Risk Assessment and Reduction

Prof. David AlexanderProf. David AlexanderUniversity of Florence, ItalyUniversity of Florence, ItalyProf. David AlexanderProf. David AlexanderUniversity of Florence, ItalyUniversity of Florence, Italy

RISKRISKassessment and reductionassessment and reduction

RISKRISKassessment and reductionassessment and reduction

Trends in disaster losses are unsustainable.In the second half of the 20th centurythe world experienced increases of:

• 250% in the number of recorded disasters

• 500% in number of disasters with victims

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Economic losses in disasters

0

20

40

60

80

100

U.S

$ bi

llion

152 bn US$

• 500% in the number of affected people

• 1640% in the cost of insured damage.

• 1500% in the total cost of disasters

Then (1950s) Now (2009)

Under-reporting of disasters

More complete recording

Counting only direct effects

Quantifying indirect effects

Smaller population of hazardous places

Larger population, greater densities

Less inequality Growing inequality andmarginalisation

Less fixed capital at risk

Relentless accumulation of fixed capital

Simpler socio-economic networks

More complex networks

Imp

act

Emergencyisolation

During the

emergency

Em

erg

ency

resp

onse

Before theimpact

Pre

para

tions

and w

arn

ing

After th

e

impact P

erio

d o

f

quie

scen

ce

Riskm

itigationRecovery

and

reco

nstru

ctio

n

The Phases of DisasterThe Phases of DisasterThe Phases of DisasterThe Phases of Disaster

DisasterDisasterriskriskreductionreduction

DisasterDisasterriskriskreductionreduction

CivilCivilcontingenciescontingenciesmanagementmanagement

CivilCivilcontingenciescontingenciesmanagementmanagement

CivilCivilprotectionprotection

CivilCivilprotectionprotection

EmergencyEmergencypreparednesspreparedness

EmergencyEmergencypreparednesspreparedness

Risk assessmentRisk assessmentRisk assessmentRisk assessment

Human activity involves risk and benefitHuman activity involves risk and benefit

A working definition of safety:"a thing is safe if its risks

are judged to be acceptable."

A working definition of safety:"a thing is safe if its risks

are judged to be acceptable."

A definition of risk for human societies:"the probability that a certain number

of people will die in a given impactduring a given interval of time."

A definition of risk for human societies:"the probability that a certain number

of people will die in a given impactduring a given interval of time."

The components of risk

Physical disaster

Magnitude

Frequency

Duration

Human vulnerability

Exposition

Location of hazard

Environment

Resistance

Lifestyle and earnings

Health

Resilience

Adjustments

Risk reduction activities

Preparations for disaster

After Ian Davis (2005)After Ian Davis (2005)

Earthquake Tsunami Volcanic eruption Cyclone Tornado Snow avalanche Flood Drought Forest fire Transportation crash Industrial explosion Radioactive contamination Water pollution episode Riot Food adulteration Smoking Mountain climbingV

olu

nta

ry

I

nvolu

nta

ry Inte

nse D

iffu

se

Natural Anthropogenic

HazardHazardHazardHazard

x x VulnerabilityVulnerability x x VulnerabilityVulnerability

= = RiskRisk= = RiskRisk

Release rateRelease rateDose rateDose rateExposureExposure

Release rateRelease rateDose rateDose rateExposureExposure

ImpactImpactImpactImpact

ResponseResponseResponseResponse

A person who spends five minutes twiceA person who spends five minutes twicea day crossing a bridge that is at risk ofa day crossing a bridge that is at risk of

collapse is collapse is exposed exposed to that risk forto that risk for10/(60x24x7) = 0.00098 of a week10/(60x24x7) = 0.00098 of a week..

A person who spends five minutes twiceA person who spends five minutes twicea day crossing a bridge that is at risk ofa day crossing a bridge that is at risk of

collapse is collapse is exposed exposed to that risk forto that risk for10/(60x24x7) = 0.00098 of a week10/(60x24x7) = 0.00098 of a week..

• under threatunder threat for a given period of time for a given period of time• under threatunder threat for a given period of time for a given period of time

• at riskat risk to a given extent of to a given extent of possible losspossible loss

• at riskat risk to a given extent of to a given extent of possible losspossible loss

Different definitions of Different definitions of exposureexposure::Different definitions of Different definitions of exposureexposure::

Rt = E•Rs = E (H•V)Rt = E•Rs = E (H•V)RRtt = = total risktotal riskRRtt = = total risktotal risk

EE = elements at risk (population, built = elements at risk (population, built environment, economic activities)environment, economic activities)EE = elements at risk (population, built = elements at risk (population, built environment, economic activities)environment, economic activities)

RRss = = (H(H••V)V) = specific risk= specific riskRRss = = (H(H••V)V) = specific risk= specific risk

HH = hazard = hazardHH = hazard = hazard

VV = vulnerability = vulnerabilityVV = vulnerability = vulnerability

RELEASERATE

DOSERATE

EXPOSURE

An asset is notvulnerable unless

it is threatenedby something

A hazard is nothazardous unlessit threatenssomething

COPING,CAPACITY,

CAPABILITY,RESILIENCE

RISKRISKHAZARD VULNER-

ABILITY

ELEM

EN

TS

AT

ELEM

EN

TS

AT

RIS

KR

ISK

Mag

nit

ud

e

Fre

qu

en

cy

Logarithm ofreturn period

Magnitude

What does the magnitude-frequencyrule mean in real-life situations?

Vertical scales:Hazard: probability

of occurrenceVulnerability:

potential damageRisk: value of

probable costsand losses

Vertical scales:Hazard: probability

of occurrenceVulnerability:

potential damageRisk: value of

probable costsand losses

Fat-tailed distributionsof hazard: big events may

be more likely thanprobability theory suggests

Fat-tailed distributionsof hazard: big events may

be more likely thanprobability theory suggests

Haza

rd,

vu

lnera

bilit

y &

ris

k levels

Haza

rd,

vu

lnera

bilit

y &

ris

k levels

The relationship between hazardand vulnerability is non-linear

Intolerable riskand vulnerability

Tolerable riskand vulnerability

VULNERABILITY

RIS

K

Risk/vulnerability curve

Dis

aste

r th

res

ho

ld

Society sets

a level of risk

toleration

LowLow Hazard Hazard HighHigh

environment goods lifeenvironment goods life

Hig

hH

igh

Pro

bab

ilit

y

Pro

bab

ilit

y

Low

Low

cert

ain

ty

zero

cert

ain

ty

zero

high ri

sk

high ri

sk

mediu

m ri

sk

mediu

m ri

sklo

w risk

low ri

sk

In risk assessmentprobability and

consequence arenon-linearly related.

