Risk management pulses supply chain
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Transcript of Risk management pulses supply chain
PULSES
By: Group 3
• India accounts for about 35% of the world area and 27% of the world production of pulses.
• Pulses are grown in India in an area of 26-27 million hectares with an annual production of 17-19 million tons (mt) of which 87% is
rain fed
• About 90% of the global pigeon pea, 65% of chickpea and 37% of lentil area falls in India, corresponding to 93%, 68% and 32% of
the global production, respectively.
Source:- FAOSTAT
Pulses Scenario
6.4
4.69 4.2
7.126.06 6.19
7
8.36
9.8810.46
11.12 11.03 11.26 11.5
14.76 14.57 14.66
18.2417.09 17.45
18.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
Pro
du
ctio
n(m
t)
Kharif Rabi Total
Source: DES-Directorate of Economics and Statistics
The production of pulses in India increased by 3.35% per annum
during the last decade
In the year 2013-14, India produced 19.5mt pulses, that being its best
performance till this year
The production of pulses in India in MY 2014-15 in estimated to
18mt, slightly less than 2013-14
Pulses production Scenario in India
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
Are
a (
mh
a)
Yie
ld (
kg
/ha
)
Yield and area under production of pulses in India
Yield(kg/ha) Area(mha)
• The average yield in India has
increased by 100 kg/ha
(around 15%) since 2009-10,
yet it is below world average of
910 kg/ha.
• The area under production has
increased from 23mha in 2009
to 27mha in 2013
14.7
18.217.1 17.45
18.5
3.4 2.5 3.3 3.5 3
18.1
20.7 20.4 20.95 21.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
mill
ion
to
ns
Production, import and supply of pulses in India
Production Import Total Supply
• The ever increasing demand of
pulses in India has yet not been
satisfied by its production
• The current supply of pulses is
22.5mt
Source:- www.indiastat.com
State wise statistics of pulses in India
24%
15%
13%10%
38%
Major states producing pulses(Kharif)
Maharashtra
Rajasthan
UP
MP
Others
33%
19%11%
9%
28%
Major states producing pulses(Rabi)
MP
UP
AP
Maharashtra
Others
• Maharashtra has the largest production
in karif season followed by Rajasthan
and UP
• MP has the largest production
during rabi season followed by
UP and AP
Source:- DEC
Pulses Market in India
Source : BCG Report
7
Pulse supply chain
Potential for savings through disintermediation in Urad
Source : BCG Report
Trader’s Details
Name Firm Name Address Contact
Chirag Agarwal(Manager) Jai Balaji Traders3-3-108/A/4,Present Park Colony ,Near Janapriya,Hyderguda, Attapur, Hyderabad - 500048
9505327848
Chetan Goyal(Director) Komal AgroTech Private LimiedD.No. 15-9-10, 1st Floor Mukhtiyar Gunj, Hyderabad - 500012
8043043926
Vishal Agarwal(Owner) Sri Annapurna Store And Supplyhimayat nagar,street no 10,Masjid Banda, Main Road, near hamstech college, Hyderabad -500084 8048570713
Nanda (Owner) Adya NaturalsHouse No. 3-4-114/5, Saichitra Nagar, Ramanthapur, Hyderabad - 500013
9849110622
Hari Nath (owner) Annapoorna Home NeedsH.No- 531, D V Colony, Secunderabad, Hyderabad - 500003
8049443739
Brajesh Panda(Trader) P. S. International India Private Limited
H No. 1-10-68/4, 301, Srinivasa Nilayam, Chikoti Gardens, Begumpet, Hyderabad - 500016
8048116885
Suresh Kumar Geosky ExportsRoad No. 1, Banjara Hills, Hyderabad - 500034, Telangana, India
9000868151
Satya Kodali(Owner) Sristi NaturalsPlot #280, Jal Vayu Vihar, Kukatpally, Hyderabad - 500072, Telangana, India
9866647534
Manohar SMR EnterprisesM. I. G. 134, Balajinagar, Kukatpally, Hyderabad - 500072, Telangana, India
9966734455
Raja Sekar(Manager) Celesta International24,West Car Street, Begumpet, Hyderabad - 500016, Telangana, India +91-4634-
506601
Santosh (Managing Director)
Aithas Food Private LimitedRoad No.39, Jubilee Hills, Near Padamma Temple, Titan Show, Room, Jubilee Hills Jubilee Hills, Hyderabad - 500033, Telangana, India
9247218393
Risk Assessment
Sr. No. What is Risk Description of Identified Risk How is risk currently managed? Type of Risk
