublicInterestLawCenterofManitobaandtheConsumersAssociationofCanada(Manitoba);Pape,SalterandTeilletBarristersandSolicitors;theCanadianInstituteofPlanners;andtheCityofSaskatoon.Dr.AyodeleOlagunju,PhD,PMPisanenvironmentalassessmentprofessionalwiththeGovernmentofAlberta.HeearnedaPhDin2016specializinginenvironmentalassessmentandtheintegrationofassessment,planning,andpolicy-makingonaregionalscale.Hisworkonimprovinggovernancearrangementstofacilitateregionalenvironmentalassessmenthasbeenfeaturedinnumerousinternationalpeer-reviewedjournalsincludingEnvironmentalImpactAssessmentReview,theJournalofEnvironmentalAssessment,PolicyandManagement,andImpactAssessmentandProjectAppraisal.Dr.Olagunjuhasco-authoredseveralenvironmentalassessmenttechnicalreportsincludingtheManitobaHydro’sNeedsforandAlternativesto(NFAT)ReviewoftheKeeyaskandConawapaGeneratingStations:MacroEnvironmentalImpactAssessmentguidance(withDr.Blakley)commissionedbytheConsumersAssociationofCanada(Manitoba)in2014andmorerecently,A

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ReviewoftheApplicationofCumulativeEffectsAssessmentintheContextofProjectEnvironmentalAssessments:TheJamesBayTerritory(withDr.BramNobleandJackieMartin,MSc)preparedfortheJamesBayAdvisoryCommitteeontheEnvironmentQuebec.1.3ReportformatThereportispresentedinfoursections,includingthisIntroduction.InSection2,anexplanationofthenatureandimportanceofregionalcumulativeeffectsassessmentisprovided,includingadescriptionofitscoreprinciplesandmethodology.InSection3,wedescribeouroverallapproachtothecriticalreview,andthereviewcriteriathatwereused.Section4presentstheresultsofthereviewoftheRCEAfiling.Boththestrengthsandweaknessofthefilingareconsidered.Section4alsocontainsrecommendationstoimprovetheRCEAinitiative,andguideManitobaandManitobaHydrofurthertowardgoodpracticeregionalcumulativeeffectsassessmentofhydroelectricdevelopmentsaffectingtheChurchill,BurntwoodandNelsonRiversystems.2.0REGIONALCUMULATIVEEFFECTSASSESSMENT2.1 Whatisregionalcumulativeeffectsassessment?CumulativeeffectsCumulativeenvironmentaleffectsarecommonlydefinedas“changestotheenvironmentthatarecausedbyanactionincombinationwithotherpast,presentandfutureactions.”5.Somedefinitionsalsoemphasizethecontributionofnaturalprocessestocumulativeenvironmentalchange,suchasthatrecentlyissuedbytheCanadianCouncilofMinistersoftheEnvironment:“achangeintheenvironmentcausedbymultipleinteractionsamonghumanactivitiesandnaturalprocessesthataccumulateacrossspaceandtime”6.Theactionsreferredtointhesedefinitionsareoftenvaried(heterotypic)innature,butalsocanbeidentical(homotypic)actions.Forexample,activitiesassociatedwithforestharvestingsuchasroadbuilding,streamcrossings,andclearingnativevegetationincutblockstogethercandegradewildlifehabitatforfur-bearerssuchasgraywolf7,butrepetitive,episodicdischargesofpulpmilleffluentintoarivercanalsodegradewaterqualityforsalmonandotherfreshwaterbiota8.Inbothcases,theperturbationscanoverwhelmtheabilityofthereceivingenvironmenttoabsorbthechange,causingacumulativeenvironmentaleffect.Cumulativeeffectshavebeendescribedas‘progressivenibbling’,‘deathbyathousandcuts’andthe‘tyrannyofsmalldecisions’9: 5 Hegmannetal1999:pg3 6 CCME2014 7 Houleetal.2009 8 Marmoreketal.1992 9 NobleandGunn2013

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‘Progressivenibbling’referstotheoften-insidiousprocessoflandconversionand/orenvironmentaldegradationthatoccursslowlyovertimeandtypicallyintheabsenceofaregionalperspectiveondevelopment.‘Deathbyathousandcuts’referstothephenomenonwherebysmall,butrepetitive,insultstothesameenvironmentalcomponentoccuroverandoverandeventually,butoftenunexpectedly,causeits‘death’ortotaldemise.The‘tyrannyofsmalldecisions’,aconceptoriginallyintroducedbyeconomistAlfredKahninthe1960s,helpsexplainhowbothofthesephenomenacanoccursimultaneously:itisasituationinwhichanumberofseparatedecisionscumulatively,andoftenunintentionally,resultinaconditionthatisneitheroptimalnordesirable.

Thus,cumulativeeffectsareofteninsidious:whilemanydevelopmentactivitiesanddecisionscanbeindividuallyinsignificant,togethertheirimpactscanhaveregionalandevenglobalrepercussions.CumulativeeffectsassessmentCumulativeeffectsassessment(CEA)andmanagementhasbeenakeyelementofgoodpracticeimpactassessmentformorethan40yearsincountriessuchastheUnitedStatesandCanada,andaroundtheworld.TheInternationalFinanceCorporation(IFC)oftheWorldBankdescribethisprocessas:

(a)analyzingthepotentialimpactsandrisksofproposeddevelopmentsinthecontextofthepotentialeffectsofotherhumanactivitiesandnatureenvironmentalandsocialexternaldriversonthechosenVEC[valuedenvironmentalcomponent]overtime,and(b)proposingconcretemeasurestoavoid,reduce,ormitigatesuchcumulativeimpactsandriskstotheextentpossible10.

Cumulativeeffectsassessmentandmanagementisarguablybestperformedonaregionalscalebecausethisscaleofassessmentisbroaderbothgeographicallyandtemporallythansingleproject-focusedimpactassessmenttypicallyis,anditisbetterpositionedtocapturetherangeofstressorsthatareaffectingaVECofconcern.WithinCanadianandinternationalenvironmentalimpactassessmentliterature,itiswellestablishedthatregional-scaleCEAisamoreeffectivemeanstoaddresscumulativeeffects11.ItdiffersfromCEAinproject-basedassessmentinanumberofways:

• itadoptsambitious,asopposedtorestrictive,scoping,meaningthattheimpactanalysisgoesbeyondtheevaluationofthesite-specific,directimpactsofasingleprojecttoencompassbroaderregionalunderstandingsofdevelopmentpressureandconsiderationsofthevarioussourcesofcumulativeenvironmentalchange12;

10IFC2013,pg.21 11Fore.g.,see:Roots1986;Daveyetal.2002;Kennett2002;CooperandSheate2004;HorvathandBarnes2004;Dalal-ClaytonandSadler2005

12HarrimanandNoble2008

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• thegoaloftheassessmentistoevaluatethefullrangeofimpactsonVECscausedbypast,currentandproposedfutureinitiatives,ideallyonamulti-sectoralbasis,anddeterminewhetherecologicalthresholdshavealreadybeencrossed.Ifathresholdhasbeencrossed,anyfutureimpactonaVECmustbeconsideredsignificant.Withthisinformation,itiseasiertodeterminewhichenvironmentalmanagementstrategiesarenecessarytorestore,maintain,orenhanceVECsustainability;

• ideally,itisstrategicinnature.WhenRCEAisapproachedasastrategicexercise,itspurposeisdifferent–itisusedtocomparecompetingdevelopmentscenariosanddetermineapreferreddevelopmentpathforthefuture,includingthedesirednatureandpaceofdevelopment.Theresultscanbeusedtoinformandinfluenceotherregionalplanningandpolicy-makingexercises,andsubsequentprojectapprovalsandconditions;

• itisoftenusedtoestablishlong-term,coordinatedadaptivemanagementandmonitoringprogramstoensurestewardshipandprotectionofkeyresources,aswellasenhancesociallicensetooperateinaresourcedevelopmentregion;and

• itprovidesauniqueforumforconversation,innovation,andrelationshipbuildingamongprojectproponents,governments,NGOs,andthepublictohelpensuretheresiliencyofVECsismaintainedinthefaceofongoingregionaldevelopment.AnopenandcollaborativeapproachtoRCEAisessential.

2.2 Whyisitimportanttoassessregional-scalecumulativeeffects?Theincreasedpaceandintensityofresourcedevelopmentinmanyregionsoftheworld,combinedwithincreasedconcernforenvironmentalprotection,hasbroughtRCEAintofocusinrecentyears.AtthetopofmanyresearchandpolicyagendasacrossCanadaandelsewhereisdevelopingpartnershipsandinnovativemeanstoaddresscumulativeeffectssuchasclimatechange,worseningairquality,freshwatershortages,deforestation,noiseandlightpollution,andwildlifehabitatfragmentation.Somespecificexamplesofregional-scalecumulativeeffectsissuesinclude:

• Incrementallossofprairiewetlandsandpollutionoffreshwatercausedbyagriculturalpracticeswhichaffectsmigratorybirdsandotherwildlifespecies13;

• Shorelinedamageanddamagetothelandscape,flora,fauna,andhistoricalartifactsinmarineareascausedbyrepeatedvisitsbyship-basedtouristsintheAntarcticPeninsulaArea14.TourismrelatedimpactsaffectingwildlifeconservationeffortsarealsoexperiencedinCanadiannationalparks15;

• Sulfurdioxideandnitrousoxidepollutioncreatedbyelectricitygeneration,factories,andvehicleswhichistransformedintoacidrain;leadingtoacidificationofwetlandsandwaterbodiesandlossofspeciesdiversity16;

13GovernmentofCanada2017 14NationalScienceFoundation2000 15Cookeetal.2017 16https://www.epa.gov/acidrain/what-acid-rain

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• Greenhousegasemissionsleadingtoglaciermeltandrisingsealevelsandlossofpolarbearhabitat17;and

• Accessroadsandfly-infly-outprogramsintroducedinnortherndevelopmentregionsleadingtostrainoncommunityhealthandinfrastructureservices,starkincomedisparitiesamonglocalandmigrantworkers,andincreasesinalcoholanddruguseaswellascrimeandfamilyviolence18.

InAugust2016,theCanadianMinisterofEnvironmentandClimateChangeestablishedanExpertPaneltoinvestigateoptionsforimpactassessmentreforminCanada.ThereportoftheExpertPanel19underscoredtheimportanceofregional-scaleimpactassessmentbyestablishingitasacorecomponentof‘nextgeneration’impactassessmentpracticeandsignalingthefederalgovernment’sintentiontoassessthecollectiveimpactsofdevelopmentonaregionalbasis.ThereportoftheExpertPanelbuildsuponprinciplesandamethodologyforregionalstrategicenvironmentalassessmentestablishedbytheCanadianCouncilofMinistersoftheEnvironmentaboutadecadeprior20.Itrecommendsthatregionalandstrategicimpactassessmentsbeusedtoguideprojectimpactassessments,wherebystrategicandregionalimpactassessmentsproducethepolicyandplanningfoundationsforimprovedandefficientimpactassessments”21.AlthoughformallypromotedbytheCCME,interestinregionalcumulativeeffectsassessmenthasalsogrownorganicallyinthe21stcenturyinCanada.Numerousprovincialandfederalgovernmentdepartments,NGOs,andindustriesinCanadahaveinitiatedorcalledforregionalimpactassessmentsindependentlyoverthepastdecadeorso,basedonitsperceivedvalue-added.Theseinclude:FisheriesandOceansCanada;theSaskatchewanMinistryoftheEnvironment;AlbertaEnvironmentandParks;ParksCanadaAgency;TeckCoal;AboriginalAffairsandNorthernDevelopmentCanada(inpartnershipwiththeenergyindustry,Inuvialuitandotherregionalstakeholders);theCanadianbranchoftheWorldWildlifeFederation;theWildlifeConservationSocietyofCanadaandEcojustice;andConocoPhillips22,amongothers.Thegoalsandobjectivesoftheseinitiativesarevariable,reflectingdifferentenvironmental,social,andpoliticalcontextsandvaluesystems.Aswell,thenatureofeachassessmentisdifferent,withsomeassessmentsbeingstrategicinnatureandothersnot23.Takingastrategicapproachtoregionalcumulativeeffectsassessmentmeansthattheassessmentisproactiveandobjectives-led,anddesignedtoinfluencedevelopmentpolicies,plans,orprogramsat

17 https://www.carbonbrief.org/polar-bears-and-climate-change-what-does-the-science-say 18Leungetal.2016 19Gelinasetal2017 20CCME2009 21Gelinasetal.2017,pg.3,6 22Seeforexample:GSHRES2007;BSStRPA2009;GunnandNoble2009;Kirchhoffetal2010,2011;Johnsonetal.2011;FidlerandNoble2013;NobleandGunn2013;ChetkiewiczandLintner2014

23See:HarrimanandNoble2008

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thehighestlevelandearliestopportunitypossible.Thefocusisonarticulatingdesiredgoals,objectives,andalternativesforfuturedevelopment.Itinvolvesassessingtheimpactsofeitherasingleormultipledevelopmentsectors,andineithercase,setsthecontextforsubsequentprojectdevelopment.Single-sector,strategicapproachestoregionalcumulativeeffectsassessment:

…evaluatethepotentialeffectsofproposedsector-basedinitiativesandalternativesincombinationwithimpactsfromprevious,existing,andfutureactivitiesandinitiativesofasimilartypeinordertoidentifyapreferredsector-basedenvironmentaldevelopmentstrategy.The‘sector’generallyreferstoplansandinitiativesofaparticularindustrysuchasforestry,mining,orenergy24.

AccordingtotheCCME25,thepotentialsubstantivebenefitsofastrategicapproachtoregionalcumulativeeffectsassessmentinclude:

• integratingsustainabilityconsiderationsinregionalpolicies,plans,programsanddevelopmentinitiatives;

• establishingacommon,long-termframeworkforregionaldecisionmaking;• analyzingimpactsneitherindividuallyorcollectivelysubjecttoprojectimpactassessment;• managingimpactsattheappropriategeographicscale;and• contributingtodiscussionsofsustainableregionaldevelopment.

TheCCMEnotespotentialproceduralbenefitsaswell:

• theopportunitytoimproveregionaldatabasesandcreatemechanismsforinformationsharing;

• facilitatingstateoftheartenvironmentalmonitoringandreporting;• savingtimeandresourcesbystrategicallyavoidingimpacts(reducingtheamountof

mitigationnecessaryinprojectimpactassessment);• settingperformancestandardsforsubsequentproject-basedimpactassessment;and• providingindicationofpublicinterestinregionalenvironmentalissues.

TheimportanceofundertakingastrategicregionalcumulativeeffectsassessmentexerciseinnorthernManitobaatthistimecannotbeunderstated.Followingnearlysixdecadesofhydroelectricplanninganddevelopment(plansfortheGrandRapidsHydroProjectbeganinearnestasearlyas195726anditbecameoperationalin1964),significantcumulativechangetotheenvironment,includingsocialandculturalimpactstoIndigenousandnon-Indigenouscommunitiesintheregion,isundeniable.ThisisprominentlynotedintheKeeyaskenvironmentalimpactstatement27,whichclearlyacknowledgesthattheregionalenvironmenthasalreadybeensubstantiallyalteredbypast 24See:HarrimanandNoble2008 25CCME2009 26Waldram1984 27NobleandGunn2013

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development:

TheterrestrialenvironmentintheareatobeaffectedbytheProjecthasbeensubstantiallyalteredbypasthydroelectricdevelopments,lineardevelopments(includingtransmissionlines,highways,andraillines),forestryandminingexploration,andotheragentsofchange,andcontinuestoexperiencethoseeffectstoday”(Ch7,p.7-23).Thesocio-economicenvironmentintheareatobeaffectedbytheProjecthasbeensubstantiallychangedbypasthydroelectricdevelopments,lineardevelopments(includingtransmissionlines,highways,andraillines),forestryandminingexploration,andotheragentsofchange,andcontinuestoexperiencethoseeffectstoday”(Ch7,p.7-37).TheaquaticenvironmentoftheNelsonRiverwhere[newprojectsmay]beconstructedhasbeensubstantiallyalteredbyhydroelectricdevelopments,inparticulartheChurchillRiverDiversion(CRD)andLakeWinnipegRegulation(LWR),andtheconstructionoftheKettleGS.Effectsof[newprojects]willbesuper-imposedonthisdisruptedenvironment”(Ch6,p.6-54).Fromthelate1950stothepresent,morethan35majorgeneration,conversionandtransmissionprojectshavebeenundertakenbyManitobaHydroinnortheasternManitobaaffectingthetraditionalterritoriesof[Indigenous]communitiesandmembers”(Ch.6,p6-12).

