Risk, Reality, Reason: End-To-End Standards and Acceptable Risk Erastus Hamm Dow Chemical...
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Risk, Reality, Reason: Risk, Reality, Reason: End-To-End Standards End-To-End Standards and Acceptable Risk and Acceptable Risk Erastus Hamm Dow Chemical Corporation
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Transcript of Risk, Reality, Reason: End-To-End Standards and Acceptable Risk Erastus Hamm Dow Chemical...
Risk, Reality, Reason: Risk, Reality, Reason: End-To-End Standards End-To-End Standards
and Acceptable Riskand Acceptable Risk
Risk, Reality, Reason: Risk, Reality, Reason: End-To-End Standards End-To-End Standards
and Acceptable Riskand Acceptable Risk
Erastus Hamm
Dow Chemical Corporation
Erastus Hamm
Dow Chemical Corporation
Balance of riskBalance of risk
Cycle of riskCycle of risk
Risk and other thingsRisk and other things
Salome JERRYSPRINGER
May 1, 2005:
AR CalculatorAR Calculator
Acceptable RiskAcceptable Risk
Gov’t risk assessmentGov’t risk assessment
Until 1974: Company proves safety
After 1974:Government proves danger
National to globalNational to global
OECDTesting Initiative Stopped
(1982)
REACHRisk Protocols Halted
(2001)
“Sane-ing up” risk
Core DB >500,000 cases 84 parameters
Location Timeframe Casualties Financial results Collateral damage Time until legal
“closure” Etc.
Core DB >500,000 cases 84 parameters
Location Timeframe Casualties Financial results Collateral damage Time until legal
“closure” Etc.
Ancillary DBs Production substances
and their risks Legal environments Cost of litigation per
unit time Income levels Medical costs Climatic variations Histories of unrest Cultural particuliarities Etc.
Ancillary DBs Production substances
and their risks Legal environments Cost of litigation per
unit time Income levels Medical costs Climatic variations Histories of unrest Cultural particuliarities Etc.
Mitigated Causality / Indirect OwnershipMitigated Causality / Indirect OwnershipUnproven Harm / Diffuse RiskUnproven Harm / Diffuse RiskMarginal Target / Unclear ImpactMarginal Target / Unclear ImpactUncertain Provenance / Diverse AgencyUncertain Provenance / Diverse Agency
Risk typesRisk types
UH/DRUH/DRMC/IOMC/IO
MT/UIMT/UIUP/DAUP/DA
Unproven Harm / Diffused Risk
Unproven Harm / Diffused Risk
Mitigated Causality / Indirect Ownership
Mitigated Causality / Indirect Ownership
$2.0B$1.5B -
$1.7B - $0.4B
=
=
Marginal Target /Unclear Impact
Marginal Target /Unclear Impact
Uncertain Provenance /Diverse Agency
Uncertain Provenance /Diverse Agency
CompetitorsCompetitors
Gilda says:
The only good skeleton…The only good skeleton…
… is a gold skeleton!… is a gold skeleton!
