RIESGOS Y OPORTUNIDADES EN EL DESARROLLO …...wind & solar projects* *since 2012 200,000+ MW Total...

RIESGOS Y OPORTUNIDADES EN EL DESARROLLO

DE PLANTAS FV Y MINIREN ARGENTINA

BY: DANIEL BARANDALLA, SENIOR PM, DD SERVICES

UL and the UL logo are trademarks of UL LLC © 2018. Proprietary & Confidential. 1

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100+Country locations of

UL renewable energy

customers

500+ UL Renewable

Energy Experts

Independent / Owner’s

Engineer on

450+ wind & solar projects*

*since 2012

200,000+ MWTotal renewable energy megawatts (MW) assessed

55+

ADVISED

90%of the wind and solar

industry’s top PROJECT

DEVELOPERS and

PLANT OWNERS

FORECAST PROVIDER for

72+ GWof installed renewable energy projects

Years of combined experience

in the renewable energy

industry

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WIND SOLAR

UL DRIVES TRUST IN RENEWABLES

OFFSHORE


Project

Development

Support

Asset

ManagementGrid

SolutionsDue Diligence

& Bankability

Testing &

InspectionCertification

Cybersecurity

Software &

DataEnergy

Storage

Solutions

Research &

Advanced

Studies

GLOBAL CONTEXT SOLAR PV


REGIONAL CONTEXT SOLAR PV


Anticipate Risks from early

stage development

Propose the needed

mitigations

Make sure these are taking

place

UL SERVICES SOLAR PV


UL SERVICES SOLAR PV


1-18 months 4-24 months >25 years

Distribution of Risk accross Project lifetime

STAKEHOLDER RISK


Stakeholder Risk

Developer/Owner/

Operator

• Meeting investor expectation

• Rising operating costs

Investor/Lenders• Inaccurate risk assessment

• Declining Cash Flow

EPC/Contractors

• Rising costs

• Project delays

• Quality of work

Insurer• Performance uncertainty

• Equipment failures and lost production

Manufacturer • Warranty

TECHNICAL RISK

ASSESSMENT



▌ On-Site Monitoring Recommendations

▌ Solar Data Assessment Dashboard

▌ Long-Term Resource Assessment Approaches

▌ Modeled Solar Data

▌ TMYs - Scaling and Rebalancing

RESOURCE BEST PRACTICES

ON-SITE MONITORING EQUIPMENT

Typical Monitoring equipment

• Two secondary-standard pyranometers (Kipp

& Zonen, Hukseflux)

• Supporting met measurements (temp, wind

speed, etc.)

• Reference cells for soiling

• Albedometers for bifacial applications

• Heating and ventilation in cold climates

System providers

• Campbell Scientific

• NRG Systems (2016)13

WHEN TO USE ON-SITE MONITORING

Recommended when

1. Minimal regional data is available (certain areas in Latin America)

2. Satellite models tend to have higher uncertainty (dynamic weather

variability, snow cover, areas with microclimates due to topography)

3. Low resource locations (financial margins are narrower)

4. Local off-taker requirements

5. Larger projects (50-500 MW) when financers may be more

conservative with larger investment capital.

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MODELED SOLAR DATA

Modeled Solar Data

• Bankable from high-quality data providers

• Regional and seasonal biases still exist

Resource Uncertainty

• Uncertainty should include validation

reference uncertainty

• Monte Carlo sampling approach under

predicts inter-annual variability

• CPR TGYs are raw (scaling and rebalancing

needed)15

VALUE OF ON-SITE MEASUREMENTS

16


▌ PV Modules

▌ Inverters

▌ Racking and Trackers

EQUIPMENT

TECHNICAL RISK ASSESSMENT FOR MODULES

Long term durability

• Laboratory Tests, IEC and UL tests

• Field tests

• Component lifespan (backsheets, connectors, wires

etc.)

Long term performance

• Long term degradation rates

• System performance monitoring

Warranties and replacement

• Warranty claims, testing, availability of replacement modules, MLPE


UL TEST STANDARDS


• Certifications

• IEC 61215→Field performance of modules

• IEC 61730→Safety agains electrical shock, fire and other hazards

• IEC 61701→Resistance from salt corrosion

• IEC 62716→Resistance from ammonia corrosion

• IEC 60068→Resistance to sand storms required for desertic areas

• IEC 62804→Potential Induced Degradation (“PID”)

• UL1703 → Standard for Flat-Plate Photovoltaic Modules and Panels

• Module tests

• Light Induced Degradation (LID), flash tests, reliability testsUL and the UL logo are trademarks of UL LLC © 2017. Proprietary & Confidential. 20

TECHNOLOGY REVIEW - MODULES

TECHNOLOGY REVIEW – PV MODULES

Is IEC 61646 & 61215 enough?

• Certification results based on a small population. Not Representative of

the manufacturing capacity.

