Risk Assessment and Management

DRM-SD Learning LabConcorde Inn KLIA, Kuala Lumpur

04 December 2014

Prof. K. Koshy

Centre for Global Sustainability Studies (CGSS)

Universiti Sains Malaysia

kanayathu.koshy@gmail.com

• LFA:

• Phase 1, 2 & 3

• M & E

• Project design

I n t e r m i s s i o n

• R.A.M:

• logic

• application

• Kuala Nerang project

Overview

Logical Framework Approach/

Analysis

… it is an approach to develop well

analysed and logical project

framework & activities…

What is LFA?

Story Time

About a new restaurant…

Story Time

About a new restaurant…

Logical. Framework. Analysis.

Restaurant

not making

profit

Few new customers

+

Few returning customers

Unappealing surroundings

and menu

+

Poor marketing strategy

Logical Framework Analysis

Restaurant

making

profit

Many new customers

+

Many returning

customers

Appealing

surroundings

and menu

+

Good marketing

strategy

Logical Framework Analysis

Restaurant

not making

profit

Few new customers

+

Few returning customers

Unappealing surroundings and menu

+

Poor marketing strategy

Problem Tree

Cau

se -

Eff

ect

Logical Framework Analysis

Restaurant

not making

profit

Few new customers

+

Few returning customers

Unappealing surroundings and menu

+

Poor marketing strategy

Restaurant

making

profit

Many new customers

+

Many returning customers

Appealing surroundings and menu

+

Good marketing strategy

Objective TreeProblem Tree

Cau

se -

Eff

ect

Logical Framework Analysis

Triple Bottom Line of Sustainability

Restaurant

not making

profit

Few new customers

+

Few returning customers

Unappealing surroundings and menu

+

Poor marketing strategy

Restaurant

making

profit

Many new customers

+

Many returning customers

Appealing surroundings and menu

+

Good marketing strategy

Activities

Objective TreeProblem Tree

Cau

se -

Eff

ect

Logical Framework Analysis

Story Time

About a new restaurant…

Story Time

About a new restaurant…

15

Stakeholder

Analysis

Problem

Analysis

Objective

Analysis

Strategy

Analysis

ANALYSIS PHASE

How does LFA work?

Logframe

Activity

Schedule

Resource

Schedule

PLANNING PHASE

IMPLEMENTATION PHASE

16

Phase 1

Situation analysis1. Stakeholder Analysis

Stakeholders

People, groups, institutions etc that are likely to influence or be influenced by the project, e.g.

• Decision makers

• Implementers

• Donor partners

• Target groups

• Beneficiaries

Univ Partners

Policy groups

Community

groups

Industrial partners

Others

Major Stakeholders

20

Phase 1

Situation analysis

2. Problem Analysis

Problem analysis

There are different levels of problems:

• Overall Objective (Goal)• Produce impact – projects contribution to the beneficiaries

• Specific Objective (Target, Purpose)• Produce outcome - benefit to the target group

• Component Objective (Results level)• Produce outputs or results – tangible products or services delivered by the project

• Activities/Project intervention • address the cause of the problem

Sust

ainab

ilit

y

Why a Problem Tree?

Objective Tree(Indicator)

Impacts

Outcomes

Outputs

Problem Tree(Logframe)