Rivershavebeendiverted,wildlifekilled,reservelandflooded,communitiesrelocated,etc.,withmanykeydecisionsinthefirsttwodecadesofdevelopment(1960-1977)beingrushedandIndigenouscommunitiesfacedwithdecisionstotallyunlikeanythingwithwhichtheyhadeverbeenconfronted28.In1979,aCommissionofInquiryIntoManitobaHydro(the‘TritschlerReport’)foundthatwithrespecttoimpactassessmentandcompensation,by1972ManitobaandManitobaHydrodidnothaveacompensationscheme,thatthevariousgovernmentdepartmentsfailedtocooperateintheareasofcompensationandmitigation,andthattheyadoptedaconfrontational,hostilestancetowardtheaffectedIndigenouscommunities29.In1977,theNorthernFloodAgreement(NFA)wassignedbyManitoba,ManitobaHydro,andthefederalgovernment,andratifiedbyFirstNationsleaders30toaddressmitigationandmanagementdeficiencies.Between1978and1992,anumberofmajoreffortsweremadetoimplementtheagreement,includinglandusestudies,ecologicalmonitoringprograms,andcommunityinfrastructureupgrades.However,therewasgeneraldiscontentwiththewayimplementationandcompensationwashandled,leadingtoManitoba

28Waldram1984 29Waldram1984 30InformationontheNorthernFloodAgreementinthisparagraphisdrawnfromKnowHistory(2016),commissionedbytheManitobaCleanEnvironmentCommission.

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Hydrosigningmajorimplementationsettlementagreementsbetween1992and1997.Additional,supplementalagreementswithNFAcommunitiesweresignedbetween2004and2015.AtissuewereongoingconcernssuchasfloodingoflandanddamagetoshorelinesbytheChurchillRiverDiversionandLakeWinnipegRegulationProjects,compensationforadversehigh-watereventsthatoccurredbetween1977and2016;andprovisionofalternativeemploymentopportunities. Atpresent,thereisauniqueandunprecedentedwindowofopportunityforpolicychangeregardinghydroelectricandotherdevelopmentinnorthernManitoba,beforeadditionaldevelopmentdecisionsaretakenthataffecttheregion.TheManitobaCEChasrecommendedthataRCEAbeundertakenpriortothelicensingofanyadditionalprojectsintheNelsonRiversub-watershedaftertheBipoleIIIproject.Ifcarefullydesigned,theRCEAinitiativecanhelpfocusattentionontheissuestogetthemonthepolicyagenda,createorstrengthencoalitionsthatsustainattentionaroundanissue,andincreasetheknowledgethatpolicy-makershaveaboutissuesimportanttonorthernresidentstodayandoverthepasthalfcentury.MostimportantlytheRCEAcanserveasameanstoproactivelyaddressregionalcumulativeeffectsissues,aspromotedbytheCCME,aswellasinformandstrengthenrelatedpolicyinitiativessuchastheManitobaCleanEnergyStrategy,theGrowingOurWatershedsinitiative,andpotentially,apubliclyendorsedvisionfordevelopmentinthenorth.2.3 Whatarethekeyelementsofregionalcumulativeeffectsassessment?WithrespecttogoodpracticeRCEA,guidingprinciples,amethodologicalframeworkthatdetailsimportantstagesintheprocess,andspecificguidanceonassessingcumulativeeffectsareallpublicallyavailable.Eachoftheseissummarizedbelow.In2009,theCanadianCouncilofMinistersoftheEnvironmentissuedanumberofcoreandmethodologicalprinciplesforregionalstrategicenvironmentalassessment(Table1)31–whichisessentiallyRCEAsetwithinastrategicassessmentcontext32.Thecoreprinciplesarethatitis:strategic;futures-oriented;commencesearlyon;cumulativeeffectsfocused;multi-tiered;multi-scaled;participatory;opportunistic;andadaptive.Intermsofmethodologicalapproach,itshouldbe:integrated;focusedonalternatives;regionalVEC-based;interdisciplinary;andstructuredandsystematic.Someoftheseelementsarethesameastheywouldinbeinanyimpactassessment(e.g.participatory,earlycommencement,adaptive),andsomearespecifictoaregionalassessmentcontext(e.g.integrated,regionalVEC-based,multi-tiered,multi-scaled). 31See:CCME2009,pg.14,15 32ItisregionalstrategicenvironmentalassessmentthatGunnandNoblecalledforin2012attheBipoleIIIhearing,andtheCECcalledforin2004attheWuskwatimhearing.

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Table1.CoreandmethodologicalprinciplesofregionalstrategicenvironmentalassessmentCorePrinciplesStrategic Goalsandobjectives-led.Identifiesstrategicinitiatives,evaluatesalternatives,and

formulatesastrategyformovingforwardtowardadesiredfuturestate.Futures-oriented FocusesonidentifyingpossiblefuturesandthemeanstoshaperegionaloutcomesEarlycommencement Isundertakenattheearliestpossiblestagesofdecisionmaking,toinformthe

developmentofstrategicinitiatives,policies,plans,orprogramsCumulativeeffectsfocused Identifiedcumulativeeffectsastherealeffectsofconcernoperatingattheregional

scaleMulti-tiered Theassessmentinforms,andisinformedby,broaderregionalandmulti-regional

environmentalmanagementandalsodownstreamprojectassessmentanddecisionmaking

Multi-scaled Primaryissuesofcumulativeeffectscanberevisited,whereneeded,notonlyatdifferenttiersbutalsoatdifferentspatialscales.Analysisofimpactsismulti-scaled

Participatory Ensuresearlyandongoinginvolvementofrelevantstakeholdersandinterestedpartiesinassessment(scoping,impactevaluation,significancedetermination),monitoring,andmanagement

Opportunistic Providesanopportunitytoexamineregionaldevelopmentthroughbroaderstakeholderdebate,andidentifiestheneedtocreateormodifyinstitutionalarrangementsforimprovedenvironmentalmanagement

Adaptive Treatsstrategies,andpolicies,plans,andprogramsas‘experiments’,expectingtomodifyandadaptthemasnewknowledgeisgainedthroughimplementation,monitoring,andfeedback

MethodologicalPrinciplesIntegrated Coreelementsoftheprocessshouldbetailor-madeandintegratedwiththedecision

makingsysteminplace.Shouldbeanintegralpartof,andprovideoverallguidanceto,thedevelopmentofregionalstrategiesandinitiatives.Shouldintegratemultiplescientificperspectivesanddisciplines

Focusedonalternatives Emphasizesthecreationandevaluationofalternatives,oftenintheformofalternativedevelopmentscenariosforaregion.Bycomparingmultiple,alternativedevelopmentscenarios,decisionmakersareabletoobtainavividpictureofthelikelyconsequencesofdifferentcoursesofaction

RegionalVEC-based Cumulativeeffectsprocessesareoftenlinkedwithhighlycomplexglobalandregionalenvironmentalmanagementissuessuchasclimatechangeorbiodiversity.Thus,theconceptofavaluedecosystemcomponentmustberelevanttoaregionalscaleofanalysis,andberepresentedbybroadindicatorsofecosystemhealthandregionalenvironmentalchange

Interdisciplinary Involvesmultiplelevelsofinterest,rangingfrompoliticaldecisionmakerstodisciplinaryspecialists,andvarioussectorsofthepublicincludingindustry.Emphasizesainter-disciplinary(asopposedtosimplymulti-disciplinary)approach;onethatenablesallpartiestoidentifyandaddresscommonissuesandtoappreciatewhere,andinwhatform,theirinformationisusefultoothersandatdifferenttiersofdecisionmaking

Structuredandsystematic Themethodologicalframeworkshouldbeflexibletotheparticularpolicyandplanningcontext,butitremainsimportantthatsystematicandstructuredmethodologicalframeworksareemployedatthestrategiclevel,astheyareattheprojectlevel

Thebasicmethodology,orprocess,toconductaregionalstrategicenvironmentalassessmentisshowninFigure1,below.Theprocessisstructuredandsystematicyetdesignedtobeusedflexibly

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inavarietyofdevelopmentanddecision-makingcontexts.Therearethreephases33:(i) pre-assessmentphase(steps1-3)inwhichgoalsfortheexerciseareestablished,thespatial

andtemporalboundariesoftheassessmentaredetermined,VECsofinterestareselected,andtheregionalbaselineisdescribedasareregionalstressorsandchangetrends.Opportunitiestoinfluencefuturepolicies,plans,andprojectdecisionsareidentified,alongwithkeypartnersandcontributorstotheassessment;

(i) assessmentphase(steps4-6)whichisusedtoidentifystrategicoptionsoralternativesfor

theregionandtheirpotentialeffects,opportunities,andrisks.EmphasisisplacedonassessingcumulativeimpactstoVECs,andusingthisinformationtoidentifyapreferreddevelopmentpathfortheregion;and

(ii) post-assessmentphase(steps7-9)whichfocusesonimplementationincludingadaptive

managementandmonitoring.Follow-upandreviewisconductedperiodicallyaftertheassessmentsothatadjustmentstotheimpactanalysisand/ormanagementplancanbemadeasnewknowledgeemergesorconditionschange.

Figure1.BasicmethodologicalprocessforregionalstrategicenvironmentalassessmentAtthecoreofanyregional-scaleimpactassessmentprocessisCEA(step5intheframeworkabove).ThereisplentyofguidanceavailableforCEA34,allofwhichidentifiesseveralnecessarycomponents

33StepsaredescribedinmoredetailinNobleandGunn,Ch5,Hannatext;andGunnandNoble,Ch5,inMorrison-Saunders,etal.text.

34Seefore.g.,CEQ1997;Ross1998;EuropeanCommission1999;Hegmannetal.1999;DuinkerandGreig2006;INAC2007;CanterandRoss2010;Noble2010;IFC2013;Duinkeretal.2013;CEAA

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inundertakingCEA.ThecorecomponentsofCEAareessentiallythesamewhetherinaregional,strategic,orprojectassessmentcontext.IntheabsenceofanyoneofthesecomponentsaCEAisincomplete.Thecomponentsare:

a) Cumulativeeffectsscoping,whichservestoestablishwhichprojectsandactions—past,present,andfuture—willbeincludedwhenevaluatingcumulativeprocessesofchange.GoodCEAadoptsecosystemhealthandfunctioningasacoredeterminantofVECselection;thusambitiousscopingisimportant.EffectiveCEAmustbespatiallyandtemporallyboundbasedonthedistributionoftheVECsaffectedbyboththeprojectsinquestionandtheeffectsofotherprojectsanddisturbances.

b) Retrospectiveanalysis,focusedondeterminingbaselineconditions,howconditionshave

changedovertime,whetherthatchangeissignificanttothesustainabilityoftheVECsofconcern(i.e.thresholddetermination,settingacceptablelimits),andwhetherandhowthatchangeisattributedorconnectedtopastandpresentdevelopmentactivities.AnattemptismadetoidentifyrelationshipsbetweenindicatorsofchangeinVECconditions(e.g.cariboupopulation;waterqualityindices)andmeasuresofhumanornaturaldisturbancesoastodeterminetrendsandassociationsthatcanbeusedtopredictVECconditionsorresponsestofuturecumulativechange.

c) Prospectiveanalysis,centeredonquantitativemodelingorscenario-basedapproaches,whichservestoassesspotentialimpactsorresponsestodisturbancesinthefuture,includingdisturbancesdirectlyattributabletotheprojectsinquestionandtootherpresentandfutureprojectsandactionswithintheregionalenvironment.Modelsaredeveloped(spatial,linear,quantitative,qualitative),basedonretrospectiveanalysisandinformationgainedfromnewdataorlessonsfromelsewhere,topredicthowVECindicators(e.g.,cariboupopulation;waterqualityindex)mayrespondtoadditionalstressinthefuture–stresscausedbytheprojectandbyotherprojectsandactionsintheregionalenvironment(e.g.,landscapefragmentation;rivercrossings).Inothercases,wheredataarenotavailable,lessonsfromtheoutcomesofsimilarprojectsandexpertjudgmentareusedtoexplorepossiblefutureconditions.

d) Management,designedtoidentifyappropriatemitigationandmonitoringactionsforthose

VECssubjecttocumulativeeffects.UnderstandinghowmuchmorechangeinanaffectedVECistolerable,oracceptable,iskeytosignificancedeterminationorsustainabilitytest,asthecasemaybeinaregionalassessment,andthisrequiresknowledgeofotherdevelopmentactionsintheregion–past,present,andfuture.InthosecaseswhereaVECisalreadyunhealthyand/orregionalconditionsarealreadyunsustainable,themanagementeffortsmustfocusonrectifyingorrestoringconditions,anddeliveringnetpositivecontributionstoregionalsustainability.

2014

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3.0APPROACHTOREVIEWANDREVIEWCRITERIAConsistentwiththescopeoftheworkoutlinedinSection1,weundertookacriticalreviewoftheManitobaandManitobaHydroRCEAforhydroelectricdevelopmentsontheChurchill,BurntwoodandNelsonRiversystems.Methodologically,thisinvolvedaliteraturereview(Section2.0)toestablishabasisforthereview,andsubsequentanalysisofthefilingtodeterminecorestrengthsandweaknesses,andidentifyanyareasforrecommendedimprovements.AlthoughtheCEC’sBipoleIIIrecommendationdoesnotcallspecificallyforastrategicregionalcumulativeeffectsassessmentinnorthernManitoba,andtheTermsofReferencefortheRCEAreflectthis,theCECdidpreviouslyrecommendastrategicapproachintheWuskwatimhearing.NobleandGunnalsorecommendedastrategicapproachtoregionalcumulativeeffectsassessmentintheirreviewoftheBipoleIIIfiling.GiventhattheConsumers’AssociationofCanada(Manitobachapter)haveaskedtolearnmoreaboutastrategicapproachtoregionalcumulativeeffectsassessmentandhowtheManitobaandManitobaHydroRCEAcompares,ourselectedreviewcriteriainclude:theCCME’scoreandmethodologicalprinciplesforregionalstrategicenvironmentalassessment,NobleandGunn’sstep-wiseprocesstoundertakeregionalstrategicenvironmentalassessment,andthefourcomponentsofastandardmethodologyforCEA,asdescribedabove.ThesearesummarizedinTable2.Table2.ReviewcriteriafortheManitobaandManitobaHydroRCEAPartA.CoreandmethodologicalprinciplesforregionalstrategicenvironmentalassessmentCoreStrategic Istheassessmentgoalsandobjectives-led?Arestrategicalternativestothe

developmentstatusquoidentified?Futures-oriented Isapreferredfuturedevelopmentstrategyidentifiedfortheregion?Earlycommencement Istheexerciseundertakenearlyenoughtoinformstrategicdecisionsaboutthe

futureoftheregion?Cumulativeeffectsfocused Areregional-scalecumulativeeffectsacentralconcern?Multi-tiered Cantheassessmentresultsprovidecontextfor‘upstream’(policy)and

downstream’(project)decision-making,andvice-versa?Multi-scaled Aredifferentspatialscalesusedtobetterunderstandregionalcumulative

effects?Participatory Arestakeholdersandkeyinformantsinvolvedinscoping,assessment,

monitoring,andmanagementactivities?Opportunistic Doestheexerciseinformbroaderstakeholderdebateandopportunitiesto

modifyinstitutionalarrangementsforimprovedenvironmentalmanagement?Adaptive Istheassessmentflexibleenoughtobemodifiedasnewknowledgeisgained

throughimplementation,monitoring,andfeedback?MethodologicalIntegrated Doestheassessmentdrawinformationfromexistingregionalstudies,andcan

itaddvaluetootherregionalplanningormanagementexercises?Focusedonalternatives Aremultiplealternativedevelopmentscenariosassessedsuchthatthelikely

consequencesofdifferentcoursesofactionareilluminated?RegionalVEC-based Areselectedvaluedcomponentsrelevanttoaregionalscaleofanalysis,and

representedbybroadindicatorsofecosystemhealthandregional

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environmentalchange?Interdisciplinary Isacross-sectionofdisciplinesandinterestsengaged,includinggovernment,

non-government,scientific,public,andindustryrepresentatives?Aretheseperspectivesdevelopedintheassessmentinaninter-disciplinaryfashion?

Structuredandsystematic Isastructuredandsystematicmethodologicalenvironmentalassessmentframeworkemployed?