• Do the tests replicate properly conditions that the modules will

withstand on real conditions?

• Do the test replicate extreme conditions that the modules could have

under normal operating conditions?



Is IEC 61646 & 61215 enough?

• Accelerated life tests for IEC standards have been shown to

underestimate some issues arising in outdoor exposure.

Track record of the manufacturer and its internal quality processes are important to have confidence in the durability of the module.

Factory Acceptance Tests, witnessing manufacturing and QA for the

modules to be supplied to the Project should be pursued.



PV stakeholder testing needs and UL

services to meet them.

EVALUATION AND TESTING OF PV MODULES

Safety

• Declare non-hazardous failure conditions

Quality

• Consistency in production

Performance

• Achieve standard test conditions

Durability

• Performs at extreme conditions

Reliability

• Lifetime performance as expected

Compliance to

Standards• UL1703

• IEC 61730

• Other market access

Compliance

to Standards• Factory

Surveillance

• IECRE OD-

405

UL Best

Practice• Statistical

sampling

• Accelerated

lifetime testing

(TC, HF, DH,

DML, UV)

UL Best

Practice• Degradation

modeling (site

specific)

• Pre-ship

evaluations

• On-site As-

received

evaluations

• Specialized

Audits

• In-process batch

testing

Compliance to

Standards• IEC 61215*

• LID

• PID

• PAN File

• IAM

• Sand blast

• Corrosion

• Others

UNDERSTANDING FAILURE RATES


• Infant mortality is usually identified

within ~2-3 months

• Resolution can take

significantly longer

• No easy prediction for when or where component failures will

occur

• Costs of failures in part defines the

useful life of the plant

TYPICAL MODULE FAILURES


TECHNOLOGY REVIEW


• mono PERC is the new cell standard? the latest record efficiency PERC

cell of 23.95% was announced by JinkoSolar, followed by a 23.6% cell

from LONGi Solar. LID / LeTID ?

• Half cells is a simple but very effective means to increase module power.

By cutting the cell into two parts, resistance losses can be reduced, providing a power boost of about 5 to 6 W on the module level.

• Shingle modules are, like half-cut cells, also based on cell slicing – not

into two pieces but several strips. Cell strips are connected in as shingle

manner, similar to roof tiles, which can improve module efficiency by up to

nearly 2%.


TECHNOLOGY REVIEW – WHATS COMING?

• Bifacial technology unveils the rear side of a PV module for sunlight

absorption. The gain varies between 5 and 30%, depending on various

aspects.

• Glass-glass modules are typically advertised with 30-year performance

warranties, but their share is for a number of reasons still very small compared to glass-backsheet modules.


TECHNOLOGY REVIEW – WHATS COMING?

TECHNICAL RISK ASSESSMENT: INVERTERS

Durability

• Failure rates of major components

• Environment

• Operating conditions

• Time to repair/replace components

• Component lifespan (Electrolytic capacitors, IGBT’s,

etc.)

Performance

• Long term performance degradation?

Repairing inverters

• Field repair vs. field replacement

• Availability of components vs. replacement inverters


INVERTER TECHNOLOGY


Implementation

Central• Large (> 5 MW) PV plants

• Grid support functions including reactive

power support and LVRT

String• Typically residential and small commercial

• Beginning to be seen on large (> 50 MW)

plants

MLPE

(Microinverters, DC optimizers)

• Rooftop installations (required by 2014

NEC and Canadian Electrical Code)

Grid integration of

Different Technologies

• Central inverters have been tested to

IEEE 1547 and can provide Grid support

functions

• String inverters have not been field

proven yet

• MLPE typically not seen with grid support

functions

PV SYSTEM TRACKERS

• Most commonly used for large utility scale PV systems

• Some residential sized trackers are manufactured

• Typically used up to about 40° north (south) latitude

• Geo-Tech studies required as part of design process


CAPEX DIFFERENCES

• Trackers have approximately a 5-10% price premium

• Warranties cover structure (typically 10 years) and drive and control components

(typically 5 years)

• Land preparation is typically more intense as trackers have limited ability to handle

slopes


O&M DIFFERENCES

• Fixed tilt installations require minimal maintenance activities

• OPEX costs are approximately 2-5% higher for trackers

• Trackers require adjustments, lubrication and visual inspections

• Tracker control equipment is typically warranted for 5 years

• Corrosivity of the soils and galvanized coating of structural components

determines effective life of mounting system


UL PV STANDARDS FOR SAFETY CERTIFICATION


PV Modules

• IEC 61215

• UL 1703

• UL/IEC 61730

BIPV

• UL 1703 / UL 790

• UL-SU 7103

Connector• UL 6703

Fuse

• UL-SU 2579

Fuse Holder

• UL-SU 4248-18

• ANSI-UL4248-1

Combiner Box

Charge Controller

Inverter

BatteriesAC Loads

Grid Tied or Stand

Alone

Many of the components or

functions can be built into one

product, such as the inverter.