Society places arbitrarytolerance levels upon risk

Cost of risk reduction

Ris

k

Arbitrarytolerance

levelsCOST/RISK=1

Nu

mb

er

of

casu

alt

ies

Nu

mb

er

of

casu

alt

ies

Cost of retrofittinga building


unreinforcedunreinforced

completelyreinforced




largelyunreinforced

largelyunreinforced



Cost

per

life

saved

Cost

per

life

saved

The example of seismic retrofittingThe example of seismic retrofittingThe example of seismic retrofittingThe example of seismic retrofitting

Perceived risk is the assessment ofhazard made subjectively by individualsPerceived risk is the assessment ofhazard made subjectively by individuals

Risk aversionRisk aversion::• intolerance of a risk that isintolerance of a risk that is perceived to be unacceptably highperceived to be unacceptably high• desire to reduce it to negligible levelsdesire to reduce it to negligible levels..

Risk aversionRisk aversion::• intolerance of a risk that isintolerance of a risk that is perceived to be unacceptably highperceived to be unacceptably high• desire to reduce it to negligible levelsdesire to reduce it to negligible levels..

Objective risk can be calculated from statistical data on past events.Objective risk can be calculated from statistical data on past events.

Not all risks can be measured.Not all risks can be measured.Not all risks can be measured.Not all risks can be measured.

Voluntary -- Involuntary

ChronicChronic ---- CatastrophicCatastrophic

Common (tolerated)

-- Exceptional (dreaded)

InjuriousInjurious ---- FatalFatal

Known to those who are exposed

-- Unknown to those who are exposed

Known to Known to sciencescience

---- Unknown to Unknown to sciencescience

Can be mitigated or

controlled

-- Cannot be mitigated or controlled

OldOld ---- NewNew

A risk classificationA risk classificationA risk classificationA risk classification

HOW PEOPLEHOW PEOPLEPERCEIVE RISKPERCEIVE RISK

ABILITY TOABILITY TOPERCEIVE RISKPERCEIVE RISK

EXPERIENCEEXPERIENCEWITH RISKWITH RISK

PROPENSITYPROPENSITYTO DENY RISKTO DENY RISK

ACCESS TOACCESS TOINFORMATIONINFORMATION

ABILITY TOABILITY TOREDUCE RISK:REDUCE RISK:• money money • expertise expertise • knowledgeknowledge• resources resources

WHETHERWHETHERRISK HASRISK HAS

BEEN ABATEDBEEN ABATED

PEOPLE'S IDEASPEOPLE'S IDEASABOUT POSSIBLEABOUT POSSIBLE

DAMAGE AND LOSSDAMAGE AND LOSS

John Adams's "risk thermostat"John Adams's "risk thermostat"John Adams's "risk thermostat"John Adams's "risk thermostat"

BalancingbehaviourBalancingbehaviour

"Accidents""Accidents"Perceiveddanger

Perceiveddanger

RewardsRewardsPropensity totake risks

Propensity totake risks

Cultural filterCultural filterCultural filterCultural filter

Cultural filterCultural filterCultural filterCultural filter

Filter

PerceptionPerception

CultureCulture

DecisionDecision

ActionAction

ResultResult

PositivePositive NegativeNegative

RiskRisk

AccurateAccurate InaccurateInaccurate

Vulnerability: the mainVulnerability: the maincomponent of riskcomponent of risk

Vulnerability: the mainVulnerability: the maincomponent of riskcomponent of risk

Vulnerability is...Vulnerability is...Vulnerability is...Vulnerability is...

• the actual or potential the actual or potential degree of lossdegree of loss resulting from a particular hazard orresulting from a particular hazard or set of hazards of a given magnitudeset of hazards of a given magnitude

• the actual or potential the actual or potential degree of lossdegree of loss resulting from a particular hazard orresulting from a particular hazard or set of hazards of a given magnitudeset of hazards of a given magnitude

• the potential for the potential for harmharm• the potential for the potential for harmharm

• something that is something that is constructed sociallyconstructed socially• something that is something that is constructed sociallyconstructed socially

• the inverse of the inverse of capabilitycapability (coping, (coping, resilienceresilience))..

• the inverse of the inverse of capabilitycapability (coping, (coping, resilienceresilience))..

Vulnerability management

Disaster managementDisaster managementDisaster managementDisaster management

Risk managementRisk managementRisk managementRisk management

Crisis managementCrisis managementCrisis managementCrisis management

Emergency managementEmergency managementEmergency managementEmergency management

HypotheticalHypothetical

ConcreteConcrete ConcentratedConcentrated

DiffuseDiffuse

Total: life isTotal: life isgenerallygenerallyprecariousprecarious

Total: life isTotal: life isgenerallygenerallyprecariousprecarious

Residual: caused byResidual: caused bylack of modernisationlack of modernisationResidual: caused byResidual: caused by

lack of modernisationlack of modernisation

NewlyNewlygenerated:generated:caused bycaused bychanges inchanges incircumstancescircumstances

NewlyNewlygenerated:generated:caused bycaused bychanges inchanges incircumstancescircumstances

Delinquent:Delinquent:caused bycaused bycorruption,corruption,negligence,negligence,etc.etc.

Delinquent:Delinquent:caused bycaused bycorruption,corruption,negligence,negligence,etc.etc.

