Risk and · PDF file · 2017-02-23•Traditionally Carp but Tilapia and Catfish...
Transcript of Risk and · PDF file · 2017-02-23•Traditionally Carp but Tilapia and Catfish...
Risk and Aquaculture
Food Security – the Grand Challenge
• World food production needs to increase by >70% by 2050 to sustain the projected increase in population
• Arable crop production will likely meet demand but supply balance for meat (animal protein) is another story
Meat• Livestock production is the largest land user -
for pasture and feed production
• 500 million hectares for pasture more than twice the area for arable crops
• Increase in livestock
production would impact
arable crop production
Fish• Fish provide 16% of animal protein consumed
globally
• Fish = 30% of animal protein consumed in Asia, 20% in Africa and 10% in Latin America
• Decline of capture fisheries balanced by growth of aquaculture - reached 50:50 in 2011
• Average intake estimated to reach 25kg/person/yr by 2030
• Aquaculture output needs to
double to meet this demand
Aquaculture• Fish are highly efficient protein converters
• Salmon 1.5 kg feed/kg, Poultry 3kg/kg, Cattle 8kg /kg
• Fish rich in Omega3 FAs, HEALTHY
– protection against cancer, cardiovascular disease, stroke, diabetes, arthritis, Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, muscle and brain function, even reduce depression
• In EU aquaculture mainly marine species
• In Eastern EU and Far East more freshwater
• Western EU – Marine spp. generally farmed at sea
• Eastern EU – and far east – more freshwater spp. farmed in ponds
• Traditionally Carp but Tilapia and Catfish (Pangasius –”Basa” “River Cobbler”) now popular imports from Asia
Aquaculture Risk
• Aquaculture is often considered as a high-risk production activity
• Economists frequently characterize risk into the production (yield or technical), marketing(or price), and financial risk
Production Risks
This is like shooting fish in a
barrel!
Anglers left downcast as river teems with 60,000 trout... As many as 60,000 farm trout escaped into Hampshire's River Avon
Production risk -result of losses due to predation, disease, pollution/poisoning, oxygen problems, equipment failure, power outages or floods.
Feed IngredientsFishmeal is used in most aquaculture feeds – often at high % in “grow-on” feed
• Use of fishmeal in aquaculture has risen massively over last 50 years – now consuming 73% of total production compared to 10% in 1980 (+/- zero in 1960) but since 1980s the price of fish meal has risen approximately three-fold
Market Risk
• Market or price risk is created by variability in prices.
• Demand varies with consumer demand, incomes, exchange rates, export policies, supply of competing products, seasonal or cyclical trends.
Tilapia
Market Risk – New Species
• Tilapia farming in UK• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1an1mXsRoU
• TILAPIA LTD 08540457 - Dissolved on 30 December 2014• TILAPIA SEAFOODS LIMITED - Dissolved on 9 July 2013 • EAST ANGLIAN TILAPIA LIMITED - Dissolved on 6 May 2014 • VOLTA RAPIDS TILAPIA LIMITED - Dissolved on 23 October 2012 • HIGHLAND TILAPIA LIMITED - Dissolved on 28 January 2011 • SUSSEX TILAPIA LIMITED - Dissolved on 1 October 2013
• Poor consumer uptake – low cost of imported fish from Thailand and China
Financial Risk
• Financial risk results from fluctuations in those factors that affect loans and loan payments.
• Highly leveraged farms (higher debt) can lose net worth rapidly (e.g. due to Production or Market Risk). Less resilient to recovery
Sea Bass Crashes
Spectacular growth during the 1990’s led to an imbalance between production &market demand resulting in two price collapses ( 2001-2003 & 2007-2009)
Sea Bass Price Crashes1990s saw a massive investment in Sea Bass Production….then a price crash….WHY?Production related:• High cost and inconsistent quality of juveniles• High FCR (2.7:1 cf. salmon 1.35:1) i.e lots of feed needed
to make 1kg of fish• Emergence of significant diseases• Poor automation & economy scaleMarket related• Under developed markets saw a rapid fall inprice (50% fall between 1989 and 2005)
Water Quality
Marine systems – Little control but generally stable
Subject to environment – storms, algal blooms, pesticides, oil slicks
Success of a fish farm critically depends on water quality
Low tech. High volume approaches
Shrimp ponds -Thailand
Carp and Tilapia ponds -China
Low Tech – Trout farm – Drain and Dredge
VortexParticle filtersDrums
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Biofilter Materials
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Chemical Filtration• Remove undesirable substances from the water
• Carbon granules to remove ‘colour’ from water. (eg, Phenols give water a yellow colour)
• Zeolite can remove ammonia from freshwater and can be ‘recharged’ in salt water. (FRESHWATER ONLY)
• Phosphate removing granules for help prevent algae
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Single pass flow-through culture systems –
Less system water quality management but input water quality very important.
