Ricardo de Gusmao Dornelles: Brazil & the U.S.: Strategic Energy Dialogue
-
Upload
national-ethanol-conference -
Category
Education
-
view
326 -
download
0
Transcript of Ricardo de Gusmao Dornelles: Brazil & the U.S.: Strategic Energy Dialogue
![Page 1: Ricardo de Gusmao Dornelles: Brazil & the U.S.: Strategic Energy Dialogue](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022030306/586fee191a28ab92198b5b87/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Opportunities for Ethanol Export in Key Target Markets
Brazil and the US
Strategic Energy Dialogue
Ricardo DornellesHead of Renewable Fuels Department
New Orleans, February 2016
Ministry of Mines and EnergySecretary of Oil, Natural Gas and Renewable Fuels
![Page 2: Ricardo de Gusmao Dornelles: Brazil & the U.S.: Strategic Energy Dialogue](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022030306/586fee191a28ab92198b5b87/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Brazil and the US Biofuels CooperationBrazil and the US governments work together in bioenergy cooperation since 2003.
In biofuels, both countries are the main producers and market that developed a huge ethanol economy which contributes for decarbonization of transport sector.
MME – DoE (MoU 2003 – Cooperation in Energy Area)
Brazil and US Government (MoU 2007 – Biofuels)
Binational Energy Working Group – 2011
Brazil and US Government (MoU 2011 – Aviation Biofuels)
MME – DoE : Strategic Energy Dialogue (SED) – 2011
• Bioenergy Action Plan • Mission Innovation (New technologies with private sector)
![Page 3: Ricardo de Gusmao Dornelles: Brazil & the U.S.: Strategic Energy Dialogue](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022030306/586fee191a28ab92198b5b87/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
SED Main Objectives (Biofuels – Area 3)The Parties agreed on the role of the Dialogue in enhancing theU.S.‐Brazil partnership to leverage their countries collective public andprivate sector resources toward the advancement of biofuels.
The Parties opened discussions with a view to:
1. Biofuels Sustainability Analyses;
2. Advanced Biofuels R&D Cooperation;
3. Cooperation in Third‐Party Countries;
4. Regular exchange of information on biofuels production and market.
![Page 4: Ricardo de Gusmao Dornelles: Brazil & the U.S.: Strategic Energy Dialogue](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022030306/586fee191a28ab92198b5b87/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Brazil: Ethanol Market Perspectives
• Between a third and a half of fuels demand for light vehicles in Brazil is ethanol (anhydrous or hydrous);
• Hydrous ethanol plays a key role in our market providing demand / supply equilibrium.
• Hydrous ethanol volumes will remain superior in comparison with anhydrous in mid‐term perspectives;
• Even with ethanol expansion considered, we forecast a fuel gap opportunity of 1.85 billion gallons of gasoline eq. (2024).
Estimated Fuel Gap
million m³
![Page 5: Ricardo de Gusmao Dornelles: Brazil & the U.S.: Strategic Energy Dialogue](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022030306/586fee191a28ab92198b5b87/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Brazil: Blending and Tax Differentiation Brazil is using ethanol mixture
above 20% (E20) for 39 years.
Government controlled fuel prices until Jan/02.
Since 2002, fuels have free prices in the whole chain of production and commercialization in Brazil.
In Brazil, federal taxation always kept differentiation between gasoline and ethanol as a State Policy.
![Page 6: Ricardo de Gusmao Dornelles: Brazil & the U.S.: Strategic Energy Dialogue](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022030306/586fee191a28ab92198b5b87/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
US: Ethanol Market PerspectivesThe US Ethanol industry will face constrained growth due to:
Domestic ethanol market is limited by the “blend wall”
Domestic ethanol consumption is mainly in the form of lower blends with gasoline (E10)
No substantial growth can be expected in the short run in the consumption of E15 and E85
Potential for ethanol exports expansion seems limited for next years
Considering this, what about… New international markets for ethanol fuel?