Goal

Targets

Activities

Restaurant

not making

profit

Few new customers

+

Few returning customers

Unappealing surroundings and menu

+

Poor marketing strategy

Problem Tree

Cau

se -

Eff

ect

PROBELM TREE

25

Extreme indoor

climate

Effect of potentially

harmful gasses

accumulation in

building

Dust mites in

building

Low indoor

comfort level

Poor indoor

working

environment

Poor building

performance

Sick building

syndrome

PROBLEM TREE

CAUSE

EFFECT

High building

energy

consumption

Non-passive

design building

26

Phase 1

Situation analysis

3. Objective Analysis

27MEANS

END

OBJECTIVE TREE

Moderate indoor

climate

Zero effect of

potentially harmful

gas accumulation

in building

Controlled mites in

building

Optimum comfort

level

Conducive

working

environment

Good building

performanceHealthy building

Energy efficient

building

Passive design

building

28

Phase 1

Situation analysis

4. Strategy Analysis

29

Moderate indoor

climate

Optimum comfort

level

Conducive

working

environment

Passive design

building

DETERMINE THE PROJECT STRATEGY

THERMAL COMFORT

STRATEGY

Overall

objective

Specific

objective

Result

level

30

Conducive

working

environment

Good building

performance

Energy efficient

building

Passive design

building

DETERMINE THE PROJECT STRATEGY

PERFORMANCE

STRATEGY

Overall

objective

Specific

objective

Result

level

31

Zero effect of

potentially harmful

gas accumulation

in building

Controlled mites in

building

Conducive

working

environment

Healthy building

DETERMINE THE PROJECT STRATEGY

HEALTH

STRATEGY

Overall

objective

Specific

objective

Result

level

32

Moderate indoor

climate

Zero effect of

potentially harmful

gas accumulation

in building

Controlled mites in

building

Optimum

comfort level

Conducive

working

environment

Good

building

performance

Healthy building

Energy efficient

building

Passive design

building

DETERMINE THE PROJECT STRATEGY

HEALTH

STRATEGY

PERFORMANCE

STRATEGY

THERMAL

COMFORT

STRATEGY

Overall

objective

Specific

objective

Result

level

Overall

objective

Specific

objective

Result

level

Other

projects

Main project

33

Relaxation5 Minutes

34

Phase 2

Planning phase

5. Logframe Development

35

Intervention logicObjective Verifiable

Indicators (OVI)

LOGFRAME

AssumptionsSource of

Verifications (SOV)

Overall

Objectives

Specific

Objectives

Results

Level

Activities

The description of the

project according to its

hierarchy of objectives

Narrative

Measures of

achievement of

overall objectives

Measures of

achievement of

specific objectives

Measures of

achievement of

results

Implementation/targets

of activities

Sources of information

& methods used to

verify achievements

Assumptions affecting

linkages between

Specific & Overall

Objectives

Assumptions affecting

linkages between

Results & Specific

Objectives

Assumptions affecting

linkages between

Activities & Results

Objectives

Objectives which are

not included yet have

effects on the project

PRE-CONDITION

36

Phase 3

Implementation phase

6. Activity Schedule

Restaurant

not making

profit

Few new customers

+

Few returning customers

Unappealing surroundings and menu

+

Poor marketing strategy

Restaurant

making

profit

Many new customers

+

Many returning customers

Appealing surroundings and menu

+

Good marketing strategy

Activities

Objective TreeProblem Tree

Cau

se -

Eff

ect

LOGICAL FRAMEWORK ANALYSIS

38

List of activities from

the logframe

Name of the

person assigned

to carry out the

task

AVTIVITY SCHEDULE

No. Activities Responsible Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Milestones

Year *Planning for a five-year period

39

Phase 3

Implementation phase

7. Resource Schedule

Resource Schedule

•Experts and personnel (local and

foreign, counter part, project group)

•Financing (loans, grants, funds)

cost sharing? Future long term

financing?

•Equipment

•Premises

41

Types of

unit e.g.

package,

pax, etc.

E.g. cost

per

package,

cost per

pax, etc.

Repetitions

in activities Total cost for

each activity

Source of fund

to carry out

activities which

includes self

funding if

possible

RESOURCE SCHEDULE

E.g.

number of

package,

pax, etc

List of activities from

the activity schedule

No. ActivitiesTotal(RM)

RecurrentCost

FundingSource

Cost/Unit(RM)

QuantityUnit

TOTAL

42

Phase 3

Implementation phase

8. Project level activities

Risk Management

• Be an able leader

• Practice ‘adaptive management’

• Manage conflict effectively

• Display high level of integrity

44

All phases

Monitoring & Evaluation

9. Reporting

M&E and Reporting

• Indicator based M&E (short, mid and long-term)

• Project reports:• Inception

• Progress

• Annual

• Completion

• External review

LFA all the way?

...LFA is no better, no worse than its users ...

LFA exercise for you

Problem statement: –1. “Flood disaster gets worse”

2. “Poverty disaster still needs concerted action”

3. “There are severe weaknesses in land use policy implementation Z”

Use LFA approach to develop compelling proposals

Risk Assessment Methodology

• R.A.M for risk assessment and prioritization

• Follows risk equation logic

Flood prone Area (Padang Terap District, Kedah)

Stakeholder Workshop - FGD

Stakeholder Workshop

Criteria for R.A.M

L : 0-25

M: 26- 50

H :51-100

Village / Sub-

District

Magnitude /

Coverage

(How Big)

Intensity /

Severity

(How Strong)

Probability /

Exact Time

(How Often)

Importance /

Capacity

(How Vulnerable)

Risk

(Average)

ABCD L/M/H L/M/H L/M/H L/M/H L/M/H

RAM Results for Sites

Sub- DistrictMagnitude/

Coverage

Intensity/

Severity

Probability/

Frequency

Importance/

VulnerabilityRisk

Belimbing Kiri H H H H H

Belimbing Kanan H M H H H

Padang Temak H M H H H

Padang Terap Kanan H H H H H

Kurung Hitam H M H H H

Padang Terap Kiri H H H H H

Tekai M M H H H

Batang Tunggang Kiri H M H H H

Pedu H H H H H

Batang Tunggang Kanan M H H H H

Risk H M H H H

Adaptation 3/

Adaptation 2/

Adaptation 4/

Adaptation 5/

Community Outreach

Promoting community based adaptation approches using life jackets, boats and emergency kits provided by the project

Thank You