1 Spoilage Occurrence of fungus due to M.C.
By sun drying and different
mechanical drying method
2 Weight Loss Leakage and long time storage use of pp bag
3 Transportation Risk
cost of transportation and
unavailability of vehicles at the
time
Pre booking of vehicle and mantaining
good relation with vehicle owner
4 Processing Risk Processing loss risk Skilled labour or fully mechanisation
5 Income of consumer Shift to the substitutes Not recognising the risk management
6 Quality issues: Indices
Procurement from Fragmented
farmers leads to different
indices of the pulses Grading of the commodity
7 Adulteration
Adding of the other pulses, lead
chromate, metanil yellow Quality inspection
8 Consumption Shifting
Moving towards meat and meat
products Not recognising the risk management
9 Marketing Strategy Demand and Supply
Forcasting the demand and future
trading
10 Branded pulses Big giant entered in the market
Direct selling to the large
customers(B2B)
11 Weather Risk Uncertanity in the Monsoon Weather forecasting
12
Govt Policies(GST,
Import/export) Importing pulses Not recognising the risk management
13 Commodity Market
Due to Commmodity exachange
there is high fluctuation Not recognising the risk management
Operational Risk
Strategic Risk
Global Risk
Risk Assessment
With Score
Sr. No. What is Risk Description of Identified Risk Type of RiskRisk Calculation
Impact Likelihood Score
1 Spoilage Occurrence of fungus due to M.C.
Operational Risk
3 26
2 Weight Loss Leakage and long-time storage 4 416
3 Transportation
Risk
cost of transportation and
unavailability of vehicles at the
time
3 2
6
4 Processing Risk Processing loss risk 4 416
5 Income of
consumer
Shift to the substitutes 3 26
6 Quality issues:
Indices
Procurement from Fragmented
farmers leads to different indices of
the pulses
4 5
20
7 Adulteration Adding of the other pulses, lead
chromate, metanil yellow3 3
9
8 Consumption
Shifting
Moving towards meat and meat
products3 2
6
9 Marketing
Strategy
Demand and Supply
Strategic Risk
4 416
10 Branded pulses Big giant entered in the market 4 312
11 Weather Risk Uncertainty in the Monsoon 4 4 16
12 Govt Policies(GST,
Import/export)
Importing pulses
Global Risk
3 3
9
13 Commodity
Market
Due to Commodity exchange there
is 5 fluctuation4 4
16
Inference: On the basis of telephonic conversation with the various traders, we have identified above mentioned risks which are associated with pulse trading starting from farm level to end consumers. Hence, according to the scale of impact and frequency of likelihood of its occurrence suggested by the traders we have calculated heat map.
Spoilage
Weight Loss
Transportation Risk
Processing Risk
Income of consumer
Quality issues: Indices
Adulteration
Consumption Shifting
Marketing …
Branded pulses
Weather Risk
Govt Policies(GST, Import/export)
Commodity Market
0
1
2
3
4
5
0 1 2 3 4 5
LIK
ELIH
OO
D
IMPACT
Risk Assessment Heat Map
Insignificant Mild Moderate Significant
Low
L
ow
-med
ium
M
ediu
m
M
ediu
m-h
igh
Hig
h
Recommendation/Strategy
Risk Impact Risk Level Risk Strategy
Mo
de
rate
(Ne
ed
Pro
acti
ve
Man
age
me
nt)
Level 1: • Govt. Policies needs proactive management like supply and demand scenario and according to the increase or decrease the amount of procurement
Level 2: • --
Level 3: • Spoilage• Transportation risk• Income of consumer• Consumption Shifting• Adulteration
Proactive management like direct contact to farmer and educate them for modern practicesImplement Integrated supply chain
Sign
ific
ant
(Urg
en
t A
tte
nti
on
)
Level 1: • Commodity Market Create more value to the farmer in terms of prices , information and other utilities
Level 2: • Marketing strategy risk• Weather Risk• Branded Pulses
At economic prices make available, accessible commodity to the consumer Focus on quality of the product in competitive market
Level 3: • Quality issues• Weight loss• Processing Risk
Primary processing at farm level Contract Farming
THANK YOU