Richard Maue, Chief Financial Officer · 1/29/2019 · I&S acquisition (closed 1/31/2020) purchase...
Transcript of Richard Maue, Chief Financial Officer · 1/29/2019 · I&S acquisition (closed 1/31/2020) purchase...
Crane Co. Financial Overview
Richard Maue, Chief Financial Officer
AGENDA
2
2019 Results
2020 Outlook
Multi-Year Outlook
Capital Deployment
Summary
FULL-YEAR 2019 EARNINGS SUMMARY
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FY 2019 FY 2018 Change
Sales $3,283 $3,346 (2%)
Operating Profit* $494 $485 +2%
Operating Margin* 15.0% 14.5% +50 bps
Earnings per Share* $6.02 $5.99 +1%
Free Cash Flow** $325 $305 +7%
FY 2019
Core Growth (0.4%)
Acquisitions, net +0.1%
FX Translation (1.6%)
Total Sales Change (1.9%)
FY 2019
Diluted EPS: GAAP $2.20
Asbestos Provision $2.98
Repositioning $0.43
Environmental and Other $0.41
Diluted EPS: non-GAAP $6.02
Additional Details
$ Millions Except per-share Amounts
* Excludes Special Items. Please see non-GAAP Financial Measures tables for details. ** Free cash flow is defined as cash provided by operating activities less capital spending. Please see non-GAAP Financial Measures tables for details.
FY 2019 SEGMENT RESULTS VS. ORIGINAL GUIDANCE**
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Core Sales Growth Segment Margin*
ActualOriginal
GuidanceChange Actual
Original Guidance
Change
Fluid Handling +3.9% +4% (10 bps) 13.6% 13.0% +60 bps
Payment & Merchandising Technologies (6.1%) (7%) +90 bps 16.2% 19.0% (280 bps)
Aerospace & Electronics +7.5% +4% +350 bps 24.1% 23.5% +60 bps
Engineered Materials (14.2%) Flat NM 12.9% 15.0% (210 bps)
Crane Co. (0.4%) (2%) to +1% +10 bps 15.0% 15.8% (80 bps)
* Excludes Special Items. Please see non-GAAP Financial Measures tables for details.** Original segment guidance as provided on January 29, 2019.
2019 EPS* GUIDANCE (AS PRESENTED FEBRUARY 28, 2019)
5* Excludes Special Items. Please see non-GAAP Financial Measures tables for details.
+13%
Non-Repeating
Benefits from 2018
2019 ACTUAL EPS* BRIDGE
6* Excludes Special Items. Please see non-GAAP Financial Measures tables for details. 2019G refers to EPS guidance as originally provided on January 28, 2019.
Non-Repeating
Benefits from 2018
+7%
AGENDA
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2019 Results
2020 Outlook
Multi-Year Outlook
Capital Deployment
Summary
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OperatingMargin*
11.2% 12.1% 13.2% 14.4% 14.0% 13.8% 14.0% 14.7% 14.5% 15.0% 15.0%
$244
$303
$341
$373
$410
$379 $384$409
$485 $494
$525
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020G
FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
• SOLID LONG-TERM TRACK RECORD
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Total Sales ($ Billions)
Operating Profit* ($ Millions)
$2.2
$2.5$2.6 $2.6
$2.9$2.7 $2.7 $2.8
$3.3 $3.3
$3.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020G
* Excludes Special Items. Please see non-GAAP Financial Measures tables for details. ** Reflects midpoint of core growth guidance range.
CoreGrowth
+0.6% +9.8% +4.3% +0.0% +0.3% (1.2%) 2.0% 1.1% 2.8% (0.4%) (0.5%)
**
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2020 GUIDANCE SUMMARY
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2019 2020G Change****
Net Sales* $3,283 $3,510 +7%
Earnings per Share** $6.02 $6.20–$6.50 +5%
Free Cash Flow*** $325 $330–$360 +6%
2020G Other 2020 Guidance Details
Core Growth (2%) to +1% • Adjusted tax rate of ~21.5%
• Corporate expense of ~$67 million
• Non-operating expense, net**, of
~$39 million (inclusive of ~$47
million of net interest expense)
• Diluted share count of ~60 million
• Capital expenditures of $75 millionAcquisitions +8%
FX Translation (0.5%) to (1%)
Total Sales Change +7%
$ Millions Except per-share Amounts
* For 2020G, we included acquisition-related revenue, which constitutes revenue reflected as pre-acquisition deferred revenue that would otherwise be recognized but for the purchase accounting treatment of acquisitions. Please see non-GAAP Financial Measures tables for details. ** Excludes Special Items. Please see non-GAAP Financial Measures tables for details. *** Free Cash Flow is defined as Cash Provided by Operating Activities, less Capital Spending. Please see non-GAAP Financial Measures tables for details.**** Reflects midpoint of guidance range.