US blend wall review or incentives to E15 and E85?
![Page 7: Ricardo de Gusmao Dornelles: Brazil & the U.S.: Strategic Energy Dialogue](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022030306/586fee191a28ab92198b5b87/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Brazil/US Ethanol Trade BalanceBillion liters R$/US$
![Page 8: Ricardo de Gusmao Dornelles: Brazil & the U.S.: Strategic Energy Dialogue](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022030306/586fee191a28ab92198b5b87/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Ethanol Exports DestinationUS Exports (2015*): 630 mi Gallons
Both countries are trying to diversify ethanol exports
Other destinations to Brazilian ethanol exports included 27 countries (2015)
* Jan‐Sep/2015
Brazil Exports (2014): 370 mi Gallons
Brazil Exports (2015): 500 mi Gallons
![Page 9: Ricardo de Gusmao Dornelles: Brazil & the U.S.: Strategic Energy Dialogue](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022030306/586fee191a28ab92198b5b87/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Despite diversification, ethanol trade is not growing...
Billion litersBilateral trade (US‐Brazil) corresponds to a third of
total volumes
![Page 10: Ricardo de Gusmao Dornelles: Brazil & the U.S.: Strategic Energy Dialogue](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022030306/586fee191a28ab92198b5b87/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Bioenergy Global Scenario
The Renewable Energies were responsible for 19.1% of global energy consumption in 2013.
Modern renewable energy participation has increased to 10.1%.
Traditional biomass accounted for 9%, the same as 2012.
Although its recent growth, biofuels count only for 0.8% of
global energy supply
IEA estimates that fossil fuels share in 2035 will be reduced to 75%.
![Page 11: Ricardo de Gusmao Dornelles: Brazil & the U.S.: Strategic Energy Dialogue](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022030306/586fee191a28ab92198b5b87/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
What’s Happening Today?
• 62 countries have different biofuels mandates(biodiesel and ethanol)
• Of the global fuel market (in volume):
2013 Global Ethanol Share 6,9%
Ethanol Share (Mandates' Average) 8,7%
Global Biodiesel Share 1,4%
It seems a lot, but…
Volumes of gasoline and diesel: EIA DOE Stats ‐ BP Statistical Review of World Energy (2013) – Elaboration MME (2014)
![Page 12: Ricardo de Gusmao Dornelles: Brazil & the U.S.: Strategic Energy Dialogue](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022030306/586fee191a28ab92198b5b87/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Trends for bioenergy and a green economy…G7 Climate Commitment Last year, G7 agreed to support
reduction between 40% and 70% of emissions until 2050 (base 2010)...
How2Guide for BioenergyInternational Energy Agency initiative launched in 2015
CoP‐21: Long‐term global goal for net zero emissions. Countries have promised to try to bring global emissions down from peak levels as soon as possible. More significantly, they pledged “to achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources”.
![Page 13: Ricardo de Gusmao Dornelles: Brazil & the U.S.: Strategic Energy Dialogue](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022030306/586fee191a28ab92198b5b87/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Final Remarks
Government mission is to take care of fuel markets pursuing adequate conditions of regular supply and quality standards;
Brazil and US are engaged at defending, in all forums abroad, biofuels and bioenergy as sustainable alternatives for transport and energy sectors;
Brazil and US are also working hard to open new markets for biofuels as one of the key instruments to tackle the climate change challenge. Under COP 21 conclusions, there is a clear opportunity to foster bioenergy projects.
![Page 14: Ricardo de Gusmao Dornelles: Brazil & the U.S.: Strategic Energy Dialogue](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022030306/586fee191a28ab92198b5b87/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Thanks for your attention
Ricardo DornellesHead of Renewable Fuels Department
New Orleans, February 2016
Ministry of Mines and EnergySecretary of Oil, Natural Gas and Renewable Fuels