‘Adapting Good Enough’ for a Complex World

(using the science of complexity)

Rich ByrneVice President, The MITRE Corporationrbyrne@mitre.org

OPERATIONS: Why is Winning a War Easy, but Keeping the

Peace Hard?

ACQUISITION: Have We Lost the Recipe for

Big Programs?

CYBER:How Do You Fight a

Virtual War where the Enemy has the all the

Asymmetric Advantages?

And It’s Not Just in the DOD

Financial MeltdownHealthcare

Crisis

Complexity Theory May Have an Answer!

2005

2007

2009

2002

2003

Unpredictable Emergent Behavior

is UbiquitousFrom

‘Fixed Perfect’ Requirements(watchmaker)

to‘Adapting Good

Enough” Requirements

(gardener)

‘Adapting Good Enough’ Successes(80% Solution)

CPOFTIGR

ROVERGMTI

PredatorFalconview

Innovation Easier Than Integration(Healthy Complex Networks a

Balance!)

>60%of Army

systems in theater aren’t Programs of

Record

Composable Capability on Demand

(Harmonizing Innovation with Integration)

SOA1SOA1

SOA3SOA3

RESTREST

ERPERP

Web2.0Web2.0

SOA2SOA2

ESBESB

TADILJTADILJ

Nato-ExNato-Ex

ACARSACARS

USMTFUSMTF

EPLRSEPLRS

Link-22Link-22

JVMFJVMF

SIGINTSIGINT

OSINTOSINT

CommercialCommercial

CellphonesCellphones

HumansHumans

IMINTIMINT

MASINTMASINT

APPLICATIONS

INFO INFRASTRUCTURE

INMARSATINMARSAT

JTRSJTRS

PRC117PRC117

TTNTTTNT

CTIICTII

JTIDSJTIDS

ARC210ARC210

NETWORKS

SENSORSGeoRSS, SensorXML

CoT, UCORE, Ontologies

RSS, Mashups, Chat, Office

IP Gateways, IPoL, IP

Loose Couplers for Global Integration across “Groups”

Continuous and Rapid LocalInnovations in “Groups”

Virtualization(A Key Enabler of CCoD)

SPEED ISPAN: Deployment from 1-12 wks to 8 hrsWEIGHT TDC: Reduced from 1800 to 600 lbsFOOTPRINT AOC: 60% less machines, 78% less power/HVACADAPTABILITY Composable Ops Centers on Demand using App Stores

Large NetworksHave Radically Different Statistics

FromBell Curves

to Power Laws

Loose Couplers Applied to

Enterprise Data Sharing

Blue Force Tracking:What: FriendlyWhere: 72.31234º...When: 1930Z—…Details: www.4thBgd//...

Surveillance results:What: ISR dataWhere: 73º—74º...When: 1930Z—…Details: www. intel.af//...

Direct Fire Mission:What: HostileWhere: 72.558º...When: 1950Z—…Details: www. biggun.army//...

Air Space Deconfliction:What: ReservationWhere: 72º, 73º, 74º, When: 1950Z—…Details: www. batttery.army...

UAV Data Sharing Using Loose Couplers (Based on Power

Laws)

“we are using the C2PC adapter for our Scan Eagle UAV’s. ..working extremely

well…we want more!” S/F, Maj Rob Buzby

IMEF Info Management Officer

Camp Fallujah Iraq (11/12/04)

Pioneer

Predator-Link16

Scan Eagle

UAV SA JFCOM Cmdr. James M. Joyner, “a de facto standard for

tactical system integration." (1/06/05)

14

Loose Couplers at Network Level

(loose coupler) IP IP (loose coupler)

Email

Targeting

Ecommerce

Searches

Payroll

Applications

ATM

SONET

Ethernet

DWM

Datalinks

Dial-UpCable Modem

DSL

Technologies

SONETDatalinksDial-UpCable ModemDSL

TechnologiesDWMEthernetATM

Diverse Local Innovations Above and Below the Convergent IP Loose Coupler Diverse Local Innovations Above and Below the Convergent IP Loose Coupler

DatalinkDiversity

ApplicationDiversity

IP

JSTARS & AWACS IP/Chat as Loose Couplers (Based on Power Laws)

PC + LegacyRadio

Radio Driver

IP Transport

E-mail

Chat

Imagery

SA

IP-Based System

Self-OrganizingCritical States Are Natural

From Centralized

(single failure point) to

Decentralized (distributed failure

points)

COIN Collector on the iPhone

17

Accept Uncertainty

From Protection

(they will get in)to

Resilience (fight thru attack)

Resilient Cyber Solutions (Reversing the Asymmetric

Advantage)

Assume Attacks Will Succeed & Rebuild VMs Routinely

VM ‘physics’ is very different

Constantly Change the Attack Surface from a Million Random Variations

Separate Internal/ExternalNetworks to Slow Down Massive Data Exfiltration

Complexity Best Shaped withLong Term not Short Term Variables

From Short Term

Targets (symptoms)

to Long Term

Targets (underlying diseases)

Smart Power’s Longer Term FocusFor “Deep Security”

Training CampsHuman CapitalFighters and LeadersTechnical Expertise

Weapons Suppliers

Sympathetic Membersof Legitimate Govt’s

Financiers and Front Companies

Safe Havens

Recruitment and Education

Internet and Proselytizing

Media and Propaganda

IdeologicallySympathetic NGOs

Facilitators, Smugglers

WMD Research and Development

‘Adapting Good

Enough’for a

Complex World

SOC (POWER TO THE EDGE)From: Centralized solutionsTo: Decentralized solutions

Uncertainty (FIGHT THRU ATTACK)From: Eliminating uncertainty/riskTo: Accepting uncertainty/risk

Power Laws (LOOSE COUPLERS)From: Uniform data interop req’tsTo: 80/20 data interop req’ts

Deep Security (SMART POWER)From: Short-term symptomsTo: Long-term diseases

Emergent Behavior (CCoD)From: Perfect, fixed req’tsTo: Adaptive, good enough req‘ts

Changing Impossible Problems Into Great Opportunities

CYBER: Taking Back the Initiative in Cyber Asymmetry: Dramatically increase the cost of cyber attacks Mission focus: Use technology for effectiveness, not efficiency Doctrine: Learn to leverage the ‘new’ physics of cyber (time, space,

cost)

ACQUISITIONS: Getting Back the Recipe Cost: Maintain continuous competition and evolution of small things Schedule: Build integrate-able components not integrated systems Performance: Fixed perfect req’ts become adaptive good enough req’ts

OPERATIONS: Winning Battles of Complexity Decentralize: Push power to the edge Adapt: Enable warriors to compose new capabilities on demand Focus: Address the long term networks, not just the short term threats

‘Adapting Good Enough’For a Complex World

The Watchmaker: Everything has its place.

Traditional Systems Eng

Static: As Is – To Be ViewsPassive: One Design ChoiceUniform: All Parts Are Equal

The Gardener: Plant, Fertilize, Weed; Repeat.

Enterprise Systems Eng

Dynamic: Constant ChangeCompetitive: Crops compete

Scale Free: 80-20 Rule