Rice Industry Field Day Global Market and Strategy Update

28
Rice Industry Field Day Global Market and Strategy Update Rob Gordon - Chief Executive Officer Thursday 15 March 2018

Transcript of Rice Industry Field Day Global Market and Strategy Update

Page 1: Rice Industry Field Day Global Market and Strategy Update

Rice Industry Field Day

Global Market and Strategy Update

Rob Gordon - Chief Executive Officer

Thursday 15 March 2018

Page 2: Rice Industry Field Day Global Market and Strategy Update

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Global Outlook• Global Market

• California Developments

• Global Stockpiles

• Foreign Exchange

• Rice Remains Attractive

Pure, Premium &

Sustainable• Resilience Proved

• Five-Year Strategy

• Vietnam Developments

• Profit Businesses Success

• Attracting Customers &

Facilitating Growers

• Summary

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Pricing Indicators

World Rice Prices

Foreign Exchange

Milling Yields

Crop Size

Branded Markets Smooth Pricing

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Medium Grain Prices: Tender Markets

Source: Creed Report

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

Japan Minimum Access Pricing (10 Years)US$/tonne (FOB Origin Port)

Period since lastField Day

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Medium Grain Prices: Tender Markets

$835$820

$775

$775$755

$755$745

$735

$735

$710$685

$580$570

$550

$560

$565

$535

$530 $530

$540

$740$749

$752

$770$780

$810$805 $820

$850$830

$870$880

520

570

620

670

720

770

820

870

920

970

Japan Minimum Access Pricing (Since Sept 2015)

Award Price - FOB California Port Period Since 2017 Rice Field Day

US$/tonne

Source: Creed Report

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California Annual Plantings

Source: SunRice

550

473

533

509

595

528 526

534

519

561

558

585

562

567

445

429

541

440

500

400

450

500

550

600

'000 acres California Rice Acres Planted

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California: Conditions for our major competitor

• Following drought, gap emerged between the C16 crop and lower

than expected plantings: late harvest in C17 caused short supply

- Millers chased volume by dropping price in most markets in C16

Californian exports forecast to be 24% lower than last year

- Few export sales beyond core Northeast Asian and Canadian markets

- Smallest export volume since West Coast port strikes in 2014/15

From 30-year highs in 2017, US Medium and Short Grain stockpiles

have now declined by 19% to 9.3 million tonnes

- Anticipated that California stockpiles of medium grain could be almost fully

depleted by end of the US current crop year (around September 2018)

California prices have been steadily rising since March 2017

We expect Japanese tender prices will remain above US$800/tonne

until new US crop supply becomes available in October 2018

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California: Unfavourable Water Conditions Developing

Water storage continues to

show above average due to

the 2016/17 record water year

YTD 2017/18 water

accumulation 65% of normal

Accumulation potential

diminishing for balance of the

water year

- Snow water content is at 30%

of average

- Next month’s rainfall will be

crucial

Water situation could

negatively impact size of the

2018 Californian rice crop

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Global Stockpiles still High

Source: USDA

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Million tonnes Rice Stockpiles: China / Thailand / Egypt + 'Rest of World'

China Thailand Egpyt Rest of the World

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Large Stockpiles being Unwound in China & Egypt

As a result of high floor prices for domestic farmers, China has a stockpile of

94 million tonnes, which accounts for 67% of overall global stockpiles

China is now unwinding this stockpile, especially into lower returning

markets, especially in Asia, Africa and the Pacific

China’s exports almost tripled in 2017 and are expected to increase a

further 36% in 2018 (the highest level since 2003)

Egypt is also taking steps to unwind growing stockpiles, lifting restrictions on

exports and imposing tariffs on imports

Thailand has unwound stockpiles to current levels around 3 million tonnes

from over 11 million tonnes in 2015

Typical trend would be for prices to soften as stockpile levels are unwound

SunRice strategy of selling premium Riverina rice into high returning

markets and sourcing rice beyond Australia to satisfy demand

in lower returning markets assists in insulating Australian

growers from cyclical price trends

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Foreign Exchange Movements – A$/US$

Stronger A$/US$ exchange rate is

unfavourable for international rice sales

SunRice was hedged at average of

US$0.75 for FY18

SunRice’s rice price sensitivity to

exchange rate fluctuations: US$0.01

movement equates to A$13/tonne

Most senior US central bankers expect

at least three interest rate increases in

the US during 2018

Majority of our banking syndicate are

presently forecasting A$ to depreciate

over 2018

PNG Kina depreciation has continued,

albeit at a slower rate over the past year

Strategy of sourcing rice beyond

Australia to satisfy demand in lower

returning, and often volatile,

markets reduces exposure

for Australian growers

Sources: Bloomberg

0.30

0.32

0.34

0.36

0.38

0.40

PNG Kina/US$ (since January 2015)

Period since 2017 Field Day

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

A$/US$ (since January 2015)

Period since 2017 Field Day

Average Hedging for FY18: US$0.75

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Is the A$ Set to Depreciate?