Large throughput prevents extensive treatment of input water higher risk of contamination from pathogens, fertilizers, pesticides
Output water quality must be monitored to stop environmental contamination – waste, escape fish (especially non-natives)
Flow-through trout farm
Water Quality
Recirculating Aquaculture Systems (RAS)
RAS is biosecure, allows control of pathogens and parasites without antibiotics or chemicals
Highly controllable allowing control of growth-rates
Costly - RAS is currently used for high-value species (sea bass, bream)
Integration and optimization will reduce cost
Water Quality
Integrative approaches to farming
• Integrating fish farming with other animals and/or plants can add value and reduce overall cost –
• This approach as old as aquaculture
But water quality may suffer – Heavy metals and antibiotics (growth promoters) may pass from manure into fish
Many examples: • Waste of fish farm used to fertilize fields• Polyculture of fish and rice (tilapia in paddy fields)• Manure used to fertilize water plants grown to feed fish• Polychaete worms fed on fish waste, fed to fish• Fish farm waste fermented with crop waste to generate
biogas and compost
Integrative approaches to farming
AquaponicsFish produce waste – broken down by bacteria – nitrates feed plants, in turn cleaning waterInputs – Food and Energy (heating and pumping). Outputs – Fish, crops, compostable solids
Fish
Solids
Crop
Plants Nitrate
NitrobacterBacteria
Nitrite
NitrosomosBacteriaAmmonia
Fish
Water
Food
Energy
Energy
Educational Aquaponics Unit
University of Liverpool
Guild of Students Experimental Rooftop Farm
University of Liverpool
Guild of Students Experimental Rooftop Farm
Ness-Gardens
Educational Urban Farming Greenhouse
Ness-Gardens
Educational Urban Farming Greenhouse
Ness-Gardens
Educational Urban Farming Greenhouse
Installation of aquaponic systems onto Alder Hey in the Park Hospital Play decks
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-34411212 (from about 1:10)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-34416104 (0.25)
CAST - Projects
• Since 2012 – CAST involved in securing funding total value of >£5M
• FFINN –– Developing new sustainable fish feed (TSB £150K)
• RAZone –– Environmentally sensitive water treatment for Aquaculture (EU FP7 for SME - £300K)
• ZebraWel – Automated fish behaviour monitoring (BBSRC £450K)
• BiFFio –Anaerobic Digestion – Biogas and fertilizers from fish waste (EU FP7 SME associations £2.2M – UoL £400K)
• AQUA-MMS – Micro-Mass Spectrometer toxin and contaminant sensors (EU FP7 for SME £1.2M UoL £400K)
• HiSeaS – High Sensitivity Sensors – tainting compound sensing
• Plus – Ecotoxicology, Nutrition, Genomic Approaches to Breeding
Case Study: FFINN Sustainable Protein for fish feed
• Problem – Carnivorous fish are fed food containing fishmeal –up to 4kg wild capture fish to make 1kg salmon – Unsustainable
• Consortium: Skretting (fish food), Anglesey Aquaculture (fish farm), Eminate (ingredient manufacture)
University of Liverpool and UHI RTDs
Case Study: FFINN Sustainable Protein for Seafood
• Eminate manufacture fermented vegetable protein• UoL & UHI conduct lab feed trials, nutrition tests &
measure protein incorporation (bioavailability)• High quality protein sources selected• Feed manufactured by Skretting• Commercial scale trials at Anglesey Aquaculture
Diet supplemented with 50%2H7 leucine
Isolate proteins
Muscle samples taken at1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 7 weeks
LTQ-MS
Feed with ‘Heavy’ Diet
1D or 2D Gel Electrophoresis or LC
LC-MS/MS
Sample Collection
High Science to address problems: Protein Turnover by Stable Isotope labelling
Case Study: RAZONE – optimise ozonationfor water quality control
• Problem – Increasing production and fish welfare require high fish density (they like to shoal) – waste difficult to deal with –ozonation improves protein removal but changes water chemistry
• Consortium: SMEs: NORMEX (ozone systems) AS Statiflo(dynamic mixers) EDUR-Pumpenfabrik (pumps),SALMAR SETTEFISK, ANGELSEY AQUACULTURE (End Users)
• RTDs -, University of Liverpool (Integrative Biology, Environmental Science), TI Norway and Fraunhofer Institute
Case Study: RAZONE – optimise ozonationfor water quality control
• UoL conduct lab tests to determine effect of ozone on sea water chemistry and verify there is no effect on fish
• Commercial trials at Anglesey Aquaculture