Economic:Economic:people lackpeople lackadequateadequateoccupationoccupation

Economic:Economic:people lackpeople lackadequateadequateoccupationoccupation

Technological,Technological,technocratic:technocratic:caused bycaused bythe riskinessthe riskinessof technologyof technology

Technological,Technological,technocratic:technocratic:caused bycaused bythe riskinessthe riskinessof technologyof technology

A model of vulnerability typesA model of vulnerability typesA model of vulnerability typesA model of vulnerability types

VulnerabilityVulnerability

Primary• cause and

effect

Secondary• interaction of

causes• coincidences

Complex•

complicated

interactions

VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY

Total vulnerabilityequals

Risk amplification processesminus

Risk mitigation measuresplus or minus

Risk perception factors

Total vulnerabilityequals

Risk amplification processesminus

Risk mitigation measuresplus or minus

Risk perception factors

Human culturesHuman culturesconstraints,constraints,

opportunitiesopportunities

Human culturesHuman culturesconstraints,constraints,

opportunitiesopportunities

HistoryHistorysingle andsingle andcumulativecumulativeimpact of pastimpact of pastdisastersdisasters

HistoryHistorysingle andsingle andcumulativecumulativeimpact of pastimpact of pastdisastersdisasters

Causes of disasterCauses of disasternatural geophysical,natural geophysical,technological, socialtechnological, social

Causes of disasterCauses of disasternatural geophysical,natural geophysical,technological, socialtechnological, social

AdaptationAdaptationto riskto risk

IMPACTSIMPACTSIMPACTSIMPACTS

Large disasterLarge disasterLarge disasterLarge disaster

ExpenditureExpenditureExpenditureExpenditureComplacencyComplacencyComplacencyComplacency

Risk-expenditure cycleRisk-expenditure cycleRisk-expenditure cycleRisk-expenditure cycle

Deaths, injuries,Deaths, injuries,damage, disruption,damage, disruption,hardshiphardship

Deaths, injuries,Deaths, injuries,damage, disruption,damage, disruption,hardshiphardship

ReviewReviewReviewReview

Reduced riskReduced riskReduced riskReduced riskNo disasterNo disasterNo disasterNo disaster

ReducedReducedexpenditureexpenditure

ReducedReducedexpenditureexpenditure

Increased riskIncreased riskIncreased riskIncreased risk

DisasterDisaster DisasterDisaster

Public Public outcryoutcry Public Public outcryoutcry RhetoricRhetoricRhetoricRhetoric

LogicLogicLogicLogic

LawsLawsLawsLaws

Safety Safety cultureculture Safety Safety cultureculture

The evolution ofThe evolution ofa safety culturea safety cultureThe evolution ofThe evolution ofa safety culturea safety culture

What exactly is resilience?What exactly is resilience?What exactly is resilience?What exactly is resilience?

Vulnerability = 1 / resilienceVulnerability = 1 / resilienceVulnerability = 1 / resilienceVulnerability = 1 / resilience

Resilience:Resilience: mechanisms for avoiding mechanisms for avoidingimpacts or absorbing them by copingimpacts or absorbing them by copingResilience:Resilience: mechanisms for avoiding mechanisms for avoidingimpacts or absorbing them by copingimpacts or absorbing them by coping

Coping strategies:Coping strategies:• indigenousindigenous• importedimported

Coping strategies:Coping strategies:• indigenousindigenous• importedimported

OrganisationOrganisationOrganisationOrganisation ResourcesResourcesResourcesResources

Self-organisationSelf-organisationSelf-organisationSelf-organisation

ImposedImposedorganisationorganisationImposedImposedorganisationorganisation

VolunteerismVolunteerismVolunteerismVolunteerism

Community disaster planningCommunity disaster planningCommunity disaster planningCommunity disaster planning

Laws, protocols, directivesLaws, protocols, directivesLaws, protocols, directivesLaws, protocols, directives

Standards, norms, guidelinesStandards, norms, guidelinesStandards, norms, guidelinesStandards, norms, guidelines

CommunityCommunityresourcesresources

CommunityCommunityresourcesresources

GovernmentalGovernmentalresourcesresources

GovernmentalGovernmentalresourcesresources

DonationsDonationsDonationsDonations

International resourcesInternational resourcesInternational resourcesInternational resources

The four dimensions of RESILIENCE:-The four dimensions of RESILIENCE:-The four dimensions of RESILIENCE:-The four dimensions of RESILIENCE:-

• robustnessrobustness: resist stress: resist stress without loss of functionwithout loss of function

• robustnessrobustness: resist stress: resist stress without loss of functionwithout loss of function

• redundancyredundancy: ability to continue: ability to continue functioning during periods of disruptionfunctioning during periods of disruption

• redundancyredundancy: ability to continue: ability to continue functioning during periods of disruptionfunctioning during periods of disruption

• ingenuityingenuity: ability to identify: ability to identify problems and mobilise resourcesproblems and mobilise resources

• ingenuityingenuity: ability to identify: ability to identify problems and mobilise resourcesproblems and mobilise resources

• rapidityrapidity: ability to satisfy objectives: ability to satisfy objectives and priorities so as to reduce lossesand priorities so as to reduce losses..

• rapidityrapidity: ability to satisfy objectives: ability to satisfy objectives and priorities so as to reduce lossesand priorities so as to reduce losses..

Recoveryafter disaster

Recoveryafter disaster

Physical recoveryPhysical recoveryBuildings, infrastructure, transport, agriculture, etc.Buildings, infrastructure, transport, agriculture, etc.

Physical recoveryPhysical recoveryBuildings, infrastructure, transport, agriculture, etc.Buildings, infrastructure, transport, agriculture, etc.

Soci

al a

nd

Soci

al a

nd

psy

cholo

gic

al

psy

cholo

gic

al

reco

very

reco

very

Soci

al a

nd

Soci

al a

nd

psy

cholo

gic

al

psy

cholo

gic

al

reco

very

reco

very

Reducing post-Reducing post-traumatic stresstraumatic stressReducing post-Reducing post-

traumatic stresstraumatic stress

Eco

nom

ic

Eco

nom

ic

recovery

recovery

Eco

nom

ic

Eco

nom

ic

recovery

recovery

Re-establishingRe-establishingproduction andproduction and

economic activitieseconomic activities

Re-establishingRe-establishingproduction andproduction and

economic activitieseconomic activities

The recovery triangleThe recovery triangleThe recovery triangleThe recovery triangle

Political,cultural and

environmentalcontext..