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

AUD/USDUS 10 YEAR YIELD 10 YEAR RATE SPREAD - AUS v US

10 YEAR BOND SPREAD AUvUS AUD/USD

Source: Bloomberg

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Iron Ore Pricing versus AUD/USD

Source: Bloomberg

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

AUD/USDIron Ore Price Iron Ore Price - AUD v USD

Iron Ore Mid Price: US$/tonne (LHS)

AUD/USD

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Crop Size and Milling Yield

Source: SunRice

800 963 1,161 829 690 244 802

Forecast 600

59.3%

55.4%

48.3%

57.4%

58.5%

54.9%

57.2%Forecast

58.0%

40

45

50

55

60

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Crop Size and Average MG Milling Yield

Crop Size ('000 tonnes) - LHS Milling YieldMilling Yield (%)'000 tonnes

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Pricing Indicators: On Balance Positive

World Rice Prices

Foreign Exchange

Milling Yields

Crop Size

Branded Markets & Sale of Premium Varieties

Ensure Stronger Pricing

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SunRice Provides Reliable Paddy Price Indicators

SunRice has developed a

consistent track record of

providing growers with

reliable price range

indicators and guidance

Regular adjustments to

price range guidance are

communicated to growers

depending on market and

trading conditions

Base of the C17 paddy

price range has increased

by $50/tonne over the past

six months

- now $350-365/tonne

$275

$317

$294

$395$404

$415

220

260

300

340

380

420

460

C11 C12 C13 C14 C15 C16 C17

Riverina Paddy PriceA$/tonne (Reiziq)

C17 Range$350-365

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Rice Remains an Attractive Prospect for C19

SunRice has demonstrated the insulating power that our brands and

international trading activities provide against

- Price cycles

- Increasing competition in lower returning markets

- Exchange rate volatility in certain markets

For previous crops SunRice has provided an opportunity for growers to

minimize risk by offering fixed price contracts for certain premium

varieties – this practice was well received and will continue in C19

- Growers can plan for both winter and summer crop rotations, given certainty

on pricing for particular rice varieties (in some cases 23 months in advance)

Base of the C17 paddy price range has increased by $50/tonne over the

past six months (now $350-365/tonne)

C18 paddy price outlook and fixed price contracts for specialty varieties

will be announced after March board meeting

Having demonstrated resilience during the cyclical downturn,

SunRice is now poised to take advantage of demand in high

returning markets for our premium Australian rice

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Pure, Premium &

Sustainable

• Resilience Proved

• Five-Year Strategy

• Vietnam Developments

• Profit Businesses Success

• Attracting Customers &

Facilitating Growers

• Summary

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Resilience Proved: Focus returns to Expansion

Over the past five years, SunRice’s strategy to expand the business

has succeeded in:

- Improving financial performance, with turnover now well exceeding

A$1 billion;

- Building a resilient business to weather cyclical downturns;

- Increasing grower returns: paddy prices A$350-$415/tonne;

- Increasing shareholder returns: dividend yield of ~8% per annum

- Diversifying our source of supply from beyond the Riverina; and

- Increasing demand for SunRice product: in FY19 (C18) anticipated at

between 1.4-1.5 million paddy tonnes.

There is an excellent foundation for further growth of the business

- Taking advantage of global trends

- Leveraging SunRice’s distinct competitive advantages

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Five-year Strategy: Pure, Premium & Sustainable

Our five-year strategy identifies where these growth opportunities

exist and outlines what we need to do to maximise the benefits

Three overarching themes to the refreshed strategy:

1. The provenance of Australian rice

Riverina growers to focus on growing premium, high-value varietals

(such as Medium Grain, Low GI, Opus and Koshihikari) to meet

increasing demand for quality, ‘clean and green’, healthy products

2. Utilising our various sustainable global supply chains to respond

to increased demand

Lower returning and more volatile markets will be supplied with

affordable yet high-quality rice grown outside of Australia

3. Matching global food trends from our diversified product portfolio.

Page 21: Rice Industry Field Day Global Market and Strategy Update

Fortunately, being an Australian-owned branded rice player today is

exciting given that the world is changing in our favour

21

Developing

countries that are

rice eating nations

are ramping up the

wealth curve, in

search for premium

and convenience

Rice eating

nations are

becoming obese

and diabetic, and

will likely favour

a Low GI offering

An ongoing

global

fascination

with Sushi

Many rice-eating

nations are

searching for food

safety assurances

Movement away

from sugars, gluten

and animal protein

has led to growth in

rice flour, rice

syrups, rice bran +

rice proteins

Healthy Snacking

on the rise

(including Gluten

Free Snacks)