PV Modules w / Junction Box Rack Mounting & Clamping

Devices

• UL 2703

Solar Trackers• UL 3703

Fire Test

• UL 1703

(roof mounted modules)

Polymeric Materials

• UL 1703/61730

• UL 94

• UL-SU5703• UL 746A/B/C

Roof or Ground mounted

Cable for PV

• UL 4703

• UL 9703

• UL 854 (USE-2)

Combiner Box

• UL 1741

Charge Controller

• UL 1741

Inverter

• UL 1741/SA

• UL/IEC 62109 (PV+ only)

• IEEE 1547

Storage

• UL 1989

• UL 2054

• UL 9540

• UL 1973

Disconnects

• UL-SU 98B

• UL-SU 508i

Circuit Breakers• UL 489B

Arc Fault Protection

• UL 1699B

TECHNICAL RISK

ASSESSMENT


EPC BEST PRACTICES (1)

• Experience is everything

• Challenges with the “oversight and subcontract model”

• Short timelines

• Capability oversight

• Align Schedule across all contract requirements (very few “Full Wrap” contracts)

• Interconnection requirements

• PPA cliff dates

• Supply agreements

• O&M scope

• Regular Construction Monitoring

• Ensure all construction is inline with warranty requirements


EPC BEST PRACTICES (2)

• Clear testing protocols

• Commissioning testing to confirm proper operation

• Performance test to validate committed energy production

• Overlap period defined between EPC and O&M provider

• Project benefits when EPC is the O&M for at least 2-3 years

• Warranties

• 1-5 years in workmanship

• Performance guarantees and LDs are key to identify and implement claims

• Challenges in defining fault (equipment, installation, design, etc.)


TECHNICAL RISK ASSESSMENT: SYSTEM DESIGN

REVIEW

• Suitability of equipment for location and design

• Review of DC and AC electrical design

• Mechanical design review of foundations, mounting systems and other structures

• Performance and commissioning testing review

• Review of O&M procedures and schedule

• Construction Monitoring

• Post installation inspection


COMPONENTS INCLUDED IN CIVIL DESIGN REVIEW

• Internal roads, fencing, and drainage system verification

• Hydrological and hydraulic design review including peak flows, flow model, erosion

and sedimentation damage control, etc.

• Main equipment logistics (solar modules, tracker, inverters, main transformers, etc.)


FIELD EXAMPLES


Limited erosion control Remediation

• Drainage / Structural / Getotechnical / Hydrological


DESIGN REVIEW – CIVIL / ELECTRICAL

O&M/AM BEST PRACTICES (1)

• Experience is everything

• Clearly defined scope of work across all contracts

• Adequate visual inspection protocol for PM visits

• Response time guarantees for downtime events

• Monitoring and data analysis

• A strong Asset Management team can offset a weaker O&M team

• Monitoring system for advanced fault detections and issue isolation

• Performance calculation equation and assumptions

• Correcting for actual environmental conditions (irradiance, soiling,

snow, temperature)


O&M/AM BEST PRACTICES (2)

• Cost savings of using same development team for O&M and AM are often

offset by

• conflict of interest around plant performance issues

• increased vendor bankability risk

• Intelligent cleaning of modules (snow and dirt)

• Alignment between AM and O&M teams on spare part management

• Warranties

• Availability and performance guarantees are crucial to optimal yield

• Very limited beyond contract term


CHALLENGES DURING OPERATION


CONCLUSION


UL can support your Project to succeed by:

1. Preparing a good tender for RFP

2. Defining a suitable technology verification program

3. Review of engineering practices applied during construction

GRACIAS!

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TYPICAL COMPONENT FAILURES/ISSUES


Component Issues Mitigation

Inverter

Control system malfunction

Not operating to spec sheet

IGBTs, Fans, Trips, Grid code compliance

Manufacturing quality reviews

Quality warranty coverage

Engineering design controls

Commissioning/Acceptance testing

Well defined O&M scope

Trackers

Tracking inaccuracy

Damage due to not going into stow

Vibrational/motion damage to modules

Cabling and powering

Frost heave

Detailed Performance monitoring

Optimized PM

Commissioning quality control

Site design

Geotechnical studies

Fixed Tilt

Ground shift creating mismatch

Frost heave

Corrosion

Incorrect torque on module clamping

Optimized PM


Site design

Geotechnical studies

Sensors

Incorrect calibration of sensors

Sensor misalignment

Over-soiling relative to modules

Well defined O&M scope

Detailed performance monitoring


RIESGOS Y OPORTUNIDADES EN EL DESARROLLO …...wind & solar projects* *since 2012 200,000+ MW Total...

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Transcript of RIESGOS Y OPORTUNIDADES EN EL DESARROLLO …...wind & solar projects* *since 2012 200,000+ MW Total...