How to estimate vulnerability in the fieldHow to estimate vulnerability in the fieldHow to estimate vulnerability in the fieldHow to estimate vulnerability in the field

Elements:Elements: Elements:Elements:

• buildingsbuildings and physical structures and physical structures• buildingsbuildings and physical structures and physical structures

• lifelines and lifelines and infrastructureinfrastructure• lifelines and lifelines and infrastructureinfrastructure

• patterns of patterns of activityactivity

that put people at riskthat put people at risk

• patterns of patterns of activityactivity

that put people at riskthat put people at risk

• perceptionsperceptions of hazard of hazard• perceptionsperceptions of hazard of hazard

• concentrations and concentrations and patternspatterns

of elements at riskof elements at risk..

• concentrations and concentrations and patternspatterns

of elements at riskof elements at risk..

Vulnerability in theVulnerability in theconnection betweenconnection betweenwall and joistwall and joist leads leadsto collapse of the to collapse of the structure in anstructure in anearthquakeearthquake

Random rubbleRandom rubblemasonrymasonry with withpowdery limepowdery limemortarmortar is a is amajor sourcemajor sourceof vulnerabilityof vulnerabilityin historic andin historic andold buildings.old buildings.

Random rubbleRandom rubblemasonrymasonry with withpowdery limepowdery limemortarmortar is a is amajor sourcemajor sourceof vulnerabilityof vulnerabilityin historic andin historic andold buildings.old buildings.

Collapse often beginsat roof level if roofstructure is too rigidand poorly tied tovertical load-bearingmembers.

Collapse often beginsat roof level if roofstructure is too rigidand poorly tied tovertical load-bearingmembers.

Cornices,parapets and other Cornices,parapets and other façadefaçadedetailsdetails are particularly vulnerable to are particularly vulnerable to

damage in earthquakes.damage in earthquakes.

Cornices,parapets and other Cornices,parapets and other façadefaçadedetailsdetails are particularly vulnerable to are particularly vulnerable to

damage in earthquakes.damage in earthquakes.

Inadequately constructed frame buildingsInadequately constructed frame buildingsare vulnerable to are vulnerable to progressive collapseprogressive collapse

Inadequately constructed frame buildingsInadequately constructed frame buildingsare vulnerable to are vulnerable to progressive collapseprogressive collapse

Battering by adjacentBattering by adjacentbuildings with differentbuildings with different

fundamental periodsfundamental periodsof vibration.of vibration.

Battering by adjacentBattering by adjacentbuildings with differentbuildings with different

fundamental periodsfundamental periodsof vibration.of vibration.

Zone of interferenceZone of interferenceZone of interferenceZone of interference

Differential movementsDifferential movementsDifferential movementsDifferential movements

Pre-earthquakePre-earthquakeroof-lineroof-linePre-earthquakePre-earthquakeroof-lineroof-line

ReplacementReplacementstoneworkstoneworkReplacementReplacementstoneworkstonework

StairwellsStairwellsare oftenare oftenthe most vulnerablethe most vulnerablepart of the buildingpart of the buildingduring earthquakes, andduring earthquakes, andthe first part that peoplethe first part that peopleuse as they try to use as they try to escape.escape.

StairwellsStairwellsare oftenare oftenthe most vulnerablethe most vulnerablepart of the buildingpart of the buildingduring earthquakes, andduring earthquakes, andthe first part that peoplethe first part that peopleuse as they try to use as they try to escape.escape.

Self-protection during earthquakes andSelf-protection during earthquakes andtornadoes is tornadoes is NOT NOT fostered by the myth thatfostered by the myth thatit is safe to shelter under desks and tables.it is safe to shelter under desks and tables.

Self-protection during earthquakes andSelf-protection during earthquakes andtornadoes is tornadoes is NOT NOT fostered by the myth thatfostered by the myth thatit is safe to shelter under desks and tables.it is safe to shelter under desks and tables.

Seismic landslideSeismic landslidetakes centre outtakes centre out

of town three daysof town three daysafter large earthquakeafter large earthquake

Seismic landslideSeismic landslidetakes centre outtakes centre out

of town three daysof town three daysafter large earthquakeafter large earthquake

Rotational slumping:Rotational slumping:the ancient (1777)the ancient (1777)and modern (1982)and modern (1982)

Rotational slumping:Rotational slumping:the ancient (1777)the ancient (1777)and modern (1982)and modern (1982)

SeaSeacoastcoastSeaSea

coastcoast

MassiveMassivelandslidelandslideMassiveMassivelandslidelandslide

PushPusheffecteffectPushPusheffecteffect

UrbanUrbanareasareasUrbanUrbanareasareas

Forward thrustForward thrustForward thrustForward thrust

Nodes areNodes arefirst to failfirst to failNodes areNodes arefirst to failfirst to fail

ColumnsColumnsshear throughshear throughunder sustainedunder sustainedpressurepressure

ColumnsColumnsshear throughshear throughunder sustainedunder sustainedpressurepressure

Landslide directionLandslide directionLandslide directionLandslide direction

LandslideLandslideheadscarpheadscarpLandslideLandslideheadscarpheadscarp

ExtensionalExtensionalmovementmovementExtensionalExtensionalmovementmovement

Pull-apartPull-apartupslope ofupslope ofheadscarpheadscarp

Pull-apartPull-apartupslope ofupslope ofheadscarpheadscarp

SpontaneousSpontaneoustoppling failuretoppling failure

in unconsolidatedin unconsolidatedsandssands

SpontaneousSpontaneoustoppling failuretoppling failure

in unconsolidatedin unconsolidatedsandssands

BackwardBackwardrotation ofrotation of

toppled blockstoppled blocks

BackwardBackwardrotation ofrotation of

toppled blockstoppled blocks

Bedrooms whereBedrooms wherefour people diedfour people diedBedrooms whereBedrooms wherefour people diedfour people died

Spontaneous total failure of foundationsSpontaneous total failure of foundationsSpontaneous total failure of foundationsSpontaneous total failure of foundations

Spontaneous totalSpontaneous totalfailure of r-c frame bldgfailure of r-c frame bldg

