Tamás BOROS, Policy Solutions

January 2014

Right-wing extremism and populism in Hungary

Extreme right in Hungary

Main reasons of the rise of the far-right in Hungary I.

• Growing tensions between rural non-Roma and Roma segments of the population. Romas: 5-6% of total Hungarian population, more than 10% in Eastern Hungary – in extreme poverty

• A relatively large part of the society is open to far-right ideals – 48% of Hungarian population is open to prejudices

• On the whole, Hungarian society is considerably more right-wing than it used to be in the 1990s – 20%->50%

Main reasons of the rise of the far-right in Hungary II.

• Widespread popular disappointment with the entire political elite and the results of the regime transition

• The established left collapsed with the Hungarian Socialist Party losing over half of its voters between 2006 and 2010. Many disillusioned voters were up for grabs • A growing economic and social crisis since 2008. Increasing poverty, especially in Eastern Hungary

Economic crisis

Main reasons of the rise of the far-right in Hungary III.

• The supply side strengthened as Jobbik engaged in intense organisation building in 2006

• Jobbik was extremely successful in establishing local party units and recruiting party members

• A key of the initial success was the establishment of the Hungarian Guard in 2007 and the exploitation of widespread anti-Roma sentiments

• An alternative media network was built up by Jobbik (websites, weekly newspaper, free tabloid)

Jobbik’s ideological profile and public policy priorities - I

• Anti-communism and the rejection of post-communist MSZP and its liberal ally SZDSZ

• A strong commitment to law and order

• The appropriation of the Roma issue, fight against “gypsy crime”

•Anti-establishment rhetoric

Jobbik’s ideological profile and public policy priorities - II

• The „new” party

• Nationalism • Left-wing economic policy

• Anti-globalisation sentiment

• Strong euroscepticism

Who are Jobbik’s voters? I.

• Strong territorial concentration, but more than a “regional party” – Jobbik’s strongholds are the constituencies in North-Eastern Hungary, but has support everywhere in the country

• Income is not significantly correlated to support for Jobbik • Jobbik’s support is the highest among the youth and is extremely weak among pensioners

Who are Jobbik’s voters? II.

• Jobbik suffers from a vast gender gap – „machoparty”

• Most Jobbik voters are not religious

• Elite-surveys prove that Jobbik’s political elite is more radical than its voter base – just the contrary to the European trends

Jobbik’s impact on mainstream parties – I.

• The governing party Fidesz has realised a number of policies and symbolic gestures that were in Jobbik’s election manifesto but had never figured in Fidesz’ programmes or communication:

i.Fight against multinational companiesii.Fight against the EUiii.Fight against „liberal” culture

•The Hungarian Socialist Party for its part sees itself under pressure in the Jobbik bastion of North-Eastern Hungary, which was previously a socialist stronghold

Jobbik’s impact on mainstream parties – II.

• Helmut Kohl’s advise to Viktor Orbán: No one should stand on your right

•Viktor Orbán is in „opposition” even in government

•Fidesz-Jobbik: potential coaliton?

CounterstrategiesHow to handle extremism?

Exclusion (cordon sanitaire) or inclusion?

„Demand-side” and/or „supply side?

Positive regional discriminationDemocracy programmesCommunity programmesQuestioning competency Training for journalistsField work for the mainstream parties

Contact: Tamás BOROS

tamas.boros@policysolutions.huwww.policysolutions.hu/en

Thank you for your attention!