Rilko - Russian agricultural‐food exports and food security: how two tasks are combined"
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Russian agriculturalfood exports and food security: how two tasks are combined Samarqand, November 2, 2016 Dmitri Rylko General director IKAR LLC
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Transcript of Rilko - Russian agricultural‐food exports and food security: how two tasks are combined"
Russian agricultural-‐food exports and food security: how two tasks are combined
Samarqand, November 2, 2016
Dmitri Rylko General director IKAR LLC
Russian agriculture: changing paradigm of sector development
Two-‐fold devaluaLon caused by falling crude oil and gas prices Counter – sancLons ShiNing and modifying government support *** “Net result”: boosLng short and medium term compeLLveness of domesLc ag on domesLc and internaLonal marketplace
“Russian cross”: crude oil and ruble price indexes
Russian government
Keeping nominally same support level to agriculture (against the background of general absolute budget shrinkage in rubles and two-‐fold devaluaLon… ShiNing subsidy support to industries – “import killers” (highest short/medium/long term import subsLtuLon potenLal): greenhouses, commercial vegetables, horLculture, dairy, beef caVle… Launching new subsidy tools, such as • direct subsidy to ag machinery manufacturers, • “project financing”, • parLal fixed investment compensaLon
Russian agricultural growth rates, % (2004 = 100)
+5,5%
+8%
+3%
90,0
100,0
110,0
120,0
130,0
140,0
150,0
160,0
170,0
Agriculture Crop Livestock
CAGR 2005-‐2015
Agriculture: 3,3% Crop: 3,6% Livestock: 2,6%
+2,0%
+5,5%
95
105
115
125
135
145
155
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*
Food industry Agriculture
Russian ag and food processing growth rates, % (2004 = 100)
CAGR 2005-‐2015
Food industry: 2,9% Agriculture: 3,3%
Russian foreign ag trade, $ bln
-‐50
-‐40
-‐30
-‐20
-‐10
0
10
20
30
Other countries Import EU Import CIS Import Other Countries Export EU Export CIS Export
$24,4 mln
$43,2 mln
$20,8 mln
IKAR
FORE
CAST
$17,0 mln
Russia is quite aggressively moving to “zero” agricultural trade balance
Structure of ag export from Russia, $ mln
56%
62% 60% 60%
17%
15%
17% 16%
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
20 000
2013 2014 2015 2016*
Other categories Live animals, meat, dairy
Beverages and spirits Tobacco
Fish and seafood Cereals and oilseeds, oils and fats, flour, meal and cake, ready-‐to-‐eat products
Import structure by macro origins to Russia, $ bln
3,7 4,4 3,6 3,5
18,8 14,4
6,5 5,8
20,8
21,3
16,5 15,2
2013 2014 2015 2016*
EurEcUnion Under sancVons Others
Structure of ag import to Russia, $ mln
22% 21% 22% 22%
26% 23%
19% 19%
14% 15%
17% 18%
3% 5%
6% 6%
8% 8%
7% 7%
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
45 000
2013 2014 2015 2016*
Fruits and vegetables Meat and dairy Tea, coffee, cocoa, other grocery Oilseeds Spirits and beverages Tobacco Other products
Some sectoral insights
Growing export orientaFon of Russian oilseed market
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17*
TMT
Sunflower market
DomesVc market Export (seed and oil)
0
500
1 000
1 500
2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17*
TMT
Rapeseed market
DomesVc market Export (seed and oil)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17* TM
T
Safflower market
DomesVc market Export (seed only)
30% 43% 61% 80%
78%
94%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17*
Flaxseed market
DomesVc market Export (seed only)
91%
92%
Meat import subsFtuFon, TMT
30% 27% 27%
24%
17%
12% 10%
-‐4 000
-‐2 000
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*
ProducVon Import Import share, %
Cheese import subsFtuFon, TMT
47% 48% 45% 49%
37%
23% 25%
-‐500
-‐300
-‐100
100
300
500
700
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*
ProducVon Import (excl. Belarus) Belarus Import share, %
Cheese import subsFtuFon, TMT
47% 48% 45% 49%
37%
23% 25%
-‐600
-‐400
-‐200
0
200
400
600
800
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*
Cheese producVon Cheese products Import (excl. Belarus) Belarus Import share, %
Veg import subsFtuFon, TMT
34% 33% 35% 37% 36%
26%
16%
-‐400
-‐200
0
200
400
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*
Cucumbers
ProducVon Import (excl. Turkey) Turkey Import share, %
82% 81% 83% 82% 81% 78%
61%
-‐1 000
-‐800
-‐600
-‐400
-‐200
0
200
400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*
Tomatoes
ProducVon Import (excl. Turkey) Turkey Import share, %
Retail market: esFmated share of domesFc and imported products, $ mln
0,0
50,0
100,0
150,0
200,0
250,0
300,0
350,0
400,0
DomesVc products Imported products
“Netback” as applied to agricultural markets: lessons to be learned
The netback is calculated by taking all of the revenues from the crude oil, less all costs associated with ge`ng the oil to a market. Netback as applied to agriculture: On import-‐oriented market the local price is world price PLUS (domesLc tariff and NTM barriers) transportaLon cost On self-‐sufficient/export oriented market the local price is world price MINUS (imporLng country tariff and NTM barriers) and transportaLon cost
35% 27% 19% 13% 14% 13% 10% 5% 4% 1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2,0
2,2
2,4
2,6
2,8
3,0
Share of import Imported broiler to Russia price DomesVc Price
Netback concept as applied to the Russian poultry meat market
Some pre-‐final subjecLve notes
“Food security” and/or “food independence” Self sufficiency of “first level” BeVer (for agriculture, and the government!) to keep some industries reasonably net imporLng, rather than boost full self-‐sufficiency, if there is no obvious (potenLal) “natural” export compeLLveness… …We need a good and strong scien3fic theory and apparatus to check and measure it…
Москва: две концепции продажи орехов/сухофруктов
Import of raisins to Russia by origins and customs value per kilo (2015)
56 1798 7074 2386 100 480 334 8265 1641
4,55
3,06
1,93 1,88 1,73 1,70
1,35 1,14
0,71
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
3,00
3,50
4,00
4,50
5,00
RSA TURKEY IRAN CHILE CHINA INDIA UZBEKISTAN AFGANISTAN KAZAKHSTAN
Import, Tons Average price, $/kg
Thank you! Рахмат! [email protected] Skype: Dimash457