Spontaneous totalSpontaneous totalfailure of r-c frame bldgfailure of r-c frame bldg

...with some...with someforward thrustforward thrust

Historic urban landscapeHistoric urban landscape(with castle, etc.)(with castle, etc.)Historic urban landscapeHistoric urban landscape(with castle, etc.)(with castle, etc.)

and a nice, historicand a nice, historicurban landslideurban landslideand a nice, historicand a nice, historicurban landslideurban landslide

Tranquil Alpine sceneTranquil Alpine sceneTranquil Alpine sceneTranquil Alpine scene

...with debris flow...with debris flow...with debris flow...with debris flow

...and several...and severalbrand-new hotelsbrand-new hotelsat its footat its foot

...and several...and severalbrand-new hotelsbrand-new hotelsat its footat its foot

Unstable slopes of

Unstable slopes of

clastic weathered rocks


subject to mass movements


Unstable slopes of

Unstable slopes of





ExposureExposureExposureExposure SensitivitySensitivitySensitivitySensitivity

Capacity toCapacity toadaptadapt

Capacity toCapacity toadaptadapt

VULNERA-VULNERA-BILITYBILITY


Dimensions ofDimensions ofvulnerability:vulnerability:

• exposureexposure• sensitivitysensitivity• capacitycapacity

to adaptto adapt

Dimensions ofDimensions ofvulnerability:vulnerability:

• exposureexposure• sensitivitysensitivity• capacitycapacity

to adaptto adapt

ComponentsComponentsof the dimensionsof the dimensions

ComponentsComponentsof the dimensionsof the dimensions

Measures ofMeasures ofthe componentsthe components

Measures ofMeasures ofthe componentsthe components

VulnerabilityVulnerability• DimensionsDimensions• ComponentsComponents• MeasuresMeasures

VulnerabilityVulnerability• DimensionsDimensions• ComponentsComponents• MeasuresMeasures

EsposureEsposureEsposureEsposure SensitivitySensitivitySensitivitySensitivity

CapacityCapacityto adaptto adaptCapacityCapacityto adaptto adapt



Physical dimensionsPhysical dimensionsPhysical dimensionsPhysical dimensions

Age of theAge of theinfrastructureinfrastructure

Age of theAge of theinfrastructureinfrastructure

Age andAge andincome of theincome of the

populationpopulation

Age andAge andincome of theincome of the

populationpopulationDemo-graphy

Technology

Res-ponse

ManagementstructureAccess to

information andtechnology

Exposedres-ources

Exposedpopulation

IntensityIntensityIntensityIntensity

FrequencyFrequencyFrequencyFrequency

LocationLocationLocationLocation

NumberNumberNumberNumber

Wealth andWealth andwell beingwell being

Wealth andWealth andwell beingwell being

TaxTaxrevenuesrevenues

TaxTaxrevenuesrevenues

EmergencyEmergencyplansplans

EmergencyEmergencyplansplans

Level ofLevel ofeducationeducationLevel ofLevel of

educationeducation

InformationInformationservicesservices

InformationInformationservicesservices

Risk & disaster managementRisk & disaster management Risk & disaster managementRisk & disaster management

Risks must be:Risks must be:

• identified• identified• estimated• estimated• analysed• analysed• compared• compared

• communicated to people who are at risk• communicated to people who are at risk• managed.• managed.

Risk identificationRisk identification: what are the risks?: what are the risks?Risk identificationRisk identification: what are the risks?: what are the risks?

Risk assessment or analysisRisk assessment or analysis::how serious are the riskshow serious are the risksand what do they consist of?and what do they consist of?

Risk assessment or analysisRisk assessment or analysis::how serious are the riskshow serious are the risksand what do they consist of?and what do they consist of?

Risk managementRisk management: how: howcan risks be reduced?can risks be reduced?Risk managementRisk management: how: howcan risks be reduced?can risks be reduced?

Risk perception and communicationRisk perception and communication::how can risks be communicated tohow can risks be communicated tothe public, mass media or others?the public, mass media or others?

Risk perception and communicationRisk perception and communication::how can risks be communicated tohow can risks be communicated tothe public, mass media or others?the public, mass media or others?

How experts deal with risk:How experts deal with risk:How experts deal with risk:How experts deal with risk:

Risk assessment procedure:Risk assessment procedure:Risk assessment procedure:Risk assessment procedure:

• identify hazardidentify hazard: identify and: identify and characterize source of hazardcharacterize source of hazard• identify hazardidentify hazard: identify and: identify and characterize source of hazardcharacterize source of hazard• assess dose-responseassess dose-response: estimate: estimate relationship between exposure andrelationship between exposure and probability of negative effectsprobability of negative effects

• assess dose-responseassess dose-response: estimate: estimate relationship between exposure andrelationship between exposure and probability of negative effectsprobability of negative effects

• assess exposureassess exposure: determine the: determine the intensity, frequency and durationintensity, frequency and duration of exposure to the source of harmof exposure to the source of harm

• assess exposureassess exposure: determine the: determine the intensity, frequency and durationintensity, frequency and duration of exposure to the source of harmof exposure to the source of harm• characterise riskcharacterise risk: estimate the: estimate the level of risk in relation to dose,level of risk in relation to dose, exposure and responseexposure and response..

• characterise riskcharacterise risk: estimate the: estimate the level of risk in relation to dose,level of risk in relation to dose, exposure and responseexposure and response..