2020 EPS* GUIDANCE
10
+5%
* Excludes Special Items. Please see non-GAAP Financial Measures tables for details.
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Core Growth
2020 GROWTH OUTLOOK
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• OVERALL CORE GROWTH EXPECTED TO DECLINE SLIGHTLY
% of Crane
(2020G*)2016 2017 2018 2019 2020G* Comments
34%Fluid
Handling(6%) +2% +4% +4% Flat
+ Growth initiatives
- Process end markets
38%Payment &
MerchandisingTechnologies
+9% +6% +2% (6%) +1%
+ Payment & international currency demand
- U.S. Government currency destocking
- Merchandising demand
22%Aerospace & Electronics
+8% (7%) +8% +8% (3%)
+ Solid defense spending
+ New program wins
- 737 MAX production pause
- Decelerating commercial aftermarket
6%Engineered
Materials+1% +7% (12%) (14%) (1%)
+ Solid execution and pricing
- RV retail / wholesale demand soft
* Reflects midpoint of guidance range.
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2016 2017 2018 2019 2020G Comments
Fluid Handling 10.9% 11.1% 11.7% 13.6% 14.0%+ Productivity and repositioning
- I&S initially margin dilutive
Payment & MerchandisingTechnologies
17.9% 20.5% 17.4% 16.2% 16.0%
+ Productivity and repositioning
- Cummins Allison initially margin dilutive
- Mix (lower USG sales)
Aerospace & Electronics 20.1% 21.8% 22.2% 24.1% 23.5%+ Productivity
- Volume
Engineered Materials 19.1% 18.0% 15.5% 12.9% 13.5%+ Productivity and price
- Volume
2020 SEGMENT MARGIN* OUTLOOK
• EXPECT FLAT CONSOLIDATED ADJUSTED OPERATING MARGIN DESPITE CORE SALES DECLINE
AND ACQUISITION RELATED MARGIN DILUTION12
Segment Margin*
* Excludes Special Items. Please see non-GAAP Financial Measures tables for details.
»
AGENDA
2019 Results
2020 Outlook
Multi-Year Outlook
Capital Deployment
Summary
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Across-the-Cycle Target 2020G*
Avg. Core Growth Segment Margin Core Growth Segment Margin**
Fluid Handling +2%–4% 13%–18% Flat 14.0%
Payment & MerchandisingTechnologies
+3%–5% 18%–22% +1% 16.0%
Aerospace & Electronics +3%–5% 21%–24% (3%) 23.5%
Engineered Materials GDP 12%–16% (1%) 13.5%
LONG-TERM FINANCIAL EXPECTATIONS BY SEGMENT
• EXPECT LONG-TERM CORE EBIT GROWTH OF APPROXIMATELY 6% TO 8%
14* Reflects midpoint of guidance range.** Excludes Special Items. Please see non-GAAP Financial Measures tables for details.
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PATH TO $7.50+ EPS IN 2021
$0.45+
* Excludes Special Items. Please see non-GAAP Financial Measures tables for details.15
$7.50+
AGENDA
2019 Results
2020 Outlook
Multi-Year Outlook
Capital Deployment
Summary
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STRUCTURAL FREE CASH CONVERSION* IMPROVING
• STRONG TRACK RECORD ON OPERATIONAL FREE CASH FLOW
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0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Average 94%
Average 78%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Average 107%Average 99%
Free Cash Conversion Free Cash Conversion (Excluding Asbestos)
* Free Cash Flow is defined as Cash Provided by Operating Activities less Capital Spending. Free Cash Flow conversion is defined as Free Cash Flow divided by Net Income excluding Special Items. Please see non-GAAP Financial Measures tables for details.