PartB.Step-wisemethodologicalprocessforregionalstrategicenvironmentalassessmentPre-assessmentphase• developreferenceframework• scopetheregionalbaseline• identifyregionalstressorsand

trends

Assessmentphase• identifystrategicalternativesfor

theregion• assessthecumulativeeffectsof

eachalternative• identifyapreferredstrategic

alternative

Post-assessmentphase• identifymitigationneedsand

managementactions• developafollow-upand

monitoringprogram• implementthestrategy,monitor

andevaluate• follow-upandreview

PartC.Cumulativeeffectsassessmentcomponents35Cumulativeeffectsscoping i) TheCEAconsidersalltypesofactivitiesandstresses(human-induced

andnaturaldisturbances)thatmayinteractwithVECsofconcernii) TheCEAadoptsparticipatory,ecologically-basedscopingiii) AnexplicitrationaleisprovidedforCEAVECselectioniv) SpatialboundariesreflectthenaturaldistributionpatternsofVECs

selectedfortheCEAv) TheCEAadequatelycapturespastdevelopmentandothercertainand

reasonablyforeseeablefutureprojectsandactivitiesRetrospectiveanalysis i) Thebaselineanalysisdelineatespastandpresentcumulativeeffects

ii) ThebaselineanalysisestablishestrendsinVECconditionsandknownorsuspectedrelationshipsbetweenchangesinVECconditionsandthedriversofchange

iii) Thresholds(e.g.managementtargets,benchmarks,orecologicallimits)arespecifiedagainstwhichcumulativechangeandthesignificanceofeffectscanbeassessed

Prospectiveanalysis i) Thetimescaleofcumulativeeffectspredictionsissufficienttocapturethescopeofimpactsassociatedwiththelifecycleofprojectsinquestion

ii) Thereissufficientanalysis/evidencetosupportconclusionsaboutpotentialcumulativeeffects

iii) Thetoolsandtechniquesusedarecapableofcapturingcumulativeeffectspathwaysandtheuncertaintiesoffuturedevelopments

iv) TrendsandlinkagesareestablishedbetweenVECconditionsanddisturbancesinthebaselineanalysisandusedtoinformpredictionsaboutcumulativeimpactsinthefuture

v) CumulativeeffectsanalysisiscentredonthetotaleffectsonVECsintheregionalenvironment,andabilitytowithstandfurtherstress

Management i) Isthesignificanceofcumulativeeffectsmeasuredagainstapastreferenceconditionandnotsimplythecurrent,cumulativeordisturbedconditionintheregion?

ii) Isthesignificanceofcumulativeeffectsadequatelydescribedand

35SimilarcomponentsandreviewquestionswereutilizedinboththeBipoleIIIandKeeyaskCEAreviews.

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justified(e.g.basedonregulatorythresholds,environmentalpolicies,expertevaluation,publicconcerns,etc.)andbasedonVECsustainability,definedbyadesiredorhealthyconditionorthreshold?

iii) Aretheincrementalimpactsoftheprojectsinquestionnot‘tradedoff’againstthesignificanceofallotherdisturbancesofactivitiesintheregion(i.e.minimizedormasked)?

iv) Aremitigationmeasuresidentifiedthathelpoffsetsignificantcumulativeenvironmentaleffects,andifso,isconsiderationisgiventomulti-stakeholdercollaborationtodevelopjointmanagementmeasures?

v) Isadaptivemanagementidentifiedforsignificantcumulativeeffectscontingentuponfuturedevelopmentsandimpactinteractions?

ThereviewcriteriaincorporatethebestavailablenationalguidanceforregionalstrategicenvironmentalassessmentthatwasavailableatthetimethattheRCEAwasperformed,includingprinciplesandstandardsforCEAthatarewellestablishedinthescientificliteratureandprofessionalguidancedocuments.ThereviewcriteriaforCEAarederivedfromanumberofsources,includingtheCumulativeEffectsAssessmentPractitioner’sGuide,publicallyavailablebooksandtechnicalguidanceongoodpracticesinCEAinCanada36,thetwoleadinginternationalscientificjournalsonenvironmentalassessment(EnvironmentalImpactAssessmentReviewandImpactAssessmentandProjectAppraisal),andselectguidancefromotherjurisdictions(e.g.BritishColumbia,Alberta)37.WealsoreferredtopreviousandmorerecentreviewsofCEApracticeinstrategicandprojectcontextsandthelessonsemerging38.TheinformationsourcesusedtoinformourreviewcriteriaareavailableinthepublicdomainthroughtheInternet,governmentandUniversitylibrariesandwouldhavebeenaccessibletoManitobaandManitobaHydro.Inundertakingourreview,weconsultedtherelevantchaptersandsupportingvolumesoftheRCEA(Table3).Whilewereviewedalmosttheentirefilingincludingthetermsofreferenceandtheintegratedsummaryreport,wereportselectivelyonthosesectionsmostrelevanttotheassessmentandcharacterizationofcumulativeeffects,andourreviewcriteria(i.e.relevantsubsectionsofPhaseIIPartsI,III,IV,V,andVI,theTermsofReferencefortheRCEA,andtheIntegratedSummaryReport).WedidnotreviewtechnicalAppendices.Inourreview,werelyprimarilyontheinformationprovidedinPhaseIIoftheRCEA,asthePhaseIreportissuedbyManitobaandManitobaHydrowasconsideredpreliminaryandincomplete.Table3.RCEAmaterialsreviewedTermsofReference

Phase1PartI.IntroductionandApproachPartII.HistoryofHydroelectricDevelopmentintheRegionofInterestPartIII.People

36Seeforexample:BeanlandsandDuinker1983;Hegmannetal.1999;Noble2010;CEAA2014 37Seeforexample:AlbertaEnvironmentn.d.;ForestPracticesBoard2011 38Seeforexample:Baxteretal.2001;CanterandRoss2010;GunnandNoble2011

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PartIV.PhysicalEnvironmentPartV.WaterandLandPhase2PartI.IntroductionandApproachPartII.HistoryofHydroelectricDevelopmentintheRegionofInterestPartIII.People

• 3.1Introduction(all)• 3.2StudyScope,ApproachandMethodology(all)• 3.3RegionalProfile(all—Introduction,KeyHistoricalEventsaswellasPopulation,EconomicandOther

Socio-EconomicIndicatorTrendsintheRCEARegionofInterest)• 3.4SummaryofHydroelectricEffectsonPeople,andKeyMitigation,RemediationandCompensation

MeasuresintheRegionofInterest(all)• 3.5SummaryofCommunityInformation(Overview,StructureoftheChapter,andContextfortheChapter)

PartIV.PhysicalEnvironment• 4.1IntroductionandBackground(all)• 4.2EnvironmentalSetting(all-ClimateandGeophysicalLandscape)• 4.3WaterRegime(Introduction,ApproachandMethodsandtheTwelveHydraulicZonesInfluencedbyLake

WinnipegRegulationandChurchillRiverDiversion)• 4.4ErosionandSedimentation(all—IntroductionandDescriptionofErosionandSedimentationProcesses

intheTwelveHydraulicZones)PartV.Water

• 5.1IntroductionandBackground(all)• 5.2WaterQuality(Introduction,allsectionsonCumulativeEffectsofHydroelectricDevelopmentonWater

Quality,SummaryofEffectsofHydroelectricDevelopmentintheRegionofInterestonWaterQuality)• 5.3FishCommunity(Introduction,allsectionsonCumulativeEffectsofHydroelectricDevelopmentonthe

FishCommunity,SummaryofEffectsofHydroelectricDevelopmentintheRegionofInterestonFishCommunity)

• 5.4LakeSturgeon(Introduction,allsectionsonCumulativeEffectsofHydroelectricDevelopmentonLakeSturgeon,SummaryofEffectsofHydroelectricDevelopmentintheRegionofInterestonLakeSturgeon)

• 5.5MercuryinFish(Introduction,allsectionsonCumulativeEffectsofHydroelectricDevelopmentonFishMercury,SummaryofEffectsofHydroelectricDevelopmentintheRegionofInterestonFishMercuryConcentrations)

• 5.6FishQuality(Introduction,allsectionsonCumulativeEffectsofHydroelectricDevelopmentonFishQuality,SummaryofEffectsofHydroelectricDevelopmentintheRegionofInterestonFishQuality)

• 5.7Seals(Introduction,allsectionsonCumulativeEffectsofHydroelectricDevelopmentonSeals,SummaryofEffectsofHydroelectricDevelopmentintheRegionofInterestonSeals)

• 5.8Beluga(Introduction,allsectionsonCumulativeEffectsofHydroelectricDevelopmentonBeluga,SummaryofEffectsofHydroelectricDevelopment)

PartVI.Land• 6.1IntroductionandBackground(all)• 6.2Intactness(Introduction,SummaryofEffectsofHydroelectricDevelopmentintheRegionofIntereston

Intactness)• 6.3TerrestrialHabitat(Introduction,SummaryofEffectsofHydroelectricDevelopmentintheRegionof

InterestonTerrestrialHabitat)• 6.4Waterfowl(Introduction,EffectsofHydroelectricDevelopmentintheRegionofInterestonWaterfowl)• 6.5ColonialWaterbirds(Introduction,EffectsofHydroelectricDevelopmentintheRegionofIntereston

ColonialWaterbirds)• 6.6AquaticFurbearers(Introduction,EffectsofHydroelectricDevelopmentintheRegionofIntereston

AquaticFurbearers)• 6.7Barren-groundCaribou(Introduction,CumulativeEffectsofHydroDevelopment,Effectsof

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HydroelectricDevelopmentintheRegionofInterestonBarren-groundCaribou)• 6.8CoastalCaribou(Introduction,CumulativeEffectsofHydroDevelopment,EffectsofHydroelectric

DevelopmentintheRegionofInterestonCoastalCaribou)• 6.9BorealWoodlandCaribou(Introduction,CumulativeEffectsofHydroDevelopmentonBorealWoodland

Caribou,EffectsofHydroelectricDevelopmentintheRegionofInterestonBorealWoodlandCaribou)• 6.10Moose(Introduction,EffectsofHydroelectricDevelopmentintheRegionofInterestonMoose)• 6.11PolarBear(Introduction,EffectsofHydroelectricDevelopmentintheRegionofInterestonPolar

Bears)RegionalCumulativeEffectsAssessmentforHydroelectricDevelopmentsontheChurchill,BurntwoodandNelsonRiverSystems:IntegratedSummaryReport

4.0SYNTHESISOFKEYFINDINGSANDOBSERVATIONSTheTermsofReferencefortheManitobaandManitobaHydroRCEAdidnotexplicitlycallforastrategicassessment,thustheRCEAisnotastrategicinnature.WhileitwouldnotbeappropriatetocriticizethelackofstrategicelementsintheRCEAgiventheTermsofReference,westronglysuggestthatunlesstheRCEAisrevisitedasastrategicexercisemuchofthepotentialvalue-addedoftheRCEAwillbelosttothecitizensofManitoba.WhiletheRCEAdoesofferastrongretrospectiveanalysisofhistoricalimpactstoselectlandandwaterRegionalStudyComponents(RSCs)39,itcouldoffersomuchmore:notintermsofpagesadded,butintermsofperspectiveadded.WeelaboratefurtheronthisinSec.4.3.2.Overall,weconcludethattheManitobaandManitobaHydroRCEAfallsshortofgoodpracticeCEA.GoodpracticeCEA,whetherinaproject-basedorregionalcontext,involvesfourbasicstages:scoping,retrospectiveanalysis,prospectiveanalysis,andmanagement.Withrespecttoscoping,manyexpectedelementsofgoodpracticearepresentforallpartsofthefiling(People,PhysicalEnvironment,LandandWater),includingadaptingthegeographicscaleofanalysistosuitthenatureofeachRSC.RSCsselectedforretrospectiveanalysesalsoseemappropriatelyscopedgiventhecontextofassessingtheimpactsofahydropowercomplex.However,itisimpossibletoconcludewhethertheRSClistiscompleteandappropriateuntilregionalstakeholderspublicallyvetit.AlthoughwedidobservethatmanyexpectedelementsofgoodpracticeretrospectiveanalysiswerepresentfortheLandandWaterPartsofthefiling(lesssoforthePhysicalEnvironmentandPeoplePartsofthefiling),attentiontoprospectiveanalysiswasabsentthroughoutallPartsofthefiling.Impactmanagementwasaddressedonlytotheextentthatanumberofexistingregionalmonitoringprogramswerementioned.Withoutprospectiveanalysistohelpassessandpredictthepossibleenvironmentalchangesthatcouldoccurgivenfuturedevelopment,weconcludethattheprimaryvalueoftheRCEAisasaregionalbaselinestudy.Further,publicengagementthrougheverystageof

39 Regional study components are defined in the report as “Topics that have been selected to focus the

assessment, represent the overall effects of hydroelectric developments within the Region of Interest and reflect key ecological and social concerns, or are of key importance to the people living in the area” (Phase 2, Part1, p. XXV).

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anyenvironmentalassessmentisstandardofpracticeacceptedinCanadaandinternationally,andhasbeensincethe1970s:regardless,theRCEAdidnotinvolveanypublicengagementinscoping,inperformingtheretrospectiveanalysis,orindiscussingthesignificanceofidentifiedregionalimpacts.Belowweprovideanoverviewofourfindingsandconclusions.OurdetailedreviewoftheRCEAcanbefoundintheAppendix,andincludesreferencetospecificsectionsoftheRCEAaswellaskeyevidencetosupportourfindings.4.1Whatwasdonereasonablywell?

• TheRCEAaddressesbothenvironmentalandsocio-economiceffects.PartIIIPeopleprovidesaverydetailedhistoricalaccountofthesocio-economiceffectsofhydrodevelopmentintheROI,whilePartIVPhysicalEnvironmentgivesanelaboratecharacterizationofthephysicalenvironmentalimpactsonthehydrauliczonesidentified—bothsectionsareusedtosupportLandandWaterwhicharethestrongestPartsofPhaseIIintermsofretrospectiveanalysis.

• TheRCEAconsistentlyreportschangesandtrendsovertimefortheRSCsexaminedinPartIIIPeople,PartIVPhysicalEnvironment,PartVWater,andPartVILand,providingbothquantitativeandqualitativedescriptions.However,thiseffortisoftensignificantlyconfoundedbydatalimitationsincludinglackofpre-developmentdata,lackofdatainthedevelopmentperiod,anddatathatareincongruentandnotabletobecompared.

• TheRCEAconsistentlyattemptstosummarizethecumulativeimpacttoeachRSCfromthe

pre-developmentperiodthroughtotheyear2013andassesstheoverallhealthoftheselectedRSCswithintheregionalecosystem,whileclearlyidentifyinginformationsourcesandacknowledgingdatalimitations.

• TheRCEAconsistentlyprovidesahigh-leveloverviewofpredominantpathwaysofeffectsin

theformofnetworkdiagramsthatillustratedrivers,pathways,andeffectsforeachselectedRSCforPhysicalEnvironment,Land,andWater(anacceptedCEAmethod).OthersectorsofdevelopmentcontributingstresstoeachRSCintheregionarealsoidentifiedinthenetworkanalysis.

• TheRCEAcomparespre-developmentconditionstoconditionsduringthedevelopment

periodinmanyinstanceswheredataisavailable,forallParts:People,PhysicalEnvironment,LandandWater.

• TheRCEAcompareson-site/on-systemconditionswithoff-site/off-systemconditionsinmany

instanceswheredataisavailableforPartVWaterandPartVILand.

• ThespatialscopeofanalysisisadjustedtosuiteachRSC.Typically,asub-regional(sometimeslocationspecific)approachtoassessingeffectsisutilized(e.g.thehydrauliczonesidentifiedinPartIVPhysicalEnvironment),andattimestheboundaryofanalysisisextendedbeyond

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theROItocapturetheextentofmigratoryhabitat,forexample.

• TheRCEAconsistentlyusesindicators,metrics,andbenchmarkstoassessimpactstoPartVWaterandPartVILandRSCs.However,thisisnotevidentinPartIIIPeopleorPartIVPhysicalEnvironment.

• TheRCEAidentifiesdriverandresponseindicatorstofacilitateaclearerpictureoftheoverall

healthofeachRSCinPartIVPhysicalEnvironment,PartVWaterandPartVILand.Inourviewthisisauseful,innovativepractice.

4.2Whereareimprovementsneeded?

• ScopingtheRCEAasaretrospectiveexerciseratherthanastrategicexerciserepresentsamissedopportunityinlightoftheCEC’spaststatementsidentifyingtheneedforastrategicassessmentofcumulativeeffectsintheregion.

• ThescopeofprojectsintheRCEARegionofInterest(ROI)includestheKeeyaskgenerationproject.However,analysisofimpactsintheRCEAisstrictlyconfinedtoanhistoricalanalysisofpastimpactsbasedonrecordsandmonitoringdatapublishedpreviousto2013.WefailtoseehowthefutureimpactsoftheKeeyaskprojecttotheNelsonRiversystemandestuary,whichhasyettobecompleted,canthereforehavebeenadequatelycapturedinaretrospectiveanalysis.

• RegionalstakeholderswerenotengagedinthedevelopmentoftheRCEA,exceptindirectlythroughreviewofhistoricaltranscriptsandreports,thoughthisisacoreprincipleofgoodpracticeforanyassessmentprocessinCanadaandworldwide.

• ThelistofRSCschosenforthestudyisfairlylimited,withmanywildlifespeciesaffectedbyhydroelectricdevelopmentnotincludedonthelist.ItispossiblethatcertainimportantRSCshavenotbeencaptured,asimpactsarelikelytobeexpressedsooneratotherlevelsofecosystemorganizationthantheyareatthespecieslevel40.SomeRSCscouldcorrespondwithkeyecosystemservices.Forexample,biodiversityunderliesallecosystemservicesandcouldconstituteanRSC.”Supporting”ecosystemservicesincludenutrientcycling,soilformation,primaryproduction;”provisioning”ecosystemservicesincludefoodsupply(foodweb),freshwater,woodandfibre,fuel;“regulating”ecosystemservicesincludeclimateregulation,floodregulation,diseaseregulation,waterpurification;“cultural”ecosystemservicesincludeaesthetic,spiritual,educational,andrecreationalservices.UntilthelistofRSCshasbeenpublicallyandindependentlyvetted,itisnotpossibletodetermineifthelistiscompleteorappropriate.

