Risk Associated With Population

8/12/2019 Risk Associated With Population

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We live in a society in which many of the problems of thepast have been eradicated through advancements ininfrastructure and technology, a modern age. However, asthose old obstacles are left behind, new ones arise before

us, both miniscule and monumental. Issues such asobesity, global warming and cancer, rear their ugly headslike the hydra of yore. Indeed, it is true that these threatsand their like are the most evident, and should be dealt

with accordingly, but we should not ignore those that havenot so pervasively breached our daily forums, because, likea slow poison, if not dealt with or detected, the death ofsociety may come more swiftly than anticipated.


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Introduction to Overpopulation (4-5)

Perspectives on the Risk (6-9)

Risk Communications (10)

Risk Regulation (11-12)

Obstacles to Effective Governance (13)

Risk Analysis A Psychological Standpoint (14-16)

Conclusion (17)


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Overpopulation is the condition of having a population sodense as to cause environmental deterioration, an impairedquality of life, or a population crash.

(Merriam-Webster Dictionary, n.d.)

The consideration of overpopulation as a relevant risk may

not be as evident as the risk giants of today, but itssignificance should not be ignored. Indeed, much unlikethe miniscule chance of being hit by a meteor,overpopulation is an ancient issue that can graduallyimpact us in ways much like a meteor impact would;therefore, the proposition of engaging in risk managementand assessment regarding overpopulation is prudent in theface of our ever lengthening life spans.

(Gardner, 2009)


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Only recently has technology been able to truly cause a significant extension inthe lifespan of humans, creating an environment in which we no longer die offas fast as we had used to.

(Gardner, 2009)

Although the population growth rate has declined in recent years, this is only

reflective of the population growth plateau that most developed countries face.(National Geographic, 2011)

In 1960, 70% of the worlds people lived in developing countries, Today thefigure is 80%, and these countries account for 95% of population growth.

(United Nations, 2003)

In many parts of the world, population growth outpaces economic growth,leading to a severe dearth of resources for the people in developing countries.



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People in many developed countries do not come in contact with theissues that come with overpopulation because their economic growthrate outpaces that of its population growth rate.

(WOA, 2014)

In other countries (many in Africa) where economic growth is not onpar with population growth and where there does not exist the

powerful infrastructure that can limit child mortality rates or othersimilar risks the effects of overpopulation are profound. In Africa, having more children and wives are symbols of increased

status for men so that even if they do not have the resources to supporttheir own children sufficiently, they are incentivized to continue toprocreate.

(Tembo, n.d.)

The one-child policy in China has increased female infant mortalityrates from 38 to 67 per thousand until reforms by the Chinesegovernment provided some leniency to parents with first-borndaughters.

(WOA, 2014)


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Population growth is often measured as a population growth rate, that is, apercentile growth rate of a given regions population over a period of time.

The population growth rate, even when declining, as long as it is positive, mayin fact be showing a linear increase in population for a region as a lower percentincrease of a larger population can be numerically equivalent to a higher

percent increase of a smaller population. Indeed, although the worldpopulation growth rate has declined from 2.04% to 1.33% from 1960 to 1999,the overall integer growth of population is still higher than before.


The population growth rate in developing countries is dramatically higher thanin developed countries; for example, Lebanons population is estimated to

increase 9.73% annually while the population of Japan decreases 0.13% everyyear.

(CIA World Factbook, 2014)


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Many nations today are still struggling to develop and provide betterconditions for its citizens. However, it is these developing nations that embodythe majority of the overpopulation issue. A rapidly increasing population inthese countries will make it more and more difficult for those nations toprovide for the growing population as it will then cost more to provide forthem, which in turn will slow down or even halt economic growth, leading to avicious cycle of death and decay.


Increased population density as a result of overpopulation can result in therampant spread of disease. A special case of this is in Africa, where rampant,unregulated reproduction has led to an epidemic of AIDS and HIV.