HAZARDHAZARD


EXPOSUREEXPOSURE

HAZARDHAZARD


EXPOSUREEXPOSURE

LO

WLO

W

MED

IUM

MED

IUM

HIG

HH

IGH

LO

WLO

W

MED

IUM

MED

IUM

HIG

HH

IGH

A simpleA simplerisk assessmentrisk assessment

matrixmatrix

A simpleA simplerisk assessmentrisk assessment

matrixmatrix

SeveritSeverityy

negligiblenegligible

marginalmarginal

moderatemoderate

seriousserious

catastrophiccatastrophic

SeveritSeverityy

negligiblenegligible

marginalmarginal

moderatemoderate

seriousserious

catastrophiccatastrophic

Pro

bab

ilityP

rob

ab

ilityof

of

occu

rren

ce

occu

rren

ce

freq

uen

tfre

qu

en

t

pro

bab

lep

rob

ab

le

occasio

nal

occasio

nal

imp

rob

ab

leim

pro

bab

le

imp

ossib

leim

possib

le

Pro

bab

ilityP

rob

ab

ilityof

of

occu

rren

ce

occu

rren

ce

freq

uen

tfre

qu

en

t

pro

bab

lep

rob

ab

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occasio

nal

occasio

nal

imp

rob

ab

leim

pro

bab

le

imp

ossib

leim

possib

leacceptableacceptable significantsignificant criticalcriticalRisk level:Risk level:Risk level:Risk level:

BCM risk assessment matrixBCM risk assessment matrixBCM risk assessment matrixBCM risk assessment matrix

Constructing a Constructing a risk registerrisk registerConstructing a Constructing a risk registerrisk register

• all employees should be encouragedall employees should be encouraged to contribute to the to contribute to the identificationidentification,, discussiondiscussion and and explorationexploration of risksof risks

• all employees should be encouragedall employees should be encouraged to contribute to the to contribute to the identificationidentification,, discussiondiscussion and and explorationexploration of risksof risks

• institute a institute a "no fault, no blame""no fault, no blame" cultureculture for the identification of risksfor the identification of risks• institute a institute a "no fault, no blame""no fault, no blame" cultureculture for the identification of risksfor the identification of risks

• appoint and train a appoint and train a risk managerrisk manager in each departmentin each department of the organisationof the organisation• appoint and train a appoint and train a risk managerrisk manager in each departmentin each department of the organisationof the organisation

• have frequent and open have frequent and open discussionsdiscussions about how to manage the risksabout how to manage the risks..• have frequent and open have frequent and open discussionsdiscussions about how to manage the risksabout how to manage the risks..

Riskregister

Riskregister

Company Board and CEOCompany Board and CEOCompany Board and CEOCompany Board and CEO

Business continuity management boardBusiness continuity management boardBusiness continuity management boardBusiness continuity management board

BCM project team (and leader)BCM project team (and leader)• direct projectdirect project

•ensure appropriate resourcesensure appropriate resources• ensure qualityensure quality

BCM project team (and leader)BCM project team (and leader)• direct projectdirect project

•ensure appropriate resourcesensure appropriate resources• ensure qualityensure quality

[Departmental][Departmental]working groupworking group




Risk analysisRisk analysis should express:- should express:-Risk analysisRisk analysis should express:- should express:-

• probabilityprobability of event of given size of event of given size• probabilityprobability of event of given size of event of given size

• impact impact magnitudemagnitude / population size / population size• impact impact magnitudemagnitude / population size / population size

• basic basic conditionsconditions and and assumptionsassumptions• basic basic conditionsconditions and and assumptionsassumptions

• uncertaintyuncertainty and and confidenceconfidence levels levels• uncertaintyuncertainty and and confidenceconfidence levels levels

• how predictions were how predictions were obtainedobtained..• how predictions were how predictions were obtainedobtained..

• singlesingle or or multiplemultiple risks considered? risks considered?• singlesingle or or multiplemultiple risks considered? risks considered?

• totaltotal or or partialpartial risk? risk?• totaltotal or or partialpartial risk? risk?

• voluntaryvoluntary or or involuntaryinvoluntary exposure? exposure?• voluntaryvoluntary or or involuntaryinvoluntary exposure? exposure?

• how analysis will affecthow analysis will affect managementmanagement of the risk of the risk..• how analysis will affecthow analysis will affect managementmanagement of the risk of the risk..

Risk analysisRisk analysis should express:- should express:-Risk analysisRisk analysis should express:- should express:-

Factors that limit risk mitigation:Factors that limit risk mitigation:Factors that limit risk mitigation:Factors that limit risk mitigation:

• environmentalenvironmental hazard levels hazard levels• environmentalenvironmental hazard levels hazard levels

• human human activitiesactivities• human human activitiesactivities

• unclear unclear responsibilitiesresponsibilities• unclear unclear responsibilitiesresponsibilities

• poor understanding ofpoor understanding of organisational organisational networksnetworks• poor understanding ofpoor understanding of organisational organisational networksnetworks

• inadequate inadequate trainingtraining and education and education..• inadequate inadequate trainingtraining and education and education..

Risk communication messagesRisk communication messages should:-should:-

Risk communication messagesRisk communication messages should:-should:-

• come from an come from an officialofficial source source• come from an come from an officialofficial source source

• clearly clearly explainexplain risk and its likelihood risk and its likelihood• clearly clearly explainexplain risk and its likelihood risk and its likelihood

• say what sort of say what sort of impactimpact is expected is expected• say what sort of say what sort of impactimpact is expected is expected

• describe probable describe probable effecteffect of impact of impact• describe probable describe probable effecteffect of impact of impact

• and where to get more and where to get more informationinformation..• and where to get more and where to get more informationinformation..

• explain what explain what to doto do......• explain what explain what to doto do......

Risk communication messagesRisk communication messagesshould:-should:-

Risk communication messagesRisk communication messagesshould:-should:-

• present information present information in sequencein sequence• present information present information in sequencein sequence

• encourage people to encourage people to shareshare information information with colleagues, family and friendswith colleagues, family and friends• encourage people to encourage people to shareshare information information with colleagues, family and friendswith colleagues, family and friends

• repeatrepeat message many times message many times..• repeatrepeat message many times message many times..

• explain explain importanceimportance of message of message and the need for actionand the need for action• explain explain importanceimportance of message of message and the need for actionand the need for action

The essence of disaster management:-The essence of disaster management:-The essence of disaster management:-The essence of disaster management:-

To tackle pressing needs withmaximum efficiency and speed butwith scarce resources and in the

absence of necessary information

To tackle pressing needs withmaximum efficiency and speed butwith scarce resources and in the

absence of necessary information

BUT emergency planning is still a young field:it lacks international consensus on standards,

procedures, and legal and institutional imperatives

BUT emergency planning is still a young field:it lacks international consensus on standards,

procedures, and legal and institutional imperatives

Modern emergency plans are Modern emergency plans are genericgeneric(("all hazards""all hazards"):-):-

Modern emergency plans are Modern emergency plans are genericgeneric(("all hazards""all hazards"):-):-

• adaptableadaptable to all emergencies to all emergencies• adaptableadaptable to all emergencies to all emergencies

• focussed on the emergencies deemedfocussed on the emergencies deemed most likely to occurmost likely to occur in the local area in the local area• focussed on the emergencies deemedfocussed on the emergencies deemed most likely to occurmost likely to occur in the local area in the local area

• technical sophisticationtechnical sophistication must must be balanced by be balanced by ease of useease of use..• technical sophisticationtechnical sophistication must must be balanced by be balanced by ease of useease of use..