• TheRCEAdoesnotincludeprospectiveanalysis,whichisacorecomponentofgoodpractice 40Treweek1999

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CEA.TheTermsofReferenceprecludedprospectiveanalysisinspiteofthefactthatamajorquestionregardingthefuturewelfareoftheenvironmentandcommunitiesinnorthernManitobaisthepotentialformoredams;particularly,whetherornottosanctiontheConawapageneratingstationandothersontheNelsonRiversystem.Manitobahassignificantundevelopedhydropotentialremaininginthenorthandhasalreadyinvestedabout$380millionontheConawapaproject41.

• Ingeneral,saveforafewinstances,theuseofenvironmentalthresholdsthatcouldhelp

assessthesignificanceofhistoricalimpactsonRSCsisavoidedintheRCEA.InPartVWaterandPartVILand,theshorttimelineoftheRSEAwasoftencitedasthereasonthresholdscouldnotbedeveloped.ThereasoncitedinPartIIIPeopleis“lackofsocio-economicanddemographic-specificdatapre-1980s”(PhaseII,PartIII,p.3.3-33),andinPartIVPhysicalEnvironmentitis“absenceofhigh-quality,long-termrecordswithgoodspatialcoverage”(PhaseII,PartIV,p.4.2-5).UseofthresholdsisacceptedasgoodpracticeinCEA.

• Oneofthebiggestopportunitiesinaregionalscaleassessmentistoidentifyopportunities

andpartnershipsforcoordinatedmitigationandmanagementofregionalimpacts.TheRCEAdoesnotaddressthemanagementphaseofCEAbeyondreferencingsomeoftheestablishedprogramsintheregion.Atminimum,providingalistofpastandcurrentmonitoringandremediationprogramsandinitiativesintheRCEAwouldhelptoidentifystrengths,weaknesses,gaps,andopportunitiestostrengthenregionalimpactmanagement.

• Thedominantfocusonthedirect,additiveeffectsofhydroelectricdevelopmentoneach

environmentalcomponentisoneoftheweaknessesoftheRCEA.Arguably,asynergisticapproachlinkingmultiplestressorstoeachcomponentinbothquantitativeandqualitativetermsismorelikelytoyieldusefulperspectiveforansweringquestionsabouttotalimpactsofdevelopmentsonthesocialandbiophysicalenvironment.Withoutsufficientanddeliberateeffortatcharacterizingthesynergisticimpactsofnaturalandhumanperturbations(includinghydro)oneachVEC,atrueunderstandingofcumulativeeffectscannotbeachieved.TheleastthatcouldbedoneistoidentifywheresynergisticinteractionsmightbeaffectingLandandWaterRSCs.TheRCEAmakesacoupleofattemptstodothis,andtheeffortshouldbeexpanded.

• ItisapparentintheRCEAthatthetotalstressoncertainsub-regionsoftheROIismuch

greaterthanothers(thesub-region“Area2”–theNelsonRiverandestuary–beingthemoststressed),buttheRCEAdoesnotattempttoqualifythetotal,cumulativestressplacedonanygivensub-region.

• ThedesignatedROIdoesnotincludeasignificant(southern)portionoftheexistingBipoleI

andIItransmissionline,nordoesitincludetheimminentBipoleIIItransmissionline.Ingeneral,notenoughattentionisgiventotheeffectsoftransmissionlineconstruction,

41ManitobaHydro2017,Tab3,pg.18

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clearing,andvegetationmaintenanceenmasseintheROI,particularlyifnon-selectivevegetationclearingtechniquesarecommon(e.g.mowing).WhiletheintactnessanalysisinPartVILandconcludesthattheROIremainsreasonablyintact,theeffectsofasinglemajortransmissionright-of-way(suchastheBipoleIandIIcorridor,andtheBipoleIIIcorridor)canbeseriousandpersistenttolocalwildlifeifnotcarefullymitigated42.

• TheRCEAavoidstheissueofsignificancealtogether.Scientificbenchmarksareconsistently

usedtogaugetheseriousnessofnotedcumulativeeffectstoRSCsinPartVWaterandPartVILand,butthesocietalsignificanceofthecumulativeeffectsthroughouttheRCEAisnotaddressed.AssigningsignificancetotheimpactscausedbyhydropowerdevelopmentinnorthernManitobaisnotmerelyascientificexercise.Significanceisdynamic,contextual,political,andultimatelyajudgmentcall:scientistsevaluatesignificancedifferentlyfromoneanotherandfromlocalcommunities43.Ifathresholdhasbeendeemedcrossed,anyfutureimpactonanRSCmustbeconsideredsignificant.

• Thereisinconsistencyintheapproachtakentotheretrospectiveanalysiswhencomparing

PartsIIIandIV(PeopleandPhysicalEnvironment)toPartsVandVI(WaterandLand).WhilemanydefensibleconclusionsaredrawnwithrespecttothecumulativeeffectsofhydroelectricdevelopmentsonWaterandLand,theinformation-provisionapproachthatisadoptedforthePeopleandPhysicalEnvironmentsectionsdoesnotallowforthesamekindsofconclusionstobedrawn.Anovertfocusondescriptionofsocialconditionsandthephysicalsettingwithoutconsiderationtoquantifyingorqualifyingthemagnitudeandpathwaysofcombinedperturbations(hydroandotherdevelopments)onPeopleandPhysicalEnvironmentRSCsisaslipperyslopetowarddiminishingthesubstantivegoalsofaRCEA.

• AttimesinPartVILand,thecumulativeimpactofhydrodevelopmentonanRSCisqualified

relativetotheimpactattributabletootherdevelopments,anddeemedproportionatelyless:thisiswrong-headed,asitisthetotalimpactofallactivitiesonanRSCthatisimportant.Inotherwords,theincrementalimpactsofhydroelectricdevelopmentare‘traded-off’(i.e.minimized)againstthesignificanceofotherdisturbancesintheregion;anerrorthatwasnotedinboththeBipoleIIIandKeeyaskCEAreviews.

4.3KeyrecommendationstoimprovetheManitobaandManitobaHydroRCEAinitiativeTheabovereviewdetailsanumberofconcernsaboutManitobaandManitobaHydro’sapproachtoRCEAforhydroelectricdevelopmentsontheChurchill,BurntwoodandNelsonRiverSystems.Basedonthese,wesuggestanumberofimprovementstheymaywishtoconsider: 42Harriman2000 43Noble2015

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4.3.1RecommendationsspecifictotheRCEAfiling

i) WerecommendthatthepurposeoftheRCEAbeclearlystated.ItisnotcurrentlyspecifiedastowhethertheRCEAisintendedasaresourcetoinformaprovincialenergypolicy;awatershedprotectionplan;aregionallanduseplan;futureprojectimpactassessments,approvals,orconditions;orafuturestrategicassessmentexercise.WithoutaclearstatementofthetacticalpurposeoftheRCEA,itisdifficulttoconceptualizetheinfluenceofthiswork,itsvalueasaresource,andtowhom.

ii) WerecommendthattheRSClistbepublicallyandindependentlyvetted.

iii) WerecommendthattheRCEAincludeprospectiveanalysis,particularlyrelatedtothe

potentialcumulativeeffectsthatwouldbeinducedbyadditionoftheKeeyaskandConawapagenerationprojectstotheNelsonRiversystemandestuary.

iv) WerecommendthatalloftheBipoleIIItransmissionlinebeincludedaspartoftheROI,and

thatfurtheranalysisofthecumulativeeffectsoftransmissionlineconstruction,clearing,andvegetationmaintenanceenmasseintheROIisundertaken,particularlywithrespecttowildlifehabitatandriparianzonedegradation.

v) WerecommendindependentscientificreviewoftheuseofthresholdsintheRCEAto

determinewhethertheirnearabsenceisjustified.WefurtherrecommendthatManitobaandManitobaHydroinvestthetimeandresourcesnecessarytodevelopscientificenvironmentalthresholdsappropriatetoassistinfutureenvironmentalassessmentsinnorthernManitoba.

vi) Werecommendthatareasonableattemptbemadetocommunicateanysynergisticeffects

intheROIaffectingRSCs,aswellasthetotalcumulativeeffectsonRSCsonanarea-by-areabasis,particularlyfortheNelsonRiversystemandestuaryandothersub-regionsoftheROIexperiencingthegreatesttotallevelsofstress.

vii) TheRCEAuseslinkagediagramstoillustratedrivers,pathways,andeffectsforeachRSCfor

PartVWaterandPartVILand.OtherfactorsinfluencingimpactsonRSCsarenamedineachlinkagediagram.WerecommendamoreexplicitdepictionoftheotherdevelopmentstakenintoaccountintheRCEAanalysis,whenpossible.

viii) WerecommendstakeholderengagementintheRCEAinitiative,particularlytoassistin

scopingRSCsanddeterminingimpactsignificance.WefurtherrecommendthattheMinisterofEnvironmentreinstatethefullpublichearingontheRCEAthatwasoriginallyplanned.ThiswouldhelpimmenselytomodernizeandlegitimizetheRCEAprocessandreport.

ix) WerecommendthattheRCEAreportincludeacompletelistofpastandcurrentmonitoring

andremediationprogramsandinitiativesintheRCEAtofacilitateagapanalysis.Wefurther

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recommendthattheresultsoftheRCEAshouldinformthedevelopmentofancomprehensiveregionalmonitoringandmanagementplanthatincludespublic,industry,andIndigenouspartnershipsasappropriate,andisbasedoncleararticulationofthresholds,indicators,benchmarks,andactionsforachievingormaintainingsustainabilityofeachRSC.

x) WerecommendthatPartIIIPeopleandPartIVPhysicalEnvironmentbedevelopedbeyondaninformation-provisionapproachtoalsoincluderetrospectiveandprospectiveanalysisofchangetrendsandtheirsignificance.

4.3.2RecommendationsforastrategicRCEAinnorthernManitobaTheMinisterofEnvironmentandtheCEChaverequestedassistanceinidentifyingnextstepsfortheRCEA44.TheRCEAisaforward-lookingdocumentandprocess,andcanbetransformedtoachievetheoriginalintentofCEC’sadviceintheWuskwatimhearing,andNobleandGunn’sadvicetoManitobaHydroduringtheBipoleIIIandKeeyaskprojecthearings.WefeeltransformingtheRCEAfromnon-strategictostrategicisessentialinordertoreachitsfullestpotentialinstrengtheningManitoba’senvironment,economy,andpeople.

i) WerecommendthattheRCEAinitiativeberevisitedasastrategicexercisethatisobjectives-led,includesevaluationofalternativedevelopmentscenarios,andresultsintheselectionofapreferredalternativethatdetailsthedesirednatureandpaceofdevelopmentinnorthernManitobainthefuture.“Thereviewofalternativesisthekeysteptomakeregionalimpactassessmentnotjustaninformationgatheringtoolaboutpastandpresentbutalsoamanagementtooltoaddressthefuture”45.

ii) WefurtherrecommendthattheresultsofastrategicRCEAbeusedtoinformfuturehydroelectricdevelopmentprojectapprovalsinnorthernManitoba,includingtheConawapaGeneratingStationandassociatedinfrastructure,aswellasrelatedregionalpolicyandplanningprocessessuchGrowingOutcomesinWatersheds(GROW)andManitoba’sProvincialCleanEnergyStrategy.

iii) WerecommendthattheopportunitytodesignatetheRCEAROIasoneoftheidentifiable

pilotprojectsforregionalimpactassessmentinCanadabeexplored,asdescribedinBuildingCommonGround:ANewVisionforImpactAssessmentinCanada,thefinalreportoftheExpertPanelfortheReviewofEnvironmentalAssessmentProcesses46.WerecommendthattheManitobaGovernmentusesuchanopportunitytoundertakea“northernvision”projecttohelpestablishthegoalsandobjectivesofastrategicRCEA.

44http://www.gov.mb.ca/sd/eal/registries/5714hydro/revised_cec_t_of_r2017-03-02_v1.pdf 45Gelinas,etal.2017 46Gelinasetal.2017,pg.79,80

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APPENDIX:DETAILEDANALYSISOFTHERCEAFILINGA.CoreandmethodologicalprinciplesTables1and2summarizetheextenttowhichtheRegionalCumulativeEffectsAssessment(RCEA)currentlyconformstothecoreandmethodologicalprinciplesforRegionalStrategicEnvironmentalAssessmentassetforthbytheCanadianCouncilofMinistersoftheEnvironment(CCME).ThisisintendedasalearningtoolfortheConsumers’AssociationofCanada(CAC)(Manitobachapter)andmaybeviewedashelpfulinformationbytheManitobaCleanEnvironmentCommission(CEC),ManitobaConservationandWaterStewardship,andManitobaHydro.Table1.ConformitytoCCMERegionalStrategicEnvironmentalAssessmentCorePrinciplesCorePrinciplesStrategic Notyet.Theexerciseshouldbe‘objectives-led’.Atpresentthegoalsandobjectivesof

theRCEAarenotexplicitlystatedandthereisnoclear,publiclyendorsedvisionforthefutureoftheRegionofInterest(ROI).

Futures-oriented Notyet.TheRCEAiscurrentlyretrospectiveinnatureonly,withnoprospectiveanalysis,designationofstrategicalternativesfordevelopment,orassessmentofthelikelycumulativeeffectsofthose.

Earlycommencement TheRCEAwascompletedapproximately60yearsafterthecommencementofhydroelectricdevelopmentinnorthernManitoba.However,atleasthalfofthecapacityforhydroelectricpowerintheprovincehasyettobedeveloped,withmoregeneratingstationsbeingconsideredforfuturedevelopment—sixplannedfortheNelsonRiver(fivecurrently),threemorereservoirsontheBurntwood(onecurrently),andtwonewreservoirsplannedfortheUpperChurchillRiver(nonetherecurrently).Thisisaverysignificantamountoffurtherdevelopmenttoaregionthathasalreadybeenacknowledgedassignificantlyaltered.Itisstill‘early’ifoneconsidersthedevelopmentthatstillmaycomeinnorthernManitoba.IntheshorttermthereisopportunitytoinfluencedecisionsaboutthefutureoftheConawapaproject.Inaddition,thereisopportunitytoinformandinfluencestrategicpoliciesandplanssuchasGrowingOurWatershedsandtheProvincialCleanEnergyPlan.

Cumulativeeffectsfocused Yes.However,prospectiveanalysisofstrategicalternativesfortheregionisrecommended.

Multi-tiered Notyet.Thereisnodeliberateconnectionwithproject-basedenvironmentalimpactassessmentidentified,noranyconnectionto‘upstream’policyorplanningdecisionsaffectingtheRegionofInterest(ROI).

Multi-scaled Yes.ScaleofanalysisintheretrospectiveanalysisisadjustedtosuiteachRegionalStudyComponent(RSC).

Participatory Notyet.TheRCEAprocessshouldmeaningfullyengageaffectednortherncommunitiesandotherstakeholdersin(atminimum)thetasksofscoping,creationandanalysisofalternativedevelopmentscenarios,significancedetermination,impactmitigationandmonitoringstrategiesandactivities,adaptivefeedback.

Opportunistic Notyet.Doesnotidentifyopportunitiestoenhanceinstitutionalpoliciesorarrangements,forexample.

Adaptive Notyet.AlthoughacomprehensivelistofpastandcurrentremediationandcompensationeffortsbyManitobaHydroareidentified,nochangestoexistingmanagement,monitoringplansintheregionaresuggestedorintendedasyet.