Apart from the human impact of overpopulation, it is also important toconsider the environmental impact of overpopulation. In order to support a

larger volume of people, it follows that more land is required to maintain ahabitable environment for the human population. This leads to the destructionof forests and rainforests, and in turn, the ecosystems of many species aredisturbed or even destroyed. The production of organic waste from humanscan also be a source of more environmental pollutants.

(Nasif, 2003)


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Although economic growth currently outpaces population growthin many developed countries, this cannot be expected to last.The main causes of imminent overpopulation are the increasedlife spans that we have enabled ourselves to have as well as theunregulated mating between people found in many developing

nations. The Earth does not have an unlimited amount of naturalresources that can support an unlimited amount of people. Aspeople become more and more available and natural resourcesbecome more scarce, the balance of trade and labor will beturned askew, leaving many in poverty and without employment.

A prominent example of this is in India, where millions of peoplelive on the streets, impoverished and famished due to the effectsof overpopulation. Indeed, this is not only a economic concern,but an ethical one as well.

(United Nations, 2011), (WOA, 2013)


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The primary parties that are seen as responsible for managing the riskof overpopulation are the national governments. However, we are allstakeholders in the future of the world and thus, we are also, in part,responsible for managing this risk.

Although there have not been many incidences of regulation regardingoverpopulation, one famous example is Chinas one-child policy.

The responsibility of governance can be distributed to the populationas well. Indeed, because we are all stakeholders in this risk, we shouldalso be empowered to make decisions for ourselves.

The Risk should be more widely communicated to stakeholders inorder to bring awareness to the issue.

Because the population is aging, the youth should be given educationas to how to handle and approach this risk. In this case, thegovernment will the main choice architect, guiding the youngpopulation to take action in a proactive and productive manner.



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The notion of required actions is not one that is so easilyconnected to dealing with the risk of overpopulation.Naturally, it falls to the people as well as the NationalGovernments to come to a compromise between freedomand control. However, some possible actions may be listed.

- Adopt a population restriction policy similar to the Chineseone-child policy.

- Communicate the risk of overpopulation to the populaceand clarify the nature of the issue.

- Educate the youth on how they can impact population

growth.- Encourage the widespread use of contraceptives and birth-

control mechanisms.(United Nations, 2011), (WOA, 2014)


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When communicating a risk as extensive and impactful asoverpopulation, care must be taken to balance the amount offear that is communicated alongside the issue so as to obtain adesired response from the population in the case of thegovernment acting as the choice architect.

The nature of this issue is a global one, not merely a nationalone, but attaining the cooperation of many countries, some ofwhich have been at odds with each other for a long time, may bedifficult.

Many of the proposed solutions to overpopulation that canprovide immediate results are restrictive of personal freedoms

and may be opposed by the population. To remove peoples attention from current risks and direct them

to a new one may be just as bad as neglecting the risk ofoverpopulation.

(United Nations, 2011), (WOA, 2014), (Russel & Poston, 2008)


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Overpopulation, as a risk not quite communicated topeople by the most readily accessible sources of media,mostly as a result of the indirect impact it has, doesnot hold much weight in the minds of many people.

Indeed, much unlike those widely communicated andprevailing issues such as smoking or cancer, where theeffects are evident and almost directly casual, theimpact of overpopulation is not necessarily soobviated. Therefore, it is also important to examinethe issue of overpopulation from a psychologicalstandpoint in order to overcome the natural responseof inaction towards seemingly irrelevant threats.


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Optimism Bias: Although the population has grown almost fourfold from 1.8 billion in 1927to 7 billion in 2011 it is only projected to increase to 9 billion by 2050. Thus, it follows thatbecause such a comparatively small increase will occur over such a long period of timeand also because many people in both the developed and developing world are unable toeasily view the direct effects of overpopulation, they will see themselves as rather unlikelyto be affected by overpopulation. Even though this optimism bias is generally true forhuman behavior, the seemingly indirect and distant nature of the risk overpopulationpresents can exacerbate the effects of this bias.