Food trends that affect SunRice

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Our greater emphasis on sushi and Low GI rices will likely resonate

with the Asian consumer – we will further emphasise these varietals in

the Riverina going forward

Overweight populations in Asia

100100

3

10

50

33

ANZUS JapanME +

S.Africa

Asia

excl

Japan

EU

Global Sushi demand Indexed: Japan size indexed to 100

Japanese cuisine

restaurants outside Japan

increased by 16% CAGR

from 2006 to 2015

Diabetes is the world’s fastest growing chronic disease

60% of diabetics in the world live in Asia

Several Asian nations have reached critical levels, where

25-45% of population is overweight

A disproportionate number of diabetics live in

Asia relative to other regions

‒ Analysts have pointed to the growing

need for a competitive Low GI rice product

Overweight prevalence (%) in adults

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Expansion of Short Grain would Benefit Growers

219

100

51

Koshi and

Low GI

MG High-

Returning

markets

MG Low-

Returning

markets

Indexed – a comparison of paddy returnsMedium Grain to High-returning markets =

Indexed at 100 Riverina should be positioned as

the premium Medium Grain source

for premium Medium Grain

markets

Riverina well positioned to grow

high-returning varietals, such as

short grain, that are growing in

demand and have less global

competition

We need not abandon our lower

returning markets, but serve them

from lower cost supply sources

- Require permanent offshore supply

to serve these lower-returning

markets

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The 2017 Strategy aims to reposition the higher-cost Riverina supply as

our premium supply source intended for premium end-markets. →This means growing higher-returning varietals, investing in equipment that ensures a premium finish, and increase efficiency

We aim to ensure that the Riverina grower can compete against cotton through the

SunRice 5R Proposition. The Riverina is well positioned to grow some high-

returning varietals that are growing in demand and have less global competition

We will promote fewer but higher-earning varietals

- Focus on Premium-market Medium Grain, Short Grains and Low GI

- More streamlined supply chain

- Supportive agronomic packages

Greater forward-pricing arrangements and a minimum guarantee for the pool

Invest in operations and storage to streamline operations, increase efficiency

and reduce cost

SunRice’s 5R Proposition:

- Maximise reliable

- Manage farmer Risks, Relationship and Research

- Enhance the Reputational image of the industry and the quality of our

message

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Vietnam: Ensuring SunRice is able to service our high volume

yet low value markets from a lower cost supply source

600,000 paddy tonnes of exports per annum: SunRice is one of Vietnam’s

larger rice exporters (5% of total exports and ~50% of Japonica exports)

SunRice has ensured that the mills we contract are ISO and HACCP

accredited

Pesticide, fertiliser and input management through using certified growers,

and through working directly to control agronomic practices

Competitive pricing: over four years have delivered an increase in returns

over long grain to farmers by an average of 30% at farm-gate

Export and logistics capability through extensive network of providers: over

the past 18 months there were 724 shipments across 24 ports

Establish breeding programmes to improve yields and address consumer

preferences: yields have increased from 7 to 10 tonnes/hectare

Assessment of viable mills in relevant growing regions has

intensified

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Profits Businesses Critical to Ongoing Success

Includes International

Rice Business, Rice

Food, Riviana and

CopRice

Diverse mix of profit

businesses

- Riviana

- SunFoods

- Trukai

Increasing globally

traded volumes

requires intensified

global sourcing

- Last year secured

500,000 paddy tonnes

to fill Riverina

shortfall

22.7

36.0

33.5

49.2

52.0

34.2

C17 Guidance45.0

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

C11 C12 C13 C14 C15 C16 C17

SunRice NPAT$ Million

In C17, the rice pool was supplemented by

Profits Businesses, recognizing the loyalty of

growers who dedicated resources to rice

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Attracting Customers & Facilitating Growers

Customer Engagement

Initiation of ‘paddy to plate’ tours to the Riverina for present and potential

customers in key markets to educate on our premium offering and

traceability through our vertically integrated supply chain

- 10 touring parties visited in the past year from Japan, Korea and China

- Record sales to Japan in FY18 (35,000 milled tonnes)

- Two year contract signed in November to supply short grain to Japan

- Category Business Teams established to focus on growth markets, as well as Low

GI and ingredients

Ongoing R&D is Critical

Rice partnership + RRAPL

YRM70 (Viand) & YRK5 varieties

Research to develop a Low GI Medium Grain variety

Research into tropical varieties in Queensland and Vietnam

- Including a unique ‘puffing rice’ variety for Kellogg's

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Summary: International Focus, Local Benefits

Meeting the ever increasing demand of our global customers, who

are willing to pay for a sustainable supply of premium Riverina

rice, and matching consumer trends with relevant products.

We will concentrate Riverina supply on higher value varieties to

service the most premium markets to lift paddy returns

Traditional high volume, low value markets will be serviced from

lower cost supply chains

Both growers and shareholders will benefit from a more

internationally focused SunRice