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TheRCEAwasnotdesignedasastrategicexercise.Rather,theapproachtakenisthatofaretrospectivedescriptionofpastcumulativeeffectsintheregion.ManitobaConservationandWaterStewardshipandManitobaHydroagreedtoTermsofReferencefortheRCEAinMay,2014.InthemitisstatedthatManitobaandManitobaHydrobelievethebestoptiontoaddressRecommendation13.2,madebytheCleanEnvironmentCommission(CEC)followingtheKeeyaskpublichearing,isthedevelopmentof[aRCEAdocument]thatis“retrospectiveinnature”(p.1)and“describesenvironmentalchangeovertimeasaresultofprevioushydrodevelopment,includingimpacts,mitigationmeasures,communityissues,compensationandthecurrentqualityoftheenvironment”(p.3).TheRCEAis“basedonareviewandsynthesisofpastandongoingstudiesandmonitoringprograms”(p.3).AlthoughtheCECdoesnotspecificallyaskforastrategicassessmentinBipoleIIIRecommendation13.2,previouscallsforstrategicassessmentintheregionhavebeenregistered(e.g.CEC’s2004Wuskwatimrecommendation;GunnandNoble’s2012BipoleIIIrecommendation).ThepositioningoftheRCEAasretrospective,descriptiveexercisepre-empts,orforestalls,asignificantopportunitytopublicallydebatealternativedevelopmentscenariosandidentifyapreferredfuturedevelopmentpathfornorthernManitoba.Italsoprecludesstipulatingthedesirednatureandpaceofdevelopmentinthefutureand/orestablishingcriteriatoevaluatetheacceptabilityofproposedfutureprojects.ThetermsofreferencedonotstatethepurposeforwhichtheRCEAisintendedotherthanitwillserve“asaresource”(p.5).ItisnotspecifiedwhethertheRCEAwouldbeusedasaresourcetoperhapsinformtheManitobaprovincialCleanEnergystrategy,aregionalsustainabledevelopmentplan(e.g.GrowingOurWatershedsinitiative),futureprojectimpactassessmentapprovalsorconditions(e.g.Conawapa),orafutureregionalstrategicassessmentexercise.WithoutaclearstatementofthetacticalpurposeoftheRCEA,itisdifficulttoconceptualizetheinfluenceofthiswork,itsvalueasaresource,andtowhom.Thepreviouscallforacollaborativeapproachtoassessingthecumulativeeffectsofpast,present,andfuturedevelopmentinnorthernManitobahasbeenoverlookedaswell(specificallymentionedintheCEC’s2004WuskwatimrecommendationandimpliedinGunnandNoble’s2012BipoleIIIrecommendation).TheamendedtermsofreferencefortheRCEAhavegreatlyreducedopportunityformeaningfulparticipation,andface-to-faceparticipationfromnorthernresidents–whichwasestablishedasthestandardforconsultationasearlyastheBergerInquiryin1974,whenThomasBergermodelledgoodpracticeforworkingwithIndigenouscommunitiesandmeaningfulengagementinenvironmentalimpactassessment47.Incumulativeeffectsassessment(CEA),publicinputhasbeenshowntobeespeciallyimportantwhenselectingthevaluedcomponentsforstudy48.ThereappearstohavebeennoconsultationwiththepublicorIndigenouscommunitiesinthetasksofscopingRegionalStudyComponents(RSCs);creationandanalysisofalternativedevelopmentscenarios;significancedetermination;impactmitigationandmonitoringstrategiesandactivities;orplanstointegrateadaptivefeedback.ThelistofRSCsappearstohavebeendeterminedbyMBHydroandManitobaConservationandWaterStewardshipactingalone.Aswell,Sections3.5.4through3.5.19ofPhaseII,PartIIIPeople,arecurrentlymissingfromtheRCEAatpresent:

47MulvihillandBaker2001;Gibson2013 48OlagunjuandGunn2013

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“Communitieswillhavetheopportunitytoreviewandcommentontheirsummaries[ofcumulativeeffectsofdevelopmentonthem]beforetheyaremadepublic.ThisreviewandcommentwilloccurthroughouttheRCEAPublicOutreachProgrambeingundertakenbytheCEC”(PhaseII,PartIII,p.3.5-9).Atthetimeofthisreport,plansforpublicconsultationhavebeengreatlyreducedaspertheamendedTermsofReferenceandthesectionsarestillincomplete.CurrentstrengthsoftheRCEAfromastrategicassessmentstandpointincludethatitiscumulativeeffectsfocused,anditismulti-scaled.Thatbeingsaid,theretrospectiveanalysisofcumulativeeffectstoWaterandLandRSCsisstrongerthanthatforPeople.ConsiderableworkremainstobedonetoadequatelycharacterizecumulativeimpactstoaffectedIndigenouscommunities,andaswell,analysisofsynergisticandindirectenvironmentaleffectstoWaterandLandRSCsisratherweakintheRCEAatpresent.TherearewesternscientificandIndigenoustraditionalknowledgedisparitiesofopinionregardingthecumulativeeffectstocertainWaterandLandRSCs,thetotalstressonsub-regionsandtheROIasawholehasnotbeencharacterizesasyet,andthesignificanceofcumulativeeffectsintheROIhasnotbeenevaluated.Alloftheseobservationsaredescribedinmoredetailinthesectionsbelow.Table2.ConformitytoCCMERegionalStrategicEnvironmentalAssessmentMethodologicalPrinciplesMethodologicalPrinciplesIntegrated Notyet.Focusedonalternatives Notyet.RegionalVEC-based Yes,theRSCsselectedappeartobesensitivetotheregionalcontext(e.g.water

quality,fishcommunity)thoughtheirnumbersaresmallandtheirappropriatenesshasnotbeenpublicallyorindependentlyvetted.Untiltheyare,itwillremainunclearastowhetherthesearethe‘only’or’best’RSCstofocuson.

Interdisciplinary Notyet.AssessmentisnotinterdisciplinaryinthatitdoesnotevaluatethestatusofanyRSCbasedonintegratedscientificperspectivesfromvariousbranchesofknowledge.HowevertheRCEAiscross-disciplinaryinthattherearevariouskindsofscientificanalysisprovided.

Structuredandsystematic Yes,inthesensethattheRCEAsystematicallyexaminesexistinginformation,evaluatesnewinformation,looksatchangesinindicatorsovertime,andsummarizeschangeforRSCsovertheperiodofdevelopmenttotheextentpossiblegivendatalimitations.

CurrentstrengthsoftheRCEAwithrespecttothemethodologicalprinciplessetforthbytheCanadianCouncilofMinistersofEnvironment(CCME)includethatitisregionalVEC-based,inthatthecurrentRSClistdoesincludespeciesofnotedconcernandimportantintheROI,andithasadoptedastructuredandsystematicapproachtotheretrospectiveanalysis.Tobecomeastrategicassessment,theRCEAwouldneedtobeintegratedwithotherregionalpolicyandplanninginitiativessuchthatthereisamutuallyreinforcingrelationship;itwouldneedtoadoptandprospectivelyassessthecumulativeeffectsofalternativedevelopmentscenariosinpreparationtoselectadesiredfuturepathforward;andfinally,theinterdisciplinaryaspectsofcumulativeeffectsanalysiswouldneedtobeimproved.Atpresentamulti-disciplinaryapproachisevidentintheretrospectiveanalysis,buttoexploresynergistsandtotalimpactstotheregion,aninterdisciplinaryapproachto

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evaluatingtheevidenceiscritical.Forexample,tobetterunderstandthecumulativeeffectstofishquality,forwhich(itisclaimedintheRCEA)thereisnodirectscientificlinkage,thenotedindirectlinkagesmustbeexplored–andifaninterdisciplinaryteamdoesthis,thecumulativeeffectsmightbecomemuchmorereadilyapparent.B.MethodologicalapproachWithrespecttothephasesofabasic,step-wiseprocessestablishedforRegionalStrategicEnvironmentalAssessment49,theRCEAismissingmanykeycomponents.Table3brieflysummarizeswhichstepshavebeenaddressed,andwhichareoutstanding.Table3.ConformitytotheBasicStep-WiseProcessforRegionalStrategicEnvironmentalAssessmentPre-AssessmentDevelopareferenceframework

DoesprovideandconformtoaTermsofReference,thoughTermsofReferencearenon-strategicandtheamendedTermsofReferencegreatlyreduceopportunitiesforpublicengagement.

Scopetheregionalbaseline Yes.ThisisdonereasonablywellwiththecaveatthattherearemanydatagapsthatneedtobeaddressedthroughadditionalresearchintheROI.ThereisastrongbasisforprospectiveanalysisformanyoftheRSCsthatareusedintheRCEAalthoughthatlistshouldbepublicallyandindependentlyvetted,andpossiblyexpanded.

Identifyregionalstressorsandtrends

Doesidentifyhydroelectricdevelopmentsdrivingregionalstressorsortrends,anddoesnameotherdevelopmentsaffectingtheconditionofRSCsintheROIvianetworkdiagrams(however,thisanalysisshouldbeperformedingreaterdepthifandwhenpossible).

AssessmentIdentifystrategicalternativesfortheregion

Notyet.Doesnotcurrentlyidentifystrategicdevelopmentalternativesfortheregion.

Assesscumulativeeffectsofeachalternative

Notyet.Doesattempttoassesscumulativeeffects,butnotforstrategicalternativesfortheregion,andnotprospectively.“TheRCEAisintendedtoretrospectivelyassess(qualitativelyand/orquantitatively)environmentalandsocio-economicchangeovertime”(PhaseII,PartI,pg.1.2-1).

Identifyapreferredstrategicalternative

Notyet.DoesnotidentifyapreferredstrategicalternativethatmeetsstatedgoalsandobjectivesfordevelopmentoftheROI.

Post-Assessment*Identifymitigationneedsandmanagementactions

Notyet.TheRCEAdoesprovideacomprehensiveoverviewofpastandcurrentmitigationandcompensationinitiativesinPartIIIPeople:“Whereapplicable,theassessmentincludesadiscussionofmitigationandremedialworksthathavebeenputinplacetoreduceeffectsandcompensationprovidesforeffectsthatcouldnotbemitigated”(PhaseII,PartI,pg.1.2-6).However,theRCEAdoesnotrevisitthosestrategiesbasedontheresultsofaprospectiveanalysisorsignificancedetermination.Ideallytheseactivitieswouldinformandinfluenceacoordinatedregionalmitigationandmonitoringplangoingforward.

Developafollow-upandmonitoringprogram

Notyet.

Implementthestrategy, Notyet.

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monitorandevaluateAdaptivefollow-upandreview

Notyet.Asthepreferredscenarioisimplemented,lessonslearnedshouldbeusedtoadaptdevelopmentinitiatives,programs,plans,andpoliciesfortheregiontoensuredesiredoutcomesareachieved.

*TheNextStepsdocumenttobeissuedfollowingpublicconsultationontheRCEAhasnotyetbeenissuedbyManitobaandManitobaHydro.Therefore,informationregardingfollow-upandmonitoring,includinganyintendedmitigationandmanagementactionsisunavailableatpresent.Lookingatthebasicstep-wisemethodologicalprocessthathasbeenestablishedforRSEA,theRCEAonlyaddressestwopre-assessmentphasesreasonablywellatpresentandtheyare:scopingtheregionalbaselineandidentifyingstressorsortrends.IftheRCEAweretobetransformedintoastrategicexercise,anewTermsofReferencewouldhavetobeissuedtoreflecttheactivitiesstilltocomeintheassessmentandpost-assessmentphasesoftheframework.Theassessmentphasewouldbecenteredaroundidentifyingandevaluatingstrategicalternativestothe‘statusquo’hydroelectricdevelopmentpath.Thepost-assessmentphasewouldbefocusedoncarefullyadaptingthecurrentmitigationandmonitoringregimeintheROIbasedonthesignificancedeterminationofidentifiedcumulativeimpactsintheROI.Theapproachwouldbecomeproactive,withtheRSC-sustainabilityatitsheart.Thatbeingsaid,compensationprogramssuchastheNorthernFloodAgreement(NFA)wouldnaturallyretaintheirimportanceandbemaintainedintothefuture.C.CumulativeeffectsassessmentThispartofourreviewprovidesadetailedanalysisofthecumulativeeffectsassessment(CEA)exerciseundertakeninrelevantsubsectionsofPartIIIPeople,PartIVPhysicalEnvironment,PartVWater,andPartVILandofthePhaseIIRCEAreport.ManitobaandManitobaHydro’sguidanceforundertakingCEAapparentlyconsistsofconsultingtheHegmannetal.(1999)guidance:wewereunabletofindreferencetoanyotherguidancewithintheRCEAreport(thoughitisaverylengthyreportanditispossibleweoverlookedadditionalsourcesthatwereconsulted).TheHegmannguidanceisstillrelevantandwidelyused,however,manyothergoodreferencemanualsarepublicallyavailable,including:

• CanadianCouncilofMinistersoftheEnvironment(CCME),2009.RegionalstrategicenvironmentalassessmentinCanada:Principlesandguidance.CanadianCouncilofMinistersoftheEnvironment,Winnipeg,MB.

• CanadianEnvironmentalAssessmentAgency,2014.TechnicalguidanceforassessingcumulativeeffectsundertheCanadianEnvironmentalAssessmentAct,2012.CEAA,ON,Canada.Availableathttp://www.ceaa-acee.gc.ca

• CanterLandSadlerB,1997.AtoolkitforeffectiveEIApractice–Reviewofmethodsand

perspectivesontheirapplication.InternationalAssociationforImpactAssessment,Fargo,ND,USA.

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• CouncilonEnvironmentalQuality(CEQ),1997.ConsideringcumulativeeffectsundertheNationalEnvironmentalPolicyAct.ExecutiveOfficeofthePresidentoftheUnitedStates,Washington,DC,USA.

• DuinkerP,BurbidgeE,BoardleyS,GreigL,2013.Scientificdimensionsofcumulativeeffects

assessment:towardimprovementsinguidanceforpractice.EnvironmentalReviews21(1):40-52.1dx.doi.org/10.1139/er-2012-0035.Availableathttp://www.nrcresearchpress.com/journal/er

• Duinker,PandGreigL,2007.Scenarioanalysisinenvironmentalimpactassessment:

Improvingexplorationsofthefuture.EnvironmentalImpactAssessmentReview27:206-219.doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2006.11.001

• HegmannGandYarrantonG,2011.Alchemytoreason:Effectiveuseofcumulativeeffects

assessmentinresourcemanagement.EnvironmentalImpactAssessmentReview31(5):484-490.doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2011.01.011

• IndianandNorthernAffairsCanada,2007.Acitizen’sguidetocumulativeeffects.Ministerof

PublicWorksandGovernmentServicesCanada,Ottawa,ON,Canada.

• InternationalFinanceCorporation,2013.Cumulativeimpactassessmentandmanagementguidancefortheprivatesectorinemergingmarkets:Goodpracticehandbook.WorldBankGroup,Washington,DC,USA.Availableathttp://www.ifc.org

• Noble,B.2014.Introductiontoenvironmentalimpactassessment:Aguidetoprinciplesand

practice,3rdedition.OxfordUniversityPress:Toronto.ScopeSpatialscopeScopingtheRCEAasaretrospectiveexerciseratherthanastrategicexerciserepresentsamissedopportunityinlightoftheCEC’spaststatementsidentifyingtheneedforastrategicassessmentofcumulativeeffectsintheregion.Thatbeingsaid,spatially,theROIfortheRCEA50includestheChurchill,BurntwoodandNelsonRiversystemswhichisanareabroaderthanthatidentifiedintheCEC’sBipoleIIIrecommendation.TheROIwasdesignatedassuchbecauseitcaptures“themainareasdirectlyaffectedbyManitobaHydro’snortherndevelopmentsassociatedwithLWR,CRD,associatedtransmissionprojects,andotherassociatedinfrastructure”(PhaseII,PartI,p.1.3-2).However,RCEAshouldscopedwidelyenoughtoincludeattentiontoindirecteffectsaswell,asmayaffectotherareasoftheprovince.Itisnotedthatthe“spatialscopeforPeople,Physical 50SeeMap1.3.2.1.RCEARegionofInterest–Areas1-4,andMap1.3.2.2AssessmentAreas(bothinPhaseIIreport,PartI).

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Environment,Water,andLandvaryforsocio-economicandbiophysicalreasons”(PhaseII,PartI,p.1.3-2)(seeSec.3.2.11forPeople,Sec.4.1.1.1forPhysicalEnvironment,Sec.5.1.2.2forWater,andSec.6.1.2.2.forLand),soitispossiblethatsomeindirecteffectsarecapturedbutnotspecificallyhighlightedintheRCEA.TheRCEAROIdoesnotincludethesouthernportionoftheBipoleIandIItransmissionlinecorridor,nordoesitincludetheplannedBipoleIIItransmissionlinecorridor.TheROIdoesnotincludeportionsoftheGrandRapidstoPonton230kVline,theHerbletLaketoRallsIsland230kVline,theHerbletLaketoCliffLake230kVline,etc.TheexplanationforthisisprobablythattheregionofinterestisalreadylargerthanthatrecommendedintheCEC’sBipoleIIIreportsoperhapsitcannotbecritiquedfromthatperspective.Buttechnically,theRCEAshouldincludeALLofthedevelopment,includingthesouthernportionoftheBipoleIandII,andespeciallytheBipoleIIIasitisanapprovedandimminentdevelopment.Itisimportanttoconsideralllineardevelopmentswhenassessingland-basedcumulativeeffectsfromtheperspectiveofhabitatfragmentation.Theassessmentdoesnotfullyaccountfortheeffectsofroadbuildingontheenvironmentovertime.Roaddevelopmentsarecapturedinanintactnessassessment,buttheimpactsofroadsareverycomplex,far-andlong-reaching,andmulti-faceted.Theindirecteffectsofroadbuildingarearguablyfarmoreinsidiousthanthedirecteffectsoftheirinitialconstruction.Roadsbringpeopleinandresourcesoutofaregion,foreveralteringtheenvironment,economy,andcultureofaregion.Someoftheknownimpactsofroadsinclude:increasedwildlifemortalityassociatedwithconstruction;increasedhumanmortalityduetovehiclecollision;modificationofwildlifebehavior;alterationofthephysicalenvironment;alterationofthechemicalenvironment;spreadofexoticspecies;increasedalterationanduseofhabitatsbyhumans;emissionsofair,noise,lightandheatpollution;regionaleffectssuchasfragmentationofwildlifehabitatsandrapidcommunitygrowth,tolong-termeffectssuchasglobalwarmingeffectsfromcarbondioxideemissions51.InthecontextoftheROI,totakejustoneexample,therehavebeennotedsignificanteffectstothecommercialfisheryforLakeSturgeonontheNelsonRiver(seePhaseII,PartV,p.5.4-5),andothercommercialfisheriesintheROI–someofthispressuremayhavebeenfacilitatedbythepresenceofroadswhichprovideaccesstolocalandothermarkets.ThespatialscopeoftheROImaypossiblyexcludesomecommunitiespotentiallyaffectedbytheLakeWinnipegRegulationproject(outsidethesouthernextentoftheROI)andotherpotentiallyaffectedcommunitiessuchastheShamattawaFirstNation“becausecurrentunderstandingssuggestthecommunityisnotdirectlyaffectedbythehistorichydroelectricdevelopmentsunderconsideration”(e.g.TheShamattawaFirstNation,p.3.2-3).Nothingissaidregardingwhetherthedevelopmentoffuturehydroelectricprojectsmayalterthisassumption.Itisacknowledgedthatthereareanumberofotherfactors,beyondhydroelectricdevelopment,thathaveaffectedtheRCEAROI(PhaseII,PartI,p.2.6-1):“Theseinclude,amongotherthings:miningdevelopments,highwaydevelopments;theestablishmentofcommercialresourceharvesting

51TrombulakandFrisell2000;Olagunju2012

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activities,governmentpoliciesandacts,theintroductionofwesternschoolsandchurches,theestablishmentofareliableelectricalsupply,andconnectionofsomeoftheRCEAROIcommunitiestootherpartsofManitobavianewhighwaysandotherroadsystems”.ManitobaandManitobaHydroclaimthattheeffectsoftheseotherprojectshavebeenconsideredwhentheycanprovidecontextorotherrelevantinformation:

Whenassessingimpactstotheaquaticenvironment,“theeffectsofotherprojects(e.g.mines)andactivities(e.g.commercialfishing)arediscussedtotheextentthattheyprovideoverallcontext,butthefocusoftheassessmentisonthecumulativeeffectsofhydroelectricdevelopmentintheROI”(PhaseII,PartI.,pg.1.2-6).