(United Nations, 2011)Example Rule: Much like a horrific asteroid impact, society has not truly experienced an

overpopulation crisis before, because only recently have we advanced enough so that thelife span of a human is significantly longer than has been in the past; therefore, it cannotbe so easily envisioned like certain horrific events in the recent timespace (e.g. 9/11).Indeed, people tend to assign a greater importance to things that can be easily recalled,and subsequently, people tend to weight their judgments toward more recentinformation, making new opinions biased toward that latest news. The prevalence ofother impactful issues such as global warming, cancer and terrorism in todays mediaovershadows the reporting that is done on a topic as un-relatable as overpopulation. Thisbias of the media towards reporting on easily sensationalized topics and events in turncauses us to overestimate the risk of those items which are reported and underestimatethe risks of those that go unreported even if they may pose a greater, latent threat.

(Gardner, 2009)


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Fischhoff, B. & Kadvany, J (2011). Risk: A Very Short Introduction.New York, New York: Oxford University Press.Gardner, D. (2009). The science of fear: how the culture of fear manipulates your brain. New York, N.Y.: Plume.

"Overpopulation." International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences. 2008. Retrieved June 24, 2014 fromEncyclopedia.com: http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1G2-3045301849.html

Nahle, Nasif. (2003). Overpopulation. Published on 10 November 2003 by Biology Cabinet Organization. http://biocab.org/Overpopulation.html. Retrieved June24, 2014.

Dewey, Arthur E. "One-Child Policy in China." 14 December 2004. 10 November 2008.

http://www.state.gov/g/prm/rls/39823.htm

CIA (n.d.). The World Factbook. Retrieved June 24, 2014, from https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/index.html

Hinrichson, D., & Robey, B. (2000, October).Actionbioscience | Population and the Environment: The Global Challenge. Retrieved June 24, 2014, fromhttp://www.actionbioscience.org/environment/hinrichsen_robey.html#primer

Jan, A. U. (2003, July 9). Overpopulation: Myths, Facts, and Politics. Retrieved June 24, 2014, from http://www.albalagh.net/population/overpopulation.shtml

Kaneda, T. (2006, June). China's Concern Over Population Aging and Health. Retrieved June 24, 2014, fromhttp://www.prb.org/Publications/Articles/2006/ChinasConcernOverPopulationAgingandHealth.aspx

National Geographic (n.d.).National Geographic: Eye in the Sky--Overpopulation . Retrieved June 24, 2014, fromhttp://www.nationalgeographic.com/eye/overpopulation/effect.html

Osterfield, D. (1993, September 1). Overpopulation: The Perennial Myth : The Freeman : Foundation for Economic Education . Retrieved June 24, 2014, fromhttp://www.fee.org/the_freeman/detail/overpopulation-the-perennial-myth/

Peakoil (2012, April 9). Overpopulation: The Facts and Solutions | Peak Oil News and Message Boards . Retrieved June 24, 2014, from

http://peakoil.com/enviroment/overpopulation-the-facts-and-solutions

WOA!! World Ovepopulation Awareness. (2014, May 17). Retrieved June 24, 2014, from http://www.overpopulation.org/

United Nations (2011). United Nations Population Fund. Retrieved June 25, 2014, from foweb.unfpa.org/SWP2011/reports

Tembo, M. S. (n.d.). Tradiitional African Family. Retrieved June 25, 2014, from http://people.bridgewater.edu/~mtembo/menu/articles/TraditionalAfricanFamily.shtml
http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1G2-3045301849.htmlhttp://biocab.org/Overpopulation.html.%20Retrieved%20June%2024http://biocab.org/Overpopulation.html.%20Retrieved%20June%2024http://www.state.gov/g/prm/rls/39823.htmhttp://www.overpopulation.org/http://www.overpopulation.org/http://www.state.gov/g/prm/rls/39823.htmhttp://biocab.org/Overpopulation.html.%20Retrieved%20June%2024http://biocab.org/Overpopulation.html.%20Retrieved%20June%2024http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1G2-3045301849.htmlhttp://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1G2-3045301849.htmlhttp://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1G2-3045301849.html

Risk Associated With Population

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