Emergencyenvironment

Setprocedures

Setprocedures

Co-ordinatingplan

Co-ordinatingplan

SpontaneousimprovisationSpontaneousimprovisation

Emergencyenvironment

Setprocedures

Setprocedures Co-ordinating

planCo-ordinating

plan

SpontaneousimprovisationSpontaneousimprovisation

Continuityof

production

Preservation oforganisation's

good name

Safeguardingof assets

Maintenanceof marketposition

Generic crisis typologyGeneric crisis typologyGeneric crisis typologyGeneric crisis typology

Some typical risks:-Some typical risks:-Some typical risks:-Some typical risks:-

• loss of customer loss of customer recordsrecords• loss of customer loss of customer recordsrecords

• breakdown of the breakdown of the supply chainsupply chain• breakdown of the breakdown of the supply chainsupply chain

• failure of failure of essential services essential services on whichon which production or customer support dependsproduction or customer support depends• failure of failure of essential services essential services on whichon which production or customer support dependsproduction or customer support depends

• inability to inability to deliver the product deliver the product for afor a significant period of time for any reasonsignificant period of time for any reason• inability to inability to deliver the product deliver the product for afor a significant period of time for any reasonsignificant period of time for any reason

• negative negative perceptionsperceptions of the company by of the company by clients, customers or the publicclients, customers or the public..• negative negative perceptionsperceptions of the company by of the company by clients, customers or the publicclients, customers or the public..

Some reasons why supplies may fail:-Some reasons why supplies may fail:-Some reasons why supplies may fail:-Some reasons why supplies may fail:-

• industrial action industrial action halts productionhalts production• industrial action industrial action halts productionhalts production

• faulty componentsfaulty components leads to product recall leads to product recall• faulty componentsfaulty components leads to product recall leads to product recall

• supplier supplier ceases trading ceases trading (goes into(goes into bankruptcy or receivership)bankruptcy or receivership)• supplier supplier ceases trading ceases trading (goes into(goes into bankruptcy or receivership)bankruptcy or receivership)

• fire, flood or fire, flood or natural disasternatural disaster strikes supplier's premisesstrikes supplier's premises• fire, flood or fire, flood or natural disasternatural disaster strikes supplier's premisesstrikes supplier's premises

• computercomputer systems fail systems fail..• computercomputer systems fail systems fail..

Possible impact of interruptionsPossible impact of interruptionsto supplies and suppliers:-to supplies and suppliers:-

Possible impact of interruptionsPossible impact of interruptionsto supplies and suppliers:-to supplies and suppliers:-

• loss of independenceloss of independence• inability to fulfill ordersinability to fulfill orders• loss of confidential or sensitive info.loss of confidential or sensitive info.• increased exposure to fraudincreased exposure to fraud and unauthorised transactionsand unauthorised transactions• loss of dataloss of data• loss of audit trailloss of audit trail• failure of purchasing andfailure of purchasing and scheduling software systemsscheduling software systems• legal liability due to failure tolegal liability due to failure to fulfill contractual obligationsfulfill contractual obligations..

• loss of independenceloss of independence• inability to fulfill ordersinability to fulfill orders• loss of confidential or sensitive info.loss of confidential or sensitive info.• increased exposure to fraudincreased exposure to fraud and unauthorised transactionsand unauthorised transactions• loss of dataloss of data• loss of audit trailloss of audit trail• failure of purchasing andfailure of purchasing and scheduling software systemsscheduling software systems• legal liability due to failure tolegal liability due to failure to fulfill contractual obligationsfulfill contractual obligations..

CRISIS

OPERATIONSOPERATIONS(ACHIEVEMENTS)(ACHIEVEMENTS)

OPERATIONSOPERATIONS(ACHIEVEMENTS)(ACHIEVEMENTS)REPUTATIONREPUTATIONREPUTATIONREPUTATION

PerceptionPerceptionPerceptionPerception

CommunicationCommunicationCommunicationCommunication

ConcreteConcretedevelopmentsdevelopments

• positivepositive• negativenegative

ConcreteConcretedevelopmentsdevelopments

• positivepositive• negativenegative

Some risk reduction measures:-Some risk reduction measures:-Some risk reduction measures:-Some risk reduction measures:-

• stock reductionstock reduction• separation of high-risk storageseparation of high-risk storage• design changesdesign changes• safety trainingsafety training• data securitydata security• data storage redundancydata storage redundancy• product and building securityproduct and building security..

• stock reductionstock reduction• separation of high-risk storageseparation of high-risk storage• design changesdesign changes• safety trainingsafety training• data securitydata security• data storage redundancydata storage redundancy• product and building securityproduct and building security..