TheRCEAfocusesontheeffectsofhydroelectricdevelopment,however,theeffectsofotherdevelopments(e.g.mines)andactivities(e.g.commercialfishing)aredescribedatahighleveltoprovidecontextfortheassessment”(PhaseII,PartV,p.5.1-1).

Incaseswhereeffectsofhydroelectricdevelopmentcannotbeseparatedfromothereffects,theyareaddressedinmeasuresofcurrentcondition.Forexample,thesectiononPeopleattemptstodescribeinqualitativetermskeyhistoricaleventsandlargeresourcedevelopments(e.g.treaties,residentialschoolsystem,reservesystem,transportationdevelopment,miningandforestry).Thecombinationofeffectsmayleadtoadeclineinfishpopulationforexample,wheneachinisolationwouldnothaveresultedinapopulationdecline(PhaseII,PartV,p.5.1-11).However,ManitobaHydrocontinuallyassertsthatitisdifficulttoisolatetheeffectsofhydroelectricdevelopmentfrommanyotheragentsofchangeintheROI(e.g.Section3.5.3pages3.5-5to3.5-6).Thishydroelectricdevelopment-focusedapproachisconsistentacrossallRSCsconsidered.ThereisnoevidenceintheentirePhaseIIthattheeffectsofotherprojectsaresystematicallyexaminedandfactorintotheconclusionsreachedonRCEA.Theymayormaynothavebeen.ThespatialscopeofanalysisisadjustedtosuiteachRSC,whichiswidelyconsideredgoodpracticeinCEA.Typically,asub-regional(sometimeslocationspecific)approachtoassessingeffectsisutilized(e.g.thehydrauliczonesidentifiedinPartIVPhysicalEnvironment;forPartIIIPeople,theresourcemanagementareas/registeredtraplineareas,andthetraditionaluseareas;forPartVWaterthefourmainRCEAareas,andforPartVILand,theterrestrialregionsandterrestrialecozones),andattimestheboundaryofanalysisisextendedbeyondtheROItocapturetheextentofmigratoryhabitat.Thereisevidencethroughoutthattheseregionsarerespectedintheretrospectiveanalysis.Forexample:

TheassessmentoftheaquaticenvironmentdividedtheRCEARegionofInterestintofourareas…TheseareaswereusedfortheLakeSturgeon,mercuryinfish,fishquality,seals,andbelugaRSCs.Forthewaterquality…andfishcommunity…RSCs,eachareawasfurthersubdivided…tofacilitatethediscussions(PhaseII,PartV,p.5.1-1).TheeffectsofhydroelectricdevelopmentoneachRSCwillbediscussedfirstbyarea(orsubdivisionwithintheareawhereapplicable)andthenfortheRCEAROIasawhole(PhaseII,

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PartV,p.5.1-1).TemporalscopeThetemporalscopeoftheRCEAisretrospectiveonlyandfocusedon“theeffectsofprevioushydro-electricdevelopmentintheROI”(PhaseII,PartI,pg.1.2-1).Informationanddataupto2013areutilizedintheRCEA.Averylimitedamountofinformationfrom2014and2015hasalsobeenincorporated(PhaseII,PartI,p.1.3-5).AlistofpastdevelopmentsconsideredintheRCEAisprovided(PhaseII,PartI,Table1.3.2-1).Theseincludegenerationandwaterregulationprojects,converterstationsandassociatedinfrastructureprojects,andtransmissionprojects.SeveralprojectscurrentlyindevelopmentorregulatoryreviewareincludedintheRCEA:theBipoleIIItransmissionproject,KeewatinohkConverterStationandassociatedinfrastructureprojects,theKeeyaskgenerationproject,andtheKeeyasktransmissionproject.However,analysisofimpactsintheRCEAisstrictlyconfinedtoanhistoricalanalysisofpastimpactsbasedonrecordsandmonitoringdatapublishedpreviousto2013.WefailtoseehowthefutureimpactsoftheKeeyaskprojecttotheNelsonRiversystemandestuary,whichhasyettobecompleted,canthereforehavebeenadequatelycapturedinaretrospectiveanalysis.Thereisnoprospectiveanalysisortrendprojectionintothefuture:“Thecumulativeeffectsofanypotentialfuturehydroelectricdevelopments(i.e.thosenotcurrentlybeingconstructedorpartofanyformalregulatoryprocess)willbeaddressedoutsideoftheRCEA,duringtheregulatoryreviewprocessforthosedevelopments”(PhaseII,PartI,pg.1.3-8).ThetemporalscaleoftheassessmentdoesnotincludeanyaspectoffuturehydroelectricdevelopmentinnorthernManitoba.ScopeofregionalstudycomponentsRegionalStudyComponentswereselectedbyManitobaandManitobaHydrowithnopublicinput.Selectioncriteriawereoneormoreofthefollowing(PartII,Phase1,p.1.3-14):

• Overallimportance/valuetopeopleasidentifiedbyresidentsintheROIthroughvariousforums(e.g.,CEChearings,ATKreportsfromtheFirstNations,NFAclaims)

• Umbrellaindicator(anindicatorthatrepresentschangesforabroadgroupofspeciesandoneormoreecologicalpathways)

• Importance/valuetooverallecosystemfunction• Knowntobesusceptibletodirectorindirecteffectsfromhydroelectricdevelopments.

ForPartV.Water,theRSCsinclude:1)waterquality;2)fishcommunity;3)LakeSturgeon;4)mercuryinfishandfishquality;5)belugaandseals(PhaseII,PartI,p.1,3-16).ForPartVI.Land,theRSCsinclude:1)terrestrialhabitat;2)intactness;3)birds(waterfowlandcolonialwaterbirds);4)furbearers(aquatic,i.e.beaver);5)caribou;6)moose;and7)polarbear(PhaseII,PartI,p.1.3-17).AlthoughinitiallyconsideredinPhaseI,inPhaseIIforestbirdsandterrestrialfurbearersweredroppedasRSCsub-components(PhaseII,PartI,p.1.3-14)].OtherpotentialRSCswereconsideredanddroppedornotevaluatedincertainareasoftheROI,withrationalesprovided.Forexample:

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ItshouldbenotedthattheaquaticassessmentofeffectstotheNelsonandChurchillRiverestuarieswaslimitedtobelugaandseals,whicharethespeciesofgreatestconcern.Duetothelargetidesthatmakeitdifficulttoworkintheestuary,thereisanalmostcompleteabsenceofhistoric,qualitativedataforwaterqualityandthefishcommunity,whicharesubsequentlynotdiscussedforestuaries”(PhaseII,PartV,p.5.1-5).Withfurtherresearch,ithasbecomeapparentthattherearefewtonopopulationdataavailableforterrestrialfurbearersinManitoba,andlimitedinformationregardingtheirdistributionwithintheRCEAROI…thegreatestimpactsonfurbearershavelikelyresultedwithintheriparianzonesaffectedbyfloodingordewatering.Therefore,theeffectsassessmentforfurbearerswillfocusonaquaticfurbearers,usingbeaverasthefocalspecies(PhaseII,PartVI,p.6.1-6).

AlthoughtheRCEAcannotincludeallaffectedspeciesasthiswouldgoagainstthepurposeofscoping(whichistofocustheassessment),therationaleforWaterandLandRSCselectionsaresomewhatquestionable.Regardingaquaticfur-bearers,floodinganddewateringhavelikelyequallyimpactedotherimportantspeciesapartfromthebeaver,akeystonespecies.Noterrestrialfur-bearersatallwereselectedasRSCs.Otherimportantfur-bearersintheborealecosysteminclude:fisher,muskrat,mink,marten,fox,wolverine(westernwolverineislistedas‘SpecialConcern’byCOSEWIC52),otter(listedas‘Threatened’byCOSEWIC),wolves,lynx,bobcat,etc53.Wehavethesamekindsofconcernsaboutscopingofbirdspecies:ofallpossiblespecies,theRSClistislimitedtojustwaterfowlandcolonialbirds.AccordingtotheNatureConservancy,325birdspeciesrelyontheborealforestfornestingormigratorystopoverhabitat54.BoththeNelsonandChurchillRiversemptyintoestuaries.Estuarineenvironmentsareknowntobeespeciallyimportantashabitatthatsupportslocalwildlifehabitat,andespeciallysensitive.Estuariesarenaturallyhighlyproductive,producingmorefishbiomasspercubicmeterofwaterthaneitherfreshwaterormarineenvironments55.SealsandbelugaareidentifiedasRSCs,(verylittleisknownaboutthecumulativeimpactsuponthemoverthelasthalfcenturyrelatedtohydroelectricdevelopment),buttheconnectionamongfishabundance,quality,andavailability,andimpactstosealsandbelugaarenotmadeeventhoughitisnotedthatscientific“evidencesuggeststhatestuariesmaybeimportantfeedingareasforseals”(PhaseII,PartV,p.5.7-2).Belugaare“red-listedbytheInternationalUnionforConservationofNature(ICUN)as‘NearThreathened’”(PhaseII,PartV,p.5.8-2).PartIIIoftheRCEAisnotspecificonwhethertheevaluationofcumulativeeffectstoPeoplewasguidedbyRCSs;rathertheidentificationofissues/eventspresumedtohavehadsomecumulative

52 CommitteeontheStatusofEndangeredWildlifeinCanada 53See:http://thefurbearers.com/about-us/who-are-the-fur-bearers 54 See:https://www.nature.org/ourinitiatives/regions/northamerica/canada/explore/birds-of-the-boreal-forest.xml

55 Weddell2002

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effectsontheROIisthefocalpointofthisportionoftheassessment.Thefollowingsocio-economiceffectsareindividuallylinkedtogenerationandtransmissionprojects(PhaseII,PartIII,p.3.2-8):

• ResourceUse;• Navigation,TransportationandPublicSafety;• Culture,WayofLifeandHeritageResources;• HealthIssuesandConcerns;• TheWaytheLandscapeLooks(Aesthetics);• HomeRelocation;• WorkerInteraction;• LandUse;• PersonalPropertyLossandDamage;• InfrastructureandServices;• BenefitsofElectrification;and• Employment,Training,BusinessandIncomeOpportunities.

Whilethereishighprobabilitythattheymirrorbroadindicatorsofsocio-economicsatisfactionand/orpotentialregionalsocio-economicchange,noevidenceexiststhataffectedcommunitiesidentifiedtheseasissuesofconcern.InPhaseII,PartIII,onp.3.2-8,itisstatedthat:“ThesourcesusedinthedevelopmentofthisChapterincludepastenvironmentalimpactassessments,pastsettlementnegotiations,perspectivessharedbycommunities,theMMFandresourceusergroupsovertime,andvariouscommunity-ledstudiesandhistoriesthathavebeensharedwithManitobaandManitobaHydro.”Evidently,nodirecteffortwasmadetoengagethecommunityevenonthesocio-economicissuesperceivedtobetriggeredbythehydrodevelopmentintheregion.Threebroad“componentsofthephysicalenvironment”wereidentifiedasfocalpointsfortheassessmentinPhaseIIPartIVPhysicalEnvironment.Theywerefurtherbrokendowntosub-components/indicatorstohelptrackenvironmentalchanges(e.g.soils,geology,topography,permafrostandPeatlandsforgeographiclandscape).Theyareexaminedfromalocation-specificcontext(nottiedtocumulativeeffects)basedonthe12hydraulicspatialzonesidentified.Overall,thelistofRSCsusedintheRCEAisfairlylimited,withmanywildlifespeciesaffectedbyhydroelectricdevelopmentnotincludedonthelist.ItispossiblethatcertainimportantRSCshavenotbeencaptured,asimpactsarelikelytobeexpressedsooneratotherlevelsofecosystemorganizationthantheyareatthespecieslevel56.SomeRSCscouldcorrespondwithkeyecosystemservices.Forexample,biodiversityunderliesallecosystemservicesandcouldconstituteaRSC.”Supporting”ecosystemservicesincludenutrientcycling,soilformation,primaryproduction;”provisioning”ecosystemservicesincludefoodsupply(foodweb),freshwater,woodandfibre,fuel;“regulating”ecosystemservicesincludeclimateregulation,floodregulation,diseaseregulation,waterpurification;“cultural”ecosystemservicesincludeaesthetic,spiritual,educational,andrecreationalservices.UntilthelistofRSCshasbeenpublicallyandindependentlyvetted,itisnot

56Treweek1999

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possibletodetermineifthelistiscompleteorappropriate. ScopeofpublicengagementIntermsofwhowasinvolvedinpreparingtheRCEA,regionalstakeholderswerenotengagedexceptindirectlythroughreviewofhistoricaltranscriptsandreports,thoughthisisacoreprincipleofgoodpracticeforanyassessmentprocessinCanadaandworldwide.PublicengagementisplannedsubsequentlyintheformofacommentperiodonlineandwithlimitedopportunitiestomeetwiththeCECinperson.TheMinisterofConservationandWaterStewardshiprequestedoftheCECthatitcarryoutapublicoutreachprogramfollowingthesubmissionofthePhaseIIreport(PhaseII,PartI,pg.1.1-2).ThiswillincludepublicmeetingswithallpotentiallyaffectedFirstNationsandothercommunitiesidentifiedintheassessmentstudyareaandtheManitobaMetisFederation.Web-basedreviewofthePhaseIIreportwillalsobefacilitatedforinterestedpartiesoutsidetheROI(PhaseII,PartI,p.1.2-7).ThePhaseIIportionoftheRCEAismeantservetoasabasistoinformdiscussionwithcommunities.Thekeyobjectiveswithregardtocommunityconsultation(whichwillincludeAboriginalandothercommunities)appearstobe:tocheckaccuracyinpresentingpastandcurrenteffects,andidentifyanyadditionalsourcesofinformationthatmighthavebeenmissed(PhaseII,PartI,pg.1.1-2).Apparently,“effortshavealsobeenmadetocaptureandpresentcommunityissuesandconcernsthroughouteachofthemaincomponentsofthePhaseIIdocument”(PhaseII,PartI,pg.1.2-6)–buttothelimitedextentthatthismayhavehappened,itwasaccomplishedentirelythroughpost-hocanalysis.Forexample,theRCEAprocessdidnotengagestakeholdersintermsofanefforttodocumentandrecordtheircurrentconcernsbutreliedinsteadonexistingrecordstomaketheirjudgmentonsocio-economiceffectsintheROI.Therelianceonsecondarysources(thoughextensive)missestheopportunityforcommunitiestodebatetheimpactsofhydroelectricdevelopmentintheROIandperhapsdoesnotfulfillthelegalobligationtoconsultandaccommodateIndigenousinterestsonAboriginallandsasmentionedintheRCEAfilingitself(PhaseII,PartIII,p.3.3-29).ThereareplacesinPartVWaterandPartVILandwherethescientificandIndigenousviewpointsontheenvironmentalimpactsoncertainRSCsareplainlydivergent,suchasregardingimpactstothefishcommunity,fishquality,andCoastalcaribou.Forexample:“Thereisnoscientificevidencetosuggestthatthetaste,textureorpalatabilityoffishhasbeenaffectedbyhydroelectricdevelopmentinArea1.However,thepeoplewhoconsumethefishinthecommunitieshaveclearlyidentifiedthisasanissuethatisrelatedtothehydroelectricdevelopment”(PhaseII,PartV,p.5.6-10).ThismakesanevenstrongercasetoengageIndigenouscommunitiesandotheraffectedcommunityinterestsinevaluatingenvironmentalimpactsandpreparingtheRCEA.Itisourconsideredviewthat,whilethepotentialdifficultyto“definitivelyorquantitativelyseparatetheimpactsoftheseotherdevelopments,eventsandpoliciesfromhydroelectricdevelopment”(PhaseII,PartIII,p.3.2-6)maybeagenuinedrawbackanddeservestoberecognized,suchconsiderationisoutweighedbythepotentialbenefitstotheROIcommunitiestodebate,

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understand,andanticipatetheimpactsofhydrodevelopmentsinthecontextofsocio-economictrendsandpatternsintheregion. RetrospectiveAnalysisThisisalargelyapproachedasadescriptiveexercisewithnonewdatacollected;however,somedenovoanalysisisperformed.