Marine ozone test systemTwo identical 5 x 400 litre marine recirculation systems.Protein skimmer with variable ozone, as well as particulate filter, suspended sand filter, trickle bio-tower
Case Study: BiffiO – Nutrients and Energy from fish and cattle manure
• Problem – High fish density increases waste – difficult to deal, High value fish often require higher temperatures – consumes energy
• Solution – Anaerobic digestion of waste produces biogas for energy and yields nutrients for soil conditioners - fertilizer
• Consortium: SMEs: British Trout, Scottish Salmon producers, A-witte, Anglesey Aquaculture, Distributers and Farms
• RTDs -, University of Liverpool (Integrative Biology, School of Veterinary Science, Plant Science) TI Norway and Aqua-Consult
Case Study: BiffiO – Nutrients and Energy from fish and cattle manure
• UoL – day to day running of Anaerobic Digesters, plant growth trials, scaling of AD. AD sited on University Farms
Case Study: BiffiO – Nutrients and Energy from fish and cattle manure
Assess Biogas Quality (composition – CH4, CO2, CO, O2, H2S) and Quantity
Assess Fertilizer (NPK and Growth Trials) –Grass trials (pasture, utility, sports, quick results – multiple replicates) Barley trials (crop growth)
Model Gas uses and Economics
Model Gas uses and Economics
Recommend best practice based on input properties, costs, handling considerations and legislation
Slurry
Digestate
Case Study: BiffiO – Nutrients and Energy from fish and cattle manure
n3 n1 n2 n3 n4
Conc 1 -6 Conc 1 -6 Conc 1 -6 Conc 1 -6 Conc 1 -6 Conc 1 -6 Conc 1 -6 Conc 1 -6 Conc 1 -6 Conc 1 -6 Conc 1 -6 Conc 1 -6 Conc 1 -6
n3 n1 n2 n3 n1 n2 n3 n1 n2n3 n1 n2 n3 n1 n2 n3 n1 n2n3 n1 n2 n3 n1 n2 n3 n1 n2n1 n2 n3 n1 n2 n3 n1 n2
Reactor 1 Reactor 2 Reactor 3 Reactor 4 Reactor 1 Reactor 2 Reactor 3 Reactor 4
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Control Group
10% Fish waste 20% Fish waste 40% Fish waste 60% Fish waste 80% Fish waste 100% Fish wasteInorganic Fertiliser
Reactor 1 Reactor 2 Reactor 3 Reactor 4
Case Study: AQUAMMS – Making sense of Water Quality
• Problem – Intensification and reliance on natural water supplies puts fish at risk from toxins and metabolic waste products (fish and bacteria). Often difficult to detect – 10 pptrillion Geosmin (muddy taste)
• Solution – Integrated sensor array - advanced approaches: mass spectrometry and optical technologies, to measure a wide range of substances – early warning for farmers
• Consortium: Q-tech (UoL spinout) – Faaltech (Ireland), BAMO (Germany),
• Anglesey Aquaculture (Sea Bass), Telemarkroye AS (Arctic Char)
• RTDs -, University of Liverpool , TI Norway and Cork Institute of Technology
Case Study: AQUAMMS – Making sense of Water Quality
• UoL – (EEE and IIB) Development of MMS and fluorescence sensors, testing and validation
Introduction: Mass Spectrometry
Mass spectrometry (MS) ionizes chemicals then “sorts” the ions by their mass to charge (m/z) ratio. This “Quadrupole Mass Analyzer” oscillates electrical fields to stabilize or destabilize the paths of the ions passing between four parallel rods. Only ions of a certain range of m/z ratio pass through at any one time. Changing the potentials changes the m/z values of the ions that reach the detector so you can scan a range of m/z rapidly
Ion Source
Mass Analyser
Detector
Mass Analyser
Detector
Advances in MS
Cooks et. al. Science 2004, 306, 471-473; Science 2006, 311, 1566
vacuum
APCIESI
Ambient IonisationMethods
Analyte Sampling from their Native Environment without Sample
Pre-treatment
VacuumEXTRACTION
Ion Source
Mass Analyser
Detector
VacuumVacuum
Recent innovations in mass spectrometry allow us to record mass spectra on ordinary samples, in their native environment, without sample preparation or pre-separation by creating ions outside the instrument: Ambient Ionisation
Goal: “analysis of samples in situ using mass spectrometry”
Parameters: (1) ambient surfaces (2) no preparation (3) instant data
Target: Crude Real-World sample, Outside the lab (“Take the lab to the sample” and “Analyze samples in their original form”)
Approach 1: Ionize sample in situ transport ions to MSApproach 2: Transport the MS Ionize the sample in situ
Research Overview
•Highly sensitive and specific
Ex-situ water analysis methods : GC-MS or HPLC-MS
•Time consuming
•Samples need to be taken to the Lab
•In field in-situ analysis is highly desirable
GC/HPLC-ESI/APPI/FDI
Mass Analyser
Detector
Vacuum
ESI
MALDILC
Extraction
MS Analysis
Raw Sample
Ambient Ionisation