PROVINCIAL,COUNTY,STATE ORREGIONALDISASTER

PLAN

PROVINCIAL,COUNTY,STATE ORREGIONALDISASTER

PLAN

NATIONALDISASTER

PLAN

NATIONALDISASTER

PLAN

CITYDISASTER

PLAN

AIRPORTEMERGENCY

PLAN

INDUSTRIALCONTINGENCY

PLAN

COMMERCIALFACILITIES

CONTINGENCYPLAN

EMSNETWORK

CONTINGENCYPLAN

EMSNETWORK

CONTINGENCYPLAN

HOSPITALEMSPLAN

HOSPITALEMSPLAN

MEDICALFACILITY

PLAN

BCMBCM

Where businessWhere businesscontinuitycontinuitymanagementmanagementfits in:fits in:

Where businessWhere businesscontinuitycontinuitymanagementmanagementfits in:fits in:

Recovery andRecovery andreconstructionreconstruction

planningplanning

Recovery andRecovery andreconstructionreconstruction

planningplanning

Strategic,Strategic,tactical & operationaltactical & operationalplanningplanning

Strategic,Strategic,tactical & operationaltactical & operationalplanningplanning

AftermathAftermath

DisasterDisasterDisasterDisaster

MonitoringMonitoringpredictionprediction& warning& warning

MonitoringMonitoringpredictionprediction& warning& warning

Permanent emergency planPermanent emergency planPermanent emergency planPermanent emergency plan

Business continuity planBusiness continuity planBusiness continuity planBusiness continuity plan

An crisis management plan:-An crisis management plan:-An crisis management plan:-An crisis management plan:-

• should be should be simplesimple in conceptionin conception• should be should be simplesimple in conceptionin conception

• is a is a living document living document that needsthat needs continual updatingcontinual updating• is a is a living document living document that needsthat needs continual updatingcontinual updating

• should define the should define the ground rules ground rules forfor co-ordinating emergency activitiesco-ordinating emergency activities• should define the should define the ground rules ground rules forfor co-ordinating emergency activitiesco-ordinating emergency activities

• should be able to deal with should be able to deal with internallyinternally and externally generated crisesand externally generated crises..• should be able to deal with should be able to deal with internallyinternally and externally generated crisesand externally generated crises..

Specifying an incidentSpecifying an incidentmanagement structure:-management structure:-Specifying an incidentSpecifying an incident

management structure:-management structure:-

• call-outcall-out arrangementsarrangements• call-outcall-out arrangementsarrangements

• means of means of co-ordinatingco-ordinating groups and teamsgroups and teams• means of means of co-ordinatingco-ordinating groups and teamsgroups and teams

• command and controlcommand and control structuresstructures• command and controlcommand and control structuresstructures

• communicationscommunications channels & channels & media contactmedia contact• communicationscommunications channels & channels & media contactmedia contact

• inter-departmental and inter-inter-departmental and inter- organisationalorganisational co-ordination measuresco-ordination measures..• inter-departmental and inter-inter-departmental and inter- organisationalorganisational co-ordination measuresco-ordination measures..

Construction of operationalscenarios of hazard, risk, impact

and emergency response

Existence of various statesof hazard and vulnerability

Census ofavailable resources

Emergency action plan

Pro

cess

es o

f co

nst

ant

adap

tati

on

of

the

pla

n

Revis

ion

TestingTesting Evaluation

ActivationActivation DisasterDisaster

Initial study

DisseminationDissemination Information

FormulationFormulationand updatingand updating

of planof plan

Stakeholders'input Training

PlanPlan

Apparentchaos

Apparentchaos ModelModel

Testing

DisasterDisasterDisasterDisaster

Outcome

Feedback

Feed

back

Evaluation

InitiatingInitiatingthe processthe processInitiatingInitiating

the processthe processPlanning forPlanning for

businessbusinesscontinuitycontinuity

Planning forPlanning forbusinessbusiness

continuitycontinuity

ImplementingImplementingthe planthe plan

ImplementingImplementingthe planthe plan

ManagingManagingthe crisisthe crisis

ManagingManagingthe crisisthe crisis

• scope• policy• structure• resources• mechanisms

• scope• policy• structure• resources• mechanisms

Changingthe mindsetChanging

the mindset

Business impact analysisBusiness impact analysisBusiness impact analysisBusiness impact analysis

Create the BCM planCreate the BCM planCreate the BCM planCreate the BCM plan

Business impact evaluationBusiness impact evaluationObjectives ->Objectives ->

Risks ->Risks ->Priorities ->Priorities ->ScenariosScenarios

Business impact evaluationBusiness impact evaluationObjectives ->Objectives ->

Risks ->Risks ->Priorities ->Priorities ->ScenariosScenarios

Internal analysisInternal analysis• products and servicesproducts and services• activities and resourcesactivities and resources• dependenciesdependencies

Internal analysisInternal analysis• products and servicesproducts and services• activities and resourcesactivities and resources• dependenciesdependencies

External analysisExternal analysis• market environmentmarket environment• stakeholder analysisstakeholder analysis• supply chain analysissupply chain analysis

External analysisExternal analysis• market environmentmarket environment• stakeholder analysisstakeholder analysis• supply chain analysissupply chain analysis

Conclusions

DisasterDisasteropens aopens awindow ofwindow ofopportunityopportunityfor positivefor positivechange andchange andgreatergreatersecuritysecurity

DisasterDisasteropens aopens awindow ofwindow ofopportunityopportunityfor positivefor positivechange andchange andgreatergreatersecuritysecurity

What is What is sustainablesustainable disaster risk reduction? disaster risk reduction?What is What is sustainablesustainable disaster risk reduction? disaster risk reduction?

• it is centred upon the it is centred upon the local levellocal level (but is (but is harmonisedharmonised from above) from above)• it is centred upon the it is centred upon the local levellocal level (but is (but is harmonisedharmonised from above) from above)

• through through consultationconsultation it has the support it has the support and involvement of the and involvement of the populationpopulation• through through consultationconsultation it has the support it has the support and involvement of the and involvement of the populationpopulation

• plans tackle all the plans tackle all the phases of thephases of the disaster cycledisaster cycle - in an integrative way - in an integrative way• plans tackle all the plans tackle all the phases of thephases of the disaster cycledisaster cycle - in an integrative way - in an integrative way

• it is a fundamental, every-day it is a fundamental, every-day serviceservice for the population and is taken for the population and is taken seriouslyseriously..• it is a fundamental, every-day it is a fundamental, every-day serviceservice for the population and is taken for the population and is taken seriouslyseriously..

needs to be shortenedneeds to belengthened

preparationfor the

next event

warningand

evacuation

recovery andreconstruction

repairof basicservices

emergencymanagementand rescue

isolation

impact

needs to bestrengthenedRisk reduction and disaster mitigation

[email protected]

[email protected]

www.terrapublishing.netwww.terrapublishing.net

Thank you for your attention!Thank you for your attention!

Risk Assessment and Reduction

Education

Transcript of Risk Assessment and Reduction