ThereportincludesthecollationandanalysesofexistinginformationandavailabledatafortheROIand,insomecases,presentsnewanalysesfordatathatwerepreviouslycollectedbutnotanalyzedorinterpreted(PhaseII,PartI,pg.1.1-2).

Theinformationsourcesincludefindingsofscientificandcommunity-basedstudies,ongoingmonitoringprograms,regulatoryprocessesandsettlementsnegotiationsandclaimsprocesses(PhaseII,PartI,pg.1.1-2).TheRCEAaddressesbothenvironmentalandsocio-economiceffects.PartIIIPeopleprovidesaverydetailedhistoricalaccountofthesocio-economiceffectsofhydroelectricdevelopmentintheROI,whilePartIVPhysicalEnvironmentgivesanelaboratecharacterizationofthephysicalenvironmentalimpactsonthehydrauliczonesidentified—bothsectionsareusedtosupportLandandWaterwhicharethestrongestPartsofPhaseIIintermsofretrospectiveanalysis.EstablishingbaselineconditionsTheRCEAconsistentlyattemptstosummarizethecumulativeimpacttoeachRSCfromthepre-developmentperiodthroughtotheyear2013andassesstheoverallhealthoftheselectedRSCswithintheregionalecosystem,whileclearlyidentifyinginformationsourcesandacknowledgingdatalimitations.PastassessmentsintheROItypicallydidnotattempttointegrateinformationcollectedundervariousprogramsinthesamewaterbody(PhaseII,PartV,p.5.2-13andp.5.3-9),whereas,notably,theRCEAdoes.WhereintegrationofpastdataisperformedintheRCEA,itshouldberegardedasasignificantcontributionoftheretrospectiveanalysisgiventhatthiseffortcontributesnewinformationaboutthestateoftheenvironmentintheROI.Alsonotably,theRCEAcomparespre-developmentconditionstoconditionsduringthedevelopmentperiodinmanyinstanceswheredataisavailable,forallParts:People,PhysicalEnvironment,LandandWater.TheRCEAalsocompareson-site/on-systemconditionswithoff-site/off-systemconditionsinmanyinstanceswheredataisavailableforPartVWaterandPartVILand.Bothofthesearegoodpractices,inourview.Thatbeingsaid,datawereverylimitedinmostcasesforpre-developmentperiodsandtherewasoftennotenoughdatacollectedovertheyearstoassesschangeovertime,forexample,asrelatedtothehealthofthefishcommunityintheROI(PhaseII,PartV,p.5.3-9).Otherdatalimitationsincludedanalmosttotallackofdataonfurbearers(informationonthesinglefurbearerRSC-beaver-wasavailableinjusttwoterrestrialregions,yetimpactassessmentresultswereextrapolatedtothewholeROI);thereisessentiallynothingknownaboutimpactstosealsandbeluga,colonialseabirds(although,reportedly,therehaslikelybeenalargeimpact)orthereasonthatLakeSturgeonpopulationsremainstressedanddepressed.

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Asaresult,changewasoftendiscussedqualitatively,basedonthecurrentstateofknowledgeandpaststudies,aswellaspreviouslycapturedAboriginaltraditionalknowledge.Forexample:

Insomecases,whereahistoricquantitativeorqualitativeassessmentisnotpossible,currentinformationfrommonitoringprogramssuchasManitobaandManitobaHydro’sCoordinatedAquaticMonitoringProgram(CAMP)providestheabilitytodescribethecurrentstateoftheenvironmentandhowitcomparestootheron-systemandoff-systemareas(PhaseII,PartI,pg.1.2-5).

Thelackofdataincertaininstancesdidnotpreclude‘comprehensiveanalysis’ofimpactstosomeRSCs.Forexample,waterqualitydataandfishcommunitydatafromnumeroussourceswerecompiledforselectedsitesandwaterbodiesandanalysed,inspiteofdatalimitations.ManitobaHydroclaimsthereisenoughdatatoprovideageneralindicationoflikelylong-term,markedeffectsofhydroelectricdevelopmentonthefishcommunityformostmajorlakes(PhaseII,PartV,p.5.3-9).Generallyspeaking,however,thesignificantdatagapslendadegreeofuncertaintytosomeofimpactcharacterizationsintheRCEA.Belowisapartiallistofacknowledgeddatagaps:

• verylittleisknownaboutimpactstosealsintheNelsonandChurchillRiverestuariesbasedona“lackofquantitativepre-andpost-hydroelectricdevelopmentdata”(PhaseII,PartV,p.5.7-4);

• “afewwaterfowlspecieshavedecreasingtrends.However,species-specificpopulationtrendswerenotexaminedfurtherinthisstudyduetoarelativelackofdetailedwaterfowldata,andthenumerousfactors(e.g.winteringhabitat)beyondtheRCEAROIthataffectwaterfowlpopulations”(PhaseII,PartVILand,p.6.4-75);

• verylittleisknownaboutimpactstobeluga“duetoalackofquantitativepre-andpost-hydroelectricdevelopmentdata,whichprecludesadeterminationofhydroelectricdevelopmenteffectsonbelugaintheRCEAROI”(PhaseII,PartV,p.5.8-6);

• “…thereisalackofsuitablepre-developmentdataonfishmercuryconcentrationsformostwaterbodiesintheROI”(PhaseII,PartV,p.5.5-11);

• “verylittleinformationexistsonmercuryconcentrationsofLakeSturgeoninArea1overthepast50years,particularlyforyearspredatingLWR[LakeWinnipegRegulation]”(PhaseII,PartV,p.5.5-27);and

• “Forthisassessment,post-hydroelectricdevelopmentpopulationdensities[ofbeaver]areonlyavailablefortwoterrestrialregions;therefore,datafortheseareaswereusedtoassessrelativechangeinpopulationsduetohydroelectricdevelopment”(PhaseII,PartVI,p.6.6-6).

Adatagapanalysis,lookingacrossallRSCs,wouldgeneratealistofadditionalstudiesneededtoinformfuturedecisionsaboutprojectsthatarebeingconsideredforfuturedevelopmentintheROIsuchasConawapaandthefiveadditionalreservoirsfortheNelsonRiverandestuary.AprioritizedagendaforadditionalresearchintheROIshouldbedeveloped,inpartbasedonpublicfeedbackandissuesofimportancetothem.Moreinformationisalsoneededtoresolvesomeoftheconflictsof

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scientificandIndigenousopiniononthenatureofimpactstocertainRSCssuchasfishcommunity,fishquality,andCoastalcaribou,asnotedabove. WithregardtocumulativeeffectsonPeople(PhaseII,Part1,pg.1.3-12),theapproachtakenistocreateaprofileandhistoryforeachofthe21FirstNationsandcommunitiesintheROI,basedondocumentedtestimonyfromthecommunities.Totheextentpossible,alongitudinalanalysisofcertaindemographicindicatorsismadeforeachcommunity,acknowledgingtherangeofotherfactors,inadditiontohydro-electricdevelopment,thathavechangedthelivesofROIresidents.RelyingondatafromgovernmentbodiesandtechnicalreportssuchasStatisticsCanada,AboriginalandNorthernDevelopmentCanada,andLakeWinnipegChurchillNelsonRiversStudyBoard,trendsonpopulation,economic,healthandwellness,andothersocio-economicfactorsareprovidedinSection3.3.Manyofthedataarealsopresentedintablesandbarchartsdependingonthecharacteristicsofthecomponents,whichmaybeadequatesincehistoricalsocio-economicissuesareinfocus.InPartIV(PhysicalEnvironment),muchofthedataforthesectionisdrawnfromhistoricalrecordsandsecondarysourcese.g.forerosionandsedimentation:“Theinformationpresentedwaslargelyderivedfromareviewoftheavailableliteraturethatreportedonwaterqualityanderosionmonitoringprogramsoveraboutthelast40years”(p.4.1-5).Asnotedearlier,thesub-sectiononErosionandSedimentationemployedsomegoodpracticeanalyticaltechniquessuchasLandsatandAirPhotoAnalysis.ThesedimentationsectionpresentsinformationonTotalSuspendedSolids(TSS),turbidityandSecchidepthsreportedinhistoricalandcontemporarydatasources(p.4.4-7).ForWaterandLand,thePhaseIIreportprovidesasassessment,totheextentpossible,oftheeffectsofpasthydroelectricdevelopmentsontheaquaticandterrestrialenvironments.Wheredatagapsexistadescriptionofthecurrentstateoftheenvironmentisprovided,whereavailable.ConsiderationofchangetrendsThereisacknowledgmentthatinareasaffectedbyhydroelectricdevelopment,thenaturalhydrologicalregimewasaltered,tovaryingdegrees.Driversofchangearelistedas:flooding;reversalofflowpatterns;transmissionlines;lineardevelopmentssuchasaccessroads;andotherinfrastructure(notspecified)(PhaseII,PartV,p.5.1-2).Specificdriversofchange,or“primarypathwaysofeffects”(seeFigure5.1.2-1inPhaseII,PartV)inareaswithincreasedwaterlevelsmayinclude:

• increasedwaterdepthandchangestowatervelocity;• reversalofthetimingofflows(e.g.increasedwinterflowsanddecreasedsummerflows);• changesintherateandmagnitudeofwaterlevelfluctuations;• changesinicecover/slushiceandtimingoffreezing;• changesinwaterqualityduetodecompositionofvegetationandleachingofmaterialsfrom

floodedsoils;• increasesinerosionandsedimentdeposition;lossofaquatichabitatduetothephysical

presenceofthesefacilities;• theblockageofupstreamfishmovements;

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• floodingofterrestrialhabitatandcreationofnewaquatichabitat;and• increaseddebrisinthewaterandalongtheshorelines.

Asimilarlistofprimarypathwaysofeffectsisalsoprovidedforareaswithdecreasedwaterlevels.TheRCEAconsistentlyprovidesahigh-leveloverviewofpredominantpathwaysofeffectsintheformofnetworkdiagramsthatillustratedrivers,pathways,andeffectsforeachselectedRSCforPhysicalEnvironment,Land,andWater(anacceptedCEAmethod).OthersectorsofdevelopmentcontributingstresstoeachRSCintheregionarealsoidentifiedinthenetworkanalysis.DirectandindirectpathwaysofeffectsarecharacterizedusingnetworkdiagramsforthefishcommunityRSC(PhaseII,PartV,p.5.3-2)andforallotherWaterandLandRSCs.However,aspreviouslymentioned,indirecteffectsarenothighlightedintheRCEAbeyondaquickmentioninthenetworkdiagramprovidedforeachWaterandLandRSC,andinsofarastheymaybeincidentallycapturedwithinthespatialscopeoftheROI.Forexample,withregardtotheeffectsofhydroelectricdevelopmentintheROIonfishquality:“…itshouldbenotedthathydroelectricdevelopmentcancausechangestofishdiet,waterquality,watertemperature,algae,andgrowthrates,allofwhichcan,inturn,affectthetasteandtextureoffish.ThesepotentialindirectlinkageshavenotbeensubjecttoscientificstudiesintheRCEAROI”(PhaseII,PartV,p.5.6-32). IntheassessmentofchangetotheROIduringthedevelopmentperiod,notenoughattentionisgiventotheeffectsoftransmissionlineconstruction,clearing,andvegetationmaintenanceenmasseintheROI,particularlyifnon-selectivevegetationclearingtechniquesarecommon(e.g.mowing).WhiletheintactnessanalysisinPartVILandconcludesthattheROIremainsreasonablyintact,theeffectsofasinglemajortransmissionright-of-way(suchastheBipoleIandIIcorridor,andtheBipoleIIIcorridor)canbeseriousandpersistenttolocalwildlifeifnotcarefullymitigated. Fromasocio-economiccontext,thenatureofeffectstriggeredbygenerationprojectsaredistinguishedfromthosefromtransmissionprojectsandfromconstructionphasetooperationphase,andalsovarybylocation.Forexample,PhaseIIPartIIIPeople(p.3.4-18)highlightsdriversofnegativechangeforhealthandwell-beingasfollows:

• potentialincreasedmercuryexposure;• potentialchangesinwaterquality;• changestopatternsoftraditionalfoodconsumptionandfoodsecurity,and• stressandanxietybroughtaboutbysocialchange.

TheRCEAconsistentlyreportschangesandtrendsovertimefortheRSCsexaminedinPartIIIPeople,PartIVPhysicalEnvironment,PartVWater,andPartVILand,providingbothquantitativeandqualitativedescriptions.However,thiseffortisoftensignificantlyconfoundedbythedatalimitationsmentionedearlier,includinglackofpre-developmentdata,lackofdatainthedevelopmentperiod,anddatathatareincongruentandnotabletobecompared.TheRCEAdoesevaluatechangetrendsovertimeforwaterqualityusingdataavailable.ThefundamentalquestionrelatedtowaterqualityintheRCEAwaswhetherwaterqualitychangedinsuchamannerthatitrendereditunsuitableforaquaticbiota(PhaseII,PartV,p.5.2-14).Spatial

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comparisonsofwaterqualityacrosssiteswithintheROIwereundertaken,whereappropriate,toevaluatewhethertherewasevidenceofchangeinwaterqualityconditionsbetweenupstreamanddownstreamsitesonthesamesystem.Thesealsoallowedforanexaminationofpotentialcumulativechangesalongthelengthofariver,orreachofariversystem,andassistedwithidentificationofpotentialcausesofobservedchanges.Datacollectedatoff-systemwaterbodies(i.e.lakesorriversiteswherewaterlevelsandflowsareeitherentirelyorlargelyunaffectedbyManitobaHydro’shydraulicoperatingsystem)havealsobeenincludedtoprovidecontext(PhaseII,PartV,p.5-2-16).Aswell,statisticalanalyseswereundertakentoevaluatetemporaldifferencesinwaterqualitymetricsforsomelargerdatasets(PhaseII,PartV,p.5-2-17).Explorationofrelationshipsbetweenhydrologicmetrics,suchaswaterlevelanddischarge,andwaterqualitymetricswasundertakenforsomesitesanddatasetsusinglinearregressionanalysis(PhaseII,PartV,p.5-2-17).Thesub-sectiononErosionandSedimentationemployedanarrayofgoodpracticespatialanalyticaltechniques,includingLandsatAnalysisandAirPhotoAnalysis.IntheappendixesthataccompanythePhysicalEnvironmentalsection,theresultsofthetrendanalysisfortemperatureindicatesincreasingannual,winterandspringtemperaturetrends,thoughfewertrendsdetectedinsummerandautumn(Appendix4.2A,p.21).Appendix4.3AalsoprovidesanassessmentofhydraulicimpactsonLWRandtheCRDontheNelsonRiverusingastudyperiodfrom1914to2014andwiththeconclusionthat“LakeWinnipegRegulationhasreducedtherangeinwaterlevelsonLakeWinnipegbyreducingthepeakwaterlevelsduringfloodandraisingthelowestwaterlevelsduringdrought”(p.20).Theseareusefulconclusionsthatshouldbereplicatedforallcomponentsandindicatorsinordertohaveastrategicviewoftheaggregateimpacts.WenotedinconsistencyintheapproachtakentotheretrospectiveanalysiswhencomparingPartsIIIandIV(PeopleandPhysicalEnvironment)toPartsVandVI(WaterandLand).Whiletrend-basedanalysisisconsistentlyusedtocharacterizethecumulativeeffectsofhydroelectricdevelopmentsonWaterandLand,theinformation-provisionapproachthatisadoptedforthePeopleandPhysicalEnvironmentsectionsdoesnotallowforthesamekindoftrendanalysistobeperformed.Anovertfocusondescriptionofsocialconditionsandthephysicalsettingwithoutconsiderationtoquantifyingorqualifyingthemagnitudeandpathwaysofcombinedperturbations(hydroandotherdevelopments)onPeopleandPhysicalEnvironmentRSCsisaslipperyslopetowarddiminishingthesubstantivegoalsofaRCEA.Useofindicators,metrics,benchmarks,thresholdsTheRCEAconsistentlyusesindicators,metrics,andbenchmarkstoassessimpactstoPartVWaterandPartVILandRSCs.However,thisisnotevidentinPartIIIPeopleorPartIVPhysicalEnvironment.ScientificbenchmarksarealsoutilizedinPhaseIIPartVWaterandPartVILandtohelpcontextualizecumulativeimpactstoeachRSCandsuggestanappropriatelevelofconcernforthecumulativeimpactsdetected.Benchmarksaredescribedasstandardpointsofreferenceagainstwhichindicationofnegativechangecouldbedetected(PhaseII,PartI,p.1.3-19).Benchmarksweredefinedbasedon:

• thedegreeofchangethathasoccurredbetweenpre-andpost-hydroelectricdevelopment

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conditions;• theManitobaWaterQualityStandards,ObjectivesandGuidelines;• theCanadianWaterQualityGuidelinesfortheProtectionofAquaticLife(PAL);• thefederalrecoverystrategyforborealwoodlandcaribouinCanada(EnvironmentCanada

2012);• whetheranRSC(e.g.moose)isincreasing,decreasing,orstable;• useofmodels/scientificliteraturetodeterminerelativeconditionforkeyparameters;• changesoutsidethelimitsofnaturalvariation;• howtheRSCcomparestoanRSCinanon-affectedwaterbodyinasimilargeographicarea;• whethertheRSCisabletocontinuetosupportFisheriesManagementObjectives(e.g.ableto

continuetosupportacommercialfishery);and• professionaljudgment.