Analysis of Complex Water Samples-
1 –60 s
1 s
1 s
0.1-1 hr
1 - 3 hr
Ambient Ionisation
Ambient Ionisation: Paper Spray
PAPER SPRAY [V, solvent]
HV
Solvent Charged droplets
with analyte
To Mass Analyser
Paper
Paper Spray Method: Blood Spot Analysis
1. Prick Finger
0 s
15 s
30 s 40 s
50 s
60 s
3. Apply HV
4. Apply Solution
2. Load Sample[M+H]+
5. Acquire Data
6.Report Results
60s Analysis of Biological Samples
He Wang et al Ouyang, Angew. Chem. 2010
Paper Spray: Quantitation
Quantit. accuracyand precision
< 10% at 1ng/mLand above
Reactive PS Analysis: Metaldehyde in Raw Water
Maher, Young et. al. Nature Sci. Rep. 2016, 6, 35643
Metaldehyde is found in drinking water above the 0.1 μg/L European and UK standard. Metaldehyde is not filtered out in water treatment beds for many weeks. Current detection methods are expensive and slow (ex-situ). Our PS-MS approach offers cheap, rapid analysis with added potential for use as an online continuous metaldehyde monitoring system that can raise the alarm if metaldehyde concentrations breach a threshold limit.
Reactive PS Analysis: Corrosion Inhibitors in Industrial Boiler Waters
LOD: 0.1 pg Dynamic Range: 5 orders RSD < 10%
Jjunju et. al. Anal. Chem. 2016
The addition of corrosion inhibitors is a well-established preventative approach -aliphatic and aromatic amines are known to reduce corrosion. However, “green chemistry” requires formulations should be low toxicity, soluble and biodegradable Toxic aromatic amines should be avoided. There is a pressing need for analytical methods for rapid, on-site analysis and quantification of these corrosion inhibitor residues
On-Site Analysis?
There are huge advantages to being able to measure ions rapidly, in their native environment, without sample preparation or pre-separation:Rapid diagnosis, on-line – close to real time measurement, early warning of problems……
Membrane Interface
Membrane Interface
=
Hydrophobic membrane
Micro-porousfrit
• Hydrophobic membrane forms the interface between liquid sample at atmospheric pressure and the vacuum system.
• Highly polar compounds such as water do not migrate through the membrane with any appreciable efficiency.
Maher, Young et. al. Spectrosc. Eur. 2014
On-Site Testing
Anglesey Aquaculture: 500 tonne Biomass Seabass farm. State-of-the-art Recirculation Aquaculture System
Telemark-Roye: New Freshwater Arctic Char farm in Norway. State-of-the-art Recirculation Aquaculture System
Low dissolved oxygen levels kills more fish than any other cause.
Dissolved Oxygen and Carbon Dioxide measurement
Optical Methods
Array of functionalized sensingelements affords flexibility &simultaneous detection.
Controlling fluorophoreconcentrations immobilized in thesensing membranes allows theeffective dynamic range for sensinga particular analyte to beincreased.
Fluorescent images can give arapid, holistic and single shotindication of heavy metal contentin water.
Portable Fluorescence Array
Maher, Young et. al. IEEE Sensors. 2016
Heavy Metals
LOD: low nM. Response Time: ~2s.
Maher, Young et. al. IEEE Sensors. 2016
My School
Slowing the flow http://www.forestry.gov.uk/fr/infd-7zucqy
Slowing the flow is a project
Slowing the Flow scheme http://www.forestry.gov.uk/fr/infd-7zucqy in North Yorkshire relies mainly on better land managementIn North Yorkshire – DEFRA, Forest Research, Forestry Commission England, The Environment Agency, The North York Moors National Park Authority, Durham University, Natural England and the wider community.
The project includes planting native woodland, leaving woody debris in (headwater) streams, construction of timber “bunds”
Biological/Natural Approaches
Woody Debris Timber Bund Leaky Dam
Grouse Moors (North Yorks Moors) are burned back to encourage heather regeneration. This destroys biomass that can absorb water – slowing run off.
Natural cycles accumulate debris controlling the flow. No-burn areas can help accumulate biomass. Blocking streams with heather bales and dams can mimic natural accumulation in the meantime.
Woodlands evaporate more water and add debris slowing run-off streams
Biological/Natural Approaches
Heather Bales Blocked moorland stream Tree Planting
The “Slowing the flow” land management interventions were predicted to protect Pickering from at least a 1 in 25 year flood, reducing the chance of flooding in the town from 25% to less than 4% in any given year
Biological/Natural Approaches
Heather Bales Blocked moorland stream Tree Planting