Risk assessment of coastal zones in the European part of Russia.

Risk assessment of coastal zones in the European part of Russia.

Asov and Black Seas study (Krasnodar region).

Inna Krylenko Natalya Yumina

Stepan Zemtsov

Lomonosov Moscow State University

Faculty of Geography

Natural Risk Asessment Laboratory (NRAL)

Object – aqua-territorial systems as a type of social-ecological systems

Subject – influence of natural processes (river flooding) on aqua-territorial systems

Purpose – an estimation of influence (risk and damage assessment) of natural processes on aqua-territorial systems

Object and purpose

Municipal districts and main cities of

Krasnodar region

(Krasnodarsky kray)

Potential flooding zones and observed flooding areas

Ecological sphere

Technosphere1.Infrastructure 2.Fixed funds

Sociosphere1. Socio-demographic

2. Ecomomy3. Political-administrative

4. Cultural

Psychological sphere

Social-economic geosystemor

social-ecological system

Natural hazards

AtmosphereHydrosphereLitosphereBiosphere

Antroposphere

The basic concepts of Russian approach

Risk Asessment Methodology in Russia

R = p*D R — risk p — hazard probability (%) D — expected damage

D = d*S + C

d — real damage per exposure area (rub*km2) — depends on flood depth, velocity, duration and land development

S — exposure area (km2) C — costs of preventive measures (rub)

The scheme for selection of indicators to assess risk of flooding on regional level

(N.Frolova and others, 2011, Russia)

Flood risk assessment

Vulnerability assessmentAssessment of natural hazards

Natural factors Socio-economic factors

1. Probability of flooding of coastal areas

2. Scales of the phenomenon - maximum excess of the flooding level - flood duration - exposure area

3. Riverbed factor

1. Average population desity

2. Proportion of the population in the flood zone

3. Anthropogenic conditionality of emergencies

4. Main funds in the economy

5. Human development index

Map of the index of the natural hazards of flooding

Map of the socio-economicvulnerability index

Map of flood risk

Map of the index of the natural hazards of flooding (N.Frolova and others, 2011, Russia)

Index of the natural hazards of flooding

Map of the sociol-economic vulnerability of the territory during floods (N.Frolova and others, 2011, Russia)

Socio-economic vulnerability index

Map of typological zoning of Russia on the degree of flood risk (N.Frolova and others, 2011, Russia)

Classes of flood riskLow risk

Insignificant risk

Average riskHigh risk

Very high risk

Extremely high risk

D=Dφ×θ ∑ Si Кi Pi

I – hazard level (1≤ i ≤3),Dφ×θ – damage coefficient for different types of damageSi – exposure area for each level of hazardКi – level of destruction coefficientPi – concentration coefficient:

ρi - density of population in each hazardous zoneρфон – density of population in the region, М – population of the region, mi – population in the zones of low (i=1), medium (i=2) and high (i=3) hazard

Сreg - net assets value of fixed production assets for year of census, n – years from census data, Ki – level of destruction coefficient.

Damage Asessment Methodology of Russian Emergency ministry

Destruction coefficients

Type of building

High level of destruction Medium level of

destruction Low level of destruction

Depth, m

Velocity, m / s

Duration, hours

Depth, m

Velocity, m / s

Duration, hours

Depth, m Velocity,

m / sDuration,

hours

Brick buildings(1-3 stages)

4 2,5 170 3 2 100 2 1 50

Industry buildings with light metal

construction 5 2,5 170 3,5 2 100 2 1,5 50

Brick buildings (more than 4

stages)6 3 240 4 2,5 170 2,5 1,5 100

Industry massive construction

7,5 4 240 6 3 170 3 1,5 100

Integral aproach.Scheme for indicators collection

Exposure Vulnerability DamageSphere Dimension Spatial

objectsCost

parameters for damage

Susceptibility

Coping capacity

Adaptive capacity

I. Environment

Description: Name Indicator Level Source

II. Technosphere

Infrastructure

Fixed funds; industry and

serviceIII.

Sociosphere

Social-demographi

c EconomyPolitical-

administrative

Cultural

Database

• Data from the Russian Statistical Service (Rosstat) for municipal districts (local level), federal ministries, departments of Krasnodarsky region administration, and etc.

• More than 300 indicators for 14 municipal districts from 2007 to 2011 years

• Seasonal data

SphereDimension

Spatial objects

Cost

parameters for damage

Susceptibil

ity

Coping capacity

Adaptive capacity

Name Indicator Name Indicator Name Indicator Name Indicator Name Indicator

I. Environment

Rare landscapes

Share of all area

Ecological capacity

Landscape recovery

time

Ecological enthusiast

s

Number of members

of ecological organizati

ons

Biodiversity

Concentration Index

for landscape

s

Wild animals

areas

Share of all area

Ecological capacity

Share of endangered species

Polluted area

Share of all area

PollutionEcological fines

Pollution

Quantity of

chemical fertilizers

Ecological investmen

t

Pollution

Number of waste

processing factories

DimensionSpatial objects

Cost parameters for damage Susceptibility

Coping capacity

Adaptive capacity


II. Technosphe

re

Infrastructure

RoadsLength of improved

roadsRoads

Cost of kilometer

Susceptibility of different

roads

Share of improved

roads

Recovery crews

Share of population

DamsLength and

location

Water supply system

LengthWater supply

systemCost of

kilometer

Alarm systems

Number Bulk rollsLength and

location

Sewerage system

LengthSewerage

systemCost of

kilometer

Evacuation plans

Irrigation system

Area and location

Heating system

LengthHeating system

Cost of kilometer

Siren

networks

Hydro and meteorologic

al stations

Industry

Agricultural lands

Share of all area

Agricultural enterprises

Cost of fixed funds

Agricultural management

?