ArangeofindicatorsandmetricsforeachRSCwasidentifiedandused.However,theproponentperformedselectionoffocalspecies,andindicatorsandmetricswithnoapparentpublicengagementorscrutiny[seeSections5.1.2.3.(Water)and6.1.2.3(Land)].Indicatorswereaimedatdescribingand/orcharacterizing,inameasurableway,thestateofthatRSC.Selectioncriteriaforthevariousindictorsarespecifiedas:

• DoestheindicatorassistindeterminingthehealthorconditionoftheRSC;• Istheindicatormeasurable;• Istheresufficientinformationavailableontheindicatortomakeitusefulindeterminingthe

conditionoftheRSC;and• Istheindicatoreasytounderstandandmeaningfultothegeneralpublic(PhaseII,PartI,p.

1.3-18). TheRCEAidentifiesdriverandresponseindicatorstofacilitateaclearerpictureoftheoverallhealthofeachRSCinPartIVPhysicalEnvironment,PartVWaterandPartVILand.Inourviewthisisauseful,innovativepractice.Ingeneral,saveforafewinstances,theuseofenvironmentalthresholdsthatcouldhelpassessthesignificanceofhistoricalimpactsonRSCsisavoidedintheRCEA.InPartVWaterandPartVILand,theshorttimelineoftheRSEAwasoftencitedasthereasonthresholdscouldnotbedeveloped.ThereasoncitedinPartIIIPeopleis“lackofsocio-economicanddemographic-specificdatapre-1980s”(PhaseII,PartIII,p.3.3-33),andinPartIVPhysicalEnvironmentitis“absenceofhigh-quality,long-termrecordswithgoodspatialcoverage”(PhaseII,PartIV,p.4.2-5).UseofthresholdsisacceptedasgoodpracticeinCEA.ConsiderationofimpactsignificanceItisacknowledgedthatmultiplehydroelectricdevelopmentshaveresultedincumulativeeffects,suchas:

• additiveeffects(e.g.multiplegeneratingstationsaffectingseveralareasofspawninghabitat

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forafishspecies);• synergistic(e.g.theinputoftwocontaminantsthatcombinetomakeamoretoxic

substance);and• subtractive(e.g.theWuskwatimGenerationProjecthasreducedwaterlevelfluctuationson

WuskwatimLakethatwerecausedbytheChurchillRiverDiversion)(PhaseII,PartV.,p.5.1-10).

Itisalsoacknowledgedthattherehavebeenbothdirectandindirecteffectsfromhydroelectricdevelopment.“Insomecases,thepathwaysleadtotheeffectsdirectly(e.g.thephysicalpresenceoftheLimestoneGeneratingStationblockedupstreamfishmovements),andinothercases,thepathwaysleadtotheeffectsindirectly(e.g.dailywaterlevelfluctuationsdecreaseshabitatquality/availabilityinthelittoralzone;decreasedlittoralhabitatqualityreducesbenthicinvertebrateproduction;reducedbenthicinvertebrateproductionaffectsfishdependentonthisfoodsource;anddecreasedfishpopulationsleadtoreducedharvestsbyfishers)(PhaseII,PartV,p.5.1-10).Pathwaysofeffectsdiagramsforhydroelectricdevelopmentandinteractionswithotherprojectsandactivitiesisprovided(SeeFigure5.1.2-1inPhaseII,PartV–alreadymentionedabove).Linkagediagramsshowingpotentialpathwaysofeffectofhydroelectricandotherfactorsonwaterquality,andfishcommunityareprovided(SeeFigure5.2.1-1;5.3.1-1inPhaseII,PartV).Thedominantfocusonthedirect,additiveeffectsofhydroelectricdevelopmentoneachenvironmentalcomponentis,however,oneoftheweaknessesoftheRCEA.Oftenmissingistheassessmentofimpactstoimportantconnectionsbetweenoramongpeople,thephysicalenvironment,water,andland.Arguably,asynergisticapproachlinkingmultiplestressorstoeachcomponentinbothquantitativeandqualitativetermsismorelikelytoyieldusefulperspectiveforansweringquestionsabouttotalimpactsofdevelopmentsonthesocialandbiophysicalenvironment.Interestingly,itisnotedinthestudylimitations(PhaseII,Part1,p.1.3-20)that:

Theabilitytoquantifytheeffectofhydroelectricdevelopmentsmaybemaskedbytheeffectsofotherprojectsandactivities(e.g.thelossoflandduetoclearingforhydroelectricdevelopmentsinanareawithlargescaleforestryoperations),and

Dependingonthedatasources,whileitmaybepossibletoquantifythecumulativeeffectsofalldevelopmentsovertheperiodonanRSC,itmayormaynotbepossibletoseparateouttheproportionofthoseeffectsresultingspecificallyfromhydroelectricdevelopment(e.g.thechangeinapopulationofanimals).

InPhaseII,PartV,p.5.1-2,itisalsostated:“Whilethechangesinaquaticbiotaarestronglylinkedtochangesinthephysicalenvironment,theyarealsolinkedtosocio-economicconditions(e.g.changesinfishpricescanresultinthetargetingofspecificspeciesbycommercialfishers).

However,thesestatementswhichexplicitlyrecognizepotentialsforsynergisticinteractionsarenot

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revisited.Withoutsufficientanddeliberateeffortatcharacterizingthesynergisticimpactsofnaturalandhumanperturbations(includinghydro)oneachVEC,atrueunderstandingofcumulativeeffectscannotbeachieved.Synergistically,anobviousconnectionbetweenwaterqualityandeffectsonthefishcommunityaremadeinanetworkanalysis(seeFigure5.3.1-1)butthislinkageisnotexploredindepthinthesummaryofcumulativeeffectsonfishcommunityintheROI.Further,itisimportanttoidentifywheresynergisticinteractionsaffectingLandandWaterRSCsmightalsoaffectPeopleRSCs.Forexample,withrespecttomercuryconcentrationsinfish:

BasedontheentiredatasetfortheROI,meanmercuryconcentrationsofpiscivorousfishspeciesfromon-systemwaterbodieshaveregularlyandoftensubstantiallyexceededthe0.5ppmHealthCanadastandardforthecommercialsaleoffish.Theseexceedenceshavetypicallybeenobservedfor5-25yearsbutinsomecasesformorethan35yearsafterflooding(PhaseII,PartV,p.5.5-98.

Itisalsonotedthat:

HydroelectricdevelopmentconsiderablychangedLowerChurchillshorelineecosystemsasindicatedbysurfacewaterarea,shorelinelength,waterbodymorphology,waterandiceregimes,bankandbeachattributes,thedistributionandabundanceofshorezone,offshoreandtallshrubvegetationandlargewoodydebrisaccumulation(PhaseII,PartVI,p.3-431).

Thesame“high”cumulativeeffectsarenotedforNelsonRivershorelineecosystems(PhaseII,PartVI,p.6.3-442,p.6.3-451,p.6.3-452).Fromacumulativeeffectsperspective,itseemsimportanttoexplorehowhighmercuryconcentrationsinpiscivorousfishandthemajoralterationofshorelineecosystemsofcombinedwithdecreasedfishquality(accordingtoIndigenouspeople)anddecreasedavailabilityoffishpercubicmeterintheNelsonandChurchillRiverestuaries,togetherhavesynergisticallyimpactedfoodsecurityandculturalintactnessforIndigenouscommunitiesintheROI.TheRCEAdoesmakeacoupleofattemptstoidentifysynergisticimpacts,andtheeffortshouldbeexpanded.AttimesinPartVWater,andPartVILand,thecumulativeimpactofhydrodevelopmentonanRSCisqualifiedrelativetotheimpactattributabletootherdevelopments,anddeemedproportionatelyless:thisiswrong-headed,asitisthetotalimpactofallactivitiesonaRSCthatisimportant.Inotherwords,theincrementalimpactsofhydroelectricdevelopmentare‘traded-off’(i.e.minimized)againstthesignificanceofotherdisturbancesintheregion;anerrorthatwasnotedinboththeBipoleIIIandKeeyaskCEAreviews.Forexample,waterqualityintheROIisconsideredtobesuitableforaquaticlifeformostsitesandperiods,withthemostnotableexceptionsbeinglowoxygenconcentrationsatsomelocations(e.g.NotigiLake),ironandaluminumlevelsabovePAL(protectionofaquaticlife)guidelines,andphosphorouscommonlyexceedingthenutrientguideline(PhaseII,PartV,p.5.2-210).Thesefindingsaredownplayedor‘minimized’throughcomparison:“theseconditionsarealsoobservedinlakesthatarenotaffectedbyhydroelectricdevelopment”(PhaseII,

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PartV,p.5.2-210),and:

Theexistenceofmultiplepathways[ofeffectsonbeluga]makesdistinguishinghydroelectric-relatedeffectsfromotherdriversadifficulttask.Forexample,commercialexploitationofbelugaintheRCEAROIbeganinthelate1600s…Additionally,thePortofChurchill…undergoesregularunderwatermaintenanceactivities…(PhaseII,PartV,p.5.8-6).

Similarly,withrespecttocaribou:“…thehighestlevelsofhydroelectricdevelopmentdisturbanceoccur[s]intheWabowdenRange,with6%ofthetotalareadisturbanceattributedtohydroelectricdevelopment.However,thelargestcontributortodisturbanceinallrangesremainsnaturaldisturbance…”(PhaseII,PartVI,p.6.9-57).Andwithrespecttomoose:“Hydroelectricdevelopmenthascontributedtothemajorityoflandscapealteration,thoughthisquantityofhabitatlossissmall(approximately1%)relativetothehistoriccontributionofforestfires”(PhaseII,PartVI,p.6-10-208).ItistotalimpactonRSCsthatmattersandisneededtounderstandthesignificanceoffurtherimpactscausedbyanyadditionalprojectsintheROI.ItisapparentintheRCEAthatthetotalstressoncertainsub-regionsoftheROIismuchgreaterthanothers(thesub-region“Area2”–theNelsonRiverandestuary–beingthemoststressed),yettheRCEAdoesnotattempttoqualifythetotal,cumulativestressplacedonanygivensub-region,norontheROIasawhole.Inotherwords,despitethevolumeofinformationprovided,ManitobaandManitobaHydrodonotintegratetheirobservationstoarriveatastatementabouttheoverallwellbeingand/orsustainabilityoftheenvironmentorcommunitiesoftheregion.Infact,theRCEAavoidstheissueofthesignificanceofimpactsaltogether.ScientificbenchmarksareconsistentlyusedtogaugetheseriousnessofnotedcumulativeeffectstoRSCsinPartVWaterandPartVILand,butthereisnoattempttoevaluatesignificanceeitherusingtheclassiccriteria(magnitude,duration,likelihood)orbyapplyinga‘sustainabilitytest.’Further,thesocietalsignificanceofthecumulativeeffectsthroughouttheRCEAisnotaddressed.AssigningsignificancetotheimpactscausedbyhydropowerdevelopmentinnorthernManitobaisnotmerelyascientificexercise.Significancedeterminationisdynamic,contextual,political,andultimatelyajudgmentcall:scientistsevaluatesignificancedifferentlyfromoneanotherandfromlocalcommunities57.Ifathresholdhasbeendeemedcrossed,anyfutureimpactonaRSCmustbeconsideredsignificant.ProspectiveAnalysisTheRCEAdoesnotincludeprospectiveanalysis:

…environmentaltrendsarediscussed,whereappropriate,tounderstandandprovidecontextforenvironmentalchangeovertime,butpredictionsoffutureconditionsduetoclimatechange,introductionofnon-nativespecies,andotherongoinganthropogeniceffectsarelimited,astheyarenew,evolvingandcurrentlynotavailableintheliterature”(PhaseII,PartI,pg.1.3-5).

57Noble2015

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Unfortunately,prospectiveanalysisisacoreelementofgoodpracticeCEAandthelackofitmustbeconsideredamajorshortcomingoftheRCEA.ItisunclearwhytheTermsofReferenceprecludedprospectiveanalysisgiventhatamajorquestionregardingthefuturewelfareoftheenvironmentandcommunitiesnorthernManitobaisthepotentialformoredams;particularly,whetherornottosanctiondevelopmentoftheConawapageneratingstation.Manitobahassignificantundevelopedhydropotentialremaininginthenorthandhasalreadyinvestedapproximately$380millionontheConawapaproject(ManitobaHydro2017). ManagementOneofthebiggestopportunitiesinaregionalscaleassessmentistoidentifyopportunitiesandpartnershipsforcoordinatedmitigationandmanagementofregionalimpacts.TheRCEAdoesnotaddressthemanagementphaseofCEAbeyondprovidingalistofpastandcurrentremediationandcompensationprogramsintheregion.

Whereapplicable,theassessmentincludesadiscussionofmitigationandremedialworksthathavebeenputinplacetoreduceeffectsandcompensationprovidesforeffectsthatcouldnotbemitigated(PhaseII,PartI,pg.1.2-6).

PhaseII,PartIIIPeopledocumentspast/ongoingeffortsbyManitobaHydroatmitigatingeffectsduetohydroelectricdevelopmentintheROI,someofwhicharecollaborativeinnaturee.g.LakeSturgeonStewardshipandEnhancementProgram(p.3.4-26)andCoordinatedAquaticMonitoringProgram(p.3.4-26).Mostoftheeffects(ResourceUse,Navigation,TransportationandPublicSafetyetc.)aremitigatedviaexistingSettlementAgreementsthatstipulatecompensationarrangementsand/oragreementsforaddressinghydroelectricdevelopmentimpacts.Otherlocation-specificinitiatives(e.g.KischiSipiNamao,formallyLowerNelsonRiverSturgeonStewardshipAgreement)andprograms(e.g.WaterwaysManagementProgram,includingBoatPatrolProgram,DebrisManagementProgram,SafeIceTrailsProgram,andWaterLevelForecastNoticeProgram)aredocumentedas“mitigationmeasures”forNavigation,TransportationandPublicSafety.TheseeffortsarelargelypresentedinthecontextofhydrodevelopmentandnotinthecontextofoffsettingsignificantcumulativeeffectsaffectingthepeopleintheROI. PartIVPhysicalEnvironmentissilentonthetopicofimpactmitigationandmanagementmeasures,althoughitalludestothevalueofcollaborativemonitoringwithoutelaboratingontheapplicationofsuchcollaborativeeffortsoncumulativeeffectsmanagement.Forexample,thesectionstates:WaterSurveyofCanada(WSC)andManitobaHydroarepartoftheNationalHydrometricProgram—acooperativeendeavourbetweenthefederal,provincial,andterritorialgovernmentstoprovideaccurate,timely,andstandardizeddataandinformationonthecurrentandhistoricavailabilityofsurfacewater(4.3-5).Thereasonadvancedforthiscollaborativeinitiativeistosupportoperationalandcostefficienciesandnotforthepurposeofoffsettingsignificantcumulativeenvironmentaleffects.Thus,althoughthelistofpastremediationandcompensationprogramsprovideddoesserveasa

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usefulbasistoidentifystrengths,weaknesses,gaps,andopportunitiestostrengthenregionalimpactmanagement,thisworkhasyettobedone.

FollowingcompletionofthePhaseIIreportandthepublicoutreachprogram,ManitobaandManitobaHydrowillreviewalloftheRCEAdocuments,theoutcomesofthepublicoutreachprogram,aswellascurrentmonitoringandplanning/licensinginitiativesandconsidernextappropriatesteps.Effortswillbemadetodevelopnextstepsinacomprehensiveandcoordinatedfashion.NextstepswillbeoutlinesinafinalRCEANextStepsdocument,availableinspring2017”(PhaseII,PartI,pg.1.1-2).

Atthetimeofthisreview,theNextStepsdocumentwasnotcompleted.

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