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CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT PRIORITIES
• Internal investments to drive organic growth
– Capital Expenditures
– Research & Development
– Sales & Marketing
• Acquisitions to enhance growth
• Competitive returns to shareholders
– Target total payout ratio of 40%–50%
» Growing dividends in-line with earnings
» Opportunistic share repurchases
• Pension and legacy liability requirements
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• FOCUS ON BOTH ORGANIC AND INORGANIC GROWTH
Maintain Investment Grade Credit Rating While Funding:
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TARGET LEVERAGE LEVELS
• Target 2x–3x adjusted debt to EBITDA, excluding Special Items
– Adjusted debt =
» Gross financial debt
» + Pension liability
» + After-tax net asbestos
• Deploy cash balances and debt capacity
– Internal investments
– Acquisitions
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• COMMITTED TO CURRENT INVESTMENT GRADE RATING
Debt to EBITDA*
12/31/2017 ~2.7X
1/31/2018 ~4.1X
12/31/2018 ~2.5X
12/31/2019 ~2.9X(PF for I&S acquisition)
»* Debt to EBITDA calculated using the methodology published by Moody’s including adjustments for asbestos, pension, leases, Special Items and other adjustments. For 12/31/2019, Debt
to EBITDA is pro forma for the I&S acquisition.
LEVERAGE CALCULATIONS
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• CURRENT ADJUSTED PRO FORMA DEBT-TO-EBITDA OF ~2.85X»
Adjusted Debt ($ Millions) Adjusted EBITDA
Gross Debt (12/31/2019 Balance Sheet) $991 2019 Non-GAAP Operating Profit $494
Asbestos (net of tax and insurance) $485 2019 Interest, net ($44)
Pension, leases, and other adjustments ~$370 2019 Other adjustments, including pension $14
Adjusted Debt as of 12/31/2019 ~$1,846 Non-GAAP Pre-Tax Income $464
I&S acquisition (closed 1/31/2020) purchase price, net of cash-on-hand used in the transaction
~$75 Interest Expense $47
Adjusted Debt pro forma for I&S acquisition ~$1,921 Depreciation & Amortization $114
Adjustments (pension, leases, etc.) ~$12
2019 Adjusted EBITDA $637
2019 Adj. EBITDA from Cummins Allison and I&S $38
2019 Adjusted EBITDA pro forma for Cummins Allison and I&S acquisitions
$675
* Debt to EBITDA calculated using the methodology published by Moody’s including adjustments for asbestos, pension, leases, Special Items and other adjustments.
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COMMITMENT TO RETURN CASH
• WILL MAINTAIN DIVIDEND PAYOUT BETWEEN 25%–30%,
BUT M&A PRIORITIZED OVER REPURCHASES IN RECENT YEARS21
33%28% 29% 27% 28%
32% 31% 29%23% 26% 27%
32% 39%
23%19% 10%
9%14%
22%
65%67%
52%
27%
47%
42%
31%
38%37%
47%
27%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020G*
Dividend Payout Repurchase Payout
Avg. Range
40%–50%
»* 2020G based on adjusted EPS guidance midpoint of $6.35 and annual dividend of $1.72.
»
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT POTENTIAL
• ADDITIONAL VALUE CREATION POTENTIAL
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$2.5–$3.0 Billion Available from 2018–2021
OperatingCash Flow
Repatriated Cash
IncrementalDebt Capacity
Capital Expenditures
Dividends
M&A & Repurchases Committed in 2019
M&A and/orRepurchases
Sources Uses
~$1.5B to $2B
Available for M&A
and/or Repurchases while
Retaining Credit Metrics
Consistent with Existing
Investment Grade Rating
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ACQUISITIONS DRIVING SIGNIFICANT BUSINESS WIDE SAVINGS
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Forecast Synergies Actual Synergies
Instrumentation &
Sampling
~1.5x-2x
Over Past 10 Years, Acquisition Synergy Realization ~1.5x to 2x Original Forecast
AGENDA
2019 Results
2020 Outlook
Multi-Year Outlook
Capital Deployment
Summary
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WHY INVESTORS SHOULD HAVE CONTINUED CONFIDENCE
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Portfolio of healthy, high ROI businesses across portfolio
Leading, 'sticky' positions in long-cycle demand markets
Outstanding operator with differentiated CBS capability
Significant free cash generator
Disciplined capital allocator
High value M&A potential in core segments
High-performance culture based on ethics and integrity
» www.craneco.com