Share of different

crops


crops

Share of susceptible

plants

Forest lands

Share of all area

Forest enterprises

Cost of fixed funds

Forest

management?

Share of different

trees


trees

Share of susceptible

trees

Fixed funds

Fixed funds of industries

Industrial area

Funds Cost


types of buildings

Share of susceptible buildings

Fixed funds of service

Service objects

Funds Cost


types of buildings

Share of susceptible buildings

Fixed funds of dwellings

Dwellings area

Funds

Cost


types of buildings

Share of fragile

dwellings

Sphere DimensionSpatial objects

Cost parameters for damage Susceptibility

Coping capacity

Adaptive capacity


III. Sociosphere

Sociol-demographic

Population exposed to

hazardsPeople

Value of peoples life

? Susceptible

people

Share of old and young

people

Emergency crews

Share of population

EducationLevel of primary

education

Poor people

Percentage of population

with incomes below the

subsistence minimum

Emergency public crews

Number of participants in

voluntary groups for the protection of public order

Diversification of labour

market

Herfindahl–Hirschman

Index

Unemployme

nt rate

Income per

capita

Average monthly wages

Social

networks?

Economy

Industry enterprises

Volume of production

Cost of production

Sales of own-produced goods and services

Insurance Diversification of economy

IncomeIncome of

enterprises

Profits of budget

Share of different

sources of budget profits

The share of own revenues

of local budgets

Herfindahl–Hirschman

Index

Investment

Political-administrative

Medical service

Number of hospital bed per

10000 inhabitants

Administration efficiency

Time for building license

Number of physicians per

10000 inhabitants

Private health expenditure

?

Administratio

nSuspicious

transactions

Cultural


nations

Share of migrants

VulnerabilitySusceptibility

Public infrastructureHousing

conditionsPoverty and dependencies Economic capacity Index

Length of improved water source / people

Length of improved

sanitation / people

The share of the inhabitants in

fragile dwellings

The share of the population with incomes below the subsistence

minimum

The share of the population

benefiting from social assistance

to pay for housing services

The share of the population served by the departments of social services at home for senior

citizens and disabled

Sales of own-produced goods,

works and services / people

0,075 0,075 0,15 0,15 0,15 0,15 0,25 0,33Lack of coping capacity

Government and authoritiees Medical services Social networks Material coverage Index

Unemployment rate

The share of own revenues of

local budgets

Number of hospital beds

per 10000 inhabitants

Number of physicians per

10000 inhabitants

Share of participants in

voluntary groups for the protection

of public order

Average monthly wages per capita

0,1 0,10 0,22 0,22 0,26 0,1 0,33 Lack of adaptive capacity

EducationEnvironmental management

Adaptation strategies

Investment Index

Share of employed

people with good education

Observed /Maximum flood

area

Diversification of the labour

market (Herfindahl–Hirschman

Index)

Private investment /

people

0,25 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,33

WorldRiskIndex approach. Selected indicators from database

I = (X - Xo)/(X*-Xo) (1) – monotonic increasing dependence

between variable X and index I

I =1-(Xo - X)/(X*-Xo) (2) – monotonic decreasing dependence

Xo – minimum of variable X among N municipal districts,

X* – maximum

Index I belongs to [0,1]

Unification of variable indicator X

MunicipalRiskIndex

Exposure Vulnerability Susceptibility Lack of coping capacity

Lack of adaptive capacity

Novorossiysk 0,02 0,05 0,40 0,26 0,37 0,58

Gelendzhik 0,03 0,07 0,42 0,47 0,25 0,55Sochi 0,03 0,06 0,51 0,66 0,39 0,47

Tuapsinsky 0,04 0,09 0,50 0,45 0,56 0,49

Sherbinovsky 0,08 0,11 0,70 0,65 0,68 0,79

Kanevsky 0,09 0,14 0,62 0,40 0,70 0,77Eysky 0,10 0,16 0,65 0,67 0,66 0,63Anapa 0,13 0,28 0,47 0,49 0,36 0,56Krymsky 0,14 0,24 0,58 0,67 0,59 0,49

Krasnoarmeysky 0,23 0,32 0,70 0,56 0,83 0,72

Temryuksky 0,26 0,53 0,49 0,45 0,74 0,27Kalininsky 0,35 0,47 0,74 0,63 0,86 0,75Primorsko-Akhtarsky 0,39 0,7 0,56 0,63 0,65 0,40

Slavyansky 0,45 0,75 0,59 0,43 0,71 0,65

Lack of capacity and susceptibility indeces

Exposure and vulnerability indeces

Municipal Risk Index

Future directions

1.Seasonal or day / night vulnerability

2. Damage estimation (Russian methodology) for case area

3. Workshop (elaboration of indicators)

4. Survey (verification of methodology, search for some indicators) on the case area

5. Experts‘ interviews (Emergency ministry, Hydrological service, Economic department of local government, etc.)

6. Resilience estimation (methodology, indicators, etc.)

Map from the GIS cadastral register. Temryuk city

Thank you for your attention!

Risk assessment of coastal zones in the European part of Russia.

Documents

Transcript of Risk assessment of coastal zones in the